H.G.Wells “The sleeper wakes” is a prediction for the year 2100, published in 1899. So looking 200 years into the future from the end of the Victorian era.
I can’t help comparing it with Heinlein “For us the living” which is a prediction for the year 2086, published in 1939 looking 150 years into the future to 2096.
‘The sleeper wakes’ is a capitalist tyranny.
‘For us the living’ is a capitalist utopia.
Both novels got the “capitalist” correct.
Both novels have moving walkways throughout the cities, H.G.Wells got to this idea long before Heinlein. The moving walkways in ‘the sleeper wakes’ functioned like baggage claim carousels but had seats. In one instance a political demonstration through the city was seated.
Another similarity is that for both novels the sleeper wakes up with plenty of money, but Wells is more megalomanic, the sleeper wakes owning the world. Another similarity in both novels is that the sleeper gets to fly/pilot an aircraft a few days after waking up.
The main thrust of Heinlein is economics and sexual freedom. Nobody has to work in order to live, because of social services.
The main thrust of Wells is government and capitalism vs communism. A third of the workforce are virtual slaves.
Wells manages to get some predictions startlingly accurate. Appartments with minimal ornamentation. Skyscrapers. Wind power plants everywhere (even on top of skyscrapers). Also minor items sometimes. The dominant entertainment device is recognisable as Amazon Echo/Alexa. Handsome men wear what is recognisable as a T-shirt. You have to remember that ‘the sleeper wakes’ was published before the first skyscraper was built.
Wells is deliberately provocative. The manufacturer of non-presciption-medicine pills has higher status than a university medical professor. That provocative prediction has definitely come true. As is the statement that this manufacturer can produce 10 million pills a day.
Wells correctly said that the roads would supersede the rainways (particularly in Britain) but didn’t pick that roads would be paved with bitumin or concrete.
Wells incorrectly said that balloons and kites would be more used than heavier than air airplanes. He did correctly pick that the planes would be monoplanes and got the size quite accurate, but he missed the possibility of an enclosed cabin for planes so the planes couldn’t fly high. (‘the sleeper awakes’ was written before the Wright brothers first flight).
Another incorrect prediction was that hypnotherapy would replace antibiotics and other prescription medicine.
Another deliberately provocative prediction is that hairdressers have a higher status than painters. Nobody wants a rectangle of paint on canvas on their walls.
Another deliberately provocative prediction is that Wells says that there are no teachers any more. All teaching is done by sound and cinema recordings. This is just about coming true. By the year 2100 it may be correct.
Also provocative is the wet nursing of babies and toddlers by robots (lifelike from the waist up) in creches. Doesn’t seem likely.
Motherhood among the middle class is limited to having one baby. The middle class population is in sharp decline. This does seem likely.
Another provocative is that all the police are negro, imported from several African countries.
Another provocative is the highly ranked “ministry of piggeries”. Cows and sheep are no longer meat animals. Although this sounds ridioculous, if you substitute “chicken” for “pig”, it actually makes sense as aleady a very large proportion of our meat intake is chicken. Other meats are only for the wealthy and in Wells’ dystopia most people can’t afford luxuries like beef.
Yet another provocative is that the economic slavery started off as the Salvation Army. The Salvation Army found short term work for the destitute in return for food, so as the number of destituite rises above 30% of the population, everybody only has the choice of short term work for negligible pay.
Another provocative but correct prediction (by Heinlein as well) is the loss of the gold standard backing currency. Gold has negligible intrinsic value.
In ‘the sleeper wakes’, apart from T-shirts, clothing includes robes, capes (and puffs) that are coloured as a uniform to identify your job status. Wells gets women’s “evening dress” right. He misses the unisex clothing revolution.
On the topic of sex, Wells has most people in male-female marriage or equivalent (de facto). Fair enough. He also posits the existence of “pleasure cities” which puts me in mind of Los Vegas.
On gambling, the most common gambling in the year 2100 is on insurance – is the insurance policy going to pay off or not?
On religion, religion has reduced to ‘pay now and get religion immediately using hypnotherapy’.
On advertising, although stomach churning advertising is said to be everywhere, it seems as though advertising in the present day is even more prevalent than Wells predicted.
I should also add that Wells, 25 years later, thought he had made a big mistake. Cities by then were spreading outward rather than upward. But he was right in the first place, tall glass-fronted skyscrapers with footbridges between them are already a common feature of city centres around the world.
On language. Wells puts English as by far the dominant language, with some hybrid Hindi-English, Oriental-English, Spanish-English, African-English. As of now, that’s not so true of spoken language, but is completely true of language on the web. So I’m going to give Wells a 100% correct on that one.
