You folks are so fascinating it makes it hard for me to do things some days.

Go raibh maith agat for the laughs.

Some of you were having a discussion about a coming war in China and I wondered if you had seen this movie and how that tracks with your current thinking?

I am not going to have time to go back and engage in that discussion now. So I thought I would put this here. It might not interest anyone, but you never know.

This is a film by John Piliger

The Coming War on China

how convenient that these communist film makers cast it as one cuntry warring upon another when we all know that it’s them others who are to blame so at best it’s war with

I’ll pass on this one :)

Pilger is fanatically anti-Western and a good friend of Russia and China.

Bubblecar said:

I’ll pass on this one :)

Pilger is fanatically anti-Western and a good friend of Russia and China.

I don’t think he is, but he does see a different USA and the Western Aliance than most people in the west do. I am not a fan of Russia or China, but I wonder how we would think if the situation was reversed, and China had done all the things the USA has done., I think we would be rightly horrified and consider them to be unbearably domineering and repressive. Russia IMO has a similar attitude to the world as was common a couple of hundred years ago.

>I’ll pass on this one :)

Um, not meaning that I’ll pass it on, but that I won’t bother with it. Even other lefties like George Monbiot think Pilger is full of it:

We must confront Russian propaganda – even when it comes from those we respect

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/02/russian-propaganda-anti-imperialist-left-vladimir-putin

Victim Putin is surrounded by the evil West in the bizarre world of John Pilger

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/03/vladimir-putin-john-pilger-ukraine-war/

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

party_pants said:

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

PermeateFree said:

Russia IMO has a similar attitude to the world as was common a couple of hundred years ago.

Perhaps. We can only hope that, one of these days, Russia stops living in the 18th century.

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

I am part of “the west”. So “we” in this case refers to me and anyone else who is also part of it.

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

I suggest that “we” is those of us who look at the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China, and hope for something better.

party_pants said:

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

I am part of “the west”. So “we” in this case refers to me and anyone else who is also part of it.

so best for 20% of the world population, but it’s a world order so how’s it going for the rest

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

party_pants said:

The post-WW2 west, and the United States in particular, are far from perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. A vast improvement over colonialism and the empire world order that preceded it. We still have a long way to go to make the current order work better.

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

I suggest that “we” is those of us who look at the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China, and hope for something better.

but the other 90% of Russia and the other 99.9% of CHINA are indeed better

SCIENCE said:

but the other 90% of Russia and the other 99.9% of CHINA are indeed better

That makes no sense at all, although i’m hardly surprised.

Would you care to elaborate (by which i mean expound more detail than expressing a few very obscure slogan-like phrases)?

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

depends on who the “we(¿, ¿, ¿)” refer to eh

I suggest that “we” is those of us who look at the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China, and hope for something better.

but the other 90% of Russia and the other 99.9% of CHINA are indeed better

That makes no sense at all, although i’m hardly surprised.

Would you care to elaborate (by which i mean expound more detail than expressing a few very obscure slogan-like phrases)?

sorry it makes perfect sense, you say you hope for something better than {the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China}, and we point out to you that {the other 90% of Russia (which isn’t drunken criminal plutocracy) and the other 99.9% of CHINA (which isn’t authoritarian mind-control labour camp)} are certainly better, so we agree

But China re more or less done now. We have reached peak China. They will enter a “lost decade” for most of the 2020s.

Their demographics are fucked, so their labour costs are rising. They are no longer to go to place for setting up new manufacturing with a young and cheap labour force. Other countries are taking their place. The are also becoming a higher risk country to do business with, in terms of government policy, technology and IP theft, censorship, poor governance, corruption and all the rest of it. They have no functioning banking system and capital markets like most other advanced countries do, so they have a huge real estate market that for many years was seen as the only safe investment in China. However, that is a bit of a bubble economy, local governments rely on selling (leasing) land to raise revenue, and the whole sector is burdened with huge amounts of debt. It ain’t sustainable, especially in a country of shrinking population.

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

but the other 90% of Russia and the other 99.9% of CHINA are indeed better

That makes no sense at all, although i’m hardly surprised.

Would you care to elaborate (by which i mean expound more detail than expressing a few very obscure slogan-like phrases)?

sorry it makes perfect sense, you say you hope for something better than {the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China}, and we point out to you that {the other 90% of Russia (which isn’t drunken criminal plutocracy) and the other 99.9% of CHINA (which isn’t authoritarian mind-control labour camp)} are certainly better, so we agree

Better than what, exactly?

Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?

I agree, they’re probably materially better off than they were under previous iterations of the regimes that prevailed in those countries, but are they better off than their western counterparts, or better off than they might be under more liberal, and, as far as is possible, democratic regimes in their own countries?

As has already been admitted, the western liberal societies have a long way to go to approach anything like perfection, but if you’re suggesting that Russian/Chinese societies are not only comparable but better, then some further explanation is needed.

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

I think that by ‘flashpoint’. you mean ‘pretext’.

In the absence of any Austrian archdukes to shoot.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

Hypersonic missiles take down critical infrastructure.

The chinese have faster missiles than Russia

A few months after the taps and sockets stop working in Australia you’d have a few million dead or dying of disease, starvation, racial/ religious/ tribal conflict. There are no more ships that deliver stuff to Australia.

There’s no more fuel for the warships or jet fighters

The chinese land in the north and take control of the mines – those that resist get shot. No more money for the “communities”. The cities are effectively abandoned after perhaps 6 months Australia has around 500,000 people left.

And China will release the real virus this time not the test run one.

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

Hypersonic missiles take down critical infrastructure.

The chinese have faster missiles than Russia

A few months after the taps and sockets stop working in Australia you’d have a few million dead or dying of disease, starvation, racial/ religious/ tribal conflict. There are no more ships that deliver stuff to Australia.

There’s no more fuel for the warships or jet fighters

The chinese land in the north and take control of the mines – those that resist get shot. No more money for the “communities”. The cities are effectively abandoned after perhaps 6 months Australia has around 500,000 people left.

And Australia’s mistake was made where in this scenario?

By being located between 10 deg S and 40 deg, and 11 deg E and 155 deg E?

How silly of us.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

Hypersonic missiles take down critical infrastructure.

The chinese have faster missiles than Russia

A few months after the taps and sockets stop working in Australia you’d have a few million dead or dying of disease, starvation, racial/ religious/ tribal conflict. There are no more ships that deliver stuff to Australia.

There’s no more fuel for the warships or jet fighters

The chinese land in the north and take control of the mines – those that resist get shot. No more money for the “communities”. The cities are effectively abandoned after perhaps 6 months Australia has around 500,000 people left.

And Australia’s mistake was made where in this scenario?

By being located between 10 deg S and 40 deg, and 11 deg E and 155 deg E?

How silly of us.

Poor typing there.

10 deg S/40deg S and 110 deg E/155 Deg E.

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

I think that by ‘flashpoint’. you mean ‘pretext’.

In the absence of any Austrian archdukes to shoot.

The war will start with some Chinese action which provoke a response from Taiwan, like shooting down a plane or spy balloon or something.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

I hope there’s no war with China – it’s the last mistake Australia will ever make.

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

The chinese can bide their time

Most likely they’ll start supplying Russia in a more open way.

Imagine roving artillery batteries of around 1000 firing a round each pummelling everything in its way.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

The flashpoint will be Taiwan. We have known this for decades now.

I think that by ‘flashpoint’. you mean ‘pretext’.

In the absence of any Austrian archdukes to shoot.

The war will start with some Chinese action which provoke a response from Taiwan, like shooting down a plane or spy balloon or something.

And we just don’t know what President Trump’s response will be.

Peak Warming Man said:

And China will release the real virus this time not the test run one.

My theory

We’ve been hit with deliberately released virus for decades

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

1. It’s not likely that the start of / avoidance of a war against/with China will be a matter which is dependent on a decision by Australia.

2. The consequences for Australia would be largely dependent on whether China wins or loses. If you have any reliable word from the trainer on how that horse is likely to run, you might like to pass it on to us

Hypersonic missiles take down critical infrastructure.

The chinese have faster missiles than Russia

A few months after the taps and sockets stop working in Australia you’d have a few million dead or dying of disease, starvation, racial/ religious/ tribal conflict. There are no more ships that deliver stuff to Australia.

There’s no more fuel for the warships or jet fighters

The chinese land in the north and take control of the mines – those that resist get shot. No more money for the “communities”. The cities are effectively abandoned after perhaps 6 months Australia has around 500,000 people left.

And Australia’s mistake was made where in this scenario?

By being located between 10 deg S and 40 deg, and 11 deg E and 155 deg E?

How silly of us.

Our mistake was buying into a war we won’t win

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

That makes no sense at all, although i’m hardly surprised.

Would you care to elaborate (by which i mean expound more detail than expressing a few very obscure slogan-like phrases)?

sorry it makes perfect sense, you say you hope for something better than {the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China}, and we point out to you that {the other 90% of Russia (which isn’t drunken criminal plutocracy) and the other 99.9% of CHINA (which isn’t authoritarian mind-control labour camp)} are certainly better, so we agree

Better than what, exactly?

Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?

I agree, they’re probably materially better off than they were under previous iterations of the regimes that prevailed in those countries, but are they better off than their western counterparts, or better off than they might be under more liberal, and, as far as is possible, democratic regimes in their own countries?

As has already been admitted, the western liberal societies have a long way to go to approach anything like perfection, but if you’re suggesting that Russian/Chinese societies are not only comparable but better, then some further explanation is needed.

Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies and those of other nonwestern cuntries, imagine as an extreme example the spread of western religions that elevate Western Man above all others, but it’sn’t SCIENCE so you should just pull your head in and accept God’s word.

Sure, we* have it good in Australia. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the others either.

*: many of us

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

sorry it makes perfect sense, you say you hope for something better than {the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China}, and we point out to you that {the other 90% of Russia (which isn’t drunken criminal plutocracy) and the other 99.9% of CHINA (which isn’t authoritarian mind-control labour camp)} are certainly better, so we agree

Better than what, exactly?

Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?

I agree, they’re probably materially better off than they were under previous iterations of the regimes that prevailed in those countries, but are they better off than their western counterparts, or better off than they might be under more liberal, and, as far as is possible, democratic regimes in their own countries?

As has already been admitted, the western liberal societies have a long way to go to approach anything like perfection, but if you’re suggesting that Russian/Chinese societies are not only comparable but better, then some further explanation is needed.

Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies and those of other nonwestern cuntries, imagine as an extreme example the spread of western religions that elevate Western Man above all others, but it’sn’t SCIENCE so you should just pull your head in and accept God’s word.

Sure, we* have it good in Australia. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the others either.

*: many of us

Don’t worry

Soon there won’t be all that patriarchal white man rule in Australia, we’ll be exactly like every basketcase country

People have NO idea how lucky we are here and how easy it is to fuck things up

wookiemeister said:

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

Better than what, exactly?

Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?

I agree, they’re probably materially better off than they were under previous iterations of the regimes that prevailed in those countries, but are they better off than their western counterparts, or better off than they might be under more liberal, and, as far as is possible, democratic regimes in their own countries?

As has already been admitted, the western liberal societies have a long way to go to approach anything like perfection, but if you’re suggesting that Russian/Chinese societies are not only comparable but better, then some further explanation is needed.

Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies and those of other nonwestern cuntries, imagine as an extreme example the spread of western religions that elevate Western Man above all others, but it’sn’t SCIENCE so you should just pull your head in and accept God’s word.

Sure, we* have it good in Australia. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the others either.

*: many of us

Don’t worry

Soon there won’t be all that patriarchal white man rule in Australia, we’ll be exactly like every basketcase country

People have NO idea how lucky we are here and how easy it is to fuck things up

All we need is a Prime Minister like Benjamin Netanyahu.

Peak Warming Man said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

I think that by ‘flashpoint’. you mean ‘pretext’.

In the absence of any Austrian archdukes to shoot.

The war will start with some Chinese action which provoke a response from Taiwan, like shooting down a plane or spy balloon or something.

And we just don’t know what President Trump’s response will be.

sorry, we don’t understand, if violent oligarchies shouldn’t fuck Ukraine just because some renegade eastern region wants to declare independence, why should violent oligarchies fuck CHINA just because some renegade eastern region wants to declare independence

PermeateFree said:

wookiemeister said:

SCIENCE said:

Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies and those of other nonwestern cuntries, imagine as an extreme example the spread of western religions that elevate Western Man above all others, but it’sn’t SCIENCE so you should just pull your head in and accept God’s word.

Sure, we* have it good in Australia. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the others either.

*: many of us

Don’t worry

Soon there won’t be all that patriarchal white man rule in Australia, we’ll be exactly like every basketcase country

People have NO idea how lucky we are here and how easy it is to fuck things up

All we need is a Prime Minister like Benjamin Netanyahu.

if only the savages in Australia had a benevolent civilising influence

Seems as though India is winning the coming war

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

SCIENCE said:

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

sorry it makes perfect sense, you say you hope for something better than {the drunken criminal plutocracy that is Russia, and the authoritarian mind-control labour camp that is China}, and we point out to you that {the other 90% of Russia (which isn’t drunken criminal plutocracy) and the other 99.9% of CHINA (which isn’t authoritarian mind-control labour camp)} are certainly better, so we agree

Better than what, exactly?

Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?

I agree, they’re probably materially better off than they were under previous iterations of the regimes that prevailed in those countries, but are they better off than their western counterparts, or better off than they might be under more liberal, and, as far as is possible, democratic regimes in their own countries?

As has already been admitted, the western liberal societies have a long way to go to approach anything like perfection, but if you’re suggesting that Russian/Chinese societies are not only comparable but better, then some further explanation is needed.

Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies and those of other nonwestern cuntries, imagine as an extreme example the spread of western religions that elevate Western Man above all others, but it’sn’t SCIENCE so you should just pull your head in and accept God’s word.

Sure, we* have it good in Australia. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the others either.

*: many of us

how did you know our middle name

Ah, good morning.

I was sorry to miss your response in our discussion over east/west systems last night, but i’d signed off from the forum shortly before.

I note that you stated that it’s ‘Better to have their societies their way than to have western imperialism dictating their societies…’

While this evades the question that i put to you (‘Better than what, exactly? Are you able to provide examples of how the majority of the populations under those regimes are better off than populations of more liberal western societies?’), i realise that your style of comment on some matters is not always what might be called ‘evidence-based’.

But…the remark that it’s ‘Better to have their societies their way…’ raises other queries.

Given that both Russia and China are one-party states, whether they admit that or maintain pretence to be otherwise, and that all or most of their populations have little to no memory of it having ever been otherwise, and that the one ruling party will permit no other government or policies, the question is: just whose way is it?

It would seem to be ‘the way’ that the ruling party finds most comfortable. What the voting population actually thinks of it does not figure, and will possibly never be known.

In what we call the ‘western democracies’, the voters have at least some minimal choice as to who forms their government. While the differences between the parties may not be awfully radical, there is at least the option for voters to say ‘this mob haven’t done terribly well, let’s see if the other lot can do better’.

In Russia and China, that option is not available. They will have the same government, no matter how many elections are run.

So, given that their governments and their policies and practices are unchanging, and that the governments of more liberal Western countries can change to at least some extent (which may then change the fortunes of those Western countries), the question of whether or not Russians and Chinese are/are not, by comparison, better off than the Westerners is actually decided by Western voters.

Aye. At the very least China’s political system can upgrade to a Singapore style democracy where the people at least have the option to instigate change at the ballot box if they feel their government is becoming incompetent even if that like Singapore that change may not happen any time soon.

I like this construction method they use in China. Looks like mass produced standardised segments, laid from pier to pier by a special machine.

YouTube Link

(sorry about the crappy piano music, you can mute that if you like)

Wonder if something like this works out to be cheaper and faster than conventional construction. Any HSR route is going have a lot of bridges and tunnels.

Don’t know if it’s still the case, but Richard Clayderman’s biggest CD sales figures were in China. He was hugely popular there, even if most Western ears tired of his tinklings rather quickly.

shrug we’re up and down all kinds of times whatever

You’re correct that a lot of it hinges on what one may consider “better”, but that’s worth examining even aside from the EW distinction.

Do we mean better in the way that

• thousands of millions of people are happily living out their lives
• they have as many children as they choose to have
• their Economy is Must Growing and poverty is low and quality of life is good and improving
• they have stable housing and good education
• their life expectancy is long

¿

We mean, there’s talk about evidence, so carry on.

What about the concept that governance should be run by a group of officials chosen by populist vote, rather than for example how groceries are run by a group of traders not chosen by populist vote¿

What about, in the most simplistic* formulation, how some people say it’s better to be able to change the nominal representatives once every few years, and some people say that in other places governments and their policies and practices are unchanging. Are there matters of national governance that require attention and investment over longer timeframes than N election cycles, where N is a characteristic “typical” number of cycles¿

If these matters are dealt with by bureaucracies independent of nominal representatives, then are bureaucracies incapable of dealing with governance matters in the absence of nomination of representatives¿

*: yes, meaning “treating complex issues and problems as if they were much simpler than they really are” with the implication that it may be “oversimplified” so everyone is invited to avoid drygrass hominidism

the good news about this is

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-13/xi-jinping-china-military-li-qiang-new-premier/102087558

as everyone knows, walls can’t attack

wait

FUCK