This has been a topic in chat so might be worth a thread.
Just as an exercise, I’ll estimate the renewable power potential for Singapore.
Singapore’s mean electrical power consumption is around 5 GW.
Tidal and wave: negligible
Geothermal: mediocre.
Despite its proximity to the Ring of Fire there’s not a lot of shallow potential geothermal power in Singapore. There are a few deeper spots that could be explored but it would be remarkable if you could get 100 MW out of it even if you pulled out all stops.
Hydro: negligible. There’s no significant elevation difference across the whole island: there’s less than there used to be, and there’ll be less in the future due to flattening of hillocks for materials.
Solar
Rooftop PV: the preference for highrise means that the sqm of roof per person is low. If you throw in commercial and admin buildings etc, ballpark … there might be 10 square km of rooftop in Singapore. On the plus side, the sun passes right overhead and although it is often raining or cloudy you still end up with around 4.5 kWh/sqm per day irradiation. Install pretty good PV, say 20% efficiency: and you’re at 375 MW.
But perhaps in Singapore a serious option would be PV on the sides of the building on the east and west. When I consider the dimensions of a typical housing block in Singapore, allow for shadow from other buildings, allow for reduced irradiation due to more atmospheric absorption when the sun is at low angles… I mean the potential should still be at least as much as rooftop solar.
Now there are several thousands of solar installations in Singapore already, including on warehouses, public buildings, blocks of flats etc. Nameplate capacity is around 440 MWPeak, which I would say means about 80 MW mean. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch06/index6
Open space is at a premium in Singapore and it would be hard to make a social or economic case for taking up much civil land for a solar plant. There are some small forested areas and likewise it would not be good to clear those to put up a big PV or solar thermal plant. However there is potential for using water reservoirs’ surfaces. A 60MWpeak (11 MW mean) floating PV plant was built. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/singapore-unveils-one-worlds-biggest-floating-solar-panel-farms-2021-07-14/
Obv, there are also some environmental concerns about this. Bird life and aquatic life rather depend on some sunlight getting to the water surface to sustain photosynthesis. But going by the total size of the reservoirs it should be possible to build 4 sq km of such floaters without messing too much with the shallow water ecosystems. So that might be another 150 MW mean, taking us to 900 MW total.
Now one thing that Singapore makes a lot of is land. They’ve added about 160 sq km of territory since the 1970s. They’ve extended their coasts, built peninsulas and islands. Some of it is industrial, some commercial, a lot of it is used for port facilities etc. So you might think, why not just build an island specifically to host enough PV or solar thermal plant to produce all its power. They could in fact do this. For PV, it would be about 135 sq km in area. Efficiencies of solar thermal are higher so in that case it might be about 80 sq km. That’s about as much land as they are planning to add by 2030 anyway. The thing is: they’ve already got plans for that land, and because making new land is expensive they are expecting to get high returns for it. Based on projects I’ve been involved in it seems they are paying just about half a billion dollars per sq km of new land.
(Note that every time I speak about watts here, I am talking about average watts, not installed capacity, unless specified otherwise).
Wind power
Situation near the equator, Singapore is not a windy place with average wind speeds around 2 m/s, and windpower densities about an order of magnitude lower than the sites of Australia’s major windfarms. Nor are there any hills or ranges that would enable higher than average windspeeds. Remember that available power is proportional to the cube of windspeed. Typically people won’t bother with a windfarm unless mean speeds are at least 6 m/s. Some companies manufacture turbines for low speeds but the bang for buck is low.
But even if you were to somehow build elevated turbines over the entire island with turbines with say 100 metre rotor diameter with a power coefficient of 0.38 then the output per unit might be:
pi * (40 m)^2 * 1.23 kg/m^3 * 0.38 * (2m/s)^3 * 0.5 = 14.400 kW. This is a beast that would be churning out 3 or 4 MW in South Australia.
Using the 40D^2 spacing for windfarms, you’d could feasibly built 1750 such turbines on the S’pore mainland, which comes to … 25 MW. The cost per MW is mindboggling. It’s just not a goer. I could do the calcs for their offshore potential but it doesn’t get around the low speed problem.
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In summary I think geothermal could maybe provide 2 or 3% of Singapore’s electrical power. Wind, wave and tidal just aren’t going to be worth it. Solar power would be the only way to cover Singapore’s power needs using renewables. Within Singapore’s current areas PV could make up maybe 20% of what is required without being disruptive but pushing it much past that would eat into the precious woodlands or public spaces. I don’t think there’d be any theoretical reason that reclaimed land couldn’t be used to host a series of solar thermal plants with enough mean output to cover all of Singapore’s needs but it would of course add tremendously to the cost of the project, and there are some environmental concerns about land reclamation in Singapore anyway.
