Improvements in the uncertainty model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) analysis

Key Points:

• A total uncertainty analysis for GISTEMP is presented for the first time.
• Uncertainty in global mean surface temperature is roughly 0.05˚C in recent decades increasing to 0.15˚C in the 19th Century.
• Annual mean uncertainties are small relative to the long term trend.
• The warmest year on record was 2016 with 86% confidence.

Just thinking, 1945 to 1980 was the worst period for air pollution wasn’t it?

it was probably the nuclear winter

mollwollfumble said:

Just thinking, 1945 to 1980 was the worst period for air pollution wasn’t it?

It may just be confirmation bias, but it seems to me that there are several peaks at times of reduced industrial output, and flat regions at times of rapidly increasing industrial output and/or world war.

There must be people looking at this effect, surely.

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

Just thinking, 1945 to 1980 was the worst period for air pollution wasn’t it?

It may just be confirmation bias, but it seems to me that there are several peaks at times of reduced industrial output, and flat regions at times of rapidly increasing industrial output and/or world war.

There must be people looking at this effect, surely.

I’m sure there are. Like here “https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Aerosols/page3.php”. It’s complicated.

And don’t call me Shirley.