Date: 22/08/2019 14:39:47
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1426005
Subject: History of overpopulation apocalypse prediction
The word “sustainable” used here means “tends to a static limit”, nothing to do with “permaculture”.
1798 – Malthus – food production will lag behind population and everyone will starve.
1945-1950 – baby boom following WWII.
1960s – worldwide concern over overpopulation. World average TFR is 5 children per woman, where 2.2 is sustainable.
1969 – China’s two child policy.
1972 – Club of Rome – we’re all going to die from smog that inevitably increases as population increases.
1979 – China’s one child policy.
Ah, bother it, I’m just going to give a personal viewpoint.
- First concern was exponential growth of population, at a TFR of 5 the doubling time is about 20 years.
- Second concern (1970s, 1980s) was that the decrease in TFR was going to stall, first apocalypse prediction was for China overpopulation, later India, Pakistan, Africa, Indonesia. Didn’t happen, TFR continued to decrease.
- Third concern was underpopulation. I calculated some years back that at present fertility rates, the population of Europe would drop to zero in 200 years (or was it 300?, some round number anyway). Spain only had an average of 1.2 births per woman, way below sustainability levels. The following chart illustrates how TFR has declined in every country in the world, at a great rate. We’re looking at a global population crash. Everywhere.
- Fourth concern was rebound. In the USA in the population TFR had dropped below sustainability levels by 1972, but started rising in 1976 and by 2007 was back just above sustainability levels. Could it be that those people who heed the overpopulation message breed themselves out of existence leading to a world filled with people who are happy to overpopulate? The answer is no.
- Current status – no concerns about overpopulation or underpopulation whatsoever. The USA’s TFR is back down to 1.9. In those countries where TFR dropped dangerously low, such as Spain in the late 1990s, the value is rising again towards sustainability. In those countries where the TFR took a long time to drop, it’s rapidly on the way down. Niger is now the big nasty, worst in the world, but even it’s on the way down, its TFR peaked in 1983. Nigeria peaked in 1979. Indonesia peaked in 1958. Timor-Leste peaked in 2000.
