Bump!

;)

Bump.

Bumping don’t work like that

dv said:

Bumping don’t work like that

New rules for a new world.

dv said:

Bumping don’t work like that

But grinding does.

Michael V said:

dv said:

Bumping don’t work like that

But grinding does.

It’s a great shame that something so important is treated so lightly. Still probably too late to worry now, but would love to be a fly on the wall when it does eventually sink in.

PermeateFree said:

Michael V said:

dv said:

Bumping don’t work like that

But grinding does.

It’s a great shame that something so important is treated so lightly. Still probably too late to worry now, but would love to be a fly on the wall when it does eventually sink in.

Yeah, it is. I gave up worrying about it several years ago. Probably 12 years. When I realised it was a headlong rush into the abyss, like the infamous (but wronged, lied about) lemmings. I could do nothing about it. Tribes had already formed. I could angst forever and end up dying of some disease from my worry, or relinquish control, relinquish control and worry less.

Michael V said:

PermeateFree said:

Michael V said:

But grinding does.

It’s a great shame that something so important is treated so lightly. Still probably too late to worry now, but would love to be a fly on the wall when it does eventually sink in.

Yeah, it is. I gave up worrying about it several years ago. Probably 12 years. When I realised it was a headlong rush into the abyss, like the infamous (but wronged, lied about) lemmings. I could do nothing about it. Tribes had already formed. I could angst forever and end up dying of some disease from my worry, or relinquish control, relinquish control and worry less.

I don’t worry about it either, but I must admit knowing there is no escape for all these deniers is satisfying. I am just so sick of all the needless destruction of this magnificent planet so that some people can massage their egos, live in a bigger house and afford a faster more flashy car, etc. I really have no time for these people, they are just parasites.

year	population	increase
2010	6985603105	87297197
2011	7073125425	87522320
2012	7161697921	88572496
2013	7250593370	88895449
2014	7339013419	88420049
2015	7426597537	87584118
2016	7513474238	86876701
2017	7599822404	86348166
2018	7683789828	83967424
2019	7764951032	81161204
2020	7840952880	76001848
2021	7909295151	68342271
2022	7975105156	65810005
2023	8045311447	70206291

There appears to have been some recovery in population growth, as you’d expect in the “post-pandemic” era.

So I’ve taken a look at the most recent UN population prospects booklet and it is quite amazing how fast these projections have come down.
I checked this because a Wikipedia article was a little out of date, with a lede based on data from 2017.
At that time, population was growing at 1.1% p.a., whereas it has now settled at 0.8% p.a. (having briefly dipped to 0.6% at the height of the pandemic.)

The UN’s current projection is that the population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. In their 2017 report, they projected it would be around 11 billion in 2100 and still growing. Their population and birth rate projections for the current year were over-estimates in all continents.

Blame The Lockdowns And School Closures

dv said:

So I’ve taken a look at the most recent UN population prospects booklet and it is quite amazing how fast these projections have come down.
I checked this because a Wikipedia article was a little out of date, with a lede based on data from 2017.
At that time, population was growing at 1.1% p.a., whereas it has now settled at 0.8% p.a. (having briefly dipped to 0.6% at the height of the pandemic.)

The UN’s current projection is that the population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. In their 2017 report, they projected it would be around 11 billion in 2100 and still growing. Their population and birth rate projections for the current year were over-estimates in all continents.

Well that’s good.

But I think the unreliability of forward projections of something like population should be recognised.

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

So I’ve taken a look at the most recent UN population prospects booklet and it is quite amazing how fast these projections have come down.
I checked this because a Wikipedia article was a little out of date, with a lede based on data from 2017.
At that time, population was growing at 1.1% p.a., whereas it has now settled at 0.8% p.a. (having briefly dipped to 0.6% at the height of the pandemic.)

The UN’s current projection is that the population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. In their 2017 report, they projected it would be around 11 billion in 2100 and still growing. Their population and birth rate projections for the current year were over-estimates in all continents.

Well that’s good.

But I think the unreliability of forward projections of something like population should be recognised.

As opposed to the reliability of forward projections of something like weather.

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

So I’ve taken a look at the most recent UN population prospects booklet and it is quite amazing how fast these projections have come down.
I checked this because a Wikipedia article was a little out of date, with a lede based on data from 2017.
At that time, population was growing at 1.1% p.a., whereas it has now settled at 0.8% p.a. (having briefly dipped to 0.6% at the height of the pandemic.)

The UN’s current projection is that the population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. In their 2017 report, they projected it would be around 11 billion in 2100 and still growing. Their population and birth rate projections for the current year were over-estimates in all continents.

Well that’s good.

But I think the unreliability of forward projections of something like population should be recognised.

I do recognise this and indeed the very facts that I am mentioning are evidence of this unreliability. The UN’s 2017 projections for 2024 were way over, even allowing for Covid surprise.

The sharp drop in China’s birth rate was factor but almost all of subsaharan Africa also took hits to the Total Fertility Rate. One that slipped under me radar was Bangladesh: already has a TFR of 1.9, well below replacement.
Global TFR is likely to be at or below replacement by 2030 at which point any further increases are because of “demographic momentum”: the breedin’ ‘abits of 20 to 30 years ago affect the number of people that will available to have babies over the next decade or two, so even if they are having fewer offspring each, as a group’s output is buoyed by their sheer numbers.

I’ve never really thought about it quite like this.

We’ve been talking about the declining number of births per year. This peaked at 145 million in 2013 and has declined to 133 million.

A corally lorry of this is a decline in the number of young people. The number of people under 5 years old peaked in 2018. The number of people under 15 years old peaked in 2022.