According to H.G. Wells, “The shape of things to come”, humankind is going to be hit by a massive bacterial plague. Several minor influenza-like plagues are expected first (the first of which is easily identified as Coronavirus). Followed by a bacterial plague that will cause a major drop in world population.

bioRxiv.doi.org/k2pz

I was thinking this on reading a small article in New Scientist about the identification of bacterial diseases in humans dating as far back as 37,000 years ago. (The method they use is fascinating, using data already extracted from sequencing ancient human genomes, but utilising all the genome stuff that is otherwise thrown away because it is not human.)

The dominant human bacterial disease is Yersinia pestis. Also known as the black death.

Yersinia pestis has been found in humans in various parts of Asia as far back as 5700 years ago, and in Scotland 4800 years ago. Lots of plague cases between 6,000 and 3,000 years ago. Then a gap and more 2,000 to 1,800 years ago. Then another gap and the Medieval “Black Death”.

Then another gap and we get to now. What’s the world situation with Yersinia pestis now?

“On January 15, 2018, researchers at the University of Oslo and the University of Ferrara suggested that humans and their parasites (most likely fleas and lice at the time) were the biggest carriers of the plague.”

Between 1970 and 2020, 496 cases were reported in the United States. In 2008, plague was commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, areas that accounted for over 95% of the reported cases.

World, 2013 to 2018

USA, 1970 to 2020

The New Scientist article also mentions other significant highly prevalent human DNA-based diseases. The second most common disease is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borrelia_recurrentis which is spread by pubic lice. Since the 1800s, the pubic louse has been known as its only known vector, though it also infects head lice.

Borrelia recurrentis avoids the human immune system and is commonly recently found in Ethiopia.

Other diseases identified in ancient human genome data include malaria, hepatitis B, leprosy and leptospirosis, also known as Weil’s disease.

So, which and when will be coming back soon?

mollwollfumble said:

According to H.G. Wells, “The shape of things to come”, humankind is going to be hit by a massive bacterial plague. Several minor influenza-like plagues are expected first (the first of which is easily identified as Coronavirus). Followed by a bacterial plague that will cause a major drop in world population.

bioRxiv.doi.org/k2pz

I was thinking this on reading a small article in New Scientist about the identification of bacterial diseases in humans dating as far back as 37,000 years ago. (The method they use is fascinating, using data already extracted from sequencing ancient human genomes, but utilising all the genome stuff that is otherwise thrown away because it is not human.)

The dominant human bacterial disease is Yersinia pestis. Also known as the black death.

Yersinia pestis has been found in humans in various parts of Asia as far back as 5700 years ago, and in Scotland 4800 years ago. Lots of plague cases between 6,000 and 3,000 years ago. Then a gap and more 2,000 to 1,800 years ago. Then another gap and the Medieval “Black Death”.

Then another gap and we get to now. What’s the world situation with Yersinia pestis now?

“On January 15, 2018, researchers at the University of Oslo and the University of Ferrara suggested that humans and their parasites (most likely fleas and lice at the time) were the biggest carriers of the plague.”

Between 1970 and 2020, 496 cases were reported in the United States. In 2008, plague was commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, areas that accounted for over 95% of the reported cases.

World, 2013 to 2018

USA, 1970 to 2020

The New Scientist article also mentions other significant highly prevalent human DNA-based diseases. The second most common disease is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borrelia_recurrentis which is spread by pubic lice. Since the 1800s, the pubic louse has been known as its only known vector, though it also infects head lice.

Borrelia recurrentis avoids the human immune system and is commonly recently found in Ethiopia.

Other diseases identified in ancient human genome data include malaria, hepatitis B, leprosy and leptospirosis, also known as Weil’s disease.

So, which and when will be coming back soon?

Nobody knows.

mollwollfumble said:

According to H.G. Wells, “The shape of things to come”, humankind is going to be hit by a massive bacterial plague. Several minor influenza-like plagues are expected first (the first of which is easily identified as Coronavirus). Followed by a bacterial plague that will cause a major drop in world population.

bioRxiv.doi.org/k2pz

I was thinking this on reading a small article in New Scientist about the identification of bacterial diseases in humans dating as far back as 37,000 years ago. (The method they use is fascinating, using data already extracted from sequencing ancient human genomes, but utilising all the genome stuff that is otherwise thrown away because it is not human.)

The dominant human bacterial disease is Yersinia pestis. Also known as the black death.

Yersinia pestis has been found in humans in various parts of Asia as far back as 5700 years ago, and in Scotland 4800 years ago. Lots of plague cases between 6,000 and 3,000 years ago. Then a gap and more 2,000 to 1,800 years ago. Then another gap and the Medieval “Black Death”.

Then another gap and we get to now. What’s the world situation with Yersinia pestis now?

“On January 15, 2018, researchers at the University of Oslo and the University of Ferrara suggested that humans and their parasites (most likely fleas and lice at the time) were the biggest carriers of the plague.”

Between 1970 and 2020, 496 cases were reported in the United States. In 2008, plague was commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, areas that accounted for over 95% of the reported cases.

World, 2013 to 2018

USA, 1970 to 2020

The New Scientist article also mentions other significant highly prevalent human DNA-based diseases. The second most common disease is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borrelia_recurrentis which is spread by pubic lice. Since the 1800s, the pubic louse has been known as its only known vector, though it also infects head lice.

Borrelia recurrentis avoids the human immune system and is commonly recently found in Ethiopia.

Other diseases identified in ancient human genome data include malaria, hepatitis B, leprosy and leptospirosis, also known as Weil’s disease.

So, which and when will be coming back soon?

Nobody knows.

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

According to H.G. Wells, “The shape of things to come”, humankind is going to be hit by a massive bacterial plague. Several minor influenza-like plagues are expected first (the first of which is easily identified as Coronavirus). Followed by a bacterial plague that will cause a major drop in world population.

bioRxiv.doi.org/k2pz

I was thinking this on reading a small article in New Scientist about the identification of bacterial diseases in humans dating as far back as 37,000 years ago. (The method they use is fascinating, using data already extracted from sequencing ancient human genomes, but utilising all the genome stuff that is otherwise thrown away because it is not human.)

The dominant human bacterial disease is Yersinia pestis. Also known as the black death.

Yersinia pestis has been found in humans in various parts of Asia as far back as 5700 years ago, and in Scotland 4800 years ago. Lots of plague cases between 6,000 and 3,000 years ago. Then a gap and more 2,000 to 1,800 years ago. Then another gap and the Medieval “Black Death”.

Then another gap and we get to now. What’s the world situation with Yersinia pestis now?

“On January 15, 2018, researchers at the University of Oslo and the University of Ferrara suggested that humans and their parasites (most likely fleas and lice at the time) were the biggest carriers of the plague.”

Between 1970 and 2020, 496 cases were reported in the United States. In 2008, plague was commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, areas that accounted for over 95% of the reported cases.

World, 2013 to 2018

USA, 1970 to 2020

The New Scientist article also mentions other significant highly prevalent human DNA-based diseases. The second most common disease is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borrelia_recurrentis which is spread by pubic lice. Since the 1800s, the pubic louse has been known as its only known vector, though it also infects head lice.

Borrelia recurrentis avoids the human immune system and is commonly recently found in Ethiopia.

Other diseases identified in ancient human genome data include malaria, hepatitis B, leprosy and leptospirosis, also known as Weil’s disease.

So, which and when will be coming back soon?

Nobody knows.

To be doubly sure, that is.

I wouldn’t go treating HG Wells like some sort of prophet.

We are much better equipped these days to cope with any new outbreak of disease. Covid gave us a good run for our money. There is plenty of analysis and lessons learned going on since then, we know what to do. Only the stupid will die through not heeding the science.

I’m not sure that H G Wells is up there in the list of esteemed microbiologists. Did he predict our current viral catastrophe?

You might find the following book interesting Moll.

“A Short History of Disease. Plagues, Poxes and Civilisations” by Sean Martin.

With plenty of further reading in the bibliography.

party_pants said:

I wouldn’t go treating HG Wells like some sort of prophet.

We are much better equipped these days to cope with any new outbreak of disease. Covid gave us a good run for our money. There is plenty of analysis and lessons learned going on since then, we know what to do. Only the stupid will die through not heeding the science.

Covid is still ongoing, I’m not sure the response was overly successful, (royal) we just kinda ignore it now.
You could ask SCIENCE though, seems to hold a special place in their heart…

Broadly speaking the medical profession has a good handle on how to treat bacterial infections and how to limit their transmission.

It’s not like a retrovirus, for instance, which takes a permanent place in your biomechanical operating system.

I’m thinking CWD chronic wasting disease

Like BSE the prion involved is long lasting and resistant. An infected elk in America can infect other elks via its urine being absorbed by plants that other elks eat.

Humans might well need to retreat to an aeon flux situation where humans need to lived with a safe zone with controlled food and water sourced.

The other option is malaria, as the world heats up ( global warming theory) mosquitoes will travel into hitherto death zones for mosquitoes ( too cold), mosquitoes borne neurological diseases

Or

Intelligence agency genetic weapon to breed only males ( no females to breed with).

wookiemeister said:

Or

Intelligence agency genetic weapon to breed only males ( no females to breed with).

Or you make all females sterile

Emma’s ghost appears to Craven and tells him of a time when black flowers grew, warming the Earth and preventing life from becoming extinct. She tells him that the black flowers have returned and will melt the polar icecaps, destroying mankind so that life can continue. Craven goes to dissuade Jedburgh from the next step in his plan, which is to cause a nuclear explosion in Scotland with the rest of the plutonium. He succeeds, though the secret service follow him and kill Jedburgh. Craven, who like Jedburgh and Grogan has been fatally exposed to radiation, wanders into the mountains to die, calling Emma’s name. On the mountains, as Emma predicted, the black flowers are growing, foreshadowing the planet’s defensive war against humanity. (Aired 9 December 1985).

Edge of darkness

wookiemeister said:

Emma’s ghost appears to Craven and tells him of a time when black flowers grew, warming the Earth and preventing life from becoming extinct. She tells him that the black flowers have returned and will melt the polar icecaps, destroying mankind so that life can continue. Craven goes to dissuade Jedburgh from the next step in his plan, which is to cause a nuclear explosion in Scotland with the rest of the plutonium. He succeeds, though the secret service follow him and kill Jedburgh. Craven, who like Jedburgh and Grogan has been fatally exposed to radiation, wanders into the mountains to die, calling Emma’s name. On the mountains, as Emma predicted, the black flowers are growing, foreshadowing the planet’s defensive war against humanity. (Aired 9 December 1985).

Edge of darkness

Google daisy world

wookiemeister said:

wookiemeister said:

Emma’s ghost appears to Craven and tells him of a time when black flowers grew, warming the Earth and preventing life from becoming extinct. She tells him that the black flowers have returned and will melt the polar icecaps, destroying mankind so that life can continue. Craven goes to dissuade Jedburgh from the next step in his plan, which is to cause a nuclear explosion in Scotland with the rest of the plutonium. He succeeds, though the secret service follow him and kill Jedburgh. Craven, who like Jedburgh and Grogan has been fatally exposed to radiation, wanders into the mountains to die, calling Emma’s name. On the mountains, as Emma predicted, the black flowers are growing, foreshadowing the planet’s defensive war against humanity. (Aired 9 December 1985).

Edge of darkness

Google daisy world

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisyworld

wookiemeister said:

The other option is malaria, as the world heats up ( global warming theory) mosquitoes will travel into hitherto death zones for mosquitoes ( too cold), mosquitoes borne neurological diseases

Or as the world heats up the ice melts and releases long lost virii and bacteria into our fragile, weak, and susceptible host bodies.

Arts said:

wookiemeister said:

The other option is malaria, as the world heats up ( global warming theory) mosquitoes will travel into hitherto death zones for mosquitoes ( too cold), mosquitoes borne neurological diseases

Or as the world heats up the ice melts and releases long lost virii and bacteria into our fragile, weak, and susceptible host bodies.

That’s another possibility

Malaria was once very much more prevalent than it is today, including large parts of the USA and Western Europe. It has largely been eradicated in those places today. The highest correlation for the prevalence of malaria is with wealth and development index of a region, rather than climate. It is a negative correlation of course, the wealthier and more developed a region is, the more likely that they will have very low rates of malaria.

I am not concerned about malaria spreading because of climate change. Climate is not the determining factor.

party_pants said:

Malaria was once very much more prevalent than it is today, including large parts of the USA and Western Europe. It has largely been eradicated in those places today. The highest correlation for the prevalence of malaria is with wealth and development index of a region, rather than climate. It is a negative correlation of course, the wealthier and more developed a region is, the more likely that they will have very low rates of malaria.

I am not concerned about malaria spreading because of climate change. Climate is not the determining factor.

Studies show that warmer temperatures associated with climate change can accelerate mosquito development, biting rates, and the incubation of the disease within a mosquito. The effect of climate change on the timing of bird migration and breeding patterns may also contribute to changes in long-range virus movement.13 Oct 2023

wookiemeister said:

party_pants said:

Malaria was once very much more prevalent than it is today, including large parts of the USA and Western Europe. It has largely been eradicated in those places today. The highest correlation for the prevalence of malaria is with wealth and development index of a region, rather than climate. It is a negative correlation of course, the wealthier and more developed a region is, the more likely that they will have very low rates of malaria.

I am not concerned about malaria spreading because of climate change. Climate is not the determining factor.

Studies show that warmer temperatures associated with climate change can accelerate mosquito development, biting rates, and the incubation of the disease within a mosquito. The effect of climate change on the timing of bird migration and breeding patterns may also contribute to changes in long-range virus movement.13 Oct 2023

Interestingly though, some conditions are too hot so further warming could drive disease transmission down, said Dr. Matthew Thomas, professor of entomology and nematology at the University of Florida

If global warming is really increasing atmospheric volatility perhaps you’ll see more plagues as crop failures occur. Crop failures herald the arrival of disease, the black death in 1347 was preceded by a succession of crop failures, by the time it arrived in Europe the population was weak from hunger.

OCDC said:

I’m not sure that H G Wells is up there in the list of esteemed microbiologists. Did he predict our current viral catastrophe?

Yes. He did predict our current viral catastrophe.

But, writing in 1889, he placed it in the year 1955 (66 years into his future) instead of in the year 2020 (121 years into his future).

mollwollfumble said:

OCDC said:

I’m not sure that H G Wells is up there in the list of esteemed microbiologists. Did he predict our current viral catastrophe?

Yes. He did predict our current viral catastrophe.

But, writing in 1889, he placed it in the year 1955 (66 years into his future) instead of in the year 2020 (121 years into his future).

So he got it way wrong then.

Have you ever read the Book of Revelation? You’d love it. It is full of wrong prophecies which never came to fruition. But there is a whole industry of people out there trying to turn failure into proof, if you just interpret the words different to their literal meaning.

mollwollfumble said:

OCDC said:

I’m not sure that H G Wells is up there in the list of esteemed microbiologists. Did he predict our current viral catastrophe?

Yes. He did predict our current viral catastrophe.

But, writing in 1889, he placed it in the year 1955 (66 years into his future) instead of in the year 2020 (121 years into his future).

So he didn’t actually predict it…

Please provide evidence that he predicted viruses specifically. According to current scientific (not fictional) knowledge, viruses are not definitely identified until after 1889. If he did in fact discover viruses, biological textbooks need to be rewritten.

party_pants said:

mollwollfumble said:

OCDC said:

I’m not sure that H G Wells is up there in the list of esteemed microbiologists. Did he predict our current viral catastrophe?

Yes. He did predict our current viral catastrophe.

But, writing in 1889, he placed it in the year 1955 (66 years into his future) instead of in the year 2020 (121 years into his future).

So he got it way wrong then.

Have you ever read the Book of Revelation? You’d love it. It is full of wrong prophecies which never came to fruition. But there is a whole industry of people out there trying to turn failure into proof, if you just interpret the words different to their literal meaning.

Moll’s already devoted some time to bible study for his atheist version.