there.

Arts said:

there.

why not here

damn, I was hoping nobody would notice.

party_pants said:

damn, I was hoping nobody would notice.

think of it as a historical record.

Arts said:

there.

Thank you. I went walking with the dogs, looked at where Con is going to plant gods knows how much garlic (he’s a retired market gardener from Werribee), and then came home for breakfast. Since then I’ve been pulling weeds and planting potatoes.

(Don’t panic, we were standing in the street looking at his garden from outside)

Woodie said:

I just love a good false dichotomy.

A wah???? Hands up who knows what a “false dichotomy” is when they see one?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/markets-and-shares/2020/04/16/coronavirus-health-economy-debate/

Is there such a thing as a trichotomy? A quadchotomy?

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I just love a good false dichotomy.

A wah???? Hands up who knows what a “false dichotomy” is when they see one?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/markets-and-shares/2020/04/16/coronavirus-health-economy-debate/

Is there such a thing as a trichotomy? A quadchotomy?

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

Arts said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I just love a good false dichotomy.

A wah???? Hands up who knows what a “false dichotomy” is when they see one?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/markets-and-shares/2020/04/16/coronavirus-health-economy-debate/

Is there such a thing as a trichotomy? A quadchotomy?

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

It’s true, bad things only happen to the other people.

Arts said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I just love a good false dichotomy.

A wah???? Hands up who knows what a “false dichotomy” is when they see one?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/markets-and-shares/2020/04/16/coronavirus-health-economy-debate/

Is there such a thing as a trichotomy? A quadchotomy?

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

They don’t make up 80% of the population. The virus might kill off all the poor people but it need to dip into the middle and upper classes to get its quota of 80%.

The 80% figure being the level required to reach herd immunity. I’ve heard some people say 60% but others think that is too low.

SCIENCE said:

Arts said:

party_pants said:

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

It’s true, bad things only happen to the other people.

Not sure the correct terminology for this but what’s the median cumulative population by income ¿

Or in other attempted words, if we histogram normalisé the income curve, what would map to halfway ¿

SCIENCE said:

Not sure the correct terminology for this but what’s the median cumulative population by income ¿

Or in other attempted words, if we histogram normalisé the income curve, what would map to halfway ¿

oooo errrr,Mr Science. We’ve had a dichotomy (and a false one at that), a dilemma, and a quandary. Do we now have a tautology?

Woodie said:

SCIENCE said:

Not sure the correct terminology for this but what’s the median cumulative population by income ¿

Or in other attempted words, if we histogram normalisé the income curve, what would map to halfway ¿

oooo errrr,Mr Science. We’ve had a dichotomy (and a false one at that), a dilemma, and a quandary. Do we now have a tautology?

Nothing wrong with tautologies.

Thy are so good you have to say them twice.

A growing number of those infected with Covid-19 are reporting “small dermatological lesions” on their feet. The measles-like marks are primarily seen in children and young people and are presenting before other coronavirus symptoms, which could be a tell-tale sign of the onset of the disease.

The “curious finding” has been reported in numerous cases observed in Italy, France, and Spain, according to a statement released by the General Council of Official Colleges of Podiatrists in Spain, who created a registry of patients confirmed and believed to have contracted SARS-CoV-2. Purple-colored lesions similar to those of chickenpox or chilblains, sores resulting from exposure to cold temperatures, usually appear around the toes and often heal without leaving marks on the skin.

“The Council of Podiatrists urges its Colleges and its members to be very vigilant because this may be a sign of COVID-19 detection that can help to avoid the spread,” writes the council.

“The Council wants to convey a message of reassurance to parents and possible victims, given the benign nature of the lesions, and to remember that they should monitor the appearance of the other clinical symptoms characteristic of COVID-19, such as cough, fever, respiratory distress, etc.”

snip

Podiatrists note the findings are new and a “short amount of time” has elapsed since being reported. Even so, it is important to consider foot lesions as a potential symptom of Covid-19 before others develop. If a person has lesions and no history of stings, burns, or other trauma, doctors advise to isolate the person in quarantine and treat with a topical corticosteroid. “Avoid unfounded alarmism” but do consult medical professionals over telemedicine and send a photograph to the doctor, perhaps requesting a Covid-19 test. Only go to the hospital if there is an emergency.

MORE: https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/foot-lesions-reported-as-symptom-of-covid19-in-children-some-adults/?fbclid=IwAR2OybCDStwZXoIgo6eXge2-CNFRIQQ5-VjXp39h0sjyuIhWTah9kmDgLgw

party_pants said:

Arts said:

party_pants said:

Well yes. The thing is that “business as usual” is not an option. If 80% of your population catch the virus and somewhere around 10% of those people die – then your economy is also screwed. You can’t have business as usual under those conditions.

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

They don’t make up 80% of the population. The virus might kill off all the poor people but it need to dip into the middle and upper classes to get its quota of 80%.

The 80% figure being the level required to reach herd immunity. I’ve heard some people say 60% but others think that is too low.

There may be no herd immunity with COVID-19. We don’t actually know yet whether the antibodies produced will protect against re-infection.

As I understand it, lack of acquired immunity to other human-infecting coronaviruses is the norm, so re-infection is also the norm.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Woodie said:

SCIENCE said:

Not sure the correct terminology for this but what’s the median cumulative population by income ¿

Or in other attempted words, if we histogram normalisé the income curve, what would map to halfway ¿

oooo errrr,Mr Science. We’ve had a dichotomy (and a false one at that), a dilemma, and a quandary. Do we now have a tautology?

Nothing wrong with tautologies.

Thy are so good you have to say them twice.

They said that about New York. Not so good what they’re saying about it now, though.

New York, New York, so good they named it twice,
New York, New York, all the scandal and the vice, 1 love it!
New York, New York, now isn’t it a pity ………
What they say about New York City

Holy f’n moly!

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

Arts said:

aren’t people just assuming it’s only the poor people who will die? in this way their business will not be affected.

They don’t make up 80% of the population. The virus might kill off all the poor people but it need to dip into the middle and upper classes to get its quota of 80%.

The 80% figure being the level required to reach herd immunity. I’ve heard some people say 60% but others think that is too low.

There may be no herd immunity with COVID-19. We don’t actually know yet whether the antibodies produced will protect against re-infection.

As I understand it, lack of acquired immunity to other human-infecting coronaviruses is the norm, so re-infection is also the norm.

I read a headline this morning saying a guy in China had been reinfected three times.

Divine Angel said:

I read a headline this morning saying a guy in China had been reinfected three times.

China record! China! China! China!

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

They don’t make up 80% of the population. The virus might kill off all the poor people but it need to dip into the middle and upper classes to get its quota of 80%.

The 80% figure being the level required to reach herd immunity. I’ve heard some people say 60% but others think that is too low.

There may be no herd immunity with COVID-19. We don’t actually know yet whether the antibodies produced will protect against re-infection.

As I understand it, lack of acquired immunity to other human-infecting coronaviruses is the norm, so re-infection is also the norm.

I read a headline this morning saying a guy in China had been reinfected three times.

Jesus. They can’t even manufacture a virus properly!

/jk, obviously.

Rule 303 said:

Holy f’n moly!

I uses Facebook Purity. You don’t get “sponsored” posts, (or a lot of other shit ether). It’s brilliant. Free and highly recommended. A sample of the shit you can remove.

captain_spalding said:

Divine Angel said:

I read a headline this morning saying a guy in China had been reinfected three times.

China record! China! China! China!

lol remember how they said it didn’t transmit between humans

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

They don’t make up 80% of the population. The virus might kill off all the poor people but it need to dip into the middle and upper classes to get its quota of 80%.

The 80% figure being the level required to reach herd immunity. I’ve heard some people say 60% but others think that is too low.

There may be no herd immunity with COVID-19. We don’t actually know yet whether the antibodies produced will protect against re-infection.

As I understand it, lack of acquired immunity to other human-infecting coronaviruses is the norm, so re-infection is also the norm.

I read a headline this morning saying a guy in China had been reinfected three times.

Is that one of their fatal cases?

Woodie said:

Rule 303 said:

Holy f’n moly!

I uses Facebook Purity. You don’t get “sponsored” posts, (or a lot of other shit ether). It’s brilliant. Free and highly recommended. A sample of the shit you can remove.

Interesting. Thank you.

Contamination at C.D.C. labs resulted in delayed coronavirus tests.

Federal officials acknowledged on Saturday that sloppy laboratory practices at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention caused contamination that rendered the nation’s first coronavirus tests ineffective.

Two of the three C.D.C. laboratories in Atlanta that created the coronavirus test kits violated their own manufacturing standards, resulting in the agency sending tests that did not work properly to nearly all of the 100 state and local public health labs, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

“C.D.C. did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol,” Stephanie Caccomo, a spokeswoman for the F.D.A., said in a statement on Saturday.

—

probably crappy materials imported from China

Rule 303 said:

Woodie said:

Rule 303 said:

Holy f’n moly!

I uses Facebook Purity. You don’t get “sponsored” posts, (or a lot of other shit ether). It’s brilliant. Free and highly recommended. A sample of the shit you can remove.

Interesting. Thank you.

I assure you Mr 303. It is good. Been using it for months now. Maybe a year???

https://www.fbpurity.com/install.htm

Trump also neglected to mention that Muslims in the U.S. aren’t as selfish or ignorant as his base of white Christians, so there’s been no need to stop Muslims from gathering. They’re doing it on their own! They’re not staging some rebellion by meeting in person, and no imam is seriously encouraging them to do so. It’s a handful of Christians who insist on putting their congregations’ lives at risk, not Muslims.

Without Evidence, Trump Says Muslims Get Special Treatment During COVID Lockdown

https://twitter.com/GuthrieGF/status/1251637681811054593

Woodie said:

Trump also neglected to mention that Muslims in the U.S. aren’t as selfish or ignorant as his base of white Christians, so there’s been no need to stop Muslims from gathering. They’re doing it on their own! They’re not staging some rebellion by meeting in person, and no imam is seriously encouraging them to do so. It’s a handful of Christians who insist on putting their congregations’ lives at risk, not Muslims.

Without Evidence, Trump Says Muslims Get Special Treatment During COVID Lockdown

https://twitter.com/GuthrieGF/status/1251637681811054593

I think DJT needs some special treatment

I suppose if you can catch SARS-CoV-2 more than once they need to determine whether it can be as dangerous to one’s health the second time round.

dv said:

Woodie said:

Trump also neglected to mention that Muslims in the U.S. aren’t as selfish or ignorant as his base of white Christians, so there’s been no need to stop Muslims from gathering. They’re doing it on their own! They’re not staging some rebellion by meeting in person, and no imam is seriously encouraging them to do so. It’s a handful of Christians who insist on putting their congregations’ lives at risk, not Muslims.

Without Evidence, Trump Says Muslims Get Special Treatment During COVID Lockdown

https://twitter.com/GuthrieGF/status/1251637681811054593

I think DJT needs some special treatment

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

as in, for example,

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/kidney-dialysis-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

One doctor in New York City, who was not authorized to speak publicly, recalled anguished exchanges with other physicians last week.

Woodie said:

dv said:

Woodie said:

Trump also neglected to mention that Muslims in the U.S. aren’t as selfish or ignorant as his base of white Christians, so there’s been no need to stop Muslims from gathering. They’re doing it on their own! They’re not staging some rebellion by meeting in person, and no imam is seriously encouraging them to do so. It’s a handful of Christians who insist on putting their congregations’ lives at risk, not Muslims.

Without Evidence, Trump Says Muslims Get Special Treatment During COVID Lockdown

https://twitter.com/GuthrieGF/status/1251637681811054593

I think DJT needs some special treatment

LOLs

Super bad transmittable contagious awful virus!!

You tell ‘em Ms Poppins. :)

https://www.facebook.com/hankgreen/videos/832790830549840/

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

I am not aware there is such a directive.

SCIENCE said:

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

as in, for example,

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/kidney-dialysis-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

One doctor in New York City, who was not authorized to speak publicly, recalled anguished exchanges with other physicians last week.

When the CCP tells the…. sorry make that CDC tells them so.

dv said:

I would have to agree with that sentiment.

Witty Rejoinder said:

SCIENCE said:

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

as in, for example,

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/kidney-dialysis-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

One doctor in New York City, who was not authorized to speak publicly, recalled anguished exchanges with other physicians last week.

When the CCP tells the…. sorry make that CDC tells them so.

It remains effectively illegal for any doctor, health worker or provincial official to release “information” on an infectious diseases emergency until this data is transferred, reviewed and announced by the Ministry of Health.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/us-and-china-step-up-their-global-health-game-coronavirus/12157980

Trump is insane: And it’s time for leading Democrats to say that out loud
Rational Americans already understand that our president is mentally ill. Will Democrats ever speak truth to power?

It becomes increasingly evident, with Trump’s every social media post, public utterance and policy directive, that our president suffers from a severe form of mental illness. His insanity threatens millions of lives, and has become particularly dangerous during the most devastating public health crisis in the last 100 years.

For all the criticism that Democrats and pundits advance against Trump, their refusal to state the obvious forces the American public to feel as if we are the ones confined to a mental institution. It also emboldens Trump, even as he prioritizes his fragile ego, his compulsion to appear infallible and political expediency above the lives of countless human beings.

The most popular terms that Trump’s opponents use are “liar,” “un-American,” “egomaniac” and “malignant narcissist.” All of these labels are weak, which is why we watch as Trump peels them off like Band-Aids after a shower. Half the public probably doesn’t know what “malignant narcissist” means, while “un-American” is too vague and ideological to have any widespread resonance. “Liar” quickly collapses into the “all politicians lie” refrain, and “egomania” is borderline meaningless, considering that almost anyone who becomes famous in our consumer society — including most high-powered CEOs, Hollywood celebrities and professional athletes — obviously have massively swollen egos.

The reality that is too painful and frightening for many Americans to confront is that the wealthiest and most militarily powerful country in the world, during a pandemic, is under the leadership of someone who is certifiably nuts.

In December of 2019, 350 mental health professionals co-signed a letter to Congress stating that Donald Trump’s “deteriorating mental health” constituted a “threat to the safety of our nation.” It was merely a month later that Trump would begin to ignore multiple warnings regarding the coming COVID-19 epidemic, repeatedly announcing at rallies and on Twitter that media coverage of the virus amounted to a “hoax,” and making bizarre, unscientific statements that the potential pandemic would “go away like a miracle.”

One recent morning — again, while thousands are dying and the coronavirus ravaged numerous American cities — Trump tweeted 46 times in a few hours, mostly to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whine about “fake news” and retweet conspiracy theorists arguing for the firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

If any of our loved ones behaved in a similar manner, we would plead for psychiatric intervention. One does not have to have the expertise of a psychiatrist at the Yale University School of Medicine to make that assessment, but Dr. Bandy X. Lee, who indeed holds that title, recently told Salon that Trump’s “pathological malice,” “mental pathology,” and “bottomless need to place his own psychic survival above any protection of the public” could “destroy the nation or the world.”

Lee was the principal editor of the 2017 bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President.” She has also organized a coalition of 800 mental health professionals who are “sufficiently alarmed that they feel the need to speak up about the mental health status of the president.”
——
Democrats should also get over their concerns about angering Trump supporters. Anyone who continues to applaud Trump’s weird and reckless disregard for humanity at this point is beyond the limit of rational persuasion. Trump supporters live in a hallucinatory dreamscape under the authority of a maniac. Let them have their anti-social distancing rallies, and allow them to believe that Barack Obama invented COVID-19 shortly after he was born in Kenya.

Rational Americans need to stop enabling this abusive and deranged presidency. Declare Donald Trump insane and, at long last, bring an end to our era of malignant normality.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/trump-is-insane-and-its-time-for-leading-democrats-to-say-that-out-loud/

Woodie said:

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

I am not aware there is such a directive.

There’s no directive that healthcare people can’t talk to the media.

There’s also no directive that says their subsequent time with the organisation can’t be made as difficult and disappointing as possible for them.

captain_spalding said:

Woodie said:

SCIENCE said:

you know how in this place or that place, healthcare professionals are not allowed to speak to media without clearance or whatever,

so where the heck can they do so ¿

I am not aware there is such a directive.

There’s no directive that healthcare people can’t talk to the media.

There’s also no directive that says their subsequent time with the organisation can’t be made as difficult and disappointing as possible for them.

Nurses and Doctors Speaking Out on Safety Now Risk Their Job
Hospitals have warned, disciplined and even fired staff members who went public with workplace concerns about coronavirus precautions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/coronavirus-health-workers-speak-out.html

dv said:

captain_spalding said:

Woodie said:

I am not aware there is such a directive.

There’s no directive that healthcare people can’t talk to the media.

There’s also no directive that says their subsequent time with the organisation can’t be made as difficult and disappointing as possible for them.

Nurses and Doctors Speaking Out on Safety Now Risk Their Job
Hospitals have warned, disciplined and even fired staff members who went public with workplace concerns about coronavirus precautions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/coronavirus-health-workers-speak-out.html

does that disqualify them from JobKeeper or unfair dismissal funding
(disclaim: we’ve never worked in the USA, below the point that AU almost became their 53rd state)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/hong-kong-police-detain-veteran-democracy-activists-in-raids/12162264

wonder what would happen if some very stable genius called on these fellas to liberate Hong Kong

dv said:

Trump is insane: And it’s time for leading Democrats to say that out loud
Rational Americans already understand that our president is mentally ill. Will Democrats ever speak truth to power?

It becomes increasingly evident, with Trump’s every social media post, public utterance and policy directive, that our president suffers from a severe form of mental illness. His insanity threatens millions of lives, and has become particularly dangerous during the most devastating public health crisis in the last 100 years.

For all the criticism that Democrats and pundits advance against Trump, their refusal to state the obvious forces the American public to feel as if we are the ones confined to a mental institution. It also emboldens Trump, even as he prioritizes his fragile ego, his compulsion to appear infallible and political expediency above the lives of countless human beings.

The most popular terms that Trump’s opponents use are “liar,” “un-American,” “egomaniac” and “malignant narcissist.” All of these labels are weak, which is why we watch as Trump peels them off like Band-Aids after a shower. Half the public probably doesn’t know what “malignant narcissist” means, while “un-American” is too vague and ideological to have any widespread resonance. “Liar” quickly collapses into the “all politicians lie” refrain, and “egomania” is borderline meaningless, considering that almost anyone who becomes famous in our consumer society — including most high-powered CEOs, Hollywood celebrities and professional athletes — obviously have massively swollen egos.

The reality that is too painful and frightening for many Americans to confront is that the wealthiest and most militarily powerful country in the world, during a pandemic, is under the leadership of someone who is certifiably nuts.

In December of 2019, 350 mental health professionals co-signed a letter to Congress stating that Donald Trump’s “deteriorating mental health” constituted a “threat to the safety of our nation.” It was merely a month later that Trump would begin to ignore multiple warnings regarding the coming COVID-19 epidemic, repeatedly announcing at rallies and on Twitter that media coverage of the virus amounted to a “hoax,” and making bizarre, unscientific statements that the potential pandemic would “go away like a miracle.”

One recent morning — again, while thousands are dying and the coronavirus ravaged numerous American cities — Trump tweeted 46 times in a few hours, mostly to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whine about “fake news” and retweet conspiracy theorists arguing for the firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

If any of our loved ones behaved in a similar manner, we would plead for psychiatric intervention. One does not have to have the expertise of a psychiatrist at the Yale University School of Medicine to make that assessment, but Dr. Bandy X. Lee, who indeed holds that title, recently told Salon that Trump’s “pathological malice,” “mental pathology,” and “bottomless need to place his own psychic survival above any protection of the public” could “destroy the nation or the world.”

Lee was the principal editor of the 2017 bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President.” She has also organized a coalition of 800 mental health professionals who are “sufficiently alarmed that they feel the need to speak up about the mental health status of the president.”
——
Democrats should also get over their concerns about angering Trump supporters. Anyone who continues to applaud Trump’s weird and reckless disregard for humanity at this point is beyond the limit of rational persuasion. Trump supporters live in a hallucinatory dreamscape under the authority of a maniac. Let them have their anti-social distancing rallies, and allow them to believe that Barack Obama invented COVID-19 shortly after he was born in Kenya.

Rational Americans need to stop enabling this abusive and deranged presidency. Declare Donald Trump insane and, at long last, bring an end to our era of malignant normality.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/trump-is-insane-and-its-time-for-leading-democrats-to-say-that-out-loud/

They may make that claim but I’d argue that he’s more just pathologically stupid than insane. I once suggested that during the election debates the Dem nominee should take their gloves off and just provide constant summaries of evidence of his stupidity and you said that might not be fitting for a debate setting. I still think it would be a good policy. Make every debate not about the race for the WH but rather an examination of his failings. I reckon even sleepy Joe could keep up the barrage for an hour or two.

Everything thing that comes out of Trumps stupid mouth could be countered with something where he stated the exact opposite. I reckon about 200 preplanned rebuttals would suffice for a 2 hour debate.

In the past 7 days (ie between Apr 11 and Apr 18, Greenwhich), the US death count went from 20577 to 39014.

I mean …

the published projection is still 60000 deaths at the end of August. Another week like that and they’ll be very close to 60000 already.

Do numbers still work?

SCIENCE said:

dv said:

captain_spalding said:

There’s no directive that healthcare people can’t talk to the media.

There’s also no directive that says their subsequent time with the organisation can’t be made as difficult and disappointing as possible for them.

Nurses and Doctors Speaking Out on Safety Now Risk Their Job
Hospitals have warned, disciplined and even fired staff members who went public with workplace concerns about coronavirus precautions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/coronavirus-health-workers-speak-out.html

does that disqualify them from JobKeeper or unfair dismissal funding
(disclaim: we’ve never worked in the USA, below the point that AU almost became their 53rd state)

53rd?

sibeen said:

SCIENCE said:

dv said:

Nurses and Doctors Speaking Out on Safety Now Risk Their Job
Hospitals have warned, disciplined and even fired staff members who went public with workplace concerns about coronavirus precautions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/coronavirus-health-workers-speak-out.html

does that disqualify them from JobKeeper or unfair dismissal funding
(disclaim: we’ve never worked in the USA, below the point that AU almost became their 53rd state)

53rd?

I guess he is already counting Panama and the Philippines?

dv said:

Trump is insane: And it’s time for leading Democrats to say that out loud
Rational Americans already understand that our president is mentally ill. Will Democrats ever speak truth to power?

It becomes increasingly evident, with Trump’s every social media post, public utterance and policy directive, that our president suffers from a severe form of mental illness. His insanity threatens millions of lives, and has become particularly dangerous during the most devastating public health crisis in the last 100 years.

For all the criticism that Democrats and pundits advance against Trump, their refusal to state the obvious forces the American public to feel as if we are the ones confined to a mental institution. It also emboldens Trump, even as he prioritizes his fragile ego, his compulsion to appear infallible and political expediency above the lives of countless human beings.

The most popular terms that Trump’s opponents use are “liar,” “un-American,” “egomaniac” and “malignant narcissist.” All of these labels are weak, which is why we watch as Trump peels them off like Band-Aids after a shower. Half the public probably doesn’t know what “malignant narcissist” means, while “un-American” is too vague and ideological to have any widespread resonance. “Liar” quickly collapses into the “all politicians lie” refrain, and “egomania” is borderline meaningless, considering that almost anyone who becomes famous in our consumer society — including most high-powered CEOs, Hollywood celebrities and professional athletes — obviously have massively swollen egos.

The reality that is too painful and frightening for many Americans to confront is that the wealthiest and most militarily powerful country in the world, during a pandemic, is under the leadership of someone who is certifiably nuts.

In December of 2019, 350 mental health professionals co-signed a letter to Congress stating that Donald Trump’s “deteriorating mental health” constituted a “threat to the safety of our nation.” It was merely a month later that Trump would begin to ignore multiple warnings regarding the coming COVID-19 epidemic, repeatedly announcing at rallies and on Twitter that media coverage of the virus amounted to a “hoax,” and making bizarre, unscientific statements that the potential pandemic would “go away like a miracle.”

One recent morning — again, while thousands are dying and the coronavirus ravaged numerous American cities — Trump tweeted 46 times in a few hours, mostly to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whine about “fake news” and retweet conspiracy theorists arguing for the firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

If any of our loved ones behaved in a similar manner, we would plead for psychiatric intervention. One does not have to have the expertise of a psychiatrist at the Yale University School of Medicine to make that assessment, but Dr. Bandy X. Lee, who indeed holds that title, recently told Salon that Trump’s “pathological malice,” “mental pathology,” and “bottomless need to place his own psychic survival above any protection of the public” could “destroy the nation or the world.”

Lee was the principal editor of the 2017 bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President.” She has also organized a coalition of 800 mental health professionals who are “sufficiently alarmed that they feel the need to speak up about the mental health status of the president.”
——
Democrats should also get over their concerns about angering Trump supporters. Anyone who continues to applaud Trump’s weird and reckless disregard for humanity at this point is beyond the limit of rational persuasion. Trump supporters live in a hallucinatory dreamscape under the authority of a maniac. Let them have their anti-social distancing rallies, and allow them to believe that Barack Obama invented COVID-19 shortly after he was born in Kenya.

Rational Americans need to stop enabling this abusive and deranged presidency. Declare Donald Trump insane and, at long last, bring an end to our era of malignant normality.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/trump-is-insane-and-its-time-for-leading-democrats-to-say-that-out-loud/

Yeah he’s 5 stubbies short of a six pack.
However the Media and the Dems have been dealt some great hands but have played them badly.
He’s still there, twittering away on his Blackberry, appointing a WWF wrestler to rebuild America, not to mention his child like son-in-law to fix the middle east
But there he is still living the dream and loving it..
I think the media have taken the people up too many dry gullies

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

Trump is insane: And it’s time for leading Democrats to say that out loud
Rational Americans already understand that our president is mentally ill. Will Democrats ever speak truth to power?

It becomes increasingly evident, with Trump’s every social media post, public utterance and policy directive, that our president suffers from a severe form of mental illness. His insanity threatens millions of lives, and has become particularly dangerous during the most devastating public health crisis in the last 100 years.

For all the criticism that Democrats and pundits advance against Trump, their refusal to state the obvious forces the American public to feel as if we are the ones confined to a mental institution. It also emboldens Trump, even as he prioritizes his fragile ego, his compulsion to appear infallible and political expediency above the lives of countless human beings.

The most popular terms that Trump’s opponents use are “liar,” “un-American,” “egomaniac” and “malignant narcissist.” All of these labels are weak, which is why we watch as Trump peels them off like Band-Aids after a shower. Half the public probably doesn’t know what “malignant narcissist” means, while “un-American” is too vague and ideological to have any widespread resonance. “Liar” quickly collapses into the “all politicians lie” refrain, and “egomania” is borderline meaningless, considering that almost anyone who becomes famous in our consumer society — including most high-powered CEOs, Hollywood celebrities and professional athletes — obviously have massively swollen egos.

The reality that is too painful and frightening for many Americans to confront is that the wealthiest and most militarily powerful country in the world, during a pandemic, is under the leadership of someone who is certifiably nuts.

In December of 2019, 350 mental health professionals co-signed a letter to Congress stating that Donald Trump’s “deteriorating mental health” constituted a “threat to the safety of our nation.” It was merely a month later that Trump would begin to ignore multiple warnings regarding the coming COVID-19 epidemic, repeatedly announcing at rallies and on Twitter that media coverage of the virus amounted to a “hoax,” and making bizarre, unscientific statements that the potential pandemic would “go away like a miracle.”

One recent morning — again, while thousands are dying and the coronavirus ravaged numerous American cities — Trump tweeted 46 times in a few hours, mostly to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whine about “fake news” and retweet conspiracy theorists arguing for the firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

If any of our loved ones behaved in a similar manner, we would plead for psychiatric intervention. One does not have to have the expertise of a psychiatrist at the Yale University School of Medicine to make that assessment, but Dr. Bandy X. Lee, who indeed holds that title, recently told Salon that Trump’s “pathological malice,” “mental pathology,” and “bottomless need to place his own psychic survival above any protection of the public” could “destroy the nation or the world.”

Lee was the principal editor of the 2017 bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President.” She has also organized a coalition of 800 mental health professionals who are “sufficiently alarmed that they feel the need to speak up about the mental health status of the president.”
——
Democrats should also get over their concerns about angering Trump supporters. Anyone who continues to applaud Trump’s weird and reckless disregard for humanity at this point is beyond the limit of rational persuasion. Trump supporters live in a hallucinatory dreamscape under the authority of a maniac. Let them have their anti-social distancing rallies, and allow them to believe that Barack Obama invented COVID-19 shortly after he was born in Kenya.

Rational Americans need to stop enabling this abusive and deranged presidency. Declare Donald Trump insane and, at long last, bring an end to our era of malignant normality.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/trump-is-insane-and-its-time-for-leading-democrats-to-say-that-out-loud/

Yeah he’s 5 stubbies short of a six pack.
However the Media and the Dems have been dealt some great hands but have played them badly.
He’s still there, twittering away on his Blackberry, appointing a WWF wrestler to rebuild America, not to mention his child like son-in-law to fix the middle east
But there he is still living the dream and loving it..
I think the media have taken the people up too many dry gullies

The media haven’t taken anyone up any dry gullies with regard to DJT. There are multiple problems, he’s made many transgressions and had many failures, and they’ve covered them fairly and well. He remains unpopular, and in the absence of a Republican party that cares about, well, anything, there’s not much that can be done but wait til the election.

dv said:

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

Trump is insane: And it’s time for leading Democrats to say that out loud
Rational Americans already understand that our president is mentally ill. Will Democrats ever speak truth to power?

It becomes increasingly evident, with Trump’s every social media post, public utterance and policy directive, that our president suffers from a severe form of mental illness. His insanity threatens millions of lives, and has become particularly dangerous during the most devastating public health crisis in the last 100 years.

For all the criticism that Democrats and pundits advance against Trump, their refusal to state the obvious forces the American public to feel as if we are the ones confined to a mental institution. It also emboldens Trump, even as he prioritizes his fragile ego, his compulsion to appear infallible and political expediency above the lives of countless human beings.

The most popular terms that Trump’s opponents use are “liar,” “un-American,” “egomaniac” and “malignant narcissist.” All of these labels are weak, which is why we watch as Trump peels them off like Band-Aids after a shower. Half the public probably doesn’t know what “malignant narcissist” means, while “un-American” is too vague and ideological to have any widespread resonance. “Liar” quickly collapses into the “all politicians lie” refrain, and “egomania” is borderline meaningless, considering that almost anyone who becomes famous in our consumer society — including most high-powered CEOs, Hollywood celebrities and professional athletes — obviously have massively swollen egos.

The reality that is too painful and frightening for many Americans to confront is that the wealthiest and most militarily powerful country in the world, during a pandemic, is under the leadership of someone who is certifiably nuts.

In December of 2019, 350 mental health professionals co-signed a letter to Congress stating that Donald Trump’s “deteriorating mental health” constituted a “threat to the safety of our nation.” It was merely a month later that Trump would begin to ignore multiple warnings regarding the coming COVID-19 epidemic, repeatedly announcing at rallies and on Twitter that media coverage of the virus amounted to a “hoax,” and making bizarre, unscientific statements that the potential pandemic would “go away like a miracle.”

One recent morning — again, while thousands are dying and the coronavirus ravaged numerous American cities — Trump tweeted 46 times in a few hours, mostly to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whine about “fake news” and retweet conspiracy theorists arguing for the firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

If any of our loved ones behaved in a similar manner, we would plead for psychiatric intervention. One does not have to have the expertise of a psychiatrist at the Yale University School of Medicine to make that assessment, but Dr. Bandy X. Lee, who indeed holds that title, recently told Salon that Trump’s “pathological malice,” “mental pathology,” and “bottomless need to place his own psychic survival above any protection of the public” could “destroy the nation or the world.”

Lee was the principal editor of the 2017 bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President.” She has also organized a coalition of 800 mental health professionals who are “sufficiently alarmed that they feel the need to speak up about the mental health status of the president.”
——
Democrats should also get over their concerns about angering Trump supporters. Anyone who continues to applaud Trump’s weird and reckless disregard for humanity at this point is beyond the limit of rational persuasion. Trump supporters live in a hallucinatory dreamscape under the authority of a maniac. Let them have their anti-social distancing rallies, and allow them to believe that Barack Obama invented COVID-19 shortly after he was born in Kenya.

Rational Americans need to stop enabling this abusive and deranged presidency. Declare Donald Trump insane and, at long last, bring an end to our era of malignant normality.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/trump-is-insane-and-its-time-for-leading-democrats-to-say-that-out-loud/

Yeah he’s 5 stubbies short of a six pack.
However the Media and the Dems have been dealt some great hands but have played them badly.
He’s still there, twittering away on his Blackberry, appointing a WWF wrestler to rebuild America, not to mention his child like son-in-law to fix the middle east
But there he is still living the dream and loving it..
I think the media have taken the people up too many dry gullies

The media haven’t taken anyone up any dry gullies with regard to DJT. There are multiple problems, he’s made many transgressions and had many failures, and they’ve covered them fairly and well. He remains unpopular, and in the absence of a Republican party that cares about, well, anything, there’s not much that can be done but wait til the election.

And that’s not even including the fact that the most watched media organisation in the US has been on his side the entire time. If the media is to blame then it’s Fox News that is the perpetrator.

Do we know about this site? I’ve just started cruising around in there.

https://www.healthnewsreview.org/

Barring tiny nations, Belgium now has the highest death/pop in the world now.

Witty Rejoinder said:

dv said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Yeah he’s 5 stubbies short of a six pack.
However the Media and the Dems have been dealt some great hands but have played them badly.
He’s still there, twittering away on his Blackberry, appointing a WWF wrestler to rebuild America, not to mention his child like son-in-law to fix the middle east
But there he is still living the dream and loving it..
I think the media have taken the people up too many dry gullies

The media haven’t taken anyone up any dry gullies with regard to DJT. There are multiple problems, he’s made many transgressions and had many failures, and they’ve covered them fairly and well. He remains unpopular, and in the absence of a Republican party that cares about, well, anything, there’s not much that can be done but wait til the election.

And that’s not even including the fact that the most watched media organisation in the US has been on his side the entire time. If the media is to blame then it’s Fox News that is the perpetrator.

The most watched? Cable station yes, but most watched I’d very much doubt.

sibeen said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

dv said:

The media haven’t taken anyone up any dry gullies with regard to DJT. There are multiple problems, he’s made many transgressions and had many failures, and they’ve covered them fairly and well. He remains unpopular, and in the absence of a Republican party that cares about, well, anything, there’s not much that can be done but wait til the election.

And that’s not even including the fact that the most watched media organisation in the US has been on his side the entire time. If the media is to blame then it’s Fox News that is the perpetrator.

The most watched? Cable station yes, but most watched I’d very much doubt.

Fox seems to be too left wing for Trump now and he’s cracked the shits about it, sometimes promoting the … irredeemably insane … OAN.

sibeen said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

dv said:

The media haven’t taken anyone up any dry gullies with regard to DJT. There are multiple problems, he’s made many transgressions and had many failures, and they’ve covered them fairly and well. He remains unpopular, and in the absence of a Republican party that cares about, well, anything, there’s not much that can be done but wait til the election.

And that’s not even including the fact that the most watched media organisation in the US has been on his side the entire time. If the media is to blame then it’s Fox News that is the perpetrator.

The most watched? Cable station yes, but most watched I’d very much doubt.

73% of Americans have cable compared to 25% of Australians having Foxtel. I think US cable penetration is a good proxy for viewing numbers considering that local news would be the other dominant source of news and not the flagship network national news broadcast from New York.

Greece is doing well:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/meet-the-sydney-born-virologist-who-became-greece-s-coronavirus-hero-20200414-p54jsx.html

“No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection with oxygen requirement: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial”

Trump’s magic bullet may have disappeared.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1

Michael V said:

“No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection with oxygen requirement: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial”

Trump’s magic bullet may have disappeared.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1

Don’t tell him. Let him kill himself drinking gallons of the stuff.

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

“No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection with oxygen requirement: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial”

Trump’s magic bullet may have disappeared.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1

Don’t tell him. Let him kill himself drinking gallons of the stuff.

LOLs.

I wish.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

“No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection with oxygen requirement: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial”

Trump’s magic bullet may have disappeared.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1

Don’t tell him. Let him kill himself drinking gallons of the stuff.

LOLs.

I wish.

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

There has been some suggestion from Russian medical groups that a lot of cases in which Covid-19 is the root cause are being written up as pneumonia.

Some health care providers have questioned whether Russia truly kept the novel coronavirus at bay. Anastasia Vasilyeva, head of Russia’s Alliance of Doctors trade union, has pointed out that pneumonia cases in Moscow spiked in January—they were 37% higher than in January 2019, according to Rosstat, Russia’s statistics agency

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-coronavirus-finally-slamming-russia-country-ready

Really though, the main news is that the virus has only started taking off in Russia. Deaths are growing rapidly, quadrupling every week. It’s important to look at trends.

dv said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

There has been some suggestion from Russian medical groups that a lot of cases in which Covid-19 is the root cause are being written up as pneumonia.

Some health care providers have questioned whether Russia truly kept the novel coronavirus at bay. Anastasia Vasilyeva, head of Russia’s Alliance of Doctors trade union, has pointed out that pneumonia cases in Moscow spiked in January—they were 37% higher than in January 2019, according to Rosstat, Russia’s statistics agency

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-coronavirus-finally-slamming-russia-country-ready

Really though, the main news is that the virus has only started taking off in Russia. Deaths are growing rapidly, quadrupling every week. It’s important to look at trends.

Well it is a pneumonia if it gets into the lungs

“Pneumonia is an infection in one or both lungs. Bacteria, viruses, and fungi cause it. The infection causes inflammation in the air sacs in your lungs, which are called alveoli. The alveoli fill with fluid or pus, making it difficult to breathe. “

https://www.healthline.com/health/pneumonia

It’s the attribution under dispute. Perhaps they have some sort of bacteria that takes advantage of compromised lungs. So they attribute to that rather than the virus. Do we know that everyone is using the same definitions? The presence of the new virus in the lungs would have to be proven to be absolutely sure. Testing positive on a throat swab doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t have a separate lung infection with something else because you are compromised. Medicine is not pure black and white. It must be very difficult.

One of the things we were taught very early in our training was that you don’t stop looking when you first find a possible cause for the patient’s symptoms/signs. You make sure you find as many of the things that are going wrong as are going wrong.

Although, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…..

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Why are they behind?

buffy said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Why are they behind?

Slow?

Tau.Neutrino said:

buffy said:

party_pants said:

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Why are they behind?

Slow?

What? Why are they at the beginning when everyone else has been playing for a couple of months or more?

buffy said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Why are they behind?

Dunno why, they just are. But growing exponentially now. 4,700 cases yesterday (for this graph), they are already over 6,000 new cases today.

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Reports are that there are many cases of Chinese nationals returning from Russia’s eastern provinces with coronavirus. Don’t now how that reflects infection rates in European Russia but it can’t all be linked to the close proximity to the original epicentre in China I imagine.

Witty Rejoinder said:

party_pants said:

Woodie said:

I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Or are they fibbing too?

Their number of cases have only just taken off in the last couple of days.I expect that not many of them have died yet to lift the fatalities number. Check it in about a week or two from now as those cases filter through to resolution (death or recovery).

Reports are that there are many cases of Chinese nationals returning from Russia’s eastern provinces with coronavirus. Don’t now how that reflects infection rates in European Russia but it can’t all be linked to the close proximity to the original epicentre in China I imagine.

Oh, I expect there are pockets all over the world where it is quietly rampant without the authorities having accurate figures on it.

> I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Sigh.

No they’re not fibbing. (UK and Brazil are two of the worst three offenders for fibs).

The numbers are low because it’s early days in Russia, they only picked up the epidemic long after most other countries.

It’s such early days in Russia that I have no idea what the peak will be, it could end up being as bad there as the USA, or as mild as in Germany.,

mollwollfumble said:

> I mean, take a look at Russia. They must be a healthy lot. Look at the deaths and serious.

Sigh.

No they’re not fibbing. (UK and Brazil are two of the worst three offenders for fibs).

There you go spouting your opinion as facts again.

So I found out why Dumbold Cunt is linking the 2nd amendment to the Covid-19 restrictions: the connection is that gun and ammo shops are closed.

dv said:

So I found out why Dumbold Cunt is linking the 2nd amendment to the Covid-19 restrictions: the connection is that gun and ammo shops are closed.

Seems such an unimportant and minor inconvenience.

Another bad day for Russia and for the UK today. They really are not in the containment phase yet.

party_pants said:

Another bad day for Russia and for the UK today. They really are not in the containment phase yet.

don’t forget Singapore, poor pour Singapore

Police arrest smoker breaking quarantine

Police have arrested and charged a 57-year-old woman with repeated breaches of Covid-19 quarantine requirements.

They were called to Hobart’s Wrest Point Casino twice this weekend after the woman repeatedly tried to leave her room to smoke.

It is alleged she was abusive to staff.

She was charged, then released on bail and returned to her room.
—-

:(

*needs cigarette.

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

Another bad day for Russia and for the UK today. They really are not in the containment phase yet.

don’t forget Singapore, poor pour Singapore

Oh fuck, I did forget!

They’ve had a bit of a breakout too.

dv said:

So I found out why Dumbold Cunt is linking the 2nd amendment to the Covid-19 restrictions: the connection is that gun and ammo shops are closed.

Did their gun massacre numbers fall during this period?

roughbarked said:

dv said:

So I found out why Dumbold Cunt is linking the 2nd amendment to the Covid-19 restrictions: the connection is that gun and ammo shops are closed.

Did their gun massacre numbers fall during this period?

I read somewhere the other day that it was the first month in 18 years that there hadn’t been a school shooting.

Neophyte said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

So I found out why Dumbold Cunt is linking the 2nd amendment to the Covid-19 restrictions: the connection is that gun and ammo shops are closed.

Did their gun massacre numbers fall during this period?

I read somewhere the other day that it was the first month in 18 years that there hadn’t been a school shooting.

So why didn’t the Tonald Drump spot that and point it out to those who’d rather die than lose their liberty? Well we all know why. He’s thicker than two planks.

roughbarked said:

Neophyte said:

roughbarked said:

Did their gun massacre numbers fall during this period?

I read somewhere the other day that it was the first month in 18 years that there hadn’t been a school shooting.

So why didn’t the Tonald Drump spot that and point it out to those who’d rather die than lose their liberty? Well we all know why. He’s thicker than two planks.

Maybe somebody on the anti-gun lobbly should be jumping up and down and cheering loudly. So that those who aren’t as thick as Trump cunt can see it.

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Sounds like fun.

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Nice one.

:)

monkey skipper said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

mollwollfumble said:

monkey skipper said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

I understand your reaction it is means something to part of the solution huh?

mollwollfumble said:

monkey skipper said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

I understand your reaction it is means something to part of the solution huh?

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

“Comparative dynamic aerosol efficiencies of three emergent coronaviruses and the unusual persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol suspensions”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063784v1

Spiny Norman said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

I feel the same.
When walking on Cairns boardwalk I stat on the upwind side when passing other walkers.

A clever lass on the Isolation Bin Outing group suggest we call this decade the GlenTwenties.

mollwollfumble said:

monkey skipper said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

How much actual testing for flu has been done in the past? I suspect we don’t have a good idea of how much flu is around each season as only those who manage to get to the doctor – and not all of them – would have lab testing done. Is it a reportable disease or a discretionary one?

dv said:

A clever lass on the Isolation Bin Outing group suggest we call this decade the GlenTwenties.

Nice work!

:)

Michael V said:

dv said:

A clever lass on the Isolation Bin Outing group suggest we call this decade the GlenTwenties.

Nice work!

:)

Bugger
.
.
.
.
IDGI

Michael V said:

dv said:

A clever lass on the Isolation Bin Outing group suggest we call this decade the GlenTwenties.

Nice work!

:)

The noughties were more fun though.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Michael V said:

dv said:

A clever lass on the Isolation Bin Outing group suggest we call this decade the GlenTwenties.

Nice work!

:)

Bugger
.
.
.
.
IDGI

Glen Twenty is an antiseptic spray.

Bubblecar said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Michael V said:

Nice work!

:)

Bugger
.
.
.
.
IDGI

Glen Twenty is an antiseptic spray.

Thanks.

Never ‘eard of it.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Bubblecar said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Bugger
.
.
.
.
IDGI

Glen Twenty is an antiseptic spray.

Thanks.

Never ‘eard of it.

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

He’s a tennis player not a medico. His opinion counts for nothing.

https://braveneweurope.com/bloomberg-denmark-companies-that-are-registered-in-tax-havens-wont-be-eligible-for-bailout

Denmark: Companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout

dv said:

https://braveneweurope.com/bloomberg-denmark-companies-that-are-registered-in-tax-havens-wont-be-eligible-for-bailout

Denmark: Companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout

snigger

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

Ah well. He doesn’t vaccinate – he doesn’t get to play. Problem belong him.

dv said:

https://braveneweurope.com/bloomberg-denmark-companies-that-are-registered-in-tax-havens-wont-be-eligible-for-bailout

Denmark: Companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout

Good one.

:)

Michael V said:

dv said:

https://braveneweurope.com/bloomberg-denmark-companies-that-are-registered-in-tax-havens-wont-be-eligible-for-bailout

Denmark: Companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout

Good one.

:)

Exactly. Go ask Lichtenstein for a handout.

dv said:

scratches head

Michael V said:

dv said:

scratches head

Liberty or Tyranny

Michael V said:

dv said:

scratches head

liberty or tyranny.

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

dv said:

https://braveneweurope.com/bloomberg-denmark-companies-that-are-registered-in-tax-havens-wont-be-eligible-for-bailout

Denmark: Companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout

Good one.

:)

Exactly. Go ask Lichtenstein for a handout.

Like the cruise ships sailing under flags of convenience.

dv said:

Michael V said:

dv said:

scratches head

Liberty or Tyranny

Ah. Tyranny. Ta.

dv said:

Michael V said:

dv said:

scratches head

Liberty or Tyranny

OIC

No new cases in Qld.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-queensland-no-new-cases-overnight/12163932

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

Good one.

:)

Exactly. Go ask Lichtenstein for a handout.

Like the cruise ships sailing under flags of convenience.

Them too.

Tamb said:

dv said:

Michael V said:

scratches head

Liberty or Tyranny

OIC

I got that one

(but only because I read it as tyranny first time)

captain_spalding said:

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

Exactly. Go ask Lichtenstein for a handout.

Like the cruise ships sailing under flags of convenience.

Them too.

Someone said that in the last week they had only been in contact with one person for more than 15 minutes at less than 1.5 metres and they didn’t need a app to know who it was.

The Government has said it will need at least 40 per cent of the population to download the app for it to be effective.

Mr Robert said when people downloaded the app they would be required to enter:

Their name
Their age range
Their postcode
Their phone number
He said when people were within 1.5 metres for 15 minutes, the app via Bluetooth, would record the other person’s name and phone number.

“It would stay securely encrypted on your phone,” Mr Robert said.

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

Mr Robert repeatedly said Commonwealth agencies and law enforcement would be unable to access the information.

He said the app would allow health authorities to trace who people had been in contact with quicker than manual contact tracing based on a person’s memory.

“It’s about speed and, of course, manually you might forget where you were,” Mr Robert said.

“Your memory might not be as good as you thought it was and you might not know the details of the person next to you.”

yeah, but if you have a confirmed case you can already find out where they have been via their phone… I mean you don’t need an ap for that.

Arts said:

The Government has said it will need at least 40 per cent of the population to download the app for it to be effective.

Mr Robert said when people downloaded the app they would be required to enter:

Their name
Their age range
Their postcode
Their phone number
He said when people were within 1.5 metres for 15 minutes, the app via Bluetooth, would record the other person’s name and phone number.

“It would stay securely encrypted on your phone,” Mr Robert said.

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

Mr Robert repeatedly said Commonwealth agencies and law enforcement would be unable to access the information.

He said the app would allow health authorities to trace who people had been in contact with quicker than manual contact tracing based on a person’s memory.

“It’s about speed and, of course, manually you might forget where you were,” Mr Robert said.

“Your memory might not be as good as you thought it was and you might not know the details of the person next to you.”

yeah, but if you have a confirmed case you can already find out where they have been via their phone… I mean you don’t need an ap for that.

I wonder how many actual transmissions occurred after more than 15 minutes within 1.5 metres, with a person who was not a regular close contact.

Less than 5% would be my guess.

Arts said:

The Government has said it will need at least 40 per cent of the population to download the app for it to be effective.

Mr Robert said when people downloaded the app they would be required to enter:

Their name
Their age range
Their postcode
Their phone number
He said when people were within 1.5 metres for 15 minutes, the app via Bluetooth, would record the other person’s name and phone number.

“It would stay securely encrypted on your phone,” Mr Robert said.

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

Mr Robert repeatedly said Commonwealth agencies and law enforcement would be unable to access the information.

He said the app would allow health authorities to trace who people had been in contact with quicker than manual contact tracing based on a person’s memory.

“It’s about speed and, of course, manually you might forget where you were,” Mr Robert said.

“Your memory might not be as good as you thought it was and you might not know the details of the person next to you.”

yeah, but if you have a confirmed case you can already find out where they have been via their phone… I mean you don’t need an ap for that.

Shh…you’ll give the game away.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Arts said:

The Government has said it will need at least 40 per cent of the population to download the app for it to be effective.

Mr Robert said when people downloaded the app they would be required to enter:

Their name
Their age range
Their postcode
Their phone number
He said when people were within 1.5 metres for 15 minutes, the app via Bluetooth, would record the other person’s name and phone number.

“It would stay securely encrypted on your phone,” Mr Robert said.

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

Mr Robert repeatedly said Commonwealth agencies and law enforcement would be unable to access the information.

He said the app would allow health authorities to trace who people had been in contact with quicker than manual contact tracing based on a person’s memory.

“It’s about speed and, of course, manually you might forget where you were,” Mr Robert said.

“Your memory might not be as good as you thought it was and you might not know the details of the person next to you.”

yeah, but if you have a confirmed case you can already find out where they have been via their phone… I mean you don’t need an ap for that.

I wonder how many actual transmissions occurred after more than 15 minutes within 1.5 metres, with a person who was not a regular close contact.

Less than 5% would be my guess.

maybe all those half hour hairdressers.

Arts said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Arts said:

The Government has said it will need at least 40 per cent of the population to download the app for it to be effective.

Mr Robert said when people downloaded the app they would be required to enter:

Their name
Their age range
Their postcode
Their phone number
He said when people were within 1.5 metres for 15 minutes, the app via Bluetooth, would record the other person’s name and phone number.

“It would stay securely encrypted on your phone,” Mr Robert said.

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

Mr Robert repeatedly said Commonwealth agencies and law enforcement would be unable to access the information.

He said the app would allow health authorities to trace who people had been in contact with quicker than manual contact tracing based on a person’s memory.

“It’s about speed and, of course, manually you might forget where you were,” Mr Robert said.

“Your memory might not be as good as you thought it was and you might not know the details of the person next to you.”

yeah, but if you have a confirmed case you can already find out where they have been via their phone… I mean you don’t need an ap for that.

I wonder how many actual transmissions occurred after more than 15 minutes within 1.5 metres, with a person who was not a regular close contact.

Less than 5% would be my guess.

maybe all those half hour hairdressers.

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

I wonder how many actual transmissions occurred after more than 15 minutes within 1.5 metres, with a person who was not a regular close contact.

Less than 5% would be my guess.

maybe all those half hour hairdressers.

There is that I suppose.

At least we men are safe :)

The app may come in handy for other purposes.
Lets say there have been a lot of suspicious conflagrations in a smallish country town.
And lets say the authorities have a suspect, for the sake of this hypothetical lets call him Mr B.
With this app they may be able to place Mr B within 1.5m of the primary ignition position at the given time.

Peak Warming Man said:

The app may come in handy for other purposes.
Lets say there have been a lot of suspicious conflagrations in a smallish country town.
And lets say the authorities have a suspect, for the sake of this hypothetical lets call him Mr B.
With this app they may be able to place Mr B within 1.5m of the primary ignition position at the given time.

As long as he’s stupid enough to take his phone with him when he commits his crimes.

You have one phone with the app which says ‘where you are’ (nudge, nudge, wink).

And another you take with you.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

buffy said:

Like the cruise ships sailing under flags of convenience.

Them too.

Someone said that in the last week they had only been in contact with one person for more than 15 minutes at less than 1.5 metres and they didn’t need a app to know who it was.

Back from chemo.
The only people I am in contact under 1.5m are the fully gowned, gloved & masked nurses who stick needles in me.

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Well, yes, it is.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

Default state for pollies: Lie.

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

For tracking the spread of the virus it isn’t really necessary. It is more case of who has been in close contact with whom.

captain_spalding said:

Peak Warming Man said:

The app may come in handy for other purposes.
Lets say there have been a lot of suspicious conflagrations in a smallish country town.
And lets say the authorities have a suspect, for the sake of this hypothetical lets call him Mr B.
With this app they may be able to place Mr B within 1.5m of the primary ignition position at the given time.

As long as he’s stupid enough to take his phone with him when he commits his crimes.

You have one phone with the app which says ‘where you are’ (nudge, nudge, wink).

And another you take with you.

Arsonists aren’t generally all that smart.

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Tamb said:

captain_spalding said:

Peak Warming Man said:

The app may come in handy for other purposes.
Lets say there have been a lot of suspicious conflagrations in a smallish country town.
And lets say the authorities have a suspect, for the sake of this hypothetical lets call him Mr B.
With this app they may be able to place Mr B within 1.5m of the primary ignition position at the given time.

As long as he’s stupid enough to take his phone with him when he commits his crimes.

You have one phone with the app which says ‘where you are’ (nudge, nudge, wink).

And another you take with you.

Arsonists aren’t generally all that smart.

Some are. Ask the Arson Squad.

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

party_pants said:

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

For tracking the spread of the virus it isn’t really necessary. It is more case of who has been in close contact with whom.

I’m glad someone else is up to speed.

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

No, that’s what Barnaby dumb ABC journalists thought too.
When two phones that have the app come into contact at less than 1.5 metres for more than 15 minutes using Bluetooth not GPS the phones then exchange numbers and log the time, there is no location needed, no GPS involved.
Then if one of the owners of the phone becomes a convn19 infectious person they can check her/his phone to see what hits the app has and then contact those people, saves a shed load of grunt work by the trackers.
Someone tried to explain this to Barnaby and he started going off about curtains……………

Peak Warming Man said:

The app may come in handy for other purposes.
Lets say there have been a lot of suspicious conflagrations in a smallish country town.
And lets say the authorities have a suspect, for the sake of this hypothetical lets call him Mr B.
With this app they may be able to place Mr B within 1.5m of the primary ignition position at the given time.

but. ‘they’ are saying that the ap won’t be used by the police or government.

ChrispenEvan said:

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

A laudable purpose.

Although it’s difficult to believe that our government didn’t ask during the development of such an app for a few extra features which they earnestly hoped they would never have to use.

Peak Warming Man said:

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

No, that’s what Barnaby dumb ABC journalists thought too.
When two phones that have the app come into contact at less than 1.5 metres for more than 15 minutes using Bluetooth not GPS the phones then exchange numbers and log the time, there is no location needed, no GPS involved.
Then if one of the owners of the phone becomes a convn19 infectious person they can check her/his phone to see what hits the app has and then contact those people, saves a shed load of grunt work by the trackers.
Someone tried to explain this to Barnaby and he started going off about curtains……………

and another one up to speed.

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

A laudable purpose.

Although it’s difficult to believe that our government didn’t ask during the development of such an app for a few extra features which they earnestly hoped they would never have to use.

It’s fucking bluetooth, limited range and it doesn’t talk to towers.

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

captain_spalding said:

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

ChrispenEvan said:

party_pants said:

buffy said:

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

For tracking the spread of the virus it isn’t really necessary. It is more case of who has been in close contact with whom.

I’m glad someone else is up to speed.

this is not the way to incite anarchy.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

yep, because it is bluetooth and it is short range and doesn’t talk to towers.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

party_pants said:

For tracking the spread of the virus it isn’t really necessary. It is more case of who has been in close contact with whom.

I’m glad someone else is up to speed.

this is not the way to incite anarchy.

I like logical anarchy.

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

only the tinfoil hat brigade turn it off.

Peak Warming Man said:

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Community privacy concerns have forced the Federal Government to insist a coronavirus tracing app will neither track people’s locations nor be available for law enforcement agencies to access’

(until it seems like a good idea, or the police ask for the capability, and there’s some big kerfuffle going on as a distraction and it can be quietly guided through Parliament.)

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

No, that’s what Barnaby dumb ABC journalists thought too.
When two phones that have the app come into contact at less than 1.5 metres for more than 15 minutes using Bluetooth not GPS the phones then exchange numbers and log the time, there is no location needed, no GPS involved.
Then if one of the owners of the phone becomes a convn19 infectious person they can check her/his phone to see what hits the app has and then contact those people, saves a shed load of grunt work by the trackers.
Someone tried to explain this to Barnaby and he started going off about curtains……………

He’s confused with daylight saving fading the curtains.

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

yep, because it is bluetooth and it is short range and doesn’t talk to towers.

I get that, but I’ll remain sceptical.

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

There are probably at least ……twelve people out there who have it switched on without knowing it.

Barnaby doesn’t understand anything that doesn’t make a noise, has no moving parts and cant be fixed by bashing.

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

But isn’t tracking location sort of the point?

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

Provided the code gets independently checked and verified to do what they say and no more, I’ll be more than happy to use it. As it stands, there is little chance of real privacy breaches. They say they’ll release the code as open-source software. This would be a good thing.

I’d have more concern about it only being available at the Google and Apple stores, where you have to register your email address to get the software. I’d prefer to get it directly from our government.

Peak Warming Man said:

Barnaby doesn’t understand anything that doesn’t make a noise, has no moving parts and cant be fixed by bashing.

Like Jeremy Clarkson.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

yep, because it is bluetooth and it is short range and doesn’t talk to towers.

I get that, but I’ll remain sceptical.

Look up how accurate triangulation is. If it accessed your GPS data in your phone it would be far more accurate. but tower triangulation is pretty broad

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

only the tinfoil hat brigade turn it off.

Nonsense.

If you were wearing a tinfoil hat you wouldn’t need to turn it off.

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

only the tinfoil hat brigade turn it off.

I don’t use the internet on my phone.

Peak Warming Man said:

Barnaby doesn’t understand anything that doesn’t make a noise, has no moving parts and cant be fixed by bashing.

:)

I mean the bluetoothing is great until someone is testing positive then

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

I mean it’s great in principle, assuming all actors use the data for the purpose.. but…

Michael V said:

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

it doesn’t track your location as far as i know, just who you have been near for 15 minutes.

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

Provided the code gets independently checked and verified to do what they say and no more, I’ll be more than happy to use it. As it stands, there is little chance of real privacy breaches. They say they’ll release the code as open-source software. This would be a good thing.

I’d have more concern about it only being available at the Google and Apple stores, where you have to register your email address to get the software. I’d prefer to get it directly from our government.

the code is going to be open source.

“Government services minister Stuart Robert said the app was going through a privacy impact assessment with the help of the Australian Cyber Security Centre.

Robert said the assessment would be made public, along with the source code for the app.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/australias-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-what-we-know-so-far

although this piece says no

https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-wont-log-your-location-but-it-will-reveal-who-you-hang-out-with-136387

Michael V said:

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

You mean not everybody turns it off?

only the tinfoil hat brigade turn it off.

I don’t use the internet on my phone.

The ELS part looks good.

OK, I obviously hadn’t caught that it was only the Bluetooth bit. I understood mobile phones were, in general, completely trackable.

Michael V said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Nice one.

:)

Indeed. :)

Arts said:

I mean the bluetoothing is great until someone is testing positive then

“If I was confirmed positive, my data goes up to a central data store, only to state health officials, no-one else, and then they could rapidly call anyone I had been in close contact with.”

I mean it’s great in principle, assuming all actors use the data for the purpose.. but…

well, that is a trust issue and one the government has trouble with. as far as tracking etc that is a different issue and one, i hope, has been dealt with here.

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

Arts said:

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

No, it isn’t.

https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/911/Apps%20Wrkshp%202015/911_Help_SMS_WhitePaper0515.pdf

and that’s just for starters.

Bubblecar said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Michael V said:

Nice work!

:)

Bugger
.
.
.
.
IDGI

Glen Twenty is an antiseptic spray.

Is it? I thought it was only a air freshener.

Arts said:

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

No, it isn’t.

https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/911/Apps%20Wrkshp%202015/911_Help_SMS_WhitePaper0515.pdf

and that’s just for starters.

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

The Rev Dodgson said:

ChrispenEvan said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

You mean not everybody turns it off?

only the tinfoil hat brigade turn it off.

Nonsense.

If you were wearing a tinfoil hat you wouldn’t need to turn it off.

:)

Don’t worry just give it all to some private industry to develop and soon we’ll have it installed on every single one of our devices, even our oven, and we’ll be clicking yes to every share my feature and gushing about how slick it is and how it only cost $200 per installation.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

‘tis true.

SCIENCE said:

Don’t worry just give it all to some private industry to develop and soon we’ll have it installed on every single one of our devices, even our oven, and we’ll be clicking yes to every share my feature and gushing about how slick it is and how it only cost $200 per installation.

I vote fridge door tells you everything and everyone else everything about you.

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

No, it isn’t.

https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/911/Apps%20Wrkshp%202015/911_Help_SMS_WhitePaper0515.pdf

and that’s just for starters.

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

No, it isn’t.

https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/911/Apps%20Wrkshp%202015/911_Help_SMS_WhitePaper0515.pdf

and that’s just for starters.

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

That is correct.

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

Apologies. Monday. Sarcasm detector is on idle.

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

Fair call.

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

Don’t worry just give it all to some private industry to develop and soon we’ll have it installed on every single one of our devices, even our oven, and we’ll be clicking yes to every share my feature and gushing about how slick it is and how it only cost $200 per installation.

I vote fridge door tells you everything and everyone else everything about you.

Got them stuffed. I turn the fridge & the micro off when I come to Cairns.

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

Tamb said:

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

Don’t worry just give it all to some private industry to develop and soon we’ll have it installed on every single one of our devices, even our oven, and we’ll be clicking yes to every share my feature and gushing about how slick it is and how it only cost $200 per installation.

I vote fridge door tells you everything and everyone else everything about you.

Got them stuffed. I turn the fridge & the micro off when I come to Cairns.

If in doubt, turn it off and on again whenever you need it.

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

yeah, just read that. none too accurate.

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

mollwollfumble said:

‘ello ‘ello.

My old boss from CSIRO has just asked me to do coronavirus modelling. To see if my old work on particle deposition in museums (with reference to degradation of artworks) can be applied to deposition of coronavirus-containing droplets in supermarkets and hospitals.

It can, if I can get an accurate estimate of ambient air velocities in supermarkets and hospitals.

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

I feel the same.
When walking on Cairns boardwalk I stat on the upwind side when passing other walkers.

why not just wear a mask

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

All good. :)

buffy said:

mollwollfumble said:

monkey skipper said:

Oh. I hope you do and are successful. Are you a little bit excited?

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

How much actual testing for flu has been done in the past? I suspect we don’t have a good idea of how much flu is around each season as only those who manage to get to the doctor – and not all of them – would have lab testing done. Is it a reportable disease or a discretionary one?

so despite increased surveillance the numbers have gone down ¿

SCIENCE said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

I feel the same.
When walking on Cairns boardwalk I stat on the upwind side when passing other walkers.

why not just wear a mask

I’m almost certain I have seen this type of modelling already done in a supermarket.

SCIENCE said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

I feel the same.
When walking on Cairns boardwalk I stat on the upwind side when passing other walkers.

why not just wear a mask

I do tend to think that awareness of wind direction is an important factor in social distancing.

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

dickhead

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

But accuracy improves significantly in urban areas, where more and more towers can be factored in.

And ‘none too accurate’ or not, the claim that it’s impossible is dispelled.

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

I said i was sorry.

SCIENCE said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Spocky & I would be very interested in that as well thanks. I keep mentioning that when we get stuff delivered here at home, we should always try to stay upwind of the person making the delivery. I’m 99.99999% sure that the virus can’t make its way upwind somehow.

I feel the same.
When walking on Cairns boardwalk I stat on the upwind side when passing other walkers.

why not just wear a mask

I go there to breathe fresh sea air. Not semi-recycled breath.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

probably.. lots of stores use them. To be fair, I have only read about it being used by google and on android phones.. where app rely on bluetooth tracking and history.. I read about this while researching the dick pic sending via bluetooth on a crowded New York train.. it’s a really interesting process. Legally, you can’t use this information to apprehend someone because the law has not caught up with he tech.. but that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

It’s why i live in a rural area, bluetooth isn’t much good out here.

SCIENCE said:

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

dickhead

+1

SCIENCE said:

buffy said:

mollwollfumble said:

Jumping up and down with excitement. It doesn’t matter whether there is or not any monetary payment.

In other news. Lowest ever recorded levels of flu in Australia, still going down.

How much actual testing for flu has been done in the past? I suspect we don’t have a good idea of how much flu is around each season as only those who manage to get to the doctor – and not all of them – would have lab testing done. Is it a reportable disease or a discretionary one?

so despite increased surveillance the numbers have gone down ¿

No. More people are washing their hands and staying at a respectable distance.

SCIENCE said:

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

dickhead

Worse still a threat to the community outside his oblivious dickhead.

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

arts was being sarcastic, i believe.

I said i was sorry.

:). no reflection on you c_s. you are doing fine. It’s just that sarcasm knows sarcasm and a lot of the time Boris and I are being sarcastic.

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

It’s why i live in a rural area, bluetooth isn’t much good out here.

same.

SCIENCE said:

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

dickhead

Mr Djokovic will do as he is fucking told and be grateful for the attention involved in the telling.

Arts said:

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

I said i was sorry.

:). no reflection on you c_s. you are doing fine. It’s just that sarcasm knows sarcasm and a lot of the time Boris and I are being sarcastic.

No! I find that hard to believe.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

sibeen said:

Novak Djokovic, the 17 time grand slam tennis champion, says he’s “opposed” to vaccination and would face a difficult choice if one became available for Covid-19.

Reuters reports that during live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes, Djokovic, who most recently won the Australian Open in January, said he “wouldn’t want to be forced” to receive a vaccine.

“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” Djokovic reportedly

Sheesh

dickhead

Mr Djokovic will do as he is fucking told and be grateful for the attention involved in the telling.

he must be losing millions by not being able to play.

roughbarked said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

It’s why i live in a rural area, bluetooth isn’t much good out here.

same.

+1

Tamb said:

Arts said:

captain_spalding said:

I said i was sorry.

:). no reflection on you c_s. you are doing fine. It’s just that sarcasm knows sarcasm and a lot of the time Boris and I are being sarcastic.

No! I find that hard to believe.

see? it’s contagious.

Arts said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

dickhead

Mr Djokovic will do as he is fucking told and be grateful for the attention involved in the telling.

he must be losing millions by not being able to play.

The poor, poor bastard.

Arts said:

captain_spalding said:

Arts said:

I said i was sorry.

:). no reflection on you c_s. you are doing fine. It’s just that sarcasm knows sarcasm and a lot of the time Boris and I are being sarcastic.

what do you mean “a lot of the time”? it’s a full time job for me. though with the lockdown my audience has been reduced considerably. Hmmmm i wonder if i could get the jobkeeper benefit?

Arts said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

dickhead

Mr Djokovic will do as he is fucking told and be grateful for the attention involved in the telling.

he must be losing millions by not being able to play.

Enough might well be enough. He could have enough money to stay at home alone forever?

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

ChrispenEvan said:

OK, say for instance i was near person B for 15 minutes, the app would record this. Then say person B tested positive. I would then be asked to be tested as I had been near person B. so would anyone else who had been in close contact wiith person B and also now me. Plus anyone else I had been in close contact with since being close to person B.

A laudable purpose.

Although it’s difficult to believe that our government didn’t ask during the development of such an app for a few extra features which they earnestly hoped they would never have to use.

It’s fucking bluetooth, limited range and it doesn’t talk to towers.

fkov, who do you think the government are, Huawei ¿

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

captain_spalding said:

I said i was sorry.

:). no reflection on you c_s. you are doing fine. It’s just that sarcasm knows sarcasm and a lot of the time Boris and I are being sarcastic.

what do you mean “a lot of the time”? it’s a full time job for me. though with the lockdown my audience has been reduced considerably. Hmmmm i wonder if i could get the jobkeeper benefit?

Have you been sarcastic for the same employer for more than 12 months?

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

thing is you can turn all these tracking systems off. and if you are inclined that way then you probably wont be the type to download this app in the first place.

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

It’s why i live in a rural area, bluetooth isn’t much good out here.

it isn’t really the reason. plus i don’t have a bluetooth capable phone.

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

Anyway, a particular phone can already be tracked very accurately by triangulation from towers.

Twenty years ago you could readily buy software that would allow you to track a specified mobile phone to within 50 metres. That was what was on the open and legitimate market, for you, me, and your Aunt Tilly to use.

If things haven’t improved since that, especially as used by law enforcement, i’d be quite surprised.

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

no, we’ve not turned ours off

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

well, yes exactly. But the point is that bluetooth can be tracked.. and many aps, including this one, use bluetooth facilities or be useless..

so the ability to be tracked IS there.. the usability in a real word sense is more of a minefield. but then, you know what they say.. if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about.

And tracking has great features too… if you go missing, get kidnapped, die or jump off a cliff and your smart phone somehow survives the fall or they find the pertinent parts to recover info from…

It’s why i live in a rural area, bluetooth isn’t much good out here.

it isn’t really the reason. plus i don’t have a bluetooth capable phone.

same

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

party_pants said:

Unless you turn it off, Google Maps will automatically start tracking where you’ve been anyway.

You mean not everybody turns it off?

no, we’ve not turned ours off

No need for it here. I know my way around every bush.

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

yes.. and triangulation is impossible.

yep, because it is bluetooth and it is short range and doesn’t talk to towers.

I get that, but I’ll remain sceptical.

it won’t, but the opportunistic virus it delivers will do all of the above

and drive your car

and spin down your U-235 centrifuges

ChrispenEvan said:

Arts said:

I mean, you can also track bluetooth. If you have the beacons.

and these beacons are ubiquitous in the wild?

are Pokémon ¿

SCIENCE said:

Arts said:

ChrispenEvan said:

yep, because it is bluetooth and it is short range and doesn’t talk to towers.

I get that, but I’ll remain sceptical.

it won’t, but the opportunistic virus it delivers will do all of the above

and drive your car

and spin down your U-235 centrifuges

U-235 Type VIIC U-boat.

Loss
On April 14, 1945, U-235 was heading to Norway with U-1272 when they encountered a small German convoy accompanied by the torpedo boat T17. All vessels had not been warned of the others’ presence. But the convoy had been warned that a British submarine was in the area. U-1272 dived deep and out of trouble, but U-235 surfaced, possibly to identify herself and then as if changing her mind, also dived. T17 attacked, dropping depth charges. Any celebration on T17 was abruptly stilled when amongst the wreckage appearing were bodies in Kriegsmarine uniform. Forty-six men died; there were no survivors.

SCIENCE said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

A laudable purpose.

Although it’s difficult to believe that our government didn’t ask during the development of such an app for a few extra features which they earnestly hoped they would never have to use.

It’s fucking bluetooth, limited range and it doesn’t talk to towers.

fkov, who do you think the government are, Huawei ¿

Only bluetooth I have is my phone talking to my car.

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

You mean not everybody turns it off?

no, we’ve not turned ours off

No need for it here. I know my way around every bush.

you misapprehend our implication … we have also never risen from the dead

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

no, we’ve not turned ours off

No need for it here. I know my way around every bush.

you misapprehend our implication … we have also never risen from the dead

We have not, this is correct.

PermeateFree said:

Those Danes are crazy.

captain_spalding said:

PermeateFree said:

Those Danes are crazy.

no kroners for the cronies

“Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States

Abstract

Background Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19.

Methods

We evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data.

Results

There were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I. Conclusions Excess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431v1

ABC said:

Do the Ruby Princess cases count as Australian figures?

Do the Ruby Princess crew stats get counted as NSW figures?

-Ruby Tuesday (Monday?)

Do Ruby Princess cases tally to Australia ?

-Carolyn

Hi guys,

No, they don’t.

The New South Wales Government said that, because they are on the cruise ship, the New South Wales government and the Australian government don’t count them as Australian case.

They will only be counted if they get treated in Australia, otherwise they are not part of the official statistics.

so the reason our not-struggling healthcare systems are not allowed to help people in need, is because it might make our numbers look bad ¿

fkn

ABC said:

Do the Ruby Princess cases count as Australian figures?

Do the Ruby Princess crew stats get counted as NSW figures?

-Ruby Tuesday (Monday?)

Do Ruby Princess cases tally to Australia ?

-Carolyn

Hi guys,

No, they don’t.

The New South Wales Government said that, because they are on the cruise ship, the New South Wales government and the Australian government don’t count them as Australian case.

They will only be counted if they get treated in Australia, otherwise they are not part of the official statistics.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus dashboard, the ship gets its own listing, as though it were a country.

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

Rule 303 said:

ABC said:

Do the Ruby Princess cases count as Australian figures?

Do the Ruby Princess crew stats get counted as NSW figures?

-Ruby Tuesday (Monday?)

Do Ruby Princess cases tally to Australia ?

-Carolyn

Hi guys,

No, they don’t.

The New South Wales Government said that, because they are on the cruise ship, the New South Wales government and the Australian government don’t count them as Australian case.

They will only be counted if they get treated in Australia, otherwise they are not part of the official statistics.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus dashboard, the ship gets its own listing, as though it were a country.

well that would make sense

it’s like our states squabbling over who counts which patients

someone should probably tell our politicians who are terrified of a few cruise passengers / staff

dv said:

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

I don’t always laugh at your humour. But I did just now.

dv said:

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

but maybe we’d have even fewer cases if they did ¿

SCIENCE said:

dv said:

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

but maybe we’d have even fewer cases if they did ¿

>but maybe we’d have even fewer cases survivors if they did/

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-china-sued-american-class-action-germany-sends-bill/12164106

so the whole flock immunity strategy has been, “we sheeple will always just be able to blame someone else for this so let it run riot and we’ll be able to demand the maximum compensation”, nice one

Tamb said:

SCIENCE said:

dv said:

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

but maybe we’d have even fewer cases if they did ¿

>but maybe we’d have even fewer cases survivors if they did/

oh c’m‘on Pascal, surely you know, the magnets might help, but they won’t make you more sick, so just buy some carbon now

dv said:

Even though it’s a hassle that the pharmacists are out of ab wipes and sanitiser etc, it’s kind of comforting that the shelves are still full of useless shit like magnetic bracelets and activated carbon. At least people are smart enough not to panic buy trash.

You’d probably want some of the fam having activated carbon during lockdown if you had a small house, reduces farting ¹.

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7015846

Does chewing with mouth open increase the risk of droplet transmission ¿

Rule 303 said:

ABC said:

Do the Ruby Princess cases count as Australian figures?

Do the Ruby Princess crew stats get counted as NSW figures?

-Ruby Tuesday (Monday?)

Do Ruby Princess cases tally to Australia ?

-Carolyn

Hi guys,

No, they don’t.

The New South Wales Government said that, because they are on the cruise ship, the New South Wales government and the Australian government don’t count them as Australian case.

They will only be counted if they get treated in Australia, otherwise they are not part of the official statistics.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus dashboard, the ship gets its own listing, as though it were a country.

That’s the Diamond Princess (the Japan-docked ship), not the Ruby Princess ( the NSW docked ship).

Michael V said:

Rule 303 said:

ABC said:

Do the Ruby Princess cases count as Australian figures?

Do the Ruby Princess crew stats get counted as NSW figures?

-Ruby Tuesday (Monday?)

Do Ruby Princess cases tally to Australia ?

-Carolyn

Hi guys,

No, they don’t.

The New South Wales Government said that, because they are on the cruise ship, the New South Wales government and the Australian government don’t count them as Australian case.

They will only be counted if they get treated in Australia, otherwise they are not part of the official statistics.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus dashboard, the ship gets its own listing, as though it were a country.

That’s the Diamond Princess (the Japan-docked ship), not the Ruby Princess ( the NSW docked ship).

Too many bejewelled Princesses…

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

© Greg Lovett, The Palm Beach Post/ USA TODAY Network Healthcare worker Ludnie Emile prepares to test people for COVID-19 at their drive-thru coronavirus testing station in Palm Springs, Fla. on March 19, 2020.

Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.

It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place as they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.
There is no crystal ball to look to, because so many crucial pieces of information remain missing.

Are people who’ve had COVID-19 immune? How long does immunity last? Will the virus play out like influenza and the common cold, peaking during cooler months and falling during warmer ones? Is its deadly path undeterred whatever the weather?
Until there’s a vaccine “it’s unfortunately not unlikely that we may see a second wave or even a third wave,” said Peter Marks, director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccines.
“I shudder to think of that, but I think we have to be realistic.”

Immunity: Can you get the coronavirus more than once?

The first question on every doctor’s mind is whether someone who has had COVID-19 is immune, and if so for how long. People who’ve had mumps are immune from it for life. Versions of the common cold caused by different types of coronavirus see immunity wane within a year. Variations are wide.

COVID-19 is such a new disease that there is no solid data on the immunity of survivors. But given its similarities to coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it’s expected to convey at least some immunity.

That’s good news because so many people have contracted COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease. Many more probably have had it asymptomatically and didn’t know. Both groups likely have some immunity.

What percentage of the population is immune is impossible to know because the United States doesn’t yet have widespread testing, experts say. An answer is likely months away. Even if immunity isn’t lifelong, the virus may have infected enough people to make it hard for it to find new victims.

“It would mean we’d be getting to herd immunity through natural immunity” even before a vaccine is developed, said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, who co-wrote a paper in the journal Science modeling what COVID-19 might look like after the initial pandemic has passed.

When it comes back, it’s likely to hit hardest areas not severely infected the first time, said Gregory Poland, a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and editor-in-chief of the journal Vaccine.
“This outbreak has predominantly been on the two coasts. Wave 2 will be in the interior of the county where there are a lot of susceptible people,” he said.

Will the coronavirus go away in the summer?

Another factor is whether the virus survives longer in cooler, drier weather. That’s why the flu is more common in winter, its virus survives longer and people are more likely to be indoors in close contact.

“We have no idea really whether this is going to bounce back the moment people start going back outdoors or if the warmer weather is actually going to help us out,” said Michael Mina, a professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

“If it doesn’t happen in the summer, we’d all be very surprised if we don’t see some reemergence in the fall,” he said.
In that case, COVID-19’s sweet spot could be the same as influenza, roughly October to May, with a peak between October and November, modeling suggests. If it does behave like influenza, it will move to the Southern hemisphere for winter there, then return to the Northern hemisphere for its cold months.

“To anthropomorphize, the virus will come back here looking for new victims,” Poland said.
The first wave of the disease, which the world is experiencing now, hit so hard because no one had immunity. It could eventually fall into a pattern of yearly reoccurrence, like influenza.

If compounded with the annual wave of winter flu, the nation’s hospitals would be further taxed.
A fall spike also seems likely as children go back to school, said Mike Reid, a professor of infectious disease at the University of California-San Francisco.

To prevent that, wide-scale testing will need to be available, and contact tracing must be in place to find everyone who has been exposed and get them to self-isolate for at least 14 days.

“Given the potential for repeated waves, the more that can be put in place to rapidly jump on every new spike and ring-fence every infected individual with wraparound health services is going to be crucial,” Reid said.

What we do matters

Experts say how we behave will play a large part in the size and severity of subsequent waves. People can help by remaining vigilant about washing their hands, continuing to socially distance and wear masks in public.
Add to that more surveillance and widely available tests, chances improve the second wave is smaller than the first.
As states begin to ease restrictions, the United States will effectively become a massive series of experiments. Epidemiologists will be watching carefully, Lipsitch said.

Some areas will reopen schools, while other will have staggered school days, so not all students are there at the same time. The same will happen in workplaces, even as more work from home. Some areas will “cocoon” the elderly, taking special care they are not exposed. Others may create “passports” for people who are immune, if there’s data showing infection confers immunity.
“There are many things we can do, and we don’t know how any of them will work yet,” Lipsitch said.

Doing temperature testing in schools and businesses, as is now done in Asia, could be helpful.
“It’s not the most sensitive test in the world, but it is a screen that keeps people conscious that they have an obligation not to infect other people,” said Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.
The price of health is eternal vigilance
Vigilance will be key, experts say.

“No one can say when the coast is clear,” said William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

COVID-19 is easy enough to spread and has a long enough incubation period it’s possible to go from 100 known cases one week to 65,000 a few weeks later. “One slip and we could see it resurging,” he said.
There’s a cautionary tale from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, which infected 375 people there and killed 44. The city took expanded precautions beginning in March, but they were lifted in May when it appeared the outbreak was over. It wasn’t.
“Toronto took the brakes off,” Hanage said. “They had a flare, and it took them weeks to get it back under control.”

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

© Greg Lovett, The Palm Beach Post/ USA TODAY Network Healthcare worker Ludnie Emile prepares to test people for COVID-19 at their drive-thru coronavirus testing station in Palm Springs, Fla. on March 19, 2020.

Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.

It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place as they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.
There is no crystal ball to look to, because so many crucial pieces of information remain missing.

Are people who’ve had COVID-19 immune? How long does immunity last? Will the virus play out like influenza and the common cold, peaking during cooler months and falling during warmer ones? Is its deadly path undeterred whatever the weather?
Until there’s a vaccine “it’s unfortunately not unlikely that we may see a second wave or even a third wave,” said Peter Marks, director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccines.
“I shudder to think of that, but I think we have to be realistic.”

Immunity: Can you get the coronavirus more than once?

The first question on every doctor’s mind is whether someone who has had COVID-19 is immune, and if so for how long. People who’ve had mumps are immune from it for life. Versions of the common cold caused by different types of coronavirus see immunity wane within a year. Variations are wide.

COVID-19 is such a new disease that there is no solid data on the immunity of survivors. But given its similarities to coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it’s expected to convey at least some immunity.

That’s good news because so many people have contracted COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease. Many more probably have had it asymptomatically and didn’t know. Both groups likely have some immunity.

What percentage of the population is immune is impossible to know because the United States doesn’t yet have widespread testing, experts say. An answer is likely months away. Even if immunity isn’t lifelong, the virus may have infected enough people to make it hard for it to find new victims.

“It would mean we’d be getting to herd immunity through natural immunity” even before a vaccine is developed, said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, who co-wrote a paper in the journal Science modeling what COVID-19 might look like after the initial pandemic has passed.

When it comes back, it’s likely to hit hardest areas not severely infected the first time, said Gregory Poland, a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and editor-in-chief of the journal Vaccine.
“This outbreak has predominantly been on the two coasts. Wave 2 will be in the interior of the county where there are a lot of susceptible people,” he said.

Will the coronavirus go away in the summer?

Another factor is whether the virus survives longer in cooler, drier weather. That’s why the flu is more common in winter, its virus survives longer and people are more likely to be indoors in close contact.

“We have no idea really whether this is going to bounce back the moment people start going back outdoors or if the warmer weather is actually going to help us out,” said Michael Mina, a professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

“If it doesn’t happen in the summer, we’d all be very surprised if we don’t see some reemergence in the fall,” he said.
In that case, COVID-19’s sweet spot could be the same as influenza, roughly October to May, with a peak between October and November, modeling suggests. If it does behave like influenza, it will move to the Southern hemisphere for winter there, then return to the Northern hemisphere for its cold months.

“To anthropomorphize, the virus will come back here looking for new victims,” Poland said.
The first wave of the disease, which the world is experiencing now, hit so hard because no one had immunity. It could eventually fall into a pattern of yearly reoccurrence, like influenza.

If compounded with the annual wave of winter flu, the nation’s hospitals would be further taxed.
A fall spike also seems likely as children go back to school, said Mike Reid, a professor of infectious disease at the University of California-San Francisco.

To prevent that, wide-scale testing will need to be available, and contact tracing must be in place to find everyone who has been exposed and get them to self-isolate for at least 14 days.

“Given the potential for repeated waves, the more that can be put in place to rapidly jump on every new spike and ring-fence every infected individual with wraparound health services is going to be crucial,” Reid said.

What we do matters

Experts say how we behave will play a large part in the size and severity of subsequent waves. People can help by remaining vigilant about washing their hands, continuing to socially distance and wear masks in public.
Add to that more surveillance and widely available tests, chances improve the second wave is smaller than the first.
As states begin to ease restrictions, the United States will effectively become a massive series of experiments. Epidemiologists will be watching carefully, Lipsitch said.

Some areas will reopen schools, while other will have staggered school days, so not all students are there at the same time. The same will happen in workplaces, even as more work from home. Some areas will “cocoon” the elderly, taking special care they are not exposed. Others may create “passports” for people who are immune, if there’s data showing infection confers immunity.
“There are many things we can do, and we don’t know how any of them will work yet,” Lipsitch said.

Doing temperature testing in schools and businesses, as is now done in Asia, could be helpful.
“It’s not the most sensitive test in the world, but it is a screen that keeps people conscious that they have an obligation not to infect other people,” said Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.
The price of health is eternal vigilance
Vigilance will be key, experts say.

“No one can say when the coast is clear,” said William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

COVID-19 is easy enough to spread and has a long enough incubation period it’s possible to go from 100 known cases one week to 65,000 a few weeks later. “One slip and we could see it resurging,” he said.
There’s a cautionary tale from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, which infected 375 people there and killed 44. The city took expanded precautions beginning in March, but they were lifted in May when it appeared the outbreak was over. It wasn’t.
“Toronto took the brakes off,” Hanage said. “They had a flare, and it took them weeks to get it back under control.”

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

dv said:

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

© Greg Lovett, The Palm Beach Post/ USA TODAY Network Healthcare worker Ludnie Emile prepares to test people for COVID-19 at their drive-thru coronavirus testing station in Palm Springs, Fla. on March 19, 2020.

Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.

It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place as they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.
There is no crystal ball to look to, because so many crucial pieces of information remain missing.

Are people who’ve had COVID-19 immune? How long does immunity last? Will the virus play out like influenza and the common cold, peaking during cooler months and falling during warmer ones? Is its deadly path undeterred whatever the weather?
Until there’s a vaccine “it’s unfortunately not unlikely that we may see a second wave or even a third wave,” said Peter Marks, director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccines.
“I shudder to think of that, but I think we have to be realistic.”

Immunity: Can you get the coronavirus more than once?

The first question on every doctor’s mind is whether someone who has had COVID-19 is immune, and if so for how long. People who’ve had mumps are immune from it for life. Versions of the common cold caused by different types of coronavirus see immunity wane within a year. Variations are wide.

COVID-19 is such a new disease that there is no solid data on the immunity of survivors. But given its similarities to coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it’s expected to convey at least some immunity.

That’s good news because so many people have contracted COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease. Many more probably have had it asymptomatically and didn’t know. Both groups likely have some immunity.

What percentage of the population is immune is impossible to know because the United States doesn’t yet have widespread testing, experts say. An answer is likely months away. Even if immunity isn’t lifelong, the virus may have infected enough people to make it hard for it to find new victims.

“It would mean we’d be getting to herd immunity through natural immunity” even before a vaccine is developed, said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, who co-wrote a paper in the journal Science modeling what COVID-19 might look like after the initial pandemic has passed.

When it comes back, it’s likely to hit hardest areas not severely infected the first time, said Gregory Poland, a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and editor-in-chief of the journal Vaccine.
“This outbreak has predominantly been on the two coasts. Wave 2 will be in the interior of the county where there are a lot of susceptible people,” he said.

Will the coronavirus go away in the summer?

Another factor is whether the virus survives longer in cooler, drier weather. That’s why the flu is more common in winter, its virus survives longer and people are more likely to be indoors in close contact.

“We have no idea really whether this is going to bounce back the moment people start going back outdoors or if the warmer weather is actually going to help us out,” said Michael Mina, a professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

“If it doesn’t happen in the summer, we’d all be very surprised if we don’t see some reemergence in the fall,” he said.
In that case, COVID-19’s sweet spot could be the same as influenza, roughly October to May, with a peak between October and November, modeling suggests. If it does behave like influenza, it will move to the Southern hemisphere for winter there, then return to the Northern hemisphere for its cold months.

“To anthropomorphize, the virus will come back here looking for new victims,” Poland said.
The first wave of the disease, which the world is experiencing now, hit so hard because no one had immunity. It could eventually fall into a pattern of yearly reoccurrence, like influenza.

If compounded with the annual wave of winter flu, the nation’s hospitals would be further taxed.
A fall spike also seems likely as children go back to school, said Mike Reid, a professor of infectious disease at the University of California-San Francisco.

To prevent that, wide-scale testing will need to be available, and contact tracing must be in place to find everyone who has been exposed and get them to self-isolate for at least 14 days.

“Given the potential for repeated waves, the more that can be put in place to rapidly jump on every new spike and ring-fence every infected individual with wraparound health services is going to be crucial,” Reid said.

What we do matters

Experts say how we behave will play a large part in the size and severity of subsequent waves. People can help by remaining vigilant about washing their hands, continuing to socially distance and wear masks in public.
Add to that more surveillance and widely available tests, chances improve the second wave is smaller than the first.
As states begin to ease restrictions, the United States will effectively become a massive series of experiments. Epidemiologists will be watching carefully, Lipsitch said.

Some areas will reopen schools, while other will have staggered school days, so not all students are there at the same time. The same will happen in workplaces, even as more work from home. Some areas will “cocoon” the elderly, taking special care they are not exposed. Others may create “passports” for people who are immune, if there’s data showing infection confers immunity.
“There are many things we can do, and we don’t know how any of them will work yet,” Lipsitch said.

Doing temperature testing in schools and businesses, as is now done in Asia, could be helpful.
“It’s not the most sensitive test in the world, but it is a screen that keeps people conscious that they have an obligation not to infect other people,” said Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.
The price of health is eternal vigilance
Vigilance will be key, experts say.

“No one can say when the coast is clear,” said William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

COVID-19 is easy enough to spread and has a long enough incubation period it’s possible to go from 100 known cases one week to 65,000 a few weeks later. “One slip and we could see it resurging,” he said.
There’s a cautionary tale from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, which infected 375 people there and killed 44. The city took expanded precautions beginning in March, but they were lifted in May when it appeared the outbreak was over. It wasn’t.
“Toronto took the brakes off,” Hanage said. “They had a flare, and it took them weeks to get it back under control.”

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

You’re such a Debbie Downer.

dv said:

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

now they can say “see, this time we were prepared for it, we predicted this” and move along

SCIENCE said:

dv said:

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

now they can say “see, this time we were prepared for it, we predicted this” and move along

Trump will just blame the Governors for relaxing conditions too soon.

‘Epidemic fail’: Furious international passenger on Ruby Princess claims non-Australians being ignored

An American passenger from the stricken Ruby Princess says the cruise line and authorities are failing to track international guests and aren’t responding to emails, as infections linked to the voyage continue to mount.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ruby-princess-passengers-says-overseas-ignored-after-coronavirus/12162942

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

LOL.

This one won’t get through the peer-review process…

Abstract

A mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this study. The parameters and the associated uncertainty in the model are optimized and quantified using various reported data sets reported from different countries. The results suggest that, by the mid of June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062893v1

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

Is it over or under estimating?

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

but many models have given results wildly disparate with actual outcomes

(also it’d be useful to know the guts of the model, which don’t seem to get published anywhere)

Michael V said:

LOL.

This one won’t get through the peer-review process…

Abstract

A mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this study. The parameters and the associated uncertainty in the model are optimized and quantified using various reported data sets reported from different countries. The results suggest that, by the mid of June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062893v1

It still might be a good model. It may be a great model, it may be one of the greatest models that has ever been produced.

buffy said:

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

Is it over or under estimating?

apparently both

sibeen said:

Michael V said:

LOL.

This one won’t get through the peer-review process…

Abstract

A mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this study. The parameters and the associated uncertainty in the model are optimized and quantified using various reported data sets reported from different countries. The results suggest that, by the mid of June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062893v1

It still might be a good model. It may be a great model, it may be one of the greatest models that has ever been produced.

grab it by the civet

dv said:

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

© Greg Lovett, The Palm Beach Post/ USA TODAY Network Healthcare worker Ludnie Emile prepares to test people for COVID-19 at their drive-thru coronavirus testing station in Palm Springs, Fla. on March 19, 2020.

Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.

It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place as they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.
There is no crystal ball to look to, because so many crucial pieces of information remain missing.

Are people who’ve had COVID-19 immune? How long does immunity last? Will the virus play out like influenza and the common cold, peaking during cooler months and falling during warmer ones? Is its deadly path undeterred whatever the weather?
Until there’s a vaccine “it’s unfortunately not unlikely that we may see a second wave or even a third wave,” said Peter Marks, director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccines.
“I shudder to think of that, but I think we have to be realistic.”

Immunity: Can you get the coronavirus more than once?

The first question on every doctor’s mind is whether someone who has had COVID-19 is immune, and if so for how long. People who’ve had mumps are immune from it for life. Versions of the common cold caused by different types of coronavirus see immunity wane within a year. Variations are wide.

COVID-19 is such a new disease that there is no solid data on the immunity of survivors. But given its similarities to coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it’s expected to convey at least some immunity.

That’s good news because so many people have contracted COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease. Many more probably have had it asymptomatically and didn’t know. Both groups likely have some immunity.

What percentage of the population is immune is impossible to know because the United States doesn’t yet have widespread testing, experts say. An answer is likely months away. Even if immunity isn’t lifelong, the virus may have infected enough people to make it hard for it to find new victims.

“It would mean we’d be getting to herd immunity through natural immunity” even before a vaccine is developed, said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, who co-wrote a paper in the journal Science modeling what COVID-19 might look like after the initial pandemic has passed.

When it comes back, it’s likely to hit hardest areas not severely infected the first time, said Gregory Poland, a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and editor-in-chief of the journal Vaccine.
“This outbreak has predominantly been on the two coasts. Wave 2 will be in the interior of the county where there are a lot of susceptible people,” he said.

Will the coronavirus go away in the summer?

Another factor is whether the virus survives longer in cooler, drier weather. That’s why the flu is more common in winter, its virus survives longer and people are more likely to be indoors in close contact.

“We have no idea really whether this is going to bounce back the moment people start going back outdoors or if the warmer weather is actually going to help us out,” said Michael Mina, a professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

“If it doesn’t happen in the summer, we’d all be very surprised if we don’t see some reemergence in the fall,” he said.
In that case, COVID-19’s sweet spot could be the same as influenza, roughly October to May, with a peak between October and November, modeling suggests. If it does behave like influenza, it will move to the Southern hemisphere for winter there, then return to the Northern hemisphere for its cold months.

“To anthropomorphize, the virus will come back here looking for new victims,” Poland said.
The first wave of the disease, which the world is experiencing now, hit so hard because no one had immunity. It could eventually fall into a pattern of yearly reoccurrence, like influenza.

If compounded with the annual wave of winter flu, the nation’s hospitals would be further taxed.
A fall spike also seems likely as children go back to school, said Mike Reid, a professor of infectious disease at the University of California-San Francisco.

To prevent that, wide-scale testing will need to be available, and contact tracing must be in place to find everyone who has been exposed and get them to self-isolate for at least 14 days.

“Given the potential for repeated waves, the more that can be put in place to rapidly jump on every new spike and ring-fence every infected individual with wraparound health services is going to be crucial,” Reid said.

What we do matters

Experts say how we behave will play a large part in the size and severity of subsequent waves. People can help by remaining vigilant about washing their hands, continuing to socially distance and wear masks in public.
Add to that more surveillance and widely available tests, chances improve the second wave is smaller than the first.
As states begin to ease restrictions, the United States will effectively become a massive series of experiments. Epidemiologists will be watching carefully, Lipsitch said.

Some areas will reopen schools, while other will have staggered school days, so not all students are there at the same time. The same will happen in workplaces, even as more work from home. Some areas will “cocoon” the elderly, taking special care they are not exposed. Others may create “passports” for people who are immune, if there’s data showing infection confers immunity.
“There are many things we can do, and we don’t know how any of them will work yet,” Lipsitch said.

Doing temperature testing in schools and businesses, as is now done in Asia, could be helpful.
“It’s not the most sensitive test in the world, but it is a screen that keeps people conscious that they have an obligation not to infect other people,” said Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.
The price of health is eternal vigilance
Vigilance will be key, experts say.

“No one can say when the coast is clear,” said William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health.

COVID-19 is easy enough to spread and has a long enough incubation period it’s possible to go from 100 known cases one week to 65,000 a few weeks later. “One slip and we could see it resurging,” he said.
There’s a cautionary tale from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, which infected 375 people there and killed 44. The city took expanded precautions beginning in March, but they were lifted in May when it appeared the outbreak was over. It wasn’t.
“Toronto took the brakes off,” Hanage said. “They had a flare, and it took them weeks to get it back under control.”

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

My guess it that this hypothesis exists because a 2nd wave happened with a pandemic in the late 1960’s. Some people may view this as a belated 2nd wave from the original sars being a new strain history may repeat itself.

monkey skipper said:

dv said:

monkey skipper said:

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY 43 mins ago

I’m scratching my head about all this talk of a second wave…

They are not through the first wave. It’s not at all clear that they are past the first peak in the US.

My guess it that this hypothesis exists because a 2nd wave happened with a pandemic in the late 1960’s. Some people may view this as a belated 2nd wave from the original sars being a new strain history may repeat itself.

just wait until they have the third wave in California, they might have to shut the school again

buffy said:

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

Is it over or under estimating?

Under.

They predicted daily deaths would peak at 2200 nine days ago.

Also, not long ago, predicted 60000 deaths by end August.
Be lucky if they are not at 60000 by end April at this rate.

buffy said:

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

Is it over or under estimating?

We both think it is wildly underestimating.

This short abstract doesn’t qualify a single direction of inaccuracy.

“We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

“Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions

Abstract

A recent model developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides forecasts for ventilator use and hospital beds required for the care of COVID19 patients on a state-by-state basis throughout the United States over the period March 2020 through August 2020 (See the related website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections for interactive data visualizations). In addition, the manuscript and associated website provide projections of deaths per day and total deaths throughout this period for the entire US, as well as for the District of Columbia. This research has received extensive attention in social media, as well as in the mass media. Moreover, this work has influenced policy makers at the highest levels of the United States government, having been mentioned at White House Press conferences, including March 31, 2020. In this paper, we evaluate the predictive validity of model forecasts for COVID19 outcomes as data become sequentially available, using the IHME prediction of daily deaths. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate. The model has been found to perform poorly even when attempting to predict the number of next day deaths. In particular, the true number of next day deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time.”

Oh dear.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1

dv has made several comments about this model.

but many models have given results wildly disparate with actual outcomes

(also it’d be useful to know the guts of the model, which don’t seem to get published anywhere)

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

sibeen said:

Michael V said:

LOL.

This one won’t get through the peer-review process…

Abstract

A mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this study. The parameters and the associated uncertainty in the model are optimized and quantified using various reported data sets reported from different countries. The results suggest that, by the mid of June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062893v1

It still might be a good model. It may be a great model, it may be one of the greatest models that has ever been produced.

Thank you DJT.

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

SCIENCE said:

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

Michael V said:

SCIENCE said:

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

Michael V said:

SCIENCE said:

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

monkey skipper said:

Michael V said:

SCIENCE said:

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

sorry noticed it here first

most of the jump seems to be in Wuhan

actually looking for more ref the WHO has this

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200417-sitrep-88-covid-191b6cccd94f8b4f219377bff55719a6ed.pdf?sfvrsn=ebe78315_6

Information from a variety of sources wasreviewed, leading to duplicate cases being removed and missed cases added. Following thisreview,the total number of cases in Wuhan increased by 325 and the total number of deaths increased by 1290.

—

so it does fit with that revision back then, fair

monkey skipper said:

Michael V said:

SCIENCE said:

so uh what’s the explanation for a sudden burst of 325 cases in Wuhan on 2020-04-17 ¿

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

Ta for reminding me.

Yes. There were some accounting errors, when various doctors etc were snowed under. Others have taken that as evidence for cover-ups. I see it as transparency.

Michael V said:

monkey skipper said:

Michael V said:

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

Ta for reminding me.

Yes. There were some accounting errors, when various doctors etc were snowed under. Others have taken that as evidence for cover-ups. I see it as transparency.

Me too.

SCIENCE said:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200417-sitrep-88-covid-191b6cccd94f8b4f219377bff55719a6ed.pdf?sfvrsn=ebe78315_6

Information from a variety of sources wasreviewed, leading to duplicate cases being removed and missed cases added. Following thisreview,the total number of cases in Wuhan increased by 325 and the total number of deaths increased by 1290.

—

so it does fit with that revision back then, fair

with this kind of thing the numbers “may as well” be assigned to that reporting day, since it is difficult to retrospectively assign them to any other specific earlier day, but it could help to include them as separate data series since directly including them kind of stuffs up trend analysis

remember the 2020-02-13 spike of 15000 cases (also Wuhan) which turned out to be just presumptive CT diagnoses (potentially overdiagnosis), the media went nuts over that too

Maybe because all the pigs had been killed in China because of the outbreak of swine flu at about the same time the markets were looking to bush meat.

Peak Warming Man said:

Maybe because all the pigs had been killed in China because of the outbreak of swine flu at about the same time the markets were looking to bush meat.

wild boar

Michael V said:

monkey skipper said:

Michael V said:

I hadn’t noticed.

Ref?

They are saying the adjustment is adding deaths that can now be considered to be caused by Covid 19. There may have been earlier cases before the pandemic was recognised as such and that the earlier deaths were related. Something along those lines was mentioned I believe.

Ta for reminding me.

Yes. There were some accounting errors, when various doctors etc were snowed under. Others have taken that as evidence for cover-ups. I see it as transparency.

I remember there was some backtracking of HIV deaths because in the very very early days the deaths were global unknown causes but few and far between or missed as a pattern except some weird indicators with the immune systems in all cases but initially they were patchy on not enough cases in specific locations to link to infections as the same cause.

Eventually as we are all aware now , the illness was then formally identified and given a name.

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

Rule 303 said:

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

Must have been a big rock that lot were living under.

Rule 303 said:

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

Expensive party.

Bubblecar said:

Rule 303 said:

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

Expensive party.

In that area it probably was an expensive party to start with. But it got more expensiver.

Mr buffy suggests they are not popular as neighbours.

Bubblecar said:

Rule 303 said:

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

Expensive party.

Probably a political staffer working on the principle of “one rule for them and another rule for us”.

Rule 303 said:

Coronavirus fines issued to Beaumaris residents after kids’ birthday party

Did we hear about this? About 50 people turned up to an 8yo kid’s party in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

I can’t even….

No, no, not, it’s OK. It’s the eastern suburbs, they don’t do disease.