AI can analyze changes in Earth’s magnetic field to predict quakes ‘unprecedentedly early’

Researchers have revealed a radical new use of AI – to predict earthquakes.

more…

Tau.Neutrino said:

AI can analyze changes in Earth’s magnetic field to predict quakes ‘unprecedentedly early’

Researchers have revealed a radical new use of AI – to predict earthquakes.

more…

So it’s an earlier early warning system rather than a means to detect them before they occur.

Cymek said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

AI can analyze changes in Earth’s magnetic field to predict quakes ‘unprecedentedly early’

Researchers have revealed a radical new use of AI – to predict earthquakes.

more…

So it’s an earlier early warning system rather than a means to detect them before they occur.

They will improve upon it, and add it to various systems that are already working together, there are a growing number of technologies for earthquake prediction, mollwollfumble said around 50 percent go undetected in their early phase, anything that can fill that gap is needed.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Cymek said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

AI can analyze changes in Earth’s magnetic field to predict quakes ‘unprecedentedly early’

Researchers have revealed a radical new use of AI – to predict earthquakes.

more…

So it’s an earlier early warning system rather than a means to detect them before they occur.

They will improve upon it, and add it to various systems that are already working together, there are a growing number of technologies for earthquake prediction, mollwollfumble said around 50 percent go undetected in their early phase, anything that can fill that gap is needed.

Most likely, it would interesting to see if it occurs beforehand and could be detected and warnings given, not sure it would be taken seriously though

I think the whole of the geophysics community is now agreed that quakes cannot be predicted.

Which reminds me.

When is “the big one” expected in Los Angeles and San Francisco?

mollwollfumble said:

I think the whole of the geophysics community is now agreed that quakes cannot be predicted.

Which reminds me.

When is “the big one” expected in Los Angeles and San Francisco?

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

I think the whole of the geophysics community is now agreed that quakes cannot be predicted.

Which reminds me.

When is “the big one” expected in Los Angeles and San Francisco?

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

Cymek said:

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

I think the whole of the geophysics community is now agreed that quakes cannot be predicted.

Which reminds me.

When is “the big one” expected in Los Angeles and San Francisco?

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

dv said:

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

To clarify my last point, the declaration by a fellow with a sandwich board or psychic would not be a career ender but by someone with the authority to cause an evacuation would be.

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

dv said:

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

If I was Mayor of LA I’d have special Earthquake only boom gates that came down on all overpasses and bridges preventing traffic from getting on, similar for railway traffic.
It wouldn’t save everyone but it would save enough to justify the modest expense.

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

dv said:

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

Indeed

Peak Warming Man said:

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

If I was Mayor of LA I’d have special Earthquake only boom gates that came down on all overpasses and bridges preventing traffic from getting on, similar for railway traffic.
It wouldn’t save everyone but it would save enough to justify the modest expense.

You would want to use all lanes but one way and open to get out, boom gates would be bottlenecks.

AwesomeO said:

Peak Warming Man said:

AwesomeO said:

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

If I was Mayor of LA I’d have special Earthquake only boom gates that came down on all overpasses and bridges preventing traffic from getting on, similar for railway traffic.
It wouldn’t save everyone but it would save enough to justify the modest expense.

You would want to use all lanes but one way and open to get out, boom gates would be bottlenecks.

No boom gates on exits, you want the people off the dangerous structures.

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

dv said:

“the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.”

That’s about as accurate as you’re going to get. We can speak in terms of probabilities.

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

They may do it anyway but all houses when being built include an arch in it that can be sheltered under, would be cheap, just a reinforced door way, existing houses have the existing rooms audited by the owner to identify the safest spot and everyone encouraged to have a cupboard of zombie supplies.

Peak Warming Man said:

AwesomeO said:

Peak Warming Man said:

If I was Mayor of LA I’d have special Earthquake only boom gates that came down on all overpasses and bridges preventing traffic from getting on, similar for railway traffic.
It wouldn’t save everyone but it would save enough to justify the modest expense.

You would want to use all lanes but one way and open to get out, boom gates would be bottlenecks.

No boom gates on exits, you want the people off the dangerous structures.

Sorry I misunderstood.

sibeen said:

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Fairy nuff, I was fuzzy on the details.

AwesomeO said:

Peak Warming Man said:

AwesomeO said:

You would want to use all lanes but one way and open to get out, boom gates would be bottlenecks.

No boom gates on exits, you want the people off the dangerous structures.

Sorry I misunderstood.

Evacuating in a panic or even not in a panic could cause more deaths as people are out in the open and out and about with the associated dangers

sibeen said:

AwesomeO said:

Cymek said:

The logistics of evacuating a major city would be hard enough to do, let alone getting the authorisation to do so all based on the possibility of an earthquake occurring sometime soon

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Italian scientist: So I made a decision and it was… wrong. It was a bad call, It was a bad call.

Bad call?

These people are dead!, Don’t you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I’m gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You’re not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!

Cymek said:

sibeen said:

AwesomeO said:

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Italian scientist: So I made a decision and it was… wrong. It was a bad call, It was a bad call.

Bad call?

These people are dead!, Don’t you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I’m gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You’re not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!

Weyland Yutani: Building better worlds FTW.

Cymek said:

sibeen said:

AwesomeO said:

It would be a big call and especially in the view of a previous conviction of a warning that never eventuated for an Italian fellow? Prepared to be corrected on the nationality and the type of conviction. But none the less, the declaration if wrong would be a career ender.

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Italian scientist: So I made a decision and it was… wrong. It was a bad call, It was a bad call.

Bad call?

These people are dead!, Don’t you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I’m gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You’re not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!

Yes. Bad call. Engineers make life and death decisions very often. You only don’t hear about them because more than 99.5% of them are good calls. Do they get praised for the good calls, they do not.

mollwollfumble said:

Cymek said:

sibeen said:

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Italian scientist: So I made a decision and it was… wrong. It was a bad call, It was a bad call.

Bad call?

These people are dead!, Don’t you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I’m gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You’re not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!

Yes. Bad call. Engineers make life and death decisions very often. You only don’t hear about them because more than 99.5% of them are good calls. Do they get praised for the good calls, they do not.

99.5?

Jaysus, it is way, way, way higher than that.

mollwollfumble said:

Cymek said:

sibeen said:

The Italian scientist were convicted because they didn’t give a warning.

Italian scientist: So I made a decision and it was… wrong. It was a bad call, It was a bad call.

Bad call?

These people are dead!, Don’t you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I’m gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You’re not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!

Yes. Bad call. Engineers make life and death decisions very often. You only don’t hear about them because more than 99.5% of them are good calls. Do they get praised for the good calls, they do not.

This particular person worked for a company of highly dubious morals, Weyland Yutani who claim to build better worlds but are more interested in profit

There’d be no way to evacuate LA during the few minutes of warning you have between the rupture and the arrival of the earthquake. Best to put efforts into making the city safer in the event of an earthquake, building appropriate shelters etc

dv said:

There’d be no way to evacuate LA during the few minutes of warning you have between the rupture and the arrival of the earthquake. Best to put efforts into making the city safer in the event of an earthquake, building appropriate shelters etc

Logic prevails here.

Should be said that in terms of loss of life, earthquakes are not the major issue in California. In the last fifty years circa 190 people have been killed due to earthquakes in California. Around 150000 Californians have been shot dead during the same period.

dv said:

Should be said that in terms of loss of life, earthquakes are not the major issue in California. In the last fifty years circa 190 people have been killed due to earthquakes in California. Around 150000 Californians have been shot dead during the same period.

True, but if a big one hits that 150,000 could very quickly get dwarfed.

Many years ago I read some tales from the San Fran earthquake from early last century. The most vivid memory I have is reading about a local walloper who was shooting people who were on the top of a building that was engulfed in flames.

dv said:

Should be said that in terms of loss of life, earthquakes are not the major issue in California. In the last fifty years circa 190 people have been killed due to earthquakes in California. Around 150000 Californians have been shot dead during the same period.

Bloody!

Michael V said:

dv said:

Should be said that in terms of loss of life, earthquakes are not the major issue in California. In the last fifty years circa 190 people have been killed due to earthquakes in California. Around 150000 Californians have been shot dead during the same period.

Bloody!

It isn’t simply because they can have and use guns. It is because they are nuts about it.

Michael V said:

dv said:

Should be said that in terms of loss of life, earthquakes are not the major issue in California. In the last fifty years circa 190 people have been killed due to earthquakes in California. Around 150000 Californians have been shot dead during the same period.

Bloody!

I assume that most of those 150,000 are suicides. Or perhaps you’re including Korea and Vietnam wars?

A minimum loss of life expected from a magnitude 7 earthquake in either LA or SanFran would be 6,000 people. For both cities it can’t be counted “the big one” unless the magnitude is at least 7, with a ~5% chance of it being magnitude 8 or greater. If I was a betting person I’d bet on close to 60,000 dead.

The problem in western countries is not loss of life for earthquakes so much as loss of money. Monetary cost. mollwollfumble’s guess is a >50% chance of the cost to either LA or SanFran being greater than $300 billion USD, making it the greatest disaster in USA history (hurricane damage costs up to $125 billion USD). Suicides, on the other hand, cost very little.

Chart of USA-wide suicide deaths, per year.

mollwollfumble said:

I think the whole of the geophysics community is now agreed that quakes cannot be predicted.

I would hope so.

Earthquakes are another version of Schrodinger’s Cat, in that interactions at the quantum level get magnified and result in large scale events at the (literally) global level.

So are the initial interactions in some undecided state until the earthquake is observed?

I don’t think so.

Aren’t you on holidays, Rev?

sibeen said:

Aren’t you on holidays, Rev?

In theory :)