I read in New Scientist this morning that a psychological study had found that reviewing psychological studies by a group of untrained people applying “common sense” was a reliable way to detect papers that contained conclusions that had not been replicated by later studies.
My common sense tells me that this procedure will come up with a significant number of false positives, and it is these papers, which contain conclusions that are counter-intuitive but have been replicated by later studies, that are the most important.
My common sense therefore tells me that if this paper is true, it is probably false, but if it is false, it may well be true.