Despite limitations on free speech that haven’t ben seen since Soviet times, “there is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

The MoD pointed to the appearance of opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin on Russian TV this week, in which he called for a new president to be elected in 2024, in order to rebuild normal relations with Europe.

The ministry said:

“Nadezhdin has been a vocal critic of the war since the invasion, but this is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-three-killed-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-fresh-overnight-strikes?page=with:block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7#block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7

dv said:

Despite limitations on free speech that haven’t ben seen since Soviet times, “there is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

The MoD pointed to the appearance of opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin on Russian TV this week, in which he called for a new president to be elected in 2024, in order to rebuild normal relations with Europe.

The ministry said:

“Nadezhdin has been a vocal critic of the war since the invasion, but this is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-three-killed-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-fresh-overnight-strikes?page=with:block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7#block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7

He’s stepping out. Wodner how long he’ll live for.

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Despite limitations on free speech that haven’t ben seen since Soviet times, “there is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

The MoD pointed to the appearance of opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin on Russian TV this week, in which he called for a new president to be elected in 2024, in order to rebuild normal relations with Europe.

The ministry said:

“Nadezhdin has been a vocal critic of the war since the invasion, but this is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-three-killed-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-fresh-overnight-strikes?page=with:block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7#block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7

He’s stepping out. Wodner how long he’ll live for.

Replacement is General Wotdididayov

dv said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Despite limitations on free speech that haven’t ben seen since Soviet times, “there is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

The MoD pointed to the appearance of opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin on Russian TV this week, in which he called for a new president to be elected in 2024, in order to rebuild normal relations with Europe.

The ministry said:

“Nadezhdin has been a vocal critic of the war since the invasion, but this is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-three-killed-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-fresh-overnight-strikes?page=with:block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7#block-6478326a8f08403f1d17e3e7

He’s stepping out. Wodner how long he’ll live for.

Replacement is General Wotdididayov

:) I would have thought his replacement would be Whofelloutadoubleglazedseventhfloorwindow.

roughbarked said:

dv said:

roughbarked said:

He’s stepping out. Wodner how long he’ll live for.

Replacement is General Wotdididayov

:) I would have thought his replacement would be Whofelloutadoubleglazedseventhfloorwindow.

A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
THUD

Lucky kids who made it back:

Ukraine war: The mothers going to get their children back from Russia

When 15-year-old Sasha Kraynyuk studied the photograph handed to him by Ukrainian investigators, he recognised the boy dressed in Russian military uniform immediately.

The teenager sitting at a school desk has the Z-mark of Russia’s war emblazoned on his right sleeve, coloured in the red, white and blue of the Russian flag.

But the boy’s name is Artem, and he’s Ukrainian.

Sasha and Artem were among 13 children taken from their own school in Kupyansk, north-eastern Ukraine last September by armed Russian soldiers in balaclavas. Ushered onto a bus with shouts of “Quickly!”, they then disappeared for weeks without trace.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304

Bubblecar said:

Lucky kids who made it back:

Ukraine war: The mothers going to get their children back from Russia

When 15-year-old Sasha Kraynyuk studied the photograph handed to him by Ukrainian investigators, he recognised the boy dressed in Russian military uniform immediately.

The teenager sitting at a school desk has the Z-mark of Russia’s war emblazoned on his right sleeve, coloured in the red, white and blue of the Russian flag.

But the boy’s name is Artem, and he’s Ukrainian.

Sasha and Artem were among 13 children taken from their own school in Kupyansk, north-eastern Ukraine last September by armed Russian soldiers in balaclavas. Ushered onto a bus with shouts of “Quickly!”, they then disappeared for weeks without trace.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304

So few.

In this video, flames and smoke can be seen rising from apartment buildings in Shebikimo in the Belgorod region of Russia:

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aQEZODq_460svav1.mp4

This is caused by pigeons coming home to roost.

dv said:

:)

Michael V said:

dv said:

:)

I’ve seen Russian concrete up close.

Runways that began to visibly disintegrate about 15 mins after the departure of the last Russian technician. All the structural integrity of a beach sandcastle, and for the same reasons.

Russian children evacuated as ‘quite relentless’ shelling continues to hit Belgorod
Shelling in Russia’s Belgorod region has continued after two people were killed on Saturday and hundreds of children were evacuated, according to the region’s governor.
15m ago

Ukrainian armoured vehicle camouflage:

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aeQmo3q_460svav1.mp4

captain_spalding said:

Ukrainian armoured vehicle camouflage:

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aeQmo3q_460svav1.mp4

That is rather Nac Mac Feegle. (Cue Tamb)

captain_spalding said:

Ukrainian armoured vehicle camouflage:

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aeQmo3q_460svav1.mp4

:)

buffy said:

captain_spalding said:

Ukrainian armoured vehicle camouflage:

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aeQmo3q_460svav1.mp4

That is rather Nac Mac Feegle. (Cue Tamb)

Aye. Here lassie.

Nova Khakovka Dam in Ukraine’s Kherson destroyed, region flooding

Supplies water to Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-06/nova-khakovka-dam-kherson-destroyed-region-flooding/102445926

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

617 Squadron most likely.

Peak Warming Man said:

617 Squadron most likely.

I was wondering about that.

esselte said:

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

Real bad for lots of reasons.

Peak Warming Man said:

617 Squadron most likely.

617 are training on the (I think) F-15

PermeateFree said:

esselte said:

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

Real bad for lots of reasons.

Nuclear power stations without cooling water are a Bad Thing.

Tamb said:

PermeateFree said:

esselte said:

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

Real bad for lots of reasons.

Nuclear power stations without cooling water are a Bad Thing.

I reckon.

PermeateFree said:

esselte said:

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

Real bad for lots of reasons.

This is very bad. For as said above. Many reasons.

dv said:

Yeah. Well that one was easy to get.

Probably too soon to be making jokes about it though.

roughbarked said:

PermeateFree said:

esselte said:

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified,” the military said on their official Facebook page.

Video at link. That’s a lot of water

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665935047734571009

Real bad for lots of reasons.

This is very bad. For as said above. Many reasons.

Also rather pointless.

The Russians are developing a habit of doing this.

During a retreat in WW2, the Russians blew up another dam on the Dnipr river in Ukraine to slow down the German advance. Massive downstream destruction, wrecked water supplies, hurt their own industries.

Didn’t slow down the Germans one tiny bit.

captain_spalding said:

The Russians are attempting to starve the world into submission.

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

The Russians are attempting to starve the world into submission.

Reports like this remind me of reports of Japanese pilots during WW2.

They’d come back and say stuff like ‘i scored three direct hits on a battleship!’.

And the next bloke would say ‘i hit a battleship and it exploded and sank!’ (the Japanese were obsessed with battleships for most of the war). And then the next bloke…

Based on reports like that, the Japanese realised that they’d sunk the US and Allied fleets several times over, which may go some way to explaining their willingness to continue the fight.

Of course, they did hit a lot of ships, but rather than admit they’d wasted the effort on bombing e.g. a fleet tug, it would be reported as ‘a battleship!’.

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

The Russians are attempting to starve the world into submission.

Reports like this remind me of reports of Japanese pilots during WW2.

They’d come back and say stuff like ‘i scored three direct hits on a battleship!’.

And the next bloke would say ‘i hit a battleship and it exploded and sank!’ (the Japanese were obsessed with battleships for most of the war). And then the next bloke…

Based on reports like that, the Japanese realised that they’d sunk the US and Allied fleets several times over, which may go some way to explaining their willingness to continue the fight.

Of course, they did hit a lot of ships, but rather than admit they’d wasted the effort on bombing e.g. a fleet tug, it would be reported as ‘a battleship!’.

The Japanese also reported blowing out the Sydney harbour bridge’s central support.

Tamb said:

The Japanese also reported blowing out the Sydney harbour bridge’s central support.

One of the few reminders of WW2 that are still with us today.

captain_spalding said:

Tamb said:

The Japanese also reported blowing out the Sydney harbour bridge’s central support.

One of the few reminders of WW2 that are still with us today.

Yes, they had photos to prove the central support was missing.

Tamb said:

captain_spalding said:

Tamb said:

The Japanese also reported blowing out the Sydney harbour bridge’s central support.

One of the few reminders of WW2 that are still with us today.

Yes, they had photos to prove the central support was missing.

The evidence is incontrevertible.

captain_spalding said:

Ukrainian military have said Russia’s destroyed another dam to hinder the #Ukraine’s offensive. With Ukraine having liberated 4 villages in its eastern Donetsk region, Russian troops are said to have blown up the Klyuchove dam on Mokri Yaly river.

Wellington, New Zealand
CNN —
New Zealand’s national radio broadcaster has launched an investigation and put a staff member on leave after it said a series of news stories on its website about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had been edited to present “a false account of events.”

Radio New Zealand (RNZ), which is government-funded but has editorial independence, had by Sunday corrected 16 stories on its website dating back to April 2022 because of what it termed “inappropriate editing.”

The corrections RNZ added to the stories indicated the editing had changed the original stories to present pro-Russian interpretations of some events in Ukraine as fact. Fourteen of the stories had been supplied by Reuters and one came from Britain’s BBC, the links to the stories show.

RNZ said in a statement it was continuing a detailed audit and analysis of all stories that could have been inappropriately edited.

RNZ is a media client of Reuters.

“Reuters has addressed the issue with RNZ, which has initiated an investigation,” a spokesperson for Reuters said.

“As stated in our terms and conditions, Reuters content cannot be altered without prior written consent. Reuters is fully committed to covering the war in Ukraine impartially and accurately, in keeping with the Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/12/asia/radio-new-zealand-probe-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

(Rubs temples)

dv said:

(Rubs temples)

Ah, like that other country’s Chernobyl.

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

That was on the ABC yesterday. I posted it here.

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

Could they not let it be built and then talk all sorts of nonsense the Russkies think is real.

“Dah fellow parliamentarian that Putin is big strong bear like man, he boils my potatoes”

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

That’s an interesting tidbit.

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

I built one of those a few years ago. I also found that I could get audio from sunlight reflected from windows of rooms in which people were talking.

btm said:

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

I built one of those a few years ago. I also found that I could get audio from sunlight reflected from windows of rooms in which people were talking.

Well there ya go. Now that I think about it, it was over thirty years ago I came up with the idea.

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

I think it was this method I read about before, not sure though

I’ve read about that before or it’s been used in tv or movies
This is something highly involved as well

https://www.zdnet.com/article/academics-steal-data-from-air-gapped-systems-using-pc-fan-vibrations/

Israeli researchers use vibrations from CPU, GPU, or PC chassis fans to broadcast stolen information through solid materials and to nearby receives, breaking air-gapped system protections.

Spiny Norman said:

btm said:

Spiny Norman said:

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

I built one of those a few years ago. I also found that I could get audio from sunlight reflected from windows of rooms in which people were talking.

Well there ya go. Now that I think about it, it was over thirty years ago I came up with the idea.

and like the bow and arrow, it was simultaneously thought of right around the globe?

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_microphone

The technique of using a light beam to remotely record sound probably originated with Léon Theremin in the Soviet Union at or before 1947, when he developed and used the Buran eavesdropping system. This worked by using a low power infrared beam (not a laser) from a distance to detect the sound vibrations in the glass windows. Lavrentiy Beria, head of the KGB, had used this Buran device to spy on the U.S., British, and French embassies in Moscow.[

Cymek said:

Spiny Norman said:

dv said:

CNN —
The Australian government is introducing legislation to terminate a lease of a new Russian embassy near Parliament House in the capital Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Thursday.

“The government has received very clear security advice as to the risk presented by a new Russian presence so close to Parliament House,” Albanese told reporters in a televised press conference.

The land proposed for the second Russian embassy lies directly adjacent to Parliament House, Australian Home Minister Clare O’Neil said alongside Albanese.

“We’re acting quickly to ensure the leased site does not become a formal diplomatic presence,” the prime minister said. He said the decision was taken “in the national security interest of Australia.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/14/australia/australia-russian-embassy-lease-intl-latam/index.html

They might have been able to use a device I thought up many years ago that would let them hear the conversations from many kilometres away
It’s relatively simple to build but difficult to use because of the precision required for it. It’s just a laser that is aimed at a window of the room you want to listen to, and the reflected beam would have the precise frequency of the laser modulated by the vibrations of the window from people talking in the room. Phase out the frequency of the laser and you’re left with mostly the sounds in the room.
So you’d have to be extremely accurate with the angles so pick up the reflected beam.
It might sound a bit odd, but I have read that the CIA use such devices from time to time.

I think it was this method I read about before, not sure though

I’ve read about that before or it’s been used in tv or movies
This is something highly involved as well

https://www.zdnet.com/article/academics-steal-data-from-air-gapped-systems-using-pc-fan-vibrations/

Israeli researchers use vibrations from CPU, GPU, or PC chassis fans to broadcast stolen information through solid materials and to nearby receives, breaking air-gapped system protections.

With the demise of the old CRT monitors, the people that used to do Van Eck Phreaking has dropped substantially.

Spiny Norman said:

With the demise of the old CRT monitors, the people that used to do Van Eck Phreaking has dropped substantially.

VEP still works with LCD monitors. It’s not as easy, though.

They Come At Night, Mostly. With Leopard Tanks And Western Optics, Ukrainian Troops Own The Dark.

David Axe
Forbes Staff
Jun 16, 2023,05:21pm EDT

Ukrainian troops are taking control of the darkness along the southern front in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. As Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive grinds toward its third week, more and more Ukrainian assaults are launching at night.

The Ukrainians’ shift to after-dark operations wasn’t possible until recently. Those hundreds of modern tanks and fighting vehicles that Kyiv has gotten from its foreign allies since January? Their greatest advantage over contemporary Russian vehicles might be their optics, including thermal night-vision gear that can spot enemy forces from thousands of yards away, even in total darkness.

“Imported equipment has excellent night optics,” one Russian milblogger noted. “They can go and conduct surveillance, and aim and control the accuracy of the fire. Therefore, the enemy chooses the night.”

Read more:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/16/they-come-at-night-mostly-with-leopard-tanks-and-western-optics-ukrainian-troops-own-the-dark/?sh=563cd99d54a7

The Kakhovka dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable from the outside. Evidence reviewed by The New York Times clearly suggests that Russia blew it up from within.

The dam, which is controlled by Russia, was built during Soviet times, which meant that Moscow had the structure’s engineering drawings and knew about its Achilles’ heel: a small passage underneath the dam reachable from the machine room. This passageway, the evidence suggests, is where an explosive charge detonated and destroyed the dam.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html?

Witty Rejoinder said:

The Kakhovka dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable from the outside. Evidence reviewed by The New York Times clearly suggests that Russia blew it up from within.

The dam, which is controlled by Russia, was built during Soviet times, which meant that Moscow had the structure’s engineering drawings and knew about its Achilles’ heel: a small passage underneath the dam reachable from the machine room. This passageway, the evidence suggests, is where an explosive charge detonated and destroyed the dam.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html?

An R2-unit stole the plans and leaked it to the rebels.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-23/h_8ca7869e3cd32d5f9f89d96fb2858f4b

The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenary forces.

Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense tricked Wagner and he vowed to “respond to these atrocities.”

“They saw that we weren’t broken and they launched strikes on our camps. A huge amount of our fighters were killed, our comrades in arms. We will make a decision about how to respond to these atrocities. The next step is ours,” he continued, alleging that “they wiped out dozens.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the allegation in a Telegram post Friday, calling the messages and videos spreading on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the event “untrue” and “an informational provocation.”

Prigozhin claimed that the “evil that is being carried out” by Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” following the alleged attack. “They disregard the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word ‘justice,’” Prigozhin said in the voice recording.

“The details started to appear; Minister of Defense arrived to Rostov especially to conduct an operation to destroy Wagner PMC. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots undercover to destroy us,” Prigozhin added.

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-23/h_8ca7869e3cd32d5f9f89d96fb2858f4b

The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenary forces.

Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense tricked Wagner and he vowed to “respond to these atrocities.”

“They saw that we weren’t broken and they launched strikes on our camps. A huge amount of our fighters were killed, our comrades in arms. We will make a decision about how to respond to these atrocities. The next step is ours,” he continued, alleging that “they wiped out dozens.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the allegation in a Telegram post Friday, calling the messages and videos spreading on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the event “untrue” and “an informational provocation.”

Prigozhin claimed that the “evil that is being carried out” by Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” following the alleged attack. “They disregard the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word ‘justice,’” Prigozhin said in the voice recording.

“The details started to appear; Minister of Defense arrived to Rostov especially to conduct an operation to destroy Wagner PMC. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots undercover to destroy us,” Prigozhin added.

Russia’s mission is the denazification of Ukraine, apparently.

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-23/h_8ca7869e3cd32d5f9f89d96fb2858f4b

The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenary forces.

Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense tricked Wagner and he vowed to “respond to these atrocities.”

“They saw that we weren’t broken and they launched strikes on our camps. A huge amount of our fighters were killed, our comrades in arms. We will make a decision about how to respond to these atrocities. The next step is ours,” he continued, alleging that “they wiped out dozens.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the allegation in a Telegram post Friday, calling the messages and videos spreading on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the event “untrue” and “an informational provocation.”

Prigozhin claimed that the “evil that is being carried out” by Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” following the alleged attack. “They disregard the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word ‘justice,’” Prigozhin said in the voice recording.

“The details started to appear; Minister of Defense arrived to Rostov especially to conduct an operation to destroy Wagner PMC. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots undercover to destroy us,” Prigozhin added.

Goodo, keep it up. More Russian vs Russians is what this war needs.

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-23/h_8ca7869e3cd32d5f9f89d96fb2858f4b

The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenary forces.

Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense tricked Wagner and he vowed to “respond to these atrocities.”

“They saw that we weren’t broken and they launched strikes on our camps. A huge amount of our fighters were killed, our comrades in arms. We will make a decision about how to respond to these atrocities. The next step is ours,” he continued, alleging that “they wiped out dozens.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the allegation in a Telegram post Friday, calling the messages and videos spreading on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the event “untrue” and “an informational provocation.”

Prigozhin claimed that the “evil that is being carried out” by Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” following the alleged attack. “They disregard the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word ‘justice,’” Prigozhin said in the voice recording.

“The details started to appear; Minister of Defense arrived to Rostov especially to conduct an operation to destroy Wagner PMC. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots undercover to destroy us,” Prigozhin added.

Russia’s mission is the denazification of Ukraine, apparently.

Seems their real issue is the deNazification of the Kremlin.

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

Prigozhin for President.

Tamb said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

Prigozhin for President.

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

wookiemeister said:

Tamb said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

Prigozhin for President.

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

roughbarked said:

wookiemeister said:

Tamb said:

Prigozhin for President.

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

Yeah, let ‘em fight among themselves, use up ammunition, suffer losses, have equipment destroyed. etc. etc.

Save all your own for action against whichever weakened team prevails.

roughbarked said:

wookiemeister said:

Tamb said:

Prigozhin for President.

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

No they need to commit now !

wookiemeister said:

roughbarked said:

wookiemeister said:

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

No they need to commit now !

They mainly need to be staging diversions, like parking captured Russian tanks where the Russians can waste ammo on.

roughbarked said:

wookiemeister said:

roughbarked said:

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

No they need to commit now !

They mainly need to be staging diversions, like parking captured Russian tanks where the Russians can waste ammo on.

My old man’s trick at Tobruk was to place plywood and cardboard cutouts of tank profiles on the horizon fro Rommel to observe with his binouculars. Made Rommel waste all his fuel chasing shadows.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

Direct delivery to Maralago.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

Nukes always were a danger if not under strict regulationary care.
and it ain’t ever gunna get none better until all nuke warheads and the tech to make them is destroyed.

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

Direct delivery to Maralago.

In the “secure bathroom” ?

party_pants said:

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

Direct delivery to Maralago.

In the “secure bathroom” ?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zDXVw0aatQ

party_pants said:

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

Direct delivery to Maralago.

In the “secure bathroom” ?

He didn’t give a shit where you put it.
It was only his playboy magazine collection anyway.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

OCDC said:

Direct delivery to Maralago.

In the “secure bathroom” ?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zDXVw0aatQ

We have all seen that one.

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

OCDC said:

Direct delivery to Maralago.

In the “secure bathroom” ?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zDXVw0aatQ

that was fucking dreadful :p

Peak Warming Man said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

No thanks. This is one vehicle I refuse to put my exceptional driving skills to use upon.

party_pants said:

OCDC said:

party_pants said:

In the “secure bathroom” ?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zDXVw0aatQ

that was fucking dreadful :p

I am sure that Trump himself would agree.

Peak Warming Man said:

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Wagner boss says his fighters have marched into Russia, Kremlin accuses him of armed mutiny’

‘The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.’

and

Wagner boss says his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims his forces have shot down a Russian military helicopter.

“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin says in a new audio message.

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

party_pants said:

Peak Warming Man said:

party_pants said:

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

I turn murderous when the coaster falls off my drink and rolls across the floor.

party_pants said:

Peak Warming Man said:

party_pants said:

That’s one way to end the war I guess.

Problem is… who gets the nukes if Russia collapses?

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

Nor mine.
Though there is no record of me ever having used a weapon in defence of myself.

Bubblecar said:

party_pants said:

Peak Warming Man said:

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

I turn murderous when the coaster falls off my drink and rolls across the floor.

Yeah but coaster murder, isn’t the nastiest of criminal offences.

Bubblecar said:

party_pants said:

Peak Warming Man said:

I think if they get shared out amongst the forum it would be good.
We’re all excellent and responsible drivers.

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

I turn murderous when the coaster falls off my drink and rolls across the floor.

Maybe they should give Ukraine the nukes they took from them in 1993 …

dv said:

Bubblecar said:

party_pants said:

Hint for humanity – you don’t want to give me control over any nukes. Anger management is not always my strong suite.

I turn murderous when the coaster falls off my drink and rolls across the floor.

Maybe they should give Ukraine the nukes they took from them in 1993 …

Ukraine can probably roll into Belarus and claim the nukes that Russia is installing there, but they’re only tactical as AFAIK.

Bubblecar said:

dv said:

Bubblecar said:

I turn murderous when the coaster falls off my drink and rolls across the floor.

Maybe they should give Ukraine the nukes they took from them in 1993 …

Ukraine can probably roll into Belarus and claim the nukes that Russia is installing there, but they’re only tactical as AFAIK.

That may be a priority.

wookiemeister said:

roughbarked said:

wookiemeister said:

Shirley this would be an ideal time for ukraine to commit all their troops to the offensive?

Why would they need to toss away lives and equipment needlessly? The enemy is eating itself from the inside out.

No they need to commit now !

No, they need to stay out of it.

Let the Russians and the Wagners tear each other to pieces, and for the division and hostility between them to grow, so as to divide them entirely.

The Ukrainians would not want to engage now, in case the Russians and Wagners identify them as a ‘common enemy’, and turn away from their squabble, even temporarily.

Might be time to offer a few bribes to Wagner people to switch sides, or bugger off.

Use some of the money from seized Russian assets to fund it.

party_pants said:

Might be time to offer a few bribes to Wagner people to switch sides, or bugger off.

My mercenary ancestors (actually, some of them are still around) never had any problems with switching sides, if the money was right.

It was never personal, just business, you understand. They were in it for the money, ideals and patriotism were never a factor.

https://youtu.be/rDMMAF4Ms1k

Vladimir Putin addresses Russia on alleged coup

Russian forces have reportedly started to dig fighting positions in Moscow

Google maps is showing the live location of the military convoys heading to Moscow.

https://www.google.com/maps/@55.2899548,38.0572976,8.18z/data=!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu

!!

Kingy said:

Google maps is showing the live location of the military convoys heading to Moscow.

https://www.google.com/maps/@55.2899548,38.0572976,8.18z/data=!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu

!!

You’d think they would learn to turn their location settings off. Mine are always off and I’m not invading anyone…

furious said:

Kingy said:

Google maps is showing the live location of the military convoys heading to Moscow.

https://www.google.com/maps/@55.2899548,38.0572976,8.18z/data=!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu

!!

You’d think they would learn to turn their location settings off. Mine are always off and I’m not invading anyone…

I think it’s picking up everyone else that’s stuck in traffic waiting for them to pass.

The Belarus border is twice as close to Moscow than the Donbas where Wagner were previously stationed. Prigozhin might be precisely where he wants to be.

Witty Rejoinder said:

The Belarus border is twice as close to Moscow than the Donbas where Wagner were previously stationed. Prigozhin might be precisely where he wants to be.

You’ve confused me

dv said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

The Belarus border is twice as close to Moscow than the Donbas where Wagner were previously stationed. Prigozhin might be precisely where he wants to be.

You’ve confused me

Prickshit has gone to Belarus. Belarus is closer to Moscow than the Donbas.

party_pants said:

dv said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

The Belarus border is twice as close to Moscow than the Donbas where Wagner were previously stationed. Prigozhin might be precisely where he wants to be.

You’ve confused me

Prickshit has gone to Belarus. Belarus is closer to Moscow than the Donbas.

We don’t yet know whether his mercenary army has gone there as well, though.

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

dv said:

You’ve confused me

Prickshit has gone to Belarus. Belarus is closer to Moscow than the Donbas.

We don’t yet know whether his mercenary army has gone there as well, though.

This is true. I had assumed they had.

Witty Rejoinder said:

Michael V said:

party_pants said:

Prickshit has gone to Belarus. Belarus is closer to Moscow than the Donbas.

We don’t yet know whether his mercenary army has gone there as well, though.

This is true. I had assumed they had.

He’ll keep a good number of them in Belarus with him. He isn’t going make himself isolated and vulnerable to actions from either Kyiv or Moscow.

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Michael V said:

We don’t yet know whether his mercenary army has gone there as well, though.

This is true. I had assumed they had.

He’ll keep a good number of them in Belarus with him. He isn’t going make himself isolated and vulnerable to actions from either Kyiv or Moscow.

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Kingy said:

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

This is true. I had assumed they had.

He’ll keep a good number of them in Belarus with him. He isn’t going make himself isolated and vulnerable to actions from either Kyiv or Moscow.

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

captain_spalding said:

He’ll keep a good number of them in Belarus with him. He isn’t going make himself isolated and vulnerable to actions from either Kyiv or Moscow.

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

A murderous tinpot wannabe dictator who suddenly needs diplomatic immunity?

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

captain_spalding said:

He’ll keep a good number of them in Belarus with him. He isn’t going make himself isolated and vulnerable to actions from either Kyiv or Moscow.

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

Prigozhin.

Especially if the Russians have followed through on what they announced, and sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Would get him a seat at the high-stakes table.

Kingy said:

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

A murderous tinpot wannabe dictator who suddenly needs diplomatic immunity?

If you have a dispute with Moscow, Belarus is not a very good place to hide. Better off going for some farther away country, maybe one of those resource rich countries in Africa where Wagner already operates.

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

party_pants said:

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

A murderous tinpot wannabe dictator who suddenly needs diplomatic immunity?

If you have a dispute with Moscow, Belarus is not a very good place to hide. Better off going for some farther away country, maybe one of those resource rich countries in Africa where Wagner already operates.

Didn’t Russia recently move some nukes into Belarus?

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

Prigozhin.

Especially if the Russians have followed through on what they announced, and sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Would get him a seat at the high-stakes table.

Perhaps I should have read further…

furious said:

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

A murderous tinpot wannabe dictator who suddenly needs diplomatic immunity?

If you have a dispute with Moscow, Belarus is not a very good place to hide. Better off going for some farther away country, maybe one of those resource rich countries in Africa where Wagner already operates.

Didn’t Russia recently move some nukes into Belarus?

They said they were going to shift some tactical N-weapons to Belarus.

No news on whether they have done that yet, or not.

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

It’ll be much easier for him to take Belarus instead of Moscow, most of the people in it hate their dictator.

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

Prigozhin.

Especially if the Russians have followed through on what they announced, and sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Would get him a seat at the high-stakes table.

A very dangerous situation.

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

Who’d wanna take over Belarus?

Prigozhin.

Especially if the Russians have followed through on what they announced, and sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Would get him a seat at the high-stakes table.

A very dangerous situation.

Or, he might be a stabilising factor.

He’s obviously not averse to negotiation, and he would probably be willing to listen to any ideas that the Zelensky government might put forward.

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

Prigozhin.

Especially if the Russians have followed through on what they announced, and sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Would get him a seat at the high-stakes table.

A very dangerous situation.

Or, he might be a stabilising factor.

He’s obviously not averse to negotiation, and he would probably be willing to listen to any ideas that the Zelensky government might put forward.

Yes, he works for money and it would be interesting if he offered his services to Ukraine.

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

A very dangerous situation.

Or, he might be a stabilising factor.

He’s obviously not averse to negotiation, and he would probably be willing to listen to any ideas that the Zelensky government might put forward.

Yes, he works for money and it would be interesting if he offered his services to Ukraine.

If he was running Belarus, with some inventory of tactical nukes to back him up, he could setup a sort of mini-NATO.

“If Russia attacks you (or ‘if Ukraine attacks you’, depending on who he’s talking to), then i will come to your aid. In the meantime, you keep your nose out of Belarus, and everyone’s happy, right?”

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

A very dangerous situation.

Or, he might be a stabilising factor.

He’s obviously not averse to negotiation, and he would probably be willing to listen to any ideas that the Zelensky government might put forward.

Yes, he works for money and it would be interesting if he offered his services to Ukraine.

If he was running Belarus, with some inventory of tactical nukes to back him up, he could setup a sort of mini-NATO.

“If Russia attacks you (or ‘if Ukraine attacks you’, depending on who he’s talking to), then i will come to your aid. In the meantime, you keep your nose out of Belarus, and everyone’s happy, right?”

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

Or, he might be a stabilising factor.

He’s obviously not averse to negotiation, and he would probably be willing to listen to any ideas that the Zelensky government might put forward.

Yes, he works for money and it would be interesting if he offered his services to Ukraine.

If he was running Belarus, with some inventory of tactical nukes to back him up, he could setup a sort of mini-NATO.

“If Russia attacks you (or ‘if Ukraine attacks you’, depending on who he’s talking to), then i will come to your aid. In the meantime, you keep your nose out of Belarus, and everyone’s happy, right?”

Now that would be a bit of a turnout.

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

Yes, he works for money and it would be interesting if he offered his services to Ukraine.

If he was running Belarus, with some inventory of tactical nukes to back him up, he could setup a sort of mini-NATO.

“If Russia attacks you (or ‘if Ukraine attacks you’, depending on who he’s talking to), then i will come to your aid. In the meantime, you keep your nose out of Belarus, and everyone’s happy, right?”

Now that would be a bit of a turnout.

Sometimes i think i missed my calling.

I could have been a rather good power broker.

Nevermind the nukes, the current ruler of Belarus might not be very welcoming.

party_pants said:

Nevermind the nukes, the current ruler of Belarus might not be very welcoming.

Leaders are, like the rest of us, quite expendable.

Prigozhin certainly has the means available.

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

Nevermind the nukes, the current ruler of Belarus might not be very welcoming.

Leaders are, like the rest of us, quite expendable.

Prigozhin certainly has the means available.

That’s if he doesn’t fall out of a window first…

captain_spalding said:

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

If he was running Belarus, with some inventory of tactical nukes to back him up, he could setup a sort of mini-NATO.

“If Russia attacks you (or ‘if Ukraine attacks you’, depending on who he’s talking to), then i will come to your aid. In the meantime, you keep your nose out of Belarus, and everyone’s happy, right?”

Now that would be a bit of a turnout.

Sometimes i think i missed my calling.

I could have been a rather good power broker.

:)

A talking head on ABC News 24 today whose name I don’t recall talked about other oligarchs having private armies in addition to Prigozhin. This article from February suggests that in addition to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s army, who I was aware of, numerous other individuals both within and outside the Russian military command are amassing armed supporters. Fun times:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/13/putin-private-armies-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-kremlin

Witty Rejoinder said:

A talking head on ABC News 24 today whose name I don’t recall talked about other oligarchs having private armies in addition to Prigozhin. This article from February suggests that in addition to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s army, who I was aware of, numerous other individuals both within and outside the Russian military command are amassing armed supporters. Fun times:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/13/putin-private-armies-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-kremlin

Probably illegal in Aus. Damn regulators suppressing innovation and business.

party_pants said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

A talking head on ABC News 24 today whose name I don’t recall talked about other oligarchs having private armies in addition to Prigozhin. This article from February suggests that in addition to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s army, who I was aware of, numerous other individuals both within and outside the Russian military command are amassing armed supporters. Fun times:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/13/putin-private-armies-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-kremlin

Probably illegal in Aus. Damn regulators suppressing innovation and business.

Probably illegal in Russia too. Dunno. They charged bunghole features with treason didn’t they? Exiles to Bellarus, when he said he’d use his. Like to see Pootey say “No ya can’t” to all thse Olly Garks. Then see what happens. 😮

Russia Appears to Have Detained Top General in Post-Mutiny Crackdown, U.S. Officials Say

The circumstances surrounding Gen. Sergei Surovikin’s status are still very murky. U.S. officials cautioned that the intelligence reports were not conclusive and could not provide further details.

By Helene Cooper, Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt
Reporting from Washington

June 29, 2023, 3:02 p.m. ET
U.S. officials, citing early intelligence reports, say that Russian authorities appear to have detained a top general under suspicion that he was involved in or had knowledge of the planning for the Wagner Group’s failed rebellion.

The circumstances surrounding the status of the general, Sergei Surovikin, are still very murky. U.S. officials cautioned that the reports were not conclusive and said they could not provide further details.

American officials would not say — or do not know — if he was formally arrested or just held for questioning.

Focus in Russia on the fate of General Surovikin, the country’s former top commander in Ukraine, has been intense following a New York Times report that U.S. spy agencies believe that he knew ahead of time about the rebellion, led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, against Russia’s military leadership.

A senior NATO-country diplomat said that firm intelligence was lacking, but that careful comments by Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov on Thursday in which he deflected questions about General Surovikin’s whereabouts seemed to confirm the general’s detention.

News of General Surovikin’s detention was earlier reported by The Financial Times.

There were conflicting reports in the Russian news media about General Surovikin’s fate. Some pro-war bloggers on the popular Telegram social network reported this week that he had been arrested, while others said that was not the case.

One popular account posted a recording of an interview with a woman it said was General Surovikin’s daughter, who denied that her father had been arrested. “Nothing happened to him,” she said. “He’s at his work location.” The account could not be independently verified.

American intelligence agencies have been trying to learn more about the general’s potential role in the rebellion: whether he simply knew about it or helped plan the revolt, which has come to be seen as the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.

The question is a critical one for Mr. Putin as well.

For years, Mr. Putin has allowed different factions to exist inside the Russian military. But after the short-lived mutiny, the Kremlin may be more likely to purge at least some of the senior officers who are less supportive of Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister.

Mr. Prigozhin had expressed rage against Russian military leadership for months before the revolt, concentrating most of his ire on Mr. Putin’s two senior military advisers: Mr. Shoigu and Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff.

American officials said that Mr. Prigozhin’s failed rebellion could, at least for the time being, have the perverse effect of strengthening Mr. Shoigu’s hold on the top job, since Mr. Putin would not want to be seen as caving to Mr. Prigozhin.

Some Western analysts said the apparent detention of General Surovikin and uncertainty about the fate of other senior officers could hurt Russian troop morale.

“That there has not been a clear signal from the top about these very senior generals’ standing after the Prigozhin mutiny can’t be good for morale,” said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation.

“Surovikin in particular is known to be popular with the rank and file,” Mr. Charap said. “If he has been arrested and there is no explanation from the top, one can imagine his subordinates might be preoccupied with their own safety not the war.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/europe/sergey-surovikin-detained-russia.html?

Witty Rejoinder said:

“Surovikin in particular is known to be popular with the rank and file,” Mr. Charap said. “If he has been arrested and there is no explanation from the top, one can imagine his subordinates might be preoccupied with their own safety not the war.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/europe/sergey-surovikin-detained-russia.html?

It’s probably not so significant to Russia’s conscripts, who just want it to be over with in one way or another and to go home, but among the more professional parts of the Russian forces, the removal of popular leaders (probably because they seemed to give a damn about the troops and had some real ability – the usual reasons for popularity with the ranks) could cause trouble for the Russians.

If Shoigu and his lackeys are seen by the troops as people who are likely to get them killed through either or both of apathy towards them or professional incompetence, for little or no real purpose, they may become increasingly reluctant to obey orders from them.

It’s happened before – look at the state of morale and disaffection among Russian soldiers in the latter stages of their part in WW1. Mutiny was not uncommon, murder of officers, desertion, surrender on a large scale

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

“Surovikin in particular is known to be popular with the rank and file,” Mr. Charap said. “If he has been arrested and there is no explanation from the top, one can imagine his subordinates might be preoccupied with their own safety not the war.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/europe/sergey-surovikin-detained-russia.html?

It’s probably not so significant to Russia’s conscripts, who just want it to be over with in one way or another and to go home, but among the more professional parts of the Russian forces, the removal of popular leaders (probably because they seemed to give a damn about the troops and had some real ability – the usual reasons for popularity with the ranks) could cause trouble for the Russians.

If Shoigu and his lackeys are seen by the troops as people who are likely to get them killed through either or both of apathy towards them or professional incompetence, for little or no real purpose, they may become increasingly reluctant to obey orders from them.

It’s happened before – look at the state of morale and disaffection among Russian soldiers in the latter stages of their part in WW1. Mutiny was not uncommon, murder of officers, desertion, surrender on a large scale

Like fragging in the Vietnam war.

While the Ukrainian offensive gives every appearance of having slowed, or bogged down, the reality may be different.

Ukraine is nowhere as near as inconsiderate of its soldiers lives as are the Russians. Partly because they don’t want to see their people slaughtered (never has been a concern to Russian generals), and partly because they don’t have the manpower resources to waste in the way that the Russians do.

I think that what we’re seeing now is more or less a broad-fronted armed reconnaissance, probing to see where the seams and cracks are in the Russian defences. With a layered defence such as the Russians have built, you don’t just charge blindly at it and accept that wave after wave of your troops will go down (unless you’re Russian).

With the time-tested maxim of needing three times the number of attackers compared to defenders, careful intelligence gathering and planning is a high priority for the Ukrainians.

As well, the broad-fronted probing keeps the other side guessing as to just where an assault might come, making it harder for them to concentrate their forces.

Once they identify a likely point for forcing a line, resources will be mustered to assault it (which takes time, and care), and if the line can be breached, they’ll bring everything to bear on the Russian positions that have been identified, and they’ll pour through.

In situations like this, it can appear that little is happening for weeks on end, but then, suddenly, a whole lot happens very quickly indeed.

And then the routine is repeated for the next layer of defence.

The Ukrainians could go a couple of ways. One is to aim for Verkhni Tokmak which is a very important rail hub. Cut those lines, and the Russian supply situation in the west and south gets very dodgy indeed.

Another might be to aim to surround and cut off the city of Tokmak (just Tokmak) farther west. This would cut off the Tokmak airbase, and, given the importance Russians place on ‘holding’ cities, isolate who knows how many Russian troops in the city.

Or, they could push towards Mariupol. Again, not to directly ‘liberate; it, but to ensure that a lot of Russians are tied up in ‘defending’ it.

And the Russians have to try to cover all contingencies, including these three. Whereas the Ukrainians really need to concentrate on only one. It all depends on what the Ukrainians are learning about the Russian defences.

The utlimate aim of any push-through would be to reach the Sea of Azov, and divide the Russian forces. If they can do that, and hold that division, then the destruction of the Kerch bridge would severely disrupt supply to the whole southern occupied area and to Crimea, and put all that area under siege. A pretty strong position.

But, they will have to try to achieve their goals by October at the latest. After that, life gets a lot more difficult for everyone.

The next several weeks will tell.

The destruction of that dam makes a huge difference too. On the upstream portion there is now no hope of an amphibious crossing, and the lake bed it too wet and soggy to cross by vehicle. Downstream the floodwaters have made everything too damp and soggy too to get heavy vehicles and equipment across in numbers. It is a bit of spanner in the works to any offensive they might have spent the last few weeks contemplating and planning.

party_pants said:

The destruction of that dam makes a huge difference too. On the upstream portion there is now no hope of an amphibious crossing, and the lake bed it too wet and soggy to cross by vehicle. Downstream the floodwaters have made everything too damp and soggy too to get heavy vehicles and equipment across in numbers. It is a bit of spanner in the works to any offensive they might have spent the last few weeks contemplating and planning.

Yeah, but that’s a long way down the river from the area i’m thinking of, east of Zaporizhzhia.

And flooding and bogginess is a double edged sword. It makes it just as hard for the Russians to move about in that area as it would be for the Ukrainians.

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

The destruction of that dam makes a huge difference too. On the upstream portion there is now no hope of an amphibious crossing, and the lake bed it too wet and soggy to cross by vehicle. Downstream the floodwaters have made everything too damp and soggy too to get heavy vehicles and equipment across in numbers. It is a bit of spanner in the works to any offensive they might have spent the last few weeks contemplating and planning.

Yeah, but that’s a long way down the river from the area i’m thinking of, east of Zaporizhzhia.

And flooding and bogginess is a double edged sword. It makes it just as hard for the Russians to move about in that area as it would be for the Ukrainians.

Its why the russians used tracked vehicles for all assault vehicles, they’ll be fine. Any attacks can be blunted by massive artillery and missile strikes.

I still put my money on the red army

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

party_pants said:

The destruction of that dam makes a huge difference too. On the upstream portion there is now no hope of an amphibious crossing, and the lake bed it too wet and soggy to cross by vehicle. Downstream the floodwaters have made everything too damp and soggy too to get heavy vehicles and equipment across in numbers. It is a bit of spanner in the works to any offensive they might have spent the last few weeks contemplating and planning.

Yeah, but that’s a long way down the river from the area i’m thinking of, east of Zaporizhzhia.

And flooding and bogginess is a double edged sword. It makes it just as hard for the Russians to move about in that area as it would be for the Ukrainians.

Its why the russians used tracked vehicles for all assault vehicles, they’ll be fine. Any attacks can be blunted by massive artillery and missile strikes.

Ever seen a tank bogged in mud?

You really don’t understand what ‘bogged’ means until you have.

wookiemeister said:

I still put my money on the red army

Ain’t been no Red Army for decades, bro.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

Yeah, but that’s a long way down the river from the area i’m thinking of, east of Zaporizhzhia.

And flooding and bogginess is a double edged sword. It makes it just as hard for the Russians to move about in that area as it would be for the Ukrainians.

Its why the russians used tracked vehicles for all assault vehicles, they’ll be fine. Any attacks can be blunted by massive artillery and missile strikes.

Ever seen a tank bogged in mud?

You really don’t understand what ‘bogged’ means until you have.

Ukraine has a very deep fertile soil that absorbs moisture, it became well known in ww2 for the nazis. The cold got Napoleon, the mud got Hitler, better technology , strategy and fighting on home soil got NATO.

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

…strategy and fighting on home soil got NATO.

Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

There’s an awful lot of Ukrainian people who would dispute the claim that the Russians are ‘fighting on home soil’.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

…strategy and fighting on home soil got NATO.

Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

There’s an awful lot of Ukrainian people who would dispute the claim that the Russians are ‘fighting on home soil’.

Always been Russia I’m afraid

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

…strategy and fighting on home soil got NATO.

Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

There’s an awful lot of Ukrainian people who would dispute the claim that the Russians are ‘fighting on home soil’.

Always been Russia I’m afraid

Y’know, New Zealand started off as part of NSW. Does the logic apply there, too?

I mean, it was once NSW.

What right do the Kiwis have to suddenly up and decide that they’re a whole other country?

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

There’s an awful lot of Ukrainian people who would dispute the claim that the Russians are ‘fighting on home soil’.

Always been Russia I’m afraid

Y’know, New Zealand started off as part of NSW. Does the logic apply there, too?

NZ is rapidly going into the pages of history. Before the maoris lived another people – the maoris don’t have ownership issues because they ATE them. The NZ gov will be maori soon and have a name change.

Australia will go the same way – dead man walking

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

Always been Russia I’m afraid

Y’know, New Zealand started off as part of NSW. Does the logic apply there, too?

NZ is rapidly going into the pages of history. Before the maoris lived another people – the maoris don’t have ownership issues because they ATE them. The NZ gov will be maori soon and have a name change.

Australia will go the same way – dead man walking

Maybe it’s not too late. Could we conceivably eat all of the Aboriginal people?

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

Y’know, New Zealand started off as part of NSW. Does the logic apply there, too?

NZ is rapidly going into the pages of history. Before the maoris lived another people – the maoris don’t have ownership issues because they ATE them. The NZ gov will be maori soon and have a name change.

Australia will go the same way – dead man walking

Maybe it’s not too late. Could we conceivably eat all of the Aboriginal people?

I don’t think they would taste very nice

A tough jerky that smells like tobacco with a ten % volume.

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

NZ is rapidly going into the pages of history. Before the maoris lived another people – the maoris don’t have ownership issues because they ATE them. The NZ gov will be maori soon and have a name change.

Australia will go the same way – dead man walking

Maybe it’s not too late. Could we conceivably eat all of the Aboriginal people?

I don’t think they would taste very nice

A tough jerky that smells like tobacco with a ten % volume.

I was blown away when I saw them going through BWS in a community – sheer idiocy when you consider the damage it’s done

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

Y’know, New Zealand started off as part of NSW. Does the logic apply there, too?

NZ is rapidly going into the pages of history. Before the maoris lived another people – the maoris don’t have ownership issues because they ATE them. The NZ gov will be maori soon and have a name change.

Australia will go the same way – dead man walking

Maybe it’s not too late. Could we conceivably eat all of the Aboriginal people?

I watched some rather morbid video on the history of cannibalism the other day. Apparently children are quite a delicacy.

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

…strategy and fighting on home soil got NATO.

Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

There’s an awful lot of Ukrainian people who would dispute the claim that the Russians are ‘fighting on home soil’.

Always been Russia I’m afraid

No. Only the Soviet Union. Never Russia.

I suppose if they’re only used on their own territory then Ukraine is entirely within its rights to use cluster munitions despite the long-term consequences.

What we need are cluster munitions capable of exploding anti-tank mines over an acre at a time.

Witty Rejoinder said:

I suppose if they’re only used on their own territory then Ukraine is entirely within its rights to use cluster munitions despite the long-term consequences.

What we need are cluster munitions capable of exploding anti-tank mines over an acre at a time.

That’s where fuel/air explosives come in.

Dropped from an aircraft, they quickly spread a cloud of fuel vapour over a large area, which is then ignited.

This produces a large pressure wave, which should set off mines underneath it.

Witty Rejoinder said:

I suppose if they’re only used on their own territory then Ukraine is entirely within its rights to use cluster munitions despite the long-term consequences.

What we need are cluster munitions capable of exploding anti-tank mines over an acre at a time.

Leon Panetta, a former defence secretary and CIA director, said: “There isn’t a weapon used in warfare that doesn’t carry the risks of killing people. That’s what these weapons are all about.

“It’s also true that the Russians have used these munitions and have targeted civilian populations in attacks across Ukraine. When you’re facing an enemy that has no regard for the human costs involved, you have to figure out what step do you take to try to confront that kind of force?

“The Russians have got 180,000 Russians supposedly, combined with a huge number of mines that have been placed in the ground. They’re dug in, in defensive positions. From a straight strategy point of view, you have to find a way to break the Russian defensive position – and this is one of those ways.”

Garud

.

Hmmmm. No nice way to conduct a war.

Ian said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

I suppose if they’re only used on their own territory then Ukraine is entirely within its rights to use cluster munitions despite the long-term consequences.

What we need are cluster munitions capable of exploding anti-tank mines over an acre at a time.

Leon Panetta, a former defence secretary and CIA director, said: “There isn’t a weapon used in warfare that doesn’t carry the risks of killing people. That’s what these weapons are all about.

“It’s also true that the Russians have used these munitions and have targeted civilian populations in attacks across Ukraine. When you’re facing an enemy that has no regard for the human costs involved, you have to figure out what step do you take to try to confront that kind of force?

“The Russians have got 180,000 Russians supposedly, combined with a huge number of mines that have been placed in the ground. They’re dug in, in defensive positions. From a straight strategy point of view, you have to find a way to break the Russian defensive position – and this is one of those ways.”

Garud

.

Hmmmm. No nice way to conduct a war.

If you want to witness the lowest depths to which human beings can sink, visit a battlefield shortly after the shooting stops.

Cluster bombs are rather good ground-denial weapons.

If you drop a bomb on a runway, a truck and a bulldozer will have it filled, pronto.

If you drop a cluster bomb, and it scatters lots of little mines up and down and across the runway, then someone has to sit there for who knows how long trying to set them off one by one with a heavy-calibre rifle. And can you be sure that he got all of them?

it is now 500 days into the 3 day war.

party_pants said:

it is now 500 days into the 3 day war.

Heard that.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

It’s good news.

Bubblecar said:

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

It’s good news.

Gift baskets of chocolate from Sweden did the trick

Bubblecar said:

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

It’s good news.

Someone in the Kremlin isn’t going to like this, Yogi…

captain_spalding said:

Bubblecar said:

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

It’s good news.

Someone in the Kremlin isn’t going to like this, Yogi…

Russia really doesn’t have much to offer as an alternative

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

Keating reckons NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a fool.

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

Keating reckons NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a fool.

Exactly. He’s either a secretary or a general. He can’t be both.

Woodie said:

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdogan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.

After talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to move forward.

“I’m glad to announce … President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference.

“This is a historic day.”

—-

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

Keating reckons NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a fool.

Exactly. He’s either a secretary or a general. He can’t be both.

I wonder who the Secretary-Special is.

dv said:

Woodie said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Keating reckons NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a fool.

Exactly. He’s either a secretary or a general. He can’t be both.

I wonder who the Secretary-Special is.

The white supremacist back there with the pointy blue tits.

dv said:

Of course, I’m not sure he is.

Looks like the Kerch bridge got walloped again.

https://opoyi.com/world/traffic-at-kerch-bridge-halted-amid-explosion/

And yet, despite all this…

captain_spalding said:

And yet, despite all this…

The drones were being fed data by US / UK surveillance aircraft / drones

My guesses – Russia will start shooting them down

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

And yet, despite all this…

The drones were being fed data by US / UK surveillance aircraft / drones

My guesses – Russia will start shooting them down

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

And yet, despite all this…

The drones were being fed data by US / UK surveillance aircraft / drones

My guesses – Russia will start shooting them down

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

The drones were being fed data by US / UK surveillance aircraft / drones

My guesses – Russia will start shooting them down

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

Weren’t they about to deploy submarine drones?

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

The drones were being fed data by US / UK surveillance aircraft / drones

My guesses – Russia will start shooting them down

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

The Economy Must Grow ¡

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIO1_K1Dtmc

Link

UKR 2nd Gen marine drone

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

Yeah, i thought that they would be. You need a hefty payload to damage big things like bridges, and the boats, with 180 – 200 kg of explosives are a good vehicle. You need a pretty big flying drone to do the equivalent, or a rather expensive missile.

But, wookie was talking about shooting things down. If he means the EC-135s and RC-135s that the US and NATO have had orbiting on the fringes of the excitement, then the Russians will be signalling that (a) they’re utterly desperate, and (b) tired of living, because that’s when NATO will really release the hounds.

SCIENCE said:

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

The Economy Must Grow ¡

“Priority one — Ensure the economy grows. All other considerations secondary. Life expendable.”

We haven’t seen ‘proper’ flying drones yet.

Old planes, even Cessnas and Pipers and Beechcraft, fitted with remote-control gear and packed with a really kick-arse load of explosives and flown into targets.

The idea is not new, both the Allies and the Germans tried it in WW2, with varying degrees of success (look up ‘Operation Aphrodite’ and ‘Mistel bombers’).

Maybe the planes would just be too easy for the Russians to shot down these days. Then again, maybe the Ukrainians just haven’t got around to it yet.

captain_spalding said:

We haven’t seen ‘proper’ flying drones yet.

Old planes, even Cessnas and Pipers and Beechcraft, fitted with remote-control gear and packed with a really kick-arse load of explosives and flown into targets.

The idea is not new, both the Allies and the Germans tried it in WW2, with varying degrees of success (look up ‘Operation Aphrodite’ and ‘Mistel bombers’).

Maybe the planes would just be too easy for the Russians to shot down these days. Then again, maybe the Ukrainians just haven’t got around to it yet.

I wonder how well high flying glide drones that only activate engines when directly above targets would work so they essential suicide dive at high speed.

captain_spalding said:

We haven’t seen ‘proper’ flying drones yet.

Old planes, even Cessnas and Pipers and Beechcraft, fitted with remote-control gear and packed with a really kick-arse load of explosives and flown into targets.

The idea is not new, both the Allies and the Germans tried it in WW2, with varying degrees of success (look up ‘Operation Aphrodite’ and ‘Mistel bombers’).

Maybe the planes would just be too easy for the Russians to shot down these days. Then again, maybe the Ukrainians just haven’t got around to it yet.

Here ya go. Give ‘em this nice shiny new one.

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

captain_spalding said:

What, shooting down the drones?

Now, there’s an idea. You should send an e-mail to the Kremlin, make sure they’ve not missed it.

‘Hey, fellas, those drones that cause so much trouble for you, have you tried shooting at them?’

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

I think attacking the bridge is a great strategic ploy but it’s seriously difficult to do any truly meaningful damage. Sure they can take out a span or two but these sorts of concrete structures are pre-fabricated leggo blocks and it’s really not that difficult to repair. I imagine the uncertainty of moving critical goods over the bridge is the effect they are after, along with trepidation of civilian travel.

diddly-squat said:

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

they were boat drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

I think attacking the bridge is a great strategic ploy but it’s seriously difficult to do any truly meaningful damage. Sure they can take out a span or two but these sorts of concrete structures are pre-fabricated leggo blocks and it’s really not that difficult to repair. I imagine the uncertainty of moving critical goods over the bridge is the effect they are after, along with trepidation of civilian travel.

they hit one of the pylons this time because they used marine drones. Plus they have hit the factory that makes the spans apparently.

ChrispenEvan said:

diddly-squat said:

ChrispenEvan said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

I think attacking the bridge is a great strategic ploy but it’s seriously difficult to do any truly meaningful damage. Sure they can take out a span or two but these sorts of concrete structures are pre-fabricated leggo blocks and it’s really not that difficult to repair. I imagine the uncertainty of moving critical goods over the bridge is the effect they are after, along with trepidation of civilian travel.

they hit one of the pylons this time because they used marine drones. Plus they have hit the factory that makes the spans apparently.

Could you also continue to attack anyone trying to repair the bridge

Bridges are bastards of targets. They’re very hard to hit, and even when hit, their mostly open-work construction lets a lot of explosive force just pass right on by, so they’re harder to damage than e.g. a warehouse, or a factory, or whatever.

Wars from WW1 onwards are replete in their histories with examples of long and arduous campaigns to destroy particular bridges, costing great numbers of weapons, lives, and aircraft/vehicles.

And if the people who own the bridge are at all well organised and supplied, then 9 times out of 10, they’ll have it repaired and operating again pretty soon. It’s a structure that doesn’t have to house anything, or do anything, It just has to be there, so it’s not too complicated to restore to working order.

ChrispenEvan said:

diddly-squat said:

ChrispenEvan said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGDCRwSNqYE

Link

Crimean Bridge Attacked Again — One Span Destroyed by Marine Drones

Suchomimus

I think attacking the bridge is a great strategic ploy but it’s seriously difficult to do any truly meaningful damage. Sure they can take out a span or two but these sorts of concrete structures are pre-fabricated leggo blocks and it’s really not that difficult to repair. I imagine the uncertainty of moving critical goods over the bridge is the effect they are after, along with trepidation of civilian travel.

they hit one of the pylons this time because they used marine drones. Plus they have hit the factory that makes the spans apparently.

How about dams then,

SCIENCE said:

ammo dump and logistic depot. saw a video on it this morn.

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

Its a type of cargo ship. The russians on the ship couldn’t be bothered to establish a watch to counter these drones.

In other news the Ukrainians are building massive cemeteries to house the influx of new customers. The offensive went nowhere, leopard 2s , yank APCs, pommie APCs litter the steppes. The russian defence lines are deep , all the destruction of Ukrainian forces is happening in the grey zone. A few more hundred thousand russians have volunteered to join the army – the russian juggernaut gathers further steam. The strategy is to destroy the Ukrainian military rather than take territory per se.

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

Its a type of cargo ship. The russians on the ship couldn’t be bothered to establish a watch to counter these drones.

In other news the Ukrainians are building massive cemeteries to house the influx of new customers. The offensive went nowhere, leopard 2s , yank APCs, pommie APCs litter the steppes. The russian defence lines are deep , all the destruction of Ukrainian forces is happening in the grey zone. A few more hundred thousand russians have volunteered to join the army – the russian juggernaut gathers further steam. The strategy is to destroy the Ukrainian military rather than take territory per se.

From what I saw its a type of cargo ship.

Check out telegram and you’ll see lots of things you don’t see on the ABC. Thousands of images of smashed up, burnt out western armour.

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

Yes.

wookiemeister said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

Its a type of cargo ship. The russians on the ship couldn’t be bothered to establish a watch to counter these drones.

In other news the Ukrainians are building massive cemeteries to house the influx of new customers. The offensive went nowhere, leopard 2s , yank APCs, pommie APCs litter the steppes. The russian defence lines are deep , all the destruction of Ukrainian forces is happening in the grey zone. A few more hundred thousand russians have volunteered to join the army – the russian juggernaut gathers further steam. The strategy is to destroy the Ukrainian military rather than take territory per se.

From what I saw its a type of cargo ship.

Check out telegram and you’ll see lots of things you don’t see on the ABC. Thousands of images of smashed up, burnt out western armour.

For your information, the ABC doesn’t shy away from showing the fact that Ukranian forces have huge losses. It is more that the Ukranians generally don’t release much information about their losses.

wookiemeister said:

wookiemeister said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

Looks like the Russians won’t have one of their Ropucha-class landing ships for a while:

That drone definitely made it all the way.

Its a type of cargo ship. The russians on the ship couldn’t be bothered to establish a watch to counter these drones.

In other news the Ukrainians are building massive cemeteries to house the influx of new customers. The offensive went nowhere, leopard 2s , yank APCs, pommie APCs litter the steppes. The russian defence lines are deep , all the destruction of Ukrainian forces is happening in the grey zone. A few more hundred thousand russians have volunteered to join the army – the russian juggernaut gathers further steam. The strategy is to destroy the Ukrainian military rather than take territory per se.

From what I saw its a type of cargo ship.

Check out telegram and you’ll see lots of things you don’t see on the ABC. Thousands of images of smashed up, burnt out western armour.

Wookie, you can comfort yourself with whatever wishful thinking about ‘cargo ships’ that you like.

However, that silhouette is unmistakable to anyone who has any familiarity with Russian/Soviet/Warsaw Pact warships. And i’ve been studying them, for one reason or another, for over 40 years.

It’s a Ropucha-class large landing ship. You can find out more about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship. And yes, they’re definitely part of the Black Sea Fleet, and they definitely operate from Novorossiysk. Have done for many, many years.

If you search about for images of Ropucha-class ships, you’ll readily agree that the target was a Ropucha. Any other conclusion would be seriously delusional.

Although, to be fair, landing ships could be thought of as a type of ‘cargo ship’. Cargo ships that carry 2 × 57 mm AK-725 double guns (Ropucha I), 1 × 76 mm AK-176 (Ropucha II), 2 × 30 122 mm rocket launcher A-215 Grad-M, Strela 2(SA-N-5) surface-to-air missile system (4 launchers), 2 × 30 mm AK-630 six-barreled gatling guns (Ropucha II)

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

wookiemeister said:

Its a type of cargo ship. The russians on the ship couldn’t be bothered to establish a watch to counter these drones.

In other news the Ukrainians are building massive cemeteries to house the influx of new customers. The offensive went nowhere, leopard 2s , yank APCs, pommie APCs litter the steppes. The russian defence lines are deep , all the destruction of Ukrainian forces is happening in the grey zone. A few more hundred thousand russians have volunteered to join the army – the russian juggernaut gathers further steam. The strategy is to destroy the Ukrainian military rather than take territory per se.

From what I saw its a type of cargo ship.

Check out telegram and you’ll see lots of things you don’t see on the ABC. Thousands of images of smashed up, burnt out western armour.

Wookie, you can comfort yourself with whatever wishful thinking about ‘cargo ships’ that you like.

However, that silhouette is unmistakable to anyone who has any familiarity with Russian/Soviet/Warsaw Pact warships. And i’ve been studying them, for one reason or another, for over 40 years.

It’s a Ropucha-class large landing ship. You can find out more about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship. And yes, they’re definitely part of the Black Sea Fleet, and they definitely operate from Novorossiysk. Have done for many, many years.

If you search about for images of Ropucha-class ships, you’ll readily agree that the target was a Ropucha. Any other conclusion would be seriously delusional.

Although, to be fair, landing ships could be thought of as a type of ‘cargo ship’. Cargo ships that carry 2 × 57 mm AK-725 double guns (Ropucha I), 1 × 76 mm AK-176 (Ropucha II), 2 × 30 122 mm rocket launcher A-215 Grad-M, Strela 2(SA-N-5) surface-to-air missile system (4 launchers), 2 × 30 mm AK-630 six-barreled gatling guns (Ropucha II)

Capacity

10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 BTR and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LB, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo

roughbarked said:

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

From what I saw its a type of cargo ship.

Check out telegram and you’ll see lots of things you don’t see on the ABC. Thousands of images of smashed up, burnt out western armour.

Wookie, you can comfort yourself with whatever wishful thinking about ‘cargo ships’ that you like.

However, that silhouette is unmistakable to anyone who has any familiarity with Russian/Soviet/Warsaw Pact warships. And i’ve been studying them, for one reason or another, for over 40 years.

It’s a Ropucha-class large landing ship. You can find out more about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship. And yes, they’re definitely part of the Black Sea Fleet, and they definitely operate from Novorossiysk. Have done for many, many years.

If you search about for images of Ropucha-class ships, you’ll readily agree that the target was a Ropucha. Any other conclusion would be seriously delusional.

Although, to be fair, landing ships could be thought of as a type of ‘cargo ship’. Cargo ships that carry 2 × 57 mm AK-725 double guns (Ropucha I), 1 × 76 mm AK-176 (Ropucha II), 2 × 30 122 mm rocket launcher A-215 Grad-M, Strela 2(SA-N-5) surface-to-air missile system (4 launchers), 2 × 30 mm AK-630 six-barreled gatling guns (Ropucha II)

Capacity

10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 BTR and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LB, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo

The Indonesians operate some former East German ‘Frosch’ class landing ships that are very similar in profile, but rather smaller.

While the Frosch class were built in Germany, the Ropuchas were built in Poland, during the Warsaw Pact days i.e. in the 1970s. This is probably a factor in why they’re still in service.

That was a major value point to Russia in having Poland under its sway. They built good ships, generally better, more reliable, and longer-lasting than Soviet/Russian construction. The Ropuchas would be hard for the Russians to replace with anything as reliable and durable.

They did build a set of three ‘Ivan Rogov’ class large landing ships in Russia, but they proved to be rather the white elephants, and all have now been decommissioned, two of them scrapped, and one in limbo.

Either way the crew on the russian ship couldn’t be bothered having a competent night-watch. In a wartime situation they couldn’t be bothered to look from the deck.

The russians were lucky it wasn’t sunk.

The latest horrorific news is 400,000 uko dead and presumably 4 X wounded or more

wookiemeister said:

Either way the crew on the russian ship couldn’t be bothered having a competent night-watch. In a wartime situation they couldn’t be bothered to look from the deck.

Well, it’s difficult to say.

If they were in a supposedly ‘secure’ port, or secure naval anchorage within a port, with its own defences like floating boom barriers and nets and its own guards and lookouts, then they might be excused for not mounting their own watch.

If they were just out in open, unsecured waters, then, yes, that’d be pretty slack.

captain_spalding said:

wookiemeister said:

Either way the crew on the russian ship couldn’t be bothered having a competent night-watch. In a wartime situation they couldn’t be bothered to look from the deck.

Well, it’s difficult to say.

If they were in a supposedly ‘secure’ port, or secure naval anchorage within a port, with its own defences like floating boom barriers and nets and its own guards and lookouts, then they might be excused for not mounting their own watch.

If they were just out in open, unsecured waters, then, yes, that’d be pretty slack.

Makes me wonder if you need to install floating booms around these ships to create distance – but then again, where do you stop ?

These naval drones tend to be built to be very low profile, or even semi-submersible with just the communications antennae and cameras above the waterline. Same sort of shapes that drug smugglers have been using for decades. The are deliberately designed to be hard to see at sea.

party_pants said:

These naval drones tend to be built to be very low profile, or even semi-submersible with just the communications antennae and cameras above the waterline. Same sort of shapes that drug smugglers have been using for decades. The are deliberately designed to be hard to see at sea.

Yeah, it’s not like they’re painted in fluoro colours and showing navigation lights.

If I were Russia I’d create a no go zone like the british in the Falklands war 200 miles or similar.

If other militaries go into the exclusion zone they just get sunk or shot out of the sky. US/ UK forces were directing these boats into the ships – so you’d want to shoot these things down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3_7lk6ofRg

Link

TVP World

shot of ship hit by drone under tow into port. plus other stuff.

A Russian tanker is damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kerch Strait briefly halting traffic on the strategic bridge linking Crimea to Russia, Russian maritime officials say.

Michael V said:

Bloody!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-08/russia-unveils-history-textbooks-praising-ukraine-offensive/102701658

Good to see that they have joined the found weapons of mass destruction justifying a celebrated regime change club¡

Putin chokes on the Ukrainian ‘porcupine’

By David Ignatius
Columnist

As the Ukrainian military grinds forward in a costly summer offensive that hasn’t yet produced a breakthrough, there’s a palpable frustration in Kyiv and in Washington. Maybe it’s a useful moment to recall one of Ukraine’s hidden strengths. Biden administration officials called it the “porcupine strategy.”

Here’s how I paraphrased one White House official’s description of the challenge ahead in January 2022, a month before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale attack: “How can the United States and its allies help Ukraine become a porcupine — a prickly, stubborn nation that would be hard for an invading Russian army to digest?”

Whatever else you might say about the Ukraine war, that strategy has worked. Ukraine has proved utterly indigestible for the Russian military. Putin’s assault on Kyiv in the early months was a disastrous failure. The porcupine pushed the invaders back last year in Kharkiv and Kherson. And now, kilometer by kilometer, Ukraine is slowly advancing in the south and east.

“We adopted a strategy to make it as challenging as possible for Russia” if it invaded, explained Jon Finer, the deputy national security adviser. And it worked: Russia didn’t swallow Ukraine, and it probably never will.

Ukraine’s goal has now shifted from blocking the invaders to driving them out. But breaching Russian minefields has been agonizingly difficult — and costly in lives and equipment. Ukraine might yet achieve its goal of cutting the Russian corridor to Crimea this year and putting that prize at risk. But in just three months, October’s mud is likely to stall Ukraine’s advance.

Putin still seems to believe he can exhaust Ukraine. Perhaps he imagines that if his battered army holds on, a pliant Donald Trump will return to the White House and give him what he wants. But Putin must contend with what I’d call the “three Ps” — a propaganda battle that he’s losing; a partisan warfare campaign inside territories Russia claims to have annexed; and growing political fragmentation at home.

“‘Waiting us out’ may be a bad bet on their part,” argues one senior administration official. I think he’s right.

On the propaganda front, the fence-sitters of the Global South appear to be leaning toward Ukraine. Representatives of Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey met this past weekend in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to hear Ukrainian officials outline a peace proposal that centers on full withdrawal of Russian forces. A Chinese representative attended the gathering, which Ukraine’s foreign minister called a “breakthrough” and “a historic victory.”

Russia’s response has been denial: Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov sputtered that the “futile” meeting was “doomed to failure.”

Let’s turn to partisan warfare, and Ukraine’s armed resistance to Russia’s attempts to swallow the four regions it “annexed” last year. Social media reports describe a string of guerrilla attacks this year. Take the Zaporizhzhia region that borders the Sea of Azov: Russian officials or collaborators there were hit by two car bombs in January; an IED in February; a car bomb in March; a bomb in April; and two car bombs, a blown railway line and a sniper attack in June.

Partisans in occupied Crimea reportedly blew up a gas pipeline in March and attacked railway lines in May and June and an ammunition dump in July. It’s a dirty war. Fighters are said to have attacked one collaborator while he was in a barber shop in Luhansk; they reportedly poisoned Russian officers who were celebrating Russian Navy Day in Mariupol, killing two and wounding 15.

Russia has cruelly tried to suppress resistance in these regions — transporting children from the occupied areas to Russia and forcing residents to obtain Russian passports for medical care. These ghastly tactics are reminiscent of Joseph Stalin’s attempts to transfer populations and redraw borders. But the result now for Russia will probably be to create more indigestible lumps of opposition.

Putin might imagine he can turn Ukraine into another “frozen conflict” if he drags the fighting on. But a generation of Ukrainians is learning to hate Russians, and the guerrilla-style combat will continue. Ukraine’s goal “is to put the lie to Russia’s claim of annexation and show how costly this will be,” says the senior U.S. official.

Finally, Putin faces increasing problems at home because of the convulsions created by his misadventure in Ukraine. A brilliant summary of Russia’s growing political disarray was published in Foreign Affairs this week by Tatiana Stanovaya, a well-connected analyst with the Carnegie Russian Center.

“The war has begun to change Russia, and profound internal shifts are likely underway — in Putin’s regime, in the elites’ perception of Putin, and in the public’s attitude toward the war,” she writes.

A fragmenting, demoralized Russia is a devil’s playground. In their disorientation, Russians seek order and victory. According to internal polls cited by Stanovaya, Russians support Putin more strongly than before the war, they’re angrier at the West and they express strong support for their troops. Russia’s internal disarray poses a severe dilemma for Putin, but it’s very dangerous for the West, too.

The simple fact is that Russia is choking on Ukraine. The porcupine won’t get any easier to swallow, no matter how long the war lasts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/08/putin-russia-ukraine-war-strategy/?

Eastern Anti-Corruption Purges Violate Human Rights

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-12/ukraine-president-fires-officials-in-bid-to-stop-corruption/102722410

Ukraine retakes village: Kyiv said Wednesday its forces have liberated the village of Urozhaine in the eastern Donetsk region, where fierce battles have taken place in recent days. Urozhaine, located about 100 kilometers southwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk city, lies near the village of Staromaiorske, which Ukrainian soldiers recaptured about two weeks ago.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-16-23/h_e1bba9ea2987e58c27fba6f73e93be13

Running out of money: Vladimir Putin’s moment of truth has arrived

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
August 17, 2023 — 11.14am

The curse of August has struck again in Russia. The long-awaited currency crisis has finally hit as a collapse in usable energy revenues bleeds the Kremlin dry, and the slow damage of G7 sanctions eats away at the country’s economic foundations.

The rouble has fallen by 40 per cent since November, when it became clear what Russia was up against: an unbroken Ukraine able to pack a military punch; a West that was refusing to fracture; and an oil price cap that the Kremlin never thought would happen.

The pace of devaluation has quickened since the Prigozhin mutiny. Over the last week, the rouble has broken its mooring, briefly blowing through the psychological line of 100 to the dollar. The central bank raised interest rates to 12 per cent in an emergency move on Tuesday but this has so far failed to restore confidence.

Russia now faces a drastic tightening of financial conditions and a currency slide at at the same time.

Vladimir Putin can no longer maintain his line that the exchange rate slide is a calibrated and deliberate move in budget management. He touted rouble strength all last year as proof of Russia’s economic invulnerability.

“They are talking about it in every kitchen in Russia,” said financial journalist Orlon Skim.

Tim Ash from Chatham House said the devaluation is an internal propaganda disaster and “the clearest signal yet that the oil price cap and sanctions are working”.

Russia is running out of usable hard currency, to the point where Aeroflot has been landing at least nine of its Boeing and Airbus passenger jets with their brakes switched off because the airline is struggling to obtain parts at viable cost, and can no longer service its fleet in the West.

Pilots have to rely on reverse-thrust alone. A leaked memo obtained by Aviatorschina warned them of the risk of “overrunning the runway” in wet weather. This is a country in dire straits. Only in the magical world of Russian statistics did the economy grow 4.9 per cent in the second quarter, year-on-year.

Russia can, of course, buy anything it really needs on the global black market, mostly funnelled through Turkey, Dubai, or central Asia. German exports to Kazakhstan are up 105 per cent over the last year.

Russia has switched to Chinese semiconductors – as well as cannibalising dishwashers and fridges – but these are mostly workhouse chips, too low-tech for advanced warfare. It would take years to configure Chinese circuits for Russia’s existing industrial system, and so far Chinese companies have been strikingly reluctant to do so.

The weapons captured or shot down in Ukraine overwhelmingly contain US chips acquired before the war. Russia has an elaborate smuggling network to obtain replacements but this costs hard currency. That is what Putin no longer has.

Russia enjoyed a revenue bonanza last year from booming energy, metal, and grain prices. Commodity revenues pushed the current account surplus to 20 per cent of GDP, allowing Putin to finance the war and uphold the social welfare contract at the same time.

That surplus has largely evaporated. Ash said Russian energy sales to Europe have dropped to €2 billion ($3.4 billion) a month from €12 billion a month last year. Gazprom has essentially lost its €60 billion annual gas market in Europe forever. The gas pipelines from the west Siberian fields cannot be switched to China without vast investment.

Putin is still selling near record volumes of oil, as intended under the sanctions regime. The point of the $US60 oil cap is to keep the world economy well-supplied with crude, while depriving the Kremlin of a slice of the earnings.

Either Putin ships his oil though the Western-controlled nexus of tankers and insurance, and accepts the price cap; or he ships it in his own shadow fleet with complex and costly refuelling off Gibraltar or the Greek islands. He loses $US8 to $US10 a barrel sending the oil halfway around the world to Asia. The Indians and the Chinese know he is a distressed seller and are driving a hard bargain.

The International Energy Agency says the discount on Russian Urals crude has narrowed. The price averaged $US64 in July but that is still significantly lower than Brent near $US80 at that time. How much of that reaches Russia after transport costs and fees for middlemen is an open question.

To the extent that we can believe any Russian data at this stage, Kremlin revenues collapsed by 47 per cent in the first half of the year. The budget deficit is running at an annualised pace of $US50 billion ($77.5 billion) even on the official figures. The Kremlin cannot borrow abroad and lacks a deep and liquid bond market at home.

Some $US330 billion of foreign exchange reserves are frozen under G7 sanctions. The remaining $US260 billion are not all liquid or usable. The central bank estimates that $US253 billion of capital has left the country since the war began.

The Kremlin is now raiding private companies, forcing them to pay “voluntary” contributions to the war effort. The founders of Yandex, Russia’s “Google”, the telecom company Vimpelcom, and the digital bank Tinkoff have all been driven into exile, effectively expropriated or coerced into selling cheaply.

Putin is seizing the assets of Western companies. Danone, Carlsberg, Forum, and Uniper, have all been targeted, partly in order to distribute patronage to loyalists and shore up the regime. Those that leave have to sell their subsidiaries at a minimum discount of 50 per cent, and then pay a 10 per cent exit tax. It cost BP $US24 billion to write off its 20 per cent holding of Rosneft.

Covering the budget shortfall by this sort of scavenging has reached its limits. The falling rouble flatters the fiscal deficit because it raises the nominal rouble revenues from oil exports, but that effect is quickly overwhelmed by the inflationary sting in the tail.

Russia enjoyed a revenue bonanza last year from booming energy, metal, and grain prices but that surplus has largely evaporated.
Russia enjoyed a revenue bonanza last year from booming energy, metal, and grain prices but that surplus has largely evaporated. CREDIT:AP

The treasury has had to dip into the national welfare fund, down $US16 billion since May to $US146 billion, and not all of that is liquid. The Kremlin has suspended the budget rule requiring that a share of energy revenues is salted away in foreign assets. This move failed to stabilise the rouble.

Russia is now caught in a classic emerging market crisis. The more that Putin’s circle tries to scapegoat central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, the technocrat holding Russia’s finances together, the greater the likelihood of igniting an inflation-devaluation spiral, with no possibility of an IMF bail-out when it all goes wrong.

This may not yet be the final chapter for Putin but the rouble crisis rebuts the widely repeated claim that time works to his advantage in Ukraine. He is running out of plunder to buy off the hard-bitten business interests and private militias that underpin his regime.

A reader of this newsletter suggested that the West should lift all sanctions against Russian oligarchs instead of hounding them, except for those actively aiding the war. They should be encouraged to bring as much money as possible to Zurich, London, or New York, safe in the knowledge that it will not be frozen.

I agree. The imperative is to split the Russian elite and quicken capital flight. A run on the rouble is the financial equivalent of Storm Shadow missiles.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/money-crisis-vladimir-putin-s-moment-of-truth-has-arrived-20230816-p5dwv7.html?

Witty Rejoinder said:

Russia is running out of usable hard currency, to the point where Aeroflot has been landing at least nine of its Boeing and Airbus passenger jets with their brakes switched off because the airline is struggling to obtain parts at viable cost, and can no longer service its fleet in the West.

Pilots have to rely on reverse-thrust alone. A leaked memo obtained by Aviatorschina warned them of the risk of “overrunning the runway” in wet weather. This is a country in dire straits. Only in the magical world of Russian statistics did the economy grow 4.9 per cent in the second quarter, year-on-year.

Can’t be right, reverse thrust only will not stop the plane before the end of the runway, nor are the reversers good enough to control the plane accurately enough when parking.

Well that’s for the 747’s at least, as we tried it a number of times in the simulator, and trying to stop with reverse only had us going off the end of a 4 km long runway at about 60 kts. But to be fair, once the plane sinks into the soft ground past the end of the runway they’ll stop. A bit of a bother getting them going again though.

enters Wookie mode

What they needs is 10,000 special forces led paratroopers dropped behind Russia’s lines

…

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won’t reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

Melitopol is critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is at the intersection of two important highways and a railroad line that allow Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fall’s push through the Kharkiv region.

But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against Russia’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.

But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.

Kyiv has recently dedicated more reserves to the front, including Stryker and Challenger units, but has yet to break through Russia’s main defensive line.

The path to Melitopol is an extremely challenging one, and even recapturing closer cities such as Tokmak will be difficult, said Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he said. “It’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.”

The bleak outlook, briefed to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, has already prompted a blame game inside closed-door meetings. Some Republicans are now balking at President Biden’s request for an additional $20.6 billion in Ukraine aid given the offensive’s modest results. Other Republicans and, to a lesser extent, hawkish Democrats have faulted the administration for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine sooner.

U.S. officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems such as ATACMS would have resulted in a different outcome. “The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,” a senior administration official said.

In an interview this week, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States has been clear about the difficult task facing Ukraine.

“I had said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long, it’s going to be bloody it’s going to be slow,” he told The Post. “And that’s exactly what it is: long, bloody and slow, and it’s a very, very difficult fight.”

While not achieving its objectives, he noted Kyiv’s success in degrading Russian forces. “The Russians are in pretty rough shape,” he said. “They’ve suffered a huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great.”

U.S. officials said the Pentagon recommended multiple times that Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was Kyiv’s call to make given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday acknowledged the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive but said Kyiv would not stop fighting until all its land is retaken. “We don’t care how long it takes,” he told the news agency Agence France-Presse.

He encouraged critics of the offensive to “go and join the foreign legion” if they wanted faster results. “It’s easy to say that you want everything to be faster when you are not there,” he said.

Ukrainian officials have said privately that timing depends on how quickly forces can penetrate the minefields — a difficult process that has strained the military’s mine-clearing resources across a wide swath of territory.

Analysts say the challenges Ukraine has faced are multifaceted, but nearly all agree that Russia surpassed expectations when it comes to its proficiency in defending occupied territory.

“The most deterministic factor of how this offensive has gone thus far is the quality of Russian defenses,” said Lee, noting Russia’s use of trenches, mines and aviation. “They had a lot of time and they prepared them very well … and made it very difficult for Ukraine to advance.” committed its forces and in which areas.

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The Ukrainians have for months poured tremendous resources into Bakhmut, including soldiers, ammunition and time, but they have lost control of the city and have made only modest gains in capturing territory around it. And while the close-in, trench-line fighting is different in Bakhmut from the problem of mines in the south, the focus has left some in the Biden administration concerned that overcommitting in the east may have eroded the potency of the counteroffensive in the south.

The new intelligence assessment aligns with a secret U.S. forecast from February indicating that shortfalls in equipment and force strength may mean that the counteroffensive will fall “well short” of Ukraine’s goal to sever the land bridge to Crimea by August. The assessment, detailed in a classified document leaked onto the social media app Discord, identified Melitopol or Mariupol as the objectives “to deny Russian overland access to Crimea.”

U.S. officials said Washington was still open to Kyiv surprising skeptics and overcoming the odds. One defense official said it is possible that Ukraine could buck historical norms and continue the counteroffensive through the winter, when everything including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition becomes much more difficult.

But that would rely on several important factors, such as the amount of rest troops need after a hard fighting season. It would also depend on how much specialized equipment and cold-weather clothing they have on hand, the defense official said. But Moscow may also outperform during winter military operations.

“Russians are known to be capable of fighting in cold weather,” the official said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/?

LOL

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-general-armageddon-sergei-surovikin-removed-military-leadership-under-house-arrest-reports/

So.

An “abnormal situation” has struck Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft as it was preparing to transfer to its pre-landing orbit, Russia’s national space agency Roskosmos says.

SCIENCE said:

So.

An “abnormal situation” has struck Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft as it was preparing to transfer to its pre-landing orbit, Russia’s national space agency Roskosmos says.

It’ll be interesting to see how they blame this on the Ukes.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-continues-to-target-moscow-with-drone-strikes-forcing-the-city-to-shut-down-its-airports/ar-AA1fuUqu

Ukraine continues to target Moscow with drone strikes, forcing the city to shut down its airports

monkey skipper said:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-continues-to-target-moscow-with-drone-strikes-forcing-the-city-to-shut-down-its-airports/ar-AA1fuUqu

Ukraine continues to target Moscow with drone strikes, forcing the city to shut down its airports

Excellent.

monkey skipper said:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-continues-to-target-moscow-with-drone-strikes-forcing-the-city-to-shut-down-its-airports/ar-AA1fuUqu

Ukraine continues to target Moscow with drone strikes, forcing the city to shut down its airports

Gosh, it’s almost like invading another country on bullshit premises might have…well, consequences?

(Other countries might do well to take note.)

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

So.

An “abnormal situation” has struck Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft as it was preparing to transfer to its pre-landing orbit, Russia’s national space agency Roskosmos says.

It’ll be interesting to see how they blame this on the Ukes.

Deep mining¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-20/russia-luna-25-spacecraft-crashes-onto-moon/102753294

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

buffy said:

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

A terrorist attack and one aircraft was damaged.. the fire was put out quickly. Looks like a lot more fire than the Russians were willing to admit.

buffy said:

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

It seems to be quite a fair way from the Ukrainian border. It would be difficult for Ukrainian special service (or the like) to manage that I’d guess. Possible more likely the Russians messed something up and made fireworks.

Spiny Norman said:

buffy said:

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

It seems to be quite a fair way from the Ukrainian border. It would be difficult for Ukrainian special service (or the like) to manage that I’d guess. Possible more likely the Russians messed something up and made fireworks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggs5jZ3avzI

Link

Local partisans.

Bogsnorkler said:

Spiny Norman said:

buffy said:

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

It seems to be quite a fair way from the Ukrainian border. It would be difficult for Ukrainian special service (or the like) to manage that I’d guess. Possible more likely the Russians messed something up and made fireworks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggs5jZ3avzI

Link

Local partisans.

Seems these bombers were poorly built and maintained also

Bogsnorkler said:

Spiny Norman said:

buffy said:

I suppose this is the place to put this. Terrorist attack on a military base?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-supersonic-bomber/102759464

It seems to be quite a fair way from the Ukrainian border. It would be difficult for Ukrainian special service (or the like) to manage that I’d guess. Possible more likely the Russians messed something up and made fireworks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggs5jZ3avzI

Link

Local partisans.

I know the Russians are the bad guys as such, but I do quite like the Tupolev Tu-22M, they are a rather good looking machine I reckon.

Spiny Norman said:

Bogsnorkler said:

Spiny Norman said:

It seems to be quite a fair way from the Ukrainian border. It would be difficult for Ukrainian special service (or the like) to manage that I’d guess. Possible more likely the Russians messed something up and made fireworks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggs5jZ3avzI

Link

Local partisans.

I know the Russians are the bad guys as such, but I do quite like the Tupolev Tu-22M, they are a rather good looking machine I reckon.

Swing wing jets are sexy

Cymek said:

Spiny Norman said:

Bogsnorkler said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggs5jZ3avzI

Link

Local partisans.

I know the Russians are the bad guys as such, but I do quite like the Tupolev Tu-22M, they are a rather good looking machine I reckon.

Swing wing jets are sexy

Yeah!

Putin was halfway through his speech about just how much of a loss his “chef” and personal “friend” was, when he realised that his murder was scheduled for the next day.

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

dv said:

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

It is a thin line.

dv said:

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

It’s a problem. But, Kaliningrad’s garrisons and their equipment and stores have, reportedly, been severely depleted to feed the conflict i eastern UIkraine.

So, right now at least, Kaliningrad may not be the sturdy pillar of a narrow gateway that it might have been until recently.

captain_spalding said:

dv said:

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

It’s a problem. But, Kaliningrad’s garrisons and their equipment and stores have, reportedly, been severely depleted to feed the conflict i eastern UIkraine.

So, right now at least, Kaliningrad may not be the sturdy pillar of a narrow gateway that it might have been until recently.

At least we haven’t seen satellite footage of many trucks and trains heading there packed to the hilt with weaponry.

captain_spalding said:

dv said:

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

It’s a problem. But, Kaliningrad’s garrisons and their equipment and stores have, reportedly, been severely depleted to feed the conflict i eastern UIkraine.

So, right now at least, Kaliningrad may not be the sturdy pillar of a narrow gateway that it might have been until recently.

The first sign of trouble from the Russians against NATO, NATO will take Kaliningrad. I’m sure there are already several plans drawn up for it in NATO HQ.

party_pants said:

captain_spalding said:

dv said:

https://youtu.be/sbBLwbLya7Q?si=v-8ORTbUlS7FZj6M

One of NATO’S weakpoints: The Suwalki Gap

It’s a problem. But, Kaliningrad’s garrisons and their equipment and stores have, reportedly, been severely depleted to feed the conflict i eastern UIkraine.

So, right now at least, Kaliningrad may not be the sturdy pillar of a narrow gateway that it might have been until recently.

The first sign of trouble from the Russians against NATO, NATO will take Kaliningrad. I’m sure there are already several plans drawn up for it in NATO HQ.

Too bloody right!

“Coming soon! The US fleet in the Black Sea!”

“The USA is going to adopt the Black Sea Security Act of 2023, which can have a positive effect on strengthening Ukraine’s national security and ensure NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.”

Kingy said:

“Coming soon! The US fleet in the Black Sea!”

“The USA is going to adopt the Black Sea Security Act of 2023, which can have a positive effect on strengthening Ukraine’s national security and ensure NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.”

Isn’t there some convention on the transit of the Turkish straits by foreign military vessels into the Black Sea…? Bt foreign I mean belonging to countries which don’t have any Black Sea coastline. It would need Turkey’s permission, and would need them to break the convention.

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

“Coming soon! The US fleet in the Black Sea!”

“The USA is going to adopt the Black Sea Security Act of 2023, which can have a positive effect on strengthening Ukraine’s national security and ensure NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.”

Isn’t there some convention on the transit of the Turkish straits by foreign military vessels into the Black Sea…? Bt foreign I mean belonging to countries which don’t have any Black Sea coastline. It would need Turkey’s permission, and would need them to break the convention.

Yes. I am sure this is the case.

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

“Coming soon! The US fleet in the Black Sea!”

“The USA is going to adopt the Black Sea Security Act of 2023, which can have a positive effect on strengthening Ukraine’s national security and ensure NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.”

Isn’t there some convention on the transit of the Turkish straits by foreign military vessels into the Black Sea…? Bt foreign I mean belonging to countries which don’t have any Black Sea coastline. It would need Turkey’s permission, and would need them to break the convention.

IIRC all transit needs Turkey and only Turkey’s permission.

$500 Ukrainian FPV drone killed a T-90 tank that was fully crewed, in combat.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1700895963080966186

By comparison, the price of a FGM-148 Javelin missile ranges from $200,000 to $250,000, depending on purchase quantities.

And FPV drones are indirect fire weapons that outrange a Javelin.

The world has changed.

And there are a lot of Western military officers & military procurement officials who are in very deep dark denial of this strange new reality we now live in.

Kingy said:

$500 Ukrainian FPV drone killed a T-90 tank that was fully crewed, in combat.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1700895963080966186

By comparison, the price of a FGM-148 Javelin missile ranges from $200,000 to $250,000, depending on purchase quantities.

And FPV drones are indirect fire weapons that outrange a Javelin.

The world has changed.

And there are a lot of Western military officers & military procurement officials who are in very deep dark denial of this strange new reality we now live in.

I say good on the Ukrainians.

Don’t know about the last bit though. I reckons there would be plenty arguing strongly for greater adoption of drone technology. Especially in what can be mass-produced cheaply in their own country.

Ukraine hits Sevastopol shipyard again, another two russian warships hit, that’s 4 in two days.

Interesting that since putins full scale invasion of Ukraine including with the worlds second largest navy, Ukraine are winning the naval war in the Black Sea and they don’t even have a warship.

Kingy said:

Ukraine hits Sevastopol shipyard again, another two russian warships hit, that’s 4 in two days.

Interesting that since putins full scale invasion of Ukraine including with the worlds second largest navy, Ukraine are winning the naval war in the Black Sea and they don’t even have a warship.

yeah but Ukraine has lost over 10 million armed forces personnel and an almost infinite number of leopard and challenger tanks.

Your regular reminded that every death and injury in this war is the fault of Putin and Russia. All of this would have been avoided if they’d just decided to do something other than invade a neighbouring country again.

Russia accidentally shell its own troops for two hours mistaking them for Ukranian soldiers

https://youtu.be/q8C0AqIMV2Q

The arrival of US soldiers for a peacekeeper training exercise in Armenia has rankled the Russian government, which has for decades acted as the sole security guarantor for the former Soviet republic. The 10-day “Eagle Partner” exercise, which began Monday, involves 85 US and 175 Armenian soldiers and aims to prepare the Armenians to take part in international peacekeeping missions.

The exercise, while small in scale, is the latest in a series of what Russia’s foreign ministry has deemed “unfriendly actions” taken by its traditional ally.

Armenia recently sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time, and its parliament is set to ratify the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute – meaning it would be obliged to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he were to set foot in the country, which Russia has long viewed as its own backyard.

Armenia’s flirtation with new international partners has been spurred by its frustration that Russia has been unable or unwilling to defend it against what it sees as aggression from neighboring Azerbaijan, and has raised questions about Russia’s ability to retain its hold on countries and conflicts across the former Soviet empire.

Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan said his country was beginning to taste the “bitter fruits” of the “strategic mistake” of trusting Russia with near-exclusive responsibility for his country’s defense.

“Armenia’s security architecture 99.999% was linked to Russia,” he told Italian newspaper La Repubblica earlier this month. “But today we see that Russia itself is in need of weapons… Even if it wishes so, the Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia’s needs.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/17/world/armenia-russia-kremlin-us-intl/index.html

From TwitX:

I have unofficial confirmation from 🇺🇦 sources: Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Viktor #Sokolov was killed in today’s strike in #Sevastopol.
Sokolov personally ordered missile strikes on civilian targets in #Ukraine & would’ve been indicted as a war criminal had he survived.

Kingy said:

From TwitX:

I have unofficial confirmation from 🇺🇦 sources: Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Viktor #Sokolov was killed in today’s strike in #Sevastopol.
Sokolov personally ordered missile strikes on civilian targets in #Ukraine & would’ve been indicted as a war criminal had he survived.

Goodo.

This is a change:

Unmanned combat vehicle story Link

The Ukrainian Army is testing the Ironclad unmanned combat robot in live operations. The versatile robotic platform assists forces by storming positions, recon, and fire support at 20km/h speed.

Kingy said:

This is a change:

Unmanned combat vehicle story Link

The Ukrainian Army is testing the Ironclad unmanned combat robot in live operations. The versatile robotic platform assists forces by storming positions, recon, and fire support at 20km/h speed.

Good one.

Russia has taken thousands of Ukrainian kids. Some don’t want to go home
Families search in vain through a maze of foster homes and holiday camps

Sep 11th 2023

By Wendell Steavenson

Kostya Ten (pictured above) was 13 years old when Russian troops entered his village of Kosatske on the banks of the Dnieper in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. He was a tearaway kid from a complicated family. His mother died when he was tiny; his father, who was ethnically Korean, used to grow watermelons but was bedridden following a stroke. He had five older sisters and was treated as the baby of the family. At the age of 11, Kostya began running around with a gang of older boys who stole scrap metal. At first, he served as a lookout. Then they told him to nick some metal from his own home, promising to split the proceeds with him. Instead, they kept the money for themselves.

For two weeks after the full-scale invasion, Kostya and his family slept in the basement of their house. Then the Russian soldiers arrived and set up checkpoints. All the shops were looted and helicopters whirred overhead – they were “so cool”, said Kostya. He got talking to the occupying soldiers, many of whom were Ukrainians from Donetsk and Luhansk, eastern regions of Ukraine where Russia backed a secessionist takeover in 2014.

“Are you afraid?” a few of the friendlier soldiers asked Kostya. They were not much more than teenagers themselves. Kostya was hesitant. “Don’t be afraid,” they said and told him they had been forced into the army. They bought biscuits for the local kids and sometimes they let them hold their guns. “One showed me how to load it,” said Kostya. “The gun was really heavy, I almost fell over.”

One night, Russian soldiers banged on the door of Kostya’s house. His sisters refused to answer it. They noticed that their brother was mysteriously absent, not for the first time. Had he been talking to the soldiers, like some of the neighbours said? Had he led them to their house? The next day, Kostya found everyone gone.

His eldest sister Masha, who lived in the house with her young son, was scared – her boyfriend was in the Ukrainian army. She led the family to a nearby town, also in Russian-occupied territory.

Maybe, Masha had thought, it would be better if her brother stayed in Kosatske. She arranged for a neighbour, whom they called Auntie Valya, to look after him. Valya was a practical woman who did not suffer fools. She often helped the family, tending their kitchen garden and offering advice on how to raise five daughters and a wayward son. “A very interesting boy,” said Valya of Kostya, “but…he always wanted to make money on one thing or another.” In wartime, she said, his entrepreneurial spirit led him astray. “He would tell on the neighbours for money – say that they had grenades or something and they would be searched and beaten.”

The local school was closed because most of the teachers had left the village. Kostya hung out with his friends, went fishing and grumbled about having to chop wood for Valya. He was, like many boys in war zones, fascinated by weapons. When a rocket fell into a neighbour’s garden, he and his friends watched the Russian sappers dismantle it. One night partisans burnt a Russian armoured personnel carrier. “Afterwards we crawled inside and I was surprised how small and cramped it was,” he said.

At the beginning of summer, the Russian occupiers offered local teenagers places at holiday camps in Crimea and southern Russia. Kostya’s father had never let him go to summer camp. Valya had doubts about sending him but thought that some structure might do him good. Kostya went to a camp in Krasnodar in the south of Russia for two weeks in June 2022. He loved it: there was painting, volleyball, roller-skating, competitions with prizes. Kostya had his face painted and got transfer tattoos. His only regret was that “there weren’t any motorcycles.”

Children from all over occupied Ukraine attended the camp. One group of kids had t-shirts with pictures of Lenin and Stalin; another group wore black hats like gangsters. Some kids raised a Ukrainian flag at the disco one evening, and the camp guards ordered them to get rid of it.

Kostya’s best friend at the camp was Nikita, a boy from Kherson. He gave Kostya a flag. On it was the Russian slogan, “We don’t abandon our own”, and the pro-war “Z” insignia. Kostya said he threw it away. Generally, though, he tended to keep his head down.

Over the course of the summer, Kostya’s family crossed the front line to reach unoccupied Ukrainian territory. After Kostya returned from the camp to Valya’s house, communication with his father and sisters grew increasingly intermittent. Kostya didn’t have his own mobile phone and, when the telephone network was destroyed in the autumn fighting, he lost all contact with them.

In August 2022 Ukraine started a counter-offensive to retake the city of Kherson and the western bank of the Dnieper. Russian soldiers were billeted at Kostya’s family home and the bombardments grew more intense. By October the Russian authorities were encouraging people to leave. Buses were arranged to take children to camps in Krasnodar. Kostya was keen to go back; Valya, worried for his safety, relented. He packed a small bag of clothes, his army knife, four prized pieces from his shrapnel collection, a bullet casing that a Russian soldier had given him and a pile of documents he found in the safe at his house. They included his birth certificate and vaccination records, his mother’s death certificate and a copy of his father’s passport.

Around one in five Ukrainian children is living under Russian control, either in occupied areas or Russia itself. No one knows how many have been taken to Russia since the war began. In February researchers at Yale University counted over 6,000 Ukrainian children in 43 institutions across Russia (they suspect the real number is much higher).

The Ukrainians say the children have been kidnapped. Russia maintains that it is sheltering children from the war, just as it has taken in hundreds of thousands of adult Ukrainian refugees. But Russia has refused to provide information about the Ukrainian children it harbours or work with a neutral intermediary, such at the International Committee of the Red Cross, to register and repatriate them. Mykola Kuleba of Save Ukraine, a Ukrainian ngo that helps families bring their children home, said that Russia plans to “absorb Ukrainian children and to re-educate them, indoctrinate them, brainwash them”.

The children have been taken under different circumstances. Some were left parentless by the fighting or separated from family members who were detained as they fled east into Russian-held territory. Others were transferred from children’s homes in occupied areas: some of these are orphans; some have parents or relatives unable to care for them. One orphanage director in Kherson hid children with local families to stop the Russians from taking them away. In the Kharkiv region, schoolchildren were forced onto evacuation buses as the front line moved closer. There are also 2,000 or so children whose hometowns were retaken by Ukraine last year while they were away at holiday camps in Russia and Crimea, and who have been unable to cross the front line.

Whatever the Kremlin says, it is clear that the Russian government is orchestrating a policy of child deportation. Regional authorities are given funding to take in Ukrainian children. Russian tv broadcasts footage of Ukrainian teenagers in holiday camps undergoing “rehabilitation” and “military and patriotic training” – singing the Russian national anthem, clambering over obstacle courses and learning how to shoot on firing ranges. On March 17th the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued arrest warrants for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, his commissioner for children’s rights, alleging that they were responsible for the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.

In May 2022 Russia simplified the process for Ukrainian children to get Russian citizenship. Once they have a Russian passport, Ukrainian children can be adopted by Russian families and their names changed. Then it becomes nearly impossible for Ukrainian relatives or authorities to trace their children or legally return them to Ukraine. Lvova-Belova has herself adopted an orphaned teenager from Mariupol. “He admits he was yearning for the house in which he grew up, his friends and his hometown,” she wrote on Telegram last August. “He was not familiar with the traditions of Orthodox Christianity. He has not seen Russian films and books. And with younger children, he doesn’t have a common language. We are finding ways to compromise and learn to trust each other.”

Kostya took a bus back to camp in Krasnodar. It was piled with luggage and full of families – probably those who had worked in some way with the Russians. No one used the word “evacuation”. Excited though he was about returning to camp, Kostya also worried about events back home. “I was always trying to find out what was happening in Kosatske,” he said. “I remembered my father and my family, and I fell asleep thinking of them.” Nikita, Kostya’s friend, travelled with him. They sat together on the train to Anapa, a resort town on the Russian coast of the Black Sea, scrolling through Telegram channels on Nikita’s phone, looking for news of the war, until a ticket inspector caught them. “That’s Ukrainian news! What are you doing looking at that?” he exclaimed. They switched the phone off.

The children were taken to a different holiday camp from the one they had stayed in before. This one wasn’t as much fun, but Kostya recognised a number of the kids. After a few weeks, some of the children were moved from the camp to dormitories in a sports complex. On November 12th 2022 the Russians pulled out of the city of Kherson. Kostya learned from the Russian news that the villages on the west bank of the Dnieper, including Kosatske, had been retaken by Ukrainian forces, but didn’t know whether to believe it or not.

Nikita’s mother arrived in Krasnodar. She was put up in a flat and given the standard Russian handout for Ukrainian refugees of 10,000 roubles (about $100). Kostya watched as mothers came to get their children; some, like Nikita’s, opted to settle in Russia, where they were given free accommodation and a monthly stipend.

After a few weeks, Kostya was moved to a hotel in Anapa called the Marina. By that stage, he was one of only a handful of children who hadn’t been reunited with their parents. The counsellors told him that if his family didn’t fetch him he would probably be sent to a children’s home. He began to worry, since he had no way to contact his sisters and father and didn’t even know where they were.

In Anapa Kostya was placed in one school, then another, never settling. He said he asked one of his teachers why Russia had attacked Ukraine. “The teacher said, ‘I can’t answer that question, I’m not Putin’s secretary.’” He often felt under threat and isolated: his precious army knife was stolen from his hotel room and friends told him he would end up being adopted by drug addicts. Eventually, one of the cleaning ladies gave him her grandson’s old phone. Just before new year he found his sister Katya through social media and sent her a message. “You have to come and get me,” he wrote. “They are going to place me with a foster family.”

Ukrainian parents trying to get their children back find the process stressful and confusing. Russian authorities don’t provide any lists of children and there is no standard procedure to follow. Teenagers are able to use social media to get in contact with relatives and friends in Ukraine. Younger children, who are sent to live with foster families, are more difficult to trace. Russian bureaucrats can be corrupt and obtuse, and the ease with which families are reunited varies wildly depending on who is handling the case. Sometimes parents are required to collect their child in person and the prospect of entering enemy territory is frightening. If children used to live with their grandparents or other relatives, documents proving legal guardianship must be provided and translated into Russian. Sometimes Russian social services claim it is not in the best interests of the child to return to Ukraine.

Kuleba of Save Ukraine said it cost between $3,000 and $5,000 to rescue each child. Inevitably, cash lubricates matters. “It’s thanks to Russian corruption that we can find the children, because we can buy information and we can buy people who can do things for us,” said Kuleba, almost laughing. He reckons that many Russian bureaucrats “think, ‘Maybe what’s happening is wrong, but it’s not my responsibility, I am just a staff member, I am just doing what I was told.’”

Ukrainian martial law dictates that most men can’t leave the country, so the quest to track down lost children is largely undertaken by women. The trip from Ukraine through Poland, Belarus and into Russia is expensive, long and potentially dangerous. In some instances mothers don’t have passports or struggle to arrange care for their other children. For those serving in government posts or the army, the risk of travelling to Russia may be too great. Those who do make it can be subject to invasive interviews with fsb agents before they can see their children. They are sometimes obliged to thank Russian authorities in front of tv cameras.

Many teenagers have returned with stories of harassment and intimidation. Some were told that their parents had signed away their parental rights and the Ukrainian authorities would punish them if they returned. Others said they were housed in prison-like barracks, slept on mattresses on the floor, and were assaulted and humiliated by their guardians. Kuleba told me that the Russians specifically targeted kids like Kostya from dysfunctional families. He acknowledged that troubled teens might not be totally forthcoming about their experiences in Russia. Some, he said, might cover up sexual assault; others might feel ashamed of having been complicit with the enemy.

After Kostya got in touch, his sisters began to communicate with the Russian authorities in Krasnodar about his return, though they found themselves overwhelmed with requests for documents. They wrestled with who should make the journey. Their father was too ill. Masha was now eight months pregnant. Tanya was working in Poland. Katya, just 18 years old, said she was too scared. Her twin Lisa volunteered to go.

Lisa left with a group of mothers on March 12th. She was nervous answering questions on the Belarus border. “They said I was lying and would have to take a lie detector. I was so scared and freaked out. I told them I felt sick and eventually they let me through.” On their journey, which took almost a week, the group stayed with sympathetic activists in Belarus and Russia. These networks are often organised through churches at serious risk to the participants.

Meanwhile, in Krasnodar, Kostya had been sent to a foster family. Yura and Lilia, his foster parents, had a nice house on the outskirts of town and two teenage children of their own. “They also had a really cool grey cat,” Kostya remembers. They had already taken in four Ukrainian teeangers and adopted two of them – orphaned brothers. “Even if they came back to Ukraine,” Kostya observed, “they would have nowhere to go.” Kostya found Yura “very positive easy going”. He told Kostya the family would be happy to adopt him too. Kostya was tempted to stay. “I was afraid to go back. Everyone said that everything was ruined in Ukraine, that a loaf of bread cost 500 hryvnia ($13.50), and there were bombs.”

Kostya’s foster parents worried people would call him a traitor, that he might be safer in Krasnodar. Maybe Kostya could bring his family here and his father could get treatment in hospital? They even offered to host them all. The local mayor, a friend of his foster parents, told him he would give the family a four-bedroom house. “I didn’t know if it was true or not,” said Kostya. Still, he found it hard to resist the offer. “I knew that my family couldn’t afford an apartment in Ukraine. Plus I had bad marks in school which meant I wouldn’t be able to have money for an apartment when I was grown-up either.”

When Lisa finally arrived, they hugged. “He had grown up,” Lisa remembered. “His face looked older and his voice had broken.” She also noticed that, after six months of Russian propaganda, “his opinions had all changed.” “It was effective,” she told me. The first thing he said was that he didn’t want to come home. “He liked where he was. It was near the sea.”

They had the weekend to make a final decision. Lisa went to the child-services bureau in Anapa with her documents, where officials tried to persuade her to bring the rest of the family to Russia. “I played the game,” Lisa told me. “I said, ‘It’s true that it’s dangerous . Well, let me go home and talk to my family about it.’”

Kostya turned the matter over in his mind. “It was such a hard decision,” he said. “I felt my nerves. The pressure felt physical.” He told me he understood that neither side was “snowy-white perfect”. He had seen the Russians using Ukrainian civilians for cover and neighbours change their allegiances depending on who was in charge. “I couldn’t decide,” he said. “I would look at my foster mother and think that I didn’t want to go. And then I would look at my sister and I wanted to go.” He and Lisa spent a lot of time walking around the park (“Lisa took a lot of selfies,” he said).

In the end it was Yura, his foster father, who convinced him that he needed to go back for the sake of Kostya’s own dad. “He told me I could always come back if I wanted.” So he and Lisa began the journey back to Ukraine. The border between Belarus, an ally of Russia, and Ukraine is formally closed, but there is one place where returning Ukrainians are able to cross on foot. “When I saw the Ukrainian flag,” said Kostya, “It was like the oxygen in the air was different. It was a feeling of freedom. Russia is beautiful and nice but your homeland is better.”

Kostya is now living with Masha and her two children in a town near the Russian border. I met him there in May and we talked over coffee and cake in a café. When the air-raid sirens sounded, the café closed and we went down to the basement shelter. Kostya tended to speak in torrents of detail, with the enthusiasm of a kid recounting a grand adventure; sometimes he was more circumspect and parried my questions with shrugs and ellipses. He was intelligent and charming: qualities that helped him survive his ordeal. He had a talent for making friends easily and the ability to tailor what he said to his audience.

Kostya has started karate lessons and set up a TikTok account where he posts patriotic Ukrainian videos. He remains in touch with his foster parents in Krasnodar. He also messages Nikita and his other friends from the children’s camps, most of whom are still living in Russia, but they avoid talking about the war. Once he posted a picture of himself in front of a destroyed building and one of his friends said it had probably been shelled by the Ukrainians. “She’s been brainwashed,” said Kostya.

I asked Mykola Kuleba what would happen to the many thousands of Ukrainian children taken to Russia, who had no parents or guardians, or who were too young even to know who they were. He took a long pause. “We don’t know,” he said, “And maybe we will never know.”

https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/09/11/russia-has-taken-thousands-of-ukrainian-kids-some-dont-want-to-go-home?

This is likely to have been mentioned previously, but I wonder if NATO and perhaps some other countries are trying to make the war last longer. The intent being to make Russia deplete its military assets until they are no longer a threat.
For sure they’d still have their ICBM & nuclear subs, but they would be seriously weakened for any future land wars for decades possibly.

Spiny Norman said:

This is likely to have been mentioned previously, but I wonder if NATO and perhaps some other countries are trying to make the war last longer. The intent being to make Russia deplete its military assets until they are no longer a threat.
For sure they’d still have their ICBM & nuclear subs, but they would be seriously weakened for any future land wars for decades possibly.

I don’t think it is in NATO’s interests to prolong the war. I think it is more in their interests for Ukraine to drive out Russia as quickly as possible, and inflict the maximum humiliation. Now that not happened of course, or won’t happen before the next winter, so the war will go on for another year. There is a danger of NATO falling short of ammo and equipment to supply to Ukraine, and for people within NATO to tire of an endless war and call for a peace settlement with concessions to Russia. If this happens Russia will be emboldened and will just start the next cycle of rebuilding before launching the next war for the next slice of territory.

party_pants said:

Spiny Norman said:

This is likely to have been mentioned previously, but I wonder if NATO and perhaps some other countries are trying to make the war last longer. The intent being to make Russia deplete its military assets until they are no longer a threat.
For sure they’d still have their ICBM & nuclear subs, but they would be seriously weakened for any future land wars for decades possibly.

I don’t think it is in NATO’s interests to prolong the war. I think it is more in their interests for Ukraine to drive out Russia as quickly as possible, and inflict the maximum humiliation. Now that not happened of course, or won’t happen before the next winter, so the war will go on for another year. There is a danger of NATO falling short of ammo and equipment to supply to Ukraine, and for people within NATO to tire of an endless war and call for a peace settlement with concessions to Russia. If this happens Russia will be emboldened and will just start the next cycle of rebuilding before launching the next war for the next slice of territory.

I wouldn’t disagree with any of that.

party_pants said:

Spiny Norman said:

This is likely to have been mentioned previously, but I wonder if NATO and perhaps some other countries are trying to make the war last longer. The intent being to make Russia deplete its military assets until they are no longer a threat.
For sure they’d still have their ICBM & nuclear subs, but they would be seriously weakened for any future land wars for decades possibly.

I don’t think it is in NATO’s interests to prolong the war. I think it is more in their interests for Ukraine to drive out Russia as quickly as possible, and inflict the maximum humiliation. Now that not happened of course, or won’t happen before the next winter, so the war will go on for another year. There is a danger of NATO falling short of ammo and equipment to supply to Ukraine, and for people within NATO to tire of an endless war and call for a peace settlement with concessions to Russia. If this happens Russia will be emboldened and will just start the next cycle of rebuilding before launching the next war for the next slice of territory.

This is the more likely.

I’m afraid someone is going to have to assassinate the ShitCan

Spiny Norman said:

This is likely to have been mentioned previously, but I wonder if NATO and perhaps some other countries are trying to make the war last longer. The intent being to make Russia deplete its military assets until they are no longer a threat.
For sure they’d still have their ICBM & nuclear subs, but they would be seriously weakened for any future land wars for decades possibly.

Okay so what are they doing to make the war last longer?

YEREVAN — Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has criticized the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for its refusal to support Armenia when it faced “Azerbaijan’s aggression.”

Speaking at a CSTO summit in Yerevan on November 23, Pashinian said it was “depressing that Armenia’s membership in the CSTO has failed to contain Azerbaijani aggression.” He said this had been “hugely damaging to the CSTO’s image both in our country and abroad.”

Armenia asked for military help in September after deadly clashes broke out between the two Caucasus neighbors, but the CSTO responded only by sending its secretary-general to the conflict zone and offering to set up a working group to analyse the situation.

Six countries — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia — comprise the CSTO, which was established in October 2002.

Pashinian said his country had supported CSTO member Kazakhstan immediately in early January when Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev asked CSTO troops to enter his country following unprecedented antigovernment protests.

“Armenia is ending its chairmanship of the CSTO. Although it is an anniversary year , for Armenia it was not an anniversary year at all. In the last two years, a CSTO member-state has been attacked by Azerbaijan at least three times, and actually, till now, we have not received any reaction from the CSTO regarding Azerbaijan’s aggression, which is a big blow to the CSTO’s image,” Pashinian said.

Armenia says dozens of square kilometers of its sovereign territory were seized by Azerbaijan during the military conflict between the two countries in May 2021, in November 2021, and in September this year.

Pashinian met later on November 23 with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Yerevan summit to discuss bilateral relations and regional issues.

At the start of the meeting Pashinian reportedly noted that the CSTO did not manage to reach a consensus on all issues on the agenda of the summit.

Pahinian said during the summit that he was not ready to sign draft documents regarding “joint measures on providing assistance to Armenia” that he said did not address Yerevan’s concerns regarding the CSTO’s political position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

“Under these conditions, the lack of a clear political assessment of the situation and the failure to make the above decision may not only mean the CSTO’s refusal from allied obligations but may also be interpreted by Azerbaijan as a green light from the CSTO for further aggression against Armenia,” Pashinian said at the summit.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the CSTO was a “necessary” organization whose services were “very much in demand” to resolve regional conflicts.

“It is very important that Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on a peace treaty,” said Peskov, who accompanied Putin to Yerevan. “This is our main task. And we all have to do our utmost to…make it happen,” he told reporters after the summit.

During his meeting with Putin, Pashinian raised the issue of honoring agreements that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached through the Russian president’s mediation.

“These are very important issues, which, of course, we need to discuss, just as we need to discuss the agenda, which, we hope, will lead to a lasting peace in our region,” Pashinian said.

Putin, as quoted by the Kremlin, highlighted the allied nature of Russian-Armenian relations that he said have “deep roots.”

In his remarks at the summit the Russian leader said that a meeting between the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan in Sochi, Russia, on October 31 and their joint statement afterward created “a good basis for future compromises” between Yerevan and Baku.

Putin said that only through consistent implementation of agreements on border delimitation, unblocking of transport links, and solutions to humanitarian problems will it be possible to achieve normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“We hope that this will eventually pave the way for a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku,” Putin said.

https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-csto-pashinian-criticism/32145663.html

31 Abrams have been delivered from the USA to Ukraine this week

“So when a Ukrainian tanker with the callsign “Kochevnik” ran into problems with his captured Russian T-72B3—problems local expertise couldn’t immediately solve—he called Uralvagonzavod(Russian) tech support. And incredibly, the help line actually helped.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/01/a-ukrainian-officers-captured-russian-tank-wasnt-working-so-he-called-tech-support-in-russia/?sh=574f1a5e13a8

Link

dv said:

31 Abrams have been delivered from the USA to Ukraine this week

Just in time for the rainy season and the mud – but I’m sure it will be fine, the russians wouldn’t have built tanks compatible for fighting in their neck of the woods and the Abram’s work anywhere

ABC News:

‘Mr Putin, in an interview with the China Media Group released on Monday, claimed Ukraine’s counteroffensive had achieved “no results so far, only massive losses”.’

That’s all there is about that.

I wonder whose losses he was referring to?

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Mr Putin, in an interview with the China Media Group released on Monday, claimed Ukraine’s counteroffensive had achieved “no results so far, only massive losses”.’

That’s all there is about that.

I wonder whose losses he was referring to?

Wookie will tell us Ukraine is losing 300,000 forces per week. He gets his information from Putin, via RT, I think.

Michael V said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Mr Putin, in an interview with the China Media Group released on Monday, claimed Ukraine’s counteroffensive had achieved “no results so far, only massive losses”.’

That’s all there is about that.

I wonder whose losses he was referring to?

Wookie will tell us Ukraine is losing 300,000 forces per week. He gets his information from Putin, via RT, I think.

Well he probably hasn’t read this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-17/ukraine-invasion-russia-600-days-renewed-fighting-key-areas/102985696

roughbarked said:

Michael V said:

captain_spalding said:

ABC News:

‘Mr Putin, in an interview with the China Media Group released on Monday, claimed Ukraine’s counteroffensive had achieved “no results so far, only massive losses”.’

That’s all there is about that.

I wonder whose losses he was referring to?

Wookie will tell us Ukraine is losing 300,000 forces per week. He gets his information from Putin, via RT, I think.

Well he probably hasn’t read this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-17/ukraine-invasion-russia-600-days-renewed-fighting-key-areas/102985696

probably just an iron dome shutdown of a hamas rocket

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

Michael V said:

Wookie will tell us Ukraine is losing 300,000 forces per week. He gets his information from Putin, via RT, I think.

Well he probably hasn’t read this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-17/ukraine-invasion-russia-600-days-renewed-fighting-key-areas/102985696

probably just an iron dome shutdown of a hamas rocket

That’s why the British army adopted steel helmets.

In the early battles of WW1, British soldiers wore cloth covered peaked caps. But, there was a lot of casualties from artillery. Not from explosions or shrapnel (although plenty of those, too) but from large chunks of earth and rocks thrown up by the explosions descending on the soldiery. Lots of head and shoulder injuries.

Doctors pushed for steel helmets to be issued, but top brass resisted for quite a while, claiming that it ‘would damage the morale of the men’. After helmets were eventually issued, earth/rock injuries declined significantly.

captain_spalding said:

Doctors pushed for steel helmets to be issued, but top brass resisted for quite a while, claiming that it ‘would damage the morale of the men’. After helmets were eventually issued, earth/rock injuries declined significantly.

It’s like an allegory of anthropology from stone age to bronze age to iron age¡

The Important Thing To Know About Bricks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/western-security-doubts-grow-amid-india-russia-oil-trade/103033716

Is That Their Many Faces Are

As such, he said efforts to draw Delhi closer to the West on defence and security matters – especially through the grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia known as the Quad – were likely to have hard limits.

Rectangular

SCIENCE said:

The Important Thing To Know About Bricks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/western-security-doubts-grow-amid-india-russia-oil-trade/103033716

Is That Their Many Faces Are

As such, he said efforts to draw Delhi closer to the West on defence and security matters – especially through the grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia known as the Quad – were likely to have hard limits.

Rectangular

Maybe we could persuade the russians and Indians by telling them about our “song lines “?

SCIENCE said:

The Important Thing To Know About Bricks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/western-security-doubts-grow-amid-india-russia-oil-trade/103033716

Is That Their Many Faces Are

As such, he said efforts to draw Delhi closer to the West on defence and security matters – especially through the grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia known as the Quad – were likely to have hard limits.

Rectangular

Fuck, how dare these shithole cuntries of colonised peoples

Professor Hall said seeing the world in such binary terms failed to grasp India’s own worldview. He said India, almost more than any other country on Earth, was “obsessed with this idea of strategic autonomy” and acting in its own interests.

act in their own interests¡

McConnell, Speaker Johnson headed for shutdown clash over Ukraine

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are headed for a showdown over emergency funding for Ukraine and funding the government beyond Thanksgiving, two tough issues that will test their ability to work together.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4280362-mcconnell-speaker-johnson-headed-for-shutdown-clash-over-ukraine/

SCIENCE said:

Cheap drones eh,

But one of the more shocking elements to its carefully-honed strike was the militant group’s fleet of drones. Many of them were commercial off-the-shelf drones, crudely rigged-up to carry explosives.

fuck CHINA¡

Fuck CHINA, the western NATO ally supplying weapons to Ukraine¡

Twitter, a black bomb with an orange tail is tossed on a cluster of IDF soldiers in the Gazan neighbourhood of Beit Hanoun. The ABC has reviewed the videos, but due to their graphic nature, has decided not to share them. The footage cannot be independently verified, but it suggests that Hamas is borrowing from Russia’s playbook in Ukraine.

bq Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, it has made up for shortfalls in its military arsenal by purchasing relatively inexpensive commercial drones and repurposing them as DIY bombs. Ukraine quickly copied the strategy, turning Chinese-made DJI quadcopters, which are designed for photographers and hobbyists, into weapons of war.

Good News¡ Assassinating Politicians Is Acceptable As Long As They’re Under Allen Influence ¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-09/ukraine-car-bomb-assassination-filiponenko/103082302

SCIENCE said:

Good News¡ Assassinating Politicians Is Acceptable As Long As They’re Under Allen Influence ¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-09/ukraine-car-bomb-assassination-filiponenko/103082302

Murdered, in cold blood.

So

Some 300,000 rounds have been delivered from existing stocks in the EU so far. With the rest becoming increasingly elusive to source, Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds insisted the original target should not be taken too literally.

“Well, of course, 1 million rounds are symbolic. I think aspiration and ambition is important,” he said.

guess we know how those submarines and occupied regions are going then.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-15/eu-is-struggling-to-produce-and-send-ammunition-ukraine/103106670

Remember what happened to Treaty when Symbolic Voice became increasingly elusive ¿

Turns Out That Tunnels Are Dual Use Items Especially When There Is An Invading Colonial Slash Communist Power Conducting Ground Incursion Special Military Operations ¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-18/kharkiv-builds-underground-schools-as-russia-keeps-up-attacks/103121314

Kharkiv region have begun building heavily fortified underground schools

“schools”

oh wait

SCIENCE said:

Turns Out That Tunnels Are Dual Use Items Especially When There Is An Invading Colonial Slash Communist Power Conducting Ground Incursion Special Military Operations ¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-18/kharkiv-builds-underground-schools-as-russia-keeps-up-attacks/103121314

Kharkiv region have begun building heavily fortified underground schools

“schools”

oh wait

“
When meeting today with law enforcement officials President Poroshenko said that there was only peaceful political settlement of this problem. And today a fragment of his earlier speech in Odesa appeared in Internet. In this speech Poroshenko called Odesa a Banderist city, making the best compliment in his opinion. But there was something more. Here is the settlement of the problem by Kyiv authority back at that time: severe economic pressure of Ukrainian citizens. “We will have jobs, they will not. We will have pensions, they will not. We will have support of children and pensioners, they will not. Our children will go to kindergartens and schools, theirs will be sitting in cellars. Because they do not know anything how to do! That’s how we are going to win this war”, stated Poroshenko”. Such statements are reported by the Channel One.

wookiemeister said:

SCIENCE said:

Turns Out That Tunnels Are Dual Use Items Especially When There Is An Invading Colonial Slash Communist Power Conducting Ground Incursion Special Military Operations ¡

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-18/kharkiv-builds-underground-schools-as-russia-keeps-up-attacks/103121314

Kharkiv region have begun building heavily fortified underground schools

“schools”

oh wait

“
When meeting today with law enforcement officials President Poroshenko said that there was only peaceful political settlement of this problem. And today a fragment of his earlier speech in Odesa appeared in Internet. In this speech Poroshenko called Odesa a Banderist city, making the best compliment in his opinion. But there was something more. Here is the settlement of the problem by Kyiv authority back at that time: severe economic pressure of Ukrainian citizens. “We will have jobs, they will not. We will have pensions, they will not. We will have support of children and pensioners, they will not. Our children will go to kindergartens and schools, theirs will be sitting in cellars. Because they do not know anything how to do! That’s how we are going to win this war”, stated Poroshenko”. Such statements are reported by the Channel One.

OK, you don’t need to be Einstein to work out that underground structures may be able to serve multiple purposes in times of emergency or conflict. The Russians are well aware of that. I suggest that you read Antony Beevor’s excellent ‘Stalingrad’, and Iain MacGregor’s ‘The Lighthouse of Stalingrad’ to see how they learnt that.

But, if your neighbours are likely to indulge in levelling as many of the above-ground structures in your cities as they can (which Ukraine’s history has shown to be a likely proposition), then it could hardly be deemed to be surprising or nefarious if, at some point, the idea of building underground facilities gets a serious hearing.

It’s not a bad idea at all. Wouldn’t it be good to have e.g. hospitals everywhere built underground, or into the sides of hills, so as to provide them with a better chance of surviving natural disasters, and being ready to help the injured in the aftermath?

river has separated Ukrainian and Russian forces since Moscow’s troops withdrew from Kherson a year ago.

If the area is held it would mean a significant advance for Ukraine as it may be able to begin transferring armoured vehicles and air defence systems across the river putting it a step closer to breaking through to Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

The success was claimed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak shortly after US-based experts said that marginal advances had been made into the village of Krynky, 2km (1.25 miles) inland from the river.

Russia conceded on 15 November that “small groups” of Ukrainian forces had set up positions in the village but insisted they had sustained heavy losses and had no chance of breaking through.

Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed official in charge of the Russian-occupied areas of the Kherson region, said they faced a “fiery hell”, adding: “Our additional forces have now been brought in. The enemy is trapped in Krynky.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Anti-Drone Technology Turns Armoured Personnel Carrier Into Prisoner Transport ¡

SCIENCE said:

Anti-Drone Technology Turns Armoured Personnel Carrier Into Prisoner Transport ¡

Translated image:

Proof That It’s A Proxy War Between Military Industrial Complexity

https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/ukraine-ramps-up-mobile-air-defense-teams-to-combat-russian-drone-onslaught/

Wait We Thought Ukraine Were Totally P\\//\/1/\/9 Those Russian N00bz ¿

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/30/putin-seems-to-be-winning-the-war-in-ukraine-for-now

Russia wants Portugal to be part of their empire. and California.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPQgzKtNy88

Link

start 4:06

JudgeMental said:

Russia wants Portugal to be part of their empire. and California.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPQgzKtNy88

Link

start 4:06

I’d be more inclined to suggest Gibraltar considering Britain’s moves at the moment

He added that mercury and arsenic were used in the attack, and that traces of heavy metals had also been detected in other GUR employees’ blood, though he did not specify how many.

SCIENCE said:

He added that mercury and arsenic were used in the attack, and that traces of heavy metals had also been detected in other GUR employees’ blood, though he did not specify how many.

Who he?

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

He added that mercury and arsenic were used in the attack, and that traces of heavy metals had also been detected in other GUR employees’ blood, though he did not specify how many.

Who he?

Юсов, Андрій

captain_spalding said:

SCIENCE said:

He added that mercury and arsenic were used in the attack, and that traces of heavy metals had also been detected in other GUR employees’ blood, though he did not specify how many.

Who he?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-02/ukraine-spy-chief-wife-alleged-assassination-poison-is-back/103168246

Link

Investigators find train in Russian tunnel was blown up in ‘terrorist act’ – newspaper
Reuters
December 1, 202311:02 PM GMT+11

Dec 1 (Reuters) – Investigators have concluded that a train that caught fire in Russia’s longest tunnel on Wednesday was blown up in a “terrorist act” by unidentified individuals, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Friday.

A Ukrainian source told Reuters on Thursday that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had detonated explosives in the rail tunnel in Siberia because Russia had been using the route for military supplies.

Read more:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/investigators-find-train-russian-tunnel-was-blown-up-terrorist-act-newspaper-2023-12-01/

Ukraine removes Kissinger from ‘kill list’
The veteran US diplomat, who died on Wednesday, had been added to the ‘Peacemaker’ database for allegedly spreading anti-Kiev narratives

wookiemeister said:

Ukraine removes Kissinger from ‘kill list’
The veteran US diplomat, who died on Wednesday, had been added to the ‘Peacemaker’ database for allegedly spreading anti-Kiev narratives

RIP Kissinger.

I used to love him.
But more recently I’ve become a bit more cynical about US diplomats in general.

Abrams tanks are the AFU’s new biggest problem.

According to Forbes, the air filters on the engine intakes have to be cleaned every 12 hours or the tanks will soon have to be sent for overhaul.

“All those things can be taught to the crew, but if ever they make a mistake—and they will—it blows a million-dollar engine that can’t be repaired in the field,” former U.S. Army General Mark Hertling stressed.

Witty Rejoinder said:

Investigators find train in Russian tunnel was blown up in ‘terrorist act’ – newspaper
Reuters
December 1, 202311:02 PM GMT+11

Dec 1 (Reuters) – Investigators have concluded that a train that caught fire in Russia’s longest tunnel on Wednesday was blown up in a “terrorist act” by unidentified individuals, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Friday.

A Ukrainian source told Reuters on Thursday that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had detonated explosives in the rail tunnel in Siberia because Russia had been using the route for military supplies.

Read more:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/investigators-find-train-russian-tunnel-was-blown-up-terrorist-act-newspaper-2023-12-01/

Its been real quiet from the Russian side about this

Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine

By Washington Post Staff
December 4, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EST

On June 15, in a conference room at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, flanked by top U.S. commanders, sat around a table with his Ukrainian counterpart, who was joined by aides from Kyiv. The room was heavy with an air of frustration.

Austin, in his deliberate baritone, asked Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov about Ukraine’s decision-making in the opening days of its long-awaited counteroffensive, pressing him on why his forces weren’t using Western-supplied mine-clearing equipment to enable a larger, mechanized assault, or using smoke to conceal their advances. Despite Russia’s thick defensive lines, Austin said, the Kremlin’s troops weren’t invincible.

Part one:

Over three months, reporters in Washington, London, Brussels and Riga, Latvia, as well as in Kyiv and near the front lines in Ukraine, spoke to more than 30 senior officials from Ukraine, the United States and European nations to examine the military planning behind the counteroffensive and how that contributed to the operation failing to achieve its goals. The Post spoke to former Russian service members who had fought in the war, as well as Russian war bloggers and analysts.
Washington Post reporters, photographers, news assistants and security advisers drove hundreds of miles throughout Ukraine to speak to soldiers and government officials for this series. Journalists made numerous front-line visits in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, including in embeds with combat units within five miles of Russian forces.

Reznikov, a bald, bespectacled lawyer, said Ukraine’s military commanders were the ones making those decisions. But he noted that Ukraine’s armored vehicles were being destroyed by Russian helicopters, drones and artillery with every attempt to advance. Without air support, he said, the only option was to use artillery to shell Russian lines, dismount from the targeted vehicles and proceed on foot.

“We can’t maneuver because of the land-mine density and tank ambushes,” Reznikov said, according to an official who was present.

The meeting in Brussels, less than two weeks into the campaign, illustrates how a counteroffensive born in optimism has failed to deliver its expected punch, generating friction and second-guessing between Washington and Kyiv and raising deeper questions about Ukraine’s ability to retake decisive amounts of territory.

As winter approaches, and the front lines freeze into place, Ukraine’s most senior military officials acknowledge that the war has reached a stalemate.

This examination of the lead-up to Ukraine’s counteroffensive is based on interviews with more than 30 senior officials from Ukraine, the United States and European nations. It provides new insights and previously unreported details about America’s deep involvement in the military planning behind the counteroffensive and the factors that contributed to its disappointments. The second part of this two-part account examines how the battle unfolded on the ground over the summer and fall, and the widening fissures between Washington and Kyiv. Some of the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.

Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:

● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.

● U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.

● U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.

● The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.

● The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.

● Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.

● As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault.

The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and President Volodymyr Zelensky predicting a decisive victory. But now, there is uncertainty on all fronts. Morale in Ukraine is waning. International attention has been diverted to the Middle East. Even among Ukraine’s supporters, there is growing political reluctance to contribute more to a precarious cause. At almost every point along the front, expectations and results have diverged as Ukraine has shifted to a slow-moving dismounted slog that has retaken only slivers of territory.

“We wanted faster results,” Zelensky said in an interview with the Associated Press last week. “From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact.”

Together, all these factors make victory for Ukraine far less likely than years of war and destruction.

The campaign’s inconclusive and discouraging early months pose sobering questions for Kyiv’s Western backers about the future, as Zelensky — supported by an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians — vows to fight until Ukraine restores the borders established in its 1991 independence from the Soviet Union.

“That’s going to take years and a lot of blood,” a British security official said, if it’s even possible. “Is Ukraine up for that? What are the manpower implications? The economic implications? Implications for Western support?”

The year now stands to end with Russian President Vladimir Putin more certain than ever that he can wait out a fickle West and fully absorb the Ukrainian territory already seized by his troops.

Gaming out the battle plan
In a conference call in the late fall of 2022, after Kyiv had won back territory in the north and south, Austin spoke with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, and asked him what he would need for a spring offensive. Zaluzhny responded that he required 1,000 armored vehicles and nine new brigades, trained in Germany and ready for battle.

“I took a big gulp,” Austin said later, according to an official with knowledge of the call. “That’s near-impossible,” he told colleagues.

In the first months of 2023, military officials from Britain, Ukraine and the United States concluded a series of war games at a U.S. Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany, where Ukrainian officers were embedded with a newly established command responsible for supporting Kyiv’s fight.

The sequence of eight high-level tabletop exercises formed the backbone for the U.S.-enabled effort to hone a viable, detailed campaign plan, and to determine what Western nations would need to provide to give it the means to succeed.

“We brought all the allies and partners together and really squeezed them hard to get additional mechanized vehicles,” a senior U.S. defense official said.

During the simulations, each of which lasted several days, participants were designated to play the part either of Russian forces — whose capabilities and behavior were informed by Ukrainian and allied intelligence — or Ukrainian troops and commanders, whose performance was bound by the reality that they would be facing serious constraints in manpower and ammunition.

Russia held these Ukrainian teens captive. Their testimonies could be used against Putin.

The planners ran the exercises using specialized war-gaming software and Excel spreadsheets — and, sometimes, simply by moving pieces around on a map. The simulations included smaller component exercises that each focused on a particular element of the fight — offensive operations or logistics. The conclusions were then fed back into the evolving campaign plan.

Top officials including Gen. Mark A. Milley, then chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, attended several of the simulations and were briefed on the results.

Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, who attended several of the war games in Germany used to plan the Ukrainian counteroffensive. (Illustration by Emily Sabens/The Washington Post; Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post; iStock)
During one visit to Wiesbaden, Milley spoke with Ukrainian special operations troops — who were working with American Green Berets — in the hope of inspiring them ahead of operations in enemy-controlled areas.

“There should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,” Milley said, according to an official with knowledge of the event. “You gotta get back there, and create a campaign behind the lines.”

Ukrainian officials hoped the offensive could re-create the success of the fall of 2022, when they recovered parts of the Kharkiv region in the northeast and the city of Kherson in the south in a campaign that surprised even Ukraine’s biggest backers. Again, their focus would be in more than one place.

But Western officials said the war games affirmed their assessment that Ukraine would be best served by concentrating its forces on a single strategic objective — a massed attack through Russian-held areas to the Sea of Azov, severing the Kremlin’s land route from Russia to Crimea, a critical supply line.

The rehearsals gave the United States the opportunity to say at several points to the Ukrainians, “I know you really, really, really want to do this, but it’s not going to work,” one former U.S. official said.

At the end of the day, though, it would be Zelensky, Zaluzhny and other Ukrainian leaders who would make the decision, the former official noted.

Officials tried to assign probabilities to different scenarios, including a Russian capitulation — deemed a “really low likelihood” — or a major Ukrainian setback that would create an opening for a major Russian counterattack — also a slim probability.

“Then what you’ve got is the reality in the middle, with degrees of success,” a British official said.

The most optimistic scenario for cutting the land bridge was 60 to 90 days. The exercises also predicted a difficult and bloody fight, with losses of soldiers and equipment as high as 30 to 40 percent, according to U.S. officials.

The United States was deeply involved in the military planning behind the operation. Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing.
The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and more training. The counteroffensive began in June.
U.S. military officials were confident that a mass, mechanized frontal attack along one axis in the south of Ukraine would lead to a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine attacked along three axes, believing that would stretch Russian forces. Ukraine abandoned large, mechanized assaults when it suffered serious losses in the first days of the campaign.
The wargame simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov in the south of Ukraine and cut off Russian troops in 60 to 90 days. Ukrainian forces have advanced only about 12 miles. The Sea of Azov is still far out of reach. Ukraine’s top commander now acknowledges that the war has reached a “stalemate.”

American military officers had seen casualties come in far lower than estimated in the major battles of Iraq and Afghanistan. They considered the estimates a starting point for planning medical care and battlefield evacuation so that losses never reached the projected levels.

The numbers “can be sobering,” the senior U.S. defense official said. “But they never are as high as predicted, because we know we have to do things to make sure we don’t.”

U.S. officials also believed that more Ukrainian troops would ultimately be killed if Kyiv failed to mount a decisive assault and the conflict became a drawn-out war of attrition.

But they acknowledged the delicacy of suggesting a strategy that would entail significant losses, no matter the final figure.

“It was easy for us to tell them in a tabletop exercise, ‘Okay, you’ve just got to focus on one place and push really hard,’” a senior U.S. official said. “They were going to lose a lot of people and they were going to lose a lot of the equipment.”

Those choices, the senior official said, become “much harder on the battlefield.”

On that, a senior Ukrainian military official agreed. War-gaming “doesn’t work,” the official said in retrospect, in part because of the new technology that was transforming the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers were fighting a war unlike anything NATO forces had experienced: a large conventional conflict, with World World I-style trenches overlaid by omnipresent drones and other futuristic tools — and without the air superiority the U.S. military has had in every modern conflict it has fought.

“All these methods … you can take them neatly and throw them away, you know?” the senior Ukrainian said of the war-game scenarios. “And throw them away because it doesn’t work like that now.”

Disagreements about deployments
The Americans had long questioned the wisdom of Kyiv’s decision to keep forces around the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainians saw it differently. “Bakhmut holds” had become shorthand for pride in their troops’ fierce resistance against a bigger enemy. For months, Russian and Ukrainian artillery had pulverized the city. Soldiers killed and wounded one another by the thousands to make gains measured sometimes by city blocks.

The city finally fell to Russia in May.

Before-and-after images of the destroyed Ukrainian city of Bakhmut

Zelensky, backed by his top commander, stood firm about the need to retain a major presence around Bakhmut and strike Russian forces there as part of the counteroffensive. To that end, Zaluzhny maintained more forces near Bakhmut than he did in the south, including the country’s most experienced units, U.S. officials observed with frustration.

Ukrainian officials argued that they needed to sustain a robust fight in the Bakhmut area because otherwise Russia would try to reoccupy parts of the Kharkiv region and advance in Donetsk — a key objective for Putin, who wants to seize that whole region.

“We told , ‘If you assumed the seats of our generals, you’d see that if we don’t make Bakhmut a point of contention, would,’” one senior Ukrainian official said. “We can’t let that happen.”

In addition, Zaluzhny envisioned making the formidable length of the 600-mile front a problem for Russia, according to the senior British official. The Ukrainian general wanted to stretch Russia’s much larger occupying force — unfamiliar with the terrain and already facing challenges with morale and logistics — to dilute its fighting power.

Western officials saw problems with that approach, which would also diminish the firepower of Ukraine’s military at any single point of attack. Western military doctrine dictated a concentrated push toward a single objective.

The Americans yielded, however.

“They know the terrain. They know the Russians,” said a senior U.S. official. “It’s not our war. And we had to kind of sit back into that.”

The weapons Kyiv needed
On Feb. 3, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, called together the administration’s top national security officials to review the counteroffensive plan.

The White House’s subterranean Situation Room was being renovated, so the top echelons of the State, Defense and Treasury departments, along with the CIA, gathered in a secure conference room in the adjacent Eisenhower Executive Office Building.

Most were already familiar with Ukraine’s three-pronged approach. The goal was for Biden’s senior advisers to voice their approval or reservations to one another and try to reach consensus on their joint advice to the president.

The questions posed by Sullivan were simple, said a person who attended. First, could Washington and its partners successfully prepare Ukraine to break through Russia’s heavily fortified defenses?

And then, even if the Ukrainians were prepared, “could they actually do it?”

Milley, with his ever-ready green maps of Ukraine, displayed the potential axes of attack and the deployment of Ukrainian and Russian forces. He and Austin explained their conclusion that “Ukraine, to be successful, needed to fight a different way,” one senior administration official closely involved in the planning recalled.

Ukraine’s military, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, had become a defensive force. Since 2014 it had focused on a grinding but low-level fight against Russian-backed forces in the eastern Donbas region. To orchestrate a large-scale advance would require a significant shift in its force structure and tactics.

The planning called for wider and better Western training, which up to that point had focused on teaching small groups and individuals to use Western-provided weapons. Thousands of troops would be instructed in Germany in large unit formations and U.S.-style battlefield maneuvers, whose principles dated to World War II. For American troops, training in what was known as “combined arms” operations often lasted more than a year. The Ukraine plan proposed condensing that into a few months.

Instead of firing artillery, then “inching forward” and firing some more, the Ukrainians would be “fighting and shooting at the same time,” with newly trained brigades moving forward with armored vehicles and artillery support “in a kind of symphonic way,” the senior administration official said.

The Biden administration announced in early January that it would send Bradley Fighting Vehicles; Britain agreed to transfer 14 Challenger tanks. Later that month, after a grudging U.S. announcement that it would provide top-line Abrams M1 tanks by the fall, Germany and other NATO nations pledged hundreds of German-made Leopard tanks in time for the counteroffensive.

A far bigger problem was the supply of 155mm shells, which would enable Ukraine to compete with Russia’s vast artillery arsenal. The Pentagon calculated that Kyiv needed 90,000 or more a month. While U.S. production was increasing, it was barely more than a tenth of that.

“It was just math,” the former senior official said. “At a certain point, we just wouldn’t be able to provide them.”

As Ukraine flies through artillery rounds, U.S. races to keep up

Sullivan laid out options. South Korea had massive quantities of the U.S.-provided munitions, but its laws prohibited sending weapons to war zones. The Pentagon calculated that about 330,000 155mm shells could be transferred by air and sea within 41 days if Seoul could be persuaded.

Senior administration officials had been speaking with counterparts in Seoul, who were receptive as long as the provision was indirect. The shells began to flow at the beginning of the year, eventually making South Korea a larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined.

The more immediate alternative would entail tapping the U.S. military’s arsenal of 155mm shells that, unlike the South Korean variant, were packed with cluster munitions. The Pentagon had thousands of them, gathering dust for decades. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken balked.

Inside the warhead of those cluster weapons, known officially as Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions, or DPICMs, were dozens of bomblets that would scatter across a wide area. Some would inevitably fail to explode, posing a long-term danger to civilians, and 120 countries — including most U.S. allies but not Ukraine or Russia — had signed a treaty banning them. Sending them would cost the United States some capital on the war’s moral high ground.

In the face of Blinken’s strong objections, Sullivan tabled consideration of DPICMs. They would not be referred to Biden for approval, at least for now.

Can Ukraine win?
With the group agreeing that the United States and allies could provide what they believed were the supplies and training Ukraine needed, Sullivan faced the second part of the equation: Could Ukraine do it?

Zelensky, on the war’s first anniversary in February, had boasted that 2023 would be a “year of victory.” His intelligence chief had decreed that Ukrainians would soon be vacationing in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia had illegally annexed in 2014. But some in the U.S. government were less than confident.

U.S. intelligence officials, skeptical of the Pentagon’s enthusiasm, assessed the likelihood of success at no better than 50-50. The estimate frustrated their Defense Department counterparts, especially those at U.S. European Command, who recalled the spies’ erroneous prediction in the days before the 2022 invasion that Kyiv would fall to the Russians within days.

Some defense officials observed caustically that optimism was not in intelligence officials’ DNA — they were the “Eeyores” of government, the former senior official said, and it was always safer to bet on failure.

“Part of it was just the fact of the sheer weight of the Russian military,” CIA Director William J. Burns later reflected in an interview. “For all their incompetence in the first year of the war, they had managed to launch a shambolic partial mobilization to fill a lot of the gaps in the front. In Zaporizhzhia” — the key line of the counteroffensive if the land bridge was to be severed — “we could see them building really quite formidable fixed defenses, hard to penetrate, really costly, really bloody for the Ukrainians.”

Perhaps more than any other senior official, Burns, a former ambassador to Russia, had traveled multiple times to Kyiv over the previous year, sometimes in secret, to meet with his Ukrainian counterparts, as well as with Zelensky and his senior military officials. He appreciated the Ukrainians’ most potent weapon — their will to fight an existential threat.

“Your heart is in it,” Burns said of his hopes for helping Ukraine succeed. “But … our broader intelligence assessment was that this was going to be a really tough slog.”

Two weeks after Sullivan and others briefed the president, a top-secret, updated intelligence report assessed that the challenges of massing troops, ammunition and equipment meant that Ukraine would probably fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals.

The West had so far declined to grant Ukraine’s request for fighter jets and the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which could reach targets farther behind Russian lines, and which the Ukrainians felt they needed to strike key Russian command and supply sites.

“You are not going to go from an emerging, post-Soviet legacy military to the U.S. Army of 2023 overnight,” a senior Western intelligence official said. “It is foolish for some to expect that you can give them things and it changes the way they fight.”

U.S. military officials did not dispute that it would be a bloody struggle. By early 2023, they knew that as many as 130,000 Ukrainian troops had been injured or killed in the war, including many of the country’s best soldiers. Some Ukrainian commanders were already expressing doubts about the coming campaign, citing the numbers of troops who lacked battlefield experience.

Yet the Pentagon had also worked closely with Ukrainian forces. Officials had watched them fight courageously and had overseen the effort to provide them with large amounts of sophisticated arms. U.S. military officials argued that the intelligence estimates failed to account for the firepower of the newly arriving weaponry, as well as the Ukrainians’ will to win.

“The plan that they executed was entirely feasible with the force that they had, on the timeline that we planned out,” a senior U.S. military official said.

Austin knew that additional time for training on new tactics and equipment would be beneficial but that Ukraine didn’t have that luxury.

“In a perfect world, you get a choice. You keep saying, ‘I want to take six more months to train up and feel comfortable about this,’” he said in an interview. “My take is that they didn’t have a choice. They were in a fight for their lives.”

Russia gets ready
By March, Russia was already many months into preparing its defenses, building miles upon miles of barriers, trenches and other obstacles across the front in anticipation of the Ukrainian push.

After stinging defeats in the Kharkiv region and Kherson in the fall of 2022, Russia seemed to pivot. Putin appointed Gen. Sergei Surovikin — known as “General Armageddon” for his merciless tactics in Syria — to lead Russia’s fight in Ukraine, focusing on digging in rather than taking more territory.

In the months after the 2022 invasion, Russian trenches were basic — flood-prone, straight-line pits nicknamed “corpse lines,” according to Ruslan Leviev, an analyst and co-founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, which has been tracking Russian military activity in Ukraine since 2014.

But Russia adapted as the war wore on, digging drier, zigzagging trenches that better protected soldiers from shelling. As the trenches eventually grew more sophisticated, they opened up into forests to offer better means for defenders to fall back, Leviev said. The Russians built tunnels between positions to counter Ukraine’s extensive use of drones, he added.

The trenches were part of multilayered defenses that included dense minefields, concrete pyramids known as dragon’s teeth, and antitank ditches. If minefields were disabled, Russian forces had rocket-borne systems to reseed them.

Unlike Russia’s offensive efforts early in the war, these defenses followed textbook Soviet standards. “This is one case where they have implemented their doctrine,” a senior Western intelligence official said.

Konstantin Yefremov, a former officer with Russia’s 42nd motorized rifle division who was stationed in Zaporizhzhia in 2022, recalled that Russia had the equipment and grunt power necessary to build a solid wall against attack.

“Putin’s army is experiencing shortages of various arms, but can literally swim in mines,” Yefremov said in an interview after fleeing to the West. “They have millions of them, both antitank and antipersonnel mines.”

The poverty, desperation and fear of the tens of thousands of conscripted Russian soldiers made them an ideal workforce. “All you need is slave power,” he said. “And even more so, Russian rank-and-file soldiers know they are for themselves, to save their skin.”

In addition, in a tactic used in both World War I and II, Surovikin would deploy blocking units behind the Russian troops to prevent them from retreating, sometimes under pain of death.

Their options were “either to die from our units or from their own,” said Ukrainian police Col. Oleksandr Netrebko, the commander of a newly formed police brigade fighting near Bakhmut.

Yet, while Russia had far more troops, a deeper military arsenal and what one U.S. official said was “just a willingness to endure really dramatic losses,” U.S. officials knew it also had serious vulnerabilities.

By early 2023, some 200,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated, including scores of highly trained commandos. Replacement troops who were rushed into Ukraine lacked experience. Turnover of field leaders had hurt command and control. Equipment losses were equally staggering: more than 2,000 tanks, some 4,000 armored fighting vehicles and at least 75 aircraft, according to a Pentagon document leaked on the Discord chat platform in the spring.

The assessment was that the Russian force was insufficient to protect every line of conflict. But unless Ukraine got underway quickly, the Kremlin could make up its deficits inside of a year, or less if it got more outside help from friendly nations such as Iran and North Korea.

It was imperative, U.S. officials argued, for Ukraine to launch.

More troops, more weapons
In late April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made an unannounced trip to see Zelensky in Kyiv.

Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, was in town to discuss preparations for the NATO summit in July, including Kyiv’s push to join the alliance.

But over a working lunch with a handful of ministers and aides, talk turned to preparation for the counteroffensive — how things were going and what was left to be done.

Stoltenberg — due the next day in Germany for a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a consortium of roughly 50 countries providing weaponry and other support to Kyiv — asked about efforts to equip and train Ukrainian brigades by the end of April, according to two people familiar with the talks.

Zelensky reported that the Ukrainian military expected the brigades to be at 80 or 85 percent by the end of the month, the people said. That seemed at odds with American expectations that Ukraine should already be ready to launch.

The Ukrainian leader also stressed that his troops had to hold the east to keep Russia from shifting forces to block Kyiv’s southern counteroffensive. To defend the east while also pushing south, he said, Ukraine needed more brigades, the two people recalled.

Ukrainian officials also continued to make the case that an expanded arsenal was central to their ability to succeed. It wasn’t until May, on the eve of the fight, that Britain announced it would provide longer-range Storm Shadow missiles. But another core refrain from Ukraine was that they were being asked to fight in a way no NATO nation would ever contemplate — without effective power in the air.

As one former senior Ukrainian official pointed out, his country’s aging MiG-29 fighter jets could detect targets within a 40-mile radius and fire at a range of 20 miles. Russia’s Su-35s, meanwhile, could identify targets more than 90 miles away and shoot them down as far away as 75 miles.

“Imagine a MiG and a Su-35 in the sky. We don’t see them while they see us. We can’t reach them while they can reach us,” the official said. “That’s why we fought so hard for F-16s.”

American officials pointed out that even a few of the $60 million aircraft would eat up funds that could go much further in buying vehicles, air defenses or ammunition. Moreover, they said, the jets wouldn’t provide the air superiority the Ukrainians craved.

“If you could train a bunch of F-16 pilots in three months, they would have got shot down on day one, because the Russian air defenses in Ukraine are very robust and very capable,” a senior defense official said.

Biden finally yielded in May and granted the required permission for European nations to donate their U.S.-made F-16s to Ukraine. But pilot training and delivery of the jets would take a year or more, far too long to make a difference in the coming fight.

Kyiv hesitates
By May, concern was growing within the Biden administration and among allied backers. According to the planning, Ukraine should have already launched its operations. As far as the U.S. military was concerned, the window of opportunity was shrinking fast. Intelligence over the winter had shown that Russian defenses were relatively weak and largely unmanned, and that morale was low among Russian troops after their losses in Kharkiv and Kherson. U.S. intelligence assessed that senior Russian officers felt the prospects were bleak.

But that assessment was changing quickly. The goal had been to strike before Moscow was ready, and the U.S. military had been trying since mid-April to get the Ukrainians moving. “We were given dates. We were given many dates,” a senior U.S. government official said. “We had April this, May that, you know, June. It just kept getting delayed.”

Meanwhile, enemy defenses were thickening. U.S. military officials were dismayed to see Russian forces use those weeks in April and May to seed significant amounts of additional mines, a development the officials believed ended up making Ukrainian troops’ advance substantially harder.

Washington was also getting worried that the Ukrainians were burning up too many artillery shells, primarily around Bakhmut, that were needed for the counteroffensive.

As May ground on, it seemed to the Americans that Kyiv, gung-ho during the war games and the training, had abruptly slowed down — that there was “some type of switch in psychology” where they got to the brink “and then all of a sudden they thought, ‘Well, let’s triple-check, make sure we’re comfortable,’” said one administration official who was part of the planning. “But they were telling us for almost a month … ‘We’re about to go. We’re about to go.’”

Some senior American officials believed there wasn’t conclusive proof that the delay had altered Ukraine’s chances for success. Others saw clear indications that the Kremlin had successfully exploited the interim along what it believed would be Kyiv’s lines of assault.

In Ukraine, a different kind of frustration was building. “When we had a calculated timeline, yes, the plan was to start the operation in May,” said a former senior Ukrainian official who was deeply involved in the effort. “However, many things happened.”

Promised equipment was delivered late or arrived unfit for combat, the Ukrainians said. “A lot of weapons that are coming in now, they were relevant last year,” the senior Ukrainian military official said, not for the high-tech battles ahead. Crucially, he said, they had received only 15 percent of items — like the Mine Clearing Line Charge launchers (MCLCs) — needed to execute their plan to remotely cut passages through the minefields.

And yet, the senior Ukrainian military official recalled, the Americans were nagging about a delayed start and still complaining about how many troops Ukraine was devoting to Bakhmut.

U.S. officials vehemently denied that the Ukrainians did not get all the weaponry they were promised. Ukraine’s wish list may have been far bigger, the Americans acknowledged, but by the time the offensive began, they had received nearly two dozen MCLCs, more than 40 mine rollers and excavators, 1,000 Bangalore torpedoes, and more than 80,000 smoke grenades. Zaluzhny had requested 1,000 armored vehicles; the Pentagon ultimately delivered 1,500.

“They got everything they were promised, on time,” one senior U.S. official said. In some cases, the officials said, Ukraine failed to deploy equipment critical to the offensive, holding it in reserve or allocating it to units that weren’t part of the assault.

Then there was the weather. The melting snow and heavy rains that turn parts of Ukraine into a soup of heavy mud each spring had come late and lasted longer than usual.

In the middle of 2022, when the thinking about a counteroffensive began, “no one knew the weather forecast,” the former senior Ukrainian official said.

That meant it was unclear when the flat plains and rich black soil of southeastern Ukraine, which could act as a glue grabbing hold of boots and tires, would dry out for summer. The Ukrainians understood the uncertainty because they, unlike the Americans, lived there.

As the preparations accelerated, Ukrainian officials’ concerns grew more acute, erupting at a meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany in April when Zaluzhny’s deputy, Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, made an emotional appeal for help.

“We’re sorry, but some of the vehicles we received are unfit for combat,” Zabrodskyi told Austin and his aides, according to a former senior Ukrainian official. He said the Bradleys and Leopards had broken or missing tracks. German Marder fighting vehicles lacked radio sets; they were nothing more than iron boxes with tracks — useless if they couldn’t communicate with their units, he said. Ukrainian officials said the units for the counteroffensive lacked sufficient de-mining and evacuation vehicles.

Austin looked at Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander for Europe, and Lt. Gen. Antonio Aguto, head of the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, both sitting next to him. They said they’d check.

The Pentagon concluded that Ukrainian forces were failing to properly handle and maintain all the equipment after it was received. Austin directed Aguto to work more intensively with his Ukrainian counterparts on maintenance.

“Even if you deliver 1,300 vehicles that are working fine, there’s going to be some that break between the time that you get them on the ground there and the time they enter combat,” a senior defense official said.

By June 1, the top echelons at U.S. European Command and the Pentagon were frustrated and felt like they were getting few answers. Maybe the Ukrainians were daunted by the potential casualties? Perhaps there were political disagreements within the Ukrainian leadership, or problems along the chain of command?

The counteroffensive finally lurched into motion in early June. Some Ukrainian units quickly notched small gains, recapturing Zaporizhzhia-region villages south of Velyka Novosilka, 80 miles from the Azov coast. But elsewhere, not even Western arms and training could fully shield Ukrainian forces from the punishing Russian firepower.

When troops from the 37th Reconnaissance Brigade attempted an advance, they, like units elsewhere, immediately felt the force of Russia’s tactics. From the first minutes of their assault, they were overwhelmed by mortar fire that pierced their French AMX-10 RC armored vehicles. Their own artillery fire didn’t materialize as expected. Soldiers crawled out of burning vehicles. In one unit, 30 of 50 soldiers were captured, wounded or killed. Ukraine’s equipment losses in the initial days included 20 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and six German-made Leopard tanks.

Those early encounters landed like a thunderbolt among the officers in Zaluzhny’s command center, searing a question in their minds: Was the strategy doomed?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/?

In Ukraine, a war of incremental gains as counteroffensive stalls

By Washington Post Staff
December 4, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EST

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — Soldiers in the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade waited for nightfall before piling — nervous but confident — into their U.S.-provided Bradley Fighting Vehicles. It was June 7 and Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was about to begin.

The goal for the first 24 hours was to advance nearly nine miles, reaching the village of Robotyne — an initial thrust south toward the larger objective of reclaiming Melitopol, a city near the Sea of Azov, and severing Russian supply lines.

Nothing went as planned.

Part two:
Reported by Michael Birnbaum, Karen DeYoung, Kamila Hrabchuk, Alex Horton, John Hudson, Mary Ilyushin, Kostiantyn Khudov, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Dan Lamothe, Kostiantyn Khudov, Serhii Korolchuk, Greg Miller, Serhiy Morgunov, Siobhán O’Grady, Emily Rauhala, David L. Stern, and Missy Ryan.
Written by Isabelle Khurshudyan.

Over three months, reporters in Washington, London, Brussels and Riga, Latvia, as well as in Kyiv and near the front lines in Ukraine, spoke to dozens of Ukrainian officers and troops and over 30 senior officials from Ukraine, the United States and European nations to examine how the counteroffensive unfolded on the ground, and the widening fissures between Kyiv and Washington. The Post spoke to former Russian service members who fought in the war, as well as Russian war bloggers and analysts.
Washington Post reporters, photographers, news assistants and security advisers drove hundreds of miles throughout Ukraine to speak to soldiers and government officials for this series. Journalists made numerous front-line visits in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, including in embeds with combat units within five miles of Russian forces.

The Ukrainian troops had expected minefields but were blindsided by the density. The ground was carpeted with explosives, so many that some were buried in stacks. The soldiers had been trained to drive their Bradleys at a facility in Germany, on smooth terrain. But on the mushy soil of the Zaporizhzhia region, in the deafening noise of battle, they struggled to steer through the narrow lanes cleared of mines by advance units.

The Russians, positioned on higher ground, immediately started firing antitank missiles. Some vehicles in the convoy were hit, forcing others behind them to veer off the path. Those, in turn, exploded on mines, snarling even more of the convoy. Russian helicopters and drones swooped in and attacked the pileup.

Troops, some experiencing the shock of combat for the first time, pulled back to regroup — only to attack and retreat, again and again on successive days, with the same bloody results.

“It was hellfire,” said Oleh Sentsov, a platoon commander in the 47th.

By day four, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top commander, had seen enough. Incinerated Western military hardware — American Bradleys, German Leopard tanks, mine-sweeping vehicles — littered the battlefield. The numbers of dead and wounded sapped morale.

Zaluzhny told his troops to pause their assaults before any more of Ukraine’s limited weaponry was obliterated, a senior Ukrainian military official said.

Rather than try to breach Russian defenses with a massed, mechanized attack and supporting artillery fire, as his American counterparts had advised, Zaluzhny decided that Ukrainian soldiers would go on foot in small groups of about 10 — a process that would save equipment and lives but would be much slower.

Months of planning with the United States was tossed aside on that fourth day, and the already delayed counteroffensive, designed to reach the Sea of Azov within two to three months, ground to a near-halt. Rather than making a nine-mile breakthrough on their first day, the Ukrainians in the nearly six months since June have advanced about 12 miles and liberated a handful of villages. Melitopol is still far out of reach.

This account of how the counteroffensive unfolded is the second in a two-part series and illuminates the brutal and often futile attempts to breach Russian lines, as well as the widening rift between Ukrainian and U.S. commanders over tactics and strategy. The first article examined the Ukrainian and U.S. planning that went into the operation.

This second part is based on interviews with more than 30 senior Ukrainian and U.S. military officials, as well as over two dozen officers and troops on the front line. Some officials and soldiers spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe military operations.

Key findings from reporting on the campaign include:

● Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.

● Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield led to rifts with the United States over how best to cut through deep Russian defenses.

● The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.

● Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.

● In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

Nearly six months after the counteroffensive began, the campaign has become a war of incremental gains. Damp World War I-style trenches lace eastern and southern Ukraine as surveillance and attack drones crowd the skies overhead. Moscow launches missile assaults on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv is using both Western missiles and home-grown technology to strike far behind the front lines — in Moscow, in Crimea and on the Black Sea.

But the territorial lines of June 2023 have barely changed. And Russian President Vladimir Putin — in contrast to the silence he often maintained in the first year of the war — trumpets at every opportunity what he calls the counteroffensive’s failure. “As for the counteroffensive, which is allegedly stalling, it has failed completely,” Putin said in October.

Training for battle
On Jan. 16, five months before the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Gen. Mark A. Milley, then chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited soldiers with the 47th, just days after the unit arrived at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany.

Milley, trailed by staff and senior military officials based in Europe, zigzagged across a muddy, chilly training range, bantering with Ukrainian soldiers and watching as they fired on stationary targets with rifles and M240B machine guns.

The installation had been used to train small groups of Ukrainian soldiers since 2014, when Russia invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula. In anticipation of the counteroffensive, the effort was scaled up with one or more battalions of about 600 Ukrainian soldiers cycling through at a time.

In a white field tent, Milley gathered with U.S. soldiers overseeing the training, who told him they were trying to replicate Russian tactics and build some of the trenches and other obstacles the Ukrainians would face in battle.

The United States was deeply involved in the military planning behind the operation. Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing.
The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and more training. The counteroffensive began in June.
U.S. military officials were confident that a mass, mechanized frontal attack along one axis in the south of Ukraine would lead to a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine attacked along three axes, believing that would stretch Russian forces. Ukraine abandoned large, mechanized assaults when it suffered serious losses in the first days of the campaign.
The wargame simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov in the south of Ukraine and cut off Russian troops in 60 to 90 days. Ukrainian forces have advanced only about 12 miles. The Sea of Azov is still far out of reach. Ukraine’s top commander now acknowledges that the war has reached a “stalemate.”

“The whole thing … for them to be successful with the Russians is for them to be able to both fire and maneuver,” Milley said, describing in basic terms the essence of the counteroffensive’s “combined arms” strategy, which called for coordinated maneuvers by a massed force of infantry, tanks, armored vehicles, engineers and artillery. If this were the United States or NATO, the operation also would have included devastating air power to weaken the enemy and protect troops on the ground, but the Ukrainians would have to make do with little or none.

The 47th had been selected to be a “breach force” at the tip of the counteroffensive and would be equipped with Western arms. But as Milley made his rounds and chatted with Ukrainian soldiers — from young men in their 20s to middle-aged recruits — many they told him that they had only recently left civilian life and had no combat experience.

Milley kept silent. But later, in the meeting with U.S. trainers, he seemed to acknowledge the scale of the task ahead. “Give them everything you’ve got here,” he said.

The 47th was a newly created unit tabbed for the training in Germany. Ukraine’s military leadership had decided that more-experienced brigades would hold off the Russians during the winter, while fresh soldiers would form new brigades, receive training abroad and then lead the fight in the spring and summer. More than a year of war — with up to 130,000 troops dead or wounded, according to Western estimates — had taken a heavy toll on Ukraine’s armed forces. Even the most battle-hardened brigades were now largely composed of drafted replacements.

About 70 percent of the soldiers in the 47th didn’t have any battlefield experience, according to one senior commander in the brigade.

The 47th’s leadership was also strikingly young — its commander, though combat-hardened, was just 28 years old and his deputy was 25. Their youth had been billed as an advantage; young officers would absorb NATO tactics unaffected by the Soviet way of war that still infused parts of the Ukrainian military.

Some of the Ukrainian soldiers thought the American trainers didn’t grasp the scale of the conflict against a more powerful enemy. “The presence of a huge number of drones, fortifications, minefields and so on were not taken into account,” said a soldier in the 47th with the call sign Joker. Ukrainian soldiers brought their own drones to help hone their skills, he said, but trainers initially rebuffed the request to integrate them because the training programs were predetermined. Drone use was later added following Ukrainian feedback, a U.S. official said.

The U.S. program had benefits, Joker said, including advanced cold-weather training and how to adjust artillery fire. But much was discarded once real bullets flew. “We had to improve tactics during the battle itself,” he said. “We couldn’t use it the way we were taught.”

U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they never expected that two months of training would transform these troops into a NATO-like force. Instead, the intention was to teach them to properly use their new Western tanks and fighting vehicles and “make them literate in the basics of firing and moving,” a U.S. senior military official said.

No order to attack
When soldiers from the 47th returned to Ukraine in the spring, they expected the counteroffensive to start almost immediately. In early May, the brigade relocated closer to the front line, hiding their Bradleys and other Western equipment in the tree lines of rural Zaporizhzhia. The 47th’s insignia on vehicles was covered up in case locals sympathetic to Russia might reveal their location.

But weeks passed with no order to attack. Many in the unit felt the element of surprise had been lost. The political leadership “shouldn’t have been announcing our counteroffensive for almost a year,” said one unit commander in the 47th. “The enemy knew where we’d be coming from.”

Milley and other senior U.S. military officers involved in planning the offensive argued for the Ukrainians to mass forces at one key spot in Zaporizhzhia, to help them overcome stiff Russian defenses and ensure a successful breakthrough in the drive to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian plan, however, was to push on three axes — south along two distinct paths to the Sea of Azov, as well as in eastern Ukraine around the besieged city of Bakhmut, which the Russians had seized in the spring after a nearly year-long battle.

Ukrainian military leaders decided that committing too many troops to one point in the south would leave forces in the east vulnerable and enable the Russians to take territory there and, potentially, in Kharkiv to the northeast.

To split the Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian marine brigades at the western edge of the neighboring Donetsk region would push south toward the coastal city of Berdyansk. That left the 47th and other brigades, part of what Ukraine referred to as its 9th Corps, to attack along the counteroffensive’s main axis, toward Melitopol.

The plan called for the 47th, and the 9th Corps, to breach the first Russian line of defense and take Robotyne. Then the 10th Corps, made up of Ukraine’s paratroopers, would join the fight in a second wave pushing south.

“We thought it was going to be a simple two-day task” to take Robotyne, said the commander of a Bradley Fighting Vehicle who goes by the call sign Frenchman.

Mining all approaches
Days after the counteroffensive launched, Oleksandr Sak, then the 47th’s commander, visited a Russian position his troops had captured. He noted anti-drone guns, thermal imagery scopes and small surveillance drones, among other abandoned materiel. “I realized the enemy had prepared,” he said. “We didn’t catch them off-guard; they knew we were coming.”

Also left behind were posters with Russian propaganda. One showed an image of men kissing in public with a red “X” over it, next to an image of a man and woman with two children. “Fighting for traditional families,” the poster said.

Sak also found a map that the Russians had used to mark their minefields. For just one part of the front — about four miles long and four miles deep — more than 20,000 mines were listed.

Ukraine is now the most mined country. It will take decades to make safe.

“I wouldn’t say it was unexpected, but we underestimated it,” Sak said. “We conducted engineering and aerial reconnaissance, but many mines were masked or buried. In addition to those by the front line, there were mines deeper into enemy positions. We passed enemy positions and encountered more mines where we thought there were none anymore.”

A chief drone sergeant in the 47th said that only on foot did they find remote-detonation traps, describing their discovery as a “surprise.”

U.S. military officials believed that Ukraine could have made a more significant advance by embracing greater use of ground reconnaissance units and reducing its reliance on imagery from drones, which weren’t able to detect buried mines, tripwires or booby traps.

The Zaporizhzhia region is largely composed of flat, open fields, and the Russians had chosen what high ground there was to build key defenses. From there, soldiers and officials said, Russian units armed with antitank missiles waited for convoys of Bradley Fighting Vehicles and German Leopard tanks. A mine-clearing vehicle always led the pack — and was targeted first with the help of reconnaissance drones.

“We constantly faced antitank fire and destroyed up to 10 Russian antitank guided missile systems per day,” Sak said. But, he added, “day after day, they pulled in more” of the systems.

Some 60 percent of Ukraine’s de-mining equipment was damaged or destroyed in the first days, according to a senior Ukrainian defense official. “Our partners’ reliance on armored maneuver and a breakthrough didn’t work,” the official said. “We had to change tactics.”

Within a week of the start of the counteroffensive, teams of sappers would work in twilight hours, when it was light enough for them to de-mine by hand but not so bright that the Russians could spot them. Once they cleared a small pathway, infantry would follow — a slow, grueling advance one wood line at a time.

Often, when Ukrainian soldiers reached a Russian outpost, they would find that it too had been booby-trapped with mines. And rather than withdraw, Russian forces held their positions even under heavy artillery bombardment, meaning the Ukrainians would have to engage in close combat with small arms to advance.

Throughout the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russians had deployed new units, called “Storm Z,” with fighters recruited from prisons. The former inmates attacked in human waves called “meat assaults” and were used to preserve more-elite forces. Around Robotyne — the village the 47th was supposed to reach on the first day of the counteroffensive — they were mixed in with Russia’s 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and other regular army formations.

“Robotyne was one of the toughest assignments,” a member of the 810th engineering unit said in an interview with a pro-war Russian blogger. “We had to go all out to prevent the enemy from breaking through. As sappers and engineers, we had to mine all approaches both for infantry and their vehicles.

“The famous Leopards are burning, and we tried to make sure they burn bright.”

Fleets of drones
Early in the assault on Robotyne, a Russian machine-gun nest carved into a building was preventing Ukrainian infantry from advancing. A drone company within the 47th sent up two modified racing drones strapped with explosives. One glided through a window and exploded. Another, guided by a pilot with the call sign Sapsan, spiraled into another room and detonated the ammunition inside, he said, also killing several enemy soldiers.

It was an early high point in the use of small drones like pinpoint artillery. Drone operators — wearing a headset that receives a video feed from the drone in real time — hunted for armored vehicles using first-person-view drones, known as FPVs. FPVs are so precise and fast that they can target the weak parts of vehicles, such as engine compartments and tracks, operators say.

But Russia is also deploying fleets of the same hand-built attack drones, which cost less than $1000 each and can disable a multimillion-dollar tank. Unlike artillery ammunition, which is a precious resource for both Russia and Ukraine, the low-cost, disposable FPV drones can be used to hit small groups of infantry — navigated directly into trenches or into troops on the move.

Evacuating the wounded or bringing fresh supplies to a front-line position also became harrowing and potentially deadly tasks, often saved for nighttime because of the threat of drones.

“At first, our problem was mines. Now, it’s FPV drones,” said Sentsov, the platoon commander in the 47th. “They hit the target precisely and deal serious damage. They can disable a Bradley and potentially even blow it up. It’s not a direct explosion, but they can hit it in a way to make it burn — not only stop the vehicle but destroy it.”

U.S. military officials, drawing on their own doctrine, called for artillery to be used to suppress the enemy while mechanized ground forces advanced toward their objective.

“You’ve got to move while you’re firing the artillery,” a senior U.S. defense official said. “That sounds very fundamental, and it is, but that’s how you’ve got to fight. Otherwise, you can’t sustain the quantity of artillery and munitions that you need.”

But Ukrainian officials have said the ubiquity and lethality of different types of drones on both sides of the front line has been the biggest factor preventing the Ukrainians or the Russians from gaining significant ground for months.

“Because of the technical development, everything came to a standstill,” a high-ranking Ukrainian military official said. “The equipment that appears on the battlefield lives for a minute at the most.”

Chaotic battlefield conditions
The 47th claimed the liberation of Robotyne on Aug. 28. Air assault units in Ukraine’s 10th Corps then moved in, but have been unable to liberate any other villages.

The front line has also grown static along the parallel drive in the south, where Ukrainian marines led the push toward the Azov Sea city of Berdyansk. After retaking the villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine in July and August, there have been no further gains, leaving Ukrainian forces far from both Berdyansk and Melitopol.

Throughout the summer, some of the fiercest fighting took place in a few square miles outside the eastern city of Bakhmut, along the third axis of the counteroffensive. Ukrainian war planners saw regaining control of the tiny village of Klishchiivka as key to attaining firing superiority around the southern edges of the city and disrupting Russian supply routes.

In July, police officers belonging to the newly formed Lyut, or “Fury,” Brigade — one of the brigades created last winter ahead of the counteroffensive — were deployed to the area. The brigade, made up of a mix of experienced police officers and recruits, was tasked with storming Russian positions in Klishchiivka, largely using gunfire and grenades.

Video footage of the Lyut Brigade’s operations, which was provided to The Washington Post, and interviews with officers who participated in the fighting reveal the intense and at times chaotic battlefield conditions.

In one bodycam video, from September, soldiers weave in and out of the ruins of homes as heavy shelling booms around them. Moving from one bombed-out house to another, the Ukrainian forces search the wreckage for any remaining Russian troops — screaming out for them to surrender before lobbing grenades into basements.

Days later, on Sept. 17, Ukraine announced that it had retaken Klishchiivka. But its recapture has not moved the lines around Bakhmut in any significant way since.

“Klishchiivka is actually a cemetery of equipment and Russian troops,” said the Lyut Brigade’s commander, police Col. Oleksandr Netrebko. But he also conceded: “Every square meter of liberated land is covered with the blood of our men.”

Frustration builds
With no big breakthrough, U.S. officials became increasingly agitated over the summer that Ukraine was not dedicating enough forces to one of the southern axes, given the American view of its strategic value.

In the north and the east, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky controlled half of Ukraine’s brigades, which ran from Kharkiv through Bakhmut down to Donetsk. Meanwhile, Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky controlled the other half of active brigades, fighting along the two main axes in the south.

U.S. officials viewed the roughly 50-50 split of Ukrainian forces as the wrong mix and wanted more forces shifted to the south. “Of course the enemy is going to try to destroy your mine-clearing vehicles,” the senior U.S. military official said, adding that there were methods to camouflage them, including the use of smoke.

But assessing Kyiv’s approach and urging changes was a delicate task. One officer who did so was Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who as head of the U.S. European Command oversaw much of the Pentagon’s effort to train and equip Ukraine’s army. Milley, by contrast, often struck a more optimistic, motivational tone.

Cavoli, however, couldn’t reach Zaluzhny during part of the summer, a critical phase of the counteroffensive, three people familiar with the matter said. Cavoli declined to comment on the issue. A senior Ukrainian official noted that Zaluzhny spoke to Milley, his direct counterpart, throughout the campaign.

By August, Milley too had begun to air some frustration. He “started saying to Zaluzhny: ‘What are you doing?’” a senior Biden administration official said.

The Ukrainians were insistent that the West simply wasn’t giving them the air power and other weapons needed for a combined arms strategy to succeed. “You want us to to proceed with the counteroffensive, you want us to show the brilliant advances on the front line,” said Olha Stefanishyna, deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine. “But we do not have the fighter jets, meaning that you want us to throw our soldiers, you know, and accept the very fact that we cannot protect them.”

When allies said no, she said, “we heard … ‘We are fine that your soldiers will be dying without support from the sky.’”

In an August video conference, soon followed by an in-person meeting near the Poland-Ukraine border, U.S. military officials pressed their case. They said they understood the logic of preoccupying Russian forces at different points on the front, but argued that deep advances would not come unless the Ukrainians massed more forces at a single point to move quickly and decisively.

Zaluzhny, in response, laid out the challenges in stark terms: no air cover, more mines than expected, and a Russian force that was impressively dug in and moving its reserves around effectively to plug gaps.

“I would not characterize that meeting as a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting and some massive drama — go left, go right,” Milley said in an interview. “I wouldn’t say that. I would say this is the normal course of business where professional leaders … routinely meet to assess the situation and adjustments going on, on the ground.”

In July, as Ukraine ran low on artillery shells and the counteroffensive faltered, the Biden administration shifted position on providing Ukraine with artillery cluster munitions, with the president overruling State Department concerns that the reputational risks were too high given the weapon’s history of killing or wounding civilians. The final key decision on weapons transfers came in September, when the administration agreed to provide a variant of the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS. The missiles were not the deep-strike variant Kyiv had requested, with the United States instead opting for a shorter-range weapon that drops cluster submunitions.

The moral dilemma of sending cluster munitions to Ukraine

While useful, Ukrainian officials said, neither the ATACMS launchers nor the cluster weapons have broken the battlefield deadlock.

Nor have other strategies. Throughout the counteroffensive, Ukraine has continued striking far behind enemy lines in an effort to weaken Russian forces and sow panic within Russian society. Kyiv isn’t permitted to use Western weapons for strikes on Russia, so a fleet of homegrown drones have been used instead. Some have been able to reach targets in Moscow, while others have damaged Russian oil depots along the Black Sea. Naval drones have also successfully hit ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine has recently gained ground in the southern Kherson region, establishing troop positions on the eastern bank of the Dneiper River, but it’s unclear how much weaponry — artillery especially — has been moved across the river to threaten Russian supply lines stemming from Crimea.

Ukraine has stopped asking for more tanks and fighting vehicles, despite intensely lobbying for them throughout the first year of the war.

“A lot of the weapons,” a high-ranking Ukrainian military official said, “they were relevant last year.”

Frozen lines
In late September, in a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was asked why his military continued to commit so many forces to the east rather than the south. Zelensky said that if the Russians lost the east, they would lose the war, according to a person familiar with the conversation.

Zelensky acknowledged differing views among some of his commanders, the person said. But most senior Ukrainian military officials continued to believe that throwing more troops at one part of the front would not force a breakthrough.

Then in mid-October, the Russians tried just that in a fierce assault on the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, which sits in a geographically strategic pocket close to the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. Now it was the Russians on the offensive, with four brigades moving in columns of tanks and personnel carriers, and descending on one narrow strip of the front.

Engineering vehicles with mine sweepers led the charge. It was exactly how the Ukrainians had started their counteroffensive. And similarly, the Russians suffered severe losses — Ukrainian officials claimed that more than 4,000 Russian troops were killed in the first three weeks of the assault — before switching to a dismounted approach, just as the Ukrainians had done.

In early October, the 47th Brigade, after a brief respite from the fighting, was rotated back into the counteroffensive. Zelensky had publicly vowed that Ukraine would continue its push through the winter, when the weather would make any advances even more difficult.

By the end of October, however, the troops of the 47th were suddenly moved east, to defend the northern flank of Avdiivka. The brigade’s Western weapons — German Leopard tanks and American Bradley Fighting Vehicles — went with them.

The relocation to Avdiivka was a surprise for the brigade, but it was also a signal that the operation in Zaporizhzhia was frozen along largely fixed lines. And behind their lines, the Russians had continued to build defensive fortifications over the summer and fall, according to satellite imagery. Around the village of Romanivske, southeast of Robotyne, antitank ditches and concrete pyramids were installed three-deep to blunt any further Ukrainian attempts to advance.

On Nov. 1, in an interview with the Economist, Zaluzhny acknowledged what had been previously unutterable — the war had reached “a stalemate.”

“There will most likely, he said, “be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-stalled-russia-war-defenses/