https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
Could we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
Who would you hit with it?
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
I bags not being on the edges of the path. In the middle, like ground zero, fine. Instant obliteration. But I don’t want to be on the edges. And I don’t think I want to be trying to live in the aftermath, either. I see chaos.
buffy said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
I bags not being on the edges of the path. In the middle, like ground zero, fine. Instant obliteration. But I don’t want to be on the edges. And I don’t think I want to be trying to live in the aftermath, either. I see chaos.
Agree. Triggering a nice big volcanic eruption would be easier.
The wiki article suggests that the scienticians will know weeks or months in advance where the asteroid would hit, thereby being able to safely evacuate humans away.
Can’t afford human error or metric v imperial conversions mistakes there.
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
Nobody knows.
And that, quite apart from the unpredictability of the immediate effects, is why we should be very cautious about adopting any climate engineering proposals.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
Nobody knows.
And that, quite apart from the unpredictability of the immediate effects, is why we should be very cautious about adopting any climate engineering proposals.
It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
Climate delusion is becomming serious
mollwollfumble said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
Nobody knows.
And that, quite apart from the unpredictability of the immediate effects, is why we should be very cautious about adopting any climate engineering proposals.
It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Of course you can calculate it.
The unknown question is how far the calculation would deviate from what actually happened.
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:
The Rev Dodgson said:Nobody knows.
And that, quite apart from the unpredictability of the immediate effects, is why we should be very cautious about adopting any climate engineering proposals.
It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Of course you can calculate it.
The unknown question is how far the calculation would deviate from what actually happened.
About 3000 times?
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:
The Rev Dodgson said:Nobody knows.
And that, quite apart from the unpredictability of the immediate effects, is why we should be very cautious about adopting any climate engineering proposals.
It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Of course you can calculate it.
The unknown question is how far the calculation would deviate from what actually happened.
About 3000 times?
sibeen said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Of course you can calculate it.
The unknown question is how far the calculation would deviate from what actually happened.
About 3000 times?
only 2998 times to go, sibeen.
You also don’t know the composition of the ground if it impacts on land and I imagine this would affect the size of the particles, we could even get unlucky and it hits a large uranium ore deposit.
sibeen said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:It can be calculated. I could calculate how long the winter from an Apophis impact would last, given the two alternative scenarios of hitting on land and hitting in the ocean.
… But only if I ignore the volcanic eruptions following the impact.
The key to global winter is particle size. A coarse particle settles quickly, so can essentially be ignored. The particles that really cause the most global cooling are those about one micron diameter. Smaller than that and the electrostatic charge that the particle picks up leads to quicker removal from the atmosphere.
So dust, such as would be generated by wind over the desert or asteroid impact, has a diameter greater than 200 microns and so is ineffective at cooling. Water droplets from the ocean have an equilibrium diameter between 10 and 100 microns. Carbon soot from forest fires and from those industrial processes that have no air pollution controls has a diameter near 1 to 2 microns so is most effective at global cooling.
I’m not sure about the diameter of volcanic dust, but it’s not as effective at global cooling as carbon soot.
Of course you can calculate it.
The unknown question is how far the calculation would deviate from what actually happened.
About 3000 times?
I would not be out by a factor of 3000 if it lands on a critical volcanic hotspot, such as Yellowstone or the African rift valley.
I would guess an error of about a factor of 5 is the closest I could get. This is a hell of a scenario.
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
(http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov) offers characteristics of Apophis to use in the calculations: diameter of 320 meters, density of 2,600 kilograms per cubic meter, and speed of 12.6 km per second. Assuming an impact angle of 45°, we discover that the strike will create a crater about 2 km across and about 0.5 km deep.
That’s about 1.5 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused global temperatures to drop 0.5°C for three years, 1991 to 1993.
Pinatubo ejected 10 cubic kilometres of material. And being finer than the material produced by an asteroid impact it would have stayed aloft for longer.
In other words, the effect of an impact by Apophis on global temperatures would be SFA.
mollwollfumble said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
(http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov) offers characteristics of Apophis to use in the calculations: diameter of 320 meters, density of 2,600 kilograms per cubic meter, and speed of 12.6 km per second. Assuming an impact angle of 45°, we discover that the strike will create a crater about 2 km across and about 0.5 km deep.
That’s about 1.5 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused global temperatures to drop 0.5°C for three years, 1991 to 1993.
Pinatubo ejected 10 cubic kilometres of material. And being finer than the material produced by an asteroid impact it would have stayed aloft for longer.
In other words, the effect of an impact by Apophis on global temperatures would be SFA.
What sort of impact energy
mollwollfumble said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
(http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov) offers characteristics of Apophis to use in the calculations: diameter of 320 meters, density of 2,600 kilograms per cubic meter, and speed of 12.6 km per second. Assuming an impact angle of 45°, we discover that the strike will create a crater about 2 km across and about 0.5 km deep.
That’s about 1.5 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused global temperatures to drop 0.5°C for three years, 1991 to 1993.
Pinatubo ejected 10 cubic kilometres of material. And being finer than the material produced by an asteroid impact it would have stayed aloft for longer.
In other words, the effect of an impact by Apophis on global temperatures would be SFA.
Bugger. I was hoping for a decent sci fi story to come out of this particular pondering.
Divine Angel said:
mollwollfumble said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
(http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov) offers characteristics of Apophis to use in the calculations: diameter of 320 meters, density of 2,600 kilograms per cubic meter, and speed of 12.6 km per second. Assuming an impact angle of 45°, we discover that the strike will create a crater about 2 km across and about 0.5 km deep.
That’s about 1.5 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused global temperatures to drop 0.5°C for three years, 1991 to 1993.
Pinatubo ejected 10 cubic kilometres of material. And being finer than the material produced by an asteroid impact it would have stayed aloft for longer.
In other words, the effect of an impact by Apophis on global temperatures would be SFA.
Bugger. I was hoping for a decent sci fi story to come out of this particular pondering.
Never fear, we have places like Yellowstone waiting to blow it’s head off. Another supervolcano should change things a fair bit.
Cymek said:
mollwollfumble said:
Divine Angel said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_ApophisCould we deflect this asteroid towards the Earth, deliberately causing an impact winter event to temporarily offset warming?
How long would an impact winter last with an object of this size?
(http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov) offers characteristics of Apophis to use in the calculations: diameter of 320 meters, density of 2,600 kilograms per cubic meter, and speed of 12.6 km per second. Assuming an impact angle of 45°, we discover that the strike will create a crater about 2 km across and about 0.5 km deep.
That’s about 1.5 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused global temperatures to drop 0.5°C for three years, 1991 to 1993.
Pinatubo ejected 10 cubic kilometres of material. And being finer than the material produced by an asteroid impact it would have stayed aloft for longer.
In other words, the effect of an impact by Apophis on global temperatures would be SFA.
What sort of impact energy
One joule is 1 kg m^2 / s^2.
This is 0.017 km^3 * 2600 kg / m^3 * 12.6^2 km^2 / s^2.
Converting km to 1000 m gives 7 * 10^18 Joules.
That’s 1670 Megatons of TNT. The biggest single H-bomb ever made was 50 Megatons.
Yes, by killing most of humanity.
Kothos said:
Yes, by killing most of humanity.
Heh!
Michael V said:
Kothos said:Yes, by killing most of humanity.
Heh!
A crater 2 km across and 0.5 km deep is tiny. And tiny for an asteroid that big.
All but 6 of the 26 confirmed impact craters in Australia are bigger than that.
The Chicxulub crater is 150 km in diameter.
I wouldn’t want to share the same continent with this thing. But it wouldn’t kill most of hu-manitee.
Oh I didn’t check the Wiki ref. Didn’t know the size of the asteroid.
Still, something that size will still cause major havoc and loss of life. Would be a wake up call for he remaining bipedal anthropods.