Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously

We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so.

Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

“Everything to occur” is pretty broad. The complete extinction of the sun for example will take tens of billions of years.

dv said:

“Everything to occur” is pretty broad. The complete extinction of the sun for example will take tens of billions of years.

Yeah I know was just a thought that went through my head, probably without an answer.
I was thinking some events are rare in a human lifespan or even in the entirety of our existence, but for the timespan of our solar system far less so.

Cymek said:

dv said:

“Everything to occur” is pretty broad. The complete extinction of the sun for example will take tens of billions of years.

Yeah I know was just a thought that went through my head, probably without an answer.
I was thinking some events are rare in a human lifespan or even in the entirety of our existence, but for the timespan of our solar system far less so.

The extinction of the sun is not regular. It’s a one off.

Cymek said:

Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously

We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so.

Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

No. There’s so much matter in the Solar system that all the mass interacts with all the other mass (see the Three Body problem;) the best we can manage is reasonably accurate predictions for no more than a few thousand years.

btm said:

Cymek said:

Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously

We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so.

Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

No. There’s so much matter in the Solar system that all the mass interacts with all the other mass (see the Three Body problem;) the best we can manage is reasonably accurate predictions for no more than a few thousand years.

That used to be the case. But I heard some 10 plus years ago that the three body problem can be solved in momentum space.

Also, I’ve done some 3 body orbit calculations myself to high accuracy (accurate to a couple of metres error in closure per complete orbit, so accurate to within the diameter of Earth over a million years) using the old methods. All I really did was take the standard methods and increase the calculation accuracy to the next stage using a slightly better numerical method.

> Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously. We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so. Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

It would be possible to work out. Not as simple as one solar system orbit of galaxy. The precession of the equinoxes of Earth is 25,920 years. And that’s just for the Earth-Sun system. Other influences from one planet on another take longer times to cycle through. The influence of Ceres on the orbits of the asteroid belt objects is measurable, and has a periodicity longer than the age of the solar system.

The uncertainty in orbits of smaller objects when it comes to close approaches to planets mucks the periodicity up somewhat.

mollwollfumble said:

btm said:

Cymek said:

Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously

We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so.

Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

No. There’s so much matter in the Solar system that all the mass interacts with all the other mass (see the Three Body problem;) the best we can manage is reasonably accurate predictions for no more than a few thousand years.

That used to be the case. But I heard some 10 plus years ago that the three body problem can be solved in momentum space.

Also, I’ve done some 3 body orbit calculations myself to high accuracy (accurate to a couple of metres error in closure per complete orbit, so accurate to within the diameter of Earth over a million years) using the old methods. All I really did was take the standard methods and increase the calculation accuracy to the next stage using a slightly better numerical method.

> Is it possible to work our a time frame for everything that happens in our solar system on a regular basis (be that long or short term) to occur.
Excluding one of comets, extrasolar intruders, etc and other events we aren’t aware of obviously. We have events like planetary orbits of the sun which are common to other events like conjunction of planets which are less so. Would if be as simple as one solar system orbit of the galaxy and in that time everything else should have occurred.

It would be possible to work out. Not as simple as one solar system orbit of galaxy. The precession of the equinoxes of Earth is 25,920 years. And that’s just for the Earth-Sun system. Other influences from one planet on another take longer times to cycle through. The influence of Ceres on the orbits of the asteroid belt objects is measurable, and has a periodicity longer than the age of the solar system.

The uncertainty in orbits of smaller objects when it comes to close approaches to planets mucks the periodicity up somewhat.

There was a report recently (forget where, sorry) on experimentation with numerical procedures for orbit prediction which found that even tiny variations in starting parameters rapidly built up to in effect make accurate prediction impossible, no matter how precise your calculations were.

Possibly a bit off topic, but still:

An international group of scientists has published research contending that modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) — a rival idea to the popular dark matter hypothesis — more accurately predicts a galactic phenomenon that appears to defy the classic rules of gravity.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201216155158.htm

The Rev Dodgson said:

Possibly a bit off topic, but still:

An international group of scientists has published research contending that modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) — a rival idea to the popular dark matter hypothesis — more accurately predicts a galactic phenomenon that appears to defy the classic rules of gravity.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201216155158.htm

Well that’s a turn up