Recently I asked dv why he liked https://www.yr.no/ He seemed to imply that he’d trust his phone to tell him what may save his life in a canyon in perhaps Australia (not necessarily at this time of year but this is when the statements were made).
OK I picked this location because I happen to know it’s weather very well.

At a site I know and trust to differ from BOM in forecasts but otherwise be exact to BOM on stats.
Updated at 21:50 EDT
PAST 24 HOURS
35.3°C
Feels like 33.5°C

roughbarked said:

Recently I asked dv why he liked https://www.yr.no/ He seemed to imply that he’d trust his phone to tell him what may save his life in a canyon in perhaps Australia (not necessarily at this time of year but this is when the statements were made).
OK I picked this location because I happen to know it’s weather very well.

At a site I know and trust to differ from BOM in forecasts but otherwise be exact to BOM on stats.
Updated at 21:50 EDT
PAST 24 HOURS
35.3°C
Feels like 33.5°C

In fact,

I’m sure that BOM is most probably the top hit site in Australia anyway but we have so many choices and they all seem to play a slightly different tune.

That “feels like” is something of a croc.

For starters, it ignores the difference you feel in temperature between standing in the sun and standing in the shade. More significantly, it ignores how clothing affects evaporation.

Let’s hope that BOM have got tomorrow wrong.

The prediction is for 43 degrees here tomorrow, and 29 overnight tonight.

lol

poikilotherm said:

lol

If they can’t get actual current statistics correct then I can’t trust them.

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

lol

If they can’t get actual current statistics correct then I can’t trust them.

Would you like a biscuit for your efforts?

You do realise it’s a weather forecasting model, so it forecasts, it’s utility to tell you what’s happening right now, is…pointless.

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

lol

If they can’t get actual current statistics correct then I can’t trust them.

Would you like a biscuit for your efforts?

You do realise it’s a weather forecasting model, so it forecasts, it’s utility to tell you what’s happening right now, is…pointless.

It’s forecasts have no truth in them either.

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

If they can’t get actual current statistics correct then I can’t trust them.

Would you like a biscuit for your efforts?

You do realise it’s a weather forecasting model, so it forecasts, it’s utility to tell you what’s happening right now, is…pointless.

It’s forecasts have no truth in them either.

yes dear.

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

Would you like a biscuit for your efforts?

You do realise it’s a weather forecasting model, so it forecasts, it’s utility to tell you what’s happening right now, is…pointless.

It’s forecasts have no truth in them either.

yes dear.

I’ll keep watching but from what I’ve seen so far, I could not use it to make life concerning decisions.

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

It’s forecasts have no truth in them either.

yes dear.

I’ll keep watching but from what I’ve seen so far, I could not use it to make life concerning decisions.

Yea, you’d know, from doing such things so often…

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

It’s forecasts have no truth in them either.

yes dear.

I’ll keep watching but from what I’ve seen so far, I could not use it to make life concerning decisions.

How do forecasts line up with actual daily readings?

Do you have histories of forecasts and daily readings to compare them?

Tau.Neutrino said:

roughbarked said:

poikilotherm said:

yes dear.

I’ll keep watching but from what I’ve seen so far, I could not use it to make life concerning decisions.

How do forecasts line up with actual daily readings?

Do you have histories of forecasts and daily readings to compare them?

It is a simple matter to keep records. Some of them are already in this thread.

roughbarked said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

roughbarked said:

I’ll keep watching but from what I’ve seen so far, I could not use it to make life concerning decisions.

How do forecasts line up with actual daily readings?

Do you have histories of forecasts and daily readings to compare them?

It is a simple matter to keep records. Some of them are already in this thread.

For the past two and a half days, an hour by hour comparison of predictions vs observations can be found on https://www.willyweather.com.au/graphs.html?graph=outlook:5,location:13960,series=order:0,id:sunrisesunset,type:forecast,series=order:1,id:temperature,type:forecast,station:736,series=order:2,id:temperature
if that helps.

mollwollfumble said:

roughbarked said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

How do forecasts line up with actual daily readings?

Do you have histories of forecasts and daily readings to compare them?

It is a simple matter to keep records. Some of them are already in this thread.

For the past two and a half days, an hour by hour comparison of predictions vs observations can be found on https://www.willyweather.com.au/graphs.html?graph=outlook:5,location:13960,series=order:0,id:sunrisesunset,type:forecast,series=order:1,id:temperature,type:forecast,station:736,series=order:2,id:temperature
if that helps.

Thanks. I do have a number of weather sites I check and compare. This can go in that folder as well.

most times that people think that the forecast is wrong is really because they don’t understand the method nor the terminology used.

Just hit 40 in Melbourne, 37 in my shed in Geelong.
Apparently were all going to die according to mainstream media.
Hottest summer day since last hot summer day etc.

Just seems like summer to me. :)

I will say that the radar for the https://www.yr.no/place/ is very good.

roughbarked said:

I will say that the radar for the https://www.yr.no/place/ is very good.

Spot on actually.