Forecasters now estimate that 2020’s Atlantic hurricane season could see up to 25 named storms.

Normally, the Atlantic hurricane season sees two named storms by mid-August. This year, we’ve seen 11.

Forecasters have predicted since spring that 2020 would likely be another active hurricane season, as Alex Fox reported for Smithsonian in May. There are 12 named storms in an average hurricane season, but in May, forecasters predicted up to 19 or 20. Now, an updated estimate released by NOAA last week predicts as many as 19 to 25 named storms this season, 7 to 11 of which may develop into hurricanes, Andrew Freedman reports for the Washington Post.

“Weather and climate models are all indicating an even higher likelihood of an extremely active season,” says Gerry Bell, chief hurricane seasonal forecaster at NOAA, to the Post. If there are more than 21 named storms, the rest will be referred to by Greek letters.

Hurricane season lasts until the end of November, and it normally takes at least until October for a “K” storm to take shape. But this season has set new records for the earliest C, E, F, G, H, I and J storms, per the Post’s Samenow. Tropical storms, which get names, have wind speeds of at least 45 miles per hour. A storm is reclassified as a hurricane when its wind speed passes 74 miles per hour.

Several factors are contributing to a busy hurricane season. A recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences provides more evidence that climate change is making hurricanes more severe worldwide. And NOAA’s predictions for this hurricane season are based on notably warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, and a La Niña climate event in the Pacific Ocean that may warm the Atlantic. Temperatures above 80 degrees at the ocean’s surface are a key ingredient to hurricane formation.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-record-11-named-storms-have-formed-atlantic-180975577/