India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

We should see a result by the end of the century. However, African countries are the real problem.

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

OH NO!!!!

PermeateFree said:

However, African countries are the real problem.

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

SCIENCE said:

PermeateFree said:

However, African countries are the real problem.

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

I don’t know why you would suppose that, but if the problem being discussed is population growth, then no, at the moment rich countries are mostly not the problem, regardless of their longitude.

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

They are trying to reverse it, without much effect. They introduced a three child policy last year, up from the two child policy they’d adopted a few years ago.

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level

When something happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of un predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (nfhs-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There is some indication that China’s population may have fallen last year.

The Rev Dodgson said:

SCIENCE said:

PermeateFree said:

However, African countries are the real problem.

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

I don’t know why you would suppose that, but if the problem being discussed is population growth, then no, at the moment rich countries are mostly not the problem, regardless of their longitude.

It’s not just how long they live it’s how they use the resources.

sibeen said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There is some indication that China’s population may have fallen last year.

Hmm, lucky they had such low covid deaths then.

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

SCIENCE said:

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

I don’t know why you would suppose that, but if the problem being discussed is population growth, then no, at the moment rich countries are mostly not the problem, regardless of their longitude.

It’s not just how long they live it’s how they use the resources.

No, population growth has nothing to do with how they use resources.

You seem to be considering a different, more general, problem.

The Rev Dodgson said:

sibeen said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There is some indication that China’s population may have fallen last year.

Hmm, lucky they had such low covid deaths then.

so shall we be expecting India to introduce a 3 child policy a andor being incentives soon

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

sibeen said:

There is some indication that China’s population may have fallen last year.

Hmm, lucky they had such low covid deaths then.

so shall we be expecting India to introduce a 3 child policy a andor breeding incentives soon

added r e d our apologies

The Rev Dodgson said:

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

I don’t know why you would suppose that, but if the problem being discussed is population growth, then no, at the moment rich countries are mostly not the problem, regardless of their longitude.

It’s not just how long they live it’s how they use the resources.

No, population growth has nothing to do with how they use resources.

You seem to be considering a different, more general, problem.

not really, we’re considering what was alluded to as a real problem

SCIENCE said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

SCIENCE said:

It’s not just how long they live it’s how they use the resources.

No, population growth has nothing to do with how they use resources.

You seem to be considering a different, more general, problem.

not really, we’re considering what was alluded to as a real problem

… but I was considering population growth, which is a real problem regardless of use of resources.

sibeen said:

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

They are trying to reverse it, without much effect. They introduced a three child policy last year, up from the two child policy they’d adopted a few years ago.

Quite. Although Total Fertility rate isn’t the same thing as birthrate, the latter continues to tank, and looks as though it will pass the death rate shortly.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2022/01/22/chinas-birth-rate-not-a-problem-for-economy—now/?sh=109c7d558df8

“China’s birth rate continues to fall. “Last year’s 10.62 million births, down from 12.02 million in 2020, barely outnumbered the 10.14 million death,” according to the Wall Street Journal. China’s rate of births per female is now down to 1.3, well below the replace rate of 2.1. The country’s low population growth, both now and in the future, has caused worry about China’s future economic growth. That worry is much overdone, though it’s clear that China’s fastest growth is past.”

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

That’s good.

How is China going?

But how long before they catch the western market meme that a declining (or even a flat) population is a disaster for a market economy?

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There’s still a huge bolus of old people in China, and in much of the West, that is only now starting to drop off in great numbers.

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There’s still a huge bolus of old people in China, and in much of the West, that is only now starting to drop off in great numbers.

Yes, most of us boomers will do our bit to reduce world population over the next 20 years or so.

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

China has been below replacement for a very long time, fertility rate now around 1.6.

Jolly good.

It does illustrate though that it takes an awful long time after fertility rate falls below the magic number before populations start to fall.

There’s still a huge bolus of old people in China, and in much of the West, that is only now starting to drop off in great numbers.

This. I’m the tail end of that baby boom. Well, I was, for many years the post war baby boom was considered to be 1946 to 1960. But more recently it seems to have been eased out to about 1963-64ish or something. Mr buffy and his sibs really fit the definition. His Dad came out of the army in late 1946 to find his wife had nicked off with someone, divorced, met and married C. (there was a small delay while they waited for the wheels to turn for the decree nisi) and they started the family. First child 1948 (she was a 6 month gestation?!), 1951 and 1953.

I don’t know much about anything but if people in the West do consider high African birthrates to be a problem, they should do everything in their power to turn those places into wealthy industrialised nations post-haste.

Hey remember when that reality TV host was president of the United States? Hard to believe but it happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/21/trump-global-death-warrant-women-family-planning-population-reproductive-rights-mexico-city-policy

 Six months ago, one powerful white man in the White House, watched by seven more, signed a piece of paper that will prevent millions of women around the world from deciding what they can and can’t do with their own bodies.

In that moment, on his very first Monday morning in office, Donald Trump effectively signed the death warrants of thousands of women. He reversed global progress on contraception, family planning, unsustainable population growth and reproductive rights. 

dv said:

I don’t know much about anything but if people in the West do consider high African birthrates to be a problem, they should do everything in their power to turn those places into wealthy industrialised nations post-haste.

Hey remember when that reality TV host was president of the United States? Hard to believe but it happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/21/trump-global-death-warrant-women-family-planning-population-reproductive-rights-mexico-city-policy

 Six months ago, one powerful white man in the White House, watched by seven more, signed a piece of paper that will prevent millions of women around the world from deciding what they can and can’t do with their own bodies.

In that moment, on his very first Monday morning in office, Donald Trump effectively signed the death warrants of thousands of women. He reversed global progress on contraception, family planning, unsustainable population growth and reproductive rights. 

The problem with that statement is wealthy people with higher standards of living use vastly more resources per person than the poor living in slums. With the current human population the world’s resources are stretched way too thin and with further growth in more wealthy people demanding higher standards of living is certainly going to make it unsustainable. We are in a bind of our own making with no easy way out, or more likely no way out.

PermeateFree said:

dv said:

I don’t know much about anything but if people in the West do consider high African birthrates to be a problem, they should do everything in their power to turn those places into wealthy industrialised nations post-haste.

Hey remember when that reality TV host was president of the United States? Hard to believe but it happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/21/trump-global-death-warrant-women-family-planning-population-reproductive-rights-mexico-city-policy

 Six months ago, one powerful white man in the White House, watched by seven more, signed a piece of paper that will prevent millions of women around the world from deciding what they can and can’t do with their own bodies.

In that moment, on his very first Monday morning in office, Donald Trump effectively signed the death warrants of thousands of women. He reversed global progress on contraception, family planning, unsustainable population growth and reproductive rights. 

The problem with that statement is wealthy people with higher standards of living use vastly more resources per person than the poor living in slums. With the current human population the world’s resources are stretched way too thin and with further growth in more wealthy people demanding higher standards of living is certainly going to make it unsustainable. We are in a bind of our own making with no easy way out, or more likely no way out.

You’re 100% correct.

I’ve been tracking total fertility rate around the world on and off for about 40 years.

The USA was the first country with a fertility rate below replacement, in the mid 1960s.
Spain was the country that for a long time had the lowest fertility rate, about 1.3 where replacement is about 2.05 to 2.1 depending on infant mortality.

Last time I looked, all countries of Europe, northern Asia and Oceana had a fertility rate below replacement.

But last time I looked, despite the fertility rate plummeting in India and plummetting less slowly in Pakisatan, the fertility rate in India was still above replacement.

Let’s see if I can dig up some relatively recent data. Fertility rates worldwide.

This was 1858. No country had a fertility rate below replacement levels.

This was 1947, the “baby boomer” period. Fertility rates were way form from 1858, but still no country had fertility rate beloiw replacement levels.

By 1973, the USA, Canada, Russia, and some of Europe had a fertility rate below replacement level.

This was 2017.

Selected countries, tracked for 100 years 1917 to 2017. Fertility rates have been dropping everywhere, even Nigeria.
By 2017, Spain, China, Russia, Brazil and US are below replacement fertility. India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria are above.

SCIENCE said:

PermeateFree said:

However, African countries are the real problem.

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

ohm mah … he said the “c” word!

monkey skipper said:

SCIENCE said:

PermeateFree said:

However, African countries are the real problem.

privileged rich cuntries wouldn’t ever be a problem we suppose

ohm mah … he said the “c” word!

https://newint.org/features/2021/12/07/feature-how-british-colonizers-caused-bengal-famine

The mass starvation that killed three million Indians during the closing years of the Second World War was no act of nature; it was engineered. Britain must face up to this crime, says Jason Hickel.

FtR I’m not among those in a tiz about the fertility rate in Africa still being over 3. It’ll work out.

dv said:

FtR I’m not among those in a tiz about the fertility rate in Africa still being over 3. It’ll work out.

Fertility rate in Africa from 2000 to 2021

Births per woman 2000 = 5.25
Births per woman 2021 = 4.25

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1225857/fertility-rate-in-africa/

PermeateFree said:

dv said:

FtR I’m not among those in a tiz about the fertility rate in Africa still being over 3. It’ll work out.

Fertility rate in Africa from 2000 to 2021

Births per woman 2000 = 5.25
Births per woman 2021 = 4.25

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1225857/fertility-rate-in-africa/

It’s good to see you two getting on so well and agreeing with each other.

Big thumbs up :)

sibeen said:

PermeateFree said:

dv said:

FtR I’m not among those in a tiz about the fertility rate in Africa still being over 3. It’ll work out.

Fertility rate in Africa from 2000 to 2021

Births per woman 2000 = 5.25
Births per woman 2021 = 4.25

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1225857/fertility-rate-in-africa/

It’s good to see you two getting on so well and agreeing with each other.

Big thumbs up :)

Fertility rates in Africa
The vast majority of the countries with the highest fertility rates are in Africa. Collectively, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest average fertility rate in the world at 4.6. Niger tops the list at 6.8 children per woman, followed by Somalia at 6.0, the Democratic Republic of Congo (5.8), Mali (5.8), and Chad (5.6).

The North African country of Tunisia has the lowest fertility rate on the continent at 2.2 children per woman. But even this, the lowest rate in Africa, rests roughly in the middle of the global list of more than two hundred countries and territories. In terms of countries with the highest birth rate, Niger is again the highest in the world at 46 births per 1,000 people in 2019.

According to a paper published by the UN, Africa’s high rates can be attributed to low contraception use, early and universal marriage, the high fertility rate, early childbearing, childbearing across much of a woman’s reproductive life span, and high social values placed on childbearing. While it is true that many African countries are experiencing declining fertility rates—for example, Nigeria’s fertility rate decreased from 6.35 in 1960 to 5.3 in 2019—these reductions reflect a global trend as opposed to a regional one.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/total-fertility-rate

the other question arises of what is the death rate = people needing replacement ?

my thought being the higher rate of death in Africa
due to drought, starvation, disease, animal attack, &
war may far outweigh most 1st & 2nd world countries

therefore I’m not about to sit up nights fretting over a
birthrate which some conspiracy theorists may be
pushing about “them” breeding out whitey! o-8=

Ogmog said:

the other question arises of what is the death rate = people needing replacement ?

my thought being the higher rate of death in Africa
due to drought, starvation, disease, animal attack, &
war may far outweigh most 1st & 2nd world countries

therefore I’m not about to sit up nights fretting over a
birthrate which some conspiracy theorists may be
pushing about “them” breeding out whitey! o-8=

The death rate is the same everywhere, 100%.

Increased lifespan increases population as a one-off, but it doesn’t increase population growth in the longer term.

And where did the crap about “conspiracy theories” come from?

No-one has said anything about _“them” breeding out whitey.

Continuing population growth in Africa is a problem because it will make the place unliveable for the resulting increased population.

It’s primarily a problem for Africans living in Africa.