Date: 29/10/2020 09:42:24
From: buffy
ID: 1640116
Subject: Vaccine problems

I read an article in the October Scientific American last night called: What we learned from AIDS.

The Author is William A. Haseltine: is a former Harvard Medical School professor and founder of the university’s cancer and HIV/AIDS research departments. He also serves as chair and president of the global health think tank ACCESS Health International. He has founded more than a dozen biotechnology companies and is the author, most recently, of A COVID Back to School Guide: Questions and Answers for Parents and Students and A Family Guide to COVID-19: Questions and Answers for Parents, Grandparents and Children

This link is to the article. I think you get a couple of free articles a month at SciAm, so you might be able to read the whole thing:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lessons-from-aids-for-the-covid-19-pandemic/

If you can’t, here is the bit I found most interesting:

“Vaccine Challenges

Early observations of how HIV behaves in our bodies showed the road to a vaccine would be long and challenging. As the outbreak unfolded, we began tracking antibody levels and T cells (the white blood cells that wage war against invaders) in those infected. The high levels of both showed that patients were mounting incredibly active immune responses, more forceful than anything we had seen for any other disease. But even working at its highest capacity, the body’s immune system was never strong enough to clear out the virus completely.

Unlike the hit-and-run polio virus, which evokes long-term immunity after an infection, HIV is a “catch it and keep it” virus—if you are infected, the pathogen stays in your body until it destroys the immune system, leaving you undefended against even mild infections. Moreover, HIV continually evolves—a shrewd opponent seeking ways to elude our immune responses. Although this does not mean a vaccine is impossible, it certainly meant developing one, especially when the virus hit in the 1980s, would not be easy. “Unfortunately, no one can predict with certainty that an AIDS vaccine can ever be made,” I testified in 1988 to the Presidential Commission on the HIV Epidemic. “That is not to say it is impossible to make such a vaccine, only that we are not certain of success.” More than 30 years later there still is no effective vaccine to prevent HIV infection.

From what we have seen of SARS-CoV-2, it interacts with our immune system in complex ways, resembling polio in some of its behavior and HIV in others. We know from nearly 60 years of observing coronaviruses that a body’s immune system can clear them. That seems to be generally the case for SARS-CoV-2 as well. But the cold-causing coronaviruses, just like HIV, also have their tricks. Infection from one of them never seems to confer immunity to reinfection or symptoms by the same strain of virus—that is why the same cold viruses return each season. These coronaviruses are not a hit-and-run virus like polio or a catch-it-and-keep-it virus like HIV. I call them “get it and forget it” viruses—once cleared, your body tends to forget it ever fought this foe. Early studies with SARS-CoV-2 suggest it might behave much like its cousins, raising transient immune protection.

The path to a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine may be filled with obstacles. Whereas some people with COVID-19 make neutralizing antibodies that can clear the virus, not everybody does. Whether a vaccine will stimulate such antibodies in everyone is still unknown. Moreover, we do not know how long those antibodies can protect someone from infection. It may be two or three years before we will have the data to tell us and any confidence in the outcome.

Another challenge is how this virus enters the body: through the nasal mucosal membranes. No COVID-19 vaccine currently in development has shown an ability to prevent infection through the nose. In nonhuman primates, some vaccines can prevent the disease from spreading efficiently to the lungs. But those studies do not tell us much about how the same drug will work in humans; the disease in our species is very different from what it is in monkeys, which do not become noticeably ill.

We learned with HIV that attempts to prevent virus entry altogether do not work well—not for HIV and not for many other viruses, including influenza and even polio. Vaccines act more like fire alarms: rather than preventing fires from breaking out, they call the immune system for help once a fire has ignited.

The hopes of the world rest on a COVID-19 vaccine. It seems likely that scientists will announce a “success” sometime this year, but success is not as simple as it sounds. As I write, officials in Russia have reported approving a COVID-19 vaccine. Will it work? Will it be safe? Will it be long lasting? No one will be able to provide convincing answers to these questions for any forthcoming vaccine soon, perhaps not for at least several years”

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 09:43:22
From: buffy
ID: 1640118
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Sorry, long opening post. From that though, I’m not sure a vaccine is likely, or possibly even useful if it is only going to be effective for a very short time period.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 10:09:20
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1640124
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

buffy said:


I read an article in the October Scientific American last night called: What we learned from AIDS.

The Author is William A. Haseltine: is a former Harvard Medical School professor and founder of the university’s cancer and HIV/AIDS research departments. He also serves as chair and president of the global health think tank ACCESS Health International. He has founded more than a dozen biotechnology companies and is the author, most recently, of A COVID Back to School Guide: Questions and Answers for Parents and Students and A Family Guide to COVID-19: Questions and Answers for Parents, Grandparents and Children

This link is to the article. I think you get a couple of free articles a month at SciAm, so you might be able to read the whole thing:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lessons-from-aids-for-the-covid-19-pandemic/

If you can’t, here is the bit I found most interesting:

“Vaccine Challenges

Early observations of how HIV behaves in our bodies showed the road to a vaccine would be long and challenging. As the outbreak unfolded, we began tracking antibody levels and T cells (the white blood cells that wage war against invaders) in those infected. The high levels of both showed that patients were mounting incredibly active immune responses, more forceful than anything we had seen for any other disease. But even working at its highest capacity, the body’s immune system was never strong enough to clear out the virus completely.

Unlike the hit-and-run polio virus, which evokes long-term immunity after an infection, HIV is a “catch it and keep it” virus—if you are infected, the pathogen stays in your body until it destroys the immune system, leaving you undefended against even mild infections. Moreover, HIV continually evolves—a shrewd opponent seeking ways to elude our immune responses. Although this does not mean a vaccine is impossible, it certainly meant developing one, especially when the virus hit in the 1980s, would not be easy. “Unfortunately, no one can predict with certainty that an AIDS vaccine can ever be made,” I testified in 1988 to the Presidential Commission on the HIV Epidemic. “That is not to say it is impossible to make such a vaccine, only that we are not certain of success.” More than 30 years later there still is no effective vaccine to prevent HIV infection.

From what we have seen of SARS-CoV-2, it interacts with our immune system in complex ways, resembling polio in some of its behavior and HIV in others. We know from nearly 60 years of observing coronaviruses that a body’s immune system can clear them. That seems to be generally the case for SARS-CoV-2 as well. But the cold-causing coronaviruses, just like HIV, also have their tricks. Infection from one of them never seems to confer immunity to reinfection or symptoms by the same strain of virus—that is why the same cold viruses return each season. These coronaviruses are not a hit-and-run virus like polio or a catch-it-and-keep-it virus like HIV. I call them “get it and forget it” viruses—once cleared, your body tends to forget it ever fought this foe. Early studies with SARS-CoV-2 suggest it might behave much like its cousins, raising transient immune protection.

The path to a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine may be filled with obstacles. Whereas some people with COVID-19 make neutralizing antibodies that can clear the virus, not everybody does. Whether a vaccine will stimulate such antibodies in everyone is still unknown. Moreover, we do not know how long those antibodies can protect someone from infection. It may be two or three years before we will have the data to tell us and any confidence in the outcome.

Another challenge is how this virus enters the body: through the nasal mucosal membranes. No COVID-19 vaccine currently in development has shown an ability to prevent infection through the nose. In nonhuman primates, some vaccines can prevent the disease from spreading efficiently to the lungs. But those studies do not tell us much about how the same drug will work in humans; the disease in our species is very different from what it is in monkeys, which do not become noticeably ill.

We learned with HIV that attempts to prevent virus entry altogether do not work well—not for HIV and not for many other viruses, including influenza and even polio. Vaccines act more like fire alarms: rather than preventing fires from breaking out, they call the immune system for help once a fire has ignited.

The hopes of the world rest on a COVID-19 vaccine. It seems likely that scientists will announce a “success” sometime this year, but success is not as simple as it sounds. As I write, officials in Russia have reported approving a COVID-19 vaccine. Will it work? Will it be safe? Will it be long lasting? No one will be able to provide convincing answers to these questions for any forthcoming vaccine soon, perhaps not for at least several years”

The results seem to be in on the last paragraph, looks like it aint doing much.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 10:10:05
From: esselte
ID: 1640125
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

buffy said:


Sorry, long opening post. From that though, I’m not sure a vaccine is likely, or possibly even useful if it is only going to be effective for a very short time period.

I haven’t liked the messaging behind developing vaccines to address this pandemic at all. “Just hang on, we will get a vaccine ASAP, in October, in November, early next year at the latest.. then everything will be a-ok”. I would much prefer “We are working on vaccines but these things take time and we can not rely on having a good vaccine any time soon. Therefor we must work to adapt to our changed, SARS-CoV-2 infested, global environment through mitigation and control. Prevention is always better than a cure”.

And, despite being pro-vaccine in general, I am one of those people who will in no way, shape or form be presenting myself to be one of the early adopters of whatever vaccine is developed. I do not trust the politicians involved in making decisions about the safety of such a rushed vaccine. I do not trust the scientists involved in the vaccine research either. No trust – no injecting shit into my veins.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 10:13:27
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1640127
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

esselte said:


buffy said:

Sorry, long opening post. From that though, I’m not sure a vaccine is likely, or possibly even useful if it is only going to be effective for a very short time period.

I haven’t liked the messaging behind developing vaccines to address this pandemic at all. “Just hang on, we will get a vaccine ASAP, in October, in November, early next year at the latest.. then everything will be a-ok”. I would much prefer “We are working on vaccines but these things take time and we can not rely on having a good vaccine any time soon. Therefor we must work to adapt to our changed, SARS-CoV-2 infested, global environment through mitigation and control. Prevention is always better than a cure”.

And, despite being pro-vaccine in general, I am one of those people who will in no way, shape or form be presenting myself to be one of the early adopters of whatever vaccine is developed. I do not trust the politicians involved in making decisions about the safety of such a rushed vaccine. I do not trust the scientists involved in the vaccine research either. No trust – no injecting shit into my veins.

well apart from shots usually being into muscles, we’re inclined to mostly agree

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 10:59:01
From: Divine Angel
ID: 1640132
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 10:59:48
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1640133
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Divine Angel said:


I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

did it work though

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:00:53
From: Divine Angel
ID: 1640134
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

SCIENCE said:


Divine Angel said:

I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

did it work though

Well I haven’t caught it yet.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:01:07
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1640135
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Divine Angel said:


I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

This the Qld one?

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:06:43
From: Divine Angel
ID: 1640138
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Peak Warming Man said:


Divine Angel said:

I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

This the Qld one?

Trial by USC. From memory, I think the BIG PHARMA company is AlphaVax. But don’t quote me on that.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:22:38
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1640140
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Divine Angel said:


SCIENCE said:

Divine Angel said:

I’ve had zero problems with either COVID vaccine (or placebo) that I’m getting as part of the trial.

did it work though

Well I haven’t caught it yet.

I have this rock…

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:24:21
From: Divine Angel
ID: 1640141
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Witty Rejoinder said:


Divine Angel said:

SCIENCE said:

did it work though

Well I haven’t caught it yet.

I have this rock…

Ooh does it keep tigers away?

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:26:47
From: ChrispenEvan
ID: 1640142
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Divine Angel said:


Witty Rejoinder said:

Divine Angel said:

Well I haven’t caught it yet.

I have this rock…

Ooh does it keep tigers away?

if you throw it at them it could discourage them. or piss them off so they attack.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:28:48
From: buffy
ID: 1640143
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Divine Angel said:


Witty Rejoinder said:

Divine Angel said:

Well I haven’t caught it yet.

I have this rock…

Ooh does it keep tigers away?

My mothers series of Pugs over the years kept the planes out of the backyard. They were always flying over and they never landed there. Mum said Pugs were good at keeping planes out of the backyard. (Box Hill North is sort of near a Tulla flight path)

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:35:32
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1640145
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

So it seems Victorians cannot be trusted with K-Mart…

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/fears-of-a-third-wave-after-wild-kmart-scenes-in-melbourne-c-1472305

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:36:18
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1640146
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Ooops sorry.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 11:38:25
From: sibeen
ID: 1640148
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Witty Rejoinder said:


So it seems Victorians cannot be trusted with K-Mart…

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/fears-of-a-third-wave-after-wild-kmart-scenes-in-melbourne-c-1472305

Senior sprog works at k-mart and had a shift there yesterday, working until midnight. She said it was pretty crazy and the store took about 4x the amount of money that they did for the same day last year.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 16:35:19
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1640414
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Simple enough.

I’ve been saying this already.

The longer you put off releasing a vaccine, the more virus mutations you’re going to get. We’re now up to in excess of 3,000 different strains of Covid.

Hit it fast, hit it hard, hit it permanently, hit it five months ago.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 16:49:27
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1640418
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

mollwollfumble said:


Simple enough.

I’ve been saying this already.

The longer you put off releasing a vaccine, the more virus mutations you’re going to get. We’re now up to in excess of 3,000 different strains of Covid.

Hit it fast, hit it hard, hit it permanently, hit it five months ago.

with good infection control measures, not untested vaccines

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:13:40
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1640511
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

It didn’t take a genius to see that this would happen.
A significant fraction (some say 30%) of common colds are from versions of coronavirus, and there’s still no vaccine against the common cold.

You can’t apply “guilty until innocent” to a life-saving drug.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:16:51
From: poikilotherm
ID: 1640515
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:20:30
From: ChrispenEvan
ID: 1640517
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

poikilotherm said:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

But, but, we had one 5 months ago!!!

From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1640414
Subject: re: Vaccine problems
Simple enough.

I’ve been saying this already.

The longer you put off releasing a vaccine, the more virus mutations you’re going to get. We’re now up to in excess of 3,000 different strains of Covid.

Hit it fast, hit it hard, hit it permanently, hit it five months ago.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:24:51
From: buffy
ID: 1640521
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

poikilotherm said:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I reckon the efficacy step is a big hurdle. Even if something produces a response in the human body, is it likely to last long enough to get a population wide use organized? A short term response of a couple of months isn’t really going to cut the mustard.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:27:32
From: poikilotherm
ID: 1640525
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

ChrispenEvan said:


poikilotherm said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

But, but, we had one 5 months ago!!!

From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1640414
Subject: re: Vaccine problems
Simple enough.

I’ve been saying this already.

The longer you put off releasing a vaccine, the more virus mutations you’re going to get. We’re now up to in excess of 3,000 different strains of Covid.

Hit it fast, hit it hard, hit it permanently, hit it five months ago.

The UAE has had one since September, so that’s something I guess. Developed by…The Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:27:44
From: party_pants
ID: 1640526
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

buffy said:


poikilotherm said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I reckon the efficacy step is a big hurdle. Even if something produces a response in the human body, is it likely to last long enough to get a population wide use organized? A short term response of a couple of months isn’t really going to cut the mustard.

I read somewhere the other day some trial patients in Brazil died of Covid. So I guess not every vaccine in development is going along smoothly.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:29:27
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1640527
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

party_pants said:


buffy said:

poikilotherm said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I reckon the efficacy step is a big hurdle. Even if something produces a response in the human body, is it likely to last long enough to get a population wide use organized? A short term response of a couple of months isn’t really going to cut the mustard.

I read somewhere the other day some trial patients in Brazil died of Covid. So I guess not every vaccine in development is going along smoothly.

Not surprising given that 50% get a placebo.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:29:56
From: poikilotherm
ID: 1640528
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

party_pants said:


buffy said:

poikilotherm said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I reckon the efficacy step is a big hurdle. Even if something produces a response in the human body, is it likely to last long enough to get a population wide use organized? A short term response of a couple of months isn’t really going to cut the mustard.

I read somewhere the other day some trial patients in Brazil died of Covid. So I guess not every vaccine in development is going along smoothly.

The trial wasn’t halted after that death (it was one person, apparent;y), so, industry know-it-alls have assumed that patient was in the placebo group. Usually if there’s a death in the active treatment group the study gets suspended while they work out what caused the death/event/etc.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:30:43
From: ChrispenEvan
ID: 1640529
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Peak Warming Man said:


party_pants said:

buffy said:

I reckon the efficacy step is a big hurdle. Even if something produces a response in the human body, is it likely to last long enough to get a population wide use organized? A short term response of a couple of months isn’t really going to cut the mustard.

I read somewhere the other day some trial patients in Brazil died of Covid. So I guess not every vaccine in development is going along smoothly.

Not surprising given that 50% get a placebo.

yeah, but they would know which ones.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:32:45
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1640530
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Perhaps one way to speed things up would be for companies and unis to put up what does not work ?

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:34:22
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1640532
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Could AI speed things up in the vaccine world?

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 20:46:54
From: party_pants
ID: 1640533
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Tau.Neutrino said:


Could AI speed things up in the vaccine world?

No. If it could it would probably have already been done. No stone is being left unturned etc.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 21:17:13
From: sibeen
ID: 1640539
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

party_pants said:


Tau.Neutrino said:

Could AI speed things up in the vaccine world?

No. If it could it would probably have already been done. No stone is being left unturned etc.

That may be true of Buffy’s place but they certainly haven’t seen my garden.

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 21:20:17
From: ChrispenEvan
ID: 1640542
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

sibeen said:


party_pants said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Could AI speed things up in the vaccine world?

No. If it could it would probably have already been done. No stone is being left unturned etc.

That may be true of Buffy’s place but they certainly haven’t seen my garden.

how is the new place coming along?

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 21:33:17
From: transition
ID: 1640547
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

the final testing of a vaccine is in the broader rollout, larger populations, and reporting back of effectiveness(statistics regard), and importantly adverse effects, which takes time. The tolerance of adverse outcomes is different for different people, so a whatever group tolerance may be quite different to whatever example individual’s tolerance

true effectiveness can’t be known of individuals (any example individual), short of an intentional and sure exposure that the likelihood of infection-proper can be defined, verified, and this doesn’t necessarily give a clear picture of effectiveness from another infection later

Reply Quote

Date: 29/10/2020 21:43:42
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1640549
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

transition said:


the final testing of a vaccine is in the broader rollout, larger populations, and reporting back of effectiveness(statistics regard), and importantly adverse effects, which takes time. The tolerance of adverse outcomes is different for different people, so a whatever group tolerance may be quite different to whatever example individual’s tolerance

true effectiveness can’t be known of individuals (any example individual), short of an intentional and sure exposure that the likelihood of infection-proper can be defined, verified, and this doesn’t necessarily give a clear picture of effectiveness from another infection later

In general vaccines are more effective in the young, less so in the elderly, apparently.

Reply Quote

Date: 10/11/2020 14:52:15
From: sibeen
ID: 1647186
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

Reply Quote

Date: 10/11/2020 15:01:59
From: Michael V
ID: 1647187
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

sibeen said:



lol

Reply Quote

Date: 10/11/2020 15:21:17
From: dv
ID: 1647192
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

sibeen said:



No one likes a sore loser so I think Trump should just congratulate Covid-19 for winning

Reply Quote

Date: 10/11/2020 15:22:57
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1647193
Subject: re: Vaccine problems

dv said:


sibeen said:


No one likes a sore loser so I think Trump should just congratulate Covid-19 for winning

don’t know why y’all hatin’ on the man so much

we really will have a Pfizer vaccine in December, didn’t he say true

Reply Quote