Will we get “Negative Oil”?

Will the oil price go negative?

Woodie said:

Will we get “Negative Oil”?

Will the oil price go negative?

Peak Oil was never a concept taken seriously by relevant experts.

dv said:

Woodie said:

Will we get “Negative Oil”?

Will the oil price go negative?

Peak Oil was never a concept taken seriously by relevant experts.

But will Negative Oil be taken seriously by relevant experts?

It was a failed scientific concept and as sure as there is shit in a cat warming will go the same way.

In a word “fracking”.

The USA discovered that its old onshore fields could be brought back to life. Because onshore oil is so much cheaper to produce than offshore oil, they had the option of holding onto it for a high price or dumping it on the market at a low price.

They decided to dump it on the market at a low price, in order to cripple Venezuela’s oil-based economy. And presumably to hurt the Middle East as well.

Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.

I “pats meself” on the back for choosing to buy a car five years ago that is not the most frugal of vehicles, averaging closer to 7 liters/100 km rather than 6.Those people who bought expensive hybrids and electric vehicles (about three times the price of my car) back then must be really pissed off.

By the way, the Suzukis have a really low fuel consumption – but cost a lot to refuel because they won’t take E10 ot 91 unleaded.

I have some peak oil graphs somewhere, from before the USA dump. Like this one. Peak oil in 2010.

mollwollfumble said:

In a word “fracking”.

The USA discovered that its old onshore fields could be brought back to life. Because onshore oil is so much cheaper to produce than offshore oil, they had the option of holding onto it for a high price or dumping it on the market at a low price.

They decided to dump it on the market at a low price, in order to cripple Venezuela’s oil-based economy. And presumably to hurt the Middle East as well.

Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.

I “pats meself” on the back for choosing to buy a car five years ago that is not the most frugal of vehicles, averaging closer to 7 liters/100 km rather than 6.Those people who bought expensive hybrids and electric vehicles (about three times the price of my car) back then must be really pissed off.

By the way, the Suzukis have a really low fuel consumption – but cost a lot to refuel because they won’t take E10 ot 91 unleaded.

I have some peak oil graphs somewhere, from before the USA dump. Like this one. Peak oil in 2010.

Yeah, trap for new players, check what fuel your shiny new car will require.

“Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.”

No.

I doubt we’ll ever see 3 digit oil prices again. As I said when POM was on about this 15 years ago, new fields and techniques have continued to be found, and demand will decline as the ICE is phased out.

dv said:

“Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.”

No.

I doubt we’ll ever see 3 digit oil prices again. As I said when POM was on about this 15 years ago, new fields and techniques have continued to be found, and demand will decline as the ICE is phased out.

Oil is the only non-renewable resource in danger of exhaustion in the foreseeable future, say within 100 to 200 years. Nothing else, not gold, not any of the other metals, not gemstones of any sort. Helium in the longer term is at risk because it comes from natural gas.

Oil has been propped up lately by improved technology and government belligerence.

When oil starts to run out we’ll know we’ve been nudged. Alternatives ethanol and biodiesel require such an increase in arable land that forests will suffer and available water will shrink.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/over-a-barrel-the-oil-industry-s-supply-surge-and-demand-shock-20200326-p54e4t.html

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

“Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.”

No.

I doubt we’ll ever see 3 digit oil prices again. As I said when POM was on about this 15 years ago, new fields and techniques have continued to be found, and demand will decline as the ICE is phased out.

Oil is the only non-renewable resource in danger of exhaustion in the foreseeable future, say within 100 to 200 years. Nothing else, not gold, not any of the other metals, not gemstones of any sort. Helium in the longer term is at risk because it comes from natural gas.

Oil has been propped up lately by improved technology and government belligerence.

When oil starts to run out we’ll know we’ve been nudged. Alternatives ethanol and biodiesel require such an increase in arable land that forests will suffer and available water will shrink.

We could use sea water for growing algae, if we pick the right species. There’s plenty of flat land on the Nullabor plain that is not currently being used for agriculture or forests. Penty of space without crowding out food production.

party_pants said:

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

“Peak oil is coming, as soon as either the Saudi Arabian or Mexican oilfields run out of oil the price is going to go through the roof.”

No.

I doubt we’ll ever see 3 digit oil prices again. As I said when POM was on about this 15 years ago, new fields and techniques have continued to be found, and demand will decline as the ICE is phased out.

Oil is the only non-renewable resource in danger of exhaustion in the foreseeable future, say within 100 to 200 years. Nothing else, not gold, not any of the other metals, not gemstones of any sort. Helium in the longer term is at risk because it comes from natural gas.

Oil has been propped up lately by improved technology and government belligerence.

When oil starts to run out we’ll know we’ve been nudged. Alternatives ethanol and biodiesel require such an increase in arable land that forests will suffer and available water will shrink.

We could use sea water for growing algae, if we pick the right species. There’s plenty of flat land on the Nullabor plain that is not currently being used for agriculture or forests. Penty of space without crowding out food production.

LOL

PermeateFree said:

party_pants said:

mollwollfumble said:

Oil is the only non-renewable resource in danger of exhaustion in the foreseeable future, say within 100 to 200 years. Nothing else, not gold, not any of the other metals, not gemstones of any sort. Helium in the longer term is at risk because it comes from natural gas.

Oil has been propped up lately by improved technology and government belligerence.

When oil starts to run out we’ll know we’ve been nudged. Alternatives ethanol and biodiesel require such an increase in arable land that forests will suffer and available water will shrink.

We could use sea water for growing algae, if we pick the right species. There’s plenty of flat land on the Nullabor plain that is not currently being used for agriculture or forests. Penty of space without crowding out food production.

LOL

As part of my CSIRO work, I did look into seawater for growing algae for biodiesel. I even went along the the “international conference on plant lipids”. Not feasible. A significant problem is that even if an algae produces oil, it only does so under a tight range of environmental conditions. It’s hard enough to grow a specific species without contamination, and coaxing it to produce oil is much more difficult.

dv said:

Woodie said:

Will we get “Negative Oil”?

Will the oil price go negative?

Peak Oil was never a concept taken seriously by relevant experts.

Have a look at https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ for up to date oil statistics.

Known oil reserves. 1,650,585,140,000 barrels in 2016.
The time to run out of known reserves at the current consumption rate is 47 years.

Increases in known reserves happened in 2011 and 2013. In total, a 21% increase.
In 2010, known oil reserves were 1,356,686,395,000 barrels.

Here’s why we haven’t had peak oil

World oil consumption has been continually rising since 1983. There has been a 60% rise in oil consumption since that time.
Oil reserves by country:
18% – Venezuela
16% – Saudi Arabia
10% – Canada
9.5% – Iran
8.5% – Iraq
6% – Kuwait
6% – UAE
5% – Russia
…
2.1% – USA
…
1.5% – China
…
0.6% – Mexico (PS. I was wrong in thinking that Mexico was a significant player)
…
0.22% – Indonesia
…
0.07% – Australia
…