https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.08035.pdf

A throw-away thread. However.

“The permanency of such changes has ledsome geologists to propose that we are entering a new epoch known as the “Anthropocene,”which is characterized by geological and ecological developments that result from the hu-man influence. Astrobiologists today are engaged in the search for spectroscopic “biosignatures” on extrasolar planets that would indicate the presence of surface life. Understanding the evolution of Earth’s detectability across time, and into the future,provides important examples of biosignatures and “technosignatures” that could plausibly exist elsewhere.

“Examining the detectability of future Earth requires that we first consider the likely and possible trajectories for human civilization as we enter the Anthropocene and contemplate becoming a spacefaring civilization. In this special issue, Mullan and Haqq-Misra (2019) examine trajectories of human population growth and energy use to find that our technology may induce direct thermal heating by the year 2260. Adam Frank discusses the probability of extraterrestrial intelligence existing, as well our chances of finding any, in his book Light of the Stars, which is reviewed in this issue by DeMarines (2019).

“The ongoing search for extraterrestrial life over about six decades has found no tell-tale signs of any energy-intensive or sustainable-growth civilizations. Such evidence could be forthcoming in coming years, but this state of affairs may also indicate that extraterrestrial intelligence does not exist at all. The argument famously known as “Fermi’s paradox” suggests that an advanced civilization could have rapidly spread across the galaxy, so if they do exist we should have already seen them. Underlying many of these concerns about Earth’s detectability is the longevity of our civilization.”

References

Mullan, B. & Haqq-Misra, J. (2019). Population growth, energy use, and the implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.Futures, 106: 4-17.

DeMarines, J. (2019). Light of the Stars: Alien Worlds and the Fate of the Earth, by Adam Frank. _Futures_,106: 20.

See also https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=source%3Afutures&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=2018&as_yhi=2019

worth a thread, opened it, read it properly later.

it could have been titled the lonely end of nature on earth

funny idea really, a technosignature, you know like our civilization (the earth) is a Ferrari or Lamborghini, that ET’s looking to be impressed, and would be, if happened upon earth.

ET I guess might be looking for shiny things, electrified things, that generate a lot of heat. Radios blaring.

I have an ambivalence about making the earth seem small, which humans are contributing to doing in so many ways, and rapidly.

ambivalence doesn’t sound very scientific does it, or enthusiastic.

transition said:

funny idea really, a technosignature, you know like our civilization (the earth) is a Ferrari or Lamborghini, that ET’s looking to be impressed, and would be, if happened upon earth.

ET I guess might be looking for shiny things, electrified things, that generate a lot of heat. Radios blaring.

I have an ambivalence about making the earth seem small, which humans are contributing to doing in so many ways, and rapidly.

ambivalence doesn’t sound very scientific does it, or enthusiastic.

:-)

>The argument famously known as “Fermi’s paradox” suggests that an advanced civilization could have rapidly spread across the galaxy, so if they do exist we should have already seen them.

Big leap from “could have” to “should have” there.

Advanced civilizations don’t have to conform to whatever’s going on in our science fiction at this time or that time.

It may be that advanced civilizations typically abandon primitive ideas about galactic expansion, finding no need for such extravagant enterprises.

Bubblecar said:

>The argument famously known as “Fermi’s paradox” suggests that an advanced civilization could have rapidly spread across the galaxy, so if they do exist we should have already seen them.

Big leap from “could have” to “should have” there.

Advanced civilizations don’t have to conform to whatever’s going on in our science fiction at this time or that time.

It may be that advanced civilizations typically abandon primitive ideas about galactic expansion, finding no need for such extravagant enterprises.

parochial ET, I love it, sounds English.

Bubblecar said:

>The argument famously known as “Fermi’s paradox” suggests that an advanced civilization could have rapidly spread across the galaxy, so if they do exist we should have already seen them.

Big leap from “could have” to “should have” there.

Advanced civilizations don’t have to conform to whatever’s going on in our science fiction at this time or that time.

It may be that advanced civilizations typically abandon primitive ideas about galactic expansion, finding no need for such extravagant enterprises.

Given the delay between going to the Moon and going to Mars, i’m inclined to agree. Perhaps the Fermi paradox needs to be completely rewritten.

i’m thinking life is both rare and unfortunate, particularly conscious life.