Date: 16/10/2020 02:47:07
From: PermeateFree
ID: 1633876
Subject: The Explosive Hazard Hiding in an African Lake

Lake Kivu is one of Africa’s strangest bodies of water. An unusual set of properties make it an intriguing subject for scientists, as well as a potential source of peril and prosperity for the millions of people living nearby.

Kivu doesn’t behave like most deep lakes. Typically, when water at the surface of a lake is cooled — by winter air temperatures or rivers carrying spring snowmelt, for example — that cold, dense water sinks, and warmer, less dense water rises up from deeper in the lake. This process, known as convection, generally keeps the surfaces of deep lakes warmer than their depths.

But at Lake Kivu, circumstances have conspired to block this mixing, giving the lake unexpected qualities — and surprising consequences.

Straddling the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kivu is one of a string of lakes lining the East African Rift Valley where the African continent is being slowly pulled apart by tectonic forces. The resulting stresses thin the Earth’s crust and trigger volcanic activity, creating hot springs below Kivu that feed hot water, carbon dioxide and methane into the lake’s bottom layers. Microorganisms use some of the carbon dioxide, as well as organic matter sinking from above, to create energy, producing additional methane as a byproduct. Kivu’s great depth — more than 1,500 feet at its deepest point — creates so much pressure that these gases remain dissolved.

This mixture of water and dissolved gases is denser than water alone, which discourages it from rising. The deeper water is also saltier due to sediment raining down from the upper layers of the lake and from minerals in the hot springs, which further increases the density. The result, says limnologist Sergei Katsev of the University of Minnesota Duluth, is a lake with several distinct layers of water of sharply different densities, with only thin transition layers between.

The layers can be separated roughly into two regions: one of less-dense surface water above a depth of about 200 feet and, below that, a region of dense saline water that is itself further stratified, says Alfred Wüest, an aquatic physicist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne. There is mixing within each layer, but they don’t interact with each other. “Just think of the entire water mass sitting there for thousands of years and doing nothing,” says Wüest, author of a 2019 article in the Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics surveying convection in various lakes of the world, including weird outliers like Lake Kivu.

But Lake Kivu is more than just a scientific curiosity. Its unusual stratification and the carbon dioxide and methane trapped in its deeper layers have researchers worried that it could be a disaster waiting to happen.


The unique makeup of Africa’s Lake Kivu prevents the mixing typically seen in other deep lakes, leading to unusual stratification of the waters. There are distinct density differences between each layer. The sharp transition between two of those layers is shown here, with the lower, warmer, saltier water below (red) and the cooler, fresher water on top (blue). The boundary between the two layers is just a few centimeters thick.

About 1,400 miles northwest of Kivu, a crater lake in Cameroon known as Lake Nyos similarly accumulates and traps large amounts of dissolved gas — in this case carbon dioxide — from a volcanic vent at the bottom of the lake. On August 21, 1986, the lethal potential of that gas reservoir was demonstrated in spectacular fashion. Possibly due to a landslide, a large amount of water was suddenly displaced, causing the dissolved carbon dioxide to rapidly mix with upper layers of the lake and release into the air. A large, deadly cloud of the gas asphyxiated about 1,800 people in nearby villages.

Events like this are called limnic eruptions, and scientists fear that Kivu may be ripe for a similar, even deadlier event. Nyos is a relatively small lake, measuring a little more than a mile long, just under a mile wide and less than 700 feet deep. Kivu is 55 miles long, 30 miles across at its widest point and more than twice as deep as Nyos. Because of its size, Katsev says, Kivu “has the potential for a major, catastrophic limnic eruption where many cubic miles of gas would be released.”

Limnic eruptions can occur for two reasons. If the water becomes completely saturated with dissolved gases, any additional carbon dioxide or methane injected into the lake will be forced to bubble out of solution, rise and be released into the air. Eruptions can also be caused when something forces the deep water with its dissolved gases to mix with the layers above, reducing the pressure on the gases and allowing them to quickly come out of solution and escape, similar to the effect of shaking a can of soda and then opening it.

While a landslide of the scale suspected in the Nyos eruption might not cause enough mixing at Kivu, due to the lake’s size and depth, there are several other possible triggers. Kivu is in a seismically active area, so an earthquake could generate waves in the lake that would mix the layers enough to release the trapped gases. Climate is also a potential culprit. At least one past eruption discovered in the sediment record appears to have been caused by drought that evaporated enough water from the top of the lake to reduce the pressure at the lower levels and release the dissolved gases. Lowered water levels during dry periods could also leave Kivu more vulnerable to disruption from particularly heavy rain events. They could flush enough built-up sediment from the dozens of streams feeding into the lake to cause the layers to mix, MacIntyre says.

The chances of such a sequence of events may go up as the planet warms, MacIntyre says. Climate change will bring more rain to East Africa, and “it’s going to come in the form of more extreme rain events with bigger intervals of drought in between.”

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/explosive-hazard-hiding-african-lake-180976024/

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Date: 16/10/2020 05:40:15
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1633878
Subject: re: The Explosive Hazard Hiding in an African Lake

> About 1,400 miles northwest of Kivu, a crater lake in Cameroon known as Lake Nyos similarly accumulates and traps large amounts of dissolved gas — in this case carbon dioxide — from a volcanic vent at the bottom of the lake. On August 21, 1986, the lethal potential of that gas reservoir was demonstrated in spectacular fashion. Possibly due to a landslide, a large amount of water was suddenly displaced, causing the dissolved carbon dioxide to rapidly mix with upper layers of the lake and release into the air. A large, deadly cloud of the gas asphyxiated about 1,800 people in nearby villages.

Yes. There was a TV show about Lake Kivu just a week or two ago.

There is a manmade fountain in the middle of the Lake Kivu, with carbon dioxide bubbling out all on its own, no pump is required. Just like the fizz from a bottle of soft drink. The carbon dioxide disperses safely in the air on the surface of the lake. It is safe to approach right up to the edge of the fountain in a small boat. This is considered a pilot program, it’s too small to remove the hazard. The pilot fountain looks to be working. I strongly suggest that they go to full scale ASAP.

Lake Kivu is on the Great East Africa Rift Valley, where two tectonic plates are drawing apart. The danger from Lake Kivu cannot be overestimated. There are several places around the world that are disasters waiting to happen. Lake Kivu is one of them.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Kivu

“Lake Kivu has recently been found to contain approximately 55 billion cubic metres of dissolved biogas at a depth of 300 metres. Until 2004, extraction of the gas was done on a small scale, with the extracted gas being used to run boilers at the Bralirwa brewery in Gisenyi. As far as large-scale exploitation of this resource is concerned, the Rwandan government has negotiated with a number of parties to produce methane from the lake.”

“In 2011 ContourGlobal, a UK-based energy company focused on emerging markets, secured project financing to initiate a large-scale methane extraction project. The project is run through a local Rwandan entity called KivuWatt, using an offshore barge platform to extract, separate, and clean the gasses obtained from the lake bed before pumping purified methane via an underwater pipeline to on-shore gas engines. Stage one of the project, powering three “gensets” along the lake shore and supplying 26 MW of electricity to the local grid, has since been completed. The next phase aims to deploy nine additional “gensets” at 75 MW to create a total capacity of 101 MW.”

“In addition, Symbion Power Lake Kivu Limited was awarded a Concession and Power Producing Agreement (PPA) in 2015, to produce 50 MW of power using the Lake Kivu methane resource. The project is expected to commence construction in 2019, with first power (Phase 1 – 14 MW) to be produced in first quarter 2020. The plant will be fully operational in 2021.”

“Symbion Power has purchased another concession for a further 25 MW and are currently negotiating a PPA with the Rwanda Electricity Group which may see 8 MW of power despatched to the Grid six months after the PPA has been signed. This concession is on the site of the original pilot plant known as KP1.”

“In addition to managing gas extraction, KivuWatt will also manage the electrical generation plants and on-sell the electrical power to the Rwandan government under the terms of a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). This allows KivuWatt to control a vertically integrated energy offering from point of extraction to point of sale into the local grid. Extraction is said to be cost-effective and relatively simple because once the gas-rich water is pumped up, the dissolved gases (primarily carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide and methane) begin to bubble out as the water pressure gets lower. This project is expected to increase Rwanda’s energy generation capability by as much as 20 times, and will enable Rwanda to sell electricity to neighbouring African countries. The firm was awarded the 2011 Africa Power deal of the year for innovation in the financing arrangements it obtained from various sources for the KivuWatt project. The $200 million power plant was operating at 26 MW in 2016.”

All this makes me nervous. It’s like generating power from a live volcano. Perhaps even more dangerous.

There are five towns on the edge of Lake Kivu (One in the Congo and four in Rwanda). All at enormous risk. And i don’t know the topography well enough to know which other towns are at risk. Even Kigali, the capital of Rwanda with a population of 860,000 people, is not too far away.

(Checks web for topography)

From this topographic map, the breakout is most likely to occur south. The next town south is Bujumbura, the largest city and main port of Burundi, with a population of 1.1 million. That’s at much higher risk than Kigali. Bujumbura is on the nothernmost shore of Lake Tanganyika. Yes, definitely high risk, I wouldn’t want to live there.

The other likely break-out direction, to the north, is less densely populated but does contain the town of Rutshuru in the Congo, another very high risk location.

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Date: 16/10/2020 13:45:51
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1634094
Subject: re: The Explosive Hazard Hiding in an African Lake

I forgot to mention that this lake Kivu is right next to the active volcano, Mount Nyiragongo

Not only is Mount Nyiragongo active, it’s in the news right now. It’s a threat in is own right, in addition to the threat it poses through Lake Kiva.

I underestimated how many towns are right on the shore of this explosive lake Kiva.

At least 15 towns in Rwanda, including the town Chugi in the very middle of the lake!

At least 18 towns in Congo. The two biggest seem to be Bukavu and Goma, both in Congo.

I would not like to live in any of those 33 towns right now.

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