Who’s going to be the first to have a coronavirus vaccine available for the general public?
Any ideas?
I’ve heard rumours of human clinical trials in the UK and Australia, but not yet in the USA.
mollwollfumble said:
Who’s going to be the first to have a coronavirus vaccine available for the general public?Any ideas?
I’ve heard rumours of human clinical trials in the UK and Australia, but not yet in the USA.
Dunno yet but we are going to need it if we follow Scomo’s plan to kickstart the magical economy.
Don’t pin your hopes on a vaccine. It’s quite unlikely to happen. There really needs to be some sort of eureka moment because no-one so far has actually managed any sort of corona virus vaccine. They have been a recognized virus type for many, many years. I learnt about corona viruses when I was training in the early 1980s. It’s not just recently that people have been trying to work one out.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
buffy said:
Don’t pin your hopes on a vaccine. It’s quite unlikely to happen. There really needs to be some sort of eureka moment because no-one so far has actually managed any sort of corona virus vaccine. They have been a recognized virus type for many, many years. I learnt about corona viruses when I was training in the early 1980s. It’s not just recently that people have been trying to work one out.https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
But but but the guy on The Project last night said human trials had started!
buffy said:
Don’t pin your hopes on a vaccine. It’s quite unlikely to happen. There really needs to be some sort of eureka moment because no-one so far has actually managed any sort of corona virus vaccine. They have been a recognized virus type for many, many years. I learnt about corona viruses when I was training in the early 1980s. It’s not just recently that people have been trying to work one out.https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
They haven’t managed a human coronavirus vaccine. Vaccines exist for feline and canine coronaviruses.
Yesterday on the radio news, they said scientists in Thailand had captured hundreds of bats to test them for the original strain which caused COVID-19. The bats are having blood taken and released back into the wild before the results come back.
Divine Angel said:
buffy said:
Don’t pin your hopes on a vaccine. It’s quite unlikely to happen. There really needs to be some sort of eureka moment because no-one so far has actually managed any sort of corona virus vaccine. They have been a recognized virus type for many, many years. I learnt about corona viruses when I was training in the early 1980s. It’s not just recently that people have been trying to work one out.https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
But but but the guy on The Project last night said human trials had started!
trials have to run their course and be examined etc. and etc.
mollwollfumble said:
Who’s going to be the first to have a coronavirus vaccine available for the general public?Any ideas?
I’ve heard rumours of human clinical trials in the UK and Australia, but not yet in the USA.
Rumours? There are multiple clinical trials running worldwide of quite a variety of vaccines.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid19&term=vaccine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
buffy said:
Don’t pin your hopes on a vaccine. It’s quite unlikely to happen. There really needs to be some sort of eureka moment because no-one so far has actually managed any sort of corona virus vaccine. They have been a recognized virus type for many, many years. I learnt about corona viruses when I was training in the early 1980s. It’s not just recently that people have been trying to work one out.https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
There’s been minimal financial benefit in developing a coronavax for many years unless in common domestic animals.
Countries with number of vaccine candidate trials, why the South China Sea needs 5 I don’t know.
poikilotherm said:
Countries with number of vaccine candidate trials, why the South China Sea needs 5 I don’t know.
It is probably all those new islands there.
poikilotherm said:
Countries with number of vaccine candidate trials, why the South China Sea needs 5 I don’t know.
Ta.
Eight moolion….. Do I hear eight moolion….. eight moolion
Eight moolion going once……………………………….. eight moolion going twice……………
Woodie said:
Eight moolion….. Do I hear eight moolion….. eight moolionEight moolion going once……………………………….. eight moolion going twice……………
Ha!
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
Cleanliness is next to godliness?
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.
Being dumb is dangerous.
Rule 303 said:
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.Being dumb is dangerous.
Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
Michael V said:
Rule 303 said:
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.Being dumb is dangerous.
Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
Suspect petrol.
Michael V said:
Rule 303 said:
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.Being dumb is dangerous.
Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
I can only find info from media sources, which gives me no confidence in what the real story was: An elderly woman got strangled when her necklace got caught in a blender in Weipa…?
Rule 303 said:
Michael V said:
Rule 303 said:During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.Being dumb is dangerous.
Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
I can only find info from media sources, which gives me no confidence in what the real story was: An elderly woman got strangled when her necklace got caught in a blender in Weipa…?
A lot of people will be surprised at the injuries that can be had from getting gold neclaces caught in fast moving machiinery.
poikilotherm said:
mollwollfumble said:
Who’s going to be the first to have a coronavirus vaccine available for the general public?Any ideas?
I’ve heard rumours of human clinical trials in the UK and Australia, but not yet in the USA.
Rumours? There are multiple clinical trials running worldwide of quite a variety of vaccines.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid19&term=vaccine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
Wonderful source of information!
That’s exactly what I was looking for. Worth bookmarking.
If I filter by “active, not recruiting” for human trials. There are eight so far.
Recognisable treatments in this stage are:
In completed human trials of Covid-19 vaccine we have:
Another study worthy of note is:
Overall, that’s quite a range.
roughbarked said:
Rule 303 said:
Michael V said:Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
I can only find info from media sources, which gives me no confidence in what the real story was: An elderly woman got strangled when her necklace got caught in a blender in Weipa…?
A lot of people will be surprised at the injuries that can be had from getting gold neclaces caught in fast moving machiinery.
Looks like I have to sanitise my keyboard condom. As an apprentice I got some severe whackings from learning how to polish gold chans on the buff. Yeah, you fuck the chain but mainly by stretching and tangling it.
Michael V said:
Rule 303 said:
dv said:
Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w
Respondents reported engaging in a range of practices during the previous month with the intent of preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Figure 2). Sixty percent of respondents reported more frequent home cleaning or disinfection compared with that in preceding months. Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).
—-
Mary mother of God
During the Longford gas crisis in ’98 people were getting burns by tipping boiling water over themselves from kettles.
The only person to die from Cyclone Yasi asphyxiated because he was running a diesel generator in his bedroom.Being dumb is dangerous.
Was it diesel, or petrol?
(Underground mines use diesel-powered equipment, because they generally produce no CO, even when the air is full of partly burnt diesel particulates- so thick it can be difficult to see through.)
I didn’t know that about the diesel engines, it’s probably all electric now.
mollwollfumble said:
poikilotherm said:
mollwollfumble said:
Who’s going to be the first to have a coronavirus vaccine available for the general public?Any ideas?
I’ve heard rumours of human clinical trials in the UK and Australia, but not yet in the USA.
Rumours? There are multiple clinical trials running worldwide of quite a variety of vaccines.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid19&term=vaccine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
Wonderful source of information!
That’s exactly what I was looking for. Worth bookmarking.
If I filter by “active, not recruiting” for human trials. There are eight so far.
Recognisable treatments in this stage are:
- USA – Remdesivir
- (Egypt, new)
- France – Lopinavir and ritonavir
- UK – biological agents ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and MenACWY
- New Jersey USA – Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate
- Wuhan China – Recombinant novel coronavirus with Adenovirus type 5 vector
- Canada/Mongolia – V-SARS
- (Netherlands, new)
In completed human trials of Covid-19 vaccine we have:
- Turkey – Ozone therapy
- India – Random Donor Plasma
Another study worthy of note is:
- Montana USA – treatment of lung damage caused by Covid-19.
Overall, that’s quite a range.
> UK – biological agents ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and MenACWY
I thought I’d check up what these are. This is the Oxford study I’d heard about.
MenACWY is a meningococcal vaccine, possibly included as a placebo.
ChAdOx1 uses a “replication-deficient chimpanzee adenovirus” as a vector. This method has previously been used in trials against the earlier coronavirus MERS.
mollwollfumble said:
mollwollfumble said:
poikilotherm said:Rumours? There are multiple clinical trials running worldwide of quite a variety of vaccines.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid19&term=vaccine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
Wonderful source of information!
That’s exactly what I was looking for. Worth bookmarking.
If I filter by “active, not recruiting” for human trials. There are eight so far.
Recognisable treatments in this stage are:
- USA – Remdesivir
- (Egypt, new)
- France – Lopinavir and ritonavir
- UK – biological agents ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and MenACWY
- New Jersey USA – Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate
- Wuhan China – Recombinant novel coronavirus with Adenovirus type 5 vector
- Canada/Mongolia – V-SARS
- (Netherlands, new)
In completed human trials of Covid-19 vaccine we have:
- Turkey – Ozone therapy
- India – Random Donor Plasma
Another study worthy of note is:
- Montana USA – treatment of lung damage caused by Covid-19.
Overall, that’s quite a range.
> UK – biological agents ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and MenACWY
I thought I’d check up what these are. This is the Oxford study I’d heard about.
MenACWY is a meningococcal vaccine, possibly included as a placebo.
ChAdOx1 uses a “replication-deficient chimpanzee adenovirus” as a vector. This method has previously been used in trials against the earlier coronavirus MERS.
MenACWY is a commonly available commercial vaccine, is placebo in this instance.
I wonder how Australia’s minimum number of active flu cases compares with its maximum number of active Covid-19 cases.
mollwollfumble said:
I wonder how Australia’s minimum number of active flu cases compares with its maximum number of active Covid-19 cases.
It’s quite drastic.
mollwollfumble said:
I wonder how Australia’s minimum number of active flu cases compares with its maximum number of active Covid-19 cases.
That graph is not of lab identified flu cases. It’s of a group of people reporting fever and cough. I looked at the lab figures for last year and this year and this year started out in Jan and Feb looking as bad as last year, which was a whopper for lab confirmed flu cases. You can see exactly where the hand washing kicked in, about mid March.
JudgeMental said:
is that just hygiene though? or hygiene and isolation combination?
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
Arts said:
JudgeMental said:
is that just hygiene though? or hygiene and isolation combination?
I would say both. But it’s Dr Karl….
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
Quite a few states are seeing surges in new cases daily but it may just be due to expanded testing
JudgeMental said:
Arts said:
JudgeMental said:
is that just hygiene though? or hygiene and isolation combination?
I would say both. But it’s Dr Karl….
ah yes, the half info guy
Ooh, but have a look at some of the comments on the GP article I linked. It sounds like GPs have been told not to ask for flu tests because the labs are too busy with COVID testing. I wonder if that is correct.
buffy said:
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
I consider the flushing toilet, water carriage and sewage treatment systems to be an immense medical breakthrough.
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
Antibiotics are most useful in the context of surgery aren’t they?
Witty Rejoinder said:
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
Antibiotics are most useful in the context of surgery aren’t they?
Not really.
Witty Rejoinder said:
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
Antibiotics are most useful in the context of surgery aren’t they?
I would think that water treatment would be up there…
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
Peak Warming Man said:
buffy said:
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
The severity of infection was low
poikilotherm said:
Peak Warming Man said:
buffy said:
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
The severity of infection was low
i.e. From the Annual influenza report 2019
“Severity – Clinical severity for the season to date, as measured through the proportion of patients admitted directly to ICU, and deaths attributed to influenza, is low.”
Michael V said:
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
I consider the flushing toilet, water carriage and sewage treatment systems to be an immense medical breakthrough.
More of a plumbing breakthrough, really.
;-)
Michael V said:
buffy said:
JudgeMental said:
When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
I consider the flushing toilet, water carriage and sewage treatment systems to be an immense medical breakthrough.
Yep, modern water and sanitation systems are the greatest public health measures, ever.
It’s not until you’ve been in a place where drinking the tap water can kill you that you really appreciate what we have here.
captain_spalding said:
Yep, modern water and sanitation systems are the greatest public health measures, ever.
It’s not until you’ve been in a place where drinking the tap water can kill you that you really appreciate what we have here.
I’ve been to adelaide and survived!
JudgeMental said:
captain_spalding said:Yep, modern water and sanitation systems are the greatest public health measures, ever.
It’s not until you’ve been in a place where drinking the tap water can kill you that you really appreciate what we have here.
I’ve been to adelaide and survived!
I’m not sure that it’s water that comes out of Adelaide taps.
captain_spalding said:
Michael V said:
buffy said:When I trained 40 years ago, one of our tutors informed us that the biggest breakthrough in medicine had been the discovery of hand washing. All your antibiotics etc helped, but really, hand washing outweighs the lot of them.
I consider the flushing toilet, water carriage and sewage treatment systems to be an immense medical breakthrough.
Yep, modern water and sanitation systems are the greatest public health measures, ever.
It’s not until you’ve been in a place where drinking the tap water can kill you that you really appreciate what we have here.
captain_spalding said:
JudgeMental said:
captain_spalding said:Yep, modern water and sanitation systems are the greatest public health measures, ever.
It’s not until you’ve been in a place where drinking the tap water can kill you that you really appreciate what we have here.
I’ve been to adelaide and survived!
I’m not sure that it’s water that comes out of Adelaide taps.
Been three weeks since there were any Covid-19 deaths in Australia. The number of active cases has declined 19% to 380 over the past week: only 3 of those cases are “serious/critical”.
poikilotherm said:
poikilotherm said:
Peak Warming Man said:So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
The severity of infection was low
i.e. From the Annual influenza report 2019
“Severity – Clinical severity for the season to date, as measured through the proportion of patients admitted directly to ICU, and deaths attributed to influenza, is low.”
Ta.
Peak Warming Man said:
buffy said:
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
We didn’t have a bad season here, it must have been NSW and Qld, I guess.
buffy said:
Peak Warming Man said:
buffy said:
Here you go:
January and February looking like last year. March, reducing as people isolated and washed hands. Last couple of months well down.
Ref: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi
So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
We didn’t have a bad season here, it must have been NSW and Qld, I guess.
Other than NSW, all other states stats are just noise…
poikilotherm said:
buffy said:
Peak Warming Man said:So what the hell happened in 2019 with the flu.
I don’t remember there being any media outcry/panic/warning/culls
We didn’t have a bad season here, it must have been NSW and Qld, I guess.
Other than NSW, all other states stats are just noise…
:)You can claim Covid 19 stats as yours too?
buffy said:
poikilotherm said:
buffy said:We didn’t have a bad season here, it must have been NSW and Qld, I guess.
Other than NSW, all other states stats are just noise…
:)You can claim Covid 19 stats as yours too?
Of course.
while all of you weren’t looking
oh ¿ what was that
we wonder, did something happen a week before that
sarahs mum said:
we don’t like the fella, nor his cult, but that’s above a bit disingenuous, you’d do better to go by fractional change in INCIDENCE, no need to score an own foot shot
sarahs mum said:
ROFL.
It’s funny what you can do with a graph.
SCIENCE said:
sarahs mum said:
we don’t like the fella, nor his cult, but that’s above a bit disingenuous, you’d do better to go by fractional change in INCIDENCE, no need to score an own foot shot
disingenuous… Word of the day.
A second person who attended Melbourne’s Black Lives Matter protest has tested positive for COVID-19, among 12 new cases confirmed in Victoria.
Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said the Black Lives Matter protester was a young woman who attended the demonstration in Melbourne on June 6, but was “very unlikely” to have acquired the virus there. Professor Sutton said the woman wore personal protective equipment (PPE) at the protest and was unlikely to have transmitted the virus to other attendees because she had been “minimally symptomatic” at the time. “That individual took a great deal of care in terms of having a distance with others and I think is unlikely to have acquired it there given that there are a whole number of other places that this individual has gone to without PPE,” he said.
Professor Sutton said the new cases linked to the Coburg cluster were spread across households in Coburg, Pakenham and Broadmeadows. “The extended family is very large,” he said. “They’ve had gatherings across different households as many of us do now.”
The Palaszczuk Cabinet has agreed to end weeks of speculation about a proposed public service wage freeze by introducing special legislation into Parliament this week.
All public sector pay rises due from July 1 will be deferred until 2022, when two increases of 2.5 per cent will come into effect.
Australian Workers Union, which was about to certify an agreement for frontline health workers such as hospital orderlies and cleaners. Palaszczuk Government agreed to honour backpay for 2019 pay rises for these workers as well as a $1,250 “sign on bonus”.
The Queensland Teachers’ Union and the Police Union were expecting pay rises for their members from July 1 and have been strongly opposed to the deferral model.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/wage-deferral-legislation-confirmed-for-queensland-parliament/12356754
How Dare They Give Healthcare Workers Special Treatment, When There Was Hardly Any Outbreak And They Were Just Bludging
World of meters seems to have hit 8 million.
monkey skipper said:
How many people have really died from covid-19 so far?
Looking at how many more people are dying than usual gives an idea of the coronavirus pandemic’s true effect – and suggests a far higher death toll in many countriesHEALTH 29 April 2020
By Michael Le PageNew Scientist Default Image
Michael Dantas/Afp Via Getty ImagesWITH few countries doing enough testing to identify anywhere near all the deaths caused by the coronavirus, looking at how many more people are dying than usual is a better way of assessing the pandemic’s effect.
Why are the covid-19 death counts underestimates?
Reported coronavirus deaths are typically severely ill people who have tested positive for the coronavirus in a hospital. However, many people who have died may not have been tested – especially those who died at home or in a care home. Looking at the number of excess deaths suggests the true death toll has been higher than the number reported in many places, including Italy, Spain, Sweden, and England and Wales.
What are “excess deaths”?
It is how many more people are dying than would be expected. For instance, at this time of year, normally around 50,000 people die each week in the 24 European countries that report deaths to the EuroMOMO monitoring scheme. This has shot up to about 90,000, according to the latest numbers, which aren’t yet complete.
How big is the disparity with official counts?
It varies. One study estimates that the coronavirus had caused the deaths of 52,000 people in Italy by 18 April (medRxiv, doi.org/ds6s) – more than double the reported figure. Similarly, a Financial Times analysis suggests the virus had led to 45,000 deaths in the UK by 21 April, more than twice the official figure then of 17,000.
Are all the excess deaths due to the coronavirus?
Figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics indicate that the coronavirus is to blame for more than two-thirds of the excess deaths in England and Wales, based on the number of confirmed or suspected cases of covid-19 reported on death certificates.
That leaves roughly a third of excess deaths unexplained. Some of these may have been coronavirus cases without obvious symptoms, or cases where doctors weren’t confident enough to mention covid-19 on the death certificate. However, some of the unexplained excess deaths could be a result of more people dying of other causes, such as heart attack or stroke, because some are avoiding going to hospital due to the coronavirus. Emergency admissions figures from Public Health England suggest that attendance at hospital emergency departments in England was down about 50 per cent in April.
What about the crisis’s impact on hospitals?
It is certainly possible that some of the unexplained deaths may be indirect coronavirus deaths: people receiving less than the usual standard of medical care for a non-coronavirus condition due to the strain the virus is placing on healthcare systems.
Will we ever know the true toll of the virus?
Not exactly. But we will be able to get a much clearer picture once the crisis eventually ends and the overall number of deaths in 2020 and 2021 can be compared with other years.
What we do know for now is that most countries’ death tolls are undoubtedly underestimates – and for places including the US and Europe, many more deaths are still expected.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632804-100-how-many-people-have-really-died-from-covid-19-so-far/#ixzz6PRErGaci
thanks
Northeast Tibet firing up the engines again, time to crank up another outbreak for export and wipe out another bunch of fake democracies.
Here we go, linked to a market again apparently.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-14/COVID-19-in-Beijing-Inside-Xinfadi-biggest-wholesale-market-in-Asia-RjgKHh6HPW/index.html
State media so obviously take with as much salt as you would take Fox.
Its closure could disrupt the food supply chain in the city, potentially leading to shortages in the capital and beyond.
With a size of 1,120,000 square meters (roughly equivalent to 157 soccer fields or 251 American football fields), Xinfadi market makes up about 80 percent of Beijing’s entire farm produce supply. Every day, 18,000 tons of vegetables and 20,000 tons of fruits are traded here.
—
We mean with volumes like that you’d expect any outbreak would have a good chance of randomly starting there but you know if we give them the same skepticism as we give others, you have to wonder if someone from outside deliberately introduced it into the market… we hear West Alaska has an abnormally low death rate… they also supplied a perfume bottle to some friends in the UK… and they’re pretty friendly with the USSA “leadership” you know what we mean. And not like they don’t have a big stock of active virus to play with right now eh ¿
Imagine the damage you could do to a country by infecting their largest food market, wonder why we didn’t think of that before, oh, wait,
—
Also consider how positive samples are from chopping boards used to process the salmon, some are not, said Gao Xiaojun, a spokesman for the Beijing Municipal Health Commission. Gao may or may not know it but Queen Victoria Market in Melbourne, the capital of New South China, also has a fish section, and has wet market features!
—
Yang believed there is no possibility that the seafood itself, including salmon, can carry the novel coronavirus, as seafood is usually shipped refrigerated from overseas, but seafood can be contaminated by other means in the outer environment by the process of transportation or packaging.
Then again, they also said that there no human to human transmission, for the first few weeks too.
I’m not sure whether anybody has posted this link before.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
This website has Covid-19 projections out to 1 Oct 2020.
Click on the “United States of America” box for other countries.
The projections themselves are crap, but that doesn’t matter. The important point is that projections are now being published for free online on the web. Projections include total deaths, daily deaths, daily number of cases, daily number of tests, estimated daily undiagnosed cases, hospital use and social distancing restrictions.
Crap, well yes. For the USA they predict a 1 Oct death rate of 201,129. With a range of 171,555 to 269,395.
I expect a death toll in the USA by 1 Oct to be more like 155,000. That 171,000 is an extreme upper limit not an extreme lower limit.
Both the 155,000 and 201,129 are based on the official death toll. Both exclude deaths from Covid-19 at home where there was no diagnosis.
Their estimated daily undiagnosed cases (labelled as “estimated infections”), I’d very much like to find out more about. I think their figures are a vast overestimate. My estimate of daily peak undiagnosed cases is of rough order 50% of peak diagnosed cases, ie 15,000, based on the Chinese experience. But they claim that undiagnosed cases peaked a 250,000, larger by a factor of more than 15. Here I could be wrong, I would dearly like to know how they arrived at their numbers.
USA
Beijing CDC said:
Genome sequencing shows Xinfadi food market virus has European source
SCIENCE said:
Beijing CDC said:Genome sequencing shows Xinfadi food market virus has European source
HP or Worcestershire?
SCIENCE said:
Beijing CDC said:Genome sequencing shows Xinfadi food market virus has European source
Can we believe anything without independent verification?
Tamb said:
SCIENCE said:
Beijing CDC said:Genome sequencing shows Xinfadi food market virus has European source
HP or Worcestershire?
At least we know it isn’t ketchup.
roughbarked said:
SCIENCE said:
Beijing CDC said:Genome sequencing shows Xinfadi food market virus has European source
Can we believe anything without independent verification?
no but it fits the narrative that they got control first, quarantined returning travellers second, and now have imported surprises third
SCIENCE said:
roughbarked said:
SCIENCE said:Can we believe anything without independent verification?
no but it fits the narrative that they got control first, quarantined returning travellers second, and now have imported surprises third
OK.
SCIENCE said:
roughbarked said:
SCIENCE said:Can we believe anything without independent verification?
no but it fits the narrative that they got control first, quarantined returning travellers second, and now have imported surprises third
Also fits that there are asymptomatic spreaders of SARS-Cov-2 out there, and/or that some people become infectious after 14 days. . China is quarantining everybody entering the country for 14 days.
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
He got that part correctly. If we stop testing we won’t have any known cases.
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
Australia is loath to reopen state boarders and we have very few cases let alone the numbers the USA has and they want to restart things
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
I wonder if he was a professional wrestler at some point in time
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
I listen to him carefully, he was saying the law’s the law and shirtlifters could keep their jobs for now and he said he was getting on with beating the corona but was being badly let down by bleeding heart liberal states like California, let down so bigley by California that they may not be able to vote at all in his upcoming re-election.
Cymek said:
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
I wonder if he was a professional wrestler at some point in time
He was.
https://youtu.be/jkghtyxZ6rc
He recently appointed the man he beat there, Vince McMahon, to an advisory board on reopening the economy.
dv said:
Cymek said:
roughbarked said:Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
I wonder if he was a professional wrestler at some point in time
He was.
https://youtu.be/jkghtyxZ6rcHe recently appointed the man he beat there, Vince McMahon, to an advisory board on reopening the economy.
I was hoping the Hydroxychloroquine would stall his heart.
roughbarked said:
dv said:
Cymek said:I wonder if he was a professional wrestler at some point in time
He was.
https://youtu.be/jkghtyxZ6rcHe recently appointed the man he beat there, Vince McMahon, to an advisory board on reopening the economy.
I was hoping the Hydroxychloroquine would stall his heart.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/fda-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html
(CNN)The Food and Drug Administration has revoked its emergency use authorization for the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for the treatment of Covid-19.
Hydroxychloroquine was frequently touted by President Donald Trump, and he has claimed to have used it himself.
After reviewing the current research available on the drugs, the FDA determined that the drugs do not meet “the statutory criteria” for emergency use authorization as they are unlikely to be effective in treating Covid-19 based on the latest scientific evidence, the agency noted on its website on Monday.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/fda-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
He’ll have a fathom of depth, soon enough.
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
shakes head
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Very much so.
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,”
Like someone said the last time Trump said this, imagine how few babies would be born if we didn’t have pregnancy tests!
Divine Angel said:
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,”Like someone said the last time Trump said this, imagine how few babies would be born if we didn’t have pregnancy tests!
Speaking of babies, maybe he has not yet developed object permanence. “If we don’t see it, it’s not there!”
Divine Angel said:
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,”Like someone said the last time Trump said this, imagine how few babies would be born if we didn’t have pregnancy tests!
Heh!
dv said:
Divine Angel said:
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,”Like someone said the last time Trump said this, imagine how few babies would be born if we didn’t have pregnancy tests!
Speaking of babies, maybe he has not yet developed object permanence. “If we don’t see it, it’s not there!”
He must be a hoot at Hide and Seek.
The Rev Dodgson said:
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
He’ll have a fathom of depth, soon enough.
Hopefully sooner than later.
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
roughbarked said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
dv said:
Donald Trump is blaming an uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalisations solely on an increase in testing rather than his push for governors to reopen their states even as the sometimes-deadly disease continues to spread.“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” the president said Monday during an event for seniors at the White House.
A number of states have reported record numbers of sick people requiring hospital stays since the pandemic begin, even as they continue steps to get their economies open again.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html
Woman wept
It’s hard to fathom how much of a moron he is.
Fathomless? I’d reckon there is no depth at all to the man.
It’s the Air India method.
The story of how an Air India aircraft had a warning light flashing in its cockpit. Not a critical thing, but, hey, this should be looked at, soon.
Crew after crew reported the indicator flashing.
AI put a stop to the reports by removing the little light bulb from the indicator.
how’s that for a slap, NSW demande border opening but then
SA borders to reopen to travellers from WA, NT and Tasmania as coronavirus restrictions eased
dv said:
And in which states does the coronavirus kill twice as many people on Tuesday as on Sunday?
In that respect, Mexico is a lot worse than the USA.
Pakistan and Bangers seem to on a sharp up-curve.
PermeateFree said:
Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
sibeen said:
PermeateFree said:
Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
The best country in the world: Texas
dv said:
sibeen said:
PermeateFree said:
Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
The best country in the world: Texas
ROFL
sibeen said:
PermeateFree said:
Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
US, UK.
party_pants said:
sibeen said:
PermeateFree said:
Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
US, UK.
Not even close.
sibeen said:
party_pants said:
sibeen said:Would be interesting to see what country that is modeled on.
US, UK.
Not even close.
It is entirely speculative. No country yet has experienced a big second wave like this. Most developed countries are on a slow decline after their first wave, some slower than others.
party_pants said:
sibeen said:
party_pants said:US, UK.
Not even close.
It is entirely speculative. No country yet has experienced a big second wave like this. Most developed countries are on a slow decline after their first wave, some slower than others.
South America, Russia, India, etc.
party_pants said:
sibeen said:
party_pants said:US, UK.
Not even close.
It is entirely speculative. No country yet has experienced a big second wave like this. Most developed countries are on a slow decline after their first wave, some slower than others.
> Would be interesting to see what country that is modelled on.
Only Iran comes close. But there the first wave was a high mortality strain with a 5 day timelag between detection and death, and the big second wave was a lower mortality strain with a 10 day timelag between detection and death, ie. essentially two different viruses.
I would guess that the CDC predictions are, as party_pants remarked, entirely speculative, based on a couple of totally hypothetical relationships.
mollwollfumble said:
party_pants said:
sibeen said:Not even close.
It is entirely speculative. No country yet has experienced a big second wave like this. Most developed countries are on a slow decline after their first wave, some slower than others.
> Would be interesting to see what country that is modelled on.
Only Iran comes close. But there the first wave was a high mortality strain with a 5 day timelag between detection and death, and the big second wave was a lower mortality strain with a 10 day timelag between detection and death, ie. essentially two different viruses.
I would guess that the CDC predictions are, as party_pants remarked, entirely speculative, based on a couple of totally hypothetical relationships.
People you are not reading the chart marker correctly. If it is modeled on anything, it would be the world not a country.
PermeateFree said:
mollwollfumble said:
party_pants said:It is entirely speculative. No country yet has experienced a big second wave like this. Most developed countries are on a slow decline after their first wave, some slower than others.
> Would be interesting to see what country that is modelled on.
Only Iran comes close. But there the first wave was a high mortality strain with a 5 day timelag between detection and death, and the big second wave was a lower mortality strain with a 10 day timelag between detection and death, ie. essentially two different viruses.
I would guess that the CDC predictions are, as party_pants remarked, entirely speculative, based on a couple of totally hypothetical relationships.
People you are not reading the chart marker correctly. If it is modeled on anything, it would be the world not a country.
It doesn’t look like the world curve.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Canada looks like they are getting a grip on it.
sarahs mum said:
PermeateFree said:
mollwollfumble said:> Would be interesting to see what country that is modelled on.
Only Iran comes close. But there the first wave was a high mortality strain with a 5 day timelag between detection and death, and the big second wave was a lower mortality strain with a 10 day timelag between detection and death, ie. essentially two different viruses.
I would guess that the CDC predictions are, as party_pants remarked, entirely speculative, based on a couple of totally hypothetical relationships.
People you are not reading the chart marker correctly. If it is modeled on anything, it would be the world not a country.
It doesn’t look like the world curve.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Well if you click on the “Daily cases” world stats, it has a close similarity.
PermeateFree said:
sarahs mum said:
PermeateFree said:People you are not reading the chart marker correctly. If it is modeled on anything, it would be the world not a country.
It doesn’t look like the world curve.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Well if you click on the “Daily cases” world stats, it has a close similarity.
okay.
sarahs mum said:
PermeateFree said:
sarahs mum said:It doesn’t look like the world curve.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Well if you click on the “Daily cases” world stats, it has a close similarity.
okay.
Makes Sense, The Same Shutdown Reopen Policies Are Simultaneously In Place Across The Entire World, You Know It
Meanwhile, COVID-19 keeps up the wins for Federal Liberal, it saves them from the bushfires, it gives them a West Taiwanese punching bag, it makes them look like economic geniuses by giving away money and widening the deficit they promised not to have, and now it kills off Medicare, it’s win win win win win!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-16/coronavirus-leaves-medical-practices-on-verge-of-collapse/12359282
Giving low doses of the generic steroid Dexamethasone to patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 reduced death rates by around a third among those with the most severe cases of infection, trial data has shown.
The research yet again knifes West Taiwanese mouthpiece the World Health Organisation in its spineless back. The World Health Organization has recommended against routinely administering systemic corticosteroids to patients with COVID‐19. https://www.who.int/publications-detail/clinical-management-of-severe-acute-respiratory-infection-when-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-is-suspected
Nevertheless, the findings confirm that West Taiwan was hiding things, they knew all along, but they were lying of course, with the discovery that a consensus statement by the Chinese Thoracic Society recommends using corticosteroids … in the context of a randomised controlled trial. http://rs.yiigle.com/m/yufabiao/1180121.htm
Typical.
Guess what works for asthma and sore throats and the like ¿
There have been 61 new cases in Australia since Saturday, 30 of them are from overseas
All but one of these cases have been in NSW and Victoria
Dr Katherine Gibney agreed with Donald Trump that new cases could be credited to our high rates of testing
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-16/coronavirus-curve-in-australia-rises-after-restrictions-ease/12360340
Compared to the low coronavirus infection numbers we have become used to seeing in Australia, this week we’ve seen a big jump. New cases have been in the double digits for four consecutive days. But the fact we’re even talking about it is a sign of just how well Australia has handled the pandemic. It’s as well as China handled it in January!
It’s not a spike — not by any stretch — and it is worth remembering that not all cases are as bad as each other. There have also been no further deaths, and we can throw cold water on any suggestions that there is any human to human transmission! This new outbreak only affects people with a different skin colour to us Lower Primates.
NSW went two weeks without recording a locally acquired infection, but since Friday the state has recorded four of them. The broken streak of local infections came almost a fortnight after major restrictions were eased on June 1. This pattern, you will be surprised to know, fits what we have known for fucking months.
“Every time we lift controls there is the possibility that there will be more transmission in the community, that’s why they’re lifting the restrictions quite slowly and methodically,” Dr Gibney said. “There’s nothing that’s happened that would necessarily cause the people who are making these decisions to panic or change course.” We have been lifting restrictions, the case numbers are rising, so obviously the correct decision is to keep going and lift restrictions and get more climbing.
New Zealand has declared victory in eliminating local transmissions, but that no longer appears to be an option in Australia, according to Dr Gibney. “If we wanted elimination, we would have had to keep the very strict lockdown measures in place for several weeks longer,” she said. On the other hand, if we’d done this shit right in the first place, we would have been able to declare victory as well, and… wait, did we hear that New Zealand aren’t keeping very strict lockdown measures in place for several weeks longer?! Nah fuck that, they’re probably lying as well, just like China.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-17/covidsafe-contact-tracing-app-test-documents-rated-poor-iphone/12359250
As of June 11, no local health authorities have said COVIDSafe had identified any otherwise unidentified contacts.
Authorities say that is because case numbers in Australia are so low.
Data from the app has been accessed in around 30 coronavirus cases nationwide, during a period when around 565 new cases were diagnosed in Australia, including infections acquired overseas.
“Dexamethasone, a cheap and widely used steroid, has become the first drug shown to be able to save lives among COVID-19 patients in what British scientists have hailed as a “major breakthrough”.
Sounds promising, baby steps.
SCIENCE said:
Already in Wikipedia…
Oxford trial shows cheap steroid can reduce COVID-19 deaths
Giving low doses of the generic steroid Dexamethasone to patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 reduced death rates by around a third among those with the most severe cases of infection, trial data has shown.
The research yet again knifes West Taiwanese mouthpiece the World Health Organisation in its spineless back. The World Health Organization has recommended against routinely administering systemic corticosteroids to patients with COVID‐19. https://www.who.int/publications-detail/clinical-management-of-severe-acute-respiratory-infection-when-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-is-suspected
Nevertheless, the findings confirm that West Taiwan was hiding things, they knew all along, but they were lying of course, with the discovery that a consensus statement by the Chinese Thoracic Society recommends using corticosteroids … in the context of a randomised controlled trial. http://rs.yiigle.com/m/yufabiao/1180121.htm
Typical.
Guess what works for asthma and sore throats and the like ¿
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dexamethasone#COVID-19
SCIENCE said:
COVIDSafe data protection extended to keeping its poor performance a secret
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-17/covidsafe-contact-tracing-app-test-documents-rated-poor-iphone/12359250
As of June 11, no local health authorities have said COVIDSafe had identified any otherwise unidentified contacts.
Authorities say that is because case numbers in Australia are so low.
Data from the app has been accessed in around 30 coronavirus cases nationwide, during a period when around 565 new cases were diagnosed in Australia, including infections acquired overseas.
Only around 6 million people have downloaded the app. There are relatively few cases in Australia. It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something). And many people don’t have a smart phone capable of installing apps and other tech difficulties such as not knowing how to turn Bluetooth on.
Also in COVID news, SEQ’s theme parks are reopening. It’s apparently costing them $15m a month to keep closed. Sea World may open as early as next Friday, while Dreamworld, Movie World and Wet n Wild plan to open over the school holidays.
Divine Angel said:
It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something).
That’s a little bit of a problem isn’t it?
I hear that iphones are quite popular for some reason.
Divine Angel said:
SCIENCE said:
COVIDSafe data protection extended to keeping its poor performance a secret
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-17/covidsafe-contact-tracing-app-test-documents-rated-poor-iphone/12359250
As of June 11, no local health authorities have said COVIDSafe had identified any otherwise unidentified contacts.
Authorities say that is because case numbers in Australia are so low.
Data from the app has been accessed in around 30 coronavirus cases nationwide, during a period when around 565 new cases were diagnosed in Australia, including infections acquired overseas.
Only around 6 million people have downloaded the app. There are relatively few cases in Australia. It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something). And many people don’t have a smart phone capable of installing apps and other tech difficulties such as not knowing how to turn Bluetooth on.
Yeah, I think we were all supposed to go buy new phones. Mine’s just 18 months old and doesn’t have the operating system capable of running the app.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something).
That’s a little bit of a problem isn’t it?
I hear that iphones are quite popular for some reason.
Yep, a major problem when you want an app like this to work properly.
Michael V said:
Divine Angel said:
SCIENCE said:
COVIDSafe data protection extended to keeping its poor performance a secret
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-17/covidsafe-contact-tracing-app-test-documents-rated-poor-iphone/12359250
As of June 11, no local health authorities have said COVIDSafe had identified any otherwise unidentified contacts.
Authorities say that is because case numbers in Australia are so low.
Data from the app has been accessed in around 30 coronavirus cases nationwide, during a period when around 565 new cases were diagnosed in Australia, including infections acquired overseas.
Only around 6 million people have downloaded the app. There are relatively few cases in Australia. It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something). And many people don’t have a smart phone capable of installing apps and other tech difficulties such as not knowing how to turn Bluetooth on.
Yeah, I think we were all supposed to go buy new phones. Mine’s just 18 months old and doesn’t have the operating system capable of running the app.
I have an iPhone 5s, which came out in 2013. I was able to install the app, and it tells me it’s working, but the Internet forums tell me it’s not going to work properly. My phone is too old.
Yesterday, my phone was definitely playing up. While out for a walk, Mr Mutant tried to call me three times, but my phone never rang. It was only when I called him that my phone beeped with three missed calls and four text messages. Last night I texted my mum, and this morning when I restarted the phone, I got four texts from her all at once that she’d sent yesterday. Stoopid phone. With the earnings from my bestselling debut novel, I’ll buy a new phone :)
Divine Angel said:
Michael V said:
Divine Angel said:Only around 6 million people have downloaded the app. There are relatively few cases in Australia. It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something). And many people don’t have a smart phone capable of installing apps and other tech difficulties such as not knowing how to turn Bluetooth on.
Yeah, I think we were all supposed to go buy new phones. Mine’s just 18 months old and doesn’t have the operating system capable of running the app.
I have an iPhone 5s, which came out in 2013. I was able to install the app, and it tells me it’s working, but the Internet forums tell me it’s not going to work properly. My phone is too old.
Yesterday, my phone was definitely playing up. While out for a walk, Mr Mutant tried to call me three times, but my phone never rang. It was only when I called him that my phone beeped with three missed calls and four text messages. Last night I texted my mum, and this morning when I restarted the phone, I got four texts from her all at once that she’d sent yesterday. Stoopid phone. With the earnings from my bestselling debut novel, I’ll buy a new phone :)
I suspect the text delay thing may be a service provider problem, rather than the phone.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:
Michael V said:Yeah, I think we were all supposed to go buy new phones. Mine’s just 18 months old and doesn’t have the operating system capable of running the app.
I have an iPhone 5s, which came out in 2013. I was able to install the app, and it tells me it’s working, but the Internet forums tell me it’s not going to work properly. My phone is too old.
Yesterday, my phone was definitely playing up. While out for a walk, Mr Mutant tried to call me three times, but my phone never rang. It was only when I called him that my phone beeped with three missed calls and four text messages. Last night I texted my mum, and this morning when I restarted the phone, I got four texts from her all at once that she’d sent yesterday. Stoopid phone. With the earnings from my bestselling debut novel, I’ll buy a new phone :)
I suspect the text delay thing may be a service provider problem, rather than the phone.
My phone is an ultra cheap Telstra lite. I see they are now $9 at the post office. Mr buffy suggests I “invest” $9 for when the battery goes on the one I’m using. Anyway, last week a text took a week to get to me. Admittedly it’s not turned on all the time, only when I need it or when I am travelling alone. But I had had it on during that silent week. Do they “look” for stuff in the aether when you turn them on?
Divine Angel said:
SCIENCE said:
COVIDSafe data protection extended to keeping its poor performance a secret
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-17/covidsafe-contact-tracing-app-test-documents-rated-poor-iphone/12359250
As of June 11, no local health authorities have said COVIDSafe had identified any otherwise unidentified contacts.
Authorities say that is because case numbers in Australia are so low.
Data from the app has been accessed in around 30 coronavirus cases nationwide, during a period when around 565 new cases were diagnosed in Australia, including infections acquired overseas.
Only around 6 million people have downloaded the app. There are relatively few cases in Australia. It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something). And many people don’t have a smart phone capable of installing apps and other tech difficulties such as not knowing how to turn Bluetooth on.
All of which means thta I am one who didn’t bother with it.
Divine Angel said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:It doesn’t work properly on iphones- the app doesn’t run in the background like it’s supposed to (or something).
That’s a little bit of a problem isn’t it?
I hear that iphones are quite popular for some reason.
Yep, a major problem when you want an app like this to work properly.
Mrs rb got a new iPhone because hers was too old. The app works, you have more control over using it than others is the only difference between iPhone and others.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Divine Angel said:
Michael V said:Yeah, I think we were all supposed to go buy new phones. Mine’s just 18 months old and doesn’t have the operating system capable of running the app.
I have an iPhone 5s, which came out in 2013. I was able to install the app, and it tells me it’s working, but the Internet forums tell me it’s not going to work properly. My phone is too old.
Yesterday, my phone was definitely playing up. While out for a walk, Mr Mutant tried to call me three times, but my phone never rang. It was only when I called him that my phone beeped with three missed calls and four text messages. Last night I texted my mum, and this morning when I restarted the phone, I got four texts from her all at once that she’d sent yesterday. Stoopid phone. With the earnings from my bestselling debut novel, I’ll buy a new phone :)
I suspect the text delay thing may be a service provider problem, rather than the phone.
This. I’ve also experienced intermittent issues of similar nature.
So, over 2000 deaths recorded in India yesterday
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/06/15/inspectors-general-congress-coronavirus-321086
Federal watchdogs are asking lawmakers for help after Trump administration legal rulings appeared to sharply limit their ability to monitor more than $1 trillion in coronavirus relief programs — including huge payouts to protect businesses threatened by the pandemic.
In a two-page letter to several House and Senate committees last week, but disclosed for the first time on Monday, the inspectors general responsible for coronavirus relief oversight said an “ambiguity” in the main coronavirus response law — the CARES Act — allowed administration officials to sharply limit how much of the law’s spending requirements they must collect and report. This narrow interpretation of the law, the inspectors general warn, would dramatically impede their ability to gather information about some of the most expansive programs in the law, from the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program to the $454 billion Treasury fund to protect businesses and industries damaged by the outbreak.
dv said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/06/15/inspectors-general-congress-coronavirus-321086Federal watchdogs are asking lawmakers for help after Trump administration legal rulings appeared to sharply limit their ability to monitor more than $1 trillion in coronavirus relief programs — including huge payouts to protect businesses threatened by the pandemic.
In a two-page letter to several House and Senate committees last week, but disclosed for the first time on Monday, the inspectors general responsible for coronavirus relief oversight said an “ambiguity” in the main coronavirus response law — the CARES Act — allowed administration officials to sharply limit how much of the law’s spending requirements they must collect and report. This narrow interpretation of the law, the inspectors general warn, would dramatically impede their ability to gather information about some of the most expansive programs in the law, from the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program to the $454 billion Treasury fund to protect businesses and industries damaged by the outbreak.
That sounds extremely dodgy
dv said:
So, over 2000 deaths recorded in India yesterday
Ouch.
“NOTE: Of the 1,409 deaths added today in in Maharashtra, 81 represent the actual daily increase, while 1,328 deaths (862 from Mumbai and the remaining 466 from across the state) actually occurred in March and April but were added only today after clearance from the state’s death audit committee tasked with taking the final call on the cause of deaths”
https://www.theage.com.au/world/south-america/brazil-reports-record-34-918-new-coronavirus-cases-in-a-day-20200617-p553c6.html
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
Maybe people arriving from certain places or countries where the virus is more prevalent can have extra protocols and restrictions placed on them.
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
Maybe people arriving from certain places or countries where the virus is more prevalent can have extra protocols and restrictions placed on them.
we’ll go further and say should, and include other goods and products
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
Bugger.
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
The NZ figures have bamboozled me a bit over the last week or so. As an example Victoria had 15 cases reported yesterday from people who have traveled from overseas and are in quarantine. Isn’t NZ receiving any international travelers at all?
SCIENCE said:
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
Maybe people arriving from certain places or countries where the virus is more prevalent can have extra protocols and restrictions placed on them.
we’ll go further and say should, and include other goods and products
Maybe the protocols in place could be followed…
buffy said:
SCIENCE said:
party_pants said:Maybe people arriving from certain places or countries where the virus is more prevalent can have extra protocols and restrictions placed on them.
we’ll go further and say should, and include other goods and products
Maybe the protocols in place could be followed…
Yeah, there is always that option.
I was thinking more along the lines that countries who have not managed their Covid outbreaks well should be ostracised in some small ways as a form of punishment.
Beijing shuts all schools and goes to ‘alert level two’ to tackle new coronavirus outbreak caused by ‘contaminated goods and interpersonal communication’ as China blames European strain.
The Chinese capital city has recorded 106 COVID-19 infections in the past five days, including 27 cases today
Officials have put ‘high-risk’ areas in lockdown and all primary and middle schools will close from tomorrow
Authorities have raised the emergency response alert to ‘level two’, meaning a ‘severe’ public health event
One scientist has warned the new strain of the virus could be more infectious, believing it came from Europe
Traces of the virus were found on a salmon chopping board at a popular food wholesale market called Xinfadi
But China’s CDC said no evidence showed salmon was the host or intermediate host of the novel coronavirus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8427641/Beijing-shuts-schools-goes-alert-level-two-tackle-new-coronavirus-outbreak.html
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-covid-19-restrictions-will-be-needed-for-anti-vaxxers-20200616-p55330.html
JudgeMental said:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-covid-19-restrictions-will-be-needed-for-anti-vaxxers-20200616-p55330.html
and branch stackers
sarahs mum said:
One scientist has warned the new strain of the virus could be more infectious, believing it came from Europe
is it possible that when we let an infection run rampant, it evolves to be more dangerous
sarahs mum said:
But China’s CDC said no evidence showed salmon was the host or intermediate host of the novel coronavirus
is it possible for zoonoses to zoonose further, and how fucked are we if it evolves to spread through marine life
is it possible for China’s CDC to be as wrong about this as they were about human to human transmission in early January
SCIENCE said:
sarahs mum said:
One scientist has warned the new strain of the virus could be more infectious, believing it came from Europeis it possible that when we let an infection run rampant, it evolves to be more dangerous
Probably the opposite. The virus killing off the host too quickly is bad for the virus. From the POV of viruses, they want slow but persistent spread.Highly infectious but lower mortality is probably what suits the virus best.
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
sarahs mum said:
One scientist has warned the new strain of the virus could be more infectious, believing it came from Europeis it possible that when we let an infection run rampant, it evolves to be more dangerous
Probably the opposite. The virus killing off the host too quickly is bad for the virus. From the POV of viruses, they want slow but persistent spread.Highly infectious but lower mortality is probably what suits the virus best.
ah but perhaps that only happens if people have good sanitation and hygiene that means they have to be alive and well to be spreading it, per the sanitation-virulence hypothesis advanced previously, and instead if we let an infection run rampant then viruses that cause hosts to explode earlier in a shower of virus might get the upper hand hey
slightly different tune here
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-super-spreader-events-uk
sibeen said:
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
The NZ figures have bamboozled me a bit over the last week or so. As an example Victoria had 15 cases reported yesterday from people who have traveled from overseas and are in quarantine. Isn’t NZ receiving any international travelers at all?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/new-zealand-brings-in-military-after-covid-19-quarantine-fiasco
This article may have answered my question.
Ardern said the new cases did not change New Zealand’s Covid-free status. “Our definition always assumed there would be cases at the border,” she said.
That seems to suggest that they are getting cases but if they are from overseas are not counting them. Bit strange.
sibeen said:
sibeen said:
SCIENCE said:
WAVES TO NEW ZEALAND’No excuses’ for quarantine failure: Ardern
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a breakdown in COVID-19 controls led to two travellers testing positive to the disease after leaving quarantine. The country had not seen a new coronavirus case in three weeks before two women who had recently arrived from London, via Brisbane, tested positive yesterday. Ms Ardern said protocol required the women to be tested twice — on day three and day 12 — before leaving quarantine. “That should have happened in the cases we learned about yesterday. It did not and there are no excuses,” she said.
The women drove halfway across the country before they were tested and found to be positive. The re-emergence of the virus in the country once praised for how it handled infections raised the spectre that international air travel could trigger a fresh wave of contagion just as countries reopen airports to stimulate tourism.
The NZ figures have bamboozled me a bit over the last week or so. As an example Victoria had 15 cases reported yesterday from people who have traveled from overseas and are in quarantine. Isn’t NZ receiving any international travelers at all?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/new-zealand-brings-in-military-after-covid-19-quarantine-fiasco
This article may have answered my question.
Ardern said the new cases did not change New Zealand’s Covid-free status. “Our definition always assumed there would be cases at the border,” she said.
That seems to suggest that they are getting cases but if they are from overseas are not counting them. Bit strange.
because they are being caught at the border? Except for yhese two
dv said:
sibeen said:
sibeen said:The NZ figures have bamboozled me a bit over the last week or so. As an example Victoria had 15 cases reported yesterday from people who have traveled from overseas and are in quarantine. Isn’t NZ receiving any international travelers at all?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/new-zealand-brings-in-military-after-covid-19-quarantine-fiasco
This article may have answered my question.
Ardern said the new cases did not change New Zealand’s Covid-free status. “Our definition always assumed there would be cases at the border,” she said.
That seems to suggest that they are getting cases but if they are from overseas are not counting them. Bit strange.
because they are being caught at the border? Except for yhese two
Or diagnosed in quarantine? The article really doesn’t make it clear. I was just surprised by the no new cases at all when you have people returning from overseas. As I said, Victoria had 15 cases yesterday that came in under that scenario.
wait we thought they were all cocky and all The Economy Must Grow Fuck The Health System but this sounds a bit cowardly, wonder what happened, did NZ suddenly cop a couple of cases ¿ maybe tertiary spread in West Taiwan ¿ hell you’d think you have to be extra careful with letting these Europeans and formerly Europeans slip through the net
—
Simon Birmingham said the decision to shut the border was one of the main reasons for Australia’s success in suppressing COVID-19 and it would not be lifted for general travel any time soon.
“I do sadly think that in terms of open tourist-related travel in or out of Australia, that remains quite some distance off,” Senator Birmingham told the National Press Club.
“Just because of the practicalities of the volumes that are involved and the need for us to first and foremost keep putting health first.”
Asked whether that meant the border would not open until next year, he said, “I think that is more likely the case”.
Suppression Without Eradication Strategy Hard At Work
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/aged-care-resident-and-hotel-worker-among-21-new-covid-19-cases-20200617-p553da.html
Victoria’s health chief warns rising community transmission cases could delay timetable for easing COVID-19 restrictions after spike in fresh cases.
SCIENCE said:
Suppression Without Eradication Strategy Hard At Workhttps://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/aged-care-resident-and-hotel-worker-among-21-new-covid-19-cases-20200617-p553da.html
Victoria’s health chief warns rising community transmission cases could delay timetable for easing COVID-19 restrictions after spike in fresh cases.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/covid-19-resurgence-threatens-south-koreas-success-story/
New Zealand has also cancelled all compassionate exceptions to its quarantine measures.
Long-running soap opera The Bold and the Beautiful will use sex dolls for intimate scenes, to reduce risk of COVID transmission.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/the-bold-and-the-beautiful-will-use-blowup-dolls-to-safely-resume-filming-sex-scenes/news-story/a4ae015bb1ed535d9c10996c9a885f07
I wonder, in 1920, how many people just straight denied the existence of Spanish Flu.
dv said:
I wonder, in 1920, how many people just straight denied the existence of Spanish Flu.
And how many blamed it on the new fancy radio stations…
Done my updated mortality rates now. In the chart below you see a comparison of mortality rates now and those of 19 April (or sometimes up to a month after 19 April). Blank values for 19 April mean (Sweden, Romania, Ireland etc.) mean that I hadn’t analysed that country back then.
I still need to check a few of those, particularly those where the mortality rate differs greatly between 19 April and 13 June. China should still be taken as 4.1% mortality.
mollwollfumble said:
Done my updated mortality rates now. In the chart below you see a comparison of mortality rates now and those of 19 April (or sometimes up to a month after 19 April). Blank values for 19 April mean (Sweden, Romania, Ireland etc.) mean that I hadn’t analysed that country back then.I still need to check a few of those, particularly those where the mortality rate differs greatly between 19 April and 13 June. China should still be taken as 4.1% mortality.
What do you make of the results, Moll?
Rule 303 said:
mollwollfumble said:
Done my updated mortality rates now. In the chart below you see a comparison of mortality rates now and those of 19 April (or sometimes up to a month after 19 April). Blank values for 19 April mean (Sweden, Romania, Ireland etc.) mean that I hadn’t analysed that country back then.I still need to check a few of those, particularly those where the mortality rate differs greatly between 19 April and 13 June. China should still be taken as 4.1% mortality.
What do you make of the results, Moll?
I’ll get back to you on that, after I’ve has some sleep. The most prominent feature is that there’s no way to predict mortality based on either geographic location or quality of medical care. Other than that the highest mortality rates tend to be in Europe. The other most prominent feature is that 5% mortality and above is horrendous. Whereas 1.5% mortality and below is essentially harmless (a similar death rate to old age).
Here’s the same data in table form, with “World” added at 6.3%.
mollwollfumble said:
Rule 303 said:
mollwollfumble said:
Done my updated mortality rates now. In the chart below you see a comparison of mortality rates now and those of 19 April (or sometimes up to a month after 19 April). Blank values for 19 April mean (Sweden, Romania, Ireland etc.) mean that I hadn’t analysed that country back then.I still need to check a few of those, particularly those where the mortality rate differs greatly between 19 April and 13 June. China should still be taken as 4.1% mortality.
What do you make of the results, Moll?
I’ll get back to you on that, after I’ve has some sleep. The most prominent feature is that there’s no way to predict mortality based on either geographic location or quality of medical care. Other than that the highest mortality rates tend to be in Europe. The other most prominent feature is that 5% mortality and above is horrendous. Whereas 1.5% mortality and below is essentially harmless (a similar death rate to old age).
Here’s the same data in table form, with “World” added at 6.3%.
Um, some of those April numbers are wildly wrong, total guesses on my part based on what I expected would be similar countries – but weren’t even remotely similar. April numbers that should be excised from the chart and table include Belgium, Netherlands, Chile and Afghanistan.
OK, some fixes were needed. Four countries weren’t calculated properly at the earlier date. I’d mixed up Austria and Bahrain, China needed an adjustment. ‘World’ now added.
Countries with no bar for 19 April are countries where I hadn’t done the analysis back then.
Conclusions:
https://imgur.com/gallery/4EhXSEU
Order yours now!
LOL
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
No. I paid $1.08 yesterday.
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
It’s just the usual petrol price cycle. You’ve never noticed it before?
party_pants said:
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
No. I paid $1.08 yesterday.
Jumped from $1.03 to $1.24-$1.25 around here.
Can still get it for $1.07 at Metro station in town, so i did that today.
Witty Rejoinder said:
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
It’s just the usual petrol price cycle. You’ve never noticed it before?
Why is there a ‘petrol price cycle’ at all?
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
Yep. Graph on the PetrolSpy app alerted me to it. I think I’ve filled up twice in the last four months.
Witty Rejoinder said:
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
It’s just the usual petrol price cycle. You’ve never noticed it before?
The ‘usual cycle’ varies according to where you are. In Melbourne, it jumps 20c every third Tuesday. This jump, however, came after a long period of slow decline that lined up with the traffic volume on the roads.
Actually, i can supply the answer to that:
Oil companies dictate, in a regular pattern that this area shall have low prices, and this area shall have higher prices.
This creates an artificial atmosphere of ‘scarcity, which prompts people to ‘panic buy’ as we saw with toilet paper recently, albeit in a rather milder way. Petrol companies sell a goodly amount of fuel at the inflated price, boosting their profits.
When it’s your area’s turn for low prices, people hasten to take advantage of it, and buy fuel more frequently, boosting volume of sales and thus boosting profits, even if the price per litre is lower.
It’s win/win. Totally unnecessary, and governments could do something about it, but hey, like, oil companies, y’know?
Rule 303 said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
It’s just the usual petrol price cycle. You’ve never noticed it before?
The ‘usual cycle’ varies according to where you are. In Melbourne, it jumps 20c every third Tuesday. This jump, however, came after a long period of slow decline that lined up with the traffic volume on the roads.
I’m sorry, we are now on our second 20c jump cycle since the long drop.
https://petrolspy.com.au/map/graph/melbourne
ah peak oil again
captain_spalding said:
Actually, i can supply the answer to that:Oil companies dictate, in a regular pattern that this area shall have low prices, and this area shall have higher prices.
This creates an artificial atmosphere of ‘scarcity, which prompts people to ‘panic buy’ as we saw with toilet paper recently, albeit in a rather milder way. Petrol companies sell a goodly amount of fuel at the inflated price, boosting their profits.When it’s your area’s turn for low prices, people hasten to take advantage of it, and buy fuel more frequently, boosting volume of sales and thus boosting profits, even if the price per litre is lower.
It’s win/win. Totally unnecessary, and governments could do something about it, but hey, like, oil companies, y’know?
No.
SCIENCE said:
ah peak oil again
No, just manipulating the prices.
Witty Rejoinder said:
captain_spalding said:
Actually, i can supply the answer to that:Oil companies dictate, in a regular pattern that this area shall have low prices, and this area shall have higher prices.
This creates an artificial atmosphere of ‘scarcity, which prompts people to ‘panic buy’ as we saw with toilet paper recently, albeit in a rather milder way. Petrol companies sell a goodly amount of fuel at the inflated price, boosting their profits.When it’s your area’s turn for low prices, people hasten to take advantage of it, and buy fuel more frequently, boosting volume of sales and thus boosting profits, even if the price per litre is lower.
It’s win/win. Totally unnecessary, and governments could do something about it, but hey, like, oil companies, y’know?
No.
The better explanation being…?
captain_spalding said:
Actually, i can supply the answer to that:Oil companies dictate, in a regular pattern that this area shall have low prices, and this area shall have higher prices.
This creates an artificial atmosphere of ‘scarcity, which prompts people to ‘panic buy’ as we saw with toilet paper recently, albeit in a rather milder way. Petrol companies sell a goodly amount of fuel at the inflated price, boosting their profits.When it’s your area’s turn for low prices, people hasten to take advantage of it, and buy fuel more frequently, boosting volume of sales and thus boosting profits, even if the price per litre is lower.
It’s win/win. Totally unnecessary, and governments could do something about it, but hey, like, oil companies, y’know?
Have a look at the average graphs (you can change the city on the graph). I think the effects are very localised in a couple of places.
https://petrolspy.com.au/map/graph/melbourne
At least my explanation goes some way to explaining why, when prices are high in Brisbane, they’‘re lower here. Then, prices go up here, and (guess what?) they fall in Brisbane.
A week or two later, the reverse happens again.
Over and over.
Same thing happens in other regional areas. This area goes up, that one goes down. A bit farther on, the reverse.
captain_spalding said:
At least my explanation goes some way to explaining why, when prices are high in Brisbane, they’‘re lower here. Then, prices go up here, and (guess what?) they fall in Brisbane.A week or two later, the reverse happens again.
Over and over.
Same thing happens in other regional areas. This area goes up, that one goes down. A bit farther on, the reverse.
we don’t get fuel cycles in regional WA. the p[rice is pretty static for long periods. It is cheap ATM.
mollwollfumble said:
Anyone else notice that petrol prices jumped from 99 c/litre to 135 c/litre in a single day? It happened just over a week ago.
Yep, price of crude has rebounded.
Retail sales were way up today and a small wage increase as well.
I think we’re going to come out the other side looking pretty good compared to other comparable countries.
And we’re not taking any shit from China which is also good.
When we lived in Bundaberg, for some years, fuel came by ship and was unloaded to the bulk depot at Burnett Heads.
From there, it was transported by tanker truck throughout the area.
Somehow, petrol stations in Gin Gin were able to consistently sell fuel at lower prices than stations in Bundaberg.
When asked why this was so, oil companies said that it cost more to transport fuel the extra distance from the highway into Bundaberg.
Although the tanker trucks that took the fuel to Gin Gin actually went from Burnett Heads through Bundaberg to go to Gin Gin some 50 kms farther west.
So, whatever reasonable explanations you might have heard from industry sources are likely to be utter bullshit.
captain_spalding said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
captain_spalding said:
Actually, i can supply the answer to that:Oil companies dictate, in a regular pattern that this area shall have low prices, and this area shall have higher prices.
This creates an artificial atmosphere of ‘scarcity, which prompts people to ‘panic buy’ as we saw with toilet paper recently, albeit in a rather milder way. Petrol companies sell a goodly amount of fuel at the inflated price, boosting their profits.When it’s your area’s turn for low prices, people hasten to take advantage of it, and buy fuel more frequently, boosting volume of sales and thus boosting profits, even if the price per litre is lower.
It’s win/win. Totally unnecessary, and governments could do something about it, but hey, like, oil companies, y’know?
No.
The better explanation being…?
The same explanation for specials at the supermarket where products are routinely half price for this week compared to the last. When petrol is cheap the retailers are hoping to spur sales and live with less profits. After a while they raise prices because petrol has been cheap for so long it has been hurting their margins. People get into the habit of buying when it is cheap if they can manage it but sooner or later the price has to go up. The major retailers usually act in unison because it is a bit of an oligopoly but the idea that they profit more from both low and high prices is wrong.
Rule 303 said:
Rule 303 said:
Witty Rejoinder said:It’s just the usual petrol price cycle. You’ve never noticed it before?
The ‘usual cycle’ varies according to where you are. In Melbourne, it jumps 20c every third Tuesday. This jump, however, came after a long period of slow decline that lined up with the traffic volume on the roads.
I’m sorry, we are now on our second 20c jump cycle since the long drop.
https://petrolspy.com.au/map/graph/melbourne
Ooh, ahh. Not here, single ginormous jump. Thanks for the chart. It’s dropped back from 135 to 124 since the jump here. I should hold off until it drops to 115 or less.
JudgeMental said:
captain_spalding said:
At least my explanation goes some way to explaining why, when prices are high in Brisbane, they’‘re lower here. Then, prices go up here, and (guess what?) they fall in Brisbane.A week or two later, the reverse happens again.
Over and over.
Same thing happens in other regional areas. This area goes up, that one goes down. A bit farther on, the reverse.
we don’t get fuel cycles in regional WA. the p
The different fuels move at different times, too. Diesel is a lot more stable than the others.
captain_spalding said:
When we lived in Bundaberg, for some years, fuel came by ship and was unloaded to the bulk depot at Burnett Heads.From there, it was transported by tanker truck throughout the area.
Somehow, petrol stations in Gin Gin were able to consistently sell fuel at lower prices than stations in Bundaberg.
When asked why this was so, oil companies said that it cost more to transport fuel the extra distance from the highway into Bundaberg.
Although the tanker trucks that took the fuel to Gin Gin actually went from Burnett Heads through Bundaberg to go to Gin Gin some 50 kms farther west.
So, whatever reasonable explanations you might have heard from industry sources are likely to be utter bullshit.
Fuel prices in Aratula and Stanthorpe are always cheaper than in Brisbane, inexplicable.
captain_spalding said:
So, whatever reasonable explanations you might have heard from industry sources are likely to be utter bullshit.
This has been my experience, also.
Rule 303 said:
JudgeMental said:
captain_spalding said:
At least my explanation goes some way to explaining why, when prices are high in Brisbane, they’‘re lower here. Then, prices go up here, and (guess what?) they fall in Brisbane.A week or two later, the reverse happens again.
Over and over.
Same thing happens in other regional areas. This area goes up, that one goes down. A bit farther on, the reverse.
we don’t get fuel cycles in regional WA. the p
The different fuels move at different times, too. Diesel is a lot more stable than the others.
yep, diesel hasn’t gone down as much.
Witty Rejoinder said:
captain_spalding said:
Witty Rejoinder said:No.
The better explanation being…?
The same explanation for specials at the supermarket where products are routinely half price for this week compared to the last. When petrol is cheap the retailers are hoping to spur sales and live with less profits. After a while they raise prices because petrol has been cheap for so long it has been hurting their margins. People get into the habit of buying when it is cheap if they can manage it but sooner or later the price has to go up. The major retailers usually act in unison because it is a bit of an oligopoly but the idea that they profit more from both low and high prices is wrong.
Still doesn’t explain why oil companies feel the need to regularly ‘spur sales’ in this area, while not feeling the same inclination in that area, only to reverse the situation in week or two, and then reverse it again soon after that, ad infinitum
Either they’re manipulating it to create artificial ‘shortages’‘and ‘bonanzas’ as i suggest, or they’re utter and total incompetents in charge of enormous industries.
captain_spalding said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
captain_spalding said:The better explanation being…?
The same explanation for specials at the supermarket where products are routinely half price for this week compared to the last. When petrol is cheap the retailers are hoping to spur sales and live with less profits. After a while they raise prices because petrol has been cheap for so long it has been hurting their margins. People get into the habit of buying when it is cheap if they can manage it but sooner or later the price has to go up. The major retailers usually act in unison because it is a bit of an oligopoly but the idea that they profit more from both low and high prices is wrong.
Still doesn’t explain why oil companies feel the need to regularly ‘spur sales’ in this area, while not feeling the same inclination in that area, only to reverse the situation in week or two, and then reverse it again soon after that, ad infinitum
Either they’re manipulating it to create artificial ‘shortages’‘and ‘bonanzas’ as i suggest, or they’re utter and total incompetents in charge of enormous industries.
Wonder if there’s a little red light flashing in TRDs basement…
captain_spalding said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
captain_spalding said:The better explanation being…?
The same explanation for specials at the supermarket where products are routinely half price for this week compared to the last. When petrol is cheap the retailers are hoping to spur sales and live with less profits. After a while they raise prices because petrol has been cheap for so long it has been hurting their margins. People get into the habit of buying when it is cheap if they can manage it but sooner or later the price has to go up. The major retailers usually act in unison because it is a bit of an oligopoly but the idea that they profit more from both low and high prices is wrong.
Still doesn’t explain why oil companies feel the need to regularly ‘spur sales’ in this area, while not feeling the same inclination in that area, only to reverse the situation in week or two, and then reverse it again soon after that, ad infinitum
Either they’re manipulating it to create artificial ‘shortages’‘and ‘bonanzas’ as i suggest, or they’re utter and total incompetents in charge of enormous industries.
Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane follow the +20c every third week pattern with surprising regularity. I’ve been watching it for about two years. Perth always seems to follow that weekly sawtooth pattern. Hobart, Adelaide, Darwin and Canberra always seem to move slower, not following any particular pattern. I have no good explanation for any of this.
captain_spalding said:
they’re manipulating it to create artificial ‘shortages’‘and ‘bonanzas’ as i suggest, or they’re utter and total incompetents
NO
No Way OPEC Would Do Any Of
Damn West Taiwan and their lies… they claimed to be the first but everyone else got in before them again, damn them.
Scientists in Italy have found traces of the new coronavirus in wastewater collected from Milan and Turin in December 2019 — suggesting COVID-19 was already circulating in northern Italy before China reported the first cases. Scientists said the detection of traces of the virus before the end of 2019 was consistent with evidence emerging in other countries that COVID-19 may have been circulating before China reported the first cases of a new disease on December 31. A study in May by French scientists found that a man was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, nearly a month before France confirmed its first cases.
Speaking of liars Spain get caught red-handed blue-pilled again adding more than 1,000 more fatalities to its coronavirus death toll in the first update in nearly two weeks after officials revised a backlog of inconsistent data. At least 28,313 people have died through Friday with a COVID-19 diagnosis, health officials — authorities had stopped updating the tally at 27,136 on June 7.
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.
Other countries that have had an unexpected rise (or delayed fall) in new cases over the past week include Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Sweden, Indonesia, Portugal, Ukraine, Poland, Philippines.
Why all these countries should decide to synchronise their unexpected rise in new cases is beyond me.
Chile is rising through the charts, having overtaken both Iran and Germany this week for number of cases.
mollwollfumble said:
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.
presumably you have to be out of 1st to be 2nd but hey
mollwollfumble said:
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.Other countries that have had an unexpected rise (or delayed fall) in new cases over the past week include Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Sweden, Indonesia, Portugal, Ukraine, Poland, Philippines.
Why all these countries should decide to synchronise their unexpected rise in new cases is beyond me.
Chile is rising through the charts, having overtaken both Iran and Germany this week for number of cases.
SCIENCE said:
Speaking of liars Spain get caughtred-handedblue-pilled again adding more than 1,000 more fatalities to its coronavirus death toll in the first update in nearly two weeks after officials revised a backlog of inconsistent data. At least 28,313 people have died through Friday with a COVID-19 diagnosis, health officials — authorities had stopped updating the tally at 27,136 on June 7.
Speaking of correct response to Covid-19.
Of the countries in the top 50 cases, only Spain, China and Switzerland have handled the outbreak correctly. No other country in the top 50 has successfully stopped the spread of Covid-19. Spain is the most significant success story.
SCIENCE said:
Damn West Taiwan and their lies… they claimed to be the first but everyone else got in before them again, damn them.COVID-19 may have been in Italy as early as December
Scientists in Italy have found traces of the new coronavirus in wastewater collected from Milan and Turin in December 2019 — suggesting COVID-19 was already circulating in northern Italy before China reported the first cases. Scientists said the detection of traces of the virus before the end of 2019 was consistent with evidence emerging in other countries that COVID-19 may have been circulating before China reported the first cases of a new disease on December 31. A study in May by French scientists found that a man was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, nearly a month before France confirmed its first cases.
That actually makes sense. The high mortality strain that ripped through Europe didn’t originate in China. So it would be more fair to say that Covid-19 began in Italy.
Working out a prediction of the world death toll from Covid-19 now. Result:
1,000,000 dead from official figures
1,400,000 dead in total (including those who died at home without ever being tested).
The pandemic is very close to 50% over.
This death toll is significantly higher than my last prediction (based on three month old data), because back then the decline after peak had been found to be only slightly slower than the rise to peak (based on experiences from China, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, South Korea). Now we find many countries, the USA in particular, where the decline in new cases after peak is very slow.
mollwollfumble said:
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.Other countries that have had an unexpected rise (or delayed fall) in new cases over the past week include Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Sweden, Indonesia, Portugal, Ukraine, Poland, Philippines.
Why all these countries should decide to synchronise their unexpected rise in new cases is beyond me.
Chile is rising through the charts, having overtaken both Iran and Germany this week for number of cases.
Add Romania, Israel and S. Korea to the countries with an unexpected rise in new cases this week.
SCIENCE said:
Speaking of liars Spain get caughtred-handedblue-pilled again adding more than 1,000 more fatalities to its coronavirus death toll in the first update in nearly two weeks after officials revised a backlog of inconsistent data. At least 28,313 people have died through Friday with a COVID-19 diagnosis, health officials — authorities had stopped updating the tally at 27,136 on June 7.
Speaking of correct response to Covid-19.
Of the countries in the top 50 cases, only Spain, China and Switzerland have handled the outbreak correctly. No other country in the top 50 has successfully stopped the spread of Covid-19. Spain is the most significant success story.
SCIENCE said:
Damn West Taiwan and their lies… they claimed to be the first but everyone else got in before them again, damn them.COVID-19 may have been in Italy as early as December
Scientists in Italy have found traces of the new coronavirus in wastewater collected from Milan and Turin in December 2019 — suggesting COVID-19 was already circulating in northern Italy before China reported the first cases. Scientists said the detection of traces of the virus before the end of 2019 was consistent with evidence emerging in other countries that COVID-19 may have been circulating before China reported the first cases of a new disease on December 31. A study in May by French scientists found that a man was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, nearly a month before France confirmed its first cases.
That actually makes sense. The high mortality strain that ripped through Europe definitely didn’t originate in China.
mollwollfumble said:
Working out a prediction of the world death toll from Covid-19 now. Result:
1,000,000 dead from official figures
1,400,000 dead in total (including those who died at home without ever being tested).
The pandemic is very close to 50% over.This death toll is significantly higher than my last prediction (based on three month old data), because back then the decline after peak had been found to be only slightly slower than the rise to peak (based on experiences from China, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, South Korea). Now we find many countries, the USA in particular, where the decline in new cases after peak is very slow.
mollwollfumble said:
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.Other countries that have had an unexpected rise (or delayed fall) in new cases over the past week include Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Sweden, Indonesia, Portugal, Ukraine, Poland, Philippines.
Why all these countries should decide to synchronise their unexpected rise in new cases is beyond me.
Chile is rising through the charts, having overtaken both Iran and Germany this week for number of cases.
Add Romania, Israel and S. Korea to the countries with an unexpected rise in new cases this week.
SCIENCE said:
Speaking of liars Spain get caughtred-handedblue-pilled again adding more than 1,000 more fatalities to its coronavirus death toll in the first update in nearly two weeks after officials revised a backlog of inconsistent data. At least 28,313 people have died through Friday with a COVID-19 diagnosis, health officials — authorities had stopped updating the tally at 27,136 on June 7.
Speaking of correct response to Covid-19.
Of the countries in the top 50 cases, only Spain, China and Switzerland have handled the outbreak correctly. No other country in the top 50 has successfully stopped the spread of Covid-19. Spain is the most significant success story.
SCIENCE said:
Damn West Taiwan and their lies… they claimed to be the first but everyone else got in before them again, damn them.COVID-19 may have been in Italy as early as December
Scientists in Italy have found traces of the new coronavirus in wastewater collected from Milan and Turin in December 2019 — suggesting COVID-19 was already circulating in northern Italy before China reported the first cases. Scientists said the detection of traces of the virus before the end of 2019 was consistent with evidence emerging in other countries that COVID-19 may have been circulating before China reported the first cases of a new disease on December 31. A study in May by French scientists found that a man was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, nearly a month before France confirmed its first cases.
That actually makes sense. The high mortality strain that ripped through Europe definitely didn’t originate in China.
But the Chinese were in Italy in a big way at the time so whether it was in Italy or not it still came from China.
roughbarked said:
mollwollfumble said:
Working out a prediction of the world death toll from Covid-19 now. Result:
1,000,000 dead from official figures
1,400,000 dead in total (including those who died at home without ever being tested).
The pandemic is very close to 50% over.This death toll is significantly higher than my last prediction (based on three month old data), because back then the decline after peak had been found to be only slightly slower than the rise to peak (based on experiences from China, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, South Korea). Now we find many countries, the USA in particular, where the decline in new cases after peak is very slow.
mollwollfumble said:
What the heck, the CDC’s prediction of a second wave for the USA could actually be right. There’s been a slight rise in new cases over the past week.Other countries that have had an unexpected rise (or delayed fall) in new cases over the past week include Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Sweden, Indonesia, Portugal, Ukraine, Poland, Philippines.
Why all these countries should decide to synchronise their unexpected rise in new cases is beyond me.
Chile is rising through the charts, having overtaken both Iran and Germany this week for number of cases.
Add Romania, Israel and S. Korea to the countries with an unexpected rise in new cases this week.
Speaking of correct response to Covid-19.
Of the countries in the top 50 cases, only Spain, China and Switzerland have handled the outbreak correctly. No other country in the top 50 has successfully stopped the spread of Covid-19. Spain is the most significant success story.
SCIENCE said:
Damn West Taiwan and their lies… they claimed to be the first but everyone else got in before them again, damn them.COVID-19 may have been in Italy as early as December
Scientists in Italy have found traces of the new coronavirus in wastewater collected from Milan and Turin in December 2019 — suggesting COVID-19 was already circulating in northern Italy before China reported the first cases. Scientists said the detection of traces of the virus before the end of 2019 was consistent with evidence emerging in other countries that COVID-19 may have been circulating before China reported the first cases of a new disease on December 31. A study in May by French scientists found that a man was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, nearly a month before France confirmed its first cases.
That actually makes sense. The high mortality strain that ripped through Europe definitely didn’t originate in China.
But the Chinese were in Italy in a big way at the time so whether it was in Italy or not it still came from China.
What do we mean, there have been plenty of Australians in the USSA all this time, we therefore advance the more likely hypothesis that it came from Australia and they caught it from us.
The world’s next coronavirus hotspot is emerging next door
By James Massola
June 19, 2020 — 4.25pm
Most south-east Asian countries have successfully flattened their coronavirus infection rates, but Indonesia is losing its battle with COVID-19.
Australia’s giant northern neighbour is now poised on the edge of nasty precipice, with the national government showing few signs it is willing to take the tough decisions needed to clamp down on rapidly growing infection rates.
While the world’s attention is focused on the United States, India, Russia and Brazil, which are recording daily infection rates in the tens of thousands, Indonesia is currently flying under the radar
Read more:
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/the-world-s-next-coronavirus-hotspot-is-emerging-next-door-20200619-p5549q.html
Brazil have set a new world record with 55,000 new cases in a day.
Things going pearshaped in Pakistan and Bangladesh too.
Ministers have been accused of playing down the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic after it emerged that more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days – in stark contrast with daily tolls announced by the government.
According to an analysis of official figures, the darkest day came on 8 April as the country prepared for Easter under lockdown, when a record 1,445 people died from Covid-19 in 24 hours.
The figures – encompassing deaths in hospitals, care homes and private residences – are far higher than the numbers announced by ministers during that period at the daily Downing Street briefings, as the pandemic peaked faster than forecast.
Critics say ministers should have more clearly underlined that the reported death tolls were underestimates of the true tallies as they only counted deaths in hospitals after positive Covid-19 tests, excluding thousands who died in care homes.
On 9 April the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, standing in for the hospitalised prime minister, said the death toll had increased by 881 on the previous day. The actual death toll was 64% higher than that.
dv said:
Ministers have been accused of playing down the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic after it emerged that more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days – in stark contrast with daily tolls announced by the government.
According to an analysis of official figures, the darkest day came on 8 April as the country prepared for Easter under lockdown, when a record 1,445 people died from Covid-19 in 24 hours.
The figures – encompassing deaths in hospitals, care homes and private residences – are far higher than the numbers announced by ministers during that period at the daily Downing Street briefings, as the pandemic peaked faster than forecast.
Critics say ministers should have more clearly underlined that the reported death tolls were underestimates of the true tallies as they only counted deaths in hospitals after positive Covid-19 tests, excluding thousands who died in care homes.
On 9 April the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, standing in for the hospitalised prime minister, said the death toll had increased by 881 on the previous day. The actual death toll was 64% higher than that.
Here’s the URL
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/19/over-1000-deaths-day-uk-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
party_pants said:
Brazil have set a new world record with 55,000 new cases in a day.Things going pearshaped in Pakistan and Bangladesh too.
Just saw that, takes them over 1 million cases.
The rest of S America not looking good either.
USA back over 30,000 as well.
dv said:
Ministers have been accused of playing down the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic after it emerged that more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days – in stark contrast with daily tolls announced by the government.
According to an analysis of official figures, the darkest day came on 8 April as the country prepared for Easter under lockdown, when a record 1,445 people died from Covid-19 in 24 hours.
The figures – encompassing deaths in hospitals, care homes and private residences – are far higher than the numbers announced by ministers during that period at the daily Downing Street briefings, as the pandemic peaked faster than forecast.
Critics say ministers should have more clearly underlined that the reported death tolls were underestimates of the true tallies as they only counted deaths in hospitals after positive Covid-19 tests, excluding thousands who died in care homes.
On 9 April the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, standing in for the hospitalised prime minister, said the death toll had increased by 881 on the previous day. The actual death toll was 64% higher than that.
How utterly, miserably, pathetically and contemptuously deceitful do you have to be before you start lying to your own people about how many are dying?
party_pants said:
Brazil have set a new world record with 55,000 new cases in a day.Things going pearshaped in Pakistan and Bangladesh too.
There must be a hell of a lot of testing going on. I have no idea how many tests are being done in Australia, but to find 55,000 new cases, you would have to test, well, lots more than that.
Rule 303 said:
How utterly, miserably, pathetically and contemptuously deceitful do you have to be before you start lying to your own people about how many are dying?
You have to be the kind of person who not only employs and listens to someone like Dominic Cummings, but who will defend him when he’s not only caught violating rules that apply to everyone else in the country, but boasts about it.
The Rev Dodgson said:
USA back over 30,000 as well.
Looking at their trend over the last couple of weeks there is a hint of a second wave starting.
party_pants said:
The Rev Dodgson said:USA back over 30,000 as well.
Looking at their trend over the last couple of weeks there is a hint of a second wave starting.
Still a first wave for most of the new cases in the US. Even California which had cases at the beginning and locked down early has not had a lull to describe it as a second wave.
captain_spalding said:
Rule 303 said:How utterly, miserably, pathetically and contemptuously deceitful do you have to be before you start lying to your own people about how many are dying?
You have to be the kind of person who not only employs and listens to someone like Dominic Cummings, but who will defend him when he’s not only caught violating rules that apply to everyone else in the country, but boasts about it.
Modern politics seems to reward the worst possible people
Witty Rejoinder said:
party_pants said:
The Rev Dodgson said:USA back over 30,000 as well.
Looking at their trend over the last couple of weeks there is a hint of a second wave starting.
Still a first wave for most of the new cases in the US. Even California which had cases at the beginning and locked down early has not had a lull to describe it as a second wave.
I was just looking at the daily cases graph for the whole country, not each individual state. There was a definite downward trend in daily new case during the month of May. Now since early June daily new cases seems to be going upward again. It could be a case of the first wave reaching into places which had so far remained under control and not badly affected, rather than a second wave in places that were already badly hit in April.
captain_spalding said:
Rule 303 said:How utterly, miserably, pathetically and contemptuously deceitful do you have to be before you start lying to your own people about how many are dying?
You have to be the kind of person who not only employs and listens to someone like Dominic Cummings, but who will defend him when he’s not only caught violating rules that apply to everyone else in the country, but boasts about it.
Oh, they’re fucked. This is the same mob who brought about Brexit thinking the UK would be better off without Europe. That looks like collapsing into a pile of shit now. The EU parliament have just voted that any trade deal involving the UK must include the level playing field (i.e. maintaining equivalent standards on safety, health, workers rights, the environment etc) or they get no deal. They are going to be sooooo fucked come January. This is what ingrained British exceptionalism and upper class twitocracy leads to.
Should be noted that the official figures are STILL undercounting in the UK. ONS’s report for the period up to 5 June is 47387, and that’s just for England and Wales, and that was more than 2 weeks ago: whole of UK at the current date is probably over 50000.
Whereas the announced numbers for the whole of UK yesterday are 42461.
captain_spalding said:
buffy said:
captain_spalding said:The USN can be real shits when it comes to things like this. It’s rarely about working out what actually happened, or what was/needed to be done, but about making sure that someone gets the blame so that people higher up the ladder aren’t embarrassed.
They do it to their own people, and they’ve done it to us. And our Navy has done it, too.
Read ‘In The Wake Of’ by Jo Stevenson, the story of the Melbourne/Evans collision and its aftermath, and be gobsmacked at the travesty that passed for an inquiry and the injustice done to a good man.
>>making sure that someone gets the blame so that people higher up the ladder aren’t embarrassed.<<
To the uninitiated like me, it certainly reads that way. Wasn’t the bloke asking for help from the beginning and not getting it?
NO, IT’S ALL HIS FAULT! HE DIDN’T ASK! IF HE DID, WE DIDN’T KNOW ABOUT IT! HE’S TO BLAME! GOT IT?
look we don’t mean to be all Vietnam or anything but doesn’t this kind of thing only happen in Wuhan
I reckon if you arrive in Australia and test positive for Covid-19 while still in quarantine, your case should be counted in the country you came from.
how are the authorities dealing with those who get infected on multiple point transits
Rule 303 said:
I reckon if you arrive in Australia and test positive for Covid-19 while still in quarantine, your case should be counted in the country you came from.
It’s not like golf.
Witty Rejoinder said:
Rule 303 said:
I reckon if you arrive in Australia and test positive for Covid-19 while still in quarantine, your case should be counted in the country you came from.
It’s not like golf.
but Trump cheats at both so it must be identical
Victoria will bring back tougher coronavirus restrictions, limiting gatherings in homes to five people, in a bid to address a recent spike in case numbers.
Premier Daniel Andrews said today’s case numbers were the highest they had been in two months, with 25 new cases identified overnight.
“Since April … half of all of our new cases have come from family-to-family transmission,” Mr Andrews said.
“I’m frustrated by it. I’m disappointed by it.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
Witty Rejoinder said:
Rule 303 said:
I reckon if you arrive in Australia and test positive for Covid-19 while still in quarantine, your case should be counted in the country you came from.
It’s not like golf.
It is like carbon emissions accounting.
sarahs mum said:
Victoria will bring back tougher coronavirus restrictions, limiting gatherings in homes to five people, in a bid to address a recent spike in case numbers.Premier Daniel Andrews said today’s case numbers were the highest they had been in two months, with 25 new cases identified overnight.
“Since April … half of all of our new cases have come from family-to-family transmission,” Mr Andrews said.
“I’m frustrated by it. I’m disappointed by it.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
still, measures to reduce spread seem to be a good idea
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/essendons-conor-mckenna-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/12376874
Probably Another Illegal Healthcare Workers Party
Tighter restrictions coming your way, Victoria.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
Michael V said:
Tighter restrictions coming your way, Victoria.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
Just saw the item on the ABC news about that. Seems spreading it is happening in family groups inside houses, and not from the protest marches. Could be the difference between strangers in a crowd not touching each other and family huggings and kissings. Oh, and that footballer. Must have picked it up from a gathering, he’s been back in Australia long enough to have done quarantine and got back into training. Many tests, all negative, until an anomalous result today. Apparently.
buffy said:
Michael V said:
Tighter restrictions coming your way, Victoria.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
Just saw the item on the ABC news about that. Seems spreading it is happening in family groups inside houses, and not from the protest marches. Could be the difference between strangers in a crowd not touching each other and family huggings and kissings. Oh, and that footballer. Must have picked it up from a gathering, he’s been back in Australia long enough to have done quarantine and got back into training. Many tests, all negative, until an anomalous result today. Apparently.
fair enough, if we’d caught something at a protest march we’d be saying we caught it at home too
SCIENCE said:
buffy said:
Michael V said:
Tighter restrictions coming your way, Victoria.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
Just saw the item on the ABC news about that. Seems spreading it is happening in family groups inside houses, and not from the protest marches. Could be the difference between strangers in a crowd not touching each other and family huggings and kissings. Oh, and that footballer. Must have picked it up from a gathering, he’s been back in Australia long enough to have done quarantine and got back into training. Many tests, all negative, until an anomalous result today. Apparently.
fair enough, if we’d caught something at a protest march we’d be saying we caught it at home too
Do you go to huggy protests?
buffy said:
Do you go to huggy protests?
not sure what it means so
never! Can’t catch COVID-19 from trees either
Michael V said:
Tighter restrictions coming your way, Victoria.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/victoria-coronavirus-numbers-increase-again-with-more-new-cases/12376316
we should be pursuing an elimination strategy. If a job’s worth doing, it’s worth doing well
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/200620-Statement-From-The-Premier.pdf
COVID-19 Is Far More Lethal Than Influenza
https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2
disclaimer / disattribution :: not our words but we’re inclined to agree
ABC News:
What’s changing under Victoria’s tightened coronavirus restrictions?
By Will Jackson
Due to Victoria’s unfortunate coronavirus pandemic relapse, the state’s health authorities are tightening up restrictions again. Here’s what it means for you.
Remember, you heard it predicted on this Forum first.
I really don’t like the way things have been going bad in the past week in the following countries. These are countries where Covid-19 cases were previously sort of under control.
USA
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
Sweden
Indonesia
Portugal
Ukraine
Poland
Philippines
Romania
Iraq
Israel
S. Korea
mollwollfumble said:
I really don’t like the way things have been going bad in the past week in the following countries. These are countries where Covid-19 cases were previously sort of under control.
Complacency.
And, a lot of the countries there are the ‘so peasants die? So what?’ sort of country (USA included).
Sweden – well, Swedes consider themselves to be the almost-nearly-perfect people. It’s just that this particular exercise in smugness didn’t work out quite the way they thought it would.
Under control? Only one of those could be even considered close to under control….
furious said:
- These are countries where Covid-19 cases were previously sort of under control.
Under control? Only one of those could be even considered close to under control….
Yeah, Sweden never even attempted control.
captain_spalding said:
mollwollfumble said:
I really don’t like the way things have been going bad in the past week in the following countries. These are countries where Covid-19 cases were previously sort of under control.Complacency.
And, a lot of the countries there are the ‘so peasants die? So what?’ sort of country (USA included).
Sweden – well, Swedes consider themselves to be the almost-nearly-perfect people. It’s just that this particular exercise in smugness didn’t work out quite the way they thought it would.
agree but add there is likely much more to it than just that, along the lines of
this is what happens when you have idiots in charge of powerful countries telling the rest of the world “see this is no problem at all, it’ll disappear like magic, we’ll just get our flocks and play for immunity” and it gets out of hand everywhere else
the reimported bullshit will almost never end
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/pandemic-may-be-contributing-to-increase-in-male-genital-injuries-ubc-researchers-say-1.4990960
Just read
dv said:
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/pandemic-may-be-contributing-to-increase-in-male-genital-injuries-ubc-researchers-say-1.4990960Just read
So woman on top should be discouraged then.
sibeen said:
dv said:
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/pandemic-may-be-contributing-to-increase-in-male-genital-injuries-ubc-researchers-say-1.4990960Just read
So woman on top should be discouraged then.
and we’ll know more in 9 months
from something previously mentioned, but a bit more significant
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/essendons-conor-mckenna-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/12376874
McLachlan said all Essendon players were tested on Friday night, and McKenna was the only one to test positive. He said McKenna had been asymptomatic.
McKenna was retested on Saturday morning and returned another positive result.
so we now have a situation where against best medical advice, countries have been setting up mass incubators for viral mutation
we now have virus imports that (A) seem frequently asymptomatic or (B) have prolonged eclipse / incubation periods
¿ how long (if ever) do we think the authorities will wise up and account for these factors, and increase screening or prolong quarantine, at least for cases and contacts where said factors may be in play ?
The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released a forecast suggesting there will be between 129,000 and 145,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the US by July 11.
Sure … LOL.
—
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus is “accelerating” and Thursday was the highest single-day rise in cases since the start of the pandemic.
/me stops laughing
SCIENCE said:
from something previously mentioned, but a bit more significanthttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/essendons-conor-mckenna-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/12376874
McKenna returned to his native Ireland during the COVID-19-enforced shutdown, but arrived back in May and has been training with his Bombers teammates since his 14-day quarantine period ended. He has not played a game yet in 2020.McLachlan said all Essendon players were tested on Friday night, and McKenna was the only one to test positive. He said McKenna had been asymptomatic.
McKenna was retested on Saturday morning and returned another positive result.
so we now have a situation where against best medical advice, countries have been setting up mass incubators for viral mutation
we now have virus imports that (A) seem frequently asymptomatic or (B) have prolonged eclipse / incubation periods
¿ how long (if ever) do we think the authorities will wise up and account for these factors, and increase screening or prolong quarantine, at least for cases and contacts where said factors may be in play ?
Let’s just wait and see where contact tracing takes this. I’m sure it will be thorough and extensive. He may have been a naughty boy for all we know.
SCIENCE said:
The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released a forecast suggesting there will be between 129,000 and 145,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the US by July 11.Sure … LOL.
—
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus is “accelerating” and Thursday was the highest single-day rise in cases since the start of the pandemic.
/me stops laughing
The top number seems believable. 145000 could be about the mark.
SCIENCE said:
The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released a forecast suggesting there will be between 129,000 and 145,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the US by July 11.Sure … LOL.
—
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus is “accelerating” and Thursday was the highest single-day rise in cases since the start of the pandemic.
/me stops laughing
Are the US CDC saying anything about this being a peak, or just a milestone?
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released a forecast suggesting there will be between 129,000 and 145,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the US by July 11.Sure … LOL.
—
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus is “accelerating” and Thursday was the highest single-day rise in cases since the start of the pandemic.
/me stops laughing
Are the US CDC saying anything about this being a peak, or just a milestone?
Just an estimate of the number by july 11
dv said:
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released a forecast suggesting there will be between 129,000 and 145,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the US by July 11.Sure … LOL.
—
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus is “accelerating” and Thursday was the highest single-day rise in cases since the start of the pandemic.
/me stops laughing
Are the US CDC saying anything about this being a peak, or just a milestone?
Just an estimate of the number by july 11
Well in that case, as you said, that sounds like a reasonable prediction.
more than 380,500 confirmed cases and more than 12,500 deaths
despite the high caseload, the Indian Government maintains there is no community transmission
“India is such a large country and prevalence is very low. India is not in community transmission,” Balram Bhargava, director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said last week.
“India has not declared community transmission simply because there isn’t any,” said economics professor Raghbendra Jha, head of the Australia South Asia Research Centre at ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy.
“India has a high number of cases but the number of deaths is low in comparison to many other much more developed countries.”
Exceptional is the word for it, the country has been exceptional in its COVID-19 performance. They are democratic and have embraced Western Imperialism to a fault. We should believe their claims.
SCIENCE said:
India has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases, but the Government denies community transmission
more than 380,500 confirmed cases and more than 12,500 deaths
despite the high caseload, the Indian Government maintains there is no community transmission
“India is such a large country and prevalence is very low. India is not in community transmission,” Balram Bhargava, director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said last week.
“India has not declared community transmission simply because there isn’t any,” said economics professor Raghbendra Jha, head of the Australia South Asia Research Centre at ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy.
“India has a high number of cases but the number of deaths is low in comparison to many other much more developed countries.”
Exceptional is the word for it, the country has been exceptional in its COVID-19 performance. They are democratic and have embraced Western Imperialism to a fault. We should believe their claims.
I’ve been wondering about this. How efficacious is “social isolation”? To answer that we need a control country, one without social isolation. A country like India.
I’ve seen no correlations in the early part of the contagion (prior to peak) between social isolation and either the rate of increase in the number of cases or in the peak number of cases as a fraction of total population. After peak is a totally different story, but India has not yet reached peak.
You may ask – “how can social isolation be ineffective?” To which I can respond “how is it that social isolation and lockdown didn’t stop me from catching a cold?”
Anyway, India is the second most unhealthy country on the planet. The worst being Nigeria. Both are worth watching. So far I’ve been pleasantly surprised by both being no worse than the USA.
mollwollfumble said:
SCIENCE said:
India has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases, but the Government denies community transmission
more than 380,500 confirmed cases and more than 12,500 deaths
despite the high caseload, the Indian Government maintains there is no community transmission
“India is such a large country and prevalence is very low. India is not in community transmission,” Balram Bhargava, director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said last week.
“India has not declared community transmission simply because there isn’t any,” said economics professor Raghbendra Jha, head of the Australia South Asia Research Centre at ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy.
“India has a high number of cases but the number of deaths is low in comparison to many other much more developed countries.”
Exceptional is the word for it, the country has been exceptional in its COVID-19 performance. They are democratic and have embraced Western Imperialism to a fault. We should believe their claims.
I’ve been wondering about this. How efficacious is “social isolation”? To answer that we need a control country, one without social isolation. A country like India.
I’ve seen no correlations in the early part of the contagion (prior to peak) between social isolation and either the rate of increase in the number of cases or in the peak number of cases as a fraction of total population. After peak is a totally different story, but India has not yet reached peak.
You may ask – “how can social isolation be ineffective?” To which I can respond “how is it that social isolation and lockdown didn’t stop me from catching a cold?”
Anyway, India is the second most unhealthy country on the planet. The worst being Nigeria. Both are worth watching. So far I’ve been pleasantly surprised by both being no worse than the USA.
Change of topic. Oh ^%$#@!.
!
mollwollfumble said:
quote]
Change of topic. Oh ^%$#@!.
oh, looks good, testing is starting to catch up
SCIENCE said:
dv said:Peak Warming Man said:
Divine Angel said:
LOL
Why would anyone want to go to Victoria, why would anyone want to go there.
To see the little penguins
It’s the place to be.
Victoria has recorded 19 new coronavirus cases overnight, the fifth day in a row of double-digit increases, prompting the Government to extend the state of emergency for a further four weeks.
It includes three new cases linked to an outbreak among contractors working at the Stamford Plaza Hotel, where returned international travellers have been quarantined, bringing the total number of cases in that cluster to 13.
There was also four new cases of travellers in hotel quarantine, three detected in routine testing and eight cases under investigation.
Ms Mikakos said the state of emergency had been extended to allow the Chief Health Officer to continue to issue fresh legal directions.
“We still have, obviously, a public health emergency in Victoria,” Ms Mikakos said.
“It is still a very serious situation.”
SCIENCE said:
mollwollfumble said:quote]
Change of topic. Oh ^%$#@!.
oh, looks good, testing is starting to catch up
speaking of testing starting to catch up, fk this guy is an arsehole, the greatest there is, the amount of shit that comes out
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/trump-tulsa-reelection-rally-covid19-crowd-size/12377556
US President Donald Trump says he ordered authorities to slow down the rate of coronavirus testing because it was adding to the number of COVID-19 infections being recorded.
Mr Trump was speaking at a re-election rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, pressing ahead with the gathering despite it being revealed that six campaign workers who helped set it up had tested positive for the virus.
“When you do testing to that extent you’re going to find more people,” Mr Trump said.
“You’re going to find more cases, so I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down please.’
“They test and they test and we got tests — people don’t know what’s going on. We got tests, ‘We got another one over here.’”
“I saved hundreds of thousands of lives.”
SCIENCE said:
SCIENCE said:
mollwollfumble said:quote]
Change of topic. Oh ^%$#@!.
oh, looks good, testing is starting to catch up
speaking of testing starting to catch up, fk this guy is an arsehole, the greatest there is, the amount of shit that comes out
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/trump-tulsa-reelection-rally-covid19-crowd-size/12377556
US President Donald Trump says he ordered authorities to slow down the rate of coronavirus testing because it was adding to the number of COVID-19 infections being recorded.
Mr Trump was speaking at a re-election rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, pressing ahead with the gathering despite it being revealed that six campaign workers who helped set it up had tested positive for the virus.
“When you do testing to that extent you’re going to find more people,” Mr Trump said.
“You’re going to find more cases, so I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down please.’
“They test and they test and we got tests — people don’t know what’s going on. We got tests, ‘We got another one over here.’”
“I saved hundreds of thousands of lives.”
Okay …
what in the sweet badgery fuck …
dv said:
SCIENCE said:
SCIENCE said:oh, looks good, testing is starting to catch up
speaking of testing starting to catch up, fk this guy is an arsehole, the greatest there is, the amount of shit that comes out
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/trump-tulsa-reelection-rally-covid19-crowd-size/12377556
US President Donald Trump says he ordered authorities to slow down the rate of coronavirus testing because it was adding to the number of COVID-19 infections being recorded.
Mr Trump was speaking at a re-election rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, pressing ahead with the gathering despite it being revealed that six campaign workers who helped set it up had tested positive for the virus.
“When you do testing to that extent you’re going to find more people,” Mr Trump said.
“You’re going to find more cases, so I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down please.’
“They test and they test and we got tests — people don’t know what’s going on. We got tests, ‘We got another one over here.’”
“I saved hundreds of thousands of lives.”
Okay …
what in the sweet badgery fuck …
he has saved HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF LIVES!
So, what is it that Victorians are doing that they shouldn’t be doing, and how do we get the dumb bastards to stop doing it?
It seems that everyone else in the country gets the message, but the Victorians appear to think they’re a special case.
captain_spalding said:
So, what is it that Victorians are doing that they shouldn’t be doing, and how do we get the dumb bastards to stop doing it?It seems that everyone else in the country gets the message, but the Victorians appear to think they’re a special case.
From the news reports…family gatherings. The outbreaks seem to be family groups. So not remembering not to hug and kiss.
buffy said:
captain_spalding said:
So, what is it that Victorians are doing that they shouldn’t be doing, and how do we get the dumb bastards to stop doing it?It seems that everyone else in the country gets the message, but the Victorians appear to think they’re a special case.
From the news reports…family gatherings. The outbreaks seem to be family groups. So not remembering not to hug and kiss.
Big fat Greek weddings etc.?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/indonesias-most-active-volcano-spews-ash-in-new-eruption/12378246
and they don’t even mean this volcano
SCIENCE said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/indonesias-most-active-volcano-spews-ash-in-new-eruption/12378246Indonesia’s most active volcano Mount Merapi spews ash into sky in new eruption
and they don’t even mean this volcano
But if you read the piece, it’s been erupting since August or something.
