Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Discuss.

Woodie said:

Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Discuss.

I doubt it.
Some of us may.

Woodie said:

Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Discuss.

we’re all gunna die. but hopefully not yet.

• Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Eventually…

good idea

You deserve a virus if you drink the cats piss known as Corona.

gaghalfrunt said:

You deserve a virus if you drink the cats piss known as Corona.

A lot of people drink it with a slice of lemon in the neck of the bottle. I would have thought that if you needed to add something to your beer to make it taste good then it mustn’t be a very good beer. But then again, what would I know, people drink VB without trying to disguise the taste…

furious said:

gaghalfrunt said:

You deserve a virus if you drink the cats piss known as Corona.

A lot of people drink it with a slice of lemon in the neck of the bottle. I would have thought that if you needed to add something to your beer to make it taste good then it mustn’t be a very good beer. But then again, what would I know, people drink VB without trying to disguise the taste…

Beer tastes gross not sure how anyone can enjoy it especially as you need to drink a lot to get drunk

Cymek said:

furious said:

gaghalfrunt said:

You deserve a virus if you drink the cats piss known as Corona.

A lot of people drink it with a slice of lemon in the neck of the bottle. I would have thought that if you needed to add something to your beer to make it taste good then it mustn’t be a very good beer. But then again, what would I know, people drink VB without trying to disguise the taste…

Beer tastes gross not sure how anyone can enjoy it especially as you need to drink a lot to get drunk

All beer tastes good when someone else is paying for it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/coronavirus-death-toll-climbs-to-nine-chinese-authorities-say/11889406

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/coronavirus-death-toll-climbs-to-nine-chinese-authorities-say/11889406

1 in 160 000 000 then not bad odds

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/coronavirus-death-toll-climbs-to-nine-chinese-authorities-say/11889406

1 in 160 000 000 then not bad odds

I wonder if that is the real death toll

Cymek said:

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/coronavirus-death-toll-climbs-to-nine-chinese-authorities-say/11889406

1 in 160 000 000 then not bad odds

I wonder if that is the real death toll

I wonder if they testing any medicines on the re-educated?

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/coronavirus-death-toll-climbs-to-nine-chinese-authorities-say/11889406

1 in 160 000 000 then not bad odds

Only 9, yeah, but the original reported death toll from AIDS on Jun 5 1981 was 5 deaths. It wasn’t until Sep 1981, three months later, that the death toll from AIDS had risen to 16.

So too early to tell in the case of this coronavirus.

Peak Warming Man said:

There’s a plane load of chinese all full of coronavirus about to land at Sydney, it’s coming direct from the death city.
When I say all full of the virus the number with the deadly infection has not been confirmed but I’d say there’ll be a fair few, well one or two at least, possibly less.
But yeah.

Copied from chat…

LOL

More info from Auntie:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-spreading-with-new-cases-reported-worldwide/11896038

Michael V said:

More info from Auntie:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-spreading-with-new-cases-reported-worldwide/11896038

And more still:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-came-from-animals-stopping-spread-not-simple/11893420

Michael V said:

Michael V said:

More info from Auntie:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-spreading-with-new-cases-reported-worldwide/11896038

And more still:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-came-from-animals-stopping-spread-not-simple/11893420

like rediscovering the (very old) concept of contagion, by whatever name

i’m whispering now – strikes me that the idea applies to the human replicators

Researchers reckon they can make a vaccine in as little as 16 weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-vaccine-work-starts-with-queensland-researchers/11896346

Divine Angel said:

Researchers reckon they can make a vaccine in as little as 16 weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-vaccine-work-starts-with-queensland-researchers/11896346

How good is Queensland.

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Researchers reckon they can make a vaccine in as little as 16 weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-vaccine-work-starts-with-queensland-researchers/11896346

How good is Queensland.

Which goodness scale would you like the answer in?

The Rev Dodgson said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Researchers reckon they can make a vaccine in as little as 16 weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-vaccine-work-starts-with-queensland-researchers/11896346

How good is Queensland.

Which goodness scale would you like the answer in?

raspberry.

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Peak Warming Man said:

How good is Queensland.

Which goodness scale would you like the answer in?

raspberry.

In that case Queensland goodness = pi.

The Rev Dodgson said:

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Which goodness scale would you like the answer in?

raspberry.

In that case Queensland goodness = pi.

Golf clap.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Researchers reckon they can make a vaccine in as little as 16 weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/coronavirus-vaccine-work-starts-with-queensland-researchers/11896346

How good is Queensland.

Which goodness scale would you like the answer in?

16 weeks is a long time if it becomes deadly to most and spreads everywhere add in what else goes wrong when everyone is dropping dead and then Randall Flagg turns up

China exports killer virus to Australia…

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/first-confirmed-coronavirus-case-australian-as-china-toll-rises/11900428

Michael V said:

China exports killer virus to Australia…

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/first-confirmed-coronavirus-case-australian-as-china-toll-rises/11900428

There is more than one corona viruses. They need to confirm that the one he has is the Wuhan variant.

buffy said:

Michael V said:

China exports killer virus to Australia…

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/first-confirmed-coronavirus-case-australian-as-china-toll-rises/11900428

There is more than one corona viruses. They need to confirm that the one he has is the Wuhan variant.

As I read it, they have confirmed that.

Coronavirus affects lobster prices

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/coronavirus-puts-wa-crayfishing-industry-on-hold/11900668

All of the updates on the new coronavirus

Scientists Predict Wuhan’s Outbreak Will Get Much Worse

Three confirmed in Sydney, one in Victoria:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-26/australian-health-officials-race-to-trace-airline-passengers-wh/11901274

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-26/coronavirus-wuhan-bans-cars-to-build-second-new-hospital/11901246

buffy said:

Michael V said:

China exports killer virus to Australia…

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/first-confirmed-coronavirus-case-australian-as-china-toll-rises/11900428

There is more than one corona viruses. They need to confirm that the one he has is the Wuhan variant.

Indeed.

40 deaths so far? 1,300 infected? I may not be up to date.

If anyone’s interested, the coronavirus’s genome has now been sequenced, and is available on Geneweb:

Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome. I think the fact that the last 33 nucleotides are a is very interesting, and can’t help wondering why. Sequencing artifact, perhaps?

The Chinese have started moving into Africa

When one of them walks into an African nation with no real health system, detection system you’ll see a huge bump in infection.

btm said:

If anyone’s interested, the coronavirus’s genome has now been sequenced, and is available on Geneweb:

Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome. I think the fact that the last 33 nucleotides are a is very interesting, and can’t help wondering why. Sequencing artifact, perhaps?

Apparently not. According to Requirement of the Poly(A) Tail in Coronavirus Genome Replication, it’s a requirement for virus replication.
abstract in link said:

The 3’ poly (A) tail plays an important, but as yet undefined role in Coronavirus genome replication. To further examine the requirement for the Coronavirus poly(A) tail, we created truncated poly(A) mutant defective interfering (DI) RNAs and observed the effects on replication. Bovine Coronavirus (BCV) and mouse hepatitis Coronavirus A59 (MHV-A59) DI RNAs with tails of 5 or 10 A residues were replicated, albeit at delayed kinetics as compared to DI RNAs with wild type tail lengths (>50 A residues). A BCV DI RNA lacking a poly(A) tail was unable to replicate; however, a MHV DI lacking a tail did replicate following multiple virus passages. Poly(A) tail extension/repair was concurrent with robust replication of the tail mutants. Binding of the host factor poly(A)- binding protein (PABP) appeared to correlate with the ability of DI RNAs to be replicated. Poly(A) tail mutants that were compromised for replication, or that were unable to replicate at all exhibited less in vitro PABP interaction. The data support the importance of the poly(A) tail in Coronavirus replication and further delineate the minimal requirements for viral genome propagation.

wookiemeister said:

The Chinese have started moving into Africa

When one of them walks into an African nation with no real health system, detection system you’ll see a huge bump in infection.

They’re already there.

About a million Chinese citizens in Africa, including Cameroon, Zambia, Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola, and Kenya. working on various projects, in and out, going to and from China.

You won’t be getting world-class health care in e.g. Angola or Congo, and the Chinese won’t exactly encourage you to come home if you’ve got the bug.

btm said:

btm said:

If anyone’s interested, the coronavirus’s genome has now been sequenced, and is available on Geneweb:

Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome. I think the fact that the last 33 nucleotides are a is very interesting, and can’t help wondering why. Sequencing artifact, perhaps?

Apparently not. According to Requirement of the Poly(A) Tail in Coronavirus Genome Replication, it’s a requirement for virus replication.
abstract in link said:

The 3’ poly (A) tail plays an important, but as yet undefined role in Coronavirus genome replication. To further examine the requirement for the Coronavirus poly(A) tail, we created truncated poly(A) mutant defective interfering (DI) RNAs and observed the effects on replication. Bovine Coronavirus (BCV) and mouse hepatitis Coronavirus A59 (MHV-A59) DI RNAs with tails of 5 or 10 A residues were replicated, albeit at delayed kinetics as compared to DI RNAs with wild type tail lengths (>50 A residues). A BCV DI RNA lacking a poly(A) tail was unable to replicate; however, a MHV DI lacking a tail did replicate following multiple virus passages. Poly(A) tail extension/repair was concurrent with robust replication of the tail mutants. Binding of the host factor poly(A)- binding protein (PABP) appeared to correlate with the ability of DI RNAs to be replicated. Poly(A) tail mutants that were compromised for replication, or that were unable to replicate at all exhibited less in vitro PABP interaction. The data support the importance of the poly(A) tail in Coronavirus replication and further delineate the minimal requirements for viral genome propagation.

That’s fascinating. It makes me wonder what the minimum requirements are for virus replication. For example, could one set up a random genetic code with poly(A) tail and get a replication?

Level the site and install dongas, apparently. Gosh there’s a lot of diggers there.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-26/how-can-china-build-a-coronaviurs-hospital-in-a-week/11901646

I think someone’s cocked up.
The plane carrying the people from the infected city was headline news before it landed in Sydney.
The authorities should have had the list of passengers and required them to give details of where they were staying and their intended ongoing schedule.
Now they are running around trying to find them all, apparently.

Peak Warming Man said:

I think someone’s cocked up.
The plane carrying the people from the infected city was headline news before it landed in Sydney.
The authorities should have had the list of passengers and required them to give details of where they were staying and their intended ongoing schedule.
Now they are running around trying to find them all, apparently.

But maybe they did and the news stories saying they are running around trying to find them is really that they are looking for them using the forwarding addresses given.

Peak Warming Man said:

Peak Warming Man said:

I think someone’s cocked up.
The plane carrying the people from the infected city was headline news before it landed in Sydney.
The authorities should have had the list of passengers and required them to give details of where they were staying and their intended ongoing schedule.
Now they are running around trying to find them all, apparently.

But maybe they did and the news stories saying they are running around trying to find them is really that they are looking for them using the forwarding addresses given.

You are supposed to give a contact address on the immigration form for entering the country.

“The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China’s National Health Commission has said, with nearly 3,000 people in China infected and 80 killed by the virus.”

and

“China’s National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei said the incubation period for the virus could range from one to 14 days, and the virus was infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-27/coronavirus-strengthening-spread-infectious-during-incubation/11902378

Michael V said:

“The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China’s National Health Commission has said, with nearly 3,000 people in China infected and 80 killed by the virus.”

and

“China’s National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei said the incubation period for the virus could range from one to 14 days, and the virus was infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-27/coronavirus-strengthening-spread-infectious-during-incubation/11902378

Yeah, that incubation period thing is concerning.

Peak Warming Man said:

Michael V said:

“The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China’s National Health Commission has said, with nearly 3,000 people in China infected and 80 killed by the virus.”

and

“China’s National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei said the incubation period for the virus could range from one to 14 days, and the virus was infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-27/coronavirus-strengthening-spread-infectious-during-incubation/11902378

Yeah, that incubation period thing is concerning.

It’s a major worry for me. My treatment removes my neutrophils so I have little or no immune system. I can catch anything I happen to encounter.

Rule 303 said:

Are we talking about our state pandemic health emergency response plans yet? Did we even know they existed?

The long incubation period (and it looks like we’re infectious for the whole incubation) is a bit of a worry.

(from Chat)

Yes. That a person might be infectious for 14+ days before symptoms start is quite concerning.

The latest from Auntie about this:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/coronavirus-queensland-boarding-school-quarantines-students/11903660

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/coronavirus-what-happens-when-infected/11904062

Woodie said:

Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Discuss.

The coronavirus was made in China so it should last about three months.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Woodie said:

Come on you lot. Are we all gunna die or what?

Discuss.

The coronavirus was made in China so it should last about three months.

Presses “Like” button.

The latest from Auntie about this:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/coronavirus-death-toll-passes-100-chinese-authorities-say/11906128

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Tau.Neutrino said:

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

so 2% death rate, nice odds

Tau.Neutrino said:

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Low mortality at 2.2%

SCIENCE said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

so 2% death rate, nice odds

And they’re even better if you’re not old and decrepit. Maybe this will ‘solve’ China’s aging population dilemma.

buffy said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Low mortality at 2.2%

Let’s hope it stays that way.

Witty Rejoinder said:

SCIENCE said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Coronavirus latest figures

132 dead
confirmed cases 5,974
under quarantine 50 million

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

so 2% death rate, nice odds

And they’re even better if you’re not old and decrepit. Maybe this will ‘solve’ China’s aging population dilemma.

might be engineered that way ¿

price-gouging vendors … have been charging up to six times the regular amount for protective masks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/chinese-store-fined-for-protective-mask-price-hike/11911374

Ah, good ol’ capitalism.

SCIENCE said:

price-gouging vendors … have been charging up to six times the regular amount for protective masks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/chinese-store-fined-for-protective-mask-price-hike/11911374

Ah, good ol’ capitalism.

Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

Witty Rejoinder said:

SCIENCE said:

price-gouging vendors … have been charging up to six times the regular amount for protective masks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/chinese-store-fined-for-protective-mask-price-hike/11911374

Ah, good ol’ capitalism.

Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

And yet if you do it with a taxi service app it’s called ‘surge pricing’ …

Here’s The Science on How Serious The Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Actually Is
https://www.sciencealert.com/how-worried-should-we-be-about-the-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak?

from the link

Scientists at Britain’s Imperial College estimate that each coronavirus patient infects on average 2.6 others – making it roughly as infectious as annual influenza outbreaks.

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Sorry, wrong thread. Bite me.

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

Coronavirus: Australian scientists first to recreate virus outside China

from link

Scientists in Australia have become the first to recreate the new coronavirus outside of China in what they have called a “significant breakthrough”.

The discovery will be shared with the World Health Organization (WHO) in the hope it may help efforts to diagnose and treat the virus.

Scientists in China have also recreated the virus and shared its genome sequence, but not the virus itself.

The outbreak has killed 132 people in China and infected close to 6,000.

Rule 303 said:

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Sorry, wrong thread. Bite me.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

Maybe the buckling only happens when you run 45ton over them 12 times a minute for three minutes?

Just a guess.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/train-derailed2-1/11911600?fbclid=IwAR2WuafQIBSD2zXpttpfCuuHtk09r9YRdyFNPBad7pVkJm4llSBHjibWrOc

Somebody has been letting the Work Experience kid write the press releases at Aunty again.

Rule 303 said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

Maybe the buckling only happens when you run 45ton over them 12 times a minute for three minutes?

Just a guess.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/train-derailed2-1/11911600?fbclid=IwAR2WuafQIBSD2zXpttpfCuuHtk09r9YRdyFNPBad7pVkJm4llSBHjibWrOc

Somebody has been letting the Work Experience kid write the press releases at Aunty again.

ok, I have a better understanding now

well build buckling sensors into some of the wheels

the driver can get a better sense of which speed to move at

Wuhan coronavirus continues its global spread with more than 6,000 cases

Tau.Neutrino said:

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

be that coefficient of linear thermal expansion or whatever it’s called, i’ve got a shed load of expansion gaps I could sell them, just need fit them between the ends of railway irons

transition said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Rule 303 said:

The Train Man tells me the derailment on the Syd-Mel line was a heat buckle.

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

be that coefficient of linear thermal expansion or whatever it’s called, i’ve got a shed load of expansion gaps I could sell them, just need fit them between the ends of railway irons

Rails are welded these days. They have no need for expansion plates. (or so I’m told)

Rule 303 said:

transition said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

be that coefficient of linear thermal expansion or whatever it’s called, i’ve got a shed load of expansion gaps I could sell them, just need fit them between the ends of railway irons

Rails are welded these days. They have no need for expansion plates. (or so I’m told)

must be using clock pendulum metal

Rule 303 said:

transition said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Why cant all trains have a bot vehicle running further up in front?

run them on hot days when buckling is likely to occur.

make them small and light but able to detect line buckling

be that coefficient of linear thermal expansion or whatever it’s called, i’ve got a shed load of expansion gaps I could sell them, just need fit them between the ends of railway irons

Rails are welded these days. They have no need for expansion plates. (or so I’m told)

plus they are stretched before welding i believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_(rail_transport)#Continuous_welded_rail

yes, stretched.

ChrispenEvan said:

Rule 303 said:

transition said:

be that coefficient of linear thermal expansion or whatever it’s called, i’ve got a shed load of expansion gaps I could sell them, just need fit them between the ends of railway irons

Rails are welded these days. They have no need for expansion plates. (or so I’m told)

plus they are stretched before welding i believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_(rail_transport)#Continuous_welded_rail

yes, stretched.

I think the speed of the change is more important than the total change in length with temperature.

What we know about novel coronavirus so far
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/what-we-know-about-novel-coronavirus-so-far

Everything you need to know about the coronavirus from China
https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/23/21078457/coronavirus-outbreak-china-wuhan-quarantine-who-sars-cdc-symptoms-risk

Coronavirus explained: What do we know so far?
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-explained-what-do-we-know-so-far/

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Wuhan coronavirus has killed 132 people and infected more than 6,000. Here’s everything we know about the outbreak.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

That’s one way to get out of my monthly chemo.

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

and we’re all going be taxed before the end as well!!!

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

That’s not the death rate…

Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

ChrispenEvan said:

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

and we’re all going be taxed before the end as well!!!

I want to go on a government subsidised two week holiday to Christmas Island…

• Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

Looks like they’re adding to the carbon pollution…

A disturbing new report says China is cremating bodies

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

Panic!

>runs around, flailing arms<

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

That’s not the death rate…

Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

Yikes!

Sure, 100,000,000 is only 1/14th the population of China, but still…

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

That’s not the death rate…

Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

Yikes!

Sure, 100,000,000 is only 1/14th the population of China, but still…

Just extend it another 2 or 3 days.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

That’s not the death rate…

Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

Yikes!

Sure, 100,000,000 is only 1/14th the population of China, but still…

Just extend it another 2 or 3 days.

LOL

Um what.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/best-place-to-sit-on-a-plane-to-avoid-contracting-coronavirus-according-to-study/news-story/4e6e5372426d8b8942a87e30fb1ce50f

The Rev Dodgson said:

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

That’s not the death rate…

Anyway, a bit of culling of the population might assist the rates of extinctions and carbon pollution.

Yikes!

Sure, 100,000,000 is only 1/14th the population of China, but still…

Just extend it another 2 or 3 days.

Yeah, after that, Mr. Shithole will be running a country with a population equal to that of Montenegro.

He won’t cut such a figure on the world stage then.

captain_spalding said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Rule 303 said:

Yikes!

Sure, 100,000,000 is only 1/14th the population of China, but still…

Just extend it another 2 or 3 days.

Yeah, after that, Mr. Shithole will be running a country with a population equal to that of Montenegro.

He won’t cut such a figure on the world stage then.

?

There will be no-one left to do any cutting of figures.

Divine Angel said:

Um what.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/best-place-to-sit-on-a-plane-to-avoid-contracting-coronavirus-according-to-study/news-story/4e6e5372426d8b8942a87e30fb1ce50f

Best place to sit on a plane is right up the back. Ever heard of a plane backing into a mountain?

Woodie said:

Divine Angel said:

Um what.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/best-place-to-sit-on-a-plane-to-avoid-contracting-coronavirus-according-to-study/news-story/4e6e5372426d8b8942a87e30fb1ce50f

Best place to sit on a plane is right up the back. Ever heard of a plane backing into a mountain?

Whilst it does not explicitly say it in this article, I have heard elsewhere that this flight attendant survived a Guinness World Record highest fall without a parachute, in the rear section of the plane…

Vesna Vulović – JAT Flight 367

furious said:

Woodie said:

Divine Angel said:

Um what.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/best-place-to-sit-on-a-plane-to-avoid-contracting-coronavirus-according-to-study/news-story/4e6e5372426d8b8942a87e30fb1ce50f

Best place to sit on a plane is right up the back. Ever heard of a plane backing into a mountain?

Whilst it does not explicitly say it in this article, I have heard elsewhere that this flight attendant survived a Guinness World Record highest fall without a parachute, in the rear section of the plane…

Vesna Vulović – JAT Flight 367

Yeah but were they safe from coronavirus????

Rule 303 said:

Woodie said:

We’re all gunna die!!!!!

Panic!

>runs around, flailing arms<

My brother (an engineer, and a civil one at that) graphed his firstborn’s weight gain after birth. It was initially exponential. And we called her Ten/Two Ton Tess from Tasmania for a while because he worked out when she would reach those levels. I doubt she remembers the teasing now she is 23 though.

In fairness though we really are all going to die

Fiction always has some deadly virus/disease worse case scenario I wonder how it would play out in the real world, would you get the same coverups and incompetence that makes the situation far worse

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

I put this up on the FB ABC story…

The Coronavirus is a weaponised nanobot which is powered by the 5G network. Remember, you heard it here first.

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

Wire brush and dettol.

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

yeah I seen some of it, lot of untreatables attracted to the platforms, they get all liberated, against the forces of repression, looking for truth they are, conspiracy theory is easier I guess than thought disorder

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

I just commented on that article on fb. I said, “go ahead, drink bleach. Weed yourself out of the gene pool.” Someone immediately responded with, “Don’t say that, someone could take you serious. Kids could read this.”

Me: “Some people already are taking this seriously, that’s the whole point of the article…”

Dimwits.

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

Takes all types, it seems.

Michael V said:

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

Takes all types, it seems.

You can gargle with salt water solution instead of using mouth wash but not for the Coronavirus

VicForests has been forced to immediately stop logging in parts of Victoria’s central highlands after the supreme court granted an injunction to a citizen science group pushing for a stop to logging of unburnt areas in the wake of bushfires.

Wildlife of the Central Highlands (Wotch) has launched a fresh case against VicForests in a bid to stop logging of threatened species habitat after the country’s unprecedented fire season.

Late on Wednesday, the court granted an interim injunction to halt clearing of forest in three coupes that were being logged. A larger injunction covering 10 coupes for the duration of the case will be sought when the matter is before the court again in February.

more..

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/30/court-orders-logging-to-stop-in-parts-of-victorias-central-highlands-after-fires

Michael V said:

captain_spalding said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-01-30/social-media-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-youtube-tiktok/11912590

‘‘Rumour: You can protect yourself by drinking bleach

On Facebook, a number of private groups focused on the disease have emerged in recent days.

While some users in these spaces are asking for advice about masks and protective measures, others are sharing erroneous theories about both the cause of coronavirus and potential solutions.

Posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook have suggested people rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection, which is not recommended, according to AFP Factcheck.

The Daily Beast also found promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory dangerously advising fans to drink bleach in an attempt to ward off the illness.

some Darwin awards coming up, i reckon.

Takes all types, it seems.

surely that’s not dangerous but good for the world though

Divine Angel said:

Um what.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/best-place-to-sit-on-a-plane-to-avoid-contracting-coronavirus-according-to-study/news-story/4e6e5372426d8b8942a87e30fb1ce50f

obviously it’s the pilot seat, not just because they have the most windows

New visualization tool lets public track spread of Wuhan coronavirus

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have released a dashboard that lets users track and visualize the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak on a daily basis. The data is overlaid on a map of the world showing reported cases of infection highlighted in red, and the locations of fatalities denoted by an ‘x’.

more…

Dashboard program here

Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)

The latest from Auntie about this:

“The World Health Organisation (WHO) says coronavirus is a public health emergency of international concern, after a third meeting about the new virus in Geneva.

It is only the sixth time WHO has declared an international emergency of this kind.

It will mean a greater focus on a worldwide response and more screening at airports.

WHO said the greatest concern was the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems.

The organisation does not recommend limiting trade and movement due to the virus outbreak.

The disease has killed 170 people in China, with 7,818 cases confirmed by Chinese health authorities.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/who-coronavirus-global-emergency/11916276

What were the other five emergencies?

Divine Angel said:

What were the other five emergencies?

2009 Swine flu declaration
2014 Polio declaration
2014 Ebola declaration
2016 Zika virus declaration
2018–20 Kivu Ebola declaration
2020 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern

ABC News:

‘An Adelaide-based space company is developing the world’s largest privately operated rocket test range near Koonibba, in the far west of South Australia.’

Southern Launch CEO Lloyd Damp with Alvin Austin and Latakia Doolan from Koonibba.

Would you trust a rocket company whose CEO doesn’t know how to hold a paper plane?

Wrong thread. Sorry, it’s early for me.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/coronavirus-map-tracks-spread-throughout-world/11912828

What Mr Neutrino posted last night, with a discussion on it’s limitations.

Australian-made coronavirus copy reaches high-security CSIRO laboratory in Geelong

Australian scientists are aiming to hit a 16-week deadline to test vaccine for the coronavirus on humans, after the CSIRO animal testing facility in Geelong today received the lab-grown version of the disease.

more…

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

What were the other five emergencies?

2009 Swine flu declaration
2014 Polio declaration
2014 Ebola declaration
2016 Zika virus declaration
2018–20 Kivu Ebola declaration
2020 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern

I remember the swine flu one. I thought SARS might have been there too. Dont think australia had any reported cases of ebola or polio in those years. I recall zika being a big tning at the time, the royals were caught up in it.

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

What were the other five emergencies?

2009 Swine flu declaration
2014 Polio declaration
2014 Ebola declaration
2016 Zika virus declaration
2018–20 Kivu Ebola declaration
2020 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern

I remember the swine flu one. I thought SARS might have been there too. Dont think australia had any reported cases of ebola or polio in those years. I recall zika being a big tning at the time, the royals were caught up in it.

The haphazard response to SARS was what brought about this WHO international protocol.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

2009 Swine flu declaration
2014 Polio declaration
2014 Ebola declaration
2016 Zika virus declaration
2018–20 Kivu Ebola declaration
2020 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern

I remember the swine flu one. I thought SARS might have been there too. Dont think australia had any reported cases of ebola or polio in those years. I recall zika being a big tning at the time, the royals were caught up in it.

The haphazard response to SARS was what brought about this WHO international protocol.

Oh, ok.

Divine Angel said:

Some masks are better than others.

Divine Angel said:

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some masks are better than others.

You could have a whole line of them various superhero/villain themes

look for loose areas and close them up

under the chin

both sides of the nose

Cymek said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some masks are better than others.

You could have a whole line of them various superhero/villain themes

Mask of Zorro will have stay home.

Divine Angel said:

Has that bloke got a blood nose?

Divine Angel said:

Ah I see it now.

:)

Divine Angel said:

There was a patent issued for a bra which was actually designed to be broken down into two face masks in an emergency.

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Has that bloke got a blood nose?

Years ago, a NSW Ambulance bloke told me that they always had a good stock of heavy duty sanitary pads in the wagon.

He said that they were good for the walking wounded.

‘Here, hold this over it and i’ll get back to you as quick as i can’, and then on to the more seriously hurt.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Ah I see it now.

:)

it’s in the shape of a cross, maybe jesus will save these asian unbelievers

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Has that bloke got a blood nose?

LOL

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

“You can’t patent a disease condition per se, such as cancer or influenza,” says Schwartz. “But if you’re talking about patenting a lifeform like a bacteria or virus, if altered by man, the answer there is yes.“Jun 12, 2013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/can-you-patent-a-disease-1.1355379

Different countries = different laws.

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

sarahs mum said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

I believe so.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

“You can’t patent a disease condition per se, such as cancer or influenza,” says Schwartz. “But if you’re talking about patenting a lifeform like a bacteria or virus, if altered by man, the answer there is yes.“Jun 12, 2013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/can-you-patent-a-disease-1.1355379

Different countries = different laws.

Yes, but why?

sarahs mum said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

“You can’t patent a disease condition per se, such as cancer or influenza,” says Schwartz. “But if you’re talking about patenting a lifeform like a bacteria or virus, if altered by man, the answer there is yes.“Jun 12, 2013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/can-you-patent-a-disease-1.1355379

Different countries = different laws.

Patents would exist for vaccines and intellectual property etc

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

“You can’t patent a disease condition per se, such as cancer or influenza,” says Schwartz. “But if you’re talking about patenting a lifeform like a bacteria or virus, if altered by man, the answer there is yes.“Jun 12, 2013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/can-you-patent-a-disease-1.1355379

Different countries = different laws.

I wonder how much is has to differ to not infringe of the patent, one or two genes ?

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

The only point in it is killing off people you don’t like. This only works of course if you have some kind of vaccine or antidote for it.

Cymek said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

“You can’t patent a disease condition per se, such as cancer or influenza,” says Schwartz. “But if you’re talking about patenting a lifeform like a bacteria or virus, if altered by man, the answer there is yes.“Jun 12, 2013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/can-you-patent-a-disease-1.1355379

Different countries = different laws.

I wonder how much is has to differ to not infringe of the patent, one or two genes ?

I dont know.

Colds can mutate fast.

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

The only point in it is killing off people you don’t like. This only works of course if you have some kind of vaccine or antidote for it.

One does wonder if in the future it could become a means of killing of one specific person and it could look like an accident

Michael V said:

sarahs mum said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

transition said:

Michael V said:

sarahs mum said:

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influenza viruses (10–15%), adenoviruses (5%), human respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and metapneumovirus. Frequently more than one virus is present. In total over 200 viral types are associated with colds

transition said:

Michael V said:

sarahs mum said:

Aren’t some common colds coronaviruseseses..?

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

I wonder if various nations will compete and bring out their own version

Fostervirus
Budweiservirus
Duffvirus

Cymek said:

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

The only point in it is killing off people you don’t like. This only works of course if you have some kind of vaccine or antidote for it.

One does wonder if in the future it could become a means of killing of one specific person and it could look like an accident

Didn’t one of the Bond movies feature something like that?

Cymek said:

party_pants said:

Divine Angel said:

Some conspuracy theories are saying that a coronavirus was patented in 2015, granted in 2018, and is a BIG PHARMA dealio to get money from vaccines.

Ok cool, but this strain is not the same one that was patented.

Now, what is the point of patenting a virus?

The only point in it is killing off people you don’t like. This only works of course if you have some kind of vaccine or antidote for it.

One does wonder if in the future it could become a means of killing of one specific person and it could look like an accident

Nah. Too dangerous. If you are after just one person go for some other “accident” like a car crash, or electrical fault or a leaky gas pipe in their home. Even a bungled mugging and stabbling would do.

transition said:

transition said:

Michael V said:

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influenza viruses (10–15%), adenoviruses (5%), human respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and metapneumovirus. Frequently more than one virus is present. In total over 200 viral types are associated with colds

That’s the one I had, a picorn virus. With effects ranging all the way from a mild sniffle to cerebral meningitis.

This was the doctor

AwesomeO said:

This was the doctor

same doctor as bubblecar

transition said:

transition said:

Michael V said:

Yes. IIRC all common colds are coronaviruses.

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influenza viruses (10–15%), adenoviruses (5%), human respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and metapneumovirus. Frequently more than one virus is present. In total over 200 viral types are associated with colds

Ta.

AwesomeO said:

This was the doctor

got a beak

:-)

AwesomeO said:

This was the doctor

Dr Snaggletooth, otherwise known as “The Count”.

Michael V said:

transition said:

transition said:

human coronavirus (≈ 15%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influenza viruses (10–15%), adenoviruses (5%), human respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and metapneumovirus. Frequently more than one virus is present. In total over 200 viral types are associated with colds

Ta.

reckon US military use to immunize against adenoviruses, can’t be sure now

I see China is going viral on social media.

Tau.Neutrino said:

I see China is going viral on social media.

So is Corona…

furious said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

I see China is going viral on social media.

So is Corona…

I think that the Betoota Advocate made the ‘Corona’virus joke about a week ago.

Anybody been tracking the death toll as a function of time?

Very early estimate (from yesterday) 2% death rate.

213 dead on 30 Jan
170 dead on 29 Jan
132 dead on 28 Jan
106 dead on 28 Jan
81 dead on 27 Jan
80 dead on 27 Jan
56 dead on 26 Jan
41 dead on 24 Jan
25 dead on 23 Jan
17 dead on 22 Jan
6 dead on 21 Jan
1 dead on 11 Jan
0 dead on 5 Jan

Is the death toll roughly doubling each day? Let’s see.
Not quite, but the death toll is growing exponentially.

From trendline, 2% of world population, 155,000,000 people, are expected to be dead in 76 days from the start of Jan 2020.
That’s Mon 16 March
Check that your will is up to date by then.

Made in China
Will the Wuhan virus become a pandemic?
Probably. But public health services can help determine how severe it turns out to be

Jan 30th 2020
Two things explain why a new infectious disease is so alarming. One is that, at first, it spreads exponentially. As tens of cases become hundreds and hundreds become thousands, the mathematics run away with you, conjuring speculation about a health-care collapse, social and economic upheaval and a deadly pandemic. The other is profound uncertainty. Sparse data and conflicting reports mean that scientists cannot rule out the worst case—and that lets bad information thrive.

So it is with a new coronavirus, known as 2019-ncov, which has struck in China. The number of reported cases grew from 282 on January 20th to almost 7,800 just nine days later. In that time four reported cases outside mainland China have multiplied to 105 in 19 territories. Doubt clouds fundamental properties of the disease, including how it is passed on and what share of infected people die. Amid the uncertainty, a simulation of a coronavirus outbreak by Johns Hopkins University in October, in which 65m people lost their lives, was put about as a prediction. It is not.

Those are the right questions, though: will the new virus become a global disease? And how deadly will it be? A definite answer is weeks or months away, but public-health authorities have to plan today. The best guess is that the disease has taken hold in China (see article) and there is a high risk that it spreads around the world—it may even become a recurrent seasonal infection. It may turn out to be no more lethal than seasonal influenza, but that would still count as serious (see article). In the short term that would hit the world economy and, depending on how the outbreak is handled, it could also have political effects in China.

The outbreak began in December. The repeated mingling of people and animals in China means that viral mutations that infect humans are likely to arise there; and mass migration to cities means that they are likely to spread between people. This virus probably originated in bats and passed through mammals, such as palm civets or ferret badgers, ending up in Wuhan’s wet market, where wild animals were on sale. Symptoms resemble flu, but can include pneumonia, which may be fatal. About 20% of reported cases are severe, and need hospital care; about 2% of them have been fatal. As yet, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment.

The greatest uncertainty is how many cases have gone unrecorded. Primary health care is rudimentary in China and some of the ill either avoided or were turned away from busy hospitals. Many more may have such mild symptoms that they do not realise they have the disease. Modelling by academics in Hong Kong suggests that, as of January 25th, tens of thousands of people have already been infected and that the epidemic will peak in a few months’ time. If so, the virus is more widespread than thought, and hence will be harder to contain within China. But it will also prove less lethal, because the number of deaths should be measured against a much larger base of infections. As with flu, a lot of people could die nonetheless. In 2017-18 a bad flu season saw symptoms in 45m Americans, and 61,000 deaths.

Scientists have started work on vaccines and on treatments to make infections less severe. These are six to 12 months away, so the world must fall back on public-health measures. In China that has led to the biggest quarantine in history, as Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province have been sealed off. The impact of such draconian measures has rippled throughout China. The spring holiday has been extended, keeping schools and businesses closed. The economy is running on the home-delivery of food and goods.

Many experts praise China’s efforts. Certainly, its scientists have coped better with the Wuhan virus than they did with sars in 2003, rapidly detecting it, sequencing its genome, licensing diagnostic kits and informing international bodies. China’s politicians come off less well. They left alone the cramped markets filled with wild animals that spawned sars. With the new virus, local officials in Wuhan first played down the science and then, when the disease had taken hold, enacted the draconian quarantine fully eight hours after announcing it, allowing perhaps 1m potentially infectious people to leave the city first.

That may have undermined a measure which is taking a substantial toll. China’s growth in the first quarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almost a fifth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent on global growth. Though the economy will bounce back when the virus fades, the reputation of the Communist Party and even of Xi Jinping may be more lastingly affected (see article). The party claims that, armed with science, it is more efficient at governing than democracies. The heavy-handed failure to contain the virus suggests otherwise.

Outside China such quarantines are unthinkable. The medical and economic cost will depend on governments slowing the disease’s spread. The way to do this is by isolating cases as soon as they crop up and tracing and quarantining people that victims have been in contact with—indeed, if the disease burns out in China, that might yet stop the pandemic altogether. If, by contrast, that proves inadequate, they could shut schools, discourage travel and urge the cancellation of public events. Buying time in this way has advantages even if it does not completely stop the disease. Health-care systems would have a greater chance to prepare for the onslaught, and to empty beds that are now full of people with seasonal flu.

Despite all those efforts the epidemic could still be severe. Some health systems, in Africa and the slums of Asia’s vast cities, will not be able to isolate patients and trace contacts. Much depends on whether people are infectious when their symptoms are mild (or before they show any at all, as some reports suggest), because such people are hard to spot. And also on whether the virus mutates to become more transmissible or lethal.

The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. sars, mers, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine flu: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/01/30/will-the-wuhan-virus-become-a-pandemic?

Witty Rejoinder said:

Made in China
Will the Wuhan virus become a pandemic?
Probably. But public health services can help determine how severe it turns out to be

Jan 30th 2020
Two things explain why a new infectious disease is so alarming. One is that, at first, it spreads exponentially. As tens of cases become hundreds and hundreds become thousands, the mathematics run away with you, conjuring speculation about a health-care collapse, social and economic upheaval and a deadly pandemic. The other is profound uncertainty. Sparse data and conflicting reports mean that scientists cannot rule out the worst case—and that lets bad information thrive. | | | |
The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. sars, mers, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine flu: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/01/30/will-the-wuhan-virus-become-a-pandemic?

FMD…….. goes on about “conjuring speculation about a health-care collapse, social and economic upheaval and a deadly pandemic” then prompty does the same thing in that article.

CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
How Beijing kept the world in the dark as coronavirus spread
By Chris Buckley and Steven Lee Myers

FEBRUARY 2, 2020

Wuhan: A mysterious illness had stricken seven patients at a hospital, and a doctor tried to warn his medical school classmates. “Quarantined in the emergency department,” the doctor, Li Wenliang, wrote in an online chat group on December 30, referring to patients.

“So frightening,” one recipient replied, before asking about the epidemic that began in China in 2002 and ultimately killed nearly 800 people. “Is SARS coming again?”

In the middle of the night, officials from the health authority in the central city of Wuhan summoned Li, demanding to know why he had shared the information. Three days later, police compelled him to sign a statement that his warning constituted “illegal behaviour.”

The illness was not SARS, but something similar: a coronavirus that is now on a relentless march outward from Wuhan, throughout the country and across the globe, killing at least 290 people in China and infecting more than 11,700.

The government’s initial handling of the epidemic allowed the virus to gain a tenacious hold. At critical moments, officials chose to put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the growing crisis to avoid public alarm and political embarrassment.

A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.

In those weeks, authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but told the public it was for renovations.

Their reluctance to go public, in part, played to political motivations as local officials prepared for their annual congresses in January. Even as cases climbed, officials declared repeatedly that there had likely been no more infections.

By not moving aggressively to warn the public and medical professionals, public health experts say, the Chinese government lost one of its best chances to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

“This was an issue of inaction,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies China. “There was no action in Wuhan from the local health department to alert people to the threat.”

The first case, the details of which are limited and the specific date unknown, was in early December. By the time authorities galvanised into action on January 20, the disease had grown into a formidable threat.

It is now a global health emergency. It has triggered travel restrictions around the world, shaken financial markets and created perhaps the greatest challenge yet for China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The crisis could upend Xi’s agenda for months or longer, even undermining his vision of a political system that offers security and growth in return for submission to iron-fisted authoritarianism.

On the last day of 2019, after Li’s message was shared outside the group, authorities focused on controlling the narrative. Police announced that they were investigating eight people for spreading rumours about the outbreak.

That same day, Wuhan’s health commission, its hand forced by those “rumours,” announced that 27 people were suffering from pneumonia of an unknown cause. Its statement said there was no need to be alarmed.

“The disease is preventable and controllable,” the statement said.

Li, an ophthalmologist, went back to work after being reprimanded. On January 10, he treated a woman for glaucoma. He did not know she had already been infected with the coronavirus, probably by her daughter. They both became sick. So would he.

Hazmat Suits and Disinfectants

Hu Xiaohu, who sold processed pork in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, sensed by late December that something was amiss. Workers were coming down with nagging fevers. No one knew why but, Hu said, several were in hospital quarantine.

The market occupies much of a block in a newer part of the city, sitting incongruously near apartment buildings and shops catering to the growing middle class. It is a warren of stalls selling meats, poultry and fish, as well as more exotic fare, including live reptiles and wild game that some in China prize as delicacies. According to a report by the city’s centre for disease control, sanitation was dismal, with poor ventilation and garbage piled on wet floors.

In hospitals, doctors and nurses were puzzled to see a cluster of patients with symptoms of a viral pneumonia that did not respond to the usual treatments. They soon noticed that many patients had one thing in common: They worked in Huanan market.

On January 1, police officers showed up at the market, along with public health officials, and shut it down. Xinhua News Agency reported that the market was undergoing renovation, but that morning, workers in hazmat suits moved in, washing out stalls and spraying disinfectants.

It was, for the public, the first visible government response to contain the disease. The day before, on December 31, national authorities had alerted the World Health Organization’s office in Beijing of an outbreak.

City officials struck optimistic notes in their announcements. They suggested they had stopped the virus at its source. The cluster of illnesses was limited. There was no evidence the virus spread between humans.

“Projecting optimism and confidence, if you don’t have the data, is a very dangerous strategy,” said Alexandra Phelan, a faculty research instructor in the department of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University.

“It undermines the legitimacy of the government in messaging,” she added. “And public health is dependent on public trust.”

Nine days after the market closed, a man who shopped there regularly became the first fatality of the disease, according to a report by the Wuhan Health Commission, the agency that oversees public health and sanitation. The 61-year-old, identified by his last name, Zeng, already had chronic liver disease and a tumour in his abdomen, and had checked into Wuhan Puren Hospital with a raging fever and difficulty breathing.

Authorities disclosed the man’s death two days after it happened. They did not mention a crucial detail in understanding the course of the epidemic. Zeng’s wife had developed symptoms five days after he did.

She had never visited the market.

The Race to Identify a Killer

About 30 kilometres from the market, scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were studying samples from the patients checking into the city’s hospitals. One of the scientists, Zheng-Li Shi, was part of the team that tracked down the origins of the SARS virus, which emerged in the southern province of Guangdong in 2002.

As the public remained largely in the dark about the virus, she and her colleagues quickly pieced together that the new outbreak was related to SARS. The genetic composition suggested a common initial host: bats. The SARS epidemic began when a coronavirus jumped from bats to Asian palm civets, a catlike creature that is legally raised and consumed. It was likely that this new coronavirus had followed a similar path — possibly somewhere in or on the way to the Huanan market or another market like it.

Around the same time, Li and other medical professionals in Wuhan started trying to provide warnings to colleagues and others when the government did not. Lu Xiaohong, the head of gastroenterology at City Hospital No. 5, told China Youth Daily that she had heard by December 25 that the disease was spreading among medical workers — a full three weeks before authorities would acknowledge the fact. She did not go public with her concerns, but privately warned a school near another market.

By the first week of January, the emergency ward in Hospital No. 5 was filling; the cases included members of the same family, making it clear that the disease was spreading through human contact, which the government had said was not likely.

No one realised, the doctor said, that it was as serious as it would become until it was too late to stop it.

“I realised that we had underestimated the enemy,” she said.

At the Institute of Virology, Shi and her colleagues isolated the genetic sequence and the viral strain during the first week of January. They used samples from seven of the first patients, six of them vendors at the market.

On January 7, the institute’s scientists gave the new coronavirus its identity and began referring to it by the technical shorthand nCoV-2019. Four days later, the team posted the genetic sequence of the new virus on a database of sequences of nucleotides, the molecules that are basic units of DNA.

That allowed scientists around the world to study the virus and swiftly share their findings. As the scientific community moved quickly to devise a test for exposure, political leaders remained reluctant to act.

‘Politics is Always No. 1’

As the virus spread in early January, the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang, was touting futuristic health care plans for the city.

It was China’s political season, when officials gather for annual meetings of People’s Congresses — the Communist Party-run legislatures that discuss and praise policies. It is not a time for bad news.

When Zhou delivered his annual report to the city’s People’s Congress on January 7 against a backdrop of bright red national flags, he promised the city top-class medical schools, a World Health Expo, and a futuristic industry park for medical companies. Not once did he or any other city or provincial leader publicly mention the viral outbreak.

“Stressing politics is always No. 1,” the governor of Hubei, Wang Xiaodong, told officials on January 17, citing Xi’s precepts of top-down obedience. “Political issues are at any time the most fundamental major issues.”

Shortly after, Wuhan went ahead with a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, which critics later cited as evidence that local leaders took the virus far too lightly.

As the congress was taking place, the health commission’s daily updates on the outbreak said again and again that there were no new cases of infection, no firm evidence of human transmission and no infection of medical workers.

“We knew this was not the case!” said a complaint later filed with the National Health Commission on a government website. The anonymous author said he was a doctor in Wuhan and described a surge in unusual chest illnesses beginning January 12.

Officials told doctors at a top city hospital “don’t use the words viral pneumonia on the image reports,” according to the complaint, which has since been removed. People were complacent, “thinking that if the official reports had nothing, then we were exaggerating,” the doctor explained.

Even those stricken felt lulled into complacency.

When Dong Guanghe developed a fever on January 8 in Wuhan, his family was not alarmed, his daughter said. He was treated in the hospital and sent home. Then, 10 days later, Dong’s wife fell ill with similar symptoms.

“The news said nothing about the severity of the epidemic,” said the daughter, Dong Mingjing. “I thought that my dad had a common cold.”

The government’s efforts to minimise public disclosure persuaded more than just untrained citizens.

“If there are no new cases in the next few days, the outbreak is over,” Guan Yi, a respected professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, said on January 15.

The World Health Organization’s statements during this period echoed the reassuring words of Chinese officials.

It had spread. Thailand reported the first confirmed case outside China on January 13.

A City Besieged

The first deaths and the spread of the disease abroad appeared to grab the attention of the top authorities in Beijing. The national government dispatched Zhong Nanshan, a renowned and now-semiretired epidemiologist who was instrumental in the fight against SARS, to Wuhan to assess the situation.

He arrived on January 18, just as the tone of local officials was shifting markedly. A health conference in Hubei province that day called on medical workers to make the disease a priority. An internal document from Wuhan Union Hospital warned its employees that the coronavirus could be spread through saliva.

On January 20, more than a month after the first symptoms spread, the current of anxiety that had been steadily gaining strength exploded into public. Zhong announced in an interview on state television that there was no doubt that the coronavirus spread with human contact. Worse, one patient had infected at least 14 medical personnel.

Xi, fresh from a state visit to Myanmar, made his first public statement about the outbreak, issuing a brief set of instructions.

It was only with the order from Xi that the bureaucracy leapt into action. At that point the death toll was three; in the next 11 days, it would rise above 200.

In Wuhan, the city banned tour groups from visiting. Residents began pulling on masks.

Guan Yi, the Hong Kong expert who had earlier voiced optimism that the outbreak could level off, was now alarmed. He dropped by one of the city’s other food markets and was shocked by the complacency, he said. He told city officials that the epidemic was “already beyond control” and would leave. “I hurriedly booked a departure,” Guan told Caixin, a Chinese news organisation.

Two days later, the city announced that it was shutting itself down, a move that could only have been approved by Beijing.

In Wuhan, many residents said they did not grasp the gravity of the epidemic until the lockdown. The mass alarm that officials feared at the start became a reality, heightened by the previous paucity of information.

Crowds of people crushed the airport and train stations to get out before the deadline fell on the morning of January 23. Hospitals were packed with people desperate to know if they, too, were infected.

“We didn’t wear masks at work. That would have frightened off customers,” Yu Haiyan, a waitress from rural Hubei, said of the days before the shutdown. “When they closed off Wuhan, only then did I think, ‘Oh, this is really serious, this is not some average virus.’”

Wuhan’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, later took responsibility for the delay in reporting the scale of the epidemic, but said he was hampered by the national law on infectious diseases. That law allows provincial governments to declare an epidemic only after receiving central government approval. “After I receive information, I can only release it when I’m authorised,” he said.

The official reflex for suppressing discomforting information now appears to be cracking, as officials at various levels seek to shift blame for the government’s response.

With the crisis worsening, Li’s efforts are no longer viewed as reckless. A commentary on the social media account of the Supreme People’s Court criticised police for investigating people for circulating rumours.

“It might have been a better way to prevent and control the new coronavirus today if the public had believed the ‘rumor’ then and started to wear masks and carry out sanitary measures and avoid the wild animal market,” the commentary said.

Li is 34 and has a child. He and his wife are expecting a second in the summer. He is now recovering from the virus in the hospital where he worked. In an interview via text messages, he said he felt aggrieved by the police actions.

“If the officials had disclosed information about the epidemic earlier,” he said, “I think it would have been a lot better. There should be more openness and transparency.”

The New York Times

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/beijing-kept-the-world-in-the-dark-as-coronavirus-spread-20200202-p53wyb.html

Witty Rejoinder said:

CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
How Beijing kept the world in the dark as coronavirus spread
By Chris Buckley and Steven Lee Myers

FEBRUARY 2, 2020

Wuhan: A mysterious illness had stricken seven patients at a hospital, and a doctor tried to warn his medical school classmates. “Quarantined in the emergency department,” the doctor, Li Wenliang, wrote in an online chat group on December 30, referring to patients.

“So frightening,” one recipient replied, before asking about the epidemic that began in China in 2002 and ultimately killed nearly 800 people. “Is SARS coming again?”

In the middle of the night, officials from the health authority in the central city of Wuhan summoned Li, demanding to know why he had shared the information. Three days later, police compelled him to sign a statement that his warning constituted “illegal behaviour.”

The illness was not SARS, but something similar: a coronavirus that is now on a relentless march outward from Wuhan, throughout the country and across the globe, killing at least 290 people in China and infecting more than 11,700.

The government’s initial handling of the epidemic allowed the virus to gain a tenacious hold. At critical moments, officials chose to put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the growing crisis to avoid public alarm and political embarrassment.

A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.

In those weeks, authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but told the public it was for renovations.

Their reluctance to go public, in part, played to political motivations as local officials prepared for their annual congresses in January. Even as cases climbed, officials declared repeatedly that there had likely been no more infections.

By not moving aggressively to warn the public and medical professionals, public health experts say, the Chinese government lost one of its best chances to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

“This was an issue of inaction,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies China. “There was no action in Wuhan from the local health department to alert people to the threat.”

The first case, the details of which are limited and the specific date unknown, was in early December. By the time authorities galvanised into action on January 20, the disease had grown into a formidable threat.

It is now a global health emergency. It has triggered travel restrictions around the world, shaken financial markets and created perhaps the greatest challenge yet for China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The crisis could upend Xi’s agenda for months or longer, even undermining his vision of a political system that offers security and growth in return for submission to iron-fisted authoritarianism.

On the last day of 2019, after Li’s message was shared outside the group, authorities focused on controlling the narrative. Police announced that they were investigating eight people for spreading rumours about the outbreak.

That same day, Wuhan’s health commission, its hand forced by those “rumours,” announced that 27 people were suffering from pneumonia of an unknown cause. Its statement said there was no need to be alarmed.

“The disease is preventable and controllable,” the statement said.

Li, an ophthalmologist, went back to work after being reprimanded. On January 10, he treated a woman for glaucoma. He did not know she had already been infected with the coronavirus, probably by her daughter. They both became sick. So would he.

Hazmat Suits and Disinfectants

Hu Xiaohu, who sold processed pork in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, sensed by late December that something was amiss. Workers were coming down with nagging fevers. No one knew why but, Hu said, several were in hospital quarantine.

The market occupies much of a block in a newer part of the city, sitting incongruously near apartment buildings and shops catering to the growing middle class. It is a warren of stalls selling meats, poultry and fish, as well as more exotic fare, including live reptiles and wild game that some in China prize as delicacies. According to a report by the city’s centre for disease control, sanitation was dismal, with poor ventilation and garbage piled on wet floors.

In hospitals, doctors and nurses were puzzled to see a cluster of patients with symptoms of a viral pneumonia that did not respond to the usual treatments. They soon noticed that many patients had one thing in common: They worked in Huanan market.

On January 1, police officers showed up at the market, along with public health officials, and shut it down. Xinhua News Agency reported that the market was undergoing renovation, but that morning, workers in hazmat suits moved in, washing out stalls and spraying disinfectants.

It was, for the public, the first visible government response to contain the disease. The day before, on December 31, national authorities had alerted the World Health Organization’s office in Beijing of an outbreak.

City officials struck optimistic notes in their announcements. They suggested they had stopped the virus at its source. The cluster of illnesses was limited. There was no evidence the virus spread between humans.

“Projecting optimism and confidence, if you don’t have the data, is a very dangerous strategy,” said Alexandra Phelan, a faculty research instructor in the department of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University.

“It undermines the legitimacy of the government in messaging,” she added. “And public health is dependent on public trust.”

Nine days after the market closed, a man who shopped there regularly became the first fatality of the disease, according to a report by the Wuhan Health Commission, the agency that oversees public health and sanitation. The 61-year-old, identified by his last name, Zeng, already had chronic liver disease and a tumour in his abdomen, and had checked into Wuhan Puren Hospital with a raging fever and difficulty breathing.

Authorities disclosed the man’s death two days after it happened. They did not mention a crucial detail in understanding the course of the epidemic. Zeng’s wife had developed symptoms five days after he did.

She had never visited the market.

The Race to Identify a Killer

About 30 kilometres from the market, scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were studying samples from the patients checking into the city’s hospitals. One of the scientists, Zheng-Li Shi, was part of the team that tracked down the origins of the SARS virus, which emerged in the southern province of Guangdong in 2002.

As the public remained largely in the dark about the virus, she and her colleagues quickly pieced together that the new outbreak was related to SARS. The genetic composition suggested a common initial host: bats. The SARS epidemic began when a coronavirus jumped from bats to Asian palm civets, a catlike creature that is legally raised and consumed. It was likely that this new coronavirus had followed a similar path — possibly somewhere in or on the way to the Huanan market or another market like it.

Around the same time, Li and other medical professionals in Wuhan started trying to provide warnings to colleagues and others when the government did not. Lu Xiaohong, the head of gastroenterology at City Hospital No. 5, told China Youth Daily that she had heard by December 25 that the disease was spreading among medical workers — a full three weeks before authorities would acknowledge the fact. She did not go public with her concerns, but privately warned a school near another market.

By the first week of January, the emergency ward in Hospital No. 5 was filling; the cases included members of the same family, making it clear that the disease was spreading through human contact, which the government had said was not likely.

No one realised, the doctor said, that it was as serious as it would become until it was too late to stop it.

“I realised that we had underestimated the enemy,” she said.

At the Institute of Virology, Shi and her colleagues isolated the genetic sequence and the viral strain during the first week of January. They used samples from seven of the first patients, six of them vendors at the market.

On January 7, the institute’s scientists gave the new coronavirus its identity and began referring to it by the technical shorthand nCoV-2019. Four days later, the team posted the genetic sequence of the new virus on a database of sequences of nucleotides, the molecules that are basic units of DNA.

That allowed scientists around the world to study the virus and swiftly share their findings. As the scientific community moved quickly to devise a test for exposure, political leaders remained reluctant to act.

‘Politics is Always No. 1’

As the virus spread in early January, the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang, was touting futuristic health care plans for the city.

It was China’s political season, when officials gather for annual meetings of People’s Congresses — the Communist Party-run legislatures that discuss and praise policies. It is not a time for bad news.

When Zhou delivered his annual report to the city’s People’s Congress on January 7 against a backdrop of bright red national flags, he promised the city top-class medical schools, a World Health Expo, and a futuristic industry park for medical companies. Not once did he or any other city or provincial leader publicly mention the viral outbreak.

“Stressing politics is always No. 1,” the governor of Hubei, Wang Xiaodong, told officials on January 17, citing Xi’s precepts of top-down obedience. “Political issues are at any time the most fundamental major issues.”

Shortly after, Wuhan went ahead with a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, which critics later cited as evidence that local leaders took the virus far too lightly.

As the congress was taking place, the health commission’s daily updates on the outbreak said again and again that there were no new cases of infection, no firm evidence of human transmission and no infection of medical workers.

“We knew this was not the case!” said a complaint later filed with the National Health Commission on a government website. The anonymous author said he was a doctor in Wuhan and described a surge in unusual chest illnesses beginning January 12.

Officials told doctors at a top city hospital “don’t use the words viral pneumonia on the image reports,” according to the complaint, which has since been removed. People were complacent, “thinking that if the official reports had nothing, then we were exaggerating,” the doctor explained.

Even those stricken felt lulled into complacency.

When Dong Guanghe developed a fever on January 8 in Wuhan, his family was not alarmed, his daughter said. He was treated in the hospital and sent home. Then, 10 days later, Dong’s wife fell ill with similar symptoms.

“The news said nothing about the severity of the epidemic,” said the daughter, Dong Mingjing. “I thought that my dad had a common cold.”

The government’s efforts to minimise public disclosure persuaded more than just untrained citizens.

“If there are no new cases in the next few days, the outbreak is over,” Guan Yi, a respected professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, said on January 15.

The World Health Organization’s statements during this period echoed the reassuring words of Chinese officials.

It had spread. Thailand reported the first confirmed case outside China on January 13.

A City Besieged

The first deaths and the spread of the disease abroad appeared to grab the attention of the top authorities in Beijing. The national government dispatched Zhong Nanshan, a renowned and now-semiretired epidemiologist who was instrumental in the fight against SARS, to Wuhan to assess the situation.

He arrived on January 18, just as the tone of local officials was shifting markedly. A health conference in Hubei province that day called on medical workers to make the disease a priority. An internal document from Wuhan Union Hospital warned its employees that the coronavirus could be spread through saliva.

On January 20, more than a month after the first symptoms spread, the current of anxiety that had been steadily gaining strength exploded into public. Zhong announced in an interview on state television that there was no doubt that the coronavirus spread with human contact. Worse, one patient had infected at least 14 medical personnel.

Xi, fresh from a state visit to Myanmar, made his first public statement about the outbreak, issuing a brief set of instructions.

It was only with the order from Xi that the bureaucracy leapt into action. At that point the death toll was three; in the next 11 days, it would rise above 200.

In Wuhan, the city banned tour groups from visiting. Residents began pulling on masks.

Guan Yi, the Hong Kong expert who had earlier voiced optimism that the outbreak could level off, was now alarmed. He dropped by one of the city’s other food markets and was shocked by the complacency, he said. He told city officials that the epidemic was “already beyond control” and would leave. “I hurriedly booked a departure,” Guan told Caixin, a Chinese news organisation.

Two days later, the city announced that it was shutting itself down, a move that could only have been approved by Beijing.

In Wuhan, many residents said they did not grasp the gravity of the epidemic until the lockdown. The mass alarm that officials feared at the start became a reality, heightened by the previous paucity of information.

Crowds of people crushed the airport and train stations to get out before the deadline fell on the morning of January 23. Hospitals were packed with people desperate to know if they, too, were infected.

“We didn’t wear masks at work. That would have frightened off customers,” Yu Haiyan, a waitress from rural Hubei, said of the days before the shutdown. “When they closed off Wuhan, only then did I think, ‘Oh, this is really serious, this is not some average virus.’”

Wuhan’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, later took responsibility for the delay in reporting the scale of the epidemic, but said he was hampered by the national law on infectious diseases. That law allows provincial governments to declare an epidemic only after receiving central government approval. “After I receive information, I can only release it when I’m authorised,” he said.

The official reflex for suppressing discomforting information now appears to be cracking, as officials at various levels seek to shift blame for the government’s response.

With the crisis worsening, Li’s efforts are no longer viewed as reckless. A commentary on the social media account of the Supreme People’s Court criticised police for investigating people for circulating rumours.

“It might have been a better way to prevent and control the new coronavirus today if the public had believed the ‘rumor’ then and started to wear masks and carry out sanitary measures and avoid the wild animal market,” the commentary said.

Li is 34 and has a child. He and his wife are expecting a second in the summer. He is now recovering from the virus in the hospital where he worked. In an interview via text messages, he said he felt aggrieved by the police actions.

“If the officials had disclosed information about the epidemic earlier,” he said, “I think it would have been a lot better. There should be more openness and transparency.”

The New York Times

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/beijing-kept-the-world-in-the-dark-as-coronavirus-spread-20200202-p53wyb.html

fair point, most governments probably do engage in cover up

SCIENCE said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
How Beijing kept the world in the dark as coronavirus spread
By Chris Buckley and Steven Lee Myers

FEBRUARY 2, 2020

Wuhan: A mysterious illness had stricken seven patients at a hospital, and a doctor tried to warn his medical school classmates. “Quarantined in the emergency department,” the doctor, Li Wenliang, wrote in an online chat group on December 30, referring to patients.

“So frightening,” one recipient replied, before asking about the epidemic that began in China in 2002 and ultimately killed nearly 800 people. “Is SARS coming again?”

In the middle of the night, officials from the health authority in the central city of Wuhan summoned Li, demanding to know why he had shared the information. Three days later, police compelled him to sign a statement that his warning constituted “illegal behaviour.”

The illness was not SARS, but something similar: a coronavirus that is now on a relentless march outward from Wuhan, throughout the country and across the globe, killing at least 290 people in China and infecting more than 11,700.

The government’s initial handling of the epidemic allowed the virus to gain a tenacious hold. At critical moments, officials chose to put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the growing crisis to avoid public alarm and political embarrassment.

A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.

In those weeks, authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but told the public it was for renovations.

Their reluctance to go public, in part, played to political motivations as local officials prepared for their annual congresses in January. Even as cases climbed, officials declared repeatedly that there had likely been no more infections.

By not moving aggressively to warn the public and medical professionals, public health experts say, the Chinese government lost one of its best chances to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

“This was an issue of inaction,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies China. “There was no action in Wuhan from the local health department to alert people to the threat.”

The first case, the details of which are limited and the specific date unknown, was in early December. By the time authorities galvanised into action on January 20, the disease had grown into a formidable threat.

It is now a global health emergency. It has triggered travel restrictions around the world, shaken financial markets and created perhaps the greatest challenge yet for China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The crisis could upend Xi’s agenda for months or longer, even undermining his vision of a political system that offers security and growth in return for submission to iron-fisted authoritarianism.

On the last day of 2019, after Li’s message was shared outside the group, authorities focused on controlling the narrative. Police announced that they were investigating eight people for spreading rumours about the outbreak.

That same day, Wuhan’s health commission, its hand forced by those “rumours,” announced that 27 people were suffering from pneumonia of an unknown cause. Its statement said there was no need to be alarmed.

“The disease is preventable and controllable,” the statement said.

Li, an ophthalmologist, went back to work after being reprimanded. On January 10, he treated a woman for glaucoma. He did not know she had already been infected with the coronavirus, probably by her daughter. They both became sick. So would he.

Hazmat Suits and Disinfectants

Hu Xiaohu, who sold processed pork in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, sensed by late December that something was amiss. Workers were coming down with nagging fevers. No one knew why but, Hu said, several were in hospital quarantine.

The market occupies much of a block in a newer part of the city, sitting incongruously near apartment buildings and shops catering to the growing middle class. It is a warren of stalls selling meats, poultry and fish, as well as more exotic fare, including live reptiles and wild game that some in China prize as delicacies. According to a report by the city’s centre for disease control, sanitation was dismal, with poor ventilation and garbage piled on wet floors.

In hospitals, doctors and nurses were puzzled to see a cluster of patients with symptoms of a viral pneumonia that did not respond to the usual treatments. They soon noticed that many patients had one thing in common: They worked in Huanan market.

On January 1, police officers showed up at the market, along with public health officials, and shut it down. Xinhua News Agency reported that the market was undergoing renovation, but that morning, workers in hazmat suits moved in, washing out stalls and spraying disinfectants.

It was, for the public, the first visible government response to contain the disease. The day before, on December 31, national authorities had alerted the World Health Organization’s office in Beijing of an outbreak.

City officials struck optimistic notes in their announcements. They suggested they had stopped the virus at its source. The cluster of illnesses was limited. There was no evidence the virus spread between humans.

“Projecting optimism and confidence, if you don’t have the data, is a very dangerous strategy,” said Alexandra Phelan, a faculty research instructor in the department of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University.

“It undermines the legitimacy of the government in messaging,” she added. “And public health is dependent on public trust.”

Nine days after the market closed, a man who shopped there regularly became the first fatality of the disease, according to a report by the Wuhan Health Commission, the agency that oversees public health and sanitation. The 61-year-old, identified by his last name, Zeng, already had chronic liver disease and a tumour in his abdomen, and had checked into Wuhan Puren Hospital with a raging fever and difficulty breathing.

Authorities disclosed the man’s death two days after it happened. They did not mention a crucial detail in understanding the course of the epidemic. Zeng’s wife had developed symptoms five days after he did.

She had never visited the market.

The Race to Identify a Killer

About 30 kilometres from the market, scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were studying samples from the patients checking into the city’s hospitals. One of the scientists, Zheng-Li Shi, was part of the team that tracked down the origins of the SARS virus, which emerged in the southern province of Guangdong in 2002.

As the public remained largely in the dark about the virus, she and her colleagues quickly pieced together that the new outbreak was related to SARS. The genetic composition suggested a common initial host: bats. The SARS epidemic began when a coronavirus jumped from bats to Asian palm civets, a catlike creature that is legally raised and consumed. It was likely that this new coronavirus had followed a similar path — possibly somewhere in or on the way to the Huanan market or another market like it.

Around the same time, Li and other medical professionals in Wuhan started trying to provide warnings to colleagues and others when the government did not. Lu Xiaohong, the head of gastroenterology at City Hospital No. 5, told China Youth Daily that she had heard by December 25 that the disease was spreading among medical workers — a full three weeks before authorities would acknowledge the fact. She did not go public with her concerns, but privately warned a school near another market.

By the first week of January, the emergency ward in Hospital No. 5 was filling; the cases included members of the same family, making it clear that the disease was spreading through human contact, which the government had said was not likely.

No one realised, the doctor said, that it was as serious as it would become until it was too late to stop it.

“I realised that we had underestimated the enemy,” she said.

At the Institute of Virology, Shi and her colleagues isolated the genetic sequence and the viral strain during the first week of January. They used samples from seven of the first patients, six of them vendors at the market.

On January 7, the institute’s scientists gave the new coronavirus its identity and began referring to it by the technical shorthand nCoV-2019. Four days later, the team posted the genetic sequence of the new virus on a database of sequences of nucleotides, the molecules that are basic units of DNA.

That allowed scientists around the world to study the virus and swiftly share their findings. As the scientific community moved quickly to devise a test for exposure, political leaders remained reluctant to act.

‘Politics is Always No. 1’

As the virus spread in early January, the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang, was touting futuristic health care plans for the city.

It was China’s political season, when officials gather for annual meetings of People’s Congresses — the Communist Party-run legislatures that discuss and praise policies. It is not a time for bad news.

When Zhou delivered his annual report to the city’s People’s Congress on January 7 against a backdrop of bright red national flags, he promised the city top-class medical schools, a World Health Expo, and a futuristic industry park for medical companies. Not once did he or any other city or provincial leader publicly mention the viral outbreak.

“Stressing politics is always No. 1,” the governor of Hubei, Wang Xiaodong, told officials on January 17, citing Xi’s precepts of top-down obedience. “Political issues are at any time the most fundamental major issues.”

Shortly after, Wuhan went ahead with a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, which critics later cited as evidence that local leaders took the virus far too lightly.

As the congress was taking place, the health commission’s daily updates on the outbreak said again and again that there were no new cases of infection, no firm evidence of human transmission and no infection of medical workers.

“We knew this was not the case!” said a complaint later filed with the National Health Commission on a government website. The anonymous author said he was a doctor in Wuhan and described a surge in unusual chest illnesses beginning January 12.

Officials told doctors at a top city hospital “don’t use the words viral pneumonia on the image reports,” according to the complaint, which has since been removed. People were complacent, “thinking that if the official reports had nothing, then we were exaggerating,” the doctor explained.

Even those stricken felt lulled into complacency.

When Dong Guanghe developed a fever on January 8 in Wuhan, his family was not alarmed, his daughter said. He was treated in the hospital and sent home. Then, 10 days later, Dong’s wife fell ill with similar symptoms.

“The news said nothing about the severity of the epidemic,” said the daughter, Dong Mingjing. “I thought that my dad had a common cold.”

The government’s efforts to minimise public disclosure persuaded more than just untrained citizens.

“If there are no new cases in the next few days, the outbreak is over,” Guan Yi, a respected professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, said on January 15.

The World Health Organization’s statements during this period echoed the reassuring words of Chinese officials.

It had spread. Thailand reported the first confirmed case outside China on January 13.

A City Besieged

The first deaths and the spread of the disease abroad appeared to grab the attention of the top authorities in Beijing. The national government dispatched Zhong Nanshan, a renowned and now-semiretired epidemiologist who was instrumental in the fight against SARS, to Wuhan to assess the situation.

He arrived on January 18, just as the tone of local officials was shifting markedly. A health conference in Hubei province that day called on medical workers to make the disease a priority. An internal document from Wuhan Union Hospital warned its employees that the coronavirus could be spread through saliva.

On January 20, more than a month after the first symptoms spread, the current of anxiety that had been steadily gaining strength exploded into public. Zhong announced in an interview on state television that there was no doubt that the coronavirus spread with human contact. Worse, one patient had infected at least 14 medical personnel.

Xi, fresh from a state visit to Myanmar, made his first public statement about the outbreak, issuing a brief set of instructions.

It was only with the order from Xi that the bureaucracy leapt into action. At that point the death toll was three; in the next 11 days, it would rise above 200.

In Wuhan, the city banned tour groups from visiting. Residents began pulling on masks.

Guan Yi, the Hong Kong expert who had earlier voiced optimism that the outbreak could level off, was now alarmed. He dropped by one of the city’s other food markets and was shocked by the complacency, he said. He told city officials that the epidemic was “already beyond control” and would leave. “I hurriedly booked a departure,” Guan told Caixin, a Chinese news organisation.

Two days later, the city announced that it was shutting itself down, a move that could only have been approved by Beijing.

In Wuhan, many residents said they did not grasp the gravity of the epidemic until the lockdown. The mass alarm that officials feared at the start became a reality, heightened by the previous paucity of information.

Crowds of people crushed the airport and train stations to get out before the deadline fell on the morning of January 23. Hospitals were packed with people desperate to know if they, too, were infected.

“We didn’t wear masks at work. That would have frightened off customers,” Yu Haiyan, a waitress from rural Hubei, said of the days before the shutdown. “When they closed off Wuhan, only then did I think, ‘Oh, this is really serious, this is not some average virus.’”

Wuhan’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, later took responsibility for the delay in reporting the scale of the epidemic, but said he was hampered by the national law on infectious diseases. That law allows provincial governments to declare an epidemic only after receiving central government approval. “After I receive information, I can only release it when I’m authorised,” he said.

The official reflex for suppressing discomforting information now appears to be cracking, as officials at various levels seek to shift blame for the government’s response.

With the crisis worsening, Li’s efforts are no longer viewed as reckless. A commentary on the social media account of the Supreme People’s Court criticised police for investigating people for circulating rumours.

“It might have been a better way to prevent and control the new coronavirus today if the public had believed the ‘rumor’ then and started to wear masks and carry out sanitary measures and avoid the wild animal market,” the commentary said.

Li is 34 and has a child. He and his wife are expecting a second in the summer. He is now recovering from the virus in the hospital where he worked. In an interview via text messages, he said he felt aggrieved by the police actions.

“If the officials had disclosed information about the epidemic earlier,” he said, “I think it would have been a lot better. There should be more openness and transparency.”

The New York Times

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/beijing-kept-the-world-in-the-dark-as-coronavirus-spread-20200202-p53wyb.html

fair point, most governments probably do engage in cover up

Or try to.

A good appreciation of the economic costs of disease would teach them otherwise.

mollwollfumble said:

Anybody been tracking the death toll as a function of time?

Very early estimate (from yesterday) 2% death rate.

213 dead on 30 Jan
170 dead on 29 Jan
132 dead on 28 Jan
106 dead on 28 Jan
81 dead on 27 Jan
80 dead on 27 Jan
56 dead on 26 Jan
41 dead on 24 Jan
25 dead on 23 Jan
17 dead on 22 Jan
6 dead on 21 Jan
1 dead on 11 Jan
0 dead on 5 Jan

Is the death toll roughly doubling each day? Let’s see.
Not quite, but the death toll is growing exponentially.

From trendline, 2% of world population, 155,000,000 people, are expected to be dead in 76 days from the start of Jan 2020.
That’s Mon 16 March
Check that your will is up to date by then.

Update. Reminder that 1st death was 11 Jan. Order your face mask now. Update your will this month.

mollwollfumble said:

mollwollfumble said:

Anybody been tracking the death toll as a function of time?

Very early estimate (from yesterday) 2% death rate.

213 dead on 30 Jan
170 dead on 29 Jan
132 dead on 28 Jan
106 dead on 28 Jan
81 dead on 27 Jan
80 dead on 27 Jan
56 dead on 26 Jan
41 dead on 24 Jan
25 dead on 23 Jan
17 dead on 22 Jan
6 dead on 21 Jan
1 dead on 11 Jan
0 dead on 5 Jan

Is the death toll roughly doubling each day? Let’s see.
Not quite, but the death toll is growing exponentially.

From trendline, 2% of world population, 155,000,000 people, are expected to be dead in 76 days from the start of Jan 2020.
That’s Mon 16 March
Check that your will is up to date by then.

Update. Reminder that 1st death was 11 Jan. Order your face mask now. Update your will this month.

So, doubling each 2.4 days, roughly.

those last 5 points look pretty linear to us

SCIENCE said:

those last 5 points look pretty linear to us

And there’s a typo in the title.

SCIENCE said:

those last 5 points look pretty linear to us

Are you the CCP spokesman?

Witty Rejoinder said:

SCIENCE said:

those last 5 points look pretty linear to us

Are you the CCP spokesman?

royal “us”, like monarchy, not commudemocracy

dv said:

So, doubling each 2.4 days, roughly.

Yeah.

dv said:

SCIENCE said:

those last 5 points look pretty linear to us

And there’s a typo in the title.

I’m not 100% sure how to measure “day”. Is that day as in Sydney time, China time, New York time or London time? The rate of increase is so fast that it makes a difference. That quote of both 106 and 132 on 28 Jan may be from two different days, China time. If so then the doubling time is longer.

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

Now let me see…….. Wouldn’t want anybody getting sick and catching any sort of virus in a hurry round these parts, would ya.The local Tweed hospital timeline before they’ve even turned a sod.

Since 2012, a number of clinical services and master planning studies have been undertaken, which have concluded that the existing Tweed Hospital is at capacity and the 4‐hectare (ha) site is insufficient to support the long‐term healthcare needs of the Tweed‐Byron community.

Accordingly, on 13 June 2017, the NSW Government announced $534 million for a new state‐of‐the‐art hospital on a greenfield site,……………………….

More than 50 sites have been assessed in total, including those considered through a publicly advertised expression of interest (EOI) process……………………..

Phase 1 (August 2017 to March 2018) :
35 sites were considered, including around 20 submitted by landowners through the EOI process. Due diligence investigations were undertaken by independent experts (Advisors) and cross‐government consultation…………………………………..

Phase 2 (April 2018 to June 2018):
Following the announcement of the Proposed Site, in recognition of concerns raised by the local community, the NSW Government directed NSW Health Infrastructure (HI) to undertake a focused six week community consultation process………………………

Both phases of the site selection process have been overseen by an independent Probity Advisor who has stated that the process has been conducted in a fair and equitable manner with due regard to probity.

The NSW Government approved the Stage 1 State Significant Development (SSD) application for the new Tweed Valley Hospital on 11 June 2019, following extensive community and government agency consultation……………………………….

The Stage 2 State Significant Development application was lodged with the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment on 27 September 2019 and the following public exhibition period closed on 8 November 2019

Main works will commence on the site once planning approvals are in place and consent conditions satisfied, with the new hospital due to be completed before the end of 2022 and open to patients in 2023.

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

C’mon. We’re talking China, and an epidemic emergency.

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

Now let me see…….. Wouldn’t want anybody getting sick and catching any sort of virus in a hurry round these parts, would ya.The local Tweed hospital timeline before they’ve even turned a sod.

Since 2012, a number of clinical services and master planning studies have been undertaken, which have concluded that the existing Tweed Hospital is at capacity and the 4‐hectare (ha) site is insufficient to support the long‐term healthcare needs of the Tweed‐Byron community.

Accordingly, on 13 June 2017, the NSW Government announced $534 million for a new state‐of‐the‐art hospital on a greenfield site,……………………….

More than 50 sites have been assessed in total, including those considered through a publicly advertised expression of interest (EOI) process……………………..

Phase 1 (August 2017 to March 2018) :
35 sites were considered, including around 20 submitted by landowners through the EOI process. Due diligence investigations were undertaken by independent experts (Advisors) and cross‐government consultation…………………………………..

Phase 2 (April 2018 to June 2018):
Following the announcement of the Proposed Site, in recognition of concerns raised by the local community, the NSW Government directed NSW Health Infrastructure (HI) to undertake a focused six week community consultation process………………………

Both phases of the site selection process have been overseen by an independent Probity Advisor who has stated that the process has been conducted in a fair and equitable manner with due regard to probity.

The NSW Government approved the Stage 1 State Significant Development (SSD) application for the new Tweed Valley Hospital on 11 June 2019, following extensive community and government agency consultation……………………………….

The Stage 2 State Significant Development application was lodged with the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment on 27 September 2019 and the following public exhibition period closed on 8 November 2019

Main works will commence on the site once planning approvals are in place and consent conditions satisfied, with the new hospital due to be completed before the end of 2022 and open to patients in 2023.

Yeah.

China has a somewhat different system, doesn’t it…

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

Not difficult to think they were ants.

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

C’mon. We’re talking China, and an epidemic emergency.

Probably rooms where they may or may not knock them out and then harvest organs

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

Now let me see…….. Wouldn’t want anybody getting sick and catching any sort of virus in a hurry round these parts, would ya.The local Tweed hospital timeline before they’ve even turned a sod.

Since 2012, a number of clinical services and master planning studies have been undertaken, which have concluded that the existing Tweed Hospital is at capacity and the 4‐hectare (ha) site is insufficient to support the long‐term healthcare needs of the Tweed‐Byron community.

Accordingly, on 13 June 2017, the NSW Government announced $534 million for a new state‐of‐the‐art hospital on a greenfield site,……………………….

More than 50 sites have been assessed in total, including those considered through a publicly advertised expression of interest (EOI) process……………………..

Phase 1 (August 2017 to March 2018) :
35 sites were considered, including around 20 submitted by landowners through the EOI process. Due diligence investigations were undertaken by independent experts (Advisors) and cross‐government consultation…………………………………..

Phase 2 (April 2018 to June 2018):
Following the announcement of the Proposed Site, in recognition of concerns raised by the local community, the NSW Government directed NSW Health Infrastructure (HI) to undertake a focused six week community consultation process………………………

Both phases of the site selection process have been overseen by an independent Probity Advisor who has stated that the process has been conducted in a fair and equitable manner with due regard to probity.

The NSW Government approved the Stage 1 State Significant Development (SSD) application for the new Tweed Valley Hospital on 11 June 2019, following extensive community and government agency consultation……………………………….

The Stage 2 State Significant Development application was lodged with the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment on 27 September 2019 and the following public exhibition period closed on 8 November 2019

Main works will commence on the site once planning approvals are in place and consent conditions satisfied, with the new hospital due to be completed before the end of 2022 and open to patients in 2023.

Yeah.

China has a somewhat different system, doesn’t it…

Sure does: Melbourne 9 kms of track in 10 years, Beijing 342km of track in 5 years.

In February 2015, the State government established the Melbourne Metro Rail Authority, …………………. enabling works commenced in late 2016 …… construction of twin 9-kilometre rail tunnels between South Kensington station (north west of the Melbourne City Centre) and South Yarra (in the south east) with five new underground stations ………………… .the project was originally expected to be completed in 2026, but has now been revised to late 2025.

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Stun worthy for sure.

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Now let me see…….. Wouldn’t want anybody getting sick and catching any sort of virus in a hurry round these parts, would ya.The local Tweed hospital timeline before they’ve even turned a sod.

Since 2012, a number of clinical services and master planning studies have been undertaken, which have concluded that the existing Tweed Hospital is at capacity and the 4‐hectare (ha) site is insufficient to support the long‐term healthcare needs of the Tweed‐Byron community.

Accordingly, on 13 June 2017, the NSW Government announced $534 million for a new state‐of‐the‐art hospital on a greenfield site,……………………….

More than 50 sites have been assessed in total, including those considered through a publicly advertised expression of interest (EOI) process……………………..

Phase 1 (August 2017 to March 2018) :
35 sites were considered, including around 20 submitted by landowners through the EOI process. Due diligence investigations were undertaken by independent experts (Advisors) and cross‐government consultation…………………………………..

Phase 2 (April 2018 to June 2018):
Following the announcement of the Proposed Site, in recognition of concerns raised by the local community, the NSW Government directed NSW Health Infrastructure (HI) to undertake a focused six week community consultation process………………………

Both phases of the site selection process have been overseen by an independent Probity Advisor who has stated that the process has been conducted in a fair and equitable manner with due regard to probity.

The NSW Government approved the Stage 1 State Significant Development (SSD) application for the new Tweed Valley Hospital on 11 June 2019, following extensive community and government agency consultation……………………………….

The Stage 2 State Significant Development application was lodged with the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment on 27 September 2019 and the following public exhibition period closed on 8 November 2019

Main works will commence on the site once planning approvals are in place and consent conditions satisfied, with the new hospital due to be completed before the end of 2022 and open to patients in 2023.

Yeah.

China has a somewhat different system, doesn’t it…

Sure does: Melbourne 9 kms of track in 10 years, Beijing 342km of track in 5 years.

In February 2015, the State government established the Melbourne Metro Rail Authority, …………………. enabling works commenced in late 2016 …… construction of twin 9-kilometre rail tunnels between South Kensington station (north west of the Melbourne City Centre) and South Yarra (in the south east) with five new underground stations ………………… .the project was originally expected to be completed in 2026, but has now been revised to late 2025.

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

Incredible, really. But plenty of people to work on it at all stages.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Beijing has a population of about 20 million, so about 1 km of track per 20,000 people.

Melbourne has a population of about 5 million and about 250 km of tram line, so about 1 km of track per 20,000 people.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

Woodie said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

I remember them discussing Badgery’s Creek as a potential airport site in the mid 1960s.

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Beijing has a population of about 20 million, so about 1 km of track per 20,000 people.

Melbourne has a population of about 5 million and about 250 km of tram line, so about 1 km of track per 20,000 people.

Their first high seed (250 km/h+) passenger rail line opened in 2008. By 2019 they had over 30,000 km of lines built, linking nearly 200 cities. It now accounts for about 2/3 of all worldwide high speed rail journeys, twice as large as all the rest (Japan’s Shinkansen, France’s TGV, Germany’s ICE etc) combined. In just over a decade.

I know we have nothing like the population density of China. But you have to admit it is an impressive feat of engineering and human organisation.

Woodie said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Beijing Subway is planning to have 19 lines totalling 708km (440mi) of track in operation by 2015, and 1,050 km (650mi) of track by 2020, with an expected nine million passenger journeys a day.

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

Oh, 2026?

Every now and again I look at Buggery’s Crack on Google Earth just to check the progress of construction to see if the photo has upgraded. Nothing so far. I was expecting construction to begin last year.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

party_pants said:

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

Oh, 2026?

Every now and again I look at Buggery’s Crack on Google Earth just to check the progress of construction to see if the photo has upgraded. Nothing so far. I was expecting construction to begin last year.

You know Google Earth is updated every 50 years or so?

I don’t know what is happening at the airport, but there are about a brazillion new large scale warehouse development projects going on at the moment.

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

Oh, 2026?

Every now and again I look at Buggery’s Crack on Google Earth just to check the progress of construction to see if the photo has upgraded. Nothing so far. I was expecting construction to begin last year.

You know Google Earth is updated every 50 years or so?

I don’t know what is happening at the airport, but there are about a brazillion new large scale warehouse development projects going on at the moment.

Where my house is, in a new estate, it updates about twice a year. I check it every now and again.

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

party_pants said:

The construction of their bullet train network linking the major cities has been equally astunishing.

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

The site at Badgerys Creek was chosen because it was considered the preferred site by successive studies including an environmental impact statement that was completed in 1999 ……………………… Construction of Stage 1 of the Airport began on 24 September 2018 and is expected to be complete and open by December 2026.

Beijing Daxing International Airport : 8 years from go to woe.

Early media reports during September 2011 suggested that there could be up to 9 runways …………………..The terminal building is the largest single-structure airport terminal in the world, with an area of more than 1,000,000 m2 (11,000,000 sq ft).It was completed on June 30, 2019

I remember them discussing Badgery’s Creek as a potential airport site in the mid 1960s.

yep.

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Interesting story and time-lapse of the 10-day, 1000-bed, 1400-staff new infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/china-completes-wuhan-makeshift-hospital-to-treat-coronavirus/11923000

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

C’mon. We’re talking China, and an epidemic emergency.

imagine if we could do this kind of thing with climate remediation, oh wait, there’s no fucking political will to do any of that now is there

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

C’mon. We’re talking China, and an epidemic emergency.

imagine if we could do this kind of thing with climate remediation, oh wait, there’s no fucking political will to do any of that now is there

It is only aniimals that are dying. The pollies would deny being animals themselves.

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

So when was the EIS done? Were there any endangered green throated frog warblers there?

C’mon. We’re talking China, and an epidemic emergency.

imagine if we could do this kind of thing with climate remediation, oh wait, there’s no fucking political will to do any of that now is there

Yeah. That’d be a Very Good Thing.

Woodie said:

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

Wellcamp Airport (YBBW) took about 18 months to build from scratch.

Single runway, but 747 capable.

captain_spalding said:

Woodie said:

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

Wellcamp Airport (YBBW) took about 18 months to build from scratch.

Single runway, but 747 capable.

Yep, that was the key, big plane capable.
And I think it’s investors are doing alright.

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Woodie said:

Let’s build an airport. 27 years to build a single runway airport. China, 215 airports in 15 years by 2035.

Wellcamp Airport (YBBW) took about 18 months to build from scratch.

Single runway, but 747 capable.

Yep, that was the key, big plane capable.
And I think it’s investors are doing alright.

Some people cal it ‘Brisbane West Airport’.

We think of the airport at Eagle Farm as ‘Toowoomba East’.

Bump

This is the fred.

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Coronavirus has already killed more people in China than SARS did in its whole run.

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Coronavirus has already killed more people in China than SARS did in its whole run.

Yet SARS was outstripped by coronavirus in numbers infected?

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Flu mortality rates are around 0.5%, coronavirus mortality seems to be about 2%. SARS mortality rate was ~9.6%

poikilotherm said:

Ta.

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

No.
The kill rate of the virus is 2% and the kill rate of the common flu is .6% or threabouts.

Jeez bird flue had a kick in it.

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

I think it misses the point that there’s no vaccine, and thst cv has spread faster than a normal flu, so the potential is considered worse than a normal flu.

poikilotherm said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Flu mortality rates are around 0.5%, coronavirus mortality seems to be about 2%. SARS mortality rate was ~9.6%

Beaten by the man who knows.

roughbarked said:

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Coronavirus has already killed more people in China than SARS did in its whole run.

Yet SARS was outstripped by coronavirus in numbers infected?

No. Overall there are many more people infected with nCOV-2019 than SARS. Most are in China.

SARS stats:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Statistics

Current nCOV-2019 stats:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Michael V said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Coronavirus has already killed more people in China than SARS did in its whole run.

Yet SARS was outstripped by coronavirus in numbers infected?

No. Overall there are many more people infected with nCOV-2019 than SARS. Most are in China.

SARS stats:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Statistics

Current nCOV-2019 stats:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That is why I put the question mark there. it was a 50/50 one way or the other.

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Yes.

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Taking into account that ~10% of their population has little or no access to medical treatment, they should be absolutely bricking it, IMO. Once a pandemic gets loose, it doesn’t take long before the wheels start falling off some pretty important stuff.

FWIW, this is a brief run-down of the Australian health management plan for an Influenza-like pandemic, and a full copy of the Victorian plan is downloadable here (1MB PDF).

poikilotherm said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Flu mortality rates are around 0.5%, coronavirus mortality seems to be about 2%. SARS mortality rate was ~9.6%

It’s not just deaths – Having a large number of people sick or confined causes enormous flow-on problems.

Rule 303 said:

poikilotherm said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

Flu mortality rates are around 0.5%, coronavirus mortality seems to be about 2%. SARS mortality rate was ~9.6%

It’s not just deaths – Having a large number of people sick or confined causes enormous flow-on problems.

no shit (where’s curve when you need him)…see next graph i posted.

poikilotherm said:

Rule 303 said:

poikilotherm said:

Flu mortality rates are around 0.5%, coronavirus mortality seems to be about 2%. SARS mortality rate was ~9.6%

It’s not just deaths – Having a large number of people sick or confined causes enormous flow-on problems.

no shit (where’s curve when you need him)…see next graph i posted.

Totes amazeballs.

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

you’ve compared, and asked what’s the difference, sort of flu(f) minus corona© equals zero (no change)

written in math symbols that’s f – c = 0

try f + c

transition said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Heard some dude on the wireless last night, I think it was on NPR.
He was saying the US’s approach to the virus was way over the top and could lead to panic etc.
He said thousands die every year in the US during the flu season from the flu and the coronavirus was nothing special.
Does he have a point?

you’ve compared, and asked what’s the difference, sort of flu(f) minus corona© equals zero (no change)

written in math symbols that’s f – c = 0

try f + c

don’t know why it did a copyright sign there, brackets I guess, you get the gist anyway

“Two Chinese officials have been removed from office following the death of a 16-year-old boy with a disability whose father — the boy’s carer — was quarantined with suspected coronavirus.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/coronavirus-disabled-boy-dies-in-china-after-father-quarantined/11927180

Michael V said:

“Two Chinese officials have been removed from office following the death of a 16-year-old boy with a disability whose father — the boy’s carer — was quarantined with suspected coronavirus.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/coronavirus-disabled-boy-dies-in-china-after-father-quarantined/11927180

That’s just terrible

dv said:

Michael V said:

“Two Chinese officials have been removed from office following the death of a 16-year-old boy with a disability whose father — the boy’s carer — was quarantined with suspected coronavirus.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/coronavirus-disabled-boy-dies-in-china-after-father-quarantined/11927180

That’s just terrible

It is China. I’ve heard it is a lovely place but…

An aside, I was walking through the park and a Chinese couple, not locals, walking towards me the woman coughing. Involuntarily held my breath before I realised what I was doing.

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Michael V said:

“Two Chinese officials have been removed from office following the death of a 16-year-old boy with a disability whose father — the boy’s carer — was quarantined with suspected coronavirus.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/coronavirus-disabled-boy-dies-in-china-after-father-quarantined/11927180

That’s just terrible

It is China. I’ve heard it is a lovely place but…

An aside, I was walking through the park and a Chinese couple, not locals, walking towards me the woman coughing. Involuntarily held my breath before I realised what I was doing.

did they clear their throats loudly and spit far

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

That’s just terrible

It is China. I’ve heard it is a lovely place but…

An aside, I was walking through the park and a Chinese couple, not locals, walking towards me the woman coughing. Involuntarily held my breath before I realised what I was doing.

did they clear their throats loudly and spit far

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

It is China. I’ve heard it is a lovely place but…

An aside, I was walking through the park and a Chinese couple, not locals, walking towards me the woman coughing. Involuntarily held my breath before I realised what I was doing.

did they clear their throats loudly and spit far

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

did they clear their throats loudly and spit far

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

buffy said:

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

buffy said:

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

There are still many thousands of people still ill; those that have neither recovered nor died yet.

sibeen said:

buffy said:

SCIENCE said:

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

Actually, it has just updated – 20,485.

sibeen said:

buffy said:

SCIENCE said:

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

Michael V said:

buffy said:

SCIENCE said:

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

There are still many thousands of people still ill; those that have neither recovered nor died yet.

There must be a lot who have run the course by now. Such things generally last around 2 weeks in a generally well person.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

buffy said:

sibeen said:

buffy said:

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

Zombies

buffy said:

sibeen said:

buffy said:

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

It takes up to 14 days before symptoms start. After symptoms start I have no idea of the recovery time (even without getting the pneumonia symptoms).

buffy said:

sibeen said:

buffy said:

>>Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688.<<

I don’t understand this sentence. Presumably if you didn’t die from it, you recovered. How many reported cases in China are there now?

20,444.

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

zombies

the apocalypse

it’s coming

Michael V said:

buffy said:

sibeen said:

20,444.

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

It takes up to 14 days before symptoms start. After symptoms start I have no idea of the recovery time (even without getting the pneumonia symptoms).

And I read somewhere that people are not considered recovered until they have undetectable viral load after testing.

Michael V said:

Michael V said:

buffy said:

So if 427 have died and 688 recovered…what has happened to the others?

It takes up to 14 days before symptoms start. After symptoms start I have no idea of the recovery time (even without getting the pneumonia symptoms).

And I read somewhere that people are not considered recovered until they have undetectable viral load after testing.

makes sense

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

did they clear their throats loudly and spit far

427 deaths now. The death toll has changed from climbing exponentially to climbing quadratically. Which is good, sort of, it means you have a lot more time until you need to have your will in order. In 3 years the death toll is only looking like 2.4 million people.

Bad news, the number of people who have recovered from the coronavirus infection is only 688. That gives a preliminary and maximum measure of the death rate as a massive 38%.

More day by day information on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which includes number of cases and proportion of cases in critical condition (14%).

that’s what you’d expect for geographic spread

seriously from the data they give

Feb-03 426 64 18%
Feb-02 362 58 19%
Feb-01 304 45 17%
Jan-31 259 46 22%
Jan-30 213 43 25%
Jan-29 170 38 29%
Jan-28 132 26 25%
Jan-27 106 26 33%
Jan-26 80 24 43%
Jan-25 56 15 37%
Jan-24 41 16 64%
Jan-23 25 8 47%

the behaviour is more like an outbreak that started on Jan-19 with (deaths) = (days)^2.24

Reports that a baby may have been infected in utero.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/mothers-may-pass-coronavirus-to-unborn-children-chinese-doctors/11934452

Michael V said:

Reports that a baby may have been infected in utero.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/mothers-may-pass-coronavirus-to-unborn-children-chinese-doctors/11934452

Whatever happened to good old Ebola, hey?

From here

From 22 to 28 January five new confirmed cases were reported in the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

As of 28 January, a total of 3421 EVD cases were reported, including 3302 confirmed and 119 probable cases, of which 2242 cases died (overall case fatality ratio 66%)

Alerts of Ebola virus disease reported, investigated, and validated daily from outbreak affected areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as of 28 January 2020

One Aussie and 9 others infected on cruise ship off Japan.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/ten-cases-of-coronavirus-found-on-diamond-princess-cruise-ship/news-story/ed2b9c07927a065530396892057ef3a2

Passengers have been told they can’t leave their cabins for 2 weeks.

Woodie said:

Michael V said:

Reports that a baby may have been infected in utero.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/mothers-may-pass-coronavirus-to-unborn-children-chinese-doctors/11934452

Whatever happened to good old Ebola, hey?

From here

From 22 to 28 January five new confirmed cases were reported in the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

As of 28 January, a total of 3421 EVD cases were reported, including 3302 confirmed and 119 probable cases, of which 2242 cases died (overall case fatality ratio 66%)

Alerts of Ebola virus disease reported, investigated, and validated daily from outbreak affected areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as of 28 January 2020

Of pretty much all of them, ebola is the one that scares me shitless. So very, very transmittable.

QANTAS employee raises concerns about cleaning a plane after a flight from Beijing, is fired.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qantas-employee-stood-down-over-coronavirus-fear-onboard-plane/news-story/55ff997be864143294c32c29a90d4956

Divine Angel said:

QANTAS employee raises concerns about cleaning a plane after a flight from Beijing, is fired.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qantas-employee-stood-down-over-coronavirus-fear-onboard-plane/news-story/55ff997be864143294c32c29a90d4956

I imagine we can slow the spread of the virus down but the modern world means it will get to most places eventually

Where do I sit on the plane.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane/

Passengers in window seats have the lowest likelihood of coming in contact with an infected person…

window seat passengers had far fewer close encounters than people in other seats, averaging 12 contacts compared to the 58 and 64 respective contacts for passengers in middle and aisle seats.

Kewl. Now to find out if I can get if off public dunny seats.

ChrispenEvan said:

Dear oh dear oh dear.

ChrispenEvan said:

They’re pandas you ignorant hicks.

Bubblecar said:

ChrispenEvan said:

They’re pandas you ignorant hicks.

Yes. Just got off the plane from Wuhan.

I think that was the joke.

party_pants said:

Bubblecar said:

ChrispenEvan said:

They’re pandas you ignorant hicks.

Yes. Just got off the plane from Wuhan.

I think that was the joke.

Ah, I thought it was an actual book cover from before this crisis.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/has-china-been-covering-up-the-coronavirus/11932982

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/has-china-been-covering-up-the-coronavirus/11932982

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/coronavirus-australian-child-trapped-in-wuhan/11932794

Well, there’s bureaucracy for you.

Michael V said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/has-china-been-covering-up-the-coronavirus/11932982

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/coronavirus-australian-child-trapped-in-wuhan/11932794

Well, there’s bureaucracy for you.

let me tell you about the Sydney Siege

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/has-china-been-covering-up-the-coronavirus/11932982

No. We’ve been getting great daily updates from them. Hardly any other country in the world with less cover-up.

Death rate still tracking quadratic growth. Upper limit on death rate is dropping as more people recover, it’s now down to 31%. Still 14% of cases in critical condition.

The quadratic growth means something very important – it means steady growth of geographic area affected. This isn’t a social network limited growth, which would be exponential, it’s a surface of the Earth limited thing.

WHO seeks $1bn to combat deadly virus, as China death toll soars

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/02/06/coronavirus-spread/

—

In Japan, health workers said 20 people from the cruise ship Diamond Princess were confirmed to have the virus, including two Australians.

Ill passengers were to be transferred to hospital for further tests and treatment when the ship docked at Yokohama on Thursday.

The Japanese government has quarantined the vessel, which has 223 Australians among its 2666 guests and 1045 crew.

mollwollfumble said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/has-china-been-covering-up-the-coronavirus/11932982

No. We’ve been getting great daily updates from them. Hardly any other country in the world with less cover-up.

Death rate still tracking quadratic growth. Upper limit on death rate is dropping as more people recover, it’s now down to 31%. Still 14% of cases in critical condition.

The quadratic growth means something very important – it means steady growth of geographic area affected. This isn’t a social network limited growth, which would be exponential, it’s a surface of the Earth limited thing.

that’s what’e said

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/doctor-who-warned-of-coronavirus-dies-in-china/11941948

With 34 year old doctors succumbing this may be deadlier than I thought. Until now I was under the impression that it was the old and frail who were dying off.

sibeen said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/doctor-who-warned-of-coronavirus-dies-in-china/11941948

With 34 year old doctors succumbing this may be deadlier than I thought. Until now I was under the impression that it was the old and frail who were dying off.

The report said he’d worked 10 days non stop so maybe he was in pretty bad shape.

This ship has been refused entry to several ports, because it stopped in Hong Kong.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/stricken-westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-japan/11943860

This other ship now has 61 confirmed coronavirus victims and has been in quarantine in Yokahama for a few days now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/spike-of-coronavirus-cases-on-board-cruise-ship/11943302

Below is the John Hopkins list and map for today.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Michael V said:

This ship has been refused entry to several ports, because it stopped in Hong Kong.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/stricken-westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-japan/11943860

This other ship now has 61 confirmed coronavirus victims and has been in quarantine in Yokahama for a few days now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/spike-of-coronavirus-cases-on-board-cruise-ship/11943302

Below is the John Hopkins list and map for today.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Is that a map of proposed nuclear strikes to halt the spread

Cymek said:

Michael V said:

This ship has been refused entry to several ports, because it stopped in Hong Kong.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/stricken-westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-japan/11943860

This other ship now has 61 confirmed coronavirus victims and has been in quarantine in Yokahama for a few days now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/spike-of-coronavirus-cases-on-board-cruise-ship/11943302

Below is the John Hopkins list and map for today.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Is that a map of proposed nuclear strikes to halt the spread

do it

Michael V said:

This ship has been refused entry to several ports, because it stopped in Hong Kong.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/stricken-westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-japan/11943860

This other ship now has 61 confirmed coronavirus victims and has been in quarantine in Yokahama for a few days now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/spike-of-coronavirus-cases-on-board-cruise-ship/11943302

Below is the John Hopkins list and map for today.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It said the ship was “not in quarantine and there were no known cases of coronavirus on board at this time”.

lol

fear it brings out our true colours even if white is a mix of all of them

What is the projection now ?

2.2 million? Less or higher?

Tau.Neutrino said:

What is the projection now ?

2.2 million? Less or higher?

Who cares we’re all dead anyway might as well be from pneumonia, not sure if à cyanide shower hurts less.

SCIENCE said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

What is the projection now ?

2.2 million? Less or higher?

Who cares we’re all dead anyway might as well be from pneumonia, not sure if à cyanide shower hurts less.

The way my neutrophils go I’d be first cab off the rank.

I’m looking around for data on it.

This site has some projections.

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/corona-virus-and-those-exponential-curves/

They estimate the peak in China will not occur until April or May. That is a lot of doublings away…

Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from Wuhan—which is central China’s transportation hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most affected city, because of its strong transport ties to Wuhan. They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.

With 8 to 12 doublings til the peak in China, if there are 80,000 infections now, in six weeks there could be 5 million. In 8 weeks 20 million, and in 12 weeks 320 million. If there are only 10,000 now, it may mean the same thing with a three-week delay. But that three weeks could make a huge difference to the final tally if the rate of doubling can be slowed aggressively now. Every day counts.

These estimates are jelly in every sense. The official graph from the John Hopkins live map above suggests the doubling time is much faster than 6 days.

This is from the Wikipedia article about novel coronavirus (as opposed to coronaviruses in general).

There’s at least two things listed here that make me wonder why they’re included. Mail specifically mentioned is one. Sesame oil is the other; is sesame oil routinely used (or old wives’ tale) to kill germs on surfaces? (Disappointingly, no mention of efficacy of potatoes in socks.)

Divine Angel said:

This is from the Wikipedia article about novel coronavirus (as opposed to coronaviruses in general).

There’s at least two things listed here that make me wonder why they’re included. Mail specifically mentioned is one. Sesame oil is the other; is sesame oil routinely used (or old wives’ tale) to kill germs on surfaces? (Disappointingly, no mention of efficacy of potatoes in socks.)

If you have a reference to back up your contribution Wikipedia generally lets it be included.

Xi Jinping has turned invisible during China’s coronavirus epidemic, likely to cover his back in case things go badly wrong

Massive surge in coronavirus cases as China mourns death of whistleblower Dr Li Wenliang

Divine Angel said:

This is from the Wikipedia article about novel coronavirus (as opposed to coronaviruses in general).

There’s at least two things listed here that make me wonder why they’re included. Mail specifically mentioned is one. Sesame oil is the other; is sesame oil routinely used (or old wives’ tale) to kill germs on surfaces? (Disappointingly, no mention of efficacy of potatoes in socks.)

I’d suspect the sesame oil gets a mention because it is a common ingredient on Chinese pantry shelves. Whether it would be used on general surfaces I would think is debateable, but it might be used on wooden chopping surfaces. Perhaps.

buffy said:

Divine Angel said:

This is from the Wikipedia article about novel coronavirus (as opposed to coronaviruses in general).

There’s at least two things listed here that make me wonder why they’re included. Mail specifically mentioned is one. Sesame oil is the other; is sesame oil routinely used (or old wives’ tale) to kill germs on surfaces? (Disappointingly, no mention of efficacy of potatoes in socks.)

I’d suspect the sesame oil gets a mention because it is a common ingredient on Chinese pantry shelves. Whether it would be used on general surfaces I would think is debateable, but it might be used on wooden chopping surfaces. Perhaps.

Goodness, the (crazy mad) bleach drinkers will love that advice.
On the other hand….ethanol, woohoo

ruby said:

buffy said:

Divine Angel said:

This is from the Wikipedia article about novel coronavirus (as opposed to coronaviruses in general).

There’s at least two things listed here that make me wonder why they’re included. Mail specifically mentioned is one. Sesame oil is the other; is sesame oil routinely used (or old wives’ tale) to kill germs on surfaces? (Disappointingly, no mention of efficacy of potatoes in socks.)

I’d suspect the sesame oil gets a mention because it is a common ingredient on Chinese pantry shelves. Whether it would be used on general surfaces I would think is debateable, but it might be used on wooden chopping surfaces. Perhaps.

Goodness, the (crazy mad) bleach drinkers will love that advice.
On the other hand….ethanol, woohoo

There was a thing in the British Medical Journal back in the mid-2000s about what are effective disinfectants.

Their conclusion was that there’s only three things that kill 100% of germs on contact:

1. Alcohol
2. Chlorine (i.e. bleach)
3. Phenyle

All these things that ‘kill 99.9% of household germs’ are not good. That 0.1% represents bum-coverage for the manufacturers if it’s shown that their product doesn’t kill all germs, but it can also mean that the product kills all but the toughest of bugs.

Germs compete for space on surfaces, and when 99.9% of them are wiped out, the really tough ones that survive will say ‘woo hoo, lots of vacant space, let’s get busy and spread!’.

So, you wind up with surfaces entirely covered with the germs that the you-beaut product can’t dent.

captain_spalding said:

There was a thing in the British Medical Journal back in the mid-2000s about what are effective disinfectants.

Their conclusion was that there’s only three things that kill 100% of germs on contact:

1. Alcohol
2. Chlorine (i.e. bleach)
3. Phenyle

All these things that ‘kill 99.9% of household germs’ are not good. That 0.1% represents bum-coverage for the manufacturers if it’s shown that their product doesn’t kill all germs, but it can also mean that the product kills all but the toughest of bugs.

Germs compete for space on surfaces, and when 99.9% of them are wiped out, the really tough ones that survive will say ‘woo hoo, lots of vacant space, let’s get busy and spread!’.

So, you wind up with surfaces entirely covered with the germs that the you-beaut product can’t dent.

I suppose people think it’s close enough, so it’s good enough. But those germs that aren’t killed become resistant…

Divine Angel said:

captain_spalding said:

There was a thing in the British Medical Journal back in the mid-2000s about what are effective disinfectants.

Their conclusion was that there’s only three things that kill 100% of germs on contact:

1. Alcohol
2. Chlorine (i.e. bleach)
3. Phenyle

All these things that ‘kill 99.9% of household germs’ are not good. That 0.1% represents bum-coverage for the manufacturers if it’s shown that their product doesn’t kill all germs, but it can also mean that the product kills all but the toughest of bugs.

Germs compete for space on surfaces, and when 99.9% of them are wiped out, the really tough ones that survive will say ‘woo hoo, lots of vacant space, let’s get busy and spread!’.

So, you wind up with surfaces entirely covered with the germs that the you-beaut product can’t dent.

I suppose people think it’s close enough, so it’s good enough. But those germs that aren’t killed become resistant…

If they’re not killed, then it would seem that they’re already resistant to whatever is being used.

Divine Angel said:

captain_spalding said:

There was a thing in the British Medical Journal back in the mid-2000s about what are effective disinfectants.

Their conclusion was that there’s only three things that kill 100% of germs on contact:

1. Alcohol
2. Chlorine (i.e. bleach)
3. Phenyle

All these things that ‘kill 99.9% of household germs’ are not good. That 0.1% represents bum-coverage for the manufacturers if it’s shown that their product doesn’t kill all germs, but it can also mean that the product kills all but the toughest of bugs.

Germs compete for space on surfaces, and when 99.9% of them are wiped out, the really tough ones that survive will say ‘woo hoo, lots of vacant space, let’s get busy and spread!’.

So, you wind up with surfaces entirely covered with the germs that the you-beaut product can’t dent.

I suppose people think it’s close enough, so it’s good enough. But those germs that aren’t killed become resistant…

resistance isn’t futile?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-sars/11947010

And the latest from John Hopkins uni. Deat toll now 812. SARS death toll 774.

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-sars/11947010

And the latest from John Hopkins uni. Deat toll now 812. SARS death toll 774.

still 2.2%

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-sars/11947010

And the latest from John Hopkins uni. Deat toll now 812. SARS death toll 774.

still 2.2%

I was talking to Hanrahan at mass this morning and he reckons we’ll all be rooned.

The Pangolin Is Now a Potential Suspect in Spreading The Wuhan Coronavirus to Humans

Tau.Neutrino said:

The Pangolin Is Now a Potential Suspect in Spreading The Wuhan Coronavirus to Humans

Good to see it getting back at the creeps that exploit it.

PermeateFree said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

The Pangolin Is Now a Potential Suspect in Spreading The Wuhan Coronavirus to Humans

Good to see it getting back at the creeps that exploit it.

yep.

PermeateFree said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

The Pangolin Is Now a Potential Suspect in Spreading The Wuhan Coronavirus to Humans

Good to see it getting back at the creeps that exploit it.

The Chinese Governments first response was to censor the Dr who first discovered it, thus giving the virus a head start, instead of sending in a repose team straight away, they let it have a few days to get worse.

Tau.Neutrino said:

PermeateFree said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

The Pangolin Is Now a Potential Suspect in Spreading The Wuhan Coronavirus to Humans

Good to see it getting back at the creeps that exploit it.

The Chinese Governments first response was to censor the Dr who first discovered it, thus giving the virus a head start, instead of sending in a repose team straight away, they let it have a few days to get worse.

What happens when the incubation period get longer, and symptoms take longer etc

and some dumb officials censor some Dr again

Spreads further. I guess

Coronavirus deaths still showing quadratic growth. Total dead 814.

Coronavirus cases have now been reported in a total of 27 countries.
Australia has 15 active cases plus 5 recovered cases.

mollwollfumble said:

Coronavirus deaths still showing quadratic growth. Total dead 814.

Coronavirus cases have now been reported in a total of 27 countries.
Australia has 15 active cases plus 5 recovered cases.

I can’t find any information about the people who have died. Is this thing going for the young and the old like most cold/flu things that move on to pneumonia? Is it like the 1918 one that took out young folk (admittedly debilitated from war)? Is it people who are already unwell, ie have co-morbidities?

“Coronavirus infects 60 more people on Diamond Princess cruise ship, bringing total to 130

Japan’s Health Ministry says another 60 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship have been infected with coronavirus.

It brings the total number of cases on the ship to 130.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-10/coronavirus-diamond-princess-new-cases-japan-cruise-ship/11951058

And the latest from John Hopkins uni.

Michael V said:

“Coronavirus infects 60 more people on Diamond Princess cruise ship, bringing total to 130

Japan’s Health Ministry says another 60 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship have been infected with coronavirus.

It brings the total number of cases on the ship to 130.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-10/coronavirus-diamond-princess-new-cases-japan-cruise-ship/11951058

And the latest from John Hopkins uni.

Damn. This morning on the radio they said 70 cases onboard. They also talked to a couple of Aussies on the ship.

Apparently they traced the source of the virus back to a dozen monkeys

Cymek said:

Apparently they traced the source of the virus back to a dozen monkeys

I’ve heard so many different things: bats, snakes, pangolins…

Divine Angel said:

Cymek said:

Apparently they traced the source of the virus back to a dozen monkeys

I’ve heard so many different things: bats, snakes, pangolins…

I’ve not read anything even remotely official.

Divine Angel said:

Cymek said:

Apparently they traced the source of the virus back to a dozen monkeys

I’ve heard so many different things: bats, snakes, pangolins…

It was bats this afternoon, but that was on the Mandy Vanstone prog. so it’s probably wrong.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

Cymek said:

Apparently they traced the source of the virus back to a dozen monkeys

I’ve heard so many different things: bats, snakes, pangolins…

It was bats this afternoon, but that was on the Mandy Vanstone prog. so it’s probably wrong.

Has anyone yet ruled out humans as the source of the virus?

For instance, with the black death it is now understood that the virus began in humans rather than rats.

Today’s trendline. The upper limit on death rate has now dropped to 21%, down from an upper limit of 39% just 6 days ago. ie. the recovery rate is increasing.

Death rate vs recovery rate. Don’t get too excited here, the ratio of the two lines will eventually tend to a constant.

Latest from John Hopkins uni:

Michael V said:

Latest from John Hopkins uni:

I see the count is determined from a number of sources
I wonder if China could lie if the situation was far worse and hide the real numbers infected and who died.
Wouldn’t serve much point I imagine

Michael V said:

Latest from John Hopkins uni:

Can you please amend that to Johns Hopkins.

buffy said:

Michael V said:

Latest from John Hopkins uni:

Can you please amend that to Johns Hopkins.

2.3
getting worse

“Latest Study Suggests The New Coronavirus Is Also Spreading Via Feces

Diarrhoea may be a secondary path of transmission for the novel coronavirus, scientists said Friday following the publication of the latest study reporting patients with abdominal symptoms and loose stool.

The primary path is believed to be virus-laden droplets from an infected person’s cough, though researchers in early cases have said they focused heavily on patients with respiratory symptoms and may have overlooked those linked to the digestive tract.”

https://www.sciencealert.com/latest-coronavirus-study-suggests-it-can-also-be-spread-through-poop?perpetual=yes&limitstart=1

buffy said:

Michael V said:

Latest from Johns Hopkins uni:

Can you please amend that to Johns Hopkins.

Huh. I have never noticed that before. fixed

Michael V said:

“Latest Study Suggests The New Coronavirus Is Also Spreading Via Feces

Diarrhoea may be a secondary path of transmission for the novel coronavirus, scientists said Friday following the publication of the latest study reporting patients with abdominal symptoms and loose stool.

The primary path is believed to be virus-laden droplets from an infected person’s cough, though researchers in early cases have said they focused heavily on patients with respiratory symptoms and may have overlooked those linked to the digestive tract.”

https://www.sciencealert.com/latest-coronavirus-study-suggests-it-can-also-be-spread-through-poop?perpetual=yes&limitstart=1

well it’s true, there has been a lot of hyperbolic alarmist bullshit

Michael V said:

buffy said:

Michael V said:

Latest from Johns Hopkins uni:

Can you please amend that to Johns Hopkins.

Huh. I have never noticed that before. fixed

It’s just grating to me because I’ve known the oddity of the name for many, many years. Thanks.

buffy said:

Michael V said:

buffy said:

Can you please amend that to Johns Hopkins.

Huh. I have never noticed that before. fixed

It’s just grating to me because I’ve known the oddity of the name for many, many years. Thanks.

It was named after a number of men called John who noticed their kin like to hop