monkey skipper said:
https://fb.watch/by6WOUoiKE/
Saw this on Facebook. Whether fact or fiction. There is a prediction that in 50 years approximately there will be a nuclear event that is initiated in the US allegedly
The video is interesting viewing and it could be interesting to discuss how to debate it’s validity through debate how likely is the rise of nuclear war within the next 50 years and why.
How likely is it that humans will become this next species and could it simply be that so called aliens have just simply been a future human species going back in time to find out what really happened in the past?
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Please share your thoughts and criticisms
> There is a prediction that in 50 years approximately there will be a nuclear event that is initiated in the US allegedly
The US has been doing everything to retain its 100% first strike success, like forever.
The USSR aim during the cold war was to retain a 2% nuclear missile survival, purely for defence purposes, in the event of a US first strike. The US won the cold war on the grounds that it could wipe out 100% of the Soviet nuclear missiles on first strike. Given that the USSR had literally zero defence against the US, it had to give up.
At the break-up of the USSR in 1990, three soviet countries possessed nuclear weapons. Only three. Russia, the Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. An agreement was reached whereby the Ukraine and Kazakhstan agreed to give all their nuclear weapons back to Russia on the condition that Russia would protect the Ukraine and Kazakhstan against NATO and other forces by using means up to and including nuclear weapons.
However, so far as I have heard so correct me if I am wrong, there has been no withdrawal of American nuclear weapons form Europe.
At then end of the cold war, the USSR had a lot of Highly Enriched Uranium. The USA took all of this, leaving Russia virtually defenceless in the long term. This probably doubled the US stockpile of the most difficult to manufacture nuclear weapon material. Possibly more than doubled it. The USA claimed that it was using all the Russian weapons grade HEU for peaceful purposes, but I have my doubts.
In April 2009, Obama proposed and put in place a bipartisan nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia. The Unites States military immediately started cheating on this. They destroyed many of their old weapons, yes. But their purpose had nothing to do with disarmament. Instead, their purpose was that the old weapons used tritium which, with its half life of only 12.3 years, needed a lot of maintenance to keep active. So the US went in for a massive program of nuclear weapons modernisation. Replacing the tritium-based nuclear weapons with weapons that required much less maintenance. I haven’t seen specs for the new nuclear weapons, but from basic physics I suspect that they replaced the tritium with lithium, which lasts forever.
The old nuclear weapon tritium was sold off as key chain lights. You can track nuclear weapons disarmament by the timing of the sale of new key chain lights.
Although claiming to destroy their nuclear weapons, on disassembly the US retained all the plutonium cores in storage for re-use in new weapons at some time in future. As a result. the US could whenever they want mass-produce new nuclear weapons extremely rapidly.
By the time that there should have been no strategic nuclear weapons left in the US or Russia according to Obama’s plan, the number of active nuclear weapons in the US had only been cut by 1/2 to 2/3. And these are probably of the new breed, easier to maintain and easier to use.
Trump, when he came to power, hadn’t even heard of the nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia, which made it exceedingly easy for one of his advisors to cancel nuclear disarmament during Trump’s first phone call to the Russian president.
Am I making the picture clear? There is still a very high likelihood of a US initiated nuclear war in the next 50 years. It’s a lower likelihood than in April 2009, but it’s still a number one concern.
According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in the US, the doomsday clock is sitting at 100 seconds to midnight. ie. they expect a nuclear war very soon. But my opinion is that that is overly pessimistic. The jump upward in 2010 away from nuclear doom should have been much larger, up to about the 1995 level of 14 minutes to midnight. Trump’s visit to North Korea in 2018 defused a then potentially explosive World War 3 nuclear threat, so should have been a jump away from disaster on the doomsday clock. Ditto Trump’s withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. America’s war against Russia in Syria, started by Obama, came with the threat of a future nuclear war. The withdrawal of American troops from Syria was a positive step.
The book “The New Nuclear Threat”, published not that long ago, suggested scenarios by which a Nuclear World War 3 could start. With flashpoints in North Korea, the Middle East, South America and elsewhere.
The Russia-Ukraine situation is a major step towards a nuclear WW3. After Russia is defeated in the Ukraine, as it will be and has to be, it seems quite possible that the USA will start dropping nuclear bombs on Moscow, with the full approval of most countries in the United Nations.
I thank the lord that India and China had the sense to remain neutral in the recent UN vote on Russia. If either had voted either way then WW3 within 50 years would have been much more inevitable.
