A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032?CMP=soc_567

dv said:

A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032?CMP=soc_567

The asteroid ranks as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that merits attention from astronomers because there is a 1% or greater chance of a collision in the next decade that would inflict “localised destruction”. The Torino scale ranges from zero, when there is no risk, to 10 when a collision is certain and poses a threat to the future of civilisation as we know it.

That’s all I know.

dv said:

it has a chance of colliding with Earth in

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032

sure fine right now can yous give that to us in SI or what

Peak Warming Man said:

dv said:

A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032?CMP=soc_567

The asteroid ranks as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that merits attention from astronomers because there is a 1% or greater chance of a collision in the next decade that would inflict “localised destruction”. The Torino scale ranges from zero, when there is no risk, to 10 when a collision is certain and poses a threat to the future of civilisation as we know it.

That’s all I know.

Good point well made

>“Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,” said Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh.

Ta for that, Professor Snodgrass.

dv said:

A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032?CMP=soc_567

I was a bit short on regular concerns this week, so imagine my appreciation of a low probability asteroid impact in seven or eight years or whatever, my abacus is all stuck together with saliva and looking a bit chewed so i’m feeling all dysmathtic and exhausted that way presently, anyways a small asteroid too, now i’m sure it’ll be going fast, like a kinetic energy bomb, .5Mx(V^2) would reveal its secret power, the exponentiation in that will come to get you

transition said:

dv said:

A 100 metre-wide asteroid has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time after telescope observations revealed it has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted by an automated telescope in Chile on 27 December last year but has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032?CMP=soc_567

I was a bit short on regular concerns this week, so imagine my appreciation of a low probability asteroid impact in seven or eight years or whatever, my abacus is all stuck together with saliva and looking a bit chewed so i’m feeling all dysmathtic and exhausted that way presently, anyways a small asteroid too, now i’m sure it’ll be going fast, like a kinetic energy bomb, .5Mx(V^2) would reveal its secret power, the exponentiation in that will come to get you

so it’s a diversion from the fascist takeover we like that

Normally the probability of these things monotonically decreases in the months after discovery as more data comes in, but this one is on the increase.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

Ominous.

dv said:

Normally the probability of these things monotonically decreases in the months after discovery as more data comes in, but this one is on the increase.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

I’ll be interested to see where it is at in ay 5 or 6 years time?
or, would we need to have coordinated a defensive strategy to intercept and change its orbit a little earlier?

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Normally the probability of these things monotonically decreases in the months after discovery as more data comes in, but this one is on the increase.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

I’ll be interested to see where it is at in ay 5 or 6 years time?
or, would we need to have coordinated a defensive strategy to intercept and change its orbit a little earlier?

Even at the best of times I don’t think we’d have the tech to do anything but certainly in these days I am not sure there is enough goodwill internationally to organise a bake sale. President-for-life Trump will no doubt withdraw from the Tunguska Treaty.

dv said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Normally the probability of these things monotonically decreases in the months after discovery as more data comes in, but this one is on the increase.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

I’ll be interested to see where it is at in ay 5 or 6 years time?
or, would we need to have coordinated a defensive strategy to intercept and change its orbit a little earlier?

Even at the best of times I don’t think we’d have the tech to do anything but certainly in these days I am not sure there is enough goodwill internationally to organise a bake sale. President-for-life Trump will no doubt withdraw from the Tunguska Treaty.

Elon will come to our rescue!

dv said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

Normally the probability of these things monotonically decreases in the months after discovery as more data comes in, but this one is on the increase.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

I’ll be interested to see where it is at in ay 5 or 6 years time?
or, would we need to have coordinated a defensive strategy to intercept and change its orbit a little earlier?

Even at the best of times I don’t think we’d have the tech to do anything but certainly in these days I am not sure there is enough goodwill internationally to organise a bake sale. President-for-life Trump will no doubt withdraw from the Tunguska Treaty.

Sad but appropriate.

Maybe the seven trumpets will sound, after all.

Boris said:

dv said:

roughbarked said:

I’ll be interested to see where it is at in ay 5 or 6 years time?
or, would we need to have coordinated a defensive strategy to intercept and change its orbit a little earlier?

Even at the best of times I don’t think we’d have the tech to do anything but certainly in these days I am not sure there is enough goodwill internationally to organise a bake sale. President-for-life Trump will no doubt withdraw from the Tunguska Treaty.

Elon will come to our rescue!

He’ll be fucking off in his own returnable flying saucer.

God damn I’m even polluting my own threads. If I were me I’d be very disappointed.

dv said:

God damn I’m even polluting my own threads. If I were me I’d be very disappointed.

I’m afraid, this is all on you.

roughbarked said:

dv said:

God damn I’m even polluting my own threads. If I were me I’d be very disappointed.

I’m afraid, this is all on you.

hopefully the asteroid will be as well

dv said:

God damn I’m even polluting my own threads. If I were me I’d be very disappointed.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real dv?

roughbarked said:

Boris said:

dv said:

Even at the best of times I don’t think we’d have the tech to do anything but certainly in these days I am not sure there is enough goodwill internationally to organise a bake sale. President-for-life Trump will no doubt withdraw from the Tunguska Treaty.

Elon will come to our rescue!

He’ll be fucking off in his own returnable flying saucer.

yes please

dv said:

roughbarked said:

dv said:

God damn I’m even polluting my own threads. If I were me I’d be very disappointed.

I’m afraid, this is all on you.

hopefully the asteroid will be as well

I’m probably unlikely to be here but looking back, I never thought I’d see the year 2000

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

Boris said:

Elon will come to our rescue!

He’ll be fucking off in his own returnable flying saucer.

yes please

After I edited it.. then yes.

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

He’ll be fucking off in his own returnable flying saucer.

yes please

After I edited it.. then yes.

no need, consider the performance of spa cex reusable rockets, the odds will be good

SCIENCE said:

roughbarked said:

SCIENCE said:

yes please

After I edited it.. then yes.

no need, consider the performance of spa cex reusable rockets, the odds will be good

heh.

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

You can’t get asteroids to do earth works, sheesh.

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

From what I’ve learned about such events, it’s going to going to hit New York and so not a concern for us.

Spiny Norman said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

From what I’ve learned about such events, it’s going to going to hit New York and so not a concern for us.

“ …events in movies, “

Peak Warming Man said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

You can’t get asteroids to do earth works, sheesh.

The crate would have to be made of Gopher wood.

Spiny Norman said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

From what I’ve learned about such events, it’s going to going to hit New York and so not a concern for us.

But Bruce Willis is crook so who can save us?

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

d’n‘o’ but if you wanted to kill some dinosaurs you’d use a 10 km diameter rock and it’d leave a hole 200 km in diameter

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

“city size”

say a couple of km

Peak Warming Man said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

You can’t get asteroids to do earth works, sheesh.

Good idea. I’d need it to touch down within about 0.3m of the target. I’ll have to install GPS on it.

Best excavator ever.

The neighbours might complain though.

party_pants said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

“city size”

say a couple of km

Well city size could mean Perth, or the Vatican. Like how many refrigerators is it?

A couple of km is a bit much for a housepad. Can I order asteroid lite instead?

Kingy said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

You can’t get asteroids to do earth works, sheesh.

Good idea. I’d need it to touch down within about 0.3m of the target. I’ll have to install GPS on it.

Best excavator ever.

The neighbours might complain though.

Like the ppl living around the Gulf of America?

Tamb said:

Kingy said:

Peak Warming Man said:

You can’t get asteroids to do earth works, sheesh.

Good idea. I’d need it to touch down within about 0.3m of the target. I’ll have to install GPS on it.

Best excavator ever.

The neighbours might complain though.

Like the ppl living around the Gulf of America?

Yes, I was thinking more specifically about the people living around Mar-a-lago.

Kingy said:

Tamb said:

Kingy said:

Good idea. I’d need it to touch down within about 0.3m of the target. I’ll have to install GPS on it.

Best excavator ever.

The neighbours might complain though.

Like the ppl living around the Gulf of America?

Yes, I was thinking more specifically about the people living around Mar-a-lago.

The Chick-fil-A Crater

Kingy said:

So do we have an estimate of the size of the crate it could create?

Its dimensions are not precisely known but it appears to be somewhat similar to Tunguska impactor in diameter, and the impact would probably be somewhat slower. There was no crater per se in Tunguska: the object exploded in the atmosphere, devastating a broad area. Exactly what would happen in this case would depend on composition, dimensions, angle of impact etc.

Likely potential impact path, as computed by Daniel Bamberger of Northolt Branch Observatories

Asteroid Watch: Keeping an Eye on Near-Earth Objects

List of asteroid close approaches to Earth