We are two months out from the next NZ election, and it looks like it might be a close one.

Current polling suggests the following count out of the 120 seats.

Nationals 42
ACT 12

Labour 40
Greens 14
Maori 5

New Zealand First 7

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ACT and Nationals are the two major right of centre parties.

NZF is a libertarian populist party that historically has formed coalitions with both Labour and the Nationals, but the boffin are saying that they are more likely to link.with Nats this time.

Greens and Maori are expected to support Labour to form government.

So bottom line is that right now a National led coalition is at about 61 and a Labour led coalition is at about 59.