Bogsnorkler said:

Carrick Ryan

“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.” – Karl Marx

Many have posited whether Trump is at risk of stumbling into another Iraq War, or maybe even a Vietnam, but I think the more accurate parallel is more recent.

Trump clearly admires the Russian President for a litany of reasons, in my view primarily due to his infatuation with the concept of power and his erroneous conflation of fear with respect. But it feels like he has instead emulated his idols’ greatest geostrategic blunder.

While Trump’s military campaign against Iran is fundamentally different to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in many ways, the similarities are striking enough to acknowledge.

Both were intended to be decisive military campaigns that were expected to achieve a favourable regime change within a few days… both motivated by Machiavellian geostrategic objectives, shrouding the official justification of an intolerable provocation that could never be clearly articulated.

Both wars were begun by self-declared nationalists that genuinely believed in the absolute supremacy of their nation, both militarily and socially, while failing to understand the true source of their nation’s strengths, or their vulnerabilities.
Crucially, Both leaders had purged their cabinet of anyone that might push back on their decisions, let alone defy their absurd aspirations.

Both men are clearly convinced of their own omnipotence, and to publicly question their genius has become a career limiting act for anyone in the public service of either nation. This promotion of loyalty as a virtue above all others has induced a paralyses within institutions that might have otherwise effectively warned of the ensuing dangers.
Both appear to sincerely believe in their own mythology, as well as the mythology they propagate about the capabilities of their military. Thus, both have attributed early failures to the incompetence of Generals, rather than the futility of their directives.

Both have now fallen into a trap where they must now win the war they started, no matter the cost. Because any admission of fallibility erodes a narrative that demands no oversight and no accountability.

They both believe that the humiliation of retreat, at this point, would be intolerable… not just for themselves, but for the nation they have wrapped their identity in.

Both these men promised to return their nations to greatness while ushering in a sinister kind of Christian Nationalism… and a foreign war that never needed to be fought.

Yet, as insane, belligerent, or dangerous as they both became to the whole world, there is still genuine broad support for both in their home nations; facilitated by an indoctrinated patriotism that has been systematically training their children for decades to fall into line once the first shot is fired.

Both have convinced a large domestic cohort to hold grievances for the perceived persecution at the hands of the international community, with a deep suspicion of international institutions and indifference to international law. To this end, the revision of history has become a national obsession.

Both have self-inflicted a festering wound upon their nations that risk bringing their empires to its knees. They have isolated their people, and turned themselves into international pariahs, and decimated a global economy that relies on stability to prosper.

But, it must be acknowledged, with a four year headstart, Putin has waded far deeper into his quagmire than Trump currently stands. Trump still has the ability to retreat if he can be pulled back to safety by those around him, even if he resists his salvation.

If he doesn’t, if he drags his country deeper into the trap he’s created for himself, then the consequences could be far graver than battlefield losses. While Russia was already an authoritarian state before Putin launched his “Special Military Operation”, the panic and anxiety of a costly and unpopular war precipitated a terrifying descent into totalitarianism.

If Trump’s own special military operation deteriorates further into the protracted and painful war that many foresee, it would provide the legal and political cover to tighten his control over the media while exploiting the raft of extraordinary emergency powers usually afforded to war time Presidents. The longer this war continues, the greater the threat it poses to the future of US democracy.

Unlike Moscow in February 2022, there remains within Washington the institutional levers to halt the escalation spiral before it’s too late. If Trump is not offered his face saving off-ramp by an Iranian regime that can taste historic victory, then he will proceed without breaking, careering down a dangerous road with countless blind corners and fatal wrong turns.

Trump has never once been compelled to endure the consequences of his own actions. At 79, and in observably declining health, he may still avoid the consequences of these actions… but the country he leaves behind will not be granted the same absolution.

CNN review of the polls shows Trump,. underwater, at -60