Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

We still have our own immune systems. We should be bolstering our own defences by maintaing lifestyles that strengthen these.

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

We still have our own immune systems. We should be bolstering our own defences by maintaing lifestyles that strengthen these.

main tain ing.

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

We still have our own immune systems. We should be bolstering our own defences by maintaing lifestyles that strengthen these.

An excessive immune response is what causes some flu deaths.

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

A virus is “very deadly” when a species dies from it, so you’ve answered your own question.

Have you seen the film, Contagion?

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

We still have our own immune systems. We should be bolstering our own defences by maintaing lifestyles that strengthen these.

An excessive immune response is what causes some flu deaths.

Yes.

PermeateFree said:

I tried submitting some good fake news to the Onion. Rejected. It was too weird for them.

poikilotherm said:

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

What brought this thought on is that it has recently (last year, the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu) been estimated that 10% of the Australian Aboriginal population was killed by the Spanish Flu in 1919-1920.

We still have our own immune systems. We should be bolstering our own defences by maintaing lifestyles that strengthen these.

An excessive immune response is what causes some flu deaths.

cytokine storm as recall, it’s speculated

Divine Angel said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

A virus is “very deadly” when a species dies from it, so you’ve answered your own question.

Have you seen the film, Contagion?

Not that film. I avoid horror movies.

> A virus is “very deadly” when a species dies from it

You could say that. I tend to use deadly for a death rate between 1% and 9%, and very deadly for 10% and over. That’s in addition to the 1.5% that is the average turnover of humans per year due to natural causes.

eg. In the early stages of the SARS epidemic, health officials estimated the mortality rate at less than 4%. More recently, officials have cited rates in the 6% to 7% range.

mollwollfumble said:

Divine Angel said:

mollwollfumble said:

Am I right in thinking that if a very deadly flu strain arrived, humankind would have no defence at all.

Certainly there are flu vaccines, but these couldn’t be produced and distributed anywhere near fast enough to cope with the speed of spread of the flu. And certain types of influenza are immune to Tamiflu and other drugs.

A virus is “very deadly” when a species dies from it, so you’ve answered your own question.

Have you seen the film, Contagion?

Not that film. I avoid horror movies.

> A virus is “very deadly” when a species dies from it

You could say that. I tend to use deadly for a death rate between 1% and 9%, and very deadly for 10% and over. That’s in addition to the 1.5% that is the average turnover of humans per year due to natural causes.

eg. In the early stages of the SARS epidemic, health officials estimated the mortality rate at less than 4%. More recently, officials have cited rates in the 6% to 7% range.

Captain Trips is a bad one

more likely the flu has already been weaponised in military laboratories around the world

the yanks were spreading swine flu around north korea during the war – knock out the food supply.

the american scientist who blew the whistle on the operation took a trip out of the window of a tall building whilst in custody.

wookiemeister said:

more likely the flu has already been weaponised in military laboratories around the world

the yanks were spreading swine flu around north korea during the war – knock out the food supply.

the american scientist who blew the whistle on the operation took a trip out of the window of a tall building whilst in custody.

Any references for these assertions?

Michael V said:

wookiemeister said:

more likely the flu has already been weaponised in military laboratories around the world

the yanks were spreading swine flu around north korea during the war – knock out the food supply.

the american scientist who blew the whistle on the operation took a trip out of the window of a tall building whilst in custody.

Any references for these assertions?

deduction

biological warfare

wookiemeister said:

Michael V said:

wookiemeister said:

more likely the flu has already been weaponised in military laboratories around the world

the yanks were spreading swine flu around north korea during the war – knock out the food supply.

the american scientist who blew the whistle on the operation took a trip out of the window of a tall building whilst in custody.

Any references for these assertions?

deduction

biological warfare

So nothing.

Just assertions.

Michael V said:

wookiemeister said:

Michael V said:

Any references for these assertions?

deduction

biological warfare

So nothing.

Just assertions.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/07/influenza-virus-seen-possible-bioterrorism-weapon

just do a google search

i dare say anyone with a bit of nous could brew something up

for chemical warfare i think some fellah who had access to 1080 had a go at extrorting money from a food company – tasteless colourless deadly – kills most life

wookiemeister said:

Michael V said:

wookiemeister said:

deduction

biological warfare

So nothing.

Just assertions.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/07/influenza-virus-seen-possible-bioterrorism-weapon

just do a google search

i dare say anyone with a bit of nous could brew something up

for chemical warfare i think some fellah who had access to 1080 had a go at extrorting money from a food company – tasteless colourless deadly – kills most life

Ta.

It would not take much effort to weaponize influenza. It could be done without DNA sequencing. I could do it at home.

All you need is samples of a deadly but non-virulent strain and of a non-deadly but virulent strain. and plenty of petri dishes. Grow appropriate (eg. nasal or throat) cell cultures in the petri dishes and infect simultaneously with both viruses. Being built simultaneously in the same cells means you get hybrid viruses, some of which will, if you wait long enough, be both deadly and virulent.

But with a proper lab it would be much easier. Use a shotgun method to blast each virus into long fragments then combine the fragments from multiple viruses together. Then for extra trouble add a mutagen to get more variations.

mollwollfumble said:

wookiemeister said:

Michael V said:

So nothing.

Just assertions.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/07/influenza-virus-seen-possible-bioterrorism-weapon

just do a google search

i dare say anyone with a bit of nous could brew something up

for chemical warfare i think some fellah who had access to 1080 had a go at extrorting money from a food company – tasteless colourless deadly – kills most life

Ta.

It would not take much effort to weaponize influenza. It could be done without DNA sequencing. I could do it at home.

All you need is samples of a deadly but non-virulent strain and of a non-deadly but virulent strain. and plenty of petri dishes. Grow appropriate (eg. nasal or throat) cell cultures in the petri dishes and infect simultaneously with both viruses. Being built simultaneously in the same cells means you get hybrid viruses, some of which will, if you wait long enough, be both deadly and virulent.

But with a proper lab it would be much easier. Use a shotgun method to blast each virus into long fragments then combine the fragments from multiple viruses together. Then for extra trouble add a mutagen to get more variations.

I wondered if CRISPR could be modified to be a biological weapon, it just snips the victims DNA apart

Cymek said:

I wondered if CRISPR could be modified to be a biological weapon, it just snips the victims DNA apart

Is that what The Master did on Doctor Who last week?

As i understood it, he ‘destroyed humanity’ by zapping ‘everyone’ through their smart devices, destroying their DNA.

Although i thought that e.g. Kalahari bushmen, Bedouins on camels out in the desert, those kinds of people would still be around, much to The Master’s annoyance.