As some have said, here in Australia almost all recent cases are imported — local transmission is minimal. We thought it might therefore be an opportune time to reflect on the adequacy of the public health response here, for all the slip-ups that have occurred. Data from the most populous state — that’s all we have time for for now.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-030620.pdf

“there is no indication to date that the COVID-19 pandemic in NSW is causing an overall increase in mortality”

—

“There have been 12 influenza deaths identified using Coroner’s reports and death registrations with laboratory-confirmed influenza reported for the year to date.
In 2019, for same period of time, there had been 43 laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths.”

—

How many emergency department presentations have there been for pneumonia?

Looks like there were a few extra, and then by the end of March we had some public health measures kicking in, and we’ve fixed half of the preexisting problem as well.

—

Thirty-one Aboriginal people have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This represents a small proportion of all COVID-19 cases (1%).

The population rate of COVID-19 is lower for Aboriginal people (11 confirmed cases for every 100,000) in NSW than the rest of the NSW population (39 confirmed cases for every 100,000 population).

—

Looks fairly well played, on the whole.

We hope the mass gatherings over the weekend don’t wreck all the good work that has been done.

Keep up the good practices and we might even cure the influenza and other similar infectious diseases problems, too.

Thanks everyone and see you next pandemic*.

*: or next “wave”

SCIENCE said:

As some have said, here in Australia almost all recent cases are imported — local transmission is minimal. We thought it might therefore be an opportune time to reflect on the adequacy of the public health response here, for all the slip-ups that have occurred. Data from the most populous state — that’s all we have time for for now.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-030620.pdf

“there is no indication to date that the COVID-19 pandemic in NSW is causing an overall increase in mortality”

—

“There have been 12 influenza deaths identified using Coroner’s reports and death registrations with laboratory-confirmed influenza reported for the year to date.
In 2019, for same period of time, there had been 43 laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths.”

—

How many emergency department presentations have there been for pneumonia?

Looks like there were a few extra, and then by the end of March we had some public health measures kicking in, and we’ve fixed half of the preexisting problem as well.

—

Thirty-one Aboriginal people have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This represents a small proportion of all COVID-19 cases (1%).

The population rate of COVID-19 is lower for Aboriginal people (11 confirmed cases for every 100,000) in NSW than the rest of the NSW population (39 confirmed cases for every 100,000 population).

—

Looks fairly well played, on the whole.

We hope the mass gatherings over the weekend don’t wreck all the good work that has been done.

Keep up the good practices and we might even cure the influenza and other similar infectious diseases problems, too.

Thanks everyone and see you next pandemic*.

*: or next “wave”

Thanks for that.

I’ve been looking for raw data on deaths by week/month by cause pre- Covid-19, to compare with post Covid-19. Can you help?

Tau.Neutrino said:

Up to 7 million now in the lotto draw.

Anyone reckon it will go over 12 million.

No. Between 7 and 10 million. 7 million confirmed cases, 10 million when you count cases that were never diagnosed.

Rule 303 said:

I see Jacinta’s pulling out the chocks and sending NZ back into full flight from Tuesday, having apparently eradicated Covid-19 from the country.

Good on her.

^

Looking at worldometers.

Not much new in status in the past week.

It’s fingers-crossed time for Peru and Iran. They may or may not be near peak new cases per day.

Chile data fails to make sense – huge changes yesterday. The huge rise in deaths per day yesterday can’t be realistic. Nor can the huge fall in number of active cases five days ago. Let’s wait another week until the data does make sense.

New problems in Saudi Arabia. The peak in new cases had looked like May 16, but now a rise after partial recovery has pushed the peak higher. Daily deaths has gone way up, but is still only 36 deaths per day because of the low mortality rate.

Ecuador still has totally ratshit data quality, but it seems to have passed peak new deaths way back about May 10. Peak new cases back about Apr 24 or May 4.

For Indonesia, it’s really difficult to pick how far it is through the pandemic. New cases are rising, but slowly.

In Poland, the number of new cases per day has been stagnating, virtually constant, for two months. The number of new deaths is declining, suggesting a reduction in mortality rate.

Ireland has just about completely recovered.

Philippines has a big rise in new cases after a two month long stagnation. This country needs watching.

mollwollfumble said:

In Poland, the number of new cases per day has been stagnating, virtually constant, for two months. The number of new deaths is declining, suggesting a reduction in mortality rate.

indeed, this is exactly the pattern one would expect from saturation of testing

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

In Poland, the number of new cases per day has been stagnating, virtually constant, for two months. The number of new deaths is declining, suggesting a reduction in mortality rate.

indeed, this is exactly the pattern one would expect from saturation of testing

True, but do you really think that that’s the case?
I may just have enough information to check that hypothesis. The ratio of number of tests to number of cases.

Poland has three times the number of tests per 1M population as the Ukraine. But the same population and the same total number of cases … oh … the Ukraine’s number of new cases is stagnating as well, since 23 Apr.

mollwollfumble said:

Poland has three times the number of tests per 1M population as the Ukraine. But the same population and the same total number of cases … oh … the Ukraine’s number of new cases is stagnating as well, since 23 Apr.

‘Is no new cases in Ukraine. All is well in Ukraine. Is nothing to see here, move along.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/08/new-zealand-abandons-covid-19-restrictions-after-nation-declared-no-cases

We congratulate, and express deep and sincere gratitude to, our cousins across the little sea, who have shown us the way.

In achieving what we yet have to (though we are close), they will inspire our leaders and our “leaders” to reflect on their yet-again-being-second-best and therefore lift their game and actually go for what we should always have gone for, eradication of disease and normalisation of social activity (with improved infection control measures of course).

Well done.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/coronavirus-increase-of-zero-in-victoria-as-school-students-back/12333564

West Taiwanese mouthpiece, WHO, insists that only True Scotsmen can be trusted not to spread COVID-19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/coronavirus-spread-by-asymtomatic-people-rare-no-symptoms-who/12336346

The spread of coronavirus by those who do not show any symptoms appears to be “very rare”, says a World Health Organization official. Data from countries with advanced contract tracing measures seem to show the highly contagious virus is not being spread by those who are asymptomatic, according to WHO epidemiologist Maria van Kerkhove.

She said some cases recorded as asymptomatic are actually mild forms of the disease. “When we go back and see how many of them were truly asymptomatic, we find many have really mild disease,” she said. “They’re not ‘COVID’ symptoms, meaning they may not have developed a fever yet, may not have a significant cough or shortness of breath.

“Having said that, we know there can be people who are truly asymptomatic.”

So, what is it, asymptomatic ¿ atypisymptomatic ¿ presymptomatic ¿ insignifisymptomatic ? If you don’t know in advance whether you’re just too early to have symptoms, or you will actually never have any symptoms, what’s the safe thing to do?

The World Health Organization (WHO) again urged countries to press on with efforts to contain the novel coronavirus, noting the pandemic was worsening globally and had not peaked in Central America.

More than 136,000 cases were reported worldwide on Sunday, “the most in a single day so far”, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

“More than six months into the pandemic, this is not the time for any country to take its foot off the pedal,” he told an online briefing.

In response to a question on China, the WHO’s top emergencies expert Dr Mike Ryan said retrospective studies of how the outbreak has been addressed could wait, adding: “We need to focus now on what we are doing today to prevent second peaks.”

The Economy Must Grow!

The head of budget airline Ryanair says he believes the United Kingdom’s coronavirus quarantine will be struck down by the courts or dropped within weeks, as some of Europe’s biggest airlines prepare to file a legal challenge to the policy.

Britain introduced a 14-day quarantine for international arrivals on Monday, leading to a major clash between Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Government and the airline industry.

By insisting on the quarantine despite public pleas from airlines, Britain has united some of the fiercest rivals in aviation who are already reeling from a sudden global halt in air travel.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said he hoped a court would hear an emergency legal challenge by the end of this week to halt the quarantine, which was imposed just as most European countries were reopening their economies.

“I think in their heart of hearts, the Government would like the courts to strike it down because it would get them off the hook,” Mr O’Leary told Reuters.

SCIENCE said:

The Economy Must Grow!

The head of budget airline Ryanair says he believes the United Kingdom’s coronavirus quarantine will be struck down by the courts or dropped within weeks, as some of Europe’s biggest airlines prepare to file a legal challenge to the policy.

Britain introduced a 14-day quarantine for international arrivals on Monday, leading to a major clash between Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Government and the airline industry.

By insisting on the quarantine despite public pleas from airlines, Britain has united some of the fiercest rivals in aviation who are already reeling from a sudden global halt in air travel.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said he hoped a court would hear an emergency legal challenge by the end of this week to halt the quarantine, which was imposed just as most European countries were reopening their economies.

“I think in their heart of hearts, the Government would like the courts to strike it down because it would get them off the hook,” Mr O’Leary told Reuters.

Or the airline industry can just suck eggs.

Whether they like it or not, intentional or not: the airline industry has become one of the primary means of spreading the virus. The whole industry model has the rethunk to take into account health issues. It would be irresponsible to insist on going back to business as usual without any new procedures in place.

it gets more and more interesting

—

“Hospitals contacted by The Guardian and other organisations have said that they didn’t know anything about Surgisphere and hadn’t handed over their data to them. It just looks very fishy, indeed.”

The Guardian reported that Surgisphere’s “handful of employees” included a science fiction writer and an adult-content model.

The company’s founder, Dr Sapan Desai, was one of the study’s authors. Requests for comment from Reuters to Dr Desai and Surgisphere were not immediately answered.

SCIENCE said:

it gets more and more interesting

—

“Hospitals contacted by The Guardian and other organisations have said that they didn’t know anything about Surgisphere and hadn’t handed over their data to them. It just looks very fishy, indeed.”

The Guardian reported that Surgisphere’s “handful of employees” included a science fiction writer and an adult-content model.

The company’s founder, Dr Sapan Desai, was one of the study’s authors. Requests for comment from Reuters to Dr Desai and Surgisphere were not immediately answered.

Sorry, what does this bit relate to?

“I am a bit concerned that he knew he was possibly in contact with a known case in Melbourne — we are still not sure,” Dr Young said.

“If he did know, he really should not have come to Queensland.”

The man entered Queensland under exemptions for essential workers, but Dr Young said the restrictions were working and the farm’s owners had done everything right.

“We know the incubation period is 14 days, and if you tested people on entry to Queensland you would know at that point they are negative, but they could cause a lot of transmission.

“It’s the 24 hours before you get symptoms that you are most contagious, and that might be why we are not seeing large numbers of cases from this particular gentleman who came to Bundaberg because he was in Melbourne at that time.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/covid-19-positive-picker-may-have-known-contact-with-case/12335824

So, what is it, asymptomatic ¿ atypisymptomatic ¿ presymptomatic ¿ insignifisymptomatic ? If you don’t know in advance whether you’re just too early to have symptoms, or you will actually never have any symptoms, what’s the safe thing to do?

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

it gets more and more interesting

—

“Hospitals contacted by The Guardian and other organisations have said that they didn’t know anything about Surgisphere and hadn’t handed over their data to them. It just looks very fishy, indeed.”

The Guardian reported that Surgisphere’s “handful of employees” included a science fiction writer and an adult-content model.

The company’s founder, Dr Sapan Desai, was one of the study’s authors. Requests for comment from Reuters to Dr Desai and Surgisphere were not immediately answered.

Sorry, what does this bit relate to?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-05/hydroxychloroquine-study-the-lancet-peer-review-coronavirus/12324118

How did The Lancet’s now-retracted study on hydroxychloroquine make it through peer review?

Scientists around the world are resuming trials of the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine for possible use against COVID-19, after the retraction of a heavily criticised study into its effects and side-effects. When the study was first published in the highly influential medical journal The Lancet, it prompted the World Health Organisation (WHO) to pause trials on the drug, which has long been used for preventing or treating malaria, as well as lupus. The observational study was published in The Lancet on May 22 and described data purportedly collected from 671 hospitals around the world, including 96,000 COVID-19 patients, some of whom were treated with hydroxychloroquine.

The data was gathered by a Chicago-based company called Surgisphere, a company that many experts suggested was too small to be capable of handling such an immense data set.

“This tiny company does not seem to have the capacity or the personnel to be able to do this,” ABC medical expert Dr Norman Swan said on the Coronacast podcast. “This was exposed by The Guardian, particularly in Australia, because it was shown that the Australian data they used could not have been right … The figures just did not add up for Australia.” For example, the research paper cited 73 deaths from COVID-19 in Australia by April 21, when official case counts only reported 67 deaths by the same date.

Critics also pointed out that the sheer scale of the data set seemed too good to be true. “A lot of the hospitals that they could have done it from don’t have the capacity to do it.

if anyone would like to recall the Theranos fun and games here is another piece of entertainment

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/theranos-founder-ceo-elizabeth-holmes-life-story-bio-2018-4?r=US&IR=T

conferatur Theranos

Elizabeth Holmes, who started Theranos when she was 19 and became the world’s youngest female billionaire before it all came crashing down

But in 2014, the billion-dollar company and its CEO, Elizabeth Holmes, were on top of the world. Back then, Theranos was a revolutionary idea thought up by a woman hailed as a genius who styled herself as a female Steve Jobs. Holmes was the world’s youngest female self-made billionaire, and Theranos was one Silicon Valley’s unicorn

Theranos and Holmes were charged with massive fraud, and the company was forced to close its labs and testing centres.

This is how Holmes went from precocious child to ambitious Stanford dropout to embattled startup CEO.

Theranos’s business model was based around the idea that it ran blood tests using proprietary technology that required only pinprick in your finger and a small amount of blood. Holmes said the tests would be able to detect medical conditions like cancer and high cholesterol.

Holmes took investors’ money on the condition that she wouldn’t have reveal how Theranos’ technology worked. That obsession with secrecy extended to every aspect of Theranos. For the first decade Holmes spent building her company, Theranos operated in stealth mode. She even took three former Theranos employees to court, claiming they had misused Theranos trade secrets. Holmes’ attitude toward secrecy was borrowed from a Silicon Valley hero of hers: Steve Jobs. Holmes started wearing black turtlenecks like Jobs, decorated her office with his favourite furniture, and like Jobs, never took vacations. Holmes dropped out of Stanford at age 19, she had been dating Theranos president and COO Sunny Balwani, who was 20 years her senior. The pair broke up in spring 2016 when Holmes pushed him out of the company.

By August 2015, the FDA began investigating Theranos, and regulators from the government body that oversees laboratories found “major inaccuracies” in the testing Theranos was doing on patients. Carreyrou’s reporting sparked the beginning of the company’s downward spiral.

Holmes appeared on CNBC’s “Mad Money” to defend herself and her company. “This is what happens when you work to change things, and first they think you’re crazy, then they fight you, and then all of a sudden you change the world,” Holmes said.

this justaflu has totally low influenza-like rates of heart complications

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/fit-healthy-young-struck-down-with-covid-linked-disease-mis-c/12332340

The UK have overtaken Spain now to be the country with most cases in Europe (not counting Russia). They already have a third more deaths than Spain. India looks set to top the top 5 within the next couple of days.

party_pants said:

The UK have overtaken Spain now to be the country with most cases in Europe (not counting Russia). They already have a third more deaths than Spain. India looks set to top the top 5 within the next couple of days.

Latin America and the Indian subcontinent seem to be on the big up.

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

SCIENCE said:

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

Slowest State = safest State.

Tamb said:

SCIENCE said:

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

Slowest State = safest State.

^

SCIENCE said:

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

I don’t wish to appear rude but I fear it may be unavoidable. Mr Peters can go fuck himself and the horse he rode in on.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

I don’t wish to appear rude but I fear it may be unavoidable. Mr Peters can go fuck himself and the horse he rode in on.

As was said, pressure is mounting. ;)

roughbarked said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

Name Calling Across The Sea

New Zealand’s Deputy PM says internal borders in Australia are delaying trans-Tasman travel

Winston Peters says he does not want the plans to be held up by the “slowest state in Australia”

Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to have a travel bubble by the winter school holidays

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

Pardon, we think you’ll find that the states slowest to lift sensible restrictions are the ones furthest ahead in elimination of COVID-19…

I don’t wish to appear rude but I fear it may be unavoidable. Mr Peters can go fuck himself and the horse he rode in on.

As was said, pressure is mounting. ;)

That’s what you do with horses. Mount them.

Tamb said:

roughbarked said:

party_pants said:

I don’t wish to appear rude but I fear it may be unavoidable. Mr Peters can go fuck himself and the horse he rode in on.

As was said, pressure is mounting. ;)

That’s what you do with horses. Mount them.

We know we’ve thrown Johnny into the mix in earlier threads but it seems as appropriate now as ever.

Pressure Down

Set the wheels in motion, and watch them turning round
I want to sail across the ocean, I’ve grown weary of this town

Take the pressure down
Cause I can feel it, it’s rising like a storm
Take hold of the wheels and turn them around
Take the pressure down

In this city full of danger, we lead our separate lives
And I was frightened by a stranger, with desperation in her eyes

Someone turned the pressure on
I called your name and you were gone
And I was trapped like a prisoner in this lonely town
I’m gonna let things slide, until the pressure comes down

Oh the winner tells his story, the loser hides in shame
The winner steals the glory, while the loser takes the pain

Tamb said:

roughbarked said:

party_pants said:

I don’t wish to appear rude but I fear it may be unavoidable. Mr Peters can go fuck himself and the horse he rode in on.

As was said, pressure is mounting. ;)

That’s what you do with horses. Mount them.

I just fucking said that.

ABC News:

‘A NSW Health physician says the department decided not to wait for COVID-19 swab results before allowing the Ruby Princess to disembark because passengers needed to catch flights.’

So, if you’ve been infected by a Ruby Princess passenger (hopefully you’re not dead as result), you’ll be pleased to know that the person who infected you was not inconvenienced.

That includes the parents of the wife of the Assistant Minister for Defence, and the contingent from the PM’s and Asst Defenc Minister’s happy-clappy church.

It would have been inhuman to disrupt their travel plans.

roughbarked said:

Tamb said:

roughbarked said:

As was said, pressure is mounting. ;)

That’s what you do with horses. Mount them.

I just fucking said that.

Where mounting = fucking??

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘A NSW Health physician says the department decided not to wait for COVID-19 swab results before allowing the Ruby Princess to disembark because passengers needed to catch flights.’

So, if you’ve been infected by a Ruby Princess passenger (hopefully you’re not dead as result), you’ll be pleased to know that the person who infected you was not inconvenienced.

That includes the parents of the wife of the Assistant Minister for Defence, and the contingent from the PM’s and Asst Defenc Minister’s happy-clappy church.

It would have been inhuman to disrupt their travel plans.

notwithstanding what happens if potentially infected passengers then go on to catch flights, hey hey

Tamb said:

roughbarked said:

Tamb said:

That’s what you do with horses. Mount them.

I just fucking said that.

Where mounting = fucking??

If you see it that way.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘A NSW Health physician says the department decided not to wait for COVID-19 swab results before allowing the Ruby Princess to disembark because passengers needed to catch flights.’

So, if you’ve been infected by a Ruby Princess passenger (hopefully you’re not dead as result), you’ll be pleased to know that the person who infected you was not inconvenienced.

That includes the parents of the wife of the Assistant Minister for Defence, and the contingent from the PM’s and Asst Defenc Minister’s happy-clappy church.

It would have been inhuman to disrupt their travel plans.

Especially considering it really only affects the codgers and prediseased.

SCIENCE said:

West Taiwanese mouthpiece, WHO, insists that only True Scotsmen can be trusted not to spread COVID-19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/coronavirus-spread-by-asymtomatic-people-rare-no-symptoms-who/12336346

The spread of coronavirus by those who do not show any symptoms appears to be “very rare”, says a World Health Organization official. Data from countries with advanced contract tracing measures seem to show the highly contagious virus is not being spread by those who are asymptomatic, according to WHO epidemiologist Maria van Kerkhove.

She said some cases recorded as asymptomatic are actually mild forms of the disease. “When we go back and see how many of them were truly asymptomatic, we find many have really mild disease,” she said. “They’re not ‘COVID’ symptoms, meaning they may not have developed a fever yet, may not have a significant cough or shortness of breath.

“Having said that, we know there can be people who are truly asymptomatic.”

So, what is it, asymptomatic ¿ atypisymptomatic ¿ presymptomatic ¿ insignifisymptomatic ? If you don’t know in advance whether you’re just too early to have symptoms, or you will actually never have any symptoms, what’s the safe thing to do?

Even Truth Spreads Less Easily Than COVID-19

WHO expert cites ‘misunderstanding’ after saying asymptomatic transmission ‘very rare’

Ms Van Kerkhove cited “some estimates” that found between 6 and 40 per cent of transmissions may be due to asymptomatic infections

“I used the phrase ‘very rare’ and I think that it’s a misunderstanding to state the asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare,” Ms Van Kerkhove said.

There we go, didn’t they say it eh, what is it, asymptomatic ¿ atypisymptomatic ¿ presymptomatic ¿ insignifisymptomatic ? If you don’t know in advance whether you’re just too early to have symptoms, or you will actually never have any symptoms, what’s the safe thing to do?

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Witty Rejoinder said:

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

Michael V said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

Many empty nursing homes …

poikilotherm said:

Michael V said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

Many empty nursing homes …

give this shit a break.

Passed another person who tried to give me a cold today. A 20ish talking on a mobile phone hanging about at a street corner.

poikilotherm said:

Michael V said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

Many empty nursing homes …

Quite likely.

Michael V said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Bergamo, Italy, is near herd immunity level

By Nick Squires
June 10, 2020 — 3.29pm

Rome: More than half of people in the epicentre of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak have been infected, and the region has the highest rate of antibodies yet discovered, a study has found.

The city of Bergamo and its surrounding province were hit hard after the virus was first detected in the country in late February, although the virus is believed to have been present in the region since at least January.

Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.
Local newspaper Eco di Bergamo ran pages and pages of obituaries as the crisis worsened in northern Italy.CREDIT:AP

Blood tests carried out on more than 20,000 people in the area between April 23 and June 3 now reveal that 57 per cent had COVID-19 antibodies. Among medical staff, it is 30 per cent.

Read More:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bergamo-italy-is-near-herd-immunity-level-20200610-p551b2.html

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

and whether it will actually prevent another “wave”

Bogsnorkler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/surgisphere-sapan-desai-lancet-study-hydroxychloroquine-mass-audit-scientific-papers

so more fake scientists giving Real Scientists a bad name eh

never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal

SCIENCE said:

Bogsnorkler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/surgisphere-sapan-desai-lancet-study-hydroxychloroquine-mass-audit-scientific-papers

so more fake scientists giving Real Scientists a bad name eh

never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal

Lancet has a bit of form

dv said:

SCIENCE said:

Bogsnorkler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/surgisphere-sapan-desai-lancet-study-hydroxychloroquine-mass-audit-scientific-papers

so more fake scientists giving Real Scientists a bad name eh

never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal

Lancet has a bit of form

MMmmmmR

dv said:

SCIENCE said:

Bogsnorkler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/surgisphere-sapan-desai-lancet-study-hydroxychloroquine-mass-audit-scientific-papers

so more fake scientists giving Real Scientists a bad name eh

never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal

Lancet has a bit of form

it is getting to be the new scientist of the journals.

Bogsnorkler said:

dv said:

SCIENCE said:

so more fake scientists giving Real Scientists a bad name eh

never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal

Lancet has a bit of form

it is getting to be the new scientist of the journals.

It’s quite a woke field of research this virology – immunology business¿

Bogsnorkler said:

poikilotherm said:

Michael V said:

Gosh. I wonder what cost in terms of deaths?

Many empty nursing homes …

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

poikilotherm said:

Bogsnorkler said:

poikilotherm said:

Many empty nursing homes …

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

lucky all those nurses now have a job looking after the young uns in hospitals instead

poikilotherm said:

Bogsnorkler said:

poikilotherm said:

Many empty nursing homes …

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

Bogsnorkler said:

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Just the ‘oldies’.

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

Bogsnorkler said:

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Don’t get covid eh.

sibeen said:

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Just the ‘oldies’.

but it isn’t, that is the point. plus us oldies have an excuse to die, what are those youngsters doing clogging up ICU wards etc? Plus poik sounds like a broken record just repeating this just oldies tripe.

poikilotherm said:

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Don’t get covid eh.

Not all elderly who get it die, you know…

I did a death notice check today and the over 90s here are popping off. Two of them were mine, a 97er and a 98er in the last week. The other record I pulled out was for an 88er. It must be Winter again.

Bogsnorkler said:

sibeen said:

Bubblecar said:

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Just the ‘oldies’.

but it isn’t, that is the point. plus us oldies have an excuse to die, what are those youngsters doing clogging up ICU wards etc? Plus poik sounds like a broken record just repeating this just oldies tripe.

I never said younger cohorts didn’t get hospitalised etc.

poikilotherm said:

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

Don’t get covid eh.

I don’t intend to.

OK then…I looked for lab confirmed flu stats.

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi

You know about statistics…well…this talks about how many fewer we are compared to 2019. But…looking at the graph, 2019 looks to me like it was an outlier year, ie many, many more cases. Comparing to 2016/17/18 it’s down, but nowhere near as dramatically. Was there some sort of “let’s test lots and see how many we can find” thing going on last year for flu?

buffy said:

OK then…I looked for lab confirmed flu stats.

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi

You know about statistics…well…this talks about how many fewer we are compared to 2019. But…looking at the graph, 2019 looks to me like it was an outlier year, ie many, many more cases. Comparing to 2016/17/18 it’s down, but nowhere near as dramatically. Was there some sort of “let’s test lots and see how many we can find” thing going on last year for flu?

No.

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

Bogsnorkler said:

give this shit a break.

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

according to ny spreadsheet. average age of those who answered is 56.81

Arts said:

Bubblecar said:

poikilotherm said:

covid did it not me…

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

according to ny spreadsheet. average age of those who answered is 56.81

As per normal I’m above average.

buffs nails on shirt

sibeen said:

Arts said:

Bubblecar said:

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

according to ny spreadsheet. average age of those who answered is 56.81

As per normal I’m above average.

buffs nails on shirt

wasn’t your clock reset?

sibeen said:

Arts said:

Bubblecar said:

Bear in mind that many members of this forum are in the 60-69 bracket, and a few are in the 70-79.

according to ny spreadsheet. average age of those who answered is 56.81

As per normal I’m above average.

buffs nails on shirt

I only have 37 data points… and one of them was stumpy.

Arts said:

sibeen said:

Arts said:

according to ny spreadsheet. average age of those who answered is 56.81

As per normal I’m above average.

buffs nails on shirt

I only have 37 data points… and one of them was stumpy.

actually It looks like I included him in the last average.. so without him (since he didn’t age) the average age now is 57.36. so you are slightly less above average than you think

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/ruby-princess-coronavirus-nsw-health-review-savaged-as-spin/12341468

https://www.rubyprincessinquiry.nsw.gov.au/assets/scirp/files/Exhibit-35.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/second-u-s-virus-wave-emerges-after-state-reopenings?

Witty Rejoinder said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/second-u-s-virus-wave-emerges-after-state-reopenings?

bit of a surge in some southern states

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

SCIENCE said:

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

What’s the USSR total now?

dv said:

SCIENCE said:

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

What’s the USSR total now?

SCIENCE said:

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

Using the term USSR is deeply offensive to the people of the Baltic states and the Stans.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

Using the term USSR is deeply offensive to the people of the Baltic states and the Stans.

well OK we didn’t add it up so they might actually have been first but we honestly thought in aggregate they were behind no matter how soyuz or unsoyuz they’re

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

Brazil and USSR were catching up, and India still held potential.

Using the term USSR is deeply offensive to the people of the Baltic states and the Stans.

well OK we didn’t add it up so they might actually have been first but we honestly thought in aggregate they were behind no matter how soyuz or unsoyuz they’re

Typical

WTF is going on though, we thought they had this community (local source unknown) transmission thing sorted, damn they are not getting a handle on this ¿

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Or is it another case of that QLDer fella, do enough testing and you’ll get a good load of false positives ¿

SCIENCE said:

WTF is going on though, we thought they had this community (local source unknown) transmission thing sorted, damn they are not getting a handle on this ¿

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Or is it another case of that QLDer fella, do enough testing and you’ll get a good load of false positives ¿

No, he was a plant by the government. Sent in with a covid safe app operating with instructions to wander around. Now that he is “positive”, they can get the names and numbers of all the people who attended the protest…

furious said:

SCIENCE said:

WTF is going on though, we thought they had this community (local source unknown) transmission thing sorted, damn they are not getting a handle on this ¿

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Or is it another case of that QLDer fella, do enough testing and you’ll get a good load of false positives ¿

No, he was a plant by the government. Sent in with a covid safe app operating with instructions to wander around. Now that he is “positive”, they can get the names and numbers of all the people who attended the protest…

They wouldn’t need a plant for that.

party_pants said:

furious said:

SCIENCE said:

WTF is going on though, we thought they had this community (local source unknown) transmission thing sorted, damn they are not getting a handle on this ¿

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Or is it another case of that QLDer fella, do enough testing and you’ll get a good load of false positives ¿

No, he was a plant by the government. Sent in with a covid safe app operating with instructions to wander around. Now that he is “positive”, they can get the names and numbers of all the people who attended the protest…

They wouldn’t need a plant for that.

To do it “legally” the only way they can access the data in the app is from a positive test and the person allowing access. I was also only putting that out there for purposes of conspiracy. Our government would never do anything like that…

party_pants said:

furious said:

SCIENCE said:

WTF is going on though, we thought they had this community (local source unknown) transmission thing sorted, damn they are not getting a handle on this ¿

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Or is it another case of that QLDer fella, do enough testing and you’ll get a good load of false positives ¿

No, he was a plant by the government. Sent in with a covid safe app operating with instructions to wander around. Now that he is “positive”, they can get the names and numbers of all the people who attended the protest…

They wouldn’t need a plant for that.

If they had a plant they’d only smoke it.

Tamb said:

party_pants said:

furious said:

No, he was a plant by the government. Sent in with a covid safe app operating with instructions to wander around. Now that he is “positive”, they can get the names and numbers of all the people who attended the protest…

They wouldn’t need a plant for that.

If they had a plant they’d only smoke it.

on a roll there

Although I’m glad the 7 point smoother is back, it’s not as good as the previous version which used a window-centred x location. ie the dot point for 10/5 to 16/5 was placed on 13/5.

Now they use a window-trailing version, so that dot point is placed on 16/5.

Four hundred thousand deaths for every seven million infections is not a bad strike rate.

>>In May, Victoria announced that one potential exposure had been picked up by the app that manual contact tracers did not locate, but further investigation later found the interaction did not meet the close contact criteria.<<

From: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-11/coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-covid-safe-no-close-contacts/12343138

I don’t understand this. It should only report within 1.5m for >15minutes, shouldn’t it? I thought that was what it was doing. So how can an “interaction” not meeting the criteria have even been recorded?

buffy said:

>>In May, Victoria announced that one potential exposure had been picked up by the app that manual contact tracers did not locate, but further investigation later found the interaction did not meet the close contact criteria.<<

From: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-11/coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-covid-safe-no-close-contacts/12343138

I don’t understand this. It should only report within 1.5m for >15minutes, shouldn’t it? I thought that was what it was doing. So how can an “interaction” not meeting the criteria have even been recorded?

Perhaps they were in different rooms? Different carriages of a train?

(guessing)

BLM protester tests positive for COVID

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/victorian-black-lives-matter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Oo aa, Iran may have passed second peak in new cases on 4 June.
Peru may have passed first peak.
Brazil may be approaching peak.
India new cases still well on the rise.

From Iran,

“It wasn’t until after my sister’s passing and the South Coast fires took off after that, that I began to see in the media that people were being recommended to wear P2 masks and to stay inside and to activate air filters if they had access to them.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/lack-of-air-quality-monitoring-sparks-concerns-inquiry-told/12340894

Imagine if we’d all taken heed, and industry had woken up, and P2/N95 masks had been on the production line, and then an airborne-spreading virus came along which could be prevented in large part by the wearing of said masks, imagine that!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-11/coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-covid-safe-no-close-contacts/12343138

Maybe the correct comparison is more, if the were no manual contact tracers then how would it have performed ¿

LELYSTAD, THE NETHERLANDS—In a sad sideshow to the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities in the Netherlands began to gas tens of thousands of mink on 6 June, most of them pups born only weeks ago. SARS-CoV-2 has attacked farms that raise the animals for fur, and the Dutch government worries infected mink could become a viral reservoir that could cause new outbreaks in humans.

The mink outbreaks are “spillover” from the human pandemic—a zoonosis in reverse that has offered scientists in the Netherlands a unique chance to study how the virus jumps between species and burns through large animal populations.

But they’re also a public health problem. Genetic and epidemiological sleuthing has shown that at least two farm workers have caught the virus from mink—the only patients anywhere known to have become infected by animals.

more..
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections

US coronavirus cases hit 2 million as infection rate rises slightly

After five weeks of declines, coronavirus infection rates are growing in the US

Recent increases in cases are likely a result of more people moving about and resuming some business and pleasure activities as all 50 states gradually reopen.

On May 12, the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, the rate of people testing positive for the coronavirus should remain at 5 per cent or lower for at least 14 days.

US rates of positive test results have fluctuated between 4 per cent and 7 per cent nationally and have not met those guidelines, although many individual states have.

At the peak of the outbreak in April, 25 to 50 per cent of tests came back positive.

I don’t get these numbers but..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/11/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases

sarahs mum said:

I don’t get these numbers but..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/11/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases

In what sense?

dv said:

sarahs mum said:

I don’t get these numbers but..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/11/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases

In what sense?

the numbers didn’t seem to add up.

sarahs mum said:

dv said:

sarahs mum said:

I don’t get these numbers but..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/11/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases

In what sense?

the numbers didn’t seem to add up.

dv said:

sarahs mum said:

dv said:

In what sense?

the numbers didn’t seem to add up.

Right. sorry. It’s there if you follow the liink.

From the relevant to the bizarre. I was trying to remember what chemical agent was used to kill bacteria and viruses and figured it could be the same as that used to preserve marine specimens in jars. Turns out it was, I was trying to remember the word “formalin”..

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/additives.htm
Formaldehyde – To kill viruses and inactivate toxins during the manufacturing process.
“Formaldehyde is used to inactivate bacterial products for toxoid vaccines, (these are vaccines that use an inactive bacterial toxin to produce immunity.) It is also used to kill unwanted viruses and bacteria that might contaminate the vaccine during production.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formaldehyde#Niche_uses
An aqueous solution of formaldehyde can be useful as a disinfectant as it kills most bacteria and fungi (including their spores). It is used to kill produced vaccines. Formaldehyde preserves or fixes tissue or cells. The process involves cross-linking of primary amino groups. Embalming corpses. Linking RNA to protein.

Formalin: A 37% solution of formaldehyde. A typical commercial grade formalin may contain 10–12% methanol.

http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/964/1/The_preservation_of_contractile_marine_animals_in_an_expanded_condition.pdf
Mentions formalin. But also:

“The commonest method for the present purpose is the use of narcotics.The most familiar of these are menthol, chloral hydrate, alcohol, magnesium sulphate and cocaine.”

‘ello ‘ello, why are you carrying a kilogram of cocaine? I’m using it to preserve marine invertebrates, officer.

Back on track. I’m not entirely sure that cross-linking amino acids in proteins is the best way create a genetic key for antibody stimulation, but I can’t think of a better one.

The various ways COVID-19 attacks the body:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/06/how-sars-cov-2-causes-disease-and-death-in-covid-19?

Yesterday was the worst day on record in terms of new cases, globally, with 136757 cases logged according to worldometer.

dv said:

Yesterday was the worst day on record in terms of new cases, globally, with 136757 cases logged according to worldometer.

wow.

dv said:

Yesterday was the worst day on record in terms of new cases, globally, with 136757 cases logged according to worldometer.

Yeah, some poor(ish) and populous countries are getting into the upswing of their first wave now.

washes hands

Will the government look at JobSeeker payments for the protesters

Matthias Cormann said it would be “worthwhile” having a conversation about whether Australians on JobSeeker should have their payments docked if they attend any upcoming protests.

The PM’s response was pretty blunt.

“We won’t do that.”

He then elaborated, saying issuing fines

“The reason is, enforcement of these matters is for the state and territory governments. And so they will apply their fines and their laws on these issues in those jurisdictions.

“They are dealing with those gatherings in those state laws and state restrictions are a matter for state and territory governments, not the Federal Government.”

SCIENCE said:

washes hands

Will the government look at JobSeeker payments for the protesters

Matthias Cormann said it would be “worthwhile” having a conversation about whether Australians on JobSeeker should have their payments docked if they attend any upcoming protests.

The PM’s response was pretty blunt.

“We won’t do that.”

He then elaborated, saying issuing fines

“The reason is, enforcement of these matters is for the state and territory governments. And so they will apply their fines and their laws on these issues in those jurisdictions.

“They are dealing with those gatherings in those state laws and state restrictions are a matter for state and territory governments, not the Federal Government.”

Yeah, like letting people off the Grubby Princess without quarantine was a ‘matter for the state govt., not federal’.

‘Hello, Gladys, do you have any dreams of moving into Federal politics? Well, dear, they’ll never be more than dreams if you don’t let my wife’s parents and my fellow churchgoers off the boat – without hindrance.’

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

washes hands

Will the government look at JobSeeker payments for the protesters

Matthias Cormann said it would be “worthwhile” having a conversation about whether Australians on JobSeeker should have their payments docked if they attend any upcoming protests.

The PM’s response was pretty blunt.

“We won’t do that.”

He then elaborated, saying issuing fines

“The reason is, enforcement of these matters is for the state and territory governments. And so they will apply their fines and their laws on these issues in those jurisdictions.

“They are dealing with those gatherings in those state laws and state restrictions are a matter for state and territory governments, not the Federal Government.”

Yeah, like letting people off the Grubby Princess without quarantine was a ‘matter for the state govt., not federal’.

‘Hello, Gladys, do you have any dreams of moving into Federal politics? Well, dear, they’ll never be more than dreams if you don’t let my wife’s parents and my fellow churchgoers off the boat – without hindrance.’

There you go. It had to be said…

Have we reached peak Corona Virus ?

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have we reached peak Corona Virus ?

Y’All know its been six months since China shared Covid 19 with the rest of the world.

Time flies.

Maybe another 2 / 3 months until peak Corona ?

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have we reached peak Corona Virus ?

No.

Unless we are talking about NSW.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have we reached peak Corona Virus ?

Y’All know its been six months since China shared Covid 19 with the rest of the world.

Time flies.

Maybe another 2 / 3 months until peak Corona ?

No active cases in Tasmania now and it’s 27 days since our last new case.

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

Rule 303 said:

This seems pretty unlikely as a transmission vector, but I guess it’s possible:

This Week in Asia said:

A church in South Korea sprayed salt water inside the mouths of followers out of a false belief it would help prevent the spread of the coronavirus, but by using the same spray bottle without disinfecting the nozzle, it resulted in 46 church-goers infected, authorities said on Monday.

(on-line article from 16/3/20)

I don’t see that as an unlikely transmission vector. Why do you?

The need to inhale droplets carrying the infection, mostly, or introduce it to the body through an ‘open’ (to the bloodstream) site. Unless the mouth or upper GI has cuts or open sores, it should be a lot harder to transmit through a liquid in the mouth.

(Exploits Cunningham’s Law and clicks Submit)

we thought authorities were saying that anything that aerosolises is risky

SCIENCE said:

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

I don’t see that as an unlikely transmission vector. Why do you?

The need to inhale droplets carrying the infection, mostly, or introduce it to the body through an ‘open’ (to the bloodstream) site. Unless the mouth or upper GI has cuts or open sores, it should be a lot harder to transmit through a liquid in the mouth.

(Exploits Cunningham’s Law and clicks Submit)

we thought authorities were saying that anything that aerosolises is risky

My impression of the article is they’re saying the nozzle of the squirt bottle spread the virus to 46 people because it was placed in one person’s mouth and then sprayed into others.

Rule 303 said:

SCIENCE said:

Rule 303 said:

The need to inhale droplets carrying the infection, mostly, or introduce it to the body through an ‘open’ (to the bloodstream) site. Unless the mouth or upper GI has cuts or open sores, it should be a lot harder to transmit through a liquid in the mouth.

(Exploits Cunningham’s Law and clicks Submit)

we thought authorities were saying that anything that aerosolises is risky

My impression of the article is they’re saying the nozzle of the squirt bottle spread the virus to 46 people because it was placed in one person’s mouth and then sprayed into others.

This would be like eye drops. As long as the dropper tip does not contact a mucous membrane it won’t pick up greeblies. So if it was open mouth, spray from outside, it’s unlikely to contaminate. But if it touches a person, it would need the spray nozzle to be decontaminated.

buffy said:

Rule 303 said:

SCIENCE said:

we thought authorities were saying that anything that aerosolises is risky

My impression of the article is they’re saying the nozzle of the squirt bottle spread the virus to 46 people because it was placed in one person’s mouth and then sprayed into others.

This would be like eye drops. As long as the dropper tip does not contact a mucous membrane it won’t pick up greeblies. So if it was open mouth, spray from outside, it’s unlikely to contaminate. But if it touches a person, it would need the spray nozzle to be decontaminated.

SCIENCE said:

Rule 303 said:

Michael V said:

I don’t see that as an unlikely transmission vector. Why do you?

The need to inhale droplets carrying the infection, mostly, or introduce it to the body through an ‘open’ (to the bloodstream) site. Unless the mouth or upper GI has cuts or open sores, it should be a lot harder to transmit through a liquid in the mouth.

(Exploits Cunningham’s Law and clicks Submit)

we thought authorities were saying that anything that aerosolises is risky

Believe it or not, I hadn’t heard of Cunningham’s Law.

I think I approve of it, although I think we need to be aware of the circumstances where it just isn’t going to work.

Trying a new tack on mortality.

Last time I did a complete world summary was 19 April, with a minority of those countries updates since.
I have no wish to manually type in all the data since then.
And other countries have moved into the table since then.

So I’m going to try just today and some 5 to 10 days from now, to see if I can get an approximate world round-up. And in the process expand my list of countries with estimated mortalities by seventeen up to forty eight.

Lower limits on mortality for today are as follows. Actual mortalities tend to be about 1.13 times the “Lower Mortality”.

Accounts of candiru attacks on humans aren’t a recent development. They can be traced back to the 19th and early 20th centuries. The gist of these stories is that the fish is attracted by human urine in the water. When someone urinates in the water, according to these stories, the fish swims into and lodges itself in the urethra of the unsuspecting individual. Once inside, the fish uses the spines on its gill covers to hold itself in place, which is painful and makes removal difficult.

Over the years, more extreme tales of the candiru fish have emerged. Some of these claim that the fish:

• can jump up out of the water and swim up a stream of urine
• lays eggs in the bladder
• eats away at the mucous membranes of its host, eventually killing them
• can only be removed through surgical methods, which may include penis amputation

—

in seriousness though, we weren’t there so maybe the article authors know something we don’t, but presumably a spray bottle (note: spray) is more likely to disperse infective droplets than a simple drip-dropper

(of course, in our claimed mechanism, whether the nozzle is disinfected probably made little* difference, but equally a line reading “… out of a false belief it would help prevent the spread of the coronavirus, but by using any number of spray bottles without smearing ultraviolet-treated hydroxychloroquine on the base of the bottle, it resulted in 46 church-goers infected” is still entirely comprehensible)

*: maybe, maybe not, as circulating droplets may deposit on the nozzle and then be sprayed off again…

How supermarkets cooperated together during panic buying

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/inside-story-how-woolworths-and-coles-joined-forces-to-avert-covid-19-disaster-20200611-p551lk.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-13/coronavirus-and-travel-limit-to-government-help-for-australians/12243788

First, what’s this about the registration scheme?

This was the long-running system that let you log your itinerary with the Government’s Smartraveller program. The idea was that if a crisis arose where you were travelling — natural disaster, political instability etc — the Government would know you were there, get in touch and possibly organise help.

It was a handy way for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) to keep track of where Australians were, and for years passports included a note encouraging people to register. Future passports won’t include reference to the Smartraveller registration.

That program ended on November 21 last year. This coincides with what are now the first known cases of COVID-19, suspected by many to have been planted in an Asian wet market by Five Eyes agents. In contrast, the first official report of an emerging zoonotic disease was made on December 30, after significant delays — but still long before returning hardworking quiet Australian citizens were sent to be detained on Christmas Island.

THEY KNEW

In Melbourne, organisers have said they plan to abide by physical-distancing restrictions by hosting the protests in eight separate locations across the city

“If anyone does attend a protest, they must not gather in groups of more than 20 and must ensure they practise social distancing and good hygiene.”

https://twitter.com/rachelmcgheeabc/status/1271246024783233026

¿so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over, or is this another one of those chequered privilege moments?

SCIENCE said:

so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over,

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over,

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

Good.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/12/after-weeks-of-shortages-france-now-has-surplus-of-40-million-face-masks

After weeks of shortages, France now has surplus of 40 million face masks

French consumers are being urged to buy domestically-produced reusable face masks rather than import single-use ones, often from China.

France now has a surplus of about 40 million washable masks, textile companies are struggling financially, and face coverings are better for the environment, the industry is arguing.

400 textile companies switched their production to make face masks. That has created a significant surplus.

It called on the government to stockpile these face masks in preparation for a possible future epidemic and “in recognition of industrialists who reconverted their production at its request”.

The use of face masks is only mandatory on public transport and by teachers and pupils in secondary education. French people are however strongly encouraged to wear one in any situation where social distancing measures cannot be fully respected.

A study by Germany’s Institute of Labour Economics released earlier this week found that the number of infections in the first German city that made face masks compulsory dropped by a quarter over the first 20 days and by more than half among people aged 60 and over.

“Estimating the effects for other regions and assessing the credibility of the various estimates, the authors conclude that face masks reduce the daily growth rate of reported infections by around 40%,” it added.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over,

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

Not sure about quality control though.

Tamb said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over,

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

Not sure about quality control though.

Some face masks for sale now are definitely worse than those I made myself. They’re uncomfortable, hard to breathe through and not sealing around the edges.

The worldwide shortage of thermometers is not over, at least not over a week ago.
The thermometer I ordered in eBay in February still hasn’t arrived.
And a week ago Chemist Warehouse still had no oral thermometers in stock.

Tamb said:

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

so is the worldwide hand sanitiser and mask shortage over,

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

Not sure about quality control though.

The Aussie ones are top notch, the Chinese ones are still shit :)

mollwollfumble said:

Tamb said:

party_pants said:

Yes. Production has been well and truly ramped up.

Not sure about quality control though.

Some face masks for sale now are definitely worse than those I made myself. They’re uncomfortable, hard to breathe through and not sealing around the edges.

The worldwide shortage of thermometers is not over, at least not over a week ago.
The thermometer I ordered in eBay in February still hasn’t arrived.
And a week ago Chemist Warehouse still had no oral thermometers in stock.

A big chemist in Atherton had oral thermometers for sale $15.

Tamb said:

mollwollfumble said:

Tamb said:

Not sure about quality control though.

Some face masks for sale now are definitely worse than those I made myself. They’re uncomfortable, hard to breathe through and not sealing around the edges.

The worldwide shortage of thermometers is not over, at least not over a week ago.
The thermometer I ordered in eBay in February still hasn’t arrived.
And a week ago Chemist Warehouse still had no oral thermometers in stock.

A big chemist in Atherton had oral thermometers for sale $15.

Ello ello! I just got an email from the seller I brought the oral thermometer from asking if I’d received it.
I haven’t been forgotten. Yippee!
The seller is Australian. So perhaps oral thermometers have just recently arrived in Australia.

The purchase date was 21 Mar 2020 with estimated delivery 3 Apr to 1 May. So nearly 3 months for delivery.

mollwollfumble said:

Tamb said:

mollwollfumble said:

Some face masks for sale now are definitely worse than those I made myself. They’re uncomfortable, hard to breathe through and not sealing around the edges.

The worldwide shortage of thermometers is not over, at least not over a week ago.
The thermometer I ordered in eBay in February still hasn’t arrived.
And a week ago Chemist Warehouse still had no oral thermometers in stock.

A big chemist in Atherton had oral thermometers for sale $15.

Ello ello! I just got an email from the seller I brought the oral thermometer from asking if I’d received it.
I haven’t been forgotten. Yippee!
The seller is Australian. So perhaps oral thermometers have just recently arrived in Australia.

The purchase date was 21 Mar 2020 with estimated delivery 3 Apr to 1 May. So nearly 3 months for delivery.

wait, you paid $3 for that? if it lasts more than a month I’ll be impressed.

Arts said:

mollwollfumble said:

Tamb said:

A big chemist in Atherton had oral thermometers for sale $15.

Ello ello! I just got an email from the seller I brought the oral thermometer from asking if I’d received it.
I haven’t been forgotten. Yippee!
The seller is Australian. So perhaps oral thermometers have just recently arrived in Australia.

The purchase date was 21 Mar 2020 with estimated delivery 3 Apr to 1 May. So nearly 3 months for delivery.

wait, you paid $3 for that? if it lasts more than a month I’ll be impressed.

:-) That’s really why I wasn’t hugely concerned when it didn’t turn up on time.

I’ll let you know how it goes, in a month.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-13/victoria-records-eight-new-coronavirus-cases-including-doctor/12352210

Victoria has recorded eight new coronavirus infections since yesterday, including a doctor who worked across three clinics in Melbourne while potentially infectious. The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) said the doctor had worked at Lilydale Medical Clinic, Croydon Family Practice and Cedars Medical Clinic in Coburg while asymptomatic.

Six of the new cases were detected in mandatory hotel quarantine, while the other one person is a household contact linked to an outbreak at the Rydges on Swanston hotel cluster.

The much larger Black Lives Matter rally held in Melbourne’s CBD a week earlier is linked to one COVID-19 infection, but authorities warned it could be up to two weeks before the impact on the spread of the virus is known.

SCIENCE said:

The much larger Black Lives Matter rally held in Melbourne’s CBD a week earlier is linked to one COVID-19 infection, but authorities warned it could be up to two weeks before the impact on the spread of the virus is known.

Are the authorities making similar predictions for shopping centres? Because they’re full of people who aren’t wearing masks, aren’t social distancing, aren’t sanitising their hands, but are indoors, sharing recirculated air conditioning, touching lots of common surfaces, in numbers a hundred times bigger than the rally, every single day.

Just saying.

Official covid-19 death tolls still under-count the true number of fatalities

http://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?

Well we could look at the good news, that Australia’s coronavirus lockdown measures have been widely credited with preventing the catastrophic infection rates and death tolls seen in other parts of the world. But could they be having an even greater impact than we realise? Health authorities say social distancing, travel bans and other guidelines have also led to a dramatic drop in seasonal influenza cases and deaths. “It may have, up to this point, saved more people than it’s actually killed, and certainly the response to COVID has actually saved a lot of people,” he said. “The only proviso to that is that it is possible that we may have actually delayed an outbreak.

“The mechanism of spread of influenza is essentially the same as that of COVID, and that is droplet spread,” he said. “By applying the physical distancing, the restrictions … closed down the transmission of influenza at the same time.” Dr Moy said a high vaccination uptake this year was potentially another factor in keeping flu rates low, and had contributed to a “level of herd immunity”. “We’ve had record numbers of vaccinations at an early stage, which has partly been due to the urgings of the providers and health authorities like ourselves,” he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-13/flu-cases-drop-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-statistics-show/12332204

Boris Johnson ‘scrapped Cabinet pandemic committee six months before coronavirus hit UK’

Boris Johnson scrapped a team of senior ministers charged with preparing the country for a pandemic six months before the outbreak of coronavirus in the UK, according to a report.

According to the Daily Mail, the group – called the Threats, Hazards, Resilience and Contingency Committee (THRCC) – was suspended by former prime minister Theresa May on the advice of Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill so that civil servants and ministers could focus on Brexit.

The Government committee, which included Cabinet ministers such as Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, Michael Gove and Gavin Williamson, was abolished by Mr Johnson a few days after he entered Downing Street. The committee was axed without discussing virus control plans.

On Friday night, a former Cabinet minister – who was a member of THRCC – told the Mail that it could have helped to Government to respond more quickly to the virus. 

“Once the pandemic took hold in Italy… alarm bells would have been ringing,” the former minister said. “We would have stress-tested the Government’s contingency plans for dealing with a pandemic.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/13/boris-johnson-scrapped-cabinet-pandemic-committee-six-months/

Yeah that’d be about right

dv said:

Boris Johnson ‘scrapped Cabinet pandemic committee six months before coronavirus hit UK’

Boris Johnson scrapped a team of senior ministers charged with preparing the country for a pandemic six months before the outbreak of coronavirus in the UK, according to a report.

According to the Daily Mail, the group – called the Threats, Hazards, Resilience and Contingency Committee (THRCC) – was suspended by former prime minister Theresa May on the advice of Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill so that civil servants and ministers could focus on Brexit.

The Government committee, which included Cabinet ministers such as Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, Michael Gove and Gavin Williamson, was abolished by Mr Johnson a few days after he entered Downing Street. The committee was axed without discussing virus control plans.

On Friday night, a former Cabinet minister – who was a member of THRCC – told the Mail that it could have helped to Government to respond more quickly to the virus. 

“Once the pandemic took hold in Italy… alarm bells would have been ringing,” the former minister said. “We would have stress-tested the Government’s contingency plans for dealing with a pandemic.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/13/boris-johnson-scrapped-cabinet-pandemic-committee-six-months/

Yeah that’d be about right

Root cause?

Didn’t DJT do similar?

Michael V said:

dv said:

Boris Johnson ‘scrapped Cabinet pandemic committee six months before coronavirus hit UK’

Boris Johnson scrapped a team of senior ministers charged with preparing the country for a pandemic six months before the outbreak of coronavirus in the UK, according to a report.

According to the Daily Mail, the group – called the Threats, Hazards, Resilience and Contingency Committee (THRCC) – was suspended by former prime minister Theresa May on the advice of Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill so that civil servants and ministers could focus on Brexit.

The Government committee, which included Cabinet ministers such as Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, Michael Gove and Gavin Williamson, was abolished by Mr Johnson a few days after he entered Downing Street. The committee was axed without discussing virus control plans.

On Friday night, a former Cabinet minister – who was a member of THRCC – told the Mail that it could have helped to Government to respond more quickly to the virus. 

“Once the pandemic took hold in Italy… alarm bells would have been ringing,” the former minister said. “We would have stress-tested the Government’s contingency plans for dealing with a pandemic.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/13/boris-johnson-scrapped-cabinet-pandemic-committee-six-months/

Yeah that’d be about right

Root cause?

Didn’t DJT do similar?

Yep. Mop headed wannabe.

not sure we agree with everything necessarily but here it is

two new cases in two days involving overseas arrivals who had already spent 14 days in isolation

Jeannette Young said while there was “literally the occasional one case where someone has developed the infection on day 15”, quarantine rules needed to deal with “the vast majority rather than the one-off exception”. Dr Young said authorities had seen “more recently you can test positive later” but this was not an overwhelming argument to extend the quarantine period. “That would mean we would be asking enormous numbers of people to continue in quarantine for longer and longer periods which I don’t think is helpful,” she said.

• depends on how safe you want to be but whatever, have to draw the line somewhere we guess

Separately, Dr Young said it was “important” health authorities now relied on the likes of cafes and restaurants to collect customer identification information because of the failure of the Federal Government’s COVID-Safe app to achieve mass support. “Unfortunately not enough Australians downloaded the COVID-Safe app and the plan was that we would be able to use that to contact trace people,” she said. “That did not occur. Less than a quarter of Australians have downloaded that app to date so we need to go back to the more traditional method of contact tracing people.”

• show us the evidence that some hack of a piece of software can replace good old traditional contact tracing then

imagine funding health research development and

Australia has a ‘golden opportunity’ to become global medical research leader post-coronavirus, Health Minister says

Greg Hunt says Australia could become a global leader in medical research post-coronavirus

Medical research institutes say they are ready for the opportunity but need more secure funding

“Right now we are extraordinarily productive in that area given that we’re not trying to resurrect a health system that was decimated by COVID because we were able to skirt that extraordinarily well,” Professor Wesselingh said. He said one of the most important factors in growing the sector into the future would be greater investment by industry.

But Professor Carapetis said, given the economic downturn expected as a result of the pandemic, that may be more difficult than usual, exposing a “flaw” in the current funding system. “The funding we provide for medical research in this country doesn’t cover the full cost of actually doing that research,” he said.

Professor Ward also said the impact of losing revenue from international student fees “couldn’t be overstated” and would inevitably have an effect on universities’ ability to do “high-quality and internationally competitive” research. “So if we’re to realise what the Minister has put out as a challenge and an incredible opportunity we are going to have to address some of those fundamental problems in the medical research system,” Professor Carapetis said.