Date: 30/12/2020 01:01:54
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1672073
Subject: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

The internet has the answer [spoiler] but just for entertainment here you go.

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Date: 30/12/2020 09:29:08
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1672113
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:


The internet has the answer [spoiler] but just for entertainment here you go.


This from the chat thread, or what?

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Date: 30/12/2020 09:30:21
From: sibeen
ID: 1672115
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

Chat thread in 2007, so over on the old forum I’m assuming.

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Date: 30/12/2020 09:31:53
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1672118
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

sibeen said:


Chat thread in 2007, so over on the old forum I’m assuming.

Well as I said in the other thread, my time machine’s not working at the moment.

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Date: 30/12/2020 19:22:49
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1672399
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:


The internet has the answer [spoiler] but just for entertainment here you go.


Doesn’t ring bells. But let’s start with a coin.
Probability, Length
1/2, 2
1/4, 3
1/8, 4
So for coins it has a finite answer:
2/2^1 + 3/2^2 + 4/2^3 + …

For dice it would also have a finite answer, not too difficult to calculate.

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Date: 31/12/2020 22:26:37
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1672913
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

mollwollfumble said:


not too difficult to calculate.

You’re right, there, explained it that time too.

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Date: 31/12/2020 22:39:28
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1672921
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:


mollwollfumble said:

not too difficult to calculate.

You’re right, there, explained it that time too.


I worked that out whilst walking the dog this afternoon.

Only 14 years late.

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Date: 31/12/2020 22:51:23
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1672930
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

Well those were the days, and it was a good question, we use it on our students now too.

From: poisson du jour ®2/08/2006 11:46:09 AM
Subject: trivia Qpost id: 2443261
Question at trivs last night.

On average, how many times would you have to throw a dice for every number to come up?




From: SqueezeBabe ®2/08/2006 11:47:01 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443263
perfect world = 6

shrugs apart from that i don’t know…
From: Deity of the Day ®2/08/2006 11:47:42 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443265
On average, how many times would you have to throw a dice for every number to come up? ]]

Another good trivia question: how long is a peice of string?

From: Angus Prune ®2/08/2006 11:47:52 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443266
6 would be the minimum. The average would have to be higher than that.
From: Supercollider ®2/08/2006 11:47:58 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443267
You might go on throwing it forever without all the numbers coming up, but this isn’t likely.
From: Supercollider ®2/08/2006 11:49:20 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443271
Oops, I ignored the ‘on average’ bit.
From: poisson du jour ®2/08/2006 11:49:59 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443273
The question says, on average. So if you had an infinite number of trials, what would be the average number of throws before all 6 sides came up?
From: SqueezeBabe ®2/08/2006 11:51:14 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443274
So if you had an infinite number of trials<<

then you can’t have an average, technically speaking…
From: PeterT1 ®2/08/2006 11:55:36 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443283
It’s a permutation and combination question, do they still do that at school?
From: Purple ®2/08/2006 11:57:51 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443293
isn’t it 1/6 × 1/6 × 1/6 etc? though that doesn’t look right at all
From: home_quays ®2/08/2006 12:19:24 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443344
If we re-phrased the question and asked alot of questions for a specific outcome then we could chart probability v’s no. of throws etc.

probability relates to a specific event.

The question as stated is pretty open ended.
(like how long is a piece of string)

IMO
From: IDAK ®2/08/2006 12:24:19 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443352
Are you going to give Trivia comp’s answer?
From: memeist ®2/08/2006 12:29:33 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443361
For a 6-sided die, 6×6=36 times; on the odds, each number will come up at least once almost every time.

A mathematician may have a better answer, though.
From: skye  ®2/08/2006 12:29:43 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443362
>>Are you going to give Trivia comp’s answer?

I think the stated answer was 14.3, or 14 to the nearest whole number. No idea how it was derived.

We guessed 36, being an average of 6 throws for each face.

From: Topher ®2/08/2006 12:35:04 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443373
There’s a distribution that’s suited to these kind of questions- maybe a poisson distirbution. There are ways to work it out mathematically, but I can’t remember what they are.
From: poisson du jour ®2/08/2006 12:36:31 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443378
>>I think the stated answer was 14.3, or 14 to the nearest whole number

I thought it was 16. Anyway, we were nowhere near.
From: Angus Prune ®2/08/2006 12:52:18 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443410
Could someone work up a simulation, get the answer by the brute force method?
From: Topher ®2/08/2006 1:11:54 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443450
I’ve done anout 60 simualtions on a spreadsheet, and got an average of 16, with 95% CIs of +/- 1.6.

14 does seem a little low.
From: furu tanuki ®2/08/2006 1:50:47 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443565
I calculate 14.7 exactly.

From: furu tanuki ®2/08/2006 1:53:23 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443572
With the roll most likely to get the last number being the 11th.
From: mollwollfumble (Physics)2/08/2006 2:16:31 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443635
> I calculate 14.7 exactly.

Is that mean or median?
From: furu tanuki ®2/08/2006 2:35:22 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443692
mean
From: dilly sick ®2/08/2006 3:38:15 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443814
yeah i’d say somewhere between 6 and infinity
From: skye  ®2/08/2006 3:56:33 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443865

How did you do it, furu?
From: Martin B ®2/08/2006 3:58:55 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443869
“On average, how many times would you have to throw a dice for every number to come up?”

Since I am not in a position to add anything to the maths I’ll point out that you an have “dice” or “a die” but not “a dice” :p
From: ratwan2 ®2/08/2006 3:59:41 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2443870
true
From: furu tanuki ®2/08/2006 5:25:49 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2444073
>>>>>
How did you do it, furu?
<<<<<

P(n,r) = probability of having seen n different numbers after r rolls.

P(1,1) = 1,
P(2,1) = P(3,1) = P(4,1) = P(5,1) = P(6,1) = 0

For n=1,..,6 and r > 1

P(n,r) = (1-(n-1)/6)*P(n-1,r-1) + (n/6)*P(n,r-1)

Put that into Excel up to r = 500

Sum(r*(P(6,r) P(6,r-1))) = 14.7
From: poisson du jour ®2/08/2006 7:06:08 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2444135

Nil comprende. (Clever bugger.)
From: The Rev Dodgson (Eng Sci)2/08/2006 7:08:16 PM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2444136
>>
Put that into Excel up to r = 500
<<


… or any other spreadsheet you happen to have available :)
From: mollwollfumble (Physics)3/08/2006 8:59:56 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2444929
> I calculate 14.7 exactly.

Last night I saw why, and you don’t need Excel to do it.

If the probability of an event on one throw is n/6 then the expected number of throws to get that event is 6/n.

So the expected number of throws E to get all 6 numbers on a die (singular of dice) is:

E = 6/6 + 6/5 + 6/4 + 6/3 + 6/2 + 6/1 = 12 + 1.5 + 1.2 = 14.7.

“I may be slow but I get there in the end”.
From: furu tanuki ®3/08/2006 10:36:15 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2445050
Ah, a true gentleman never resorts to a spreadsheet.

Of course the fact that the number of throws to the next novel number is independent of the number of throws to achieve the previous novel number, and therefore the expectation of the sum is equal to the sum of the expectations, goes without saying.
From: The Rev Dodgson (Eng Sci)3/08/2006 10:41:17 AM
Subject: re: trivia Qpost id: 2445056
>>
Last night I saw why, and you don’t need Excel to do it.
<<

If we must refer to spreadsheets as excel, can we at least use a small e? :)

>>
If the probability of an event on one throw is n/6 then the expected number of throws to get that event is 6/n.

So the expected number of throws E to get all 6 numbers on a die (singular of dice) is:

E = 6/6 + 6/5 + 6/4 + 6/3 + 6/2 + 6/1 = 12 + 1.5 + 1.2 = 14.7.
<<

Nice, I can follow that.


>>
“I may be slow but I get there in the end”.
<<

Some of us are slower still :)
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Date: 31/12/2020 23:01:19
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1672934
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

Thanks for that.

Looks like I was still using 123 as my spreadsheet of choice back then :)

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Date: 31/12/2020 23:10:15
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1672938
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

but does Newton 123 Bach have quite the same ring to it

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Date: 31/12/2020 23:14:02
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1672939
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:


but does Newton 123 Bach have quite the same ring to it

:)

Not sure what happened between 2006 and 2008 to make me finally realise that 123 was really a dead duck.

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Date: 1/01/2021 02:05:05
From: sibeen
ID: 1672976
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

That was fascintinatingering..

I forgot The Rev used to wear that red shirt.

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Date: 1/01/2021 10:52:01
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1673034
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

Seeing as it’s a holiday, VBA code to count the number of rolls required to get all 6 numbers:

Function CountRolls(Iterations As Long)
Dim CountA() As Long, nRolls As Long, totRolls As Long, i As Long, j As Long, nMatch As Long, Maxrolls As Long, MinRolls As Long, Roll As Long
Dim ResA(1 To 3) As Double
Maxrolls = 6
MinRolls = 1000
For i = 1 To Iterations
ReDim CountA(1 To 6)
nMatch = 0
nRolls = 0
Do While nMatch < 6
nRolls = nRolls + 1
Roll = WorksheetFunction.RandBetween(1, 6)
CountA(Roll) = CountA(Roll) + 1
If CountA(Roll) = 1 Then nMatch = nMatch + 1
Loop
totRolls = totRolls + nRolls
If nRolls > Maxrolls Then Maxrolls = nRolls
If nRolls < MinRolls Then MinRolls = nRolls
Next i
ResA(1) = totRolls / Iterations
ResA(2) = Maxrolls
ResA(3) = MinRolls
CountRolls = ResA
End Function

Typical results with Iterations = 100,000:
14.71777, 85, 6
14.70904, 84, 6

Also:
The average number of attempts required to get all 6 numbers in 6 rolls is:
(6^6)/6! = 64.8

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Date: 7/01/2021 23:07:53
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1676444
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

since we’re on a roll (and yes we’ll throw our short piece of code in as well) and since that other US Election Tread inspired us to look more closely

we may have been incorrect in claiming that All Was Lost In The Exodus and so we ask

is this The Original ¿ because we will happily load up the rest of it for you all if indeed

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Date: 7/01/2021 23:09:42
From: Bubblecar
ID: 1676445
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:


since we’re on a roll (and yes we’ll throw our short piece of code in as well) and since that other US Election Tread inspired us to look more closely

we may have been incorrect in claiming that All Was Lost In The Exodus and so we ask

is this The Original ¿ because we will happily load up the rest of it for you all if indeed


That was before my time, but others may recall the historic moment.

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Date: 8/01/2021 05:20:08
From: SCIENCE
ID: 1676546
Subject: re: Rolling Question from Sisyphus

SCIENCE said:

yes we’ll throw our short piece of code in as well

var roll;
var up = [];
var rounds, rolls;
var o;

rounds = rolls = 0;

o = document.createElement("div");
document.body.appendChild(o);

(roll = function () {
     var boost;
     var n;
     var t;

     for (boost = 0; boost < 38421; boost++) {
          for (n = 0; n < 6; n++) {
               up[n] = 0;
          }
          for (n = 0; n < 6; ) {
               t = Math.floor(Math.random() * 6);
               if (up[t] == 0) {
                    up[t] = 1;
                    n++;
               }
               rolls++;
          }
          rounds++;
     }

     o.innerHTML = rolls.toString(10) + " rolls in " + rounds.toString(10) + " rounds for an average of " + (rolls / rounds).toString(10) + " rolls per round";
     window.requestAnimationFrame(roll);
})();

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