Coronavirus paradigm.
I’ve been struggling with this thought for over a month now. And every time I think about it I come up with a different answer. Exactly how should the medical technology profession have handled the coronavirus pandemic?
First step is ethics. This is so obvious that it hardly needs stating. Only give the coronavirus vaccine to all people for whom the chance of death by vaccine is less than of death by virus. Drug approval regulations break this ethical standard twice. First in giving the vaccine to people who are at no risk from the virus. Second in giving the virus to people who are not otherwise at risk from the virus. And in addition to that … well, you’ll see.
Everyone agrees that a properly prepared dead virus vaccine is not a threat to the life of healthy people (on TV last night for example). So, if a dead virus vaccine is produced on one day then there is nothing ethically to stop it being used to save lives on the very same day. Also, a CSIRO medical researcher said on TV that they had a vaccine one day after receiving a sample of the virus from China. That makes sense because it only takes a day to purify and kill the virus.
So a timeline would be something like this.
Day 0. Preparation before the discovery of the pandemic.
- Government standards set for face mask and thermometers with manufacturers pre-selected.
- Keeping a commercially viable bulk repository of human lab-grown cells. Such as He-La cells, fibroblasts, and other immortal cell lines.
- Keeping a virus repository, including known mouse and human coronaviruses.
- Keep a stock of antivirals for other viruses, and insure that infectious health personnel are receiving them.
Day “5 Jan 2020”. The day that Covid-19 is first identified as a significant new disease, no deaths yet.
- Obtain virus samples. Microscope analysis.
- Try a mixture concocted from all previous antivirals on Covid-19 patients.
Day “6 Jan 2020”.
- The first dead virus vaccine – give to the a single person from heath personnel most in contact with patients with new disease.
- Over subsequent days produce one vaccine dose per patient per day, and give to the medical individuals most at risk.
- Start coronavirus DNA sequencing.
Day “11 Jan 2020”. First death from Covid-19 anywhere in the world.
Day “13 Jan 2020”. One week after first vaccine.
- This is enough time to preliminarily evaluate the toxicity of the dead virus vaccine for healthy individuals.
- Start breeding copies of the virus from the bulk repository of human cell lines.
- Start breeding to double the size of this cell repository.
- Begin manufacture of face masks, start retooling for producing thermometers.
Day “20-21 Jan 2020”. Two weeks after first vaccine. World death toll has reached 6.
- Already 100 or more (I estimate 500) medical personnel directly tending coronavirus patients have received vaccines and the toxicity evaluation for the dead virus vaccine on healthy people is complete. The vaccine effectiveness evaluation has not begun yet.
- Coronavirus tests have perhaps become available by this date.
- Harvest the first batch of loose viruses from the bulk repository of human cells, being careful not to damage the human cells in the process. This will provide enough viruses for 1000 vaccine doses, as well as for bulk production of coronavirus tests. Use for medical personnel and family members.
- Preliminary information on the successfulness of individual pre-existing antivirals on Covid-19.
- Start breeding up small amounts of other previously-known coronaviruses (mouse and human, not bird) in some of the bulk.
- Enough coronavirus DNA sequenced to get a rough sequence for the capsule coat proteins.
- From preliminary information on best antiviral and on capsule coat proteins, start computer modelling to produce a new antiviral tailored to Covid-19.
- Facemask design improvement is progressing. Begin manufacture of thermometers.
Day “27-28 Jan 2020”. World death toll reached 106. Three weeks after first vaccine.
- Toxicity evaluation of the 1000 dead virus vaccine doses from last week.
- First preliminary information on effectiveness of the first 100 or more vaccine doses. Does it do anything at all to slow coronavirus transmission?
- Another 1000 dead virus vaccine doses ready.
Day “28 Feb 2020”. One month later. Still only 63 cases and 0 deaths in the whole of the USA.
- Facemask distribution complete in China, well underway elsewhere. Thermometer distribution is well underway.
- Coronavirus testing well underway.
- About 10,000 dead coronavirus vaccine doses have been distributed.
- Human testing and in vitro testing of live coronavirus vaccine using pre-existing coronaviruses is half complete.
- Breeding up of a cleaner second type of dead virus vaccine (using PCR to duplicate a coat protein) is underway, and first human trials have begun.
- Breeding up of antiviral medicine has begun, and first doses have been given out to a few Covid-19 patients.
- The pandemic is sort of under control, we hope.
Day “6 Apr 2020”. Three months after first vaccine.
- It’s all over bar the shouting.
- A cleaner more effective vaccine has mostly replaced the first one. Either a capsule coat protein, pre-existing coronavirus or Covid-19 weakened by mutation, or antibody.
- The antiviral has proved effective (or not).
- The shouting is mostly for more doses of vaccine.
Notes:
- No animal testing.
- With minor modifications, the above mirrors the medical response to the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic. Bulk vaccine reached the USA at the same time as the virus, and reached Europe before the virus.