Lots of speculation over the “Who” but none of the proffered theories and speculation really fit.

But an interesting theory has come to light – laying the blame on incompetence rather than malice.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

I suspect someone in the Russian government pinged Gazprom, and said, “The EU is about to have a cold winter. make sure those pipelines sodding well work, so we can sell someone natural gas at massively increased prices.”

So, Somebody In Charge started running checks — and came up with hydrate slurry in both pipelines. After the running in circles, hyperventilating, and shrieking of curse-words stopped, somebody started trying to remediate both lines. Of course they didn’t tell folks down stream — no Russian want to look weak, and besides, there’s been a nasty uptick in failed Russian oligarchs getting accidentally defenestrated — they just unilaterally tried to Fix Things.

The Fixing of Things went bad. One went Paws Up, and they started trying to stop the other — but pressurisation (both ways) is a weeks-long process, and the second went bad, too.

The post goes into detail about what needed to be fixed, ( Hydrate Plug ) how it should be fixed, (Very slowly and Very carefully) and what can happen if it doesn’t get fixed properly (Boom). It’s an interesting read and the poster seems pretty confident that what happened was inevitable and not just bad luck on the day.

ah just like the laboratory leakage

Seems plausible, DO.

That was one of my hypotheses: Russian mismanagement.

The usual story with them: there’s a proper, safe, and sensible way to fix the problem. Or you can just go at it like a bull at a gate, threaten and terrorise the people below you to ignore all of the procedures and safety factors, and make them go at top speed to crack the eggshell with a sledgehammer.

Is this not what happened with Chernobyl?

Is this not what happened with the Nedelin rocket explosion?

captain_spalding said:

That was one of my hypotheses: Russian mismanagement.

The usual story with them: there’s a proper, safe, and sensible way to fix the problem. Or you can just go at it like a bull at a gate, threaten and terrorise the people below you to ignore all of the procedures and safety factors, and make them go at top speed to crack the eggshell with a sledgehammer.

Is this not what happened with Chernobyl?

Is this not what happened with the Nedelin rocket explosion?

Indeed it is the Russian way.
The biggest country must have the biggest biceps.

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

That was one of my hypotheses: Russian mismanagement.

The usual story with them: there’s a proper, safe, and sensible way to fix the problem. Or you can just go at it like a bull at a gate, threaten and terrorise the people below you to ignore all of the procedures and safety factors, and make them go at top speed to crack the eggshell with a sledgehammer.

Is this not what happened with Chernobyl?

Is this not what happened with the Nedelin rocket explosion?

Indeed it is the Russian way.
The biggest country must have the biggest biceps.

No-one gets sent to the gulag for obeying orders.

If you’re told to get your battalion across a river, and there’s no bridges or boats available, you make them try to swim across. You don’t raise objections about having no boats or bridges.

Doesn’t matter if 90% of them drown. Your orders were to get them across, and you did your best to obey.

There’ll be no repercussions, because it would reflect badly on those who gave the order for not thinking about whether the crossing was possible, or needed equipment.

So… good old fashioned incompetence, hey?

The seismology suggests sharp, impulsive explosions, equivalent to approximately 1 tonne of TNT

dv said:

Déjà vu

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-poland-through-new-baltic-pipe-pipeline-2022-10-01/

A new gas pipeline from Norway to Poland began operating on the day after the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas leakage issues.

I did not know this previously.
My opinion on Nordstream issues has now changed, in light of this information.

I think Russia deliberately blew up both of their own pipelines. They have switched mentality regarding their own pipelines to something like jilted lover behaviour. They know they can’t win Europe back so they are acting out of spite.

Secondly it is a clear warning to Poland and other countries that Russia can blow up their new pipelines just as easily, so don’t get too comfortable thinking that you have a secure non-Russian supply of gas. The pipelines do cross over each other in the Baltic, not too far away from where the Nordstream 2 suffered damage.

Thirdly, they are going to push hard on the propaganda that the USA did it, in order to try and fracture NATO’s resolve.

I think Russia have given up on ever using the pipelines for their intended purpose of being the major supplier of gas to Europe. They are now trying to squeeze whatever political purposes they can out of it. It is a stranded asset now, so blowing it up might be worth more than the ongoing upkeep of it.

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

dv said:

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

They’re just trying to get back at South West Manchuria¡

dv said:

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

yes… but winter is still coming .. etc

It is going to be a bit of a tough winter in the EU. They are already talking about having no public Christmas decorations to save electricity.

party_pants said:

dv said:

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

yes… but winter is still coming .. etc

It is going to be a bit of a tough winter in the EU. They are already talking about having no public Christmas decorations to save electricity.

Do they really think winter is going to be easier for the Russian troops than the Ukrainians? The latter have better supply lines. It’s going to be a dire Christmas for those conscripts.

these archaic traditions are inappropriate for an advanced scientific civilisation anyway

wait

dv said:

party_pants said:

dv said:

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

yes… but winter is still coming .. etc

It is going to be a bit of a tough winter in the EU. They are already talking about having no public Christmas decorations to save electricity.

Do they really think winter is going to be easier for the Russian troops than the Ukrainians? The latter have better supply lines. It’s going to be a dire Christmas for those conscripts.

I have doubts that the Russians are able to adequately supply all of their troops with the necessities for survival in a Ukrainian/Russian winter.

Whereas, not all that long ago, the Russian army would have been the world’s experts at cold-weather campaigning (sleeping in the snow was pretty much standard training), i suspect that standards have slipped considerably.

Putin launched his attack in February. It was supposed to be over in three days, a week at the outside. Even allowing for double, or triple, that time, they’d still have had months of improving weather in which to consolidate their control over Ukraine.

By the time this coming winter was here, the Ukrainian forces should have been dissolved, and the Russian occupying forces comfortably ensconced in the vacated barracks.

Now the Russians find themselves in the same situation as the Germans in 1941. Their lightning campaign has stalled, and a winter war they never thought they’d never have to prepare for is knocking on the door.

If things get bad enough, we just might see Russian conscripts voting with their feet.

captain_spalding said:

dv said:

party_pants said:

yes… but winter is still coming .. etc

It is going to be a bit of a tough winter in the EU. They are already talking about having no public Christmas decorations to save electricity.

Do they really think winter is going to be easier for the Russian troops than the Ukrainians? The latter have better supply lines. It’s going to be a dire Christmas for those conscripts.

I have doubts that the Russians are able to adequately supply all of their troops with the necessities for survival in a Ukrainian/Russian winter.

Whereas, not all that long ago, the Russian army would have been the world’s experts at cold-weather campaigning (sleeping in the snow was pretty much standard training), i suspect that standards have slipped considerably.

Putin launched his attack in February. It was supposed to be over in three days, a week at the outside. Even allowing for double, or triple, that time, they’d still have had months of improving weather in which to consolidate their control over Ukraine.

By the time this coming winter was here, the Ukrainian forces should have been dissolved, and the Russian occupying forces comfortably ensconced in the vacated barracks.

Now the Russians find themselves in the same situation as the Germans in 1941. Their lightning campaign has stalled, and a winter war they never thought they’d never have to prepare for is knocking on the door.

If things get bad enough, we just might see Russian conscripts voting with their feet.

We can hope for that outcome.

SCIENCE said:

these archaic traditions are inappropriate for an advanced scientific civilisation anyway

wait

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/harry-potter-dungeons-dragons-satanic-panic-america-australia/101483054

SCIENCE said:

SCIENCE said:

these archaic traditions are inappropriate for an advanced scientific civilisation anyway

wait

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/harry-potter-dungeons-dragons-satanic-panic-america-australia/101483054

Yeah, and ouija boards are The Devil’s telephone.

New blog post, containing some more support evidence for the “Incompetence” angle:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

Dark Orange said:

New blog post, containing some more support evidence for the “Incompetence” angle:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

The seismology suggests a significant amount of explosive was set off

wookiemeister said:

Dark Orange said:

New blog post, containing some more support evidence for the “Incompetence” angle:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

The seismology suggests a significant amount of explosive was set off

Two separate pipes going off at more or less at the same time…..

Damn there’s that Russian disinformation coming out of me again.

Even the news reports say sabotage. And given how vehemently biased anti-Russian our news reports are, that’s really something.

Add another billion dollars or so in oil revenue to the amount of money stolen from Russia by the USA.

dv said:

party_pants said:

dv said:

I have to say, Russia has done an absolutely shit job of fracturing NATO.

yes… but winter is still coming .. etc

It is going to be a bit of a tough winter in the EU. They are already talking about having no public Christmas decorations to save electricity.

Do they really think winter is going to be easier for the Russian troops than the Ukrainians? The latter have better supply lines. It’s going to be a dire Christmas for those conscripts.

I think the point here was that winter is coming for the European people as a whole and in absence of Russian gas it’s going to be cold and/or expensive for a lot for a lot of people.

Sweden’ Security Service SÄPO and prosecutors announced they’ve found more evidence supporting the claim that explosives were used to blow up Nord Stream.

Sweden is investigating criminal sabotage in its Economic Exclusive Zone.

Russia is displeased with not being given access.

Dark Orange said:

Sweden’ Security Service SÄPO and prosecutors announced they’ve found more evidence supporting the claim that explosives were used to blow up Nord Stream.

Sweden is investigating criminal sabotage in its Economic Exclusive Zone.

Russia is displeased with not being given access.

I suspect that Russia has already ‘had access’.

captain_spalding said:

Dark Orange said:

Sweden’ Security Service SÄPO and prosecutors announced they’ve found more evidence supporting the claim that explosives were used to blow up Nord Stream.

Sweden is investigating criminal sabotage in its Economic Exclusive Zone.

Russia is displeased with not being given access.

I suspect that Russia has already ‘had access’.

remember when they accessed MH17, now that was quite the claim

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/forsta-bilderna-fran-sprangda-gasroret-pa-ostersjons-botten/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/18/gross-sabotage-traces-of-explosives-found-at-sites-of-nord-stream-gas-leaks

“Analysis that has now been carried out shows traces of explosives on several of the objects that were recovered” from the scene in the Baltic Sea, Mats Ljungqvist, the prosecutor leading the investigation, said on Friday.

…

A 50-metre section was missing from Nord Stream 1

A 50-metre section was missing from Nord Stream 1

That’s a big amount of damage. They were not mucking around, whoever did it.

party_pants said:

A 50-metre section was missing from Nord Stream 1

That’s a big amount of damage. They were not mucking around, whoever did it.

We know who did it and why. We just don’t yet have the proof.