So the first stage had the initial invasion and the plucky Ukrainians taking the punishment dished out by the Russians.
The Second stage saw the Ukrainians get their shit together and force the second largest military in the world back, regaining a lot of ground.
And now we have stage 3, where the Russians have formed a defensive line and will dig in for the winter. Will that line line hold over the winter? Will the Ukes take advantage of winter to further use the Himars to their advantage, or will Iranian cruise missiles turn the rest of Ukraine into 3’rd world?
Here is an interesting view of what’s happening:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1587726245160271873
I believe that Russians have selected this orange area as their long-term defense line, evicting civilians from their homes and use them for Russian occupational troops. That accomplish several aims.
The defense line is more tenable then the current one. All positions West of the Dnipro River are under constant pressure and Russia cannot sustain the supply lines over the rivers in that sector. Having the defense line on the Eastern bank simplifies the situation.
Besides the obvious that the river poses a natural barrier, when blowing up the dam at Nova Kakhovka the already big obstacle becomes an even more daunting obstacle. Russian troops could focus the defense along a smaller front line, making use of their weak but many troops.
Using house of evicted/deported people could partially solve their bad situation in terms of outdoor gear. Instead of faulty tents, barns or even pigsties, Russian troops have a solid roof, while distributing them makes it harder for Ukrainian artillery.
As governor Vitaly Kim pointed out, putting troops from all over Russia in this area are supposed to be an incentive in terms of “fighting for your home”. The plan is move those invaders there, permanently, which delivers them better living conditions.
Overall the strategy follows the same pattern of all colonial forces: Removing the inhabitants by force or kill them. Replace the void with invaders and make them hold the frontline. All of that aspects are criteria of genocide. In Luhansk and Donetsk already happening.
Last but not least, the whole Russian strategy is to exhaust Ukraine and Western backers. Putin hopes that if he can hold the line long enough that appeasers in the West might take hold of the situation, looking for “peace”.