Date: 17/07/2020 13:43:12
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1591278
Subject: Predicting Earthquakes
The Rev Dodgson said:
Science Show, this Saturday
Do you expect anything new?
mollwollfumble said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Science Show, this Saturday
Do you expect anything new?
Don’t know, I was sent the link by the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.
There should be new stuff, if only because computer analysis is way more powerful than it used to be.
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Science Show, this Saturday
Do you expect anything new?
Don’t know, I was sent the link by the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.
There should be new stuff, if only because computer analysis is way more powerful than it used to be.
There was/is a fellow in Esperance who was/is confident that he could predict earthquakes. Everyone thought he was crazy, which he may have been, but a kind generous person who was using his money to test his theory. You need these people more than the armchair experts without experience who can only guess at things. Even if he fails he will have learnt things that will be important to him, whilst his critics will have learnt nothing.
PermeateFree said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:Do you expect anything new?
Don’t know, I was sent the link by the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.
There should be new stuff, if only because computer analysis is way more powerful than it used to be.
There was/is a fellow in Esperance who was/is confident that he could predict earthquakes. Everyone thought he was crazy, which he may have been, but a kind generous person who was using his money to test his theory. You need these people more than the armchair experts without experience who can only guess at things. Even if he fails he will have learnt things that will be important to him, whilst his critics will have learnt nothing.
Curiosity may have killed the cat but it makes the scientist in us live.
The last time I saw any advance in the prediction of earthquakes was in 1999, with the Izmit earthquake.
Even before then, everyone had given up.
I’m still waiting for “the big one” in SanFran and LosAng.
Am I right in thinking that still no-one has the foggiest clue as to when they will occur?
mollwollfumble said:
The last time I saw any advance in the prediction of earthquakes was in 1999, with the Izmit earthquake.Even before then, everyone had given up.
I’m still waiting for “the big one” in SanFran and LosAng.
Am I right in thinking that still no-one has the foggiest clue as to when they will occur?
I’ve got money on September 2020.
Divine Angel said:
mollwollfumble said:
The last time I saw any advance in the prediction of earthquakes was in 1999, with the Izmit earthquake.Even before then, everyone had given up.
I’m still waiting for “the big one” in SanFran and LosAng.
Am I right in thinking that still no-one has the foggiest clue as to when they will occur?
I’ve got money on September 2020.
That’s a good point. There probably is a lot of betting money on when they will occur. I don’t see where on the web.
Not this paper “https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/181/1/382/718626” because that is only about a different approach to calculate betting odds for earthquakes.
This website is just a broken link: “www.gamingzion.com › Gambling News. May 11, 2020 – Geology Make Shake Up The Future Of Online Gambling. You May Soon Be Able To Bet On Earthquakes At Bet365.” Not likely, as Bet365 only takes bets on sporting events.
mollwollfumble said:
The last time I saw any advance in the prediction of earthquakes was in 1999, with the Izmit earthquake.Even before then, everyone had given up.
I’m still waiting for “the big one” in SanFran and LosAng.
Am I right in thinking that still no-one has the foggiest clue as to when they will occur?
Oh, missed it. It’s available on podcast though.
My understanding is that long range prediction is still limited to a slightly better estimate of probability, but short range (weeks or days) is significantly better than it used to be.
Whether it is good enough to actually save lives is another matter.
The Rev Dodgson said:
mollwollfumble said:
The last time I saw any advance in the prediction of earthquakes was in 1999, with the Izmit earthquake.Even before then, everyone had given up.
I’m still waiting for “the big one” in SanFran and LosAng.
Am I right in thinking that still no-one has the foggiest clue as to when they will occur?
Oh, missed it. It’s available on podcast though.
My understanding is that long range prediction is still limited to a slightly better estimate of probability, but short range (weeks or days) is significantly better than it used to be.
Whether it is good enough to actually save lives is another matter.
Now listened:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/the-pilbara—-used-by-ancient-people-and-nasa,-blown-up-by-rio/12463372
The Earthquake bit starts at about 19:20, but the previous ones are worth a listen as well.
Nothing dramatically new, but good to hear what someone actually working in the area has to say.