Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

mollwollfumble said:

Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

Adding in results from the year 2020, little wattlebird numbers continue to rise but red wattlebird numbers are back up again.
Sparrow numbers have fallen for two years in a row after an initial rise for two years in a row.
Overall, random fluctuations from year to year Australia-wide exceed trends over 5 years for the most commony seen birds.
None of the most commonly seen bird species has a dangerously rapid decline in numbers over 5 years. There is no “big loser”.

mollwollfumble said:

Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

So where are all the other birds?

mollwollfumble said:

Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

Adding in results from the year 2020, little wattlebird numbers continue to rise but red wattlebird numbers are back up again.
Sparrow numbers have fallen for two years in a row after an initial rise for two years in a row.
Overall, random fluctuations from year to year Australia-wide exceed trends over 5 years for the most commony seen birds.
None of the most commonly seen bird species has a dangerously rapid decline in numbers over 5 years. There is no “big loser”.

Good news, I added the 2020 results to the 2016-2019 results looking for trends.

The first good news is that the Australia-wide populations of none of the 25 most commonly seen bird species is collapsing. From 2016-2019 I had worries about the decline in sightings of the red wattlebird, but numbers have bounced back in 2020.

The other good news is that populations of introduced species (sparrow, myna, blackbird, spotted dove, starling) are not increasing Australia-wide to any measurable extent over 2016-2020. For instance, sparrow sightings increased from 2016 to 2018 and came back down from 2018 to 2020.

Apart from the little wattlebird, all 25 of the most commonly seen species have stable populations with large random year to year variations. Little wattlebird numbers appear to be increasing, from 0.68% of sightings in 2016 to 1.33% of sightings in 2020.

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

So where are all the other birds?

Thank you for asking :-) Here are all the other birds.
There are a frighteningly large number of losers here. The straw necked Ibis is the only big winner.
Big losers include the figbird, bell miner, ringneck, red-browed finch, and others.

mollwollfumble said:

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

Yippee. The results of the Australian Backyard Bird Count from Oct 2020 have just become available today.

Look to https://birdlife.org.au/images/uploads/ABBC/2020_ABBC_Species_list.xlsx

The results will become available on “Download the 2020 species list for Australia and the states/territories” on page https://aussiebirdcount.org.au/2020-results/ soon but at the moment it’s still a broken link.

This will be the first year where we will have enough data to get statistically reliable trends as to whether bird populations across Australia are increasing or declining in number, or just fluctuating randomly. Last year the strongest Australia-wide population trends to that date were that populations of little wattebird were increasing year by year and that populations of red wattlebird were decreasing year by year by the same amount. I can test that hypothesis now.

This is the chart from previous years.

So where are all the other birds?

Thank you for asking :-) Here are all the other birds.
There are a frighteningly large number of losers here. The straw necked Ibis is the only big winner.
Big losers include the figbird, bell miner, ringneck, red-browed finch, and others.

Yes that looks pretty devastating for many species.

roughbarked said:

Yes that looks pretty devastating for many species.

First statistical analysis done, the 93 most commonly seen species.

Species with sightings decreasing at more than 5% per year.
eg. The change in numbers of the zebra finch is only barely significant because numbers vary so much from year to year.

Species with sightings increasing at more than 5% per year.

moll…do you know about the red-tailed black count done each year?

http://www.redtail.com.au/results.html

buffy said:

moll…do you know about the red-tailed black count done each year?

http://www.redtail.com.au/results.html

Ta. I didn’t know. I like that.

That is counting south-eastern birds. South Australia and Victoria.
Isn’t the range of the red-tailed black mostly in northern Australia?

A warning not to trust the statistics from only 5 years of ABBC data too unreservedly.
I ran the same statistical analysis with purely random numbers, no actual rises and falls, and the results found for the 93 psuedo-species:
1 “very significant” fall in population.
5 “very significant” rises in population.
2 “significant” falls in population.
4 “significant” rises in population.

So as many as all of the real species observed to have significant or very significant rises in sightings could have been artefacts of random variation.
And perhaps a few, eg. three, of the 23 species found to have significant or very significant falls in sightings could have also have been artefacts of random variation.

mollwollfumble said:

buffy said:

moll…do you know about the red-tailed black count done each year?

http://www.redtail.com.au/results.html

Ta. I didn’t know. I like that.

That is counting south-eastern birds. South Australia and Victoria.
Isn’t the range of the red-tailed black mostly in northern Australia?

A warning not to trust the statistics from only 5 years of ABBC data too unreservedly.
I ran the same statistical analysis with purely random numbers, no actual rises and falls, and the results found for the 93 psuedo-species:
1 “very significant” fall in population.
5 “very significant” rises in population.
2 “significant” falls in population.
4 “significant” rises in population.

So as many as all of the real species observed to have significant or very significant rises in sightings could have been artefacts of random variation.
And perhaps a few, eg. three, of the 23 species found to have significant or very significant falls in sightings could have also have been artefacts of random variation.

There are four subspecies in existence; Calyptorhynchus banksii banksii in Queensland and northern New South Wales, C. b. graptogyne of Victoria and South Australia, C. b. macrorhynchus of northern Australian, the C. b. naso of Western Australia and C. b. samueli, mostly found in central Australia and parts of WA. According to the Australian Museum.

mollwollfumble said:

buffy said:

moll…do you know about the red-tailed black count done each year?

http://www.redtail.com.au/results.html

Ta. I didn’t know. I like that.

That is counting south-eastern birds. South Australia and Victoria.
Isn’t the range of the red-tailed black mostly in northern Australia?

A warning not to trust the statistics from only 5 years of ABBC data too unreservedly.
I ran the same statistical analysis with purely random numbers, no actual rises and falls, and the results found for the 93 psuedo-species:
1 “very significant” fall in population.
5 “very significant” rises in population.
2 “significant” falls in population.
4 “significant” rises in population.

So as many as all of the real species observed to have significant or very significant rises in sightings could have been artefacts of random variation.
And perhaps a few, eg. three, of the 23 species found to have significant or very significant falls in sightings could have also have been artefacts of random variation.

The red-tails here are endangered. It’s taken pretty seriously. Some years back (15-20, I think), some of the blue gum plantationers knocked down nesting hollow trees. The trees are also protected, you are not allowed to knock them down. The plantationers copped fines and were made to concrete the trees upright again so the birds could continue to use them.

We think we have heard them out at our Digby bush block, but not seen them. We did the count one year, but had nothing to report.

OK buffy. Subspecies at risk.
Could be most or all subspecies at risk according to ABBC results.

I spent 2 hours last night putting together all the ABBC results for all the states and territories. Forgot to save.
Not inputting all that stuff again.
So, sorry, no charts comparing species with declining sightings across the various states will be appearing on this page.