Date: 4/04/2020 06:59:02
From: buffy
ID: 1531519
Subject: And now for the flu season

I had a vague recollection of seeing reports of intentional flu nasal inoculation studies, probably in the 1980’s/90’s. Going looking, I didn’t find the particular one, but I did find a very interesting overview of the literature on flu experiments. It is twelve years old now, but as it is a summary of previous work, still interesting.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/167/7/775/83777

For those who don’t want the nitty gritty, here is the Abstract.

The dynamics of viral shedding and symptoms following influenza virus infection are key factors when considering epidemic control measures. The authors reviewed published studies describing the course of influenza virus infection in placebo-treated and untreated volunteers challenged with wild-type influenza virus. A total of 56 different studies with 1,280 healthy participants were considered. Viral shedding increased sharply between 0.5 and 1 day after challenge and consistently peaked on day 2. The duration of viral shedding averaged over 375 participants was 4.80 days (95% confidence interval: 4.31, 5.29). The frequency of symptomatic infection was 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 58.3, 74.5). Fever was observed in 37.0% of A/H1N1, 40.6% of A/H3N2 (p = 0.86), and 7.5% of B infections (p = 0.001). The total symptoms scores increased on day 1 and peaked on day 3. Systemic symptoms peaked on day 2. No such data exist for children or elderly subjects, but epidemiologic studies suggest that the natural history might differ. The present analysis confirms prior expert opinion on the duration of viral shedding or the frequency of asymptomatic influenza infection, extends prior knowledge on the dynamics of viral shedding and symptoms, and provides original results on the frequency of respiratory symptoms or fever.

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Date: 4/04/2020 11:17:24
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1531618
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.

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Date: 4/04/2020 12:57:12
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1531695
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

mollwollfumble said:


Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:14:59
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1531719
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

SCIENCE said:


mollwollfumble said:

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

No.

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:16:27
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1531722
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Witty Rejoinder said:


SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

No.

Noted, you mean ¿

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:18:05
From: captain_spalding
ID: 1531725
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Witty Rejoinder said:


SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

No.

…said Luigi Vercotti.

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:18:16
From: Tamb
ID: 1531726
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Witty Rejoinder said:


SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

No.


Remember the old (Pre Covid) saying. “Coughs & sneezes spread diseases” Applies to flu as well.

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:23:23
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1531734
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Tamb said:


Witty Rejoinder said:

SCIENCE said:

so ‘u don’t think that might be because Australians don’t want to be kicked out of whatever they’re doing, want to hide the fact they’ve been unwell, cover up their potential COVID-19 if you like, noting of course that a significant number of Australians are Chinese Australians

No.


Remember the old (Pre Covid) saying. “Coughs & sneezes spread diseases” Applies to flu as well.

agree but the cynic in us says “remember all those geniuses posting on social media how paracetamol got them on a flight”

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:25:48
From: transition
ID: 1531739
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

yeah not much of a party season for influenza and many other common cold viruses, nobody’s up for those out of control parties anymore, nobody much wants to host them, punching holes in the walls, taking over the kitchen, and the sound system, and the music is terrible

starved of venues and hosts, reproduction rates in decline, year or so the last of the worst of them will be incarcerated, doomed to extinction

and cheers buffy for the OP

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:28:02
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1531742
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

transition said:


yeah not much of a party season for influenza and many other common cold viruses, nobody’s up for those out of control parties anymore, nobody much wants to host them, punching holes in the walls, taking over the kitchen, and the sound system, and the music is terrible

starved of venues and hosts, reproduction rates in decline, year or so the last of the worst of them will be incarcerated, doomed to extinction

and cheers buffy for the OP

so we can expect poor herd immunity to influenza in coming years, and an even worse ‘flu’ death rate hey

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:29:45
From: transition
ID: 1531745
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

SCIENCE said:


transition said:

yeah not much of a party season for influenza and many other common cold viruses, nobody’s up for those out of control parties anymore, nobody much wants to host them, punching holes in the walls, taking over the kitchen, and the sound system, and the music is terrible

starved of venues and hosts, reproduction rates in decline, year or so the last of the worst of them will be incarcerated, doomed to extinction

and cheers buffy for the OP

so we can expect poor herd immunity to influenza in coming years, and an even worse ‘flu’ death rate hey

I was talking about corona, the need to completely eliminate it in Australia

I was being humorous, trying

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:32:01
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1531746
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

transition said:


SCIENCE said:

transition said:

yeah not much of a party season for influenza and many other common cold viruses, nobody’s up for those out of control parties anymore, nobody much wants to host them, punching holes in the walls, taking over the kitchen, and the sound system, and the music is terrible

starved of venues and hosts, reproduction rates in decline, year or so the last of the worst of them will be incarcerated, doomed to extinction

and cheers buffy for the OP

so we can expect poor herd immunity to influenza in coming years, and an even worse ‘flu’ death rate hey

I was talking about corona, the need to completely eliminate it in Australia

I was being humorous, trying

trouble is now there’s an unstoppable réservoir called the USA

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:36:36
From: transition
ID: 1531747
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

SCIENCE said:


transition said:

SCIENCE said:

so we can expect poor herd immunity to influenza in coming years, and an even worse ‘flu’ death rate hey

I was talking about corona, the need to completely eliminate it in Australia

I was being humorous, trying

trouble is now there’s an unstoppable réservoir called the USA

just do the right thing here, if you’re in Australia, best you can do

the land of the entrepreneurial new capitalism, that tortured capitalism and democracy to near death is a far off place

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Date: 4/04/2020 13:41:15
From: transition
ID: 1531754
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

transition said:


SCIENCE said:

transition said:

I was talking about corona, the need to completely eliminate it in Australia

I was being humorous, trying

trouble is now there’s an unstoppable réservoir called the USA

just do the right thing here, if you’re in Australia, best you can do

the land of the entrepreneurial new capitalism, that tortured capitalism and democracy to near death is a far off place

really it’s an entrepreneurial morality, if it qualifies as morality at all, that permeated economics and politics, probably in that order

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Date: 4/04/2020 14:56:05
From: buffy
ID: 1531820
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Looks like if you look for it, many asymptomatic people carry around rhinoviruses in the season too.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120619225719.htm

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Date: 4/04/2020 14:57:30
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1531822
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

buffy said:


Looks like if you look for it, many asymptomatic people carry around rhinoviruses in the season too.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120619225719.htm

Looks that way.

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:02:52
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1531825
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Tau.Neutrino said:


buffy said:

Looks like if you look for it, many asymptomatic people carry around rhinoviruses in the season too.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120619225719.htm

Looks that way.

It would be interesting to see the figures of all previous outbreaks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

That could be a university study.

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:05:13
From: buffy
ID: 1531828
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Tau.Neutrino said:


Tau.Neutrino said:

buffy said:

Looks like if you look for it, many asymptomatic people carry around rhinoviruses in the season too.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120619225719.htm

Looks that way.

It would be interesting to see the figures of all previous outbreaks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

That could be a university study.

Not possible. Generally in outbreaks only the symptomatic are tested. You haven’t go time to do the detailed science, too busy looking after the unwell

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:06:42
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1531830
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

buffy said:


Tau.Neutrino said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Looks that way.

It would be interesting to see the figures of all previous outbreaks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

That could be a university study.

Not possible. Generally in outbreaks only the symptomatic are tested. You haven’t go time to do the detailed science, too busy looking after the unwell

ok.

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:18:20
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1531840
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

transition said:

and cheers buffy for the OP

Yes, particularly this bit.

“Viral shedding increased sharply between 0.5 and 1 day after challenge and consistently peaked on day 2. The duration of viral shedding averaged over 375 participants was 4.80 days (95% confidence interval: 4.31, 5.29). The frequency of symptomatic infection was 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 58.3, 74.5). Fever was observed in 37.0% of A/H1N1, 40.6% of A/H3N2 (p = 0.86), and 7.5% of B infections (p = 0.001). The total symptoms scores increased on day 1 and peaked on day 3. Systemic symptoms peaked on day 2.”

Only 4.8 days. That’s tiny. I would have guessed at nearer to three weeks.

That approx 40% rate of fever is interesting, too.

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:28:13
From: buffy
ID: 1531848
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

mollwollfumble said:


transition said:

and cheers buffy for the OP

Yes, particularly this bit.

“Viral shedding increased sharply between 0.5 and 1 day after challenge and consistently peaked on day 2. The duration of viral shedding averaged over 375 participants was 4.80 days (95% confidence interval: 4.31, 5.29). The frequency of symptomatic infection was 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 58.3, 74.5). Fever was observed in 37.0% of A/H1N1, 40.6% of A/H3N2 (p = 0.86), and 7.5% of B infections (p = 0.001). The total symptoms scores increased on day 1 and peaked on day 3. Systemic symptoms peaked on day 2.”

Only 4.8 days. That’s tiny. I would have guessed at nearer to three weeks.

That approx 40% rate of fever is interesting, too.

I’ve remember the shedding phase as when the virus makes you sneeze a lot so it can spread (OK, a little bit of anthropomorphising can be a helpful memory aid). And I read that using aspirin increases the rate of shedding. But I see that is fairly old research. Doesn’t mean it isn’t true though.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/163931

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:30:10
From: buffy
ID: 1531850
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

A later bit of research on the shedding thing.

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-abstract/162/6/1277/918184

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Date: 4/04/2020 15:57:34
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1531863
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

buffy said:


A later bit of research on the shedding thing.

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-abstract/162/6/1277/918184

Let’s see.

56 volunteers.
Rhinovirus type 2.
Virus shedding 3 to 7 days.

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Date: 4/04/2020 16:01:24
From: buffy
ID: 1531865
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of research done. But I suppose it’s a bit difficult to get people willing to be seeded up the nose with virus.

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Date: 4/04/2020 16:02:24
From: Arts
ID: 1531868
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

buffy said:


There doesn’t seem to be a lot of research done. But I suppose it’s a bit difficult to get people willing to be seeded up the nose with virus.

quitters

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Date: 5/04/2020 09:28:22
From: wookiemeister
ID: 1532323
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

Google : where does flu come from

The answer will amaze you.

The reservoir of infection continues

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Date: 5/04/2020 09:38:19
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1532324
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

wookiemeister said:


Google : where does flu come from

The answer will amaze you.

The reservoir of infection continues

You’ll need to step up Wookie if you want to compete with MZL as the forum prophet of impending COVID-19 doom…

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Date: 13/04/2020 05:22:08
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1537567
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

mollwollfumble said:


Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


> Remember the old (Pre Covid) saying. “Coughs & sneezes spread diseases” Applies to flu as well.

Even lower now. Going to be the best flu season on record.

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Date: 13/04/2020 06:22:16
From: roughbarked
ID: 1537572
Subject: re: And now for the flu season

mollwollfumble said:


mollwollfumble said:

Incidence of flu in Australia is way down this week. Possibly the lowest incidence ever.


> Remember the old (Pre Covid) saying. “Coughs & sneezes spread diseases” Applies to flu as well.

Even lower now. Going to be the best flu season on record.


Wash your hands before you touch me
Please sneeze into your sleeve

Sounds like a good song title line.

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