Unless my archives are incomplete, here is the first thread by Peak Oil Man, back in Aug 04.

http://dazvoz.com/sssfarchives/topic1226650.shtm

The basic premise by POM and my response to it (here, as Everyone Loves Iago) is basically the crux of the whole argument that continued over the following 6 years or so. New data came in but it really didn’t shift the discussion much.

Here’s a later Peak Oil thread by Russell, from 2010.

http://dazvoz.com/sssfarchives/4805350.shtm

I think the key to the longevity of this meme is that it pairs a statement that is obviously true (that global oil production will one day reach an overall maximum) with statements that are dubious (peak oil will arrive in 1997/2003/2007 and there will be a critical shock when demand exceeds supply that will end modern agriculture and air transport in a short period etc etc).

I’m not going to say it is the daftest idea that ever infected public consciousness but I was a bit surprised at how seriously it was being treated by journalists.

Apart from the illogic of it, the other troublesome aspect is that it pretends a catastrophe would come because of a lack of oil, whereas the real impending catastrophe could come because there’s just too damned much of it.

The two prongs of the wrongness were that a) peak oil was coming very soon (originally 1997 and then delayed in stages to 2007 by British geologist Colin Campbell) and b) that the effects would be sudden and drastic.

Addressing these two separately:

PEAK OIL TIMING The exact timing of peak oil is of course uncertain and because production is variable there are many “local” peaks, and we won’t know which was the actual historical maximum until decades later, probably. Nonetheless, the basis on which Campbell made his estimates was unsound. He began by fitting a bell curve (the Hubbert curve, named for Marion King Hubbert) to the US oil production graph, then using those parameters to fit a curve to global production. The complexity of global trends, the development of new fields, and improvements in technology all suggested to other authors that there was no real reason to think that global production would follow a similar curve. The whole history of oil exploration and production has been one of staged advancements in location and recovery, with old fields being revitalised by developments and new fields coming on line. Even during the period of “Peak Peak Oil Talk”, huge new fields were found and techniques for extracting tight oil were improved. Campbell estimated that we were around 50% of the way through the ultimate recoverable oil on Earth: more mainstream estimates were more like 30%. Some of Campbell’s followers would suggest that Saudi Arabia was vastly overstating its reserves … but why? The Saudis would get better value by understating them, leading to higher prices. Indeed a conspiracy-minded person might suggest that the reason why some people were pushing P.O. theories in order to drive up oil prices.

A specific number was often repeated, that oil production would never go over 87 million barrels a day. Even certain Green politicians took up this number.

But time wore on and oil production kept rising. 2019 had the highest production so far, at 95 million barrels a day (average for the year). The decline in 2020 and 2021 was because of a decline in demand because of covid, not because of intrinsic supply limitations.

The real nail in the coffin of the Campbell catastrophe was the fact that US oil production came back up, going way past its original peak, meaning that even the original simple model for production in that one country was thrown out. The US is now the world’s biggest oil producing nation.

Will 2019 end up being the all-time global peak? It is possible, but I doubt it. In the thread above I suggested that the likely range from 2025 to 2040 and I think that’s still reasonable. The major impacts on oil production in the last few years have been a virus and a war, and I don’t know what the next few years hold obviously. On the other hand the exact year of the peak oil production is not even a particularly important piece of data, it will ultimately just be a piece of statistical trivia as discussed in the next section.

THE IMPORTANCE OF PEAK OIL

There is genuine uncertainty about the remaining oil resources and the rate at which we can extract them and market conditions etc etc so even though Campbell’s (increasingly delayed) estimates of the timing of peak oil were way earlier than the mainstream I can basically accept that they could have been made by a good faith oddball, like Toscanelli and his inaccurate estimates of the Earth’s circumference that led Columbus astray.

I’m not so generous when it comes to Campbell’s apocalyptic vision of the effects of a peak in oil production, which seem to be completely at odds with any reasonable understanding of the economy or technology, or commodities or politics or psychology or anything . He painted a picture of a supply curve and a demand curve that are completely independent, such that one day the latter exceeds the former and all hell breaks loose. He predicted that the increase in oil price before 2010 would curtail mass agriculture and air travel, and fundamentally shift the world to a new economic order in a short span of time.

That’s just not how things have ever worked. For decades there have been people working on new methods of obtaining oil, while other people have been working on alternatives for oil in all capacities. As these methods kick in and become cheaper, as the long term increase in oil price continues, oil becomes less favourable and makes up a lower percentage of energy use … over several decades. The demand is moderated by the price.

There was a year where we reached peak guano: synthetic methods of nitrogen fixation became cheaper and more convenient and played an increasing role in fertiliser production. No one gives a shit about the year that peak guano production was reached. People didn’t one day find the guano cupboard was bare and say “I guess I’ll die.”

There have been historic spikes in oil prices (in 1973, in 2008) but they were driven by transitory political and financial conditions. When Campbell’s “The Coming Oil Crisis” came out in 2004, oil was at 50 USD/barrel: that would be 80 USD/barrel allowing for general inflation. Today it is 94 USD/barrel when we are in something of an oil shock because of war-related supply disruption. A year ago it was 62 USD/barrel. Point being: the price goes up and down due to various short term factors but if you look at the smoothed graph there’s been no increase since he published that book above and beyond general inflation.

I think that sensational aspect of Campbell’s work was either dishonest or just plain nuts.

—-

As mentioned above, I think the focus on Campbell’s crankery was unfortunate in that it rather buried the main story: rather than running out of oil, the problem is that if we use all of the oil, it’s going to be hard to live here. The timing of peak oil is probably mainly going to be controlled by political efforts to move away from fossil fuels. If the nations of the world do actually meet their emissions targets then it will probably mean that some 2 trillion barrels of the oil that can feasibly be recovered will remain in the crust in perpetuity.

I see that my old instructor, Argus, was the first to answer in the original thread, and he didn’t cover himself in glory :)

He was a very smart man.

that said coal seems to have hit something of a turning point or doldrum or geopolitical issue and it certainly does seem to coincide with widespread death and heatwaves slash struggle for heating over winters and transportation pain and so forth

deevs, were you also “Manboob Habib”?

sibeen said:

deevs, were you also “Manboob Habib”?

My word yes. Let me dig up the list of my tags.

dv said:

sibeen said:

deevs, were you also “Manboob Habib”?

My word yes. Let me dig up the list of my tags.

That one did ring a bell.

DV, Ned Ryerson, Enrico Pallazzo, West Sayid, Assad Indictment, Marie Internet, Maitabina Taipo, Manboob Habib, IUPAC Shakur, 8 simple rules for dating mitochondria, Pilbarasex, Rome Fiddles While Greg Boils, Oil Can What, old man emo, Everyone Loves Iago, I spell it Cornish Pasty, Sparky Polastri, Roger Kint, Crude London Brent, Froot Loop, New White Froot Loop, pants the hart, faberge sperm, waris simpson, buccal cirri, hearths and mines, macho five mayo six, catherine zettajoules, the Death of Clowns, Ada Lovelace the Byronic woman, Good Willi Henning, HELLO ME NOT DEAD, Boutrolicious, The spiegelman monster, Reimann Reason, Slytherin Idiot, Emo Supremo, petrosexual, roughlyoneandahalfmoreyears, abu being served, abu yusif language, Hugh Dubeity, Liouville Slugger, below Kelly Bushing, gang aglee early, Rybee Naberrie, Generod Naberrie, Sith is Sideous Mum, but apes ARE fish, ordinary person, Sultan Abran, cirque desolee, 1 Cor 14 34_35, Hohmann hosed, U Thant do that on television, Hillsong Hoods, 4_8_15_16_23_42,Pirates of the Carob, Industrial Trite and Tragic, Nicky Faraj

I had to look up 1 Cor 14 34_35.

You’re a brave man.

dv said:

Unless my archives are incomplete, here is the first thread by Peak Oil Man, back in Aug 04.

http://dazvoz.com/sssfarchives/topic1226650.shtm

The basic premise by POM and my response to it (here, as Everyone Loves Iago) is basically the crux of the whole argument that continued over the following 6 years or so. New data came in but it really didn’t shift the discussion much.

Here’s a later Peak Oil thread by Russell, from 2010.

http://dazvoz.com/sssfarchives/4805350.shtm

I think the key to the longevity of this meme is that it pairs a statement that is obviously true (that global oil production will one day reach an overall maximum) with statements that are dubious (peak oil will arrive in 1997/2003/2007 and there will be a critical shock when demand exceeds supply that will end modern agriculture and air transport in a short period etc etc).

I’m not going to say it is the daftest idea that ever infected public consciousness but I was a bit surprised at how seriously it was being treated by journalists.

Apart from the illogic of it, the other troublesome aspect is that it pretends a catastrophe would come because of a lack of oil, whereas the real impending catastrophe could come because there’s just too damned much of it.

The two prongs of the wrongness were that a) peak oil was coming very soon (originally 1997 and then delayed in stages to 2007 by British geologist Colin Campbell) and b) that the effects would be sudden and drastic.

Addressing these two separately:

PEAK OIL TIMING The exact timing of peak oil is of course uncertain and because production is variable there are many “local” peaks, and we won’t know which was the actual historical maximum until decades later, probably. Nonetheless, the basis on which Campbell made his estimates was unsound. He began by fitting a bell curve (the Hubbert curve, named for Marion King Hubbert) to the US oil production graph, then using those parameters to fit a curve to global production. The complexity of global trends, the development of new fields, and improvements in technology all suggested to other authors that there was no real reason to think that global production would follow a similar curve. The whole history of oil exploration and production has been one of staged advancements in location and recovery, with old fields being revitalised by developments and new fields coming on line. Even during the period of “Peak Peak Oil Talk”, huge new fields were found and techniques for extracting tight oil were improved. Campbell estimated that we were around 50% of the way through the ultimate recoverable oil on Earth: more mainstream estimates were more like 30%. Some of Campbell’s followers would suggest that Saudi Arabia was vastly overstating its reserves … but why? The Saudis would get better value by understating them, leading to higher prices. Indeed a conspiracy-minded person might suggest that the reason why some people were pushing P.O. theories in order to drive up oil prices.

A specific number was often repeated, that oil production would never go over 87 million barrels a day. Even certain Green politicians took up this number.

But time wore on and oil production kept rising. 2019 had the highest production so far, at 95 million barrels a day (average for the year). The decline in 2020 and 2021 was because of a decline in demand because of covid, not because of intrinsic supply limitations.

The real nail in the coffin of the Campbell catastrophe was the fact that US oil production came back up, going way past its original peak, meaning that even the original simple model for production in that one country was thrown out. The US is now the world’s biggest oil producing nation.

Will 2019 end up being the all-time global peak? It is possible, but I doubt it. In the thread above I suggested that the likely range from 2025 to 2040 and I think that’s still reasonable. The major impacts on oil production in the last few years have been a virus and a war, and I don’t know what the next few years hold obviously. On the other hand the exact year of the peak oil production is not even a particularly important piece of data, it will ultimately just be a piece of statistical trivia as discussed in the next section.

THE IMPORTANCE OF PEAK OIL

There is genuine uncertainty about the remaining oil resources and the rate at which we can extract them and market conditions etc etc so even though Campbell’s (increasingly delayed) estimates of the timing of peak oil were way earlier than the mainstream I can basically accept that they could have been made by a good faith oddball, like Toscanelli and his inaccurate estimates of the Earth’s circumference that led Columbus astray.

I’m not so generous when it comes to Campbell’s apocalyptic vision of the effects of a peak in oil production, which seem to be completely at odds with any reasonable understanding of the economy or technology, or commodities or politics or psychology or anything . He painted a picture of a supply curve and a demand curve that are completely independent, such that one day the latter exceeds the former and all hell breaks loose. He predicted that the increase in oil price before 2010 would curtail mass agriculture and air travel, and fundamentally shift the world to a new economic order in a short span of time.

That’s just not how things have ever worked. For decades there have been people working on new methods of obtaining oil, while other people have been working on alternatives for oil in all capacities. As these methods kick in and become cheaper, as the long term increase in oil price continues, oil becomes less favourable and makes up a lower percentage of energy use … over several decades. The demand is moderated by the price.

There was a year where we reached peak guano: synthetic methods of nitrogen fixation became cheaper and more convenient and played an increasing role in fertiliser production. No one gives a shit about the year that peak guano production was reached. People didn’t one day find the guano cupboard was bare and say “I guess I’ll die.”

There have been historic spikes in oil prices (in 1973, in 2008) but they were driven by transitory political and financial conditions. When Campbell’s “The Coming Oil Crisis” came out in 2004, oil was at 50 USD/barrel: that would be 80 USD/barrel allowing for general inflation. Today it is 94 USD/barrel when we are in something of an oil shock because of war-related supply disruption. A year ago it was 62 USD/barrel. Point being: the price goes up and down due to various short term factors but if you look at the smoothed graph there’s been no increase since he published that book above and beyond general inflation.

I think that sensational aspect of Campbell’s work was either dishonest or just plain nuts.

—-

As mentioned above, I think the focus on Campbell’s crankery was unfortunate in that it rather buried the main story: rather than running out of oil, the problem is that if we use all of the oil, it’s going to be hard to live here. The timing of peak oil is probably mainly going to be controlled by political efforts to move away from fossil fuels. If the nations of the world do actually meet their emissions targets then it will probably mean that some 2 trillion barrels of the oil that can feasibly be recovered will remain in the crust in perpetuity.

As you say there is plenty of oil out there, but what has changed is the cost of getting it out of the ground. In the early days of oil exploration, one simply drilled a hole and the oil gushed from the ground, now you need to drill much further, often deep into the ocean depths, or spend plenty to process it from shale, where profits are little more than the costs of processing it. All this forces production costs higher with smaller profits to the producers and had it not been for the political influence of Russia and Ukraine profits from shale oil would be marginal. The Middle East still has the most profitable oil fields because it is so easy to extract, but for others profits are less attractive unless we pay more at the pump.

There is a particular peak oil image that I can’t find. It was popular for at least 8 years. Pity. Anyway, here are some peak oil images to reminisce about.

Repeating the Australia peak oil chart.

Remember that the USA chart second rise isn’t for crude oil. Peak oil for US was in 1970. The second peak for tar sand and shale oil – at much higher cost.

The following chart is interesting because is gives the years in which oil production peaked in each country, eg. the year 2000 for Australia.

mollwollfumble said:

how did they Fatten The Curve in 1972, what happened

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

With peak oil in individual countries labelled,

how did they Fatten The Curve in 1972, what happened

Fatten?

1971 was peak oil in the USA. Is that what you’re talking about?

It’s over, moll. The tent has been pulled down, the circus has left town.

dv said:

It’s over, moll. The tent has been pulled down, the circus has left town.

Nostalgia is never over.

I don’t see peak oil happening in the foreseeable future, but I only came to that opinion this year.

Here is why we won’t have peak oil in the foreseeable future.
This is a map of world shale-oil and shale-gas deposits.

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

It’s over, moll. The tent has been pulled down, the circus has left town.

Nostalgia is never over.

I don’t see peak oil happening in the foreseeable future, but I only came to that opinion this year.

Here is why we won’t have peak oil in the foreseeable future.
This is a map of world shale-oil and shale-gas deposits.

They aren’t friendly methods of extraction though

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

It’s over, moll. The tent has been pulled down, the circus has left town.

Nostalgia is never over.

I don’t see peak oil happening in the foreseeable future, but I only came to that opinion this year.

Here is why we won’t have peak oil in the foreseeable future.
This is a map of world shale-oil and shale-gas deposits.

PS. We’ve already had peak conventional oil in at least 18 oil-producing countries.

Cymek said:

They aren’t friendly methods of extraction though

Depends on what you mean by “friendly”. Whether you mean hip-pocket friendly or environmentally friendly.
Shale oil and tar sands are definitely not hip-pocket friendly.
Current tar sands mining is not environmentally friendly. Not at all. (I can expand on that, because the friendliness or otherwise of tar sand mining depends in part on what happened 12,000 years ago).
Some shale oil has the potential to be more environmentally friendly than any other crude oil mining method.

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

With peak oil in individual countries labelled,

how did they Fatten The Curve in 1972, what happened

Fatten?

1971 was peak oil in the USA. Is that what you’re talking about?

on your chart, like COVID-19, there’s seeming exponential growth which then plateaus suddenly

The current Oil Market Report expects global average output this year to top 100 million barrels per day, and to tick up to 101 Mb next year.

World oil supply jumped by 690 kb/d to 99.5 mb/d in June as resilient Russian production and higher output from the US and Canada more than offset steep maintenance-related losses from Kazakhstan. Production is expected to rise by 1.8 mb/d by end-year to reach 101.3 mb/d. Global oil supply is set to average 100.1 mb/d in 2022 before hitting an annual record of 101.1 mb/d in 2023.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2022

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

how did they Fatten The Curve in 1972, what happened

Fatten?

1971 was peak oil in the USA. Is that what you’re talking about?

on your chart, like COVID-19, there’s seeming exponential growth which then plateaus suddenly

Oh that. That would be saturation of the world new car market.

—-

I take it that you all realise that peak oil is desirable, from the point of view of global warming.

mollwollfumble said:

SCIENCE said:

mollwollfumble said:

Fatten?

1971 was peak oil in the USA. Is that what you’re talking about?

on your chart, like COVID-19, there’s seeming exponential growth which then plateaus suddenly

Oh that. That would be saturation of the world new car market.

—-

I take it that you all realise that peak oil is desirable, from the point of view of global warming.

ah so like saturation of PCR testing

funny how these things across fields are analogues