We all know I’m a maths dunce, so explain to me like I’m five why Powerball is harder. (Mr Mutant has tried and failed.)

Old Powerball: pick six numbers from 40 balls.
New Powerball: pick seven numbers from 35 balls, which makes it harder to win the jackpot.

I’m confused. How does choosing more numbers from fewer balls make it harder? After I choose 1 number, I then have 34 remaining numbers to choose from instead of 39.

Divine Angel said:

We all know I’m a maths dunce, so explain to me like I’m five why Powerball is harder. (Mr Mutant has tried and failed.)

Old Powerball: pick six numbers from 40 balls.
New Powerball: pick seven numbers from 35 balls, which makes it harder to win the jackpot.

I’m confused. How does choosing more numbers from fewer balls make it harder? After I choose 1 number, I then have 34 remaining numbers to choose from instead of 39.

Let’s see.
40!/6 = 3,838,380
35!/7 = 6,724,520

Almost twice as hard with the new system.

Divine Angel said:

We all know I’m a maths dunce, so explain to me like I’m five why Powerball is harder. (Mr Mutant has tried and failed.)

Old Powerball: pick six numbers from 40 balls.
New Powerball: pick seven numbers from 35 balls, which makes it harder to win the jackpot.

I’m confused. How does choosing more numbers from fewer balls make it harder? After I choose 1 number, I then have 34 remaining numbers to choose from instead of 39.

Let’s see.
40!/6!/34! = 3,838,380
35!/7!/28! = 6,724,520

Almost twice as hard with the new system.

mollwollfumble said:

Divine Angel said:

We all know I’m a maths dunce, so explain to me like I’m five why Powerball is harder. (Mr Mutant has tried and failed.)

Old Powerball: pick six numbers from 40 balls.
New Powerball: pick seven numbers from 35 balls, which makes it harder to win the jackpot.

I’m confused. How does choosing more numbers from fewer balls make it harder? After I choose 1 number, I then have 34 remaining numbers to choose from instead of 39.

Let’s see.
40!/6!/34! = 3,838,380
35!/7!/28! = 6,724,520

Almost twice as hard with the new system.

Yes, but why?

Imagine you need to only choose 1 number from 40 or 2 numbers from 35.

The chance of choosing 1/40 is 0.025.

The chance of choosing 1/35 is about 0.029, then choosing 1/34 is also about 0.029. If I remember probabilty correctly, then multiply these together to find the chance of choosing 2 from 35. It’s about 0.0084. If you need to choose a third number, multiply this result by 1/33 etc.

When you compare the maths for the old and new systems of Powerball, the difference is just as staggering.

It’s the extra number that makes the difference.

After 6 numbers you are about 16.55 times more likely still to be in the game, compared with choosing 7 from 35. You than have a 1/29 chance of getting the last number, so your chance of getting all 7 is 16.55/29 x the chance of getting 6 from 40. So just over half as likely to win.

The Rev Dodgson said:

It’s the extra number that makes the difference.

After 6 numbers you are about 16.55 times more likely still to be in the game, compared with choosing 7 from 35. You than have a 1/29 chance of getting the last number, so your chance of getting all 7 is 16.55/29 x the chance of getting 6 from 40. So just over half as likely to win.

I mean:

After 6 numbers you are about 16.55 times more likely still to be in the game, compared with choosing 6 from 40. You than have a 1/29 chance of getting the last number, so your chance of getting all 7 is 16.55/29 x the chance of getting 6 from 40. So just over half as likely to win.

Divine Angel said:

mollwollfumble said:

Divine Angel said:

We all know I’m a maths dunce, so explain to me like I’m five why Powerball is harder. (Mr Mutant has tried and failed.)

Old Powerball: pick six numbers from 40 balls.
New Powerball: pick seven numbers from 35 balls, which makes it harder to win the jackpot.

I’m confused. How does choosing more numbers from fewer balls make it harder? After I choose 1 number, I then have 34 remaining numbers to choose from instead of 39.

Let’s see.
40!/6!/34! = 3,838,380
35!/7!/28! = 6,724,520

Almost twice as hard with the new system.

Yes, but why?

Because you have to get more numbers correct. The old system you only had to get 6 numbers correct. The new system you have to get all 7 numbers correct, only 6 correct is no longer a jackpot.

Divine Angel said:

mollwollfumble said:

Let’s see.
40!/6!/34! = 3,838,380
35!/7!/28! = 6,724,520

Almost twice as hard with the new system.

Yes, but why?

Because you have to get more numbers correct. The old system you only had to get 6 numbers correct. The new system you have to get all 7 numbers correct, only 6 correct is no longer a jackpot.

Or to put it another way, it’s about 30 times more difficult to get all 7 numbers correct than to get all 6 numbers correct.

Nup, still confused. It should be easier to pick more numbers from a smaller pool.

Divine Angel said:

Nup, still confused. It should be easier to pick more numbers from a smaller pool.

Why?

Think about how easy it is to pick one number right.

Now don’t you think it’s going to be harder to pick two?

And this is why I don’t work for Powerball. I’d be laughed out of the office.

dv said:

He didn’t have enough balls to complete the job.

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

dv said:

sings

And poor Goebbels
has no balls
at all…

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

Picking 7 numbers from 45 is much harder than picking 6 numbers from 45.

Picking 7 from 35 is somewhere in between.

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

Picking 7 numbers from 45 is much harder than picking 6 numbers from 45.

Picking 7 from 35 is somewhere in between.

And to confuse matters further, picking 45 numbers from 45 is really easy.

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

Picking 7 numbers from 45 is much harder than picking 6 numbers from 45.

Picking 7 from 35 is somewhere in between.

And to confuse matters further, picking 45 numbers from 45 is really easy.

Not if you need them in a randomly drawn order 😏

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

45!/39 = 8.145 × 10⁶
35!/28 = 6.725 × 10⁶

So the first case is harder.

sibeen said:

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

45!/39 = 8.145 × 10⁶
35!/28 = 6.725 × 10⁶

So the first case is harder.

45 * 6! = 8.145 × 10⁶
35 * 7! = 6.725 × 10⁶

fixed

Divine Angel said:

Nup, still confused. It should be easier to pick more numbers from a smaller pool.

Picking the same numbers from a smaller pool is easier.
Picking more numbers from the same sized pool is more difficult.

Picking more numbers from a smaller pool may me more or less difficult, you have to work it out.

Compared with 6 numbers from 40, you have to come down to a pool of 32 before 7 numbers is easier.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

Nup, still confused. It should be easier to pick more numbers from a smaller pool.

Picking the same numbers from a smaller pool is easier.
Picking more numbers from the same sized pool is more difficult.

Picking more numbers from a smaller pool may me more or less difficult, you have to work it out.

Compared with 6 numbers from 40, you have to come down to a pool of 32 before 7 numbers is easier.

Or go up to 6 numbers from 44 before that is harder than 7 from 35.

sibeen said:

sibeen said:

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

45!/39 = 8.145 × 10⁶
35!/28 = 6.725 × 10⁶

So the first case is harder.

45 * 6! = 8.145 × 10⁶
35 * 7! = 6.725 × 10⁶

fixed

For DA: exclamation mark.

“In mathematics, the symbol represents the factorial operation. The expression n! means “the product of the integers from 1 to n”. For example, 4! (read four factorial) is 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclamation_mark#Mathematics_and_formal_logic

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

Nup, still confused. It should be easier to pick more numbers from a smaller pool.

Picking the same numbers from a smaller pool is easier.
Picking more numbers from the same sized pool is more difficult.

Picking more numbers from a smaller pool may me more or less difficult, you have to work it out.

Compared with 6 numbers from 40, you have to come down to a pool of 32 before 7 numbers is easier.

This the closest to understanding I’ve gotten so far. Except that I’m not going to work it out myself because as you can see, it hasn’t served me well so far.

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

For argument’s sake, lets pick six numbers from 45. Is that easier or harder than 7 out of 35?

Picking 7 numbers from 45 is much harder than picking 6 numbers from 45.

Picking 7 from 35 is somewhere in between.

And to confuse matters further, picking 45 numbers from 45 is really easy.

Aye.

The hardest number of numbers to pick from 45 is 22.

Or 23.

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

Then any numbers you choose are random numbers.

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

I don’t know. I’ve never wasted my money on gambling.

Bubblecar said:

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

Then any numbers you choose are random numbers.

Except that the pool reduces as each ball is selected.

Michael V said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

I don’t know. I’ve never wasted my money on gambling.

At the Qld Museum today, I learned about the history of Golden Casket. They originally donated money to WWI widows and returned soldiers. These days they use some of their money to get hospital equipment etc.

buffy said:

Bubblecar said:

Divine Angel said:

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

Then any numbers you choose are random numbers.

Except that the pool reduces as each ball is selected.

Ah. I know nothing about gambling.

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

Speedy said:

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

I think a better system would be if I just buy a ticket and they give me $150 million. Cut out all the needless complication.

Speedy said:

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

Actually, I just check that again. The Powerball (2nd) barrel only has 20 numbers.

Bubblecar said:

Speedy said:

Divine Angel said:

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

I think a better system would be if I just buy a ticket and they give me $150 million. Cut out all the needless complication.

Piss off, it’s all mine.

.. but I’ll buy you a tractor.

party_pants said:

Bubblecar said:

Speedy said:

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

I think a better system would be if I just buy a ticket and they give me $150 million. Cut out all the needless complication.

Piss off, it’s all mine.

.. but I’ll buy you a tractor.

I don’t want an effing tractor. I’m not one of the forum’s tractor fanatics.

Anyway I never bother with lotteries, the odds are laughable.

Bubblecar said:

party_pants said:

Bubblecar said:

I think a better system would be if I just buy a ticket and they give me $150 million. Cut out all the needless complication.

Piss off, it’s all mine.

.. but I’ll buy you a tractor.

I don’t want an effing tractor. I’m not one of the forum’s tractor fanatics.

would you prefer a forklift? You could drive it to the IGA and carry your shopping home.

Arggh! That gambling website is disgusting. I feel like I just walked out of a TAB and my clothing should stink of cigarette smoke.

Bubblecar said:

Anyway I never bother with lotteries, the odds are laughable.

I’ve bought Tattslotto tickets for Saturday night pretty much since I have been adult. I buy the smallest ticket available. It costs me under $3 a week. Occasionally I win about $12.

buffy said:

Bubblecar said:

Anyway I never bother with lotteries, the odds are laughable.

I’ve bought Tattslotto tickets for Saturday night pretty much since I have been adult. I buy the smallest ticket available. It costs me under $3 a week. Occasionally I win about $12.

I buy the smallest tickets available when the jackpots are very large. It’s nice to think about all the things I could do with the money, and interesting to realise that there are so many things that would not change.

You’re picking a set of numbers. The order doesn’t matter at all.

Speedy said:

Divine Angel said:

Peak Warming Man said:

In these power bally type things do the numbers have to be in order in order for you to win?
If the scantily clad barrel girl picks out six numbers say 1 2 3 4 5 6 and your entry said 6 5 4 3 2 1 do you win?

Yes. Order doesn’t matter.

With Powerball, there is a second barrel with the same number of balls. One number is chosen from this barrel, which is the actual Powerball. Here’s some info. from the Powerball page which shows you which combinations are required to win some of the prizes, as well as the odds of winning those prizes.

Wow… thanks Speedy.

Speedy said:

buffy said:

Bubblecar said:

Anyway I never bother with lotteries, the odds are laughable.

I’ve bought Tattslotto tickets for Saturday night pretty much since I have been adult. I buy the smallest ticket available. It costs me under $3 a week. Occasionally I win about $12.

I buy the smallest tickets available when the jackpots are very large. It’s nice to think about all the things I could do with the money, and interesting to realise that there are so many things that would not change.

Yes but you can think about all things you could do with the money any time you like. You don’t have to spend any money to do that.

Speedy said:

Arggh! That gambling website is disgusting. I feel like I just walked out of a TAB and my clothing should stink of cigarette smoke.

LO

:)