http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

This sort of thing is happening to many other animals, but for different reasons. These may vary from habitat destruction, human encroachment and hunting, but far less obvious, but equally destructive is increased human use of breeding sites and feeding locations. Not to end there, is the habitat moderation that continues 24/7 by domestic and feral animals, but probably worst of all are the introduced predators, which in Australia kill millions of native species everyday. The overall destruction is horrific, yet much could be averted, were not the indigenous flora and fauna valued more highly, rather than being regarded as disposable and unimportant.

Elephants need lots of space, as you’d expect, and their habitat is shrinking all the time.

Bubblecar said:

Elephants need lots of space, as you’d expect, and their habitat is shrinking all the time.

I think the illicit ivory trade is the main reason for their demise.

Bubblecar said:

Elephants need lots of space, as you’d expect, and their habitat is shrinking all the time.

Elephants need to consume alot of food per day as interestingly they don’t digest the foods consumed particularly well and therefore need to graze all day to keep up with their nutrition requirements.

The need to enter villages for a food source to supplement their diet relates to your comment of course.

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

Their estimation calculation needs work…

poikilotherm said:

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

Their estimation calculation needs work…

Seems OK to me. What’s the problem with it?

PermeateFree said:

Bubblecar said:

Elephants need lots of space, as you’d expect, and their habitat is shrinking all the time.

I think the illicit ivory trade is the main reason for their demise.

I remember reading a proposal to 3D print elephant tusks and rhino horns with the genetic markers required to pass testing and flood the market with them and hopefully devalue them to the point that people were less inclined to kill to acquire them.

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

Let’s see. African elephant numbers were 600,000 in 1990 and 700,000 in 2014.
Is that a 30% decline?

> with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed

Which countries were those?

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), is the lead scientist of the Great Elephant Census, (GEC) an ambitious project to count all of Africa’s savannah elephants — from the air.
Before the GEC, total elephant numbers were largely guesswork. But over the past two years, 90 scientists and 286 crew have taken to the air above 18 African countries, flying the equivalent of the distance to the moon — and a quarter of the way back — in almost 10,000 hours.

Prior to European colonization, scientists believe that Africa may have held as many as 20 million elephants; by 1979 only 1.3 million remained — and the census reveals that things have gotten far worse.
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ, Africa’s savannah elephant population has been devastated, with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed — far lower than previous estimates.
Three countries with significant elephant populations were not included in the study. Namibia did not release figures to the GEC, and surveys in South Sudan and the Central African Republic were postponed due to armed conflict.
In seven years between 2007 and 2014, numbers plummeted by at least 30%, or 144,000 elephants.
—-

Let’s see. African elephant numbers were 600,000 in 1990 and 700,000 in 2014.
Is that a 30% decline?

> with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed

Which countries were those?

You’ll get all you need to know and more by going to PeerJ and reading the actual article. here

poikilotherm said:

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/africa/great-elephant-census/index.html

Chase, the
According to the GEC, released Thursday in the open-access journal PeerJ,
—-

Let’s see. African elephant numbers were 600,000 in 1990 and 700,000 in 2014.
Is that a 30% decline?

> with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed

Which countries were those?

You’ll get all you need to know and more by going to PeerJ and reading the actual article. here

Ta, will read.

In the meantime, I don’t understand elephant poaching. The trade in ivory was banned worldwide in 1989. And elephant tusks are not like drugs, you can’t smuggle elephant tusks out of the country hidden on your person. So why the poaching.

By way of contrast, I do understand gorilla poaching. Catching antelope is legal and occasionally gorillas get accidentally caught in an antelope trap. That’s the why of gorilla poaching. But why elephant?

mollwollfumble said:

poikilotherm said:

mollwollfumble said:

Let’s see. African elephant numbers were 600,000 in 1990 and 700,000 in 2014.
Is that a 30% decline?

> with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed

Which countries were those?

You’ll get all you need to know and more by going to PeerJ and reading the actual article. here

Ta, will read.

In the meantime, I don’t understand elephant poaching. The trade in ivory was banned worldwide in 1989. And elephant tusks are not like drugs, you can’t smuggle elephant tusks out of the country hidden on your person. So why the poaching.

By way of contrast, I do understand gorilla poaching. Catching antelope is legal and occasionally gorillas get accidentally caught in an antelope trap. That’s the why of gorilla poaching. But why elephant?

Aren’t they used in traditional medicine and aphrodisiac potions which would possibly work by some sort of placebo effect. Also people being people would probably see it as some sort of status symbol to show just how far they have come in society

mollwollfumble said:

poikilotherm said:

mollwollfumble said:

Let’s see. African elephant numbers were 600,000 in 1990 and 700,000 in 2014.
Is that a 30% decline?

> with just 352,271 animals in the countries surveyed

Which countries were those?

You’ll get all you need to know and more by going to PeerJ and reading the actual article. here

Ta, will read.

In the meantime, I don’t understand elephant poaching. The trade in ivory was banned worldwide in 1989. And elephant tusks are not like drugs, you can’t smuggle elephant tusks out of the country hidden on your person. So why the poaching.

By way of contrast, I do understand gorilla poaching. Catching antelope is legal and occasionally gorillas get accidentally caught in an antelope trap. That’s the why of gorilla poaching. But why elephant?

It’s possible to smuggle ivory, in fact, you can smuggle almost anything out of a country, especially a busted arse African one.

poikilotherm said:

mollwollfumble said:

poikilotherm said:

You’ll get all you need to know and more by going to PeerJ and reading the actual article. here

Ta, will read.

In the meantime, I don’t understand elephant poaching. The trade in ivory was banned worldwide in 1989. And elephant tusks are not like drugs, you can’t smuggle elephant tusks out of the country hidden on your person. So why the poaching.

By way of contrast, I do understand gorilla poaching. Catching antelope is legal and occasionally gorillas get accidentally caught in an antelope trap. That’s the why of gorilla poaching. But why elephant?

It’s possible to smuggle ivory, in fact, you can smuggle almost anything out of a country, especially a busted arse African one.

1/3 of the yearly world economics is illegal trade, smuggling, etc, worth trillions

From paper:

“The GEC focused on savannah elephants because of the relative ease of counting these animals from the air”.
That’s smart.

“Privately funded surveys were conducted in Namibia, but the Namibian government did not release data to GEC organizers.”
Not happy about that.

“(1) use of the latest technology such as GPS receivers, digital cameras to verify herd counts, voice recorders to document observations, and laser altimeters to ensure that flight altitudes were within standards; (2) adherence to specified flight parameters (height, speed, search rate) to reduce the likelihood of observers’ missing elephants during surveys; (3) sound survey design, including appropriate stratification and full coverage of study areas; (4) use of experienced, well-trained crews as well as survey schedules that minimized crew fatigue; and (5) appropriate analytic methods for estimating elephant populations and carcass ratios.”
Good.

“ GEC surveys also counted elephant carcasses. Dead elephants remain visible for several years after dying, so the “carcass ratio,” the number of dead elephants divided by the sum of live + dead elephants, should be correlated with recent mortality rates”
Good.

“Survey teams also counted other large and medium-sized mammal species, including livestock. In some ecosystems, teams counted large birds such as ostrich (Struthio camelus) or southern ground-hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri).”

Even better. Provides an independent check on accuracy, a way to stop observers from falling asleep, and information on numbers of other large mammals and ostriches.

“Most surveys were conducted during the local dry season”
Good.

“Trend calculation used data only from sites with at least two population estimates, including the GEC, since 1995.”
Good.

Figure 1 directly contradicts the table above it. In the table above, the survey area in Botswana is half that in Ethiopia, but in the figure the survey area in Botswana is twice that in Ethiopia.

Summary so far, whoever designed this survey has more than half a brain. Nearly everything that could be done has been done. I’d like to have seen wider survey areas in some countries, particularly Botswana, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

Cymek said:

poikilotherm said:

mollwollfumble said:

Ta, will read.

In the meantime, I don’t understand elephant poaching. The trade in ivory was banned worldwide in 1989. And elephant tusks are not like drugs, you can’t smuggle elephant tusks out of the country hidden on your person. So why the poaching.

By way of contrast, I do understand gorilla poaching. Catching antelope is legal and occasionally gorillas get accidentally caught in an antelope trap. That’s the why of gorilla poaching. But why elephant?

It’s possible to smuggle ivory, in fact, you can smuggle almost anything out of a country, especially a busted arse African one.

1/3 of the yearly world economics is illegal trade, smuggling, etc, worth trillions

But, according to a recent SBS documentary, most of that is drug smuggling into the USA which, because of seizure of drug moneys, ends up propping up the US economy to the tune of many billions of dollars.

mollwollfumble said:

Cymek said:

poikilotherm said:

It’s possible to smuggle ivory, in fact, you can smuggle almost anything out of a country, especially a busted arse African one.

1/3 of the yearly world economics is illegal trade, smuggling, etc, worth trillions

But, according to a recent SBS documentary, most of that is drug smuggling into the USA which, because of seizure of drug moneys, ends up propping up the US economy to the tune of many billions of dollars.

Yes I do wonder about that myself, money in WA from illegal drug selling is confiscated to the crown which is a nice little side earner

mollwollfumble said:

But, according to a recent SBS documentary, most of that is drug smuggling into the USA which, because of seizure of drug moneys, ends up propping up the US economy to the tune of many billions of dollars.

The USA’s budget deficit is approximately 450 billion dollars per annum. Those drug barons need to lift their game.

mollwollfumble said:

Cymek said:

poikilotherm said:

It’s possible to smuggle ivory, in fact, you can smuggle almost anything out of a country, especially a busted arse African one.

1/3 of the yearly world economics is illegal trade, smuggling, etc, worth trillions

But, according to a recent SBS documentary, most of that is drug smuggling into the USA which, because of seizure of drug moneys, ends up propping up the US economy to the tune of many billions of dollars.

Well, yes, but that doesn’t discount the fact that ivory is smuggled and sold around the world, just not on the scale of illicit drugs.

“GEC surveys also recorded 201 poachers’ camps and an estimated 3.39 million head of livestock within GEC study areas.”

Yike, for the poacher’s camps.

Carcasses ratios tell a shocking story, but one that’s too complicated for me to read. Some countries it’s easier to read the carcas ratios than others. Does a lack of fresh carcasses mean that fresh carcasses are rapidly cut up for bush meat, rapidly eaten by wild predators or does it mean a very low death rate? No two countries have the same ratio of live elephants to fresh carcasses to old carcasses. Shockingly high ratios of carcasses to live animals are found in “Cameroon (83%), Mozambique (32%), Angola (30%), and Tanzania (26%), suggesting declining populations”.

“Estimated densities were 0.44 elephants km−2 in protected areas and 0.23 km−2 in unprotected areas.” “fresh-carcass ratios were 0.5 ± 0.05% in protected areas and 1.2 ± 0.2% in unprotected areas.”
OK.

Population trends are also shocking. Peak in about 2007. Shocking loss of elephants in at least four countries, Cameroon, Mozambique, Chad, Tanzania. The only real reason Chad doesn’t appear on the high carcass ratio list above is that almost all the elephants there were killed off early, prior to 2010. Thank goodness for Botswana, but keep in mind that “good” through all this is synonymous with “stable population”, not “increasing population”.

“Namibia was the only country with a large savannah elephant population that was not a part of the GEC. Large-scale surveys conducted in Namibia in 2015 produced an estimate of 22,711 elephants (CITES, 2016). When added to the 352,271 elephants estimated on the GEC, this leads to a total estimate of 374,982 “
With a standard deviation of 9,000.

The thread title of 30% is misleading because 2007 was the peak year for elephant numbers. An alternative title that is equally accurate would be: “no change in African Savannah Elephant numbers in 15 years”.

mollwollfumble said:

. An alternative title that is equally accurate would be: “no change in African Savannah Elephant numbers in 15 years”.

Provide a source for that.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

. An alternative title that is equally accurate would be: “no change in African Savannah Elephant numbers in 15 years”.

Provide a source for that.

At a guess, moll might be indicating that both headlines are inaccurate.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

. An alternative title that is equally accurate would be: “no change in African Savannah Elephant numbers in 15 years”.

Provide a source for that.

I don’t have a source, but I do vaguely recall excessive elephant numbers being regarded as a problem in the recent past.

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

The Rev Dodgson said:

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

And all that with a life span of 70 years.

Okay, well it was at 10 million in the early 20th century, 1.3 million in 1979, 0.5 million in 2007, 0.35 million in 2014. I suppose there could have been some time in the recent past when the number of elephants was so high as to be problematic (presumably much much higher than the 10 million that their ought to be) but it seems unlikely.

The Rev Dodgson said:

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

With poaching, the degree of activity will vary for many reasons from place to place, therefore overall statistics are likely to be very misleading.

PermeateFree said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

With poaching, the degree of activity will vary for many reasons from place to place, therefore overall statistics are likely to be very misleading.

The strong downward long term trend is pretty undeniable, though. This is the most comprehensive and rigorous elephant survey ever completed in Africa, and they’ll be able to use the same methodology in future to keep a consistent track on numbers.

dv said:

PermeateFree said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

With poaching, the degree of activity will vary for many reasons from place to place, therefore overall statistics are likely to be very misleading.

The strong downward long term trend is pretty undeniable, though. This is the most comprehensive and rigorous elephant survey ever completed in Africa, and they’ll be able to use the same methodology in future to keep a consistent track on numbers.

I think that is undeniable.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

. An alternative title that is equally accurate would be: “no change in African Savannah Elephant numbers in 15 years”.

Provide a source for that.

The technical paper poikilotherm linked above, figure 2.
https://peerj.com/articles/2354/

dv said:

PermeateFree said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

According to the Internet, over the last 20 years or so African Elephant numbers have been either steadily increasing, steadily declining, or about constant.

HTH.

With poaching, the degree of activity will vary for many reasons from place to place, therefore overall statistics are likely to be very misleading.

The strong downward long term trend is pretty undeniable, though. This is the most comprehensive and rigorous elephant survey ever completed in Africa, and they’ll be able to use the same methodology in future to keep a consistent track on numbers.

The strong downward short term trend is pretty undeniable.

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

PermeateFree said:

With poaching, the degree of activity will vary for many reasons from place to place, therefore overall statistics are likely to be very misleading.

The strong downward long term trend is pretty undeniable, though. This is the most comprehensive and rigorous elephant survey ever completed in Africa, and they’ll be able to use the same methodology in future to keep a consistent track on numbers.

The strong downward short term trend is pretty undeniable.

Nah they’ve dropped by 97% in 100 years, that’s a solid trend.

Cymek said:

PermeateFree said:

Bubblecar said:

Elephants need lots of space, as you’d expect, and their habitat is shrinking all the time.

I think the illicit ivory trade is the main reason for their demise.

I remember reading a proposal to 3D print elephant tusks and rhino horns with the genetic markers required to pass testing and flood the market with them and hopefully devalue them to the point that people were less inclined to kill to acquire them.

excellent idea

the russians are digging up mammoth tusks and selling them

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

The strong downward long term trend is pretty undeniable, though. This is the most comprehensive and rigorous elephant survey ever completed in Africa, and they’ll be able to use the same methodology in future to keep a consistent track on numbers.

The strong downward short term trend is pretty undeniable.

Nah they’ve dropped by 97% in 100 years, that’s a solid trend.

Don’t know that source, elephant numbers have greatly increased in some African countries over the past 50 years. eg. Botswana and Zimbabwe.

“There are at least 161 known extinct elephant species.”
Now that’s a solid long term trend.