Can the ALP win control of the Senate at the next election?
Na.
I mean I suppose nothing is impossible but this would require a result at a half Senate election more extreme than anything seen before. One of those 1 in 1000 things.
Can the ALP plus Greens or other progressive parties together get more than half of the Senate? That is, at least 39 Senate seats?
It’s a reach, but maybe.
At the moment, the parties of the left holds 35 Senate positions, the right holds 37, and 4 are held by those that I’m calling “mixed or central”: Storer, Central Alliance, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.
Of the 36 Senate seats that are not up for election in 2019, the left holds 16, the right holds 18, and the centre holds 2.
Of the 40 Senate seats up for grabs in 2019, the left holds 19, the right holds 19, and the centre holds 2.
So the parties of the left would need to win 23 out of the 40 Senate seats available in 2019. This would be unprecedented: the high water mark to date would be 21 out of 40, obtained for instance in 2007.
There is a fuzzy correlation between voting in the HoR and in the Senate. In 2007, the ALP got 52.7% 2PP in the House. “If an election were held today” we’d expect the ALP to get more like 54% based on current polling. Is that enough?
To get to 23, we would probably need the left to get 4 seats in three states, 3 seats in three states, and 1 in each territory. The Greens can reasonably dream of snaffling an ACT Senate seat: if that happens, the left would only need 4 seats in two states.
Historically, if a party gets 54.5% of the 2PP in the HoR in a particular state, then usually either their “side” broadly defined wins 4 of the 6 seats, or they get 3, the other side gets 2, and a central candidate gets the remaining seat. It really just depends on whether there is a strong central candidate in play. Unused votes tend to flow from the right to the centre rather than the left (and vice versa).
Using that as a benchmark, the left’s best shot based on current polling would be in Tasmania, South Australia and Victoria, and if things got a bit better for the ALP, New South Wales. I would think there’s no significant chance of obtaining four seats in Queensland or Western Australia.In South Australia, however, a strong central elements exist. SA Best got 19% of the South Australian LC vote this year: their federal wing (Central Alliance) should easily pick up a Senate seat. I don’t think four for the left is on the cards in SA.
Thanks to the 2016 Electoral Act changes, there’s a lot less random bullshit to factor in but there are still some major unknowns. DHJP obtained 6% of the Senate vote in Victoria in 2016. They only got 4% in the recent Victorian LC elections, and their success at obtaining seats was largely down to microparty preference hoovering that won’t apply at the federal stage. DHJP occupies an unusual position in politics in that they have some values in common with the ALP but at the same time it is possible that parties of the right fringe might preference DHJP over Liberal. Could very well be a nice three cornered pitney there but in any case it does lower confidence that the ALP and Greens could pick up 4 seats.
Based on present polling, I would predict the ALP+Greens to hold 37 Senate seats after the 2019 election, with the slim chance of reaching 39 depending on two of the following three unlikely things happening: winning a 4th in Victoria, winning a 4th in NSW and winning 2 in ACT.
On the other hand, the election is 6 months away and there’s a non-zero chance that things will deteriorate for the government, or that the polls are off for some reason. If the ALP led the 2PP 55.5% – 44.5% then I’d give the left an even chance of controlling the Senate.
