Date: 23/06/2019 13:44:46
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1402998
Subject: Venezuela

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668

Hyperinflation.
Falling GDP
Not enough food
Malaria, measels and diphtheria crisis
The US, Venezuela’s largest customer, is defaulting on payments for oil
More than 2 million Venezuelans are leaving
Foreign governments are split over who they accept as president.

How do you live in a country like that?
How do you solve economic problems of that magnitude?
This article was written in Feb 2019. What’s happened since then?

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Date: 23/06/2019 14:04:36
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1403006
Subject: re: Venezuela

DV is our goto guy for third world socialist paradises. He’ll be along shortly.

NB: Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in South America. Then they voted in Chavez. Since then Venezuela has become third-world and obstensibly a socialist paradise. Note the causation.

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Date: 23/06/2019 14:42:19
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403023
Subject: re: Venezuela

Witty Rejoinder said:


DV is our goto guy for third world socialist paradises. He’ll be along shortly.

NB: Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in South America. Then they voted in Chavez. Since then Venezuela has become third-world and obstensibly a socialist paradise. Note the causation.

You mean, because Venzuela introduced free health care and other much needed socialist reforms, the US went all out to destroy both the government and the country. Starting with permanently cutting Venezuela’s foreign income by 50%. And more than that since then.

Causation can work both ways. I don’t know which is correct.

Interesting that Maduro has won three of the four democratic elections since the death of Chavez. He lost the one in 2015, but was voted back in more recently.

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Date: 23/06/2019 14:45:48
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1403028
Subject: re: Venezuela

mollwollfumble said:


Witty Rejoinder said:

DV is our goto guy for third world socialist paradises. He’ll be along shortly.

NB: Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in South America. Then they voted in Chavez. Since then Venezuela has become third-world and obstensibly a socialist paradise. Note the causation.

You mean, because Venzuela introduced free health care and other much needed socialist reforms, the US went all out to destroy both the government and the country. Starting with permanently cutting Venezuela’s foreign income by 50%. And more than that since then.

Causation can work both ways. I don’t know which is correct.

Interesting that Maduro has won three of the four democratic elections since the death of Chavez. He lost the one in 2015, but was voted back in more recently.

Are you looking to update Venezuela on wikipedia?

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Date: 23/06/2019 15:01:59
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403035
Subject: re: Venezuela

Witty Rejoinder said:


mollwollfumble said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

DV is our goto guy for third world socialist paradises. He’ll be along shortly.

NB: Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in South America. Then they voted in Chavez. Since then Venezuela has become third-world and obstensibly a socialist paradise. Note the causation.

You mean, because Venzuela introduced free health care and other much needed socialist reforms, the US went all out to destroy both the government and the country. Starting with permanently cutting Venezuela’s foreign income by 50%. And more than that since then.

Causation can work both ways. I don’t know which is correct.

Interesting that Maduro has won three of the four democratic elections since the death of Chavez. He lost the one in 2015, but was voted back in more recently.

Are you looking to update Venezuela on wikipedia?

I wasn’t, and still don’t, but there’s a huge amount of duplication and the duplicates contradict each other. So, for example, the article says both “almost 2 million people have left the country” and “3.4 million people have left the country”. Such inconsistencies are inevitable in a rapidly changing situation, but still it is annoying.

As another example, the election in 2015 gets only a single line of text, with no explanation as to how Maduro survived as president when his party lost the election.

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Date: 23/06/2019 15:09:30
From: AwesomeO
ID: 1403039
Subject: re: Venezuela

Seems to be an issue for a lot of countries, fall arse over backwards into a resource, socialise everything which stifles business and investment then the resource price crashes.

There is a name for it which eludes me at the moment, the curse of prosperity or summat.

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Date: 23/06/2019 15:34:17
From: dv
ID: 1403049
Subject: re: Venezuela

Venezuela’s single biggest mistake was subsidizing fuel locally. They kept local petrol prices constant for 20 years during a period when the crude price increased >6fold. The subsidy became the single biggest national government expense, cumulatively coating them over a trillion dollars, money that could have been spent on infrastructure, health programs, education, housing, fixing the power grid to make things better for manufacturers…

And for what? Is there some reason that petrol, of all commodities, needs to be kept flat for decades, while everything else gets expensive?

The other problem was plain on cronyism and corruption. Chavez put people in important positions who were not suited to the positions, and/or used the positions to enrich themselves. There was shall we say little ethos of anticorruption or transparency.

Every now and then I hear folks say that Australia’s LNP reserves are abundant so we should subsidise it for the local market… but why? That money can be better spent elsewhere. (OTOH I don’t think the current royalty system is adequate.)

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Date: 23/06/2019 15:53:45
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403061
Subject: re: Venezuela

Thanks for the summary dv.

> Is there some reason that petrol, of all commodities, needs to be kept flat …

Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.

But I suppose there’s a good reason for governments in other countries to tax the life out of petrol – because they can.

> Chavez put people in important positions who were not suited to the positions, and/or used the positions to enrich themselves.

Nasty mistake.

But how can an economy work at all with hyperinflation? Savings are worth zero, obviously. Ditto loans.

And what can Venezuela do to overcome the problem in the near future?

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Date: 24/06/2019 03:21:16
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403242
Subject: re: Venezuela

mollwollfumble said:


Thanks for the summary dv.

> Is there some reason that petrol, of all commodities, needs to be kept flat …

Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.

But I suppose there’s a good reason for governments in other countries to tax the life out of petrol – because they can.

> Chavez put people in important positions who were not suited to the positions, and/or used the positions to enrich themselves.

Nasty mistake.

But how can an economy work at all with hyperinflation? Savings are worth zero, obviously. Ditto loans.

And what can Venezuela do to overcome the problem in the near future?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/13/venezuela-hyperinflation-bolivar-banknotes-dollars

“The government’s mint no longer works … Venezuelans are using barter, dollars and – when the power supply allows – online transfers, debit cards and even cryptocurrencies to scrape together what they need to survive. … Before the power cut, most people in urban areas relied on online transfers and debit cards to make payments, leaving anyone without a card or internet banking dangerously vulnerable. Gindel Delgado spent two months excluded from the system, spending all his spare time on Kafkaesque efforts to be able to use money again. He needed a new bank card to access his account, but a shortage of plastic meant his bank refused to issue one. … bulk purchases by Venezuelans abroad supporting family back home”.

The damn US is really out to kill Venezuela. “US officials told reporters that Washington is considering fresh financial sanctions which could prohibit Visa, Mastercard and other financial institutions from processing transactions in Venezuela.”

“Steve Hanke has logged 58 historical episodes of hyperinflation around the world, and says Venezuela’s is the fourth longest, though nearer the median for rate of price rises. That does not mean an end is in sight. The longest episode Hanke has recorded, in Nicaragua about three decades ago, lasted nearly five years.”

So, how did Nicaragua end theirs?

“The measuring rod has already been changed to the US dollar. The only way out for Venezuela, whether under the government of Nicolás Maduro or his challenger Juan Guaidó, will be making that unofficial measuring rod official … There usually is some end point to hyperinflation because one of two things happens. You get a political change, and then you get a currency reform. Or you get the same guy in power and you get a currency reform.”

In Nicaragua, after 1985 the government chose to fill the gap between decreasing revenues and mushrooming military expenditures by printing large amounts of paper money. Inflation skyrocketed. Now that was stupid. … Hurricane Joan cut a devastating path directly across the center of the country. Damage was extensive, and the government’s program of massive spending to repair the infrastructure destroyed its anti-inflation measures. … the United States trade embargo. The US playing a big role in killing Nicaragua, then?

The Chamorro government’s initial economic package embraced a standard International Monetary Fund and World Bank set of policy prescriptions. The IMF demands included instituting measures aimed at halting spiraling inflation; lowering the fiscal deficit by downsizing the public sector work force and the military, and reducing spending for social programs. … Inspired by the IMF, Minister of Finance Francisco Mayoraga quickly put together an economic “Plan of 100 Days.” This plan, also called the “Mayoraga Plan,” cut the deficit and helped to lower inflation. Loss of jobs and higher prices under the plan, however, also resulted in crippling public and private-sector strikes throughout the country. Mayoraga’s tenure in office barely exceeded the 100 days of his economic plan. By the end of 1990, the government was forced to abandon most of its freemarket reforms.

Nothing on Wikipedia about how Nicaragua succeeded in getting out of trouble. According to wikipedia, Nicaragua hasn’t had an economy since 1996.

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Date: 24/06/2019 03:23:53
From: dv
ID: 1403243
Subject: re: Venezuela

“Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.”

Everything relies on food too. Can’t do a damned thing without food. But they didn’t keep food prices flat: quite the contrary. Can’t do much without steel either, or concrete. Basically there are quite a few commodities that are quite important to the economy but ploughing a good chunk of your state budget into keeping one particular commodity at flat prices for 20 years is not smart…

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Date: 24/06/2019 03:47:08
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403245
Subject: re: Venezuela

dv said:


“Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.”

Everything relies on food too. Can’t do a damned thing without food. But they didn’t keep food prices flat: quite the contrary. Can’t do much without steel either, or concrete. Basically there are quite a few commodities that are quite important to the economy but ploughing a good chunk of your state budget into keeping one particular commodity at flat prices for 20 years is not smart…

Food price is lower because of reduced transport costs, obviously. Ditto steel and concrete, though to a lesser extent. Because everything relies on transport, reduced transport costs benefit every part of the economy.

Of course it’s not smart, but I can understand their thinking.

Reading more about Nicaragua. Still no information on wikipedia about how Nicaragua recovered from hyperinflation in the years immediately following 1996. “Nicaragua has transformed itself into one of the safest and fastest-growing countries in North America.” but how?

Nicaragua, “the US staged an economic blockade from 1985 onward”. Oh dear.

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Date: 24/06/2019 07:25:10
From: Tamb
ID: 1403251
Subject: re: Venezuela

mollwollfumble said:


dv said:

“Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.”

Everything relies on food too. Can’t do a damned thing without food. But they didn’t keep food prices flat: quite the contrary. Can’t do much without steel either, or concrete. Basically there are quite a few commodities that are quite important to the economy but ploughing a good chunk of your state budget into keeping one particular commodity at flat prices for 20 years is not smart…

Food price is lower because of reduced transport costs, obviously. Ditto steel and concrete, though to a lesser extent. Because everything relies on transport, reduced transport costs benefit every part of the economy.

Of course it’s not smart, but I can understand their thinking.

Reading more about Nicaragua. Still no information on wikipedia about how Nicaragua recovered from hyperinflation in the years immediately following 1996. “Nicaragua has transformed itself into one of the safest and fastest-growing countries in North America.” but how?

Nicaragua, “the US staged an economic blockade from 1985 onward”. Oh dear.

> countries in North America. Moved the country north from Central America. Neat trick.

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Date: 24/06/2019 11:03:38
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1403310
Subject: re: Venezuela

Tamb said:


mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

“Well, there is of course. Transport relies on it. And everything relies on transport.”

Everything relies on food too. Can’t do a damned thing without food. But they didn’t keep food prices flat: quite the contrary. Can’t do much without steel either, or concrete. Basically there are quite a few commodities that are quite important to the economy but ploughing a good chunk of your state budget into keeping one particular commodity at flat prices for 20 years is not smart…

Food price is lower because of reduced transport costs, obviously. Ditto steel and concrete, though to a lesser extent. Because everything relies on transport, reduced transport costs benefit every part of the economy.

Of course it’s not smart, but I can understand their thinking.

Reading more about Nicaragua. Still no information on wikipedia about how Nicaragua recovered from hyperinflation in the years immediately following 1996. “Nicaragua has transformed itself into one of the safest and fastest-growing countries in North America.” but how?

Nicaragua, “the US staged an economic blockade from 1985 onward”. Oh dear.

> countries in North America. Moved the country north from Central America. Neat trick.

Bloody wikipedia. Direct quote from the article on Nicaragua.

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