Computer Fire modelling
Has this been done?
Any topology location,local temps, humidity, pressure, wind directions etc
and comparing results with real observations, tweaking etc
for example someone could replicate certain fires
or start virtual fires near townships etc
then with weather data work out where its best to drop water
The computer modelling could also take in what happens when hazard reduction, clearing or back burning is done.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Computer Fire modelling
Has this been done?
Any topology location,local temps, humidity, pressure, wind directions etc
and comparing results with real observations, tweaking etc
Sure, lots of it.
I’m more familiar with work on buildings, but I’m sure there has been lots of work on bush fires.
Yes, a lot of work has been done. The fire services use models. News over the last few days is the models break down when used to predict the mega fires that generate pyrocumulus clouds.
Michael V said:
Yes, a lot of work has been done. The fire services use models. News over the last few days is the models break down when used to predict the mega fires that generate pyrocumulus clouds.
ok, thanks.
Yep. This gets into what is called CFD, computational fluid dynamics. Navier-Stokes equations and all that jazz. Very, very heavy computer usage and lots and lots of guesses made just to get the simulations to run in a way that gives a reasonable result.
sibeen said:
Yep. This gets into what is called CFD, computational fluid dynamics. Navier-Stokes equations and all that jazz. Very, very heavy computer usage and lots and lots of guesses made just to get the simulations to run in a way that gives a reasonable result.
Plus those bloody butterflies in Brazil keep messing up the results.
The Rev Dodgson said:
sibeen said:
Yep. This gets into what is called CFD, computational fluid dynamics. Navier-Stokes equations and all that jazz. Very, very heavy computer usage and lots and lots of guesses made just to get the simulations to run in a way that gives a reasonable result.Plus those bloody butterflies in Brazil keep messing up the results.
Except they got burnt out this year, too.
The Rev Dodgson said:
sibeen said:
Yep. This gets into what is called CFD, computational fluid dynamics. Navier-Stokes equations and all that jazz. Very, very heavy computer usage and lots and lots of guesses made just to get the simulations to run in a way that gives a reasonable result.Plus those bloody butterflies in Brazil keep messing up the results.
yeah tell them to keep still so the calculations can be better.
Michael V said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
sibeen said:
Yep. This gets into what is called CFD, computational fluid dynamics. Navier-Stokes equations and all that jazz. Very, very heavy computer usage and lots and lots of guesses made just to get the simulations to run in a way that gives a reasonable result.Plus those bloody butterflies in Brazil keep messing up the results.
Except they got burnt out this year, too.
Even the ice poles are burning.
Id like to see a program that can take in enough data and output possible solutions
say replicating the Canberra 2003 fire
output possible solutions one of which would be water bombing the bushland adjacent to the fringe suburbs which meet the brindabella bushland
the program would work out the amount of water needed and where best to drop each load of water and how many helicopters are needed
Local water spots would be taken in
Canberra has a lake from where helicopters could get water
Thats a lot of data and information to deal with.
more supercomputers for fire management
Tau.Neutrino said:
Id like to see a program that can take in enough data and output possible solutions
say replicating the Canberra 2003 fire
output possible solutions one of which would be water bombing the bushland adjacent to the fringe suburbs which meet the brindabella bushland
the program would work out the amount of water needed and where best to drop each load of water and how many helicopters are needed
Local water spots would be taken in
Canberra has a lake from where helicopters could get water
Thats a lot of data and information to deal with.
more supercomputers for fire management
I’m guessing 20 helicopters ?
Each doing multiple loads and dropping the water on the trees before the fire gets there
How long did the fire take to get from the lightning strike location to the canberra suburbs?
From a lightning strike to a city ablaze
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/canberra-bushfires-craig-allen/4455454
about a week
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Id like to see a program that can take in enough data and output possible solutions
say replicating the Canberra 2003 fire
output possible solutions one of which would be water bombing the bushland adjacent to the fringe suburbs which meet the brindabella bushland
the program would work out the amount of water needed and where best to drop each load of water and how many helicopters are needed
Local water spots would be taken in
Canberra has a lake from where helicopters could get water
Thats a lot of data and information to deal with.
more supercomputers for fire management
I’m guessing 20 helicopters ?
Each doing multiple loads and dropping the water on the trees before the fire gets there
How long did the fire take to get from the lightning strike location to the canberra suburbs?
From a lightning strike to a city ablaze
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/canberra-bushfires-craig-allen/4455454about a week
fire fighting was certainly going on protecting infrastructure
which which over stressed beyond its limitations
Lots of people were working very hard.
Who’s burning my icy poles?
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Id like to see a program that can take in enough data and output possible solutions
say replicating the Canberra 2003 fire
output possible solutions one of which would be water bombing the bushland adjacent to the fringe suburbs which meet the brindabella bushland
the program would work out the amount of water needed and where best to drop each load of water and how many helicopters are needed
Local water spots would be taken in
Canberra has a lake from where helicopters could get water
Thats a lot of data and information to deal with.
more supercomputers for fire management
I’m guessing 20 helicopters ?
Each doing multiple loads and dropping the water on the trees before the fire gets there
How long did the fire take to get from the lightning strike location to the canberra suburbs?
From a lightning strike to a city ablaze
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/canberra-bushfires-craig-allen/4455454about a week
fire fighting was certainly going on protecting infrastructure
which which over stressed beyond its limitations
Lots of people were working very hard.
I didn’t notice any land clearing going on (adjacent to the suburbs where the bushland meets) during that time
how many meters in would have helped ?
roughbarked said:
Who’s burning my icy poles?
Your better half?
Tau.Neutrino said:
Even the ice poles are burning.
roughbarked said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Even the ice poles are burning.
ok, an exaggeration.
Lots of smoke here.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Computer Fire modelling
Has this been done?
Any topology location, local temps, humidity, pressure, wind directions etc
and comparing results with real observations, tweaking etc
Interior or exterior?
I’ve done some interior fire modelling myself, and a lot of other people have, too. I can tell you about several different types of interior fire modelling as well. Applications include government buildings, skyscrapers, tunnels, train stations and mines.
Exterior fires, bushfires, I’ve been out of the loop for more than 20 years now. These are an order of magnitude more difficult to compute, and fall into, I would guess, three different categories.
Most of the CSIRO work on bushfires used to be headed by Justin Leonard. He was an experimentalist and would set fire to all sorts of physical models to try to ascertain what the real fire behaviour would be. As well as go bush to examine the patterns of burning of real fires to determine exactly what happened.
Outdoor computer fire modelling would, at a guess, fall into three categories.
1. Predictive fire modelling
2. Retrospective fire modelling
3. Generic fire modelling
Predictive fire modelling (20 years ago) takes no account of terrain and is based solely on wind speed, fuel load, humidity and similar. It doesn’t attempt to predict where fires will spread except in the broadest possible terms, giving instead category of risk.
Retrospective fire modelling helps to explain where extreme fires went, to reproduce in 2-D the spread pattern of a bushfire that has already occurred.
Generic fire modelling looks at generic terrain factors, valleys, ridges etc. on the spread direction of fires. eg. bushfires spread very rapidly up valleys because they create their own low level strong wind convection. Another example would (I expect) be tornados whipped up by fires.
Looking up Google Scholar.
> A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape 1996. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Forestry and Forest Products has developed a PC-based fire spread prediction application that can be used by fire control officers
That’s bad news. The CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
mollwollfumble said:
Looking up Google Scholar.> A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape 1996. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Forestry and Forest Products has developed a PC-based fire spread prediction application that can be used by fire control officers
That’s bad news. The CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
Looks like we need a new approach.
Perhaps even a junior ministry under defence?
If fire threatens a town or city and its beyond the resources of combined local fire fighting then its a job for defence.
Defence should have a fleet of planes and helicopters for that purpose fire fighting
Extra pilots could be trained for fire defence, no combat training.
Helicopters could have a depot of water buckets filled with water and ready to be picked up
Say twenty helicopters, 40 buckets, each helicopter has two buckets while one is in the air the other is being filled with water etc
I was thinking exterior fire modelling .
>>>Looking up Google Scholar.
> A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape 1996. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Forestry and Forest Products has developed a PC-based fire spread prediction application that can be used by fire control officers
That’s bad news. The CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
=====
All I can about that is the logic and ethics for shutting that down is criminal.
> A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape 1996. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Forestry and Forest Products has developed a PC-based fire spread prediction application that can be used by fire control officers
Its good news such a program was written.
Fire fighting in catastrophic conditions where a state emergency has been declared involves BOM, fire fighters, police and defence.
People should have access to information, that’s where such a program could help.
I think we also need a network of infrared sensors spread across bushland around cities and towns
and connect all these sensors to the fire modelling programs etc
In the future
Speed is the key to controlling fires with detection from infrared sensors, and deployment of fire fighting drones
In the future automated firefighting
Helicopter drones
Done planes
Drone bulldozers
Robots
More infrastructure is needed.
More supercomputers are needed.
More equipment is needed.
Corridors of grass land between suburbs and bushland would be good idea, this is what Canberra should have around the base of all the mountains. Maybe townships should has well.
No one thought of the physics involved.
Corridors of back burning around the perimeters of townships.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Corridors of back burning around the perimeters of townships.
hazard reduction burns.
JudgeMental said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Corridors of back burning around the perimeters of townships.hazard reduction burns.
Yes it does go on, but more needs to be done.
Tau.Neutrino said:
JudgeMental said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Corridors of back burning around the perimeters of townships.hazard reduction burns.
Yes it does go on, but more needs to be done.
targets are ok as long as the right areas are done and not just to achieve a quota.
I’m assuming these fires will probably be the norm rather than the exception as the planet warms and we haven’t even gotten to the worst of it yet.
I wonder what sort of flow on effects will be felt besides all the death and destruction.
JudgeMental said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
JudgeMental said:hazard reduction burns.
Yes it does go on, but more needs to be done.
targets are ok as long as the right areas are done and not just to achieve a quota.
Some training needs to be involved, nothing is simple.
Protected habitats, Electricity poles, things like that.
Cymek said:
I’m assuming these fires will probably be the norm rather than the exception as the planet warms and we haven’t even gotten to the worst of it yet.
I wonder what sort of flow on effects will be felt besides all the death and destruction.
Fire modelling can be done in the past, present and future
we can create models from past events and run with parameters that match real world conditions
we can do fire modelling in the present with weather data and observations
we can predict future conditions to some extent .
Bush fires are contributing to species extinction.
Tau.Neutrino said:
JudgeMental said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Yes it does go on, but more needs to be done.
targets are ok as long as the right areas are done and not just to achieve a quota.
Some training needs to be involved, nothing is simple.
Protected habitats, Electricity poles, things like that.
I wonder what sort of energy is being generated by these fires, it seems we are barely able to divert them let alone control or put them out.
We could find that it’s impossible to stop them occurring on a regular basis and the towns in the path of the fires will always be at risk.
Assuming they are rebuilt they might be considered an insurance risk and no longer insurable
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
I’m assuming these fires will probably be the norm rather than the exception as the planet warms and we haven’t even gotten to the worst of it yet.
I wonder what sort of flow on effects will be felt besides all the death and destruction.
Fire modelling can be done in the past, present and future
we can create models from past events and run with parameters that match real world conditions
we can do fire modelling in the present with weather data and observations
we can predict future conditions to some extent .
Bush fires are contributing to species extinction.
I imagine so but will it be a model of destruction or could they be used to input solutions and see if they work.
Say for the fires occurring now I wonder if you could determine how much water is needed to put them out
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
JudgeMental said:targets are ok as long as the right areas are done and not just to achieve a quota.
Some training needs to be involved, nothing is simple.
Protected habitats, Electricity poles, things like that.
I wonder what sort of energy is being generated by these fires, it seems we are barely able to divert them let alone control or put them out.
We could find that it’s impossible to stop them occurring on a regular basis and the towns in the path of the fires will always be at risk.
Assuming they are rebuilt they might be considered an insurance risk and no longer insurable
Building homes around bushland is problematic.
Having a suburb like in Canberra that faces a whole mountain of Gumtrees and bushland does not make sense.
Building and burning and building and burning does not make sense either.
Placing a grass corridor between them would make sense Or along and tall concrete wall
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
I’m assuming these fires will probably be the norm rather than the exception as the planet warms and we haven’t even gotten to the worst of it yet.
I wonder what sort of flow on effects will be felt besides all the death and destruction.
Fire modelling can be done in the past, present and future
we can create models from past events and run with parameters that match real world conditions
we can do fire modelling in the present with weather data and observations
we can predict future conditions to some extent .
Bush fires are contributing to species extinction.
I imagine so but will it be a model of destruction or could they be used to input solutions and see if they work.
Say for the fires occurring now I wonder if you could determine how much water is needed to put them out
The CSIRO was doing work in that area,
Mollwollfumble said in an above post that the CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
I think they need to recommission it.
What temperature were the gumtrees burning at in that Canberra 2003 bushfire ?
Around 1100°C near the flame base
Flame temperature and residence time of fires in dry eucalypt forest
https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF10127 )
I dont think I would like those temperatures just 40 meters or so across the road.
Spontaneous combustion of curtains and other household flammable materials
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Fire modelling can be done in the past, present and future
we can create models from past events and run with parameters that match real world conditions
we can do fire modelling in the present with weather data and observations
we can predict future conditions to some extent .
Bush fires are contributing to species extinction.
I imagine so but will it be a model of destruction or could they be used to input solutions and see if they work.
Say for the fires occurring now I wonder if you could determine how much water is needed to put them out
The CSIRO was doing work in that area,
Mollwollfumble said in an above post that the CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
I think they need to recommission it.
I was just reading about the saga on Wikipedia, now large numbers of the military are involved including army reserves.
Perhaps the only good that will come out of it is we are forced to honour and improve our contribution to global warming reduction.
opps
Flame temperature and residence time of fires in dry eucalypt forest
https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF10127
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:I imagine so but will it be a model of destruction or could they be used to input solutions and see if they work.
Say for the fires occurring now I wonder if you could determine how much water is needed to put them out
The CSIRO was doing work in that area,
Mollwollfumble said in an above post that the CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
I think they need to recommission it.
I was just reading about the saga on Wikipedia, now large numbers of the military are involved including army reserves.
Perhaps the only good that will come out of it is we are forced to honour and improve our contribution to global warming reduction.
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I reckon they could do it like the army reserve where they do a weekend a month and a couple of weeks a year paid training but keep their regular jobs, except for a core group of full time employees. Then when it comes to deployment they get leave from their current job and continue to be paid – however it works for the army reserve…
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Exactly. Have a separate force, no issues with that, trying to merge it into defence is just bonkers.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:The CSIRO was doing work in that area,
Mollwollfumble said in an above post that the CSIRO sacked all its Forestry and Forest Products staff 15 or so years ago.
I think they need to recommission it.
I was just reading about the saga on Wikipedia, now large numbers of the military are involved including army reserves.
Perhaps the only good that will come out of it is we are forced to honour and improve our contribution to global warming reduction.I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
Defense are already assisting with behind-the-scenes support.
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
I think the problem is growing bigger than what commercial operators can do.
if things get bigger than the combined local fire fighters then call in defence
and yes have commercial operators working as well
sibeen said:
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Exactly. Have a separate force, no issues with that, trying to merge it into defence is just bonkers.
ok a separate force then
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
Where does the extra equipment come from ?
Tau.Neutrino said:
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
Where does the extra equipment come from ?
Involving the military and reservists would be the best move I imagine, they have training even if it’s not fire fighting they have other useful skills.
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Sorry Obviousman I didnt quote you properly Ill try again.
and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
Where does the extra equipment come from ?
Involving the military and reservists would be the best move I imagine, they have training even if it’s not fire fighting they have other useful skills.
Maybe a mixture of the two, military and commercial.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
Where does the extra equipment come from ?
Involving the military and reservists would be the best move I imagine, they have training even if it’s not fire fighting they have other useful skills.
Maybe a mixture of the two, military and commercial.
We also aren’t unreasonable to expect international help, we’ve offered and given it to others numerous times so should expect offers in return
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/bushfires-weather-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves/11842312
Michael V said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/bushfires-weather-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves/11842312
Sweet hey
I wonder what the economic effect will be, going to cost many billions to cope with these disasters
Tau.Neutrino said:
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
I’d like to see a new defence fire fighting unit coming out of it
I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Sorry Obviousman I didnt quote you properly Ill try again.
and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
That sector will train pilots as required. Defence is best off in the support role: evacuating people, moving troops or equipment, human resources to assist as required, etc.
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:Involving the military and reservists would be the best move I imagine, they have training even if it’s not fire fighting they have other useful skills.
Maybe a mixture of the two, military and commercial.
We also aren’t unreasonable to expect international help, we’ve offered and given it to others numerous times so should expect offers in return
Exactly. Notice that all the international help are professional firefighters, not military forces.
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Obviousman said:I doubt it will ever happen. There was a study some years ago that investigated having fire-fighting aircraft owned and maintained by the ADF. The cost was horrendous.
We do maintain some skills (Navy have a Bambi Bucket currency) but I think it is best left to the core group of fire aircraft aircrew, who do this type of thing regularly and know just how close to the edge they can take things. This is also their profession, so unless there is good reason I wouldn’t want to take their bread & butter away from them.
Sorry Obviousman I didnt quote you properly Ill try again.
and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
That sector will train pilots as required. Defence is best off in the support role: evacuating people, moving troops or equipment, human resources to assist as required, etc.
I agree wholeheartedly.
After all, defence is better equipped to start fires, not put them out! (VTIC)
Michael V said:
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Sorry Obviousman I didnt quote you properly Ill try again.
and what happens when things get too big for them ?
Can we train more pilots to follow their lead ?
That sector will train pilots as required. Defence is best off in the support role: evacuating people, moving troops or equipment, human resources to assist as required, etc.
I agree wholeheartedly.
But what happens in the interim ?
Does the Federal government set up a force get everything working together then commercial it ?
Tau.Neutrino said:
Michael V said:
Obviousman said:That sector will train pilots as required. Defence is best off in the support role: evacuating people, moving troops or equipment, human resources to assist as required, etc.
I agree wholeheartedly.
But what happens in the interim ?
Does the Federal government set up a force get everything working together then commercial it ?
My guess is that the Federal and State authorities would figure out a co-operative funding arrangement, then put out a tender for a company to provide the required services. It would be worth having a look how other countries manage this type of thing.
Obviousman said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Michael V said:I agree wholeheartedly.
But what happens in the interim ?
Does the Federal government set up a force get everything working together then commercial it ?
My guess is that the Federal and State authorities would figure out a co-operative funding arrangement, then put out a tender for a company to provide the required services. It would be worth having a look how other countries manage this type of thing.
Yes, speed, detection, deployment, outcomes are things of interest in management.
Obviousman said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Maybe a mixture of the two, military and commercial.
We also aren’t unreasonable to expect international help, we’ve offered and given it to others numerous times so should expect offers in return
Exactly. Notice that all the international help are professional firefighters, not military forces.
Yes in a decent world if a disaster strikes help should be offered from everyone
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
Michael V said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
well, it is. The man is correct.
roughbarked said:
Michael V said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
well, it is. The man is correct.
Why is he correct ?
roughbarked said:
Michael V said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
well, it is. The man is correct.
Yes what he said that fuel reduction burns are just one part of the solution not a silver bullet is correct.
Peak Warming Man said:
roughbarked said:
Michael V said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
well, it is. The man is correct.
Yes what he said that fuel reduction burns are just one part of the solution not a silver bullet is correct.
ok.
Computer models
A number of computer models have been developed to help predict the spread and shape of fires across the landscape. The most widely used of these is Phoenix Rapidfire, developed by the Bushfire CRC, the University of Melbourne and various fire agencies. Western Australian authorities used Aurora, a model developed by the University of Western Australia, Landgate and the Bushfire CRC, and CSIRO has developed a new model called Spark.
These models take into account all the factors discussed above that influence the behaviour and spread of the fire. They incorporate meteorological data as well as geographical landscape data like the slope of the land, vegetation type, and the presence of unburnable features like roads or water bodies. Phoenix Rapidfire also incorporates components that deal with spotting and fire suppression options.
https://www.science.org.au/curious/bushfires
Video Link on Spark
Spark: A better way to predict the spread of bushfires
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGMg4tcwTCE&feature=youtu.be
Tau.Neutrino said:
Computer modelsA number of computer models have been developed to help predict the spread and shape of fires across the landscape. The most widely used of these is Phoenix Rapidfire, developed by the Bushfire CRC, the University of Melbourne and various fire agencies. Western Australian authorities used Aurora, a model developed by the University of Western Australia, Landgate and the Bushfire CRC, and CSIRO has developed a new model called Spark.
These models take into account all the factors discussed above that influence the behaviour and spread of the fire. They incorporate meteorological data as well as geographical landscape data like the slope of the land, vegetation type, and the presence of unburnable features like roads or water bodies. Phoenix Rapidfire also incorporates components that deal with spotting and fire suppression options.
https://www.science.org.au/curious/bushfires
Video Link on Spark
Spark: A better way to predict the spread of bushfires
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGMg4tcwTCE&feature=youtu.be
Apps for smartphones could be next
https://play.google.com/store/search?q=fire%20modelling%20app&c=apps
or apps that link into those fire modelling programs
NSW Rural Fire Service has a Fires Near Me App
https://play.google.com/store/search?q=fire%20modelling%20app&c=apps
I cant see any similar apps from other states but they call could be working on one.
Fires Near Me NSW
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.nsw.rfs.firesnearme.nsw
There is a Victorian one. Mr buffy’s smartphone is set to make a noise if anything comes up on VicEmergency within 20km of us.
I don’t know what it is called.
Ah, VicEmergency App. That’s thoughtful.
https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/prepare/#where-do-i-get-information-in-an-emergency
buffy said:
Ah, VicEmergency App. That’s thoughtful.https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/prepare/#where-do-i-get-information-in-an-emergency
Not on Google Play yet
Tau.Neutrino said:
buffy said:
Ah, VicEmergency App. That’s thoughtful.https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/prepare/#where-do-i-get-information-in-an-emergency
Not on Google Play yet
It should be. I can’t remember getting it anywhere else.
Tau.Neutrino said:
buffy said:
Ah, VicEmergency App. That’s thoughtful.https://www.emergency.vic.gov.au/prepare/#where-do-i-get-information-in-an-emergency
Not on Google Play yet
It is on google play not where I was looking
VicEmergency
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.naturallybeing.fireready
I gave you the link.
buffy said:
I gave you the link.
Yes.
Thanks Buffy
too much information passing
I have learnt a lot today
Thanks once again.
By the way, the VicEmergency app has been around for a few years now, and previously there was the Fire Ready app. When I was working, my receptionists smart phone sat on the bench in the workshop and she had it set for a 50km radius. So we knew what was going on in the district all the time. In Summer for fires, other times (and sometimes also in Summer) for floods.
https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/vicemergency-app
I was thinking just a few days ago that very little modelling had been done
Its been done.
Mollwollfumble pointed that out
Thanks Mollwollfumble
buffy said:
By the way, the VicEmergency app has been around for a few years now, and previously there was the Fire Ready app. When I was working, my receptionists smart phone sat on the bench in the workshop and she had it set for a 50km radius. So we knew what was going on in the district all the time. In Summer for fires, other times (and sometimes also in Summer) for floods.https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/vicemergency-app
I didn’t know about that app either.
RB was right.
I had a lot of catching up to do.
Still catching up.
Tau.Neutrino said:
RB was right.I had a lot of catching up to do.
Still catching up.
Please do it. If you are where I think you are, your town has been impacted by fire a couple of times. You need to have a fire plan.
buffy said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
RB was right.I had a lot of catching up to do.
Still catching up.
Please do it. If you are where I think you are, your town has been impacted by fire a couple of times. You need to have a fire plan.
Yes
well Ive installed the VicEmergency app
I’m not too far away from the Creswick Woollen Mills
https://www.creswickwool.com/
Just noticed some mens jumpers I might get
Yes, that is where I thought you were. Creswick was impacted in 2009 and many years ago when Streatham was annihilated Creswick also suffered. Do a Google search on your town name and “bushfire history”.
buffy said:
Yes, that is where I thought you were. Creswick was impacted in 2009 and many years ago when Streatham was annihilated Creswick also suffered. Do a Google search on your town name and “bushfire history”.
Thanks Ill do that Crewirck is a mixture of forest, bushland and farmland
Nearest NSP is the car park behind the Visitor information Centre
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).
You have to learn from history.
Interesting if somewhat arbitrary list for Victoria and some other places here (look at the size of that one in 1851)
http://www.bushfireeducation.vic.edu.au/verve/_resources/Bushfires_in_our_History.pdf
buffy said:
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).You have to learn from history.
Interesting if somewhat arbitrary list for Victoria and some other places here (look at the size of that one in 1851)
http://www.bushfireeducation.vic.edu.au/verve/_resources/Bushfires_in_our_History.pdf
That maybe history, but it is whitemans history and what is overlooked is our dreadful abuse of the land during this period that not only would have added to the problem, but arguably caused the problem. There are many references to the overuse of the axe to chop down trees, which would encourage rampant regrowth something like a seedling box that would readily catch fire, plus carry the flames to the tree tops, the result being raging bushfires destroying everything in their path. These big fires burnt eucalypts that had reached a great age of hundreds of years without having experienced crowning fires, meaning these large fires reaching to the tree tops were not common.
The graziers did not appreciate that it was the Aboriginal burning that killed off most of the shrubs and seedling eucalypts, meaning the lands they stole were not a naturally an open parkland, but was that way due to their management and without it generated a more shrubby and fire prone environment. Then there were the large numbers of people (far more than today) moving around in the inland areas, who were clearing land for farming, looking for work, exploring, prospecting for minerals and mining, plus the stations employed large numbers of people to do all the sheep and livestock husbandry. Such activity and careless use of fire would no doubt have caused many bushfires.
probably need rethink insurance for disasters, presently risk for the insured is seen through insurance, the compensation it promises, and other distortions related
the one in fifty year, or hundred year flood features in peoples imaginations, but not so much the fifty or hundred year dry event, which may extend over a number of years, and the latter potentially causes more damage
Tau.Neutrino said:
RB was right.I had a lot of catching up to do.
Still catching up.
Glad to hear it.
PermeateFree said:
buffy said:
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).You have to learn from history.
Interesting if somewhat arbitrary list for Victoria and some other places here (look at the size of that one in 1851)
http://www.bushfireeducation.vic.edu.au/verve/_resources/Bushfires_in_our_History.pdf
That maybe history, but it is whitemans history and what is overlooked is our dreadful abuse of the land during this period that not only would have added to the problem, but arguably caused the problem. There are many references to the overuse of the axe to chop down trees, which would encourage rampant regrowth something like a seedling box that would readily catch fire, plus carry the flames to the tree tops, the result being raging bushfires destroying everything in their path. These big fires burnt eucalypts that had reached a great age of hundreds of years without having experienced crowning fires, meaning these large fires reaching to the tree tops were not common.
The graziers did not appreciate that it was the Aboriginal burning that killed off most of the shrubs and seedling eucalypts, meaning the lands they stole were not a naturally an open parkland, but was that way due to their management and without it generated a more shrubby and fire prone environment. Then there were the large numbers of people (far more than today) moving around in the inland areas, who were clearing land for farming, looking for work, exploring, prospecting for minerals and mining, plus the stations employed large numbers of people to do all the sheep and livestock husbandry. Such activity and careless use of fire would no doubt have caused many bushfires.
One farmer in Lockhart area employed six thousand Chinese to ringbark trees.
buffy said:
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).You have to learn from history.
It would be an interesting exercise to test the accuracy (both when they were formed and now) of that ‘memory’ process. I believe that traumatic incidents are not the time to be laying down accurate memories, and often find that decisions made based on memories are terribly wrong.
Rule 303 said:
buffy said:
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).You have to learn from history.
It would be an interesting exercise to test the accuracy (both when they were formed and now) of that ‘memory’ process. I believe that traumatic incidents are not the time to be laying down accurate memories, and often find that decisions made based on memories are terribly wrong.
What I’m getting at is these decisions are being formulated based on the observations of a single person, under conditions that are often far from ideal.
Rule 303 said:
Rule 303 said:
buffy said:
One of the things about getting older is you have more memories. Like don’t get out of your car and run, you can’t outrun a grassfire unless you are Gary Dempsey (Geelong Road, Lara fire 1969). Towns are not necessarily safe (Streatham, 1977). Stuff about preparations and being aware (for us, Ash Wednesday, we evacuated and vowed we would never be unprepared again).You have to learn from history.
It would be an interesting exercise to test the accuracy (both when they were formed and now) of that ‘memory’ process. I believe that traumatic incidents are not the time to be laying down accurate memories, and often find that decisions made based on memories are terribly wrong.
What I’m getting at is these decisions are being formulated based on the observations of a single person, under conditions that are often far from ideal.
No, they weren’t. The stay in the car and hunker down was from the research after the Lara fire. Streatham burning was simply a fact. The stuff we got after Ash Wednesday was from the research after that incident. There was a lot of research after Ash Wednesday. Since then there was stuff done after 2009. And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years. Personally I think the recommendations need to be a little more nuanced, ie grass fire’s are different from bushfires and you need to know what your own circumstances are. We went to a community information night about 15 years ago at the local CFA and the video they showed was rather obviously from the Dandenongs. Country nothing like it is here.
buffy said:
Rule 303 said:
Rule 303 said:
It would be an interesting exercise to test the accuracy (both when they were formed and now) of that ‘memory’ process. I believe that traumatic incidents are not the time to be laying down accurate memories, and often find that decisions made based on memories are terribly wrong.
What I’m getting at is these decisions are being formulated based on the observations of a single person, under conditions that are often far from ideal.
No, they weren’t. The stay in the car and hunker down was from the research after the Lara fire. Streatham burning was simply a fact. The stuff we got after Ash Wednesday was from the research after that incident. There was a lot of research after Ash Wednesday. Since then there was stuff done after 2009. And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years. Personally I think the recommendations need to be a little more nuanced, ie grass fire’s are different from bushfires and you need to know what your own circumstances are. We went to a community information night about 15 years ago at the local CFA and the video they showed was rather obviously from the Dandenongs. Country nothing like it is here.
I didn’t mean these memories in particular, but the process of decision-from-memory. If I may give a couple of examples: MumRule was telling me she wont go to a particular doctor because of something she heard he didn’t report 35 years ago. I responded to an emergency in a house where the occupant had very complex medical needs, but would never call an ambulance because of a conversation he thought he over-heard between two paramedics last time he called an ambulance.
These are decisions being made based on a single person’s memory of an incident that may or may not have been accurately remembered, and interpreted, that have very significant flow-on effects. Information that may not have been true at the time, and has not been tested since, is being used to make bad decisions, because it initiates a cascading series of decision errors.
Rule 303 said:
And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years
buffy said:
Rule 303 said:What I’m getting at is these decisions are being formulated based on the observations of a single person, under conditions that are often far from ideal.
No, they weren’t. The stay in the car and hunker down was from the research after the Lara fire. Streatham burning was simply a fact. The stuff we got after Ash Wednesday was from the research after that incident. There was a lot of research after Ash Wednesday. Since then there was stuff done after 2009. And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years. Personally I think the recommendations need to be a little more nuanced, ie grass fire’s are different from bushfires and you need to know what your own circumstances are. We went to a community information night about 15 years ago at the local CFA and the video they showed was rather obviously from the Dandenongs. Country nothing like it is here.
I didn’t mean these memories in particular, but the process of decision-from-memory. If I may give a couple of examples: MumRule was telling me she wont go to a particular doctor because of something she heard he didn’t report 35 years ago. I responded to an emergency in a house where the occupant had very complex medical needs, but would never call an ambulance because of a conversation he thought he over-heard between two paramedics last time he called an ambulance.
These are decisions being made based on a single person’s memory of an incident that may or may not have been accurately remembered, and interpreted, that have very significant flow-on effects. Information that may not have been true at the time, and has not been tested since, is being used to make bad decisions, because it initiates a cascading series of decision errors.
You could have an information session with cold hard facts about staying and fighting versus evacuation showing statistics on how many died defending property compared to dying being evacuated.
Rule 303 said:
buffy said:
Rule 303 said:What I’m getting at is these decisions are being formulated based on the observations of a single person, under conditions that are often far from ideal.
No, they weren’t. The stay in the car and hunker down was from the research after the Lara fire. Streatham burning was simply a fact. The stuff we got after Ash Wednesday was from the research after that incident. There was a lot of research after Ash Wednesday. Since then there was stuff done after 2009. And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years. Personally I think the recommendations need to be a little more nuanced, ie grass fire’s are different from bushfires and you need to know what your own circumstances are. We went to a community information night about 15 years ago at the local CFA and the video they showed was rather obviously from the Dandenongs. Country nothing like it is here.
I didn’t mean these memories in particular, but the process of decision-from-memory. If I may give a couple of examples: MumRule was telling me she wont go to a particular doctor because of something she heard he didn’t report 35 years ago. I responded to an emergency in a house where the occupant had very complex medical needs, but would never call an ambulance because of a conversation he thought he over-heard between two paramedics last time he called an ambulance.
These are decisions being made based on a single person’s memory of an incident that may or may not have been accurately remembered, and interpreted, that have very significant flow-on effects. Information that may not have been true at the time, and has not been tested since, is being used to make bad decisions, because it initiates a cascading series of decision errors.
Ah, like when my father said he and Mum would definitely not be having the flu vaccines because someone told him about a pharmacist who got sick/died or something somewhere once after having the vaccine. And we told him to get vaccinated because dying of flu is painful. I get what you are saying now.
Cymek said:
Rule 303 said:And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years
buffy said:No, they weren’t. The stay in the car and hunker down was from the research after the Lara fire. Streatham burning was simply a fact. The stuff we got after Ash Wednesday was from the research after that incident. There was a lot of research after Ash Wednesday. Since then there was stuff done after 2009. And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the years. Personally I think the recommendations need to be a little more nuanced, ie grass fire’s are different from bushfires and you need to know what your own circumstances are. We went to a community information night about 15 years ago at the local CFA and the video they showed was rather obviously from the Dandenongs. Country nothing like it is here.
I didn’t mean these memories in particular, but the process of decision-from-memory. If I may give a couple of examples: MumRule was telling me she wont go to a particular doctor because of something she heard he didn’t report 35 years ago. I responded to an emergency in a house where the occupant had very complex medical needs, but would never call an ambulance because of a conversation he thought he over-heard between two paramedics last time he called an ambulance.
These are decisions being made based on a single person’s memory of an incident that may or may not have been accurately remembered, and interpreted, that have very significant flow-on effects. Information that may not have been true at the time, and has not been tested since, is being used to make bad decisions, because it initiates a cascading series of decision errors.
You could have an information session with cold hard facts about staying and fighting versus evacuation showing statistics on how many died defending property compared to dying being evacuated.
A particular grizzle of Mr buffy and me is people dressed in shorts, singlets, thongs. No people. Just no. Put the proper clothes on if you are going to do it.
buffy said:
Cymek said:
Rule 303 said:And there has been vacillation between evacuate/be ready and fight etc over the yearsI didn’t mean these memories in particular, but the process of decision-from-memory. If I may give a couple of examples: MumRule was telling me she wont go to a particular doctor because of something she heard he didn’t report 35 years ago. I responded to an emergency in a house where the occupant had very complex medical needs, but would never call an ambulance because of a conversation he thought he over-heard between two paramedics last time he called an ambulance.
These are decisions being made based on a single person’s memory of an incident that may or may not have been accurately remembered, and interpreted, that have very significant flow-on effects. Information that may not have been true at the time, and has not been tested since, is being used to make bad decisions, because it initiates a cascading series of decision errors.
You could have an information session with cold hard facts about staying and fighting versus evacuation showing statistics on how many died defending property compared to dying being evacuated.
A particular grizzle of Mr buffy and me is people dressed in shorts, singlets, thongs. No people. Just no. Put the proper clothes on if you are going to do it.
I’d want to be really sure of myself staying to defend against a fire, it would be a very unpleasant way to die if something went wrong which would be quite easy