As climate change continues to progress, so will its effects. In a new collaborative report, NASA and other U.S. government agencies have found that sea levels will rise up to a foot by 2050.

The report, which comes from a sea level rise task force that includes a number of government agencies including NASA as well as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has concluded that sea levels along U.S. coastlines will, on average, rise between 10 and 12 inches (25 to 30 centimeters) above today’s levels by 2050. This means that, in just 30 years, ocean height could rise as much as it has risen in the past 100 years.

This new report includes “the most up-to-date, long term sea level rise projections for all of the United States and Territories,” NOAA Administrator Rich Spinrad said during a news conference Tuesday (Feb. 15), adding that “what we’re reporting out today is historic.”

More:
https://www.livescience.com/historic-sea-level-rise-predicted-nasa

> sea levels will rise up to a foot by 2050.

That’s one centimetre per year.

That “up to” again. Don’t quote extreme values, they’re statistically meaningless. What does the report ACTUALLY say. The report is at:

https://aambpublicoceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanserviceprod/hazards/sealevelrise/2.0-Future-Mean-Sea-Level.pdf

What the report actually says is that the present trajectory is for a rise of 18 cm over the next 30 years, give or take a factor of 2.
But whether it’s 18 cm or 30 cm, it hardly matters. It’s good for the crabs either way.

mollwollfumble said:

> sea levels will rise up to a foot by 2050.

That’s one centimetre per year.

That “up to” again. Don’t quote extreme values, they’re statistically meaningless. What does the report ACTUALLY say. The report is at:

https://aambpublicoceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanserviceprod/hazards/sealevelrise/2.0-Future-Mean-Sea-Level.pdf

What the report actually says is that the present trajectory is for a rise of 18 cm over the next 30 years, give or take a factor of 2.
But whether it’s 18 cm or 30 cm, it hardly matters. It’s good for the crabs either way.

Well the report I saw said:
The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise
Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 – 12 inches (0.25 – 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 – 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.

Also:
“Don’t quote extreme values, they’re statistically meaningless.”
is just wrong.

Considering the consequences of the worst case is standard engineering practice, or at least it is supposed to be.

For engineering, it’s imperative that we engineer for tsunamis.

Sea level rise in perspective.

PermeateFree said:

As climate change continues to progress, so will its effects. In a new collaborative report, NASA and other U.S. government agencies have found that sea levels will rise up to a foot by 2050.

< snip >
This new report includes “the most up-to-date, long term sea level rise projections for all of the United States and Territories,” NOAA Administrator Rich Spinrad said during a news conference Tuesday (Feb. 15), adding that “what we’re reporting out today is historic.”

More:
https://www.livescience.com/historic-sea-level-rise-predicted-nasa

I think it would be more effective in driving the point home
if they presented a 1 foot lateral rise in sea level as a map
showing how far in land the water will creep given the rise.

In as much as most civilizations arose very near to coasts,
bays and tidal rivers, how it’s likely to directly impact their
lives … World Wide

As for me, I recently had opportunity / choice as to where
I could relocate, & even without the aid of an impact map
CHOSE to move 30 klicks further from the coast & several
meters higher in elevation. ( Why wait ‘til the last minute? )

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

Ogmog said:

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

Interesting website. I had a play with changing sea levels around my area and realised that the map heights are the treetops. By changing the level, I could tell that patches of bush stayed above the new level, even though the ground around them would be under.

Kingy said:

Ogmog said:

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

Interesting website. I had a play with changing sea levels around my area and realised that the map heights are the treetops. By changing the level, I could tell that patches of bush stayed above the new level, even though the ground around them would be under.

There was an SF story about the Thames valley being inundated and another one about flooding through Africa’s rift valley.

Sea-level rises vary around the world, with the study being done for the North American coast, which is higher than land around the equator. However 12” or 30 cm rise in less than 30 years is vastly more than was predicted only a few years ago when it was considered to be less than a third of the new prediction. This for your information moll is not only a considerable increase, but the speed of change is accelerating enormously.

Ogmog said:

PermeateFree said:

More:
https://www.livescience.com/historic-sea-level-rise-predicted-nasa

I think it would be more effective in driving the point home
if they presented a 1 foot lateral rise in sea level as a map
showing how far in land the water will creep given the rise.

In as much as most civilizations arose very near to coasts,
bays and tidal rivers, how it’s likely to directly impact their
lives … World Wide

As for me, I recently had opportunity / choice as to where
I could relocate, & even without the aid of an impact map
CHOSE to move 30 klicks further from the coast & several
meters higher in elevation. ( Why wait ‘til the last minute? )

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

my point is
although one might imagine that 1 foot of water is barely knee high
most people fail to realize that they’d have to wade out 1000’s of feet
to reach that depth… and of course that means your basement would be
6-8 ft below the surface of the water that shorted out all your electricity etc.

so if they want to scare people into changing their behavior, an inundation map
would have far more impact on the people than merely saying “A Foot of Water!”

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) Viewer

Ogmog said:

Ogmog said:

PermeateFree said:

More:
https://www.livescience.com/historic-sea-level-rise-predicted-nasa

I think it would be more effective in driving the point home
if they presented a 1 foot lateral rise in sea level as a map
showing how far in land the water will creep given the rise.

In as much as most civilizations arose very near to coasts,
bays and tidal rivers, how it’s likely to directly impact their
lives … World Wide

As for me, I recently had opportunity / choice as to where
I could relocate, & even without the aid of an impact map
CHOSE to move 30 klicks further from the coast & several
meters higher in elevation. ( Why wait ‘til the last minute? )

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

my point is
although one might imagine that 1 foot of water is barely knee high
most people fail to realize that they’d have to wade out 1000’s of feet
to reach that depth… and of course that means your basement would be
6-8 ft below the surface of the water that shorted out all your electricity etc.

so if they want to scare people into changing their behavior, an inundation map
would have far more impact on the people than merely saying “A Foot of Water!”

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) Viewer

By the end of the century, it will be around 1 metre sealevel rise. Now that will cause a few problems.

PermeateFree said:

Ogmog said:

Ogmog said:

I think it would be more effective in driving the point home
if they presented a 1 foot lateral rise in sea level as a map
showing how far in land the water will creep given the rise.

In as much as most civilizations arose very near to coasts,
bays and tidal rivers, how it’s likely to directly impact their
lives … World Wide

As for me, I recently had opportunity / choice as to where
I could relocate, & even without the aid of an impact map
CHOSE to move 30 klicks further from the coast & several
meters higher in elevation. ( Why wait ‘til the last minute? )

An approximate inundation map may prove helpful to others
…I’m sure there are better ones if anyone cares to participate

Interactive Inundation Map

my point is
although one might imagine that 1 foot of water is barely knee high
most people fail to realize that they’d have to wade out 1000’s of feet
to reach that depth… and of course that means your basement would be
6-8 ft below the surface of the water that shorted out all your electricity etc.

so if they want to scare people into changing their behavior, an inundation map
would have far more impact on the people than merely saying “A Foot of Water!”

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) Viewer

By the end of the century, it will be around 1 metre sealevel rise. Now that will cause a few problems.

my question remains
Is there a formula to calculate “the Creep Factor”?
How far water will creep inland given the height of sea level rise
calculated by the topography of each given area?

There are such flood risk calculators used by Insurance Companies
my question is
is there one to calculate the inundation of water due to climate change?