It was pointed out on TV this morning that a lot of people have been saying “just another disaster” with regards to the Pakistan flood. But with more than 1,000 people dead, millions unhomed, and a third of the country affected, this is more than your run-of-the-mill disaster. The government is asking for international aid, as well it might.

Was this overstated? Or understated?

“monsoon rains have killed at least 1,136 people”. This death toll has not occurred all at once, a single 24 hours may have seen the death of perhaps one tenth of that.

The Pakistan flood in 2010 may have been worse, with 1,985 deaths. But the region affected in the 2010 floods was less, a smaller flood peak and “only” one fifth of the country affected.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/pakistan-floods-death-toll-crosses-1000-uae-turkey-iran-qatar-and-uk-extend-support

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2022-000254-pak

Floods have destroyed 3,451.5 kilometres of road, swept away 147 bridges, destroyed 170 shops, 95,350 houses destroyed and 224,100 more houses damaged.

Compare with the Pakistan flood in 2010 show below, where a smaller area was affected.

It is nasty.

mollwollfumble said:

It was pointed out on TV this morning that a lot of people have been saying “just another disaster” with regards to the Pakistan flood. But with more than 1,000 people dead, millions unhomed, and a third of the country affected, this is more than your run-of-the-mill disaster. The government is asking for international aid, as well it might.

Was this overstated? Or understated?

“monsoon rains have killed at least 1,136 people”. This death toll has not occurred all at once, a single 24 hours may have seen the death of perhaps one tenth of that.

The Pakistan flood in 2010 may have been worse, with 1,985 deaths. But the region affected in the 2010 floods was less, a smaller flood peak and “only” one fifth of the country affected.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/pakistan-floods-death-toll-crosses-1000-uae-turkey-iran-qatar-and-uk-extend-support

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2022-000254-pak

Floods have destroyed 3,451.5 kilometres of road, swept away 147 bridges, destroyed 170 shops, 95,350 houses destroyed and 224,100 more houses damaged.

Compare with the Pakistan flood in 2010 show below, where a smaller area was affected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

mollwollfumble said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

and they should be used to it by now?

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

and they should be used to it by now?

Presumably the message is that if you are looking for events that have not happened before in recorded history, or were very rare in the past, then this isn’t one of those.

OTOH, if you are looking for disastrous events that have occurred regularly in the past, and will be expected to be much more frequent in the future, this looks like a good example.

The Rev Dodgson said:

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

and they should be used to it by now?

Presumably the message is that if you are looking for events that have not happened before in recorded history, or were very rare in the past, then this isn’t one of those.

OTOH, if you are looking for disastrous events that have occurred regularly in the past, and will be expected to be much more frequent in the future, this looks like a good example.

Yes.

I imagine high population density combined with poor quality housing contributes significantly to the number of dead

The problem with Pakistan as with all of these countries is they spend all of their money on weapons instead of making any provision for the disasters that WILL come. They want international aid because they spend on weapons and refuse to take into account the needs of their people.

wookiemeister said:

The problem with Pakistan as with all of these countries is they spend all of their money on weapons instead of making any provision for the disasters that WILL come. They want international aid because they spend on weapons and refuse to take into account the needs of their people.

Somewhat true, they are also poor, had a quick look

Population 220 million GDP 263 billion (2020)

Population 25.7 million GDP 1.33 trillion (2020)

They need to stop spending money on weapons

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

and they should be used to it by now?

So these specific floods aren’t caused by climate change. Which is being claimed by newspapers and wikipedia.
Wikipedia should know better.

mollwollfumble said:

roughbarked said:

mollwollfumble said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods

There have been deadlier floods in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region before, and in relatively recent times. Notably:

Death_toll, Place, Year
5748, Northern India, 2013
>5000, Rajputana India, 1943
4892, Rajasthan India, 1968
3838, India & Bangladesh, 1998
3800, Northern India, 1978
3084, Nepal India Pakistan & Bangladesh, 1993
3076, India & Bangladesh, 2004
2910, Pakistan, 1950
2379, Bangladesh, 1998
>2000, Morvi dam burst in Gujarat India, 1979
1834, Pakistan & Northern India, 1998
1700, Northern India, 1955
>1600, Pakistan, 2010
1503, Mumbai India, 2005

1136, Pakistan, 2022 (so far)

>1000, India, 2016

and they should be used to it by now?

So these specific floods aren’t caused by climate change. Which is being claimed by newspapers and wikipedia.
Wikipedia should know better.

… and people who like to point out that specific events were not “caused” by climate change, as though that was a reason not to be concerned about climate change, should know better as well.

Have the floods there really covered one third of the place?

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

roughbarked said:

and they should be used to it by now?

So these specific floods aren’t caused by climate change. Which is being claimed by newspapers and wikipedia.
Wikipedia should know better.

… and people who like to point out that specific events were not “caused” by climate change, as though that was a reason not to be concerned about climate change, should know better as well.

It’s the climate even if its not climate change and I imagine the change won’t be for the better

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have the floods there really covered one third of the place?

The Internet says:
Due to the unusual weather, flood waters overran many parts of Pakistan. Flood waters covered at least 37,280 square kilometers (14,390 square miles) of the country at some time or another between July 28 and September 16, 2010. (Not all areas were inundated at the same time or for the whole time.)

… and the area is 881,900 km2, so a bit over 4% in total.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have the floods there really covered one third of the place?

The Internet says:
Due to the unusual weather, flood waters overran many parts of Pakistan. Flood waters covered at least 37,280 square kilometers (14,390 square miles) of the country at some time or another between July 28 and September 16, 2010. (Not all areas were inundated at the same time or for the whole time.)

… and the area is 881,900 km2, so a bit over 4% in total.

and perhaps I should read stuff properly before posting. That was 2010.

The Rev Dodgson said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Have the floods there really covered one third of the place?

The Internet says:
Due to the unusual weather, flood waters overran many parts of Pakistan. Flood waters covered at least 37,280 square kilometers (14,390 square miles) of the country at some time or another between July 28 and September 16, 2010. (Not all areas were inundated at the same time or for the whole time.)

… and the area is 881,900 km2, so a bit over 4% in total.

and perhaps I should read stuff properly before posting. That was 2010.

From the map on Wikipedia, 1/3 does not look unreasonable.

>>From the beginning of the month, the rainfall was nine times higher than average in Sindh province and five times higher across the whole of Pakistan. Basic physics is the reason rainfall is becoming intense around the world – warmer air holds more moisture.

Scientists are already trying to determine the extent to which global heating is to blame for the rainfall and floods. But analysis of the previous worst flood in 2010 suggests it will be significant. That “superflood” was made more likely by global heating, which drove fiercer rains.

Warmer oceans and heating in the Arctic were implicated in the 2010 superflood, one study found, as these factors affected the jet stream, a high-level wind that circles the planet. The greater meandering of the jet stream led to both the prolonged rain in Pakistan and an extreme heatwave in Russia that year.

And according to a 2021 study global heating is making the south Asian monsoon more intense and more erratic, with each 1C rise in global temperature leading to 5% more rain.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/monster-monsoon-why-the-floods-in-pakistan-are-so-devastating

Pakistan has suffered regular flooding since 2010, as well as heatwaves and wildfires. “Climate change is really affecting us,” said Saeed. “It has become a norm now that every year we kind of face extreme events.”