Am I a climate scientist?
mollwollfumble said:
Am I a climate scientist?
Shame moll, you almost made it.
Humans need to continue the path of knowledge and understanding together so that current and future technologies are part of a better balanced future as a whole rather than pure short sighted convenience without considering or understanding what the true roll on affects are.
It is interesting because people are almost scrambling to find that way back to climate , flora , fauna and developing nations in harmony again.
SCIENCE apparently isn’t the done thing in the current climate
the citizen scientist, now there’s potentially an interesting subject, social status of, real or imagined and efforts at converging the two, ego mechanisms involved
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2020/the-power-of-three-rainfall-ice-cores-and-climate-models-in-australian-water-management/
THE POWER OF THREE – RAINFALL, ICE CORES AND CLIMATE MODELS – IN AUSTRALIAN WATER MANAGEMENT
Home News and media 2020 The power of three – rainfall, ice cores and climate models – in Australian water management
24 AUGUST 2020
New research involving Antarctic ice cores shows that instrumental rainfall records in eastern Australia, spanning the past 115 years, do not encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future.
Ice cores contain chemicals and bubbles of air from the atmosphere, trapped at the time the snow fell, providing scientists with information about past climate. Photo: Tas van Ommen
As a result, the study recommends that water and other natural resource managers use three forms of rainfall information to develop water management plans – instrumental (rain gauges), palaeoclimate (ice cores) and climate models.
The research, led by Matthew Armstrong and Dr Anthony Kiem from the University of Newcastle, and involving Dr Tessa Vance from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, compared past rainfall records from rain gauges and ice cores, and future rainfall projections from global climate models.
The study focused on the Lockyer catchment in south-east Queensland, which shares an atmospheric link with Antarctica that influences its rainfall.
“The ice cores, from Law Dome in East Antarctica, contain a history of natural climate variability over the past 1000 years, which can be used to infer east Australian rainfall over that time,” Dr Vance said.
“This allows us to better understand the natural variability in rainfall in the region, including prolonged droughts, before instrumental records began.”
Climate models, in contrast, allow the effect of human-made climate change to be factored into future rainfall projections.
The comparison showed that instrumental records do not encompass the full range of hydroclimatic conditions that could be possible from now until 2100, with significantly drier periods observed in the palaeoclimate record and projected by the ‘worst case scenario’ in climate models.
“This means that water management strategies developed using only instrumental data underestimate current and future hydroclimatic risk,” Mr Armstrong said.
“Our study recommends that water managers evaluate the performance of existing water supply systems using a combination of instrumental, palaeoclimate and projected model data.”
The research was published in the Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies in August 2020.
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2020/the-power-of-three-rainfall-ice-cores-and-climate-models-in-australian-water-management/
THE POWER OF THREE – RAINFALL, ICE CORES AND CLIMATE MODELS – IN AUSTRALIAN WATER MANAGEMENT
Home News and media 2020 The power of three – rainfall, ice cores and climate models – in Australian water management
24 AUGUST 2020
New research involving Antarctic ice cores shows that instrumental rainfall records in eastern Australia, spanning the past 115 years, do not encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future.
Ice cores contain chemicals and bubbles of air from the atmosphere, trapped at the time the snow fell, providing scientists with information about past climate. Photo: Tas van Ommen
As a result, the study recommends that water and other natural resource managers use three forms of rainfall information to develop water management plans – instrumental (rain gauges), palaeoclimate (ice cores) and climate models.
The research, led by Matthew Armstrong and Dr Anthony Kiem from the University of Newcastle, and involving Dr Tessa Vance from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, compared past rainfall records from rain gauges and ice cores, and future rainfall projections from global climate models.
The study focused on the Lockyer catchment in south-east Queensland, which shares an atmospheric link with Antarctica that influences its rainfall.
“The ice cores, from Law Dome in East Antarctica, contain a history of natural climate variability over the past 1000 years, which can be used to infer east Australian rainfall over that time,” Dr Vance said.
“This allows us to better understand the natural variability in rainfall in the region, including prolonged droughts, before instrumental records began.”
Climate models, in contrast, allow the effect of human-made climate change to be factored into future rainfall projections.
The comparison showed that instrumental records do not encompass the full range of hydroclimatic conditions that could be possible from now until 2100, with significantly drier periods observed in the palaeoclimate record and projected by the ‘worst case scenario’ in climate models.
“This means that water management strategies developed using only instrumental data underestimate current and future hydroclimatic risk,” Mr Armstrong said.
“Our study recommends that water managers evaluate the performance of existing water supply systems using a combination of instrumental, palaeoclimate and projected model data.”
The research was published in the Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies in August 2020.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200622132937.htm
Ice core research in Antarctica sheds new light on role of sea ice in carbon balance
Date:
June 22, 2020
Source:
University of Bonn
Summary:
New research findings underline the crucial role that sea ice throughout the Southern Ocean played for atmospheric CO2 in times of rapid climate change in the past. An international team has shown that the seasonal growth and destruction of sea ice in a warming world increases the biological productivity of the seas around Antarctica by extracting carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in the deep ocean.
FULL STORY
New research findings underline the crucial role that sea ice throughout the Southern Ocean played for atmospheric CO2 in times of rapid climate change in the past. An international team of scientists with the participation of the University of Bonn has shown that the seasonal growth and destruction of sea ice in a warming world increases the biological productivity of the seas around Antarctica by extracting carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in the deep ocean. This process helps to explain a long-standing question about an apparent 1,900-year pause in CO2 growth during a period known as the Antarctic cold reversal. The research results have now been published in “Nature Geoscience.”
Surrounding the remote continent of Antarctica, the Southern Ocean is one of the most important yet poorly understood components of the global carbon cycle. Having captured half of all human-related carbon that has entered the ocean to date, the Southern Ocean is crucial to regulating human-induced CO2. Therefore, understanding the processes that determine its effectiveness as a carbon sink through time are essential to reducing uncertainty in climate projections.
After the Last Ice Age, around 18,000 years ago, the world transitioned naturally into the warm interglacial world we live in today. During this period, CO2 rose rapidly from around 190 ppm to 280 ppm over around 7,000 years. This rise was not steady, and was interrupted by rapid rises and intermittent plateaus, reflecting different processes within the global carbon cycle.
Antarctic Cold Reversal
One period stands out: a 1,900-year plateau of near-constant CO2 levels at 240 ppm starting some 14,600 years ago called the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The cause of this plateau remains unknown, but understanding the processes may be critical for improving projections surrounding climate-carbon feedbacks.
“We found that in sediment cores located in the sea-ice zone of the Southern Ocean biological productivity increased during this critical period, whereas it decreased farther north, outside of the sea-ice zone,” says Michael Weber, co-author of the study from the Institute for Geosciences at the University of Bonn. “It was now important to find out how climate records on the Antarctic continent depict this critical time period.”
To resolve this question researchers from Keele University, U.K., and the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Sydney, Australia, travelled to the Patriot Hills Blue Ice Area to obtain new records of marine biomarkers captured in ice cores. Chris Fogwill, lead author of the study from Keele University, says “the cause of this long plateau in global atmospheric CO2 levels may be fundamental to understanding the potential of the Southern Ocean to moderate atmospheric CO2. Whilst recent reductions in emissions due to the Covid-19 pandemic have shown that we can reduce CO2, we need to understand the ways in which CO2 levels have been stabilised by natural processes, as they may be key to the responsible development of geoengineering approaches and remain fundamental to achieving our commitment to the Paris Agreement.”
Horizontal ice core analysis
Blue ice areas are created by fierce, high-density katabatic winds that erode the top layer of snow effectively and expose the ice below. As a result, ice flows up to the surface, providing access to ancient ice below. While most Antarctic researchers drill down into the ice to extract samples with a conventional ice core, this team used a different method: horizontal ice core analysis. Chris Turney (UNSW, Sydney) says “Instead of drilling kilometres into the ice, we can simply walk across a blue ice area to travel back through time. This provides the opportunity to sample large volumes of ice necessary for studying new organic biomarkers and DNA that were blown from the Southern Ocean onto Antarctica and preserved in the blue ice.”
The results demonstrated a marked increase in the number and diversity of marine organisms across the 1,900 year period of the CO2 plateau, an observation never seen before. The team also conducted climate modelling revealing that this period coincided with the greatest seasonal changes in sea ice extent from summer to winter. Together with the marine cores, these findings provide the first evidence of increased biological productivity record and suggest that processes in the Antarctic Zone of Southern Ocean may have caused the CO2 plateau.
The team will use this work to underpin the development of climate models that seek to improve our understanding of future climate change. The inclusion of sea ice processes that control climate-carbon feedbacks in a new generation of models will be crucial for reducing uncertainties surrounding climate projections and help society adapt to future warming.
Story Source:
Materials provided by University of Bonn. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Journal Reference:
C. J. Fogwill, C. S. M. Turney, L. Menviel, A. Baker, M. E. Weber, B. Ellis, Z. A. Thomas, N. R. Golledge, D. Etheridge, M. Rubino, D. P. Thornton, T. D. van Ommen, A. D. Moy, M. A. J. Curran, S. Davies, M. I. Bird, N. C. Munksgaard, C. M. Rootes, H. Millman, J. Vohra, A. Rivera, A. Mackintosh, J. Pike, I. R. Hall, E. A. Bagshaw, E. Rainsley, C. Bronk-Ramsey, M. Montenari, A. G. Cage, M. R. P. Harris, R. Jones, A. Power, J. Love, J. Young, L. S. Weyrich, A. Cooper. Southern Ocean carbon sink enhanced by sea-ice feedbacks at the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Nature Geoscience, 2020; DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-0587-0
monkey skipper said:
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2020/the-power-of-three-rainfall-ice-cores-and-climate-models-in-australian-water-management/New research involving Antarctic ice cores shows that instrumental rainfall records in eastern Australia, spanning the past 115 years, do not encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future.
Not criticising this research, but why would anyone think that 115 years of past records might “encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future”?
The Rev Dodgson said:
monkey skipper said:
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2020/the-power-of-three-rainfall-ice-cores-and-climate-models-in-australian-water-management/New research involving Antarctic ice cores shows that instrumental rainfall records in eastern Australia, spanning the past 115 years, do not encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future.
Not criticising this research, but why would anyone think that 115 years of past records might “encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future”?
they wouldn’t but as the article says they use three points of measurment and instrument measurement has a narrow limit and how to overcome that is that they found one parrallell to use for modelling. I think the article is talking about how to get around the 3 tool rule with a chance of getting a reasonable model in place for predictions what’s likely coming our way in Australia.
I think this is important since we have to solve our water management issues to future proof the nation.
i.e The parrallel between SEQ & Antartica.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Cold_Reversal
The Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) was an important episode of cooling in the climate history of the Earth during the deglaciation at the close of the last ice age. It illustrates the complexity of the climate changes at the transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene Epochs.
The Last Glacial Maximum and sea-level minimum occurred c. 21,000 years before present (BP). Antarctic ice cores show gradual warming beginning 3000 years later. At about 14,700 BP, there was a large pulse of meltwater, identified as Meltwater pulse 1A, probably from either the Antarctic ice sheet or the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Meltwater pulse 1A produced a marine transgression that raised global sea level about 20 meters in two to five centuries and is thought to have influenced the start of the Bølling/Allerød interstadial, the major break with glacial cold in the Northern Hemisphere. Meltwater pulse 1A was followed in Antarctica and the Southern Hemisphere by a renewed cooling, the Antarctic Cold Reversal, in c. 14,500 BP, which lasted for two millennia — an instance of warming causing cooling. The ACR brought an average cooling of perhaps 3 °C. The Younger Dryas cooling, in the Northern Hemisphere, began while the Antarctic Cold Reversal was still ongoing, and the ACR ended in the midst of the Younger Dryas.
This pattern of climate decoupling between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and of “southern lead, northern lag” would manifest in subsequent climate events. The cause or causes of this hemispheric decoupling, of the “lead/lag” pattern and of the specific mechanisms of the warming and cooling trends are still subjects of study and dispute among climate researchers. The specific dating and intensity of the Antarctic Cold Reversal are also under debate.
The onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal was followed, after about 800 years, by an Oceanic Cold Reversal in the Southern Ocean.
monkey skipper said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
monkey skipper said:
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2020/the-power-of-three-rainfall-ice-cores-and-climate-models-in-australian-water-management/New research involving Antarctic ice cores shows that instrumental rainfall records in eastern Australia, spanning the past 115 years, do not encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future.
Not criticising this research, but why would anyone think that 115 years of past records might “encompass the full range of drought events that could be possible now and in the future”?
they wouldn’t but as the article says they use three points of measurment and instrument measurement has a narrow limit and how to overcome that is that they found one parrallell to use for modelling. I think the article is talking about how to get around the 3 tool rule with a chance of getting a reasonable model in place for predictions what’s likely coming our way in Australia.
I think this is important since we have to solve our water management issues to future proof the nation.
Totally agree.
Treating past records like they are a full and accurate predictor of the future is a huge problem in all branches of engineering.
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decades
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
SCIENCE said:
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decadeshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
I think they have gas as a back up
Tau.Neutrino said:
SCIENCE said:
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decadeshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
I think they have gas as a back up
wind power then
SCIENCE said:
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decadeshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
I think article is wrong. Scotland already achieved this.
in seriousness though get a baseload of this
? remember the Baseload Bullshitting ¿
now we have
? remember how Coal Was Best Because It Stays On Overnight When People Still Need Lots Of Power And Hence Prices Are Low And The Market Is Working Efficiently Wait How Does That Compute ¿
now we have peak overload during the day and people will look back at coal and wonder, how did that stupid baseload system even work without an ability to switch off the excess power overnight
dv said:
SCIENCE said:
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decadeshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
I think article is wrong. Scotland already achieved this.
sorry
(we haven’t checked but) do they refer to exclusive-solar and not total-renewable
heading off for lunch staple vegetable meat
SCIENCE said:
in seriousness though get a baseload of this? remember the Baseload Bullshitting ¿
now we have
Switch-off power needed
SA Power Networks says any switch-off would only happen as a last resort and if grid stability was at risk. The next step is convincing more people to connect batteries to store cheap energy during the day. “The grid needs to become increasingly like a set of lungs,” AEMO chief external affairs officer Tony Chappel said. “During the day, the lungs would breathe in and excess energy can be stored and then in the evening when the sun’s gone down, that energy can be fed back.”? remember how Coal Was Best Because It Stays On Overnight When People Still Need Lots Of Power And Hence Prices Are Low And The Market Is Working Efficiently Wait How Does That Compute ¿
now we have peak overload during the day and people will look back at coal and wonder, how did that stupid baseload system even work without an ability to switch off the excess power overnight
Imagine all that excess power if it was saved.
I wonder how much energy the excess power totalled up to over the years?
Be a few decades of coal.
SCIENCE said:
dv said:
SCIENCE said:
Three Days Ago They Said It Would Take Decadeshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/all-sa-power-from-solar-for-first-time/12810366
Tomorrow It Will Be Back To Coal
I think article is wrong. Scotland already achieved this.
sorry
(we haven’t checked but) do they refer to exclusive-solar and not total-renewable
heading off for lunch staple vegetable meat
All from solar is what it says.
For one hour.
Doesn’t say what they did with the wind turbines for that hour.
The Rev Dodgson said:
SCIENCE said:
dv said:I think article is wrong. Scotland already achieved this.
sorry
(we haven’t checked but) do they refer to exclusive-solar and not total-renewable
heading off for lunch staple vegetable meat
All from solar is what it says.
For one hour.
Doesn’t say what they did with the wind turbines for that hour.
Probably had to run them backwards to bleed off the excess solar.
sibeen said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
SCIENCE said:sorry
(we haven’t checked but) do they refer to exclusive-solar and not total-renewable
heading off for lunch staple vegetable meat
All from solar is what it says.
For one hour.
Doesn’t say what they did with the wind turbines for that hour.
Probably had to run them backwards to bleed off the excess solar.
Would have had to do that if it hadn’t been for ELON’S BATTERY FARM.
SCIENCE said:
in seriousness though get a baseload of this? remember the Baseload Bullshitting ¿
now we have
Switch-off power needed
SA Power Networks says any switch-off would only happen as a last resort and if grid stability was at risk. The next step is convincing more people to connect batteries to store cheap energy during the day. “The grid needs to become increasingly like a set of lungs,” AEMO chief external affairs officer Tony Chappel said. “During the day, the lungs would breathe in and excess energy can be stored and then in the evening when the sun’s gone down, that energy can be fed back.”? remember how Coal Was Best Because It Stays On Overnight When People Still Need Lots Of Power And Hence Prices Are Low And The Market Is Working Efficiently Wait How Does That Compute ¿
now we have peak overload during the day and people will look back at coal and wonder, how did that stupid baseload system even work without an ability to switch off the excess power overnight
The baseload power model is not stupid. It is a very sensible and well thought out engineering solution to a particular problem using the available technology of the day.
The Rev Dodgson said:
sibeen said:
The Rev Dodgson said:All from solar is what it says.
For one hour.
Doesn’t say what they did with the wind turbines for that hour.
Probably had to run them backwards to bleed off the excess solar.
Would have had to do that if it hadn’t been for ELON’S BATTERY FARM.
Maybe we should develop our own battery farms.
With better specifications.
party_pants said:
SCIENCE said:
in seriousness though get a baseload of this? remember the Baseload Bullshitting ¿
now we have
Switch-off power needed
SA Power Networks says any switch-off would only happen as a last resort and if grid stability was at risk. The next step is convincing more people to connect batteries to store cheap energy during the day. “The grid needs to become increasingly like a set of lungs,” AEMO chief external affairs officer Tony Chappel said. “During the day, the lungs would breathe in and excess energy can be stored and then in the evening when the sun’s gone down, that energy can be fed back.”? remember how Coal Was Best Because It Stays On Overnight When People Still Need Lots Of Power And Hence Prices Are Low And The Market Is Working Efficiently Wait How Does That Compute ¿
now we have peak overload during the day and people will look back at coal and wonder, how did that stupid baseload system even work without an ability to switch off the excess power overnight
The baseload power model is not stupid. It is a very sensible and well thought out engineering solution to a particular problem using the available technology of the day.
Why couldn’t they turn down the coal burners a bit over night
Tau.Neutrino said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
sibeen said:Probably had to run them backwards to bleed off the excess solar.
Would have had to do that if it hadn’t been for ELON’S BATTERY FARM.
Maybe we should develop our own battery farms.
With better specifications.
Or use the Snowy Mountain Scheme for pumped storage.
I wonder why nobody thought of that.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
The Rev Dodgson said:Would have had to do that if it hadn’t been for ELON’S BATTERY FARM.
Maybe we should develop our own battery farms.
With better specifications.
Or use the Snowy Mountain Scheme for pumped storage.
I wonder why nobody thought of that.
Doesn’t that involve taking water out of the MDB system?
party_pants said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Maybe we should develop our own battery farms.
With better specifications.
Or use the Snowy Mountain Scheme for pumped storage.
I wonder why nobody thought of that.
Doesn’t that involve taking water out of the MDB system?
Then you pump it back in again, further up the hill.
