There is a high probability Cyclone Alfred, currently around 1,000 kilometres offshore, will cross one of the most highly populated stretches of the Australian coast next week.

While the Bureau of Meteorology’s official forecast track only extends four days ahead, weather models, which predict pressure systems up to two weeks in advance, are in solid agreement the system will turn towards Queensland this weekend.

This movement west should lead to Alfred’s final destination next week somewhere in the vicinity of the east coast, most likely between about Brisbane and Townsville — a path which could include a direct hit on Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Gladstone or the Sunshine Coast.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/cyclone-alfred-queensland-coast-predicted-to-hit-bom/104981870

Anecdote alert! 🚨

I broke my arm 40 years ago. I’ve not an iota of trouble with it since. But the past few days, where I broke it has been a bit achy. And, this morning on my walk, I saw a lot of birds behaving in a strange manner. Just sayin.

Divine Angel said:

Anecdote alert! 🚨

I broke my arm 40 years ago. I’ve not an iota of trouble with it since. But the past few days, where I broke it has been a bit achy. And, this morning on my walk, I saw a lot of birds behaving in a strange manner. Just sayin.

Surely you were about -5 then.

Or has time been flying by quicker than I realised?

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

Anecdote alert! 🚨

I broke my arm 40 years ago. I’ve not an iota of trouble with it since. But the past few days, where I broke it has been a bit achy. And, this morning on my walk, I saw a lot of birds behaving in a strange manner. Just sayin.

Surely you were about -5 then.

Or has time been flying by quicker than I realised?

In just four short years the govt starts sending me free bowel cancer testing kits.

From the link:

“ A final word from AI — look out Brisbane

Artificial Intelligence models are now challenging traditional models for accuracy.

Rather than solving trillions of mathematical equations which represent the atmosphere, they just look for trends after being trained on decades of weather maps.

There’s too many AI models to cover, but one of the best is GraphCast from Google DeepMind, and for what its worth by Tuesday next week, it places Alfred less than 200km off the coast of Brisbane”

Divine Angel said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

Anecdote alert! 🚨

I broke my arm 40 years ago. I’ve not an iota of trouble with it since. But the past few days, where I broke it has been a bit achy. And, this morning on my walk, I saw a lot of birds behaving in a strange manner. Just sayin.

Surely you were about -5 then.

Or has time been flying by quicker than I realised?

In just four short years the govt starts sending me free bowel cancer testing kits.

Lucky you :)

How old is mini-me now?

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Surely you were about -5 then.

Or has time been flying by quicker than I realised?

In just four short years the govt starts sending me free bowel cancer testing kits.

Lucky you :)

How old is mini-me now?

10, just started grade 5.

Divine Angel said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

In just four short years the govt starts sending me free bowel cancer testing kits.

Lucky you :)

How old is mini-me now?

10, just started grade 5.

Teenage years not far away then. (Lucky you again :)).

Same age as my youngest grandson, so I might remember that.

Divine Angel said:

There is a high probability Cyclone Alfred, currently around 1,000 kilometres offshore, will cross one of the most highly populated stretches of the Australian coast next week.

While the Bureau of Meteorology’s official forecast track only extends four days ahead, weather models, which predict pressure systems up to two weeks in advance, are in solid agreement the system will turn towards Queensland this weekend.

This movement west should lead to Alfred’s final destination next week somewhere in the vicinity of the east coast, most likely between about Brisbane and Townsville — a path which could include a direct hit on Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Gladstone or the Sunshine Coast.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/cyclone-alfred-queensland-coast-predicted-to-hit-bom/104981870

At least Willis Island seems to have missed out on being smashed again.

captain_spalding said:

At least Willis Island seems to have missed out on being smashed again.

Never mind the category system, introduce a “how badly did Willis Island get smashed?” system.

I assume Batman cannot help as its conflict of interest

Alf could be an alien cyclone.

Current picture on the earth wind site

Peak Warming Man said:

Alf could be an alien cyclone.

It’s my maternal grandfather. The shearer.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Lucky you :)

How old is mini-me now?

10, just started grade 5.

Teenage years not far away then. (Lucky you again :)).

Same age as my youngest grandson, so I might remember that.

I dont know why people tease others about ‘teenage years’ .. they are the best… much better than the ever demanding five years olds

Arts said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Divine Angel said:

10, just started grade 5.

Teenage years not far away then. (Lucky you again :)).

Same age as my youngest grandson, so I might remember that.

I dont know why people tease others about ‘teenage years’ .. they are the best… much better than the ever demanding five years olds

Nah.

Witty Rejoinder said:

Arts said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

Teenage years not far away then. (Lucky you again :)).

Same age as my youngest grandson, so I might remember that.

I dont know why people tease others about ‘teenage years’ .. they are the best… much better than the ever demanding five years olds

Nah.

absolutely they are.

Arts said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Arts said:

I dont know why people tease others about ‘teenage years’ .. they are the best… much better than the ever demanding five years olds

Nah.

absolutely they are.

For you and your family.
Others have different circumstances and experiences.

Arts said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Arts said:

I dont know why people tease others about ‘teenage years’ .. they are the best… much better than the ever demanding five years olds

Nah.

absolutely they are.

Some people like demanding.

kii said:

Arts said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Nah.

absolutely they are.

For you and your family.
Others have different circumstances and experiences.

in that case then the teasing absolutely is redundant

kii said:

Arts said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

Nah.

absolutely they are.

For you and your family.
Others have different circumstances and experiences.

Teenage years were OK
Fun with friends and little responsibility
The peer related nastiness can undermine your confidence for life
Even though it means nothing once school is finished.

The first ten years of life are the most important for a person’s development. Every day is different and you get to witness the most wonderful transformation. Teenagers are just meh.

none of the last few posts have anything to do with cyclones.

ChrispenEvan said:

none of the last few posts have anything to do with cyclones.

well sorry

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified into a category three system, as it tracks south off the Queensland coast.

The cyclone was 860 kilometres north-east of Mackay at 4:00am this morning.

A strong wind warning has been issued for the Townsville, Mackay, Capricornia, Hervey Bay and K’gari Coast.

And a hazardous surf warning is in place for the Capricornia and K’gari coasts.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-27/tropical-cyclone-alfred-intensifies-into-category-three-system/104962212

• For you spelling pedants out there, drink of shot every time you spot a spelling mistake in the linked article.

As I walk through this life, I find that cyclones don’t always do what the media want.

BOM skipped Anthony, next name on the list, and went with Alfred instead. In 16 cyclones’ time, we’re due to have Cyclone Peta; BOM declined to speculate on changing that name for Peter Dutton.

https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/cyclone-anthony-alfred-bom/

Possible path for TC Alfred next week.

Peak Warming Man said:

As I walk through this life, I find that cyclones don’t always do what the media want.

LOL

Peak Warming Man said:

As I walk through this life, I find that cyclones don’t always do what the media want.

I see the BoM has up-classified Alfred to Cat 3 and are predicting it to become a Cat 4 storm by morning.

Alfred’s been up-classified again to a Cat 4, earlier than expected. Predicted path has changed quite a bit, too.

Michael V said:

Alfred’s been up-classified again to a Cat 4, earlier than expected. Predicted path has changed quite a bit, too.

Not sorry to not be living on the coast near Bundaberg any more.

Yeah, supposed to stay well off shore too.

Divine Angel said:

Yeah, supposed to stay well off shore too.

“…supposed to…”

>>Two more cyclones appear off Australia’s coast, joining Tropical Cyclone Alfred

It’s,,,,gulp…….it’s starting to breed.

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Two more cyclones appear off Australia’s coast, joining Tropical Cyclone Alfred

It’s,,,,gulp…….it’s starting to breed.

Reference?

Michael V said:

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Two more cyclones appear off Australia’s coast, joining Tropical Cyclone Alfred

It’s,,,,gulp…….it’s starting to breed.

Reference?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-updates-strengthened-to-category-3-strong-winds-waves-in-queensland/742a9a8c-97d2-4ac0-a4dc-3b376e86dbe7#:~:text=While%20Queensland%20waits%20to%20see,the%20south%2Deast%20of%20Fiji.

Peak Warming Man said:

Michael V said:

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Two more cyclones appear off Australia’s coast, joining Tropical Cyclone Alfred

It’s,,,,gulp…….it’s starting to breed.

Reference?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-updates-strengthened-to-category-3-strong-winds-waves-in-queensland/742a9a8c-97d2-4ac0-a4dc-3b376e86dbe7#:~:text=While%20Queensland%20waits%20to%20see,the%20south%2Deast%20of%20Fiji.

Bad reporting.

Both the others (Seru and Rae?) have been and gone. Like the dead parrot sketch – they are ex-tropical cyclones.

Michael V said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Michael V said:

Reference?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-updates-strengthened-to-category-3-strong-winds-waves-in-queensland/742a9a8c-97d2-4ac0-a4dc-3b376e86dbe7#:~:text=While%20Queensland%20waits%20to%20see,the%20south%2Deast%20of%20Fiji.

Bad reporting.

Both the others (Seru and Rae?) have been and gone. Like the dead parrot sketch – they are ex-tropical cyclones.

Never let that get in the way of a good headline.

Peak Warming Man said:

Michael V said:

Peak Warming Man said:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-updates-strengthened-to-category-3-strong-winds-waves-in-queensland/742a9a8c-97d2-4ac0-a4dc-3b376e86dbe7#:~:text=While%20Queensland%20waits%20to%20see,the%20south%2Deast%20of%20Fiji.

Bad reporting.

Both the others (Seru and Rae?) have been and gone. Like the dead parrot sketch – they are ex-tropical cyclones.

Never let that get in the way of a good headline.

Hell no.

Got a weather alert for higher-than-normal tides and possible strong winds.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been revised down to a category three storm after intensifying into a category four system last night.

The cyclone was 770 kilometres north-east of Rockhampton at 4am today, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

A strong wind warning issued for Townsville, Mackay, Capricornia, Hervey Bay and K’gari remains in place.

According to the latest update, Alfred has sustained winds of 155 kilometres per hour at its centre with wind gusts of 220kph.

The BOM says it is increasingly confident Alfred will stay offshore, but how close the storm will come to Queensland’s southern coast remains unclear.

“In terms of its track, it’s expected to continue moving south until the weekend,” Senior meteorologist Shane Kennedy said.

“On Saturday it may briefly have a bit of a turn towards the south-west before most likely turning back south-east on Sunday and then continuing on that south-easterly track early next week.”

Mr Kennedy said it was likely Alfred would remain well offshore as it travelled south but there were a range of scenarios that could play out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-27/tropical-cyclone-alfred-category-three-system-queensland-coast/104988230

I see Ex TC Alfred will go wandering past me.. according to this model.

Ian said:

I see Ex TC Alfred will go wandering past me.. according to this model.

Here. Have a few grains of salt.

A Sunshine Coast community group has raised concerns that Tropical Cyclone Alfred could have a devastating impact on the northern tip of Bribie after water was seen gushing over the island.

Meanwhile, Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service is not accepting camping bookings in the protected areas, with refunds available for those who have already booked.

While Tropical Cyclone Alfred has not made landfall, K’gari and Inskip have experienced significant coastal erosion due to worsening weather conditions, the Department of Environment and Science said.

Increased rainfall and strong gale force winds are expected to impact the region over the weekend.

It comes as Member for Caloundra Kendall Morton MP organised a visit to the northern section of Bribie Island yesterday alongside Pumicestone Passage Catchment Management Body (PPCMB) members, amid fears a part of the island could break through as a result of severe weather generated by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

However, on arrival at the island, the group observed a huge tide surge and more than a metre of water running over the area of concern, just south of Lions Park.
The northern tip of Bribie Island was broken into two in January 2022 after Ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth, and then a king tide, generated waves that smashed through the landmass to create two separate islands.

PPCMB spokeswoman Jen Kettleton-Butler described witnessing the moment on Thursday as “incredibly shocking”.

“When we arrived (Thursday) at 7.30am, the area we have been monitoring, just south of the Lions Park, was running over with a metre of water and a huge tide surge,” she said.

“We couldn’t get there because a metre deep and 10m wide channel had formed.
“It had literally just broken through and a torrent of water was rushing through.

“The moment was incredibly shocking to witness. What we took Kendall (Morton) there to show no longer exists.”

Ms Kettleton-Butler added that if a further significant breakthrough occurs it puts Sunshine Coast suburbs Caloundra and Golden Beach at risk to significant storm surges and coastal erosion.

“The PPCMB is incredibly concerned for the future of Caloundra and Golden Beach if urgent action is not taken to restore and stabilise our waterway,” she said.

“Golden Beach and Caloundra were developed from the 1950s onwards under the assumption of the ongoing protection from Bribie Island – a natural barrier island that has protected the Caloundra suburbs … from inundation, erosion, and storm surge.

“What’s even more concerning is that within a week, we may see that risk crystallise into a real-life nightmare, as Golden Beach and Caloundra would be sitting ducks if Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossed or lingered near the Sunshine Coast. ***

The URL is behind a paywall but I was able to read the whole article on Apple News. This article is from The Courier Mail.

Current wind map from the earth site:

Bit of a breeze here but I’ll pull the fountain head out of the pond anyway. Lose too much water when the wind blows the fountain water everywhere.

Divine Angel said:

A Sunshine Coast community group has raised concerns that Tropical Cyclone Alfred could have a devastating impact on the northern tip of Bribie after water was seen gushing over the island.

Meanwhile, Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service is not accepting camping bookings in the protected areas, with refunds available for those who have already booked.

While Tropical Cyclone Alfred has not made landfall, K’gari and Inskip have experienced significant coastal erosion due to worsening weather conditions, the Department of Environment and Science said.

Increased rainfall and strong gale force winds are expected to impact the region over the weekend.

It comes as Member for Caloundra Kendall Morton MP organised a visit to the northern section of Bribie Island yesterday alongside Pumicestone Passage Catchment Management Body (PPCMB) members, amid fears a part of the island could break through as a result of severe weather generated by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

However, on arrival at the island, the group observed a huge tide surge and more than a metre of water running over the area of concern, just south of Lions Park.
The northern tip of Bribie Island was broken into two in January 2022 after Ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth, and then a king tide, generated waves that smashed through the landmass to create two separate islands.

PPCMB spokeswoman Jen Kettleton-Butler described witnessing the moment on Thursday as “incredibly shocking”.

“When we arrived (Thursday) at 7.30am, the area we have been monitoring, just south of the Lions Park, was running over with a metre of water and a huge tide surge,” she said.

“We couldn’t get there because a metre deep and 10m wide channel had formed.
“It had literally just broken through and a torrent of water was rushing through.

“The moment was incredibly shocking to witness. What we took Kendall (Morton) there to show no longer exists.”

Ms Kettleton-Butler added that if a further significant breakthrough occurs it puts Sunshine Coast suburbs Caloundra and Golden Beach at risk to significant storm surges and coastal erosion.

“The PPCMB is incredibly concerned for the future of Caloundra and Golden Beach if urgent action is not taken to restore and stabilise our waterway,” she said.

“Golden Beach and Caloundra were developed from the 1950s onwards under the assumption of the ongoing protection from Bribie Island – a natural barrier island that has protected the Caloundra suburbs … from inundation, erosion, and storm surge.

“What’s even more concerning is that within a week, we may see that risk crystallise into a real-life nightmare, as Golden Beach and Caloundra would be sitting ducks if Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossed or lingered near the Sunshine Coast. ***

The URL is behind a paywall but I was able to read the whole article on Apple News. This article is from The Courier Mail.

Bit of a beat-up. Sand islands tend to erode and re-establish. Golden Beach and Caloundra are not threatened until the barrier island is mostly or completely gone.

Divine Angel said:

Bit of a breeze here but I’ll pull the fountain head out of the pond anyway. Lose too much water when the wind blows the fountain water everywhere.

Look, I’m no there to tell you how to live… but maybe don’t pull it apart….

Arts said:

Divine Angel said:

Bit of a breeze here but I’ll pull the fountain head out of the pond anyway. Lose too much water when the wind blows the fountain water everywhere.

Look, I’m not there to tell you how to live… but maybe don’t pull it apart….

:)

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

The further south it gets, the less power it should have. So it it just keeps on cruising down between Aus & NZ that’ll be great thanks.

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

With just a slight change of name you could repost that in the US Politics thread.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

Bit like the last time around..

Tropical Cyclone Alfred
3 – 8 March 1986

The Rev Dodgson said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

With just a slight change of name you could repost that in the US Politics thread.

:)

Ian said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

Bit like the last time around..

Tropical Cyclone Alfred
3 – 8 March 1986

Ha!

Ian said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

From Wednesday, there was a “broad range” of possibilities for which direction Alfred could move.

Mr How said tropical cyclones would generally move quickly and dissipate once they moved into the southern Coral Sea, but Alfred was “meandering”.

“That’s due to a large high-pressure system to the south over the Tasman Sea that’s providing a bit of a block, preventing Alfred from moving down towards New Zealand,” he said.

“Alfred tries to get a bit of move on to the south, but the high-pressure system comes in and goes ‘no, you’re staying there’ so it wobbles back.”

He said it was possible the high could “shove Alfred onto the coast” next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-01/cyclone-alfred-latest-queensland-weather-forecast/104994782

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

Bit like the last time around..

Tropical Cyclone Alfred
3 – 8 March 1986

Blimey, where did you find that?

Peak Warming Man said:

Ian said:

Michael V said:

Blocking high pressure systems have been steering Alfred from his inception, making the future path quite unpredictable.

Bit like the last time around..

Tropical Cyclone Alfred
3 – 8 March 1986

Blimey, where did you find that?

on the internet most likely.

TLDR: powerful waves, high tides, and gusts of up to 90kph lash the Qld coast. Due to ease today before the cyclone turns towards the coast again on Tuesday, roughly in line with Brisbane, according to the model. The northern tip of Bribie Island where it protects Golden Beach in Caloundra has been severely eroded, as have other parts of the coastline, particularly around Bundaberg.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-02/severe-tropical-cyclone-alfred-continues-to-lash-queensland/104998456

We actually stayed at Golden Beach the weekend before school started. Just six weeks later, the place we stayed has water lapping at its front door (well, almost).

Divine Angel said:

TLDR: powerful waves, high tides, and gusts of up to 90kph lash the Qld coast. Due to ease today before the cyclone turns towards the coast again on Tuesday, roughly in line with Brisbane, according to the model. The northern tip of Bribie Island where it protects Golden Beach in Caloundra has been severely eroded, as have other parts of the coastline, particularly around Bundaberg.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-02/severe-tropical-cyclone-alfred-continues-to-lash-queensland/104998456

We actually stayed at Golden Beach the weekend before school started. Just six weeks later, the place we stayed has water lapping at its front door (well, almost).

Saw that shot. A bigger wave would wash the floors for them.

This does not fill me with confidence.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ Current as of time of posting, obviously.

Divine Angel said:

This does not fill me with confidence.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ Current as of time of posting, obviously.

Hopefully it’ll weaken as it moves south.

Still a lot of wind and a lot of rain and I’m 3m above sea level 😬 But if the “rain bomb” a few years ago didn’t flood me, a cyclone, or tropical low, won’t either.

My sister works for the state government’s energy dept so she’s kept up to date with the very latest information. Hopefully she’ll remember to tell me lol

Don’t worry, I am absolutely taking this one with lots of grains of salt. From Brisbane Weather Facebook page, which seems a bit like Higgins Storm Chasing.

“ HEADS UP

Tropical cyclone Alfred has weakened to a Cat 2 system as it enter an area of unfavorable conditions. This system could weaken to a cat 1 system later today. However, it’s expected to re-intensify back to a cat 2 system and possible a cat 3 before landfall

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall at this stage around Redcliffe

Tropical cyclone Alfred Data if it crosses as a Cat 2:

Average winds 89-117km/h with wind gusts up to 164km/h
Alfred is capable of producing very heavy rainfall which could lead to dangerous flooding

People south of about Hervey Bay should start preparing from today as this system is predicted to cross the coast some time on Wednesday maybe Thursday

Sandbags are available with some councils if you think they may be required. Please contact your local council”

Er, I hope this is a typo.

Divine Angel said:

This does not fill me with confidence.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ Current as of time of posting, obviously.

Yes. Each model’s outcome is quite varied, and change significantly every 6 hours.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

This does not fill me with confidence.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ Current as of time of posting, obviously.

Yes. Each model’s outcome is quite varied, and change significantly every 6 hours.

atm all I care about is that it’s well south of me.

Divine Angel said:

Don’t worry, I am absolutely taking this one with lots of grains of salt. From Brisbane Weather Facebook page, which seems a bit like Higgins Storm Chasing.

“ HEADS UP

Tropical cyclone Alfred has weakened to a Cat 2 system as it enter an area of unfavorable conditions. This system could weaken to a cat 1 system later today. However, it’s expected to re-intensify back to a cat 2 system and possible a cat 3 before landfall

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall at this stage around Redcliffe

Tropical cyclone Alfred Data if it crosses as a Cat 2:

Average winds 89-117km/h with wind gusts up to 164km/h
Alfred is capable of producing very heavy rainfall which could lead to dangerous flooding

People south of about Hervey Bay should start preparing from today as this system is predicted to cross the coast some time on Wednesday maybe Thursday

Sandbags are available with some councils if you think they may be required. Please contact your local council”

Check with the BoM every 6 hours. This storm is definitely unpredictable beyond a few hours.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Current prediction map, much different from last night:

Could get a bit wetly.

Divine Angel said:

Er, I hope this is a typo.

Typo?

Tamb said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

This does not fill me with confidence.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ Current as of time of posting, obviously.

Yes. Each model’s outcome is quite varied, and change significantly every 6 hours.

atm all I care about is that it’s well south of me.

Thanks, mate…

Michael V said:

Tamb said:

Michael V said:

Yes. Each model’s outcome is quite varied, and change significantly every 6 hours.

atm all I care about is that it’s well south of me.

Thanks, mate…

Tamb cares less for people the closer they get to Victoria.

Woodie said:

Could get a bit wetly.

Ha!

That’ll likely change, probably many times.

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Could get a bit wetly.

Ha!

That’ll likely change, probably many times.

It was considerably different when I looked last night. Hardly any at all. I’ll keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Monday 3 March 2025

At 4 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central pressure
984 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 24.9 south longitude 156.7
east, which is about 465 km northeast of Brisbane and 410 km east northeast of
Maroochydore.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has strengthened to category 2. It will continue its
current southeastwards motion, further away from the Queensland coast, during
Monday. Alfred is then expected to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday,
moving towards the southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northern New
South Wales coasts. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell
as well as abnormally high tides are occurring about exposed southern
Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales
coast from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and
northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast.
Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings .

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Monday 03 March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20065.txt

Divine Angel said:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Monday 3 March 2025

At 4 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central pressure
984 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 24.9 south longitude 156.7
east, which is about 465 km northeast of Brisbane and 410 km east northeast of
Maroochydore.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has strengthened to category 2. It will continue its
current southeastwards motion, further away from the Queensland coast, during
Monday. Alfred is then expected to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday,
moving towards the southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northern New
South Wales coasts. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell
as well as abnormally high tides are occurring about exposed southern
Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales
coast from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and
northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast.
Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings .

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Monday 03 March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20065.txt

For us, the gusty winds that were banging things around, dropped somewhat during the night. It’s now gusting to moderate breezes, rather than moderate gales.

Latest track-map. I’ll go get a grain of salt for the tail of that track. We won’t be around when the BoM publishes the next one. I’ll check it out when I return from Gympie.

Hmmm.. I had a brolly somewhere

How’s the sand blasting going Michael?

Ian said:

Hmmm.. I had a brolly somewhere

We’ve only had scattered showers so far from TC Alfred.

Ian said:

How’s the sand blasting going Michael?

Ha!

Luckily the grains are small and well-rounded, so hopefully most things are OK. The car windscreen might not be so good.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Monday 3 March 2025

At 4 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central pressure
984 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 24.9 south longitude 156.7
east, which is about 465 km northeast of Brisbane and 410 km east northeast of
Maroochydore.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has strengthened to category 2. It will continue its
current southeastwards motion, further away from the Queensland coast, during
Monday. Alfred is then expected to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday,
moving towards the southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northern New
South Wales coasts. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell
as well as abnormally high tides are occurring about exposed southern
Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales
coast from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and
northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast.
Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings .

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Monday 03 March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20065.txt

For us, the gusty winds that were banging things around, dropped somewhat during the night. It’s now gusting to moderate breezes, rather than moderate gales.

Latest track-map. I’ll go get a grain of salt for the tail of that track. We won’t be around when the BoM publishes the next one. I’ll check it out when I return from Gympie.

We need one of Shitler’s marker pens to make it go somewhere else.

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Monday 3 March 2025

At 4 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central pressure
984 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 24.9 south longitude 156.7
east, which is about 465 km northeast of Brisbane and 410 km east northeast of
Maroochydore.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has strengthened to category 2. It will continue its
current southeastwards motion, further away from the Queensland coast, during
Monday. Alfred is then expected to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday,
moving towards the southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northern New
South Wales coasts. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell
as well as abnormally high tides are occurring about exposed southern
Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales
coast from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and
northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast.
Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings .

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Monday 03 March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20065.txt

For us, the gusty winds that were banging things around, dropped somewhat during the night. It’s now gusting to moderate breezes, rather than moderate gales.

Latest track-map. I’ll go get a grain of salt for the tail of that track. We won’t be around when the BoM publishes the next one. I’ll check it out when I return from Gympie.

We need one of Shitler’s marker pens to make it go somewhere else.

Move it to mar a largo.

Looked a bit ominous earlier, but it’s sunny now. Bit breezy, nothing to worry about so far.

*passes out grains of salt

The US Navy site has Alfred crossing “just north of Brisbane”. This info is under Prognostic Reasoning.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Tau.Neutrino said:

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

For us, the gusty winds that were banging things around, dropped somewhat during the night. It’s now gusting to moderate breezes, rather than moderate gales.

Latest track-map. I’ll go get a grain of salt for the tail of that track. We won’t be around when the BoM publishes the next one. I’ll check it out when I return from Gympie.

We need one of Shitler’s marker pens to make it go somewhere else.

Move it to mar a largo.

Yes, good idea. You should do that.

Divine Angel said:

*passes out grains of salt

The US Navy site has Alfred crossing “just north of Brisbane”. This info is under Prognostic Reasoning.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

:)

The models are starting to converge onto the Sunshine coast. Another 24 hours will help firm that up.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

*passes out grains of salt

The US Navy site has Alfred crossing “just north of Brisbane”. This info is under Prognostic Reasoning.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

:)

The models are starting to converge onto the Sunshine coast. Another 24 hours will help firm that up.

A Sunshine Coast hit is bad for me.

Are we there yet?
Faaarken hell…

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

*passes out grains of salt

The US Navy site has Alfred crossing “just north of Brisbane”. This info is under Prognostic Reasoning.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

:)

The models are starting to converge onto the Sunshine coast. Another 24 hours will help firm that up.

A Sunshine Coast hit is bad for me.

The landfall position is still unpredictable.

Don’t worry too much about the cyclone itself. The drop in pressure shouldn’t affect your breathing noticeably. It’s really not a huge drop in pressure (about 15/1000ths).

The wind will be like you have experienced before, but sustained over a few hours and with some higher gusts. The wind speed drops significantly the further you are from the centre of the storm. Even a few km makes a noticeable difference.

You may need to put towels at the bottom of exterior doors, and wipe up around poorly-sealed windows. So have towels and buckets handy. Have a couple of torches handy. A head-torch is very useful at night. Very useful.

Preparation – make sure any object outside that can blow around is either removed or tied down. Have enough water for two or three days.

Your running-away plan is great, too, as long as it is sufficiently early – at least 6 to 8 hours early.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

:)

The models are starting to converge onto the Sunshine coast. Another 24 hours will help firm that up.

A Sunshine Coast hit is bad for me.

The landfall position is still unpredictable.

Don’t worry too much about the cyclone itself. The drop in pressure shouldn’t affect your breathing noticeably. It’s really not a huge drop in pressure (about 15/1000ths).

The wind will be like you have experienced before, but sustained over a few hours and with some higher gusts. The wind speed drops significantly the further you are from the centre of the storm. Even a few km makes a noticeable difference.

You may need to put towels at the bottom of exterior doors, and wipe up around poorly-sealed windows. So have towels and buckets handy. Have a couple of torches handy. A head-torch is very useful at night. Very useful.

Preparation – make sure any object outside that can blow around is either removed or tied down. Have enough water for two or three days.

Your running-away plan is great, too, as long as it is sufficiently early – at least 6 to 8 hours early.

Good advice.
If you’re planning on leaving though I’d do it at least the day before. The roads may to jammed otherwise.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

:)

The models are starting to converge onto the Sunshine coast. Another 24 hours will help firm that up.

A Sunshine Coast hit is bad for me.

The landfall position is still unpredictable.

Don’t worry too much about the cyclone itself. The drop in pressure shouldn’t affect your breathing noticeably. It’s really not a huge drop in pressure (about 15/1000ths).

The wind will be like you have experienced before, but sustained over a few hours and with some higher gusts. The wind speed drops significantly the further you are from the centre of the storm. Even a few km makes a noticeable difference.

You may need to put towels at the bottom of exterior doors, and wipe up around poorly-sealed windows. So have towels and buckets handy. Have a couple of torches handy. A head-torch is very useful at night. Very useful.

Preparation – make sure any object outside that can blow around is either removed or tied down. Have enough water for two or three days.

Your running-away plan is great, too, as long as it is sufficiently early – at least 6 to 8 hours early.

To add to that – I’m sure you remember experiencing East Coast Lows when you were at Nowra.

Australian East Coast Lows are extra-tropical cyclones, with similar sustained winds and rain as Tropical Cyclones. (Their structure is different, so the winds don’t generally get into the Severe Tropical Cyclone range.)

Thank you MV. I needed a voice of reason.

Just called my dad. There is a plan if I need it. I’m protected quite a bit by Bribie and Moreton Islands but the bay faces north. We’ve not had any storm surges in the past and I don’t expect one now; no water lapping at the door.

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

A Sunshine Coast hit is bad for me.

The landfall position is still unpredictable.

Don’t worry too much about the cyclone itself. The drop in pressure shouldn’t affect your breathing noticeably. It’s really not a huge drop in pressure (about 15/1000ths).

The wind will be like you have experienced before, but sustained over a few hours and with some higher gusts. The wind speed drops significantly the further you are from the centre of the storm. Even a few km makes a noticeable difference.

You may need to put towels at the bottom of exterior doors, and wipe up around poorly-sealed windows. So have towels and buckets handy. Have a couple of torches handy. A head-torch is very useful at night. Very useful.

Preparation – make sure any object outside that can blow around is either removed or tied down. Have enough water for two or three days.

Your running-away plan is great, too, as long as it is sufficiently early – at least 6 to 8 hours early.

Good advice.
If you’re planning on leaving though I’d do it at least the day before. The roads may to jammed otherwise.

Yeah we’d be looking at Wednesday.

All good.

:)

kii said:

Are we there yet?
Faaarken hell…

It’s due on Thursday?

kii said:

kii said:

Are we there yet?
Faaarken hell…

It’s due on Thursday?

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

Michael V said:

kii said:

kii said:

Are we there yet?
Faaarken hell…

It’s due on Thursday?

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

I’m already bored by it.

kii said:

Michael V said:

kii said:

It’s due on Thursday?

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

I’m already bored by it.

Still a topic of some interest on the Sunshine Coast, i suspect.

I’m just hoping that we get some rain out of it, without the beachsiders suffering too much.

kii said:

Michael V said:

kii said:

It’s due on Thursday?

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

I’m already bored by it.

How convenient that there is a whole entire thread about it that you can ignore.

Witty Rejoinder said:

kii said:

Michael V said:

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

I’m already bored by it.

How convenient that there is a whole entire thread about it that you can ignore.

I was ignoring it (even though I have family in Brisbane and friends in northern NSW), and then it spilled over into Chat.

kii said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

kii said:

I’m already bored by it.

How convenient that there is a whole entire thread about it that you can ignore.

I was ignoring it (even though I have family in Brisbane and friends in northern NSW), and then it spilled over into Chat.

imagine if people chat about current issues

SCIENCE said:

kii said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

How convenient that there is a whole entire thread about it that you can ignore.

I was ignoring it (even though I have family in Brisbane and friends in northern NSW), and then it spilled over into Chat.

imagine if people chat about current issues

Okay….imagining…..tick tick tick….screams…..😆

Divine Angel said:

Hanrahan is going to be a pain in the arse at mass on Sunday

Seems like they are getting their video from a popular site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cGjmlaY_84

From –

https://earth.nullschool.net

kii said:

Michael V said:

kii said:

It’s due on Thursday?

Possibly, but who knows? It’s been the most unpredictable storm I’ve followed. It has been predicted to make landfall every day since last Wednesday. Despite supercomputers, this storm has not behaved as modelled.

I’m already bored by it.

Ah well. Sorry about that.

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Hanrahan is going to be a pain in the arse at mass on Sunday

LOL

Friday for the wet bits, but Wednesday for the windy bits, And that’s rool windy for round these parts.

They’re lining up to get swamped by waves…

kii said:

They’re lining up to get swamped by waves…

My daughter moved from here to the Sunny Coast.
It will be ironic if she gets cycloned.

Woodie said:

Friday for the wet bits, but Wednesday for the windy bits, And that’s rool windy for round these parts.

Expect to hear some trees falling in the forest, Mr Existentialist.

kii said:

They’re lining up to get swamped by waves…

Gosh!

Baby turtles! 😍😍😍

Divine Angel said:

Baby turtles! 😍😍😍

All the way down!

The Sunshine Coast is gonna get hit by giant jellybeans

Divine Angel said:

The Sunshine Coast is gonna get hit by giant jellybeans

Ha!

:)

Looks like it’s going to start to get fairly windy later tonight around here. Lots of rain as well.

Right. Mum’s sorted. Everything she had outside is either secured or inside. I’ve checked on my neighbours. The boat neighbours are unconcerned but the other side are quite concerned. Ive checked in with elderly friends, they’re prepared thanks to the help of family and neighbours.

Just having a rest and something to eat before tackling my own backyard. Lungs are ok so far.

Divine Angel said:

Right. Mum’s sorted. Everything she had outside is either secured or inside. I’ve checked on my neighbours. The boat neighbours are unconcerned but the other side are quite concerned. Ive checked in with elderly friends, they’re prepared thanks to the help of family and neighbours.

Just having a rest and something to eat before tackling my own backyard. Lungs are ok so far.

For you I’d be concerned about the wind but rather concerned about the storm surge water level.

Predicting that the cyclone will turn through 180 degrees is a bold prediction.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Right. Mum’s sorted. Everything she had outside is either secured or inside. I’ve checked on my neighbours. The boat neighbours are unconcerned but the other side are quite concerned. Ive checked in with elderly friends, they’re prepared thanks to the help of family and neighbours.

Just having a rest and something to eat before tackling my own backyard. Lungs are ok so far.

For you I’d be concerned about the wind but rather concerned about the storm surge water level.

We actually have excellent drainage here. These two pics were taken during the “rain bomb” 3 years ago. The second pic was taken a few hours after the first pic. The bridge is about 200m from my front door, we haven’t had any issues so far. I saw council there this morning clearing it.

The backyard itself is prone to flooding so Mr Mutant is working on that today.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Right. Mum’s sorted. Everything she had outside is either secured or inside. I’ve checked on my neighbours. The boat neighbours are unconcerned but the other side are quite concerned. Ive checked in with elderly friends, they’re prepared thanks to the help of family and neighbours.

Just having a rest and something to eat before tackling my own backyard. Lungs are ok so far.

For you I’d be concerned about the wind but rather concerned about the storm surge water level.

The storm surges bring all the kangaroos out though, so there’s that. During the rain bomb, there were hundreds of Roos around here.

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Right. Mum’s sorted. Everything she had outside is either secured or inside. I’ve checked on my neighbours. The boat neighbours are unconcerned but the other side are quite concerned. Ive checked in with elderly friends, they’re prepared thanks to the help of family and neighbours.

Just having a rest and something to eat before tackling my own backyard. Lungs are ok so far.

For you I’d be concerned about the wind but rather concerned about the storm surge water level.

The storm surges bring all the kangaroos out though, so there’s that. During the rain bomb, there were hundreds of Roos around here.

Our yard’s done as well as it’s going to be done, a few days ago. I just checked that the Glad Wrap will cover the buckets. It does.

I didn’t buy 82 toilet rolls as the bloke featured on the ABC news article a couple of days ago did. I mean – how many arseholes does an (about) 55 year-old have at home?

I’m checking that the new plug holds water in the bath. I’ve filled the bath to 150 mm.

I’m doing clothes washing now. Back to kitchen cleaning soon. (More washing up, bench oven, bench deep scrub, bench-stored tools and their receptacles.)

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

For you I’d be concerned about the wind but rather concerned about the storm surge water level.

The storm surges bring all the kangaroos out though, so there’s that. During the rain bomb, there were hundreds of Roos around here.

Our yard’s done as well as it’s going to be done, a few days ago. I just checked that the Glad Wrap will cover the buckets. It does.

I didn’t buy 82 toilet rolls as the bloke featured on the ABC news article a couple of days ago did. I mean – how many arseholes does an (about) 55 year-old have at home?

I’m checking that the new plug holds water in the bath. I’ve filled the bath to 150 mm.

I’m doing clothes washing now. Back to kitchen cleaning soon. (More washing up, bench oven, bench deep scrub, bench-stored tools and their receptacles.)

isn’t it cheaper to buy in bulk

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

The storm surges bring all the kangaroos out though, so there’s that. During the rain bomb, there were hundreds of Roos around here.

Our yard’s done as well as it’s going to be done, a few days ago. I just checked that the Glad Wrap will cover the buckets. It does.

I didn’t buy 82 toilet rolls as the bloke featured on the ABC news article a couple of days ago did. I mean – how many arseholes does an (about) 55 year-old have at home?

I’m checking that the new plug holds water in the bath. I’ve filled the bath to 150 mm.

I’m doing clothes washing now. Back to kitchen cleaning soon. (More washing up, bench oven, bench deep scrub, bench-stored tools and their receptacles.)

isn’t it cheaper to buy in bulk

Maybe, maybe not.

MetEye has Alfred going straight over Redcliffe.

Divine Angel said:

MetEye has Alfred going straight over Redcliffe.

Bloody!

You still have the run-away plan.

Alfie is at the point of no return. It’s about to hang a yooee!!
😮☂⛈⛈
See if it does!!

Woodie said:

Alfie is at the point of no return. It’s about to hang a yooee!!
😮☂⛈⛈
See if it does!!

It is a big ask of a cyclone but it is probably more about what is pushing it back.

Woodie said:

Alfie is at the point of no return. It’s about to hang a yooee!!
😮☂⛈⛈
See if it does!!

Yeah.

Wait and see.

roughbarked said:

Woodie said:

Alfie is at the point of no return. It’s about to hang a yooee!!
😮☂⛈⛈
See if it does!!

It is a big ask of a cyclone but it is probably more about what is pushing it back.

The Big Bad Wolf??? “I’ll huff….. and I’ll puff….. and I’ll blooooooooooow you’re house down!!”

…… and the wety bits have even gone up a bit since last night. Windy bits tomorrow.

It’s 3 years almost to the day since The Great Lismore Flood.

28th Feb 2022.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfAF60gjnMA 4 mins

Woodie said:

It’s 3 years almost to the day since The Great Lismore Flood.

28th Feb 2022.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfAF60gjnMA 4 mins

They fixed the levee, no more floods.

Per Premier’s press conference:

Regulations lifted to allow 24/7 delivers to supermarkets.

Schools open tomorrow.

Peak Warming Man said:

Woodie said:

It’s 3 years almost to the day since The Great Lismore Flood.

28th Feb 2022.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfAF60gjnMA 4 mins

They fixed the levee, no more floods.

They drove a Chevy on it.

Woodie said:

…… and the wety bits have even gone up a bit since last night. Windy bits tomorrow.

Far canal!

My rainfall has been revised also.

I’ve had a look at the council’s flood map. I’m at the very end of the overland flow type; literally, my neighbour doesn’t have any risk at all. My house has a drain in front of it which I made sure was clear this morning.

Divine Angel said:

My rainfall has been revised also.

That’s changed a bit.

Does anyone know how to speak US Navy? Their site says expected landfall tau 66 north of Brisbane.

Divine Angel said:

Does anyone know how to speak US Navy? Their site says expected landfall tau 66 north of Brisbane.

Link?

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Does anyone know how to speak US Navy? Their site says expected landfall tau 66 north of Brisbane.

Link?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1825prog.txt

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN ITS SHARP TRACK
CHANGE MOMENTARILY AND DRIVE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC ALFRED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS WESTWARD
PHASE TOWARD COASTAL AUSTRALIA, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RIDGING
AMPLITUDE WILL CAUSE A RELATIVELY SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD APPROACH
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE RIDGE WILL REORIENT
AND LEAD TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU 72, WITH AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL NEAR TAU 66 NORTH OF BRISBANE. WITH REGARD TO
INTENSITY, TC 18P IS FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITIES BETWEEN
50-55 KTS THROUGH TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, INTENSITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEMS WIND FIELD BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH COASTAL AND INLAND TERRAIN. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE
SYSTEM HAS ADOPTED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO
STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HOWEVER, WARMING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE, AND DECREASING VWS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
CYCLONE TO REGAIN ITS SYMMETRICAL TROPICAL STRUCTURE JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL.

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Does anyone know how to speak US Navy? Their site says expected landfall tau 66 north of Brisbane.

Link?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1825prog.txt

I think the “TA” is “Time After”.

I can’t think of a word for “U”, but I think it mean “publication of this analysis” or similar.

Well, I think we’ve done all we can do. Everything is inside except the bins. Bin day is tomorrow and that’s still going ahead. After collection well put them Southside of the house in a corner and secure to the fence. I’ll fill the bath tomorrow morning and we have two of those silicone drinks buckets filled with water as well as a 20L bottled water that we didn’t use last time we went camping. Mr Mutant is currently taking the window aircon out of the bedroom window.

>>Mr Mutant is currently taking the window aircon out of the bedroom window.

What’s the thinking behind that?

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Mr Mutant is currently taking the window aircon out of the bedroom window.

What’s the thinking behind that?

It’s not a load-bearing AC unit.

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Mr Mutant is currently taking the window aircon out of the bedroom window.

What’s the thinking behind that?

Wind can get around the screen up top. If nothing else the flap flap flap will be super annoying.

Divine Angel said:

Well, I think we’ve done all we can do. Everything is inside except the bins. Bin day is tomorrow and that’s still going ahead. After collection well put them Southside of the house in a corner and secure to the fence. I’ll fill the bath tomorrow morning and we have two of those silicone drinks buckets filled with water as well as a 20L bottled water that we didn’t use last time we went camping. Mr Mutant is currently taking the window aircon out of the bedroom window.

Cool.

And remember – decamping to your Dad’s place is a real option.

Divine Angel said:

It’s hung a yooee, as predicted.

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

Does anyone know how to speak US Navy? Their site says expected landfall tau 66 north of Brisbane.

Link?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1825prog.txt

DA, https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?southern-hemisphere says that TAU is the time in hours sine the forecast begins (it can be negative, or up to 120.)

Thanks btm

Divine Angel said:

The dart throwers good set of darts today.

I am in none of these suburbs.

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if BOM’s next update has my exact address as location of landfall.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

The suspense is killing me.

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if BOM’s next update has my exact address as location of landfall.

Don’t answer the door!

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if BOM’s next update has my exact address as location of landfall.

Fortunately the wind speed won’t be into the triple digits so it should be just a bit breezy* and very wet.

• Until the eye goes over, then it all goes quiet for a few minutes, then the wind quickly picks up again but in the opposite direction.

Divine Angel said:

I am in none of these suburbs.

Is that good?

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Looking at the projected path, it seems like the eye if going to go right over the top of your place.

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if BOM’s next update has my exact address as location of landfall.

Fortunately the wind speed won’t be into the triple digits so it should be just a bit breezy* and very wet.

• Until the eye goes over, then it all goes quiet for a few minutes, then the wind quickly picks up again but in the opposite direction.
  

There may not be an eye – it’s currently Cat 2, and not expected to become Cat 3.

Michael V said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if BOM’s next update has my exact address as location of landfall.

Fortunately the wind speed won’t be into the triple digits so it should be just a bit breezy* and very wet.

• Until the eye goes over, then it all goes quiet for a few minutes, then the wind quickly picks up again but in the opposite direction.
  

There may not be an eye – it’s currently Cat 2, and not expected to become Cat 3.

Yeah. Should be down to a Cat 1 well before landfall as well from what I’ve seen.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-26.9945,155.09638,8z

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

Spiny Norman said:

Fortunately the wind speed won’t be into the triple digits so it should be just a bit breezy* and very wet.

• Until the eye goes over, then it all goes quiet for a few minutes, then the wind quickly picks up again but in the opposite direction.
  

There may not be an eye – it’s currently Cat 2, and not expected to become Cat 3.

Yeah. Should be down to a Cat 1 well before landfall as well from what I’ve seen.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-26.9945,155.09638,8z

Sorry, it’ll still be a Cat 2, you were correct.

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

Spiny Norman said:

Fortunately the wind speed won’t be into the triple digits so it should be just a bit breezy* and very wet.

• Until the eye goes over, then it all goes quiet for a few minutes, then the wind quickly picks up again but in the opposite direction.
  

There may not be an eye – it’s currently Cat 2, and not expected to become Cat 3.

Yeah. Should be down to a Cat 1 well before landfall as well from what I’ve seen.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-26.9945,155.09638,8z

That would be great. I was reading earlier the wind shear is tearing it apart. But then I also read BOM thinks there’s a possibility of Cat 3.

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

There may not be an eye – it’s currently Cat 2, and not expected to become Cat 3.

Yeah. Should be down to a Cat 1 well before landfall as well from what I’ve seen.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-26.9945,155.09638,8z

That would be great. I was reading earlier the wind shear is tearing it apart. But then I also read BOM thinks there’s a possibility of Cat 3.

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

captain_spalding said:

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

We had this exact (Cat 2) situation in Bundaberg/Bargara in 1991.

It was an ‘interesting’ episode, but by no means catastrophic. Tree branches down, some small garden sheds blown away, but that was about the worst of it.

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Okay^4.

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Yeah. Should be down to a Cat 1 well before landfall as well from what I’ve seen.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-26.9945,155.09638,8z

That would be great. I was reading earlier the wind shear is tearing it apart. But then I also read BOM thinks there’s a possibility of Cat 3.

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Spiny Norman said:

But did you have the requisite 400 rolls of toilet paper?

It was the 20th century.

‘Panic buying’ hadn’t arrived in Australia yet.

Okay^4.

I don’t know what happened there.

The desk is a bit cluttered. Might have been something pressing on the keyboard.

Divine Angel said:

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

That would be great. I was reading earlier the wind shear is tearing it apart. But then I also read BOM thinks there’s a possibility of Cat 3.

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

Lol…children don’t always display outward signs of stress.
I seem to remember that you experienced a close call with at least 1 bushfire in the mountains. You may have PTSD from that and it can surface when you are in similar situations.
I went through enormous stress in Hazelbrook during a particularly bad bushfire close to our home. It came up in my assessment for C-PTSD a few years ago.
But, whatever.

Divine Angel said:

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

That would be great. I was reading earlier the wind shear is tearing it apart. But then I also read BOM thinks there’s a possibility of Cat 3.

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

stay alert but not alarmed so they say.

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

kii said:

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

Lol…children don’t always display outward signs of stress.
I seem to remember that you experienced a close call with at least 1 bushfire in the mountains. You may have PTSD from that and it can surface when you are in similar situations.
I went through enormous stress in Hazelbrook during a particularly bad bushfire close to our home. It came up in my assessment for C-PTSD a few years ago.
But, whatever.

I’ve wondered if i didn’t have (still have?) some sort of PTSD.

I don’t have the dreams that i used to have; at least, only rarely now e.g. i don’t wake up convinced that the lounge room is full of dead people. Mostly, i don’t.

I still get nervous in wooded areas in late afternoon, but i’ve been actively ‘challenging’ that for some years now, and i reckon i’ve got it beaten.

captain_spalding said:

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

Lol…children don’t always display outward signs of stress.
I seem to remember that you experienced a close call with at least 1 bushfire in the mountains. You may have PTSD from that and it can surface when you are in similar situations.
I went through enormous stress in Hazelbrook during a particularly bad bushfire close to our home. It came up in my assessment for C-PTSD a few years ago.
But, whatever.

I’ve wondered if i didn’t have (still have?) some sort of PTSD.

I don’t have the dreams that i used to have; at least, only rarely now e.g. i don’t wake up convinced that the lounge room is full of dead people. Mostly, i don’t.

I still get nervous in wooded areas in late afternoon, but i’ve been actively ‘challenging’ that for some years now, and i reckon i’ve got it beaten.

“Saigon. Shit. I’m only in Saigon. Every time, I think I’m gonna wake up back in the jungle.”

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

kii said:

Lol…children don’t always display outward signs of stress.
I seem to remember that you experienced a close call with at least 1 bushfire in the mountains. You may have PTSD from that and it can surface when you are in similar situations.
I went through enormous stress in Hazelbrook during a particularly bad bushfire close to our home. It came up in my assessment for C-PTSD a few years ago.
But, whatever.

I’ve wondered if i didn’t have (still have?) some sort of PTSD.

I don’t have the dreams that i used to have; at least, only rarely now e.g. i don’t wake up convinced that the lounge room is full of dead people. Mostly, i don’t.

I still get nervous in wooded areas in late afternoon, but i’ve been actively ‘challenging’ that for some years now, and i reckon i’ve got it beaten.

“Saigon. Shit. I’m only in Saigon. Every time, I think I’m gonna wake up back in the jungle.”

You know, Martin Sheen was genuinely off his rocker when that sequence was filmed.

He’s not acting drunk and psychotic, he really is drunk and psychotic. When he punchesd the mirror and cuts his hand, that’s entirely unscripted, it’s real blood, and he needed medical attention afterwards.

Making ‘Apocalypse Now’ was such a stressful ordeal for all concerned. Sheen had a heart attack, and had to be replaced with his brother so that some (longer-distance) scenes could be filmed during his absence.

Two people i used to know were ‘extras’ as part of the ‘1st Cavalry’ assault force in the ‘fishing village’ segment.

Hey DA, the Gold Coast City Council has this flood map available, is there something similar for your area?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/bebdd7fbf82b45359397c3a1d2ad07fc

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

I’ve wondered if i didn’t have (still have?) some sort of PTSD.

I don’t have the dreams that i used to have; at least, only rarely now e.g. i don’t wake up convinced that the lounge room is full of dead people. Mostly, i don’t.

I still get nervous in wooded areas in late afternoon, but i’ve been actively ‘challenging’ that for some years now, and i reckon i’ve got it beaten.

“Saigon. Shit. I’m only in Saigon. Every time, I think I’m gonna wake up back in the jungle.”

You know, Martin Sheen was genuinely off his rocker when that sequence was filmed.

He’s not acting drunk and psychotic, he really is drunk and psychotic. When he punchesd the mirror and cuts his hand, that’s entirely unscripted, it’s real blood, and he needed medical attention afterwards.

Making ‘Apocalypse Now’ was such a stressful ordeal for all concerned. Sheen had a heart attack, and had to be replaced with his brother so that some (longer-distance) scenes could be filmed during his absence.

Two people i used to know were ‘extras’ as part of the ‘1st Cavalry’ assault force in the ‘fishing village’ segment.

Yeah knew most of that. One of my favourite films. A film production as chaotic as the Vietnam War in general.

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the Gold Coast City Council has this flood map available, is there something similar for your area?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/bebdd7fbf82b45359397c3a1d2ad07fc

Yes, I checked it earlier. I’m the last house in the “overland flow” area. Literally the house next door is not in the zone.

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

“Saigon. Shit. I’m only in Saigon. Every time, I think I’m gonna wake up back in the jungle.”

You know, Martin Sheen was genuinely off his rocker when that sequence was filmed.

He’s not acting drunk and psychotic, he really is drunk and psychotic. When he punchesd the mirror and cuts his hand, that’s entirely unscripted, it’s real blood, and he needed medical attention afterwards.

Making ‘Apocalypse Now’ was such a stressful ordeal for all concerned. Sheen had a heart attack, and had to be replaced with his brother so that some (longer-distance) scenes could be filmed during his absence.

Two people i used to know were ‘extras’ as part of the ‘1st Cavalry’ assault force in the ‘fishing village’ segment.

Yeah knew most of that. One of my favourite films. A film production as chaotic as the Vietnam War in general.

The production had a number of people amongthe crew who’d served in Vietnam. I think that it was one of the producers who had been a helicopter door-gunner in Vietnam, and they relied a great deal on his advice in the early part of the film.

When the patrol boat is dropped into the water, that’s an accident. There was no heavy-lift helicopters available, and the boat strained the 2,000 lb. external cargo hook limit on the UH-1H helicopters available.

The lift failed at the last moment, and the boat was dropped, accidentally, into the water.

It did considerable damage to the hull, necessitating extensive repairs, making it unavailable for some time, and driving FF Coppola a lit bit more mad.

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the Gold Coast City Council has this flood map available, is there something similar for your area?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/bebdd7fbf82b45359397c3a1d2ad07fc

Yes, I checked it earlier. I’m the last house in the “overland flow” area. Literally the house next door is not in the zone.

Righto.
Got a link to that please? Just curious.

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

You know, Martin Sheen was genuinely off his rocker when that sequence was filmed.

He’s not acting drunk and psychotic, he really is drunk and psychotic. When he punchesd the mirror and cuts his hand, that’s entirely unscripted, it’s real blood, and he needed medical attention afterwards.

Making ‘Apocalypse Now’ was such a stressful ordeal for all concerned. Sheen had a heart attack, and had to be replaced with his brother so that some (longer-distance) scenes could be filmed during his absence.

Two people i used to know were ‘extras’ as part of the ‘1st Cavalry’ assault force in the ‘fishing village’ segment.

Yeah knew most of that. One of my favourite films. A film production as chaotic as the Vietnam War in general.

The production had a number of people amongthe crew who’d served in Vietnam. I think that it was one of the producers who had been a helicopter door-gunner in Vietnam, and they relied a great deal on his advice in the early part of the film.

When the patrol boat is dropped into the water, that’s an accident. There was no heavy-lift helicopters available, and the boat strained the 2,000 lb. external cargo hook limit on the UH-1H helicopters available.

The lift failed at the last moment, and the boat was dropped, accidentally, into the water.

It did considerable damage to the hull, necessitating extensive repairs, making it unavailable for some time, and driving FF Coppola a lit bit more mad.

The horror.

poikilotherm said:

The horror.

“Anything approaching the change that came over his features I have never seen before, and hope never to see again. He cried in a whisper at some image, at some vision—he cried out twice, a cry that was no more than a breath: “‘The horror! The horror!”

If you haven’t read Joseph Conrad’s ‘Heart of Darkness’, you should.

A very slim volume, it’s a masterpiece of implied, insinuated horror and terror, and of the effects of environment and association on supposedly ‘civilised’ people. You get scared and ‘changed’, but you don’t know why, and that’s what’s happening to the characters in the story.

captain_spalding said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

captain_spalding said:

You know, Martin Sheen was genuinely off his rocker when that sequence was filmed.

He’s not acting drunk and psychotic, he really is drunk and psychotic. When he punchesd the mirror and cuts his hand, that’s entirely unscripted, it’s real blood, and he needed medical attention afterwards.

Making ‘Apocalypse Now’ was such a stressful ordeal for all concerned. Sheen had a heart attack, and had to be replaced with his brother so that some (longer-distance) scenes could be filmed during his absence.

Two people i used to know were ‘extras’ as part of the ‘1st Cavalry’ assault force in the ‘fishing village’ segment.

Yeah knew most of that. One of my favourite films. A film production as chaotic as the Vietnam War in general.

The production had a number of people amongthe crew who’d served in Vietnam. I think that it was one of the producers who had been a helicopter door-gunner in Vietnam, and they relied a great deal on his advice in the early part of the film.

When the patrol boat is dropped into the water, that’s an accident. There was no heavy-lift helicopters available, and the boat strained the 2,000 lb. external cargo hook limit on the UH-1H helicopters available.

The lift failed at the last moment, and the boat was dropped, accidentally, into the water.

It did considerable damage to the hull, necessitating extensive repairs, making it unavailable for some time, and driving FF Coppola a lit bit more mad.

Have you seen this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hearts_of_Darkness:_A_Filmmaker%27s_Apocalypse

Witty Rejoinder said:

Have you seen this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hearts_of_Darkness:_A_Filmmaker%27s_Apocalypse

No, have not, was unaware of it.

Read a book by Mrs. Coppola about the saga of making ‘AN’, and that disclosed much about the strain that the enterprise placed on peope involved.

Have to give that film a look.

It’sa favourite film of mine because…helicopters!

Particularly UH-1 helicopters.

Oh, they are the most marvellous machines! God machines! Up, down, left , right, forwards, backwards. They can go where angels fear to tread, and, in skilled hands, they can be almost miraculous. They can do things that other helicopters can’t. They’re tough and tender, cruel and caring. Love them, love them, love them.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the Gold Coast City Council has this flood map available, is there something similar for your area?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/bebdd7fbf82b45359397c3a1d2ad07fc

Yes, I checked it earlier. I’m the last house in the “overland flow” area. Literally the house next door is not in the zone.

Righto.
Got a link to that please? Just curious.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/03329c6360d546909805d10b0f4bb8e2

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the Gold Coast City Council has this flood map available, is there something similar for your area?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/bebdd7fbf82b45359397c3a1d2ad07fc

Yes, I checked it earlier. I’m the last house in the “overland flow” area. Literally the house next door is not in the zone.

Righto.
Got a link to that please? Just curious.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/03329c6360d546909805d10b0f4bb8e2

oh wow we’re old enough to remember when Bubblecar or whoever it was was keel hauled for casually spot diagnosing people’s sociopathic tendencies or whatever they were and now this

LOL

captain_spalding said:

It’sa favourite film of mine because…helicopters!

Particularly UH-1 helicopters.

Oh, they are the most marvellous machines! God machines! Up, down, left , right, forwards, backwards. They can go where angels fear to tread, and, in skilled hands, they can be almost miraculous. They can do things that other helicopters can’t. They’re tough and tender, cruel and caring. Love them, love them, love them.

Have a read of Chickenhawk, by Robert Mason. A Huey pilot in Vietnam and it’s a damn good read.

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Yes, I checked it earlier. I’m the last house in the “overland flow” area. Literally the house next door is not in the zone.

Righto.
Got a link to that please? Just curious.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/03329c6360d546909805d10b0f4bb8e2

Ta.

SCIENCE said:

oh wow we’re old enough to remember when Bubblecar or whoever it was was keel hauled for casually spot diagnosing people’s sociopathic tendencies or whatever they were and now this

LOL

I said DA may have C-PTSD.
I didn’t scream it at her in a nasty vicious attack.
I’m concerned that this experience is difficult because of previous experiences with potential disasters.
Grow up and stop playing stupid games.

kii said:

SCIENCE said:

kii said:

Divine Angel said:

kii said:

I really think you need to stop obsessing about this. It can’t be good for your child. It sounds like you have prepared for it as well as anyone could. Go do something away from the constant stream of information.

Au contraire. She’s not worried at all. Her biggest concern is missing two days of school. I’m reading The Naturalist of Amsterdam and popping in here but I don’t have anything to add to the US politics thread, which is the other popular thread in VBT.

I am appreciative of advice from forumers who have experienced cyclones.

Lol…children don’t always display outward signs of stress.
I seem to remember that you experienced a close call with at least 1 bushfire in the mountains. You may have PTSD from that and it can surface when you are in similar situations.
I went through enormous stress in Hazelbrook during a particularly bad bushfire close to our home. It came up in my assessment for C-PTSD a few years ago.
But, whatever.

oh wow we’re old enough to remember when Bubblecar or whoever it was was keel hauled for casually spot diagnosing people’s sociopathic tendencies or whatever they were and now this

LOL

I said DA may have C-PTSD.
I didn’t scream it at her in a nasty vicious attack.
I’m concerned that this experience is difficult because of previous experiences with potential disasters.
Grow up and stop playing stupid games.

hey d’n‘o’ about that some of that sounds pretty nasty vicious aggressive confrontational to us but what would we know we’re probably more autistic than felonazi but but

oh wait what was that suddenly it’s us playing games

Hey DA, the projected path is a little further south now. Not a lot, but it all help you.

https://zoom.earth/storms/alfred-2025/

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the projected path is a little further south now. Not a lot, but it all help you.

https://zoom.earth/storms/alfred-2025/

Ta. How are your preparations going?

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Hey DA, the projected path is a little further south now. Not a lot, but it all help you.

https://zoom.earth/storms/alfred-2025/

Ta. How are your preparations going?

Haven’t done a great deal other than clean up most of the loose objects around outside. So a few of the rooms have an extra bunch of crap in them – thus matching the rest of the house really.
I’m only really worried about the wind and other than shifting stuff inside there’s not a lot more I can do. I am quite worried about some roof tiles peeling away in the strong wind as the roof isn’t exactly built very well. Apart from the odd nailed-down tile here and there, most of them just sit there thanks to gravity & some friction against neighbouring tiles.
So, if we start losing tiles that’ll let the heavy rain in and no good shall come of that. We’re 73 metres above sea level so I’m feeling quite confident that we’re safe against flooding. ;)

There’s a house I drive past every morning who just got a new roof last week. I guess this is a good test for it! Yesterday the roofing guys were finishing up, cleaning up, and removing scaffolding.

Heehee

OK then

the system will produce heavy to locally intense rainfall over south-east Queensland on Thursday, Friday and into Saturday. Daily rainfall totals of 200mm to 400mm are possible, meaning the event could lead to totals over 800mm. “This sort of rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flash and riverine flooding,” he says

all quiet on the western front.

Bit gusty but the sun’s out. Kept Mini Me home from school today. The neighbour has been talking about getting a new fence, this might be their chance haha.

And now we wait.

Divine Angel said:

Bit gusty but the sun’s out. Kept Mini Me home from school today. The neighbour has been talking about getting a new fence, this might be their chance haha.

And now we wait.

Nothing much here, just some light rain and occasional light breeze.

Divine Angel said:

Bit gusty but the sun’s out. Kept Mini Me home from school today. The neighbour has been talking about getting a new fence, this might be their chance haha.

And now we wait.

PACES UP AND DOWN

Swung back northwards again.

Off topic comment…there are a couple of bushfires quite near Ballarat at the moment.

Divine Angel said:

Swung back northwards again.

It likes you more than me.

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Swung back northwards again.

It likes you more than me.

My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard.

Got me a 9kg gas bottle. Saw three other people engaged in the same transaction.

Came home, resurrected the two-burner Primus stove from the small shed, cleaned it up, tested it, works fine. Whatever we might end up eating, it will, at least, be warm.

Spalding Jr. has decided to stay in his premises at Teneriffe in Brisbane, having made suitable preparations.

I will take the car, and re-fuel it very shortly. No apparent crowds at local service stations.

captain_spalding said:

Got me a 9kg gas bottle. Saw three other people engaged in the same transaction.

Came home, resurrected the two-burner Primus stove from the small shed, cleaned it up, tested it, works fine. Whatever we might end up eating, it will, at least, be warm.

Spalding Jr. has decided to stay in his premises at Teneriffe in Brisbane, having made suitable preparations.

I will take the car, and re-fuel it very shortly. No apparent crowds at local service stations.

PACES UP AND DOWN

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Got me a 9kg gas bottle. Saw three other people engaged in the same transaction.

Came home, resurrected the two-burner Primus stove from the small shed, cleaned it up, tested it, works fine. Whatever we might end up eating, it will, at least, be warm.

Spalding Jr. has decided to stay in his premises at Teneriffe in Brisbane, having made suitable preparations.

I will take the car, and re-fuel it very shortly. No apparent crowds at local service stations.

PACES UP AND DOWN

The loneliness of command?

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Got me a 9kg gas bottle. Saw three other people engaged in the same transaction.

Came home, resurrected the two-burner Primus stove from the small shed, cleaned it up, tested it, works fine. Whatever we might end up eating, it will, at least, be warm.

Spalding Jr. has decided to stay in his premises at Teneriffe in Brisbane, having made suitable preparations.

I will take the car, and re-fuel it very shortly. No apparent crowds at local service stations.

PACES UP AND DOWN

Have you ekscapeded to the Redoubt, Mr Man?

This is the heaviest rainfalI forecast I can find.

Pour moi?? No change in the last day or so. Just 1 or 2 moolies so far.

Windiest??

Refuge centres have opened around Moreton Bay. Closest one to me is a giant church lol. Am wondering if I’ll burst into flames if I step through the doorway.

Woodie said:

This is the heaviest rainfalI forecast I can find.

Pour moi?? No change in the last day or so. Just 1 or 2 moolies so far.

Windiest??

It’ll fill your dam, so you can chuck more stuff in it.

Divine Angel said:

Refuge centres have opened around Moreton Bay. Closest one to me is a giant church lol. Am wondering if I’ll burst into flames if I step through the doorway.

:)

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

This is the heaviest rainfalI forecast I can find.

Pour moi?? No change in the last day or so. Just 1 or 2 moolies so far.

Windiest??

It’ll fill your dam, so you can chuck more stuff in it.

hehehhe….

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Swung back northwards again.

It likes you more than me.

Understandable…

;)

Divine Angel said:

Spiny Norman said:

Divine Angel said:

Swung back northwards again.

It likes you more than me.

My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard.

:)

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

FMD

Probably a Trump DEI thingo.

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East , 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and 305 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge beginning to reach the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.

Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast this afternoon and during Thursday. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast early Friday morning, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

Divine Angel said:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East , 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and 305 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge beginning to reach the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.

Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast this afternoon and during Thursday. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast early Friday morning, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

PACES UP AND DOWN

The 9 day NAPLAN window opens next week. I think Mini Me’s tests are the week after.

In 2022’s rain bomb, the school was closed for a week due to flooding. Mini Me’s classroom is at the bottom of the hill at the school and at high risk of flooding.

Peak Warming Man said:

Divine Angel said:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East , 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and 305 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge beginning to reach the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.

Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast this afternoon and during Thursday. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast early Friday morning, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

PACES UP AND DOWN

I haven’t eaten kidney for years.

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

FMD

Probably a Trump DEI thingo.

or attempts to ¿ blackmail Australian governments again

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

FMD

Probably a Trump DEI thingo.

or attempts to ¿ blackmail Australian governments again

Good idea; likely correct.

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

Might I suggest they have been requested to do so. Prevent any misinformation which Facebook is renown for, from any old dickwits..

If you already “follow” a particular group (eg SES, local council, police) then I’d suggest you would see what gets posted by them.

I’ve had 6 or so power glitches the last half hour. Just 1/2sec or so, and the lights blink. 2 in 10 secs just then.

Bit of a slight breeze out there ATM.

Woodie said:

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

Might I suggest they have been requested to do so. Prevent any misinformation which Facebook is renown for, from any old dickwits..

If you already “follow” a particular group (eg SES, local council, police) then I’d suggest you would see what gets posted by them.

Fair comment also.

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Michael V said:

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

What does Force go up to?

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

26 degrees, 26kph gusting to 54kph, 1006hp

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

What does Force go up to?

To Force 12

See:

https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/beaufort-wind-scale

captain_spalding said:

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

What does Force go up to?

To Force 12

See:

https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/beaufort-wind-scale

Roger.

Peak Warming Man said:

captain_spalding said:

Michael V said:

Overcast, calm to light breezes, warm (28.5° C) and moderately humid (48%) here.

Report from Toowoomba:

24 deg, 59% humidity, wind: from the south, 28 kmh/15 knots/Force 4, gusting 46 kmh/25knots/Force 7

Barometer: 1012 hPa (was 1014 hPa at 9:00am)

What does Force go up to?

11

Alfred’s taking his sweet time. Earlier today it was reported to cross around 1am Friday morning. Because he’s now halved his speed (from 14kph to 7kph), crossing is now “sometime Friday”. According to BOM’s 8pm forecast, the eye will go straight over me, but that’ll probably change.

I went out to pick up mum. She doesn’t like wind and is already freaking out even though there’s barely a breeze. She’ll drive me crazy regardless of where she is. This way I know she’s safe.

Tomorrow I’m limiting device time to save battery power.

Oh, and I have a chainsaw in case of Sharknado

https://au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-warned-of-immediate-shark-danger-caused-by-cyclone-alfred-huge-numbers-064407543.html

Divine Angel said:

Oh, and I have a chainsaw in case of Sharknado

https://au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-warned-of-immediate-shark-danger-caused-by-cyclone-alfred-huge-numbers-064407543.html

I have two chainsaws, one for each hand.

Although one of them is electric.

Steve Symonds
3m ·
Tropical Cyclone “Alfred” is approaching the Queensland coast and the eye is expected to cross the coast near Brisbane on Friday morning. That is more than 200km north of me in northeast NSW. We will certainly see heavy rain and, perhaps, gale force winds this far from the centre of the storm but business for the most part will continue as usual although those closer to the centre of the storm are going to have some serious problems.
Why is it then that the local shops and supermarkets have seen panic buying of bread and toilet paper? Perhaps there is some notion that tropical cyclones 200+km away cause dysentery.

Wind picking up round Brisbane:

Divine Angel said:

Oh, and I have a chainsaw in case of Sharknado

https://au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-warned-of-immediate-shark-danger-caused-by-cyclone-alfred-huge-numbers-064407543.html

Stay away from the water. No Bull!

sarahs mum said:

Steve Symonds
3m ·
Tropical Cyclone “Alfred” is approaching the Queensland coast and the eye is expected to cross the coast near Brisbane on Friday morning. That is more than 200km north of me in northeast NSW. We will certainly see heavy rain and, perhaps, gale force winds this far from the centre of the storm but business for the most part will continue as usual although those closer to the centre of the storm are going to have some serious problems.
Why is it then that the local shops and supermarkets have seen panic buying of bread and toilet paper? Perhaps there is some notion that tropical cyclones 200+km away cause dysentery.

Because: media, socials, etc.

Are we there yet?

Woodie said:

Are we there yet?

Hell no. The worst is yet to come.

Had a customers from QLD email me today asking me to hold off sending their order for a few days, just so we know when the roads are reopened and things back to normal.

Woodie said:

Are we there yet?

Nup.

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Are we there yet?

Nup.

Time for another one of my stories of adventure….

Over 40 years ago I was camping on Bribie Island with my parents and partner, and Mum’s dog. We experienced what was called “the tail end” of a cyclone. Twice. It passed over, turned around and came back.

I was in early pregnancy, had a bluebottle sting around my torso (from earlier in the day), and my mother was a tad hysterical. For the first pass we were in the Torana, then we got out and cooked dinner. The 2nd pass we were in the small tent. I remember dissociating to the smell of wet dog.

Ah, memories.

kii said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Are we there yet?

Nup.

Time for another one of my stories of adventure….

Over 40 years ago I was camping on Bribie Island with my parents and partner, and Mum’s dog. We experienced what was called “the tail end” of a cyclone. Twice. It passed over, turned around and came back.

I was in early pregnancy, had a bluebottle sting around my torso (from earlier in the day), and my mother was a tad hysterical. For the first pass we were in the Torana, then we got out and cooked dinner. The 2nd pass we were in the small tent. I remember dissociating to the smell of wet dog.

Ah, memories.

Stradbroke Island, I remember Amity Point. Going by the BoM records it was TC Des.

kii said:

kii said:

Michael V said:

Nup.

Time for another one of my stories of adventure….

Over 40 years ago I was camping on Bribie Island with my parents and partner, and Mum’s dog. We experienced what was called “the tail end” of a cyclone. Twice. It passed over, turned around and came back.

I was in early pregnancy, had a bluebottle sting around my torso (from earlier in the day), and my mother was a tad hysterical. For the first pass we were in the Torana, then we got out and cooked dinner. The 2nd pass we were in the small tent. I remember dissociating to the smell of wet dog.

Ah, memories.

Stradbroke Island, I remember Amity Point. Going by the BoM records it was TC Des.

Sounds like a fun family holiday!

nice

SCIENCE said:

nice

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/tropical-cyclone-alfred-brisbane-forecast-queensland-nsw-live/105010498

don’t be tricked by the timestamp it’s Ztime we think

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Divine Angel said:

“Cyclone Alfred” search term is blocked on Facebook.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/meta-blocked-facebook-searches-cyclone-alfred/105013014

Might I suggest they have been requested to do so. Prevent any misinformation which Facebook is renown for, from any old dickwits..

If you already “follow” a particular group (eg SES, local council, police) then I’d suggest you would see what gets posted by them.

Fair comment also.

oh sure sure

ah well these days everyone can just hide behind 爱 and deepfakes and decision systems can’t they

Meta, the parent company for Facebook, said it has now resolved the issue and blamed it on a “technical issue”. “Facebook has not intentionally blocked or hidden search results relating to Cyclone Alfred,” a spokesperson for the company said. “We did experience a technical issue, which our teams have been working to resolve, and relevant information should now be available for most users. “We apologise for the mistake and hope everyone stays safe.”

0530 report from the Goldy.

A bit of wind, nothing serious and the same with the wind. They’ll get stronger though as the day progresses.

Looks like it’s drunk.

Spiny Norman said:

0530 report from the Goldy.

A bit of wind, nothing serious and the same with the wind. They’ll get stronger though as the day progresses.

Windy

Spiny Norman said:

Looks like it’s drunk.

Loopy

SCIENCE said:

SCIENCE said:

nice

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/tropical-cyclone-alfred-brisbane-forecast-queensland-nsw-live/105010498

don’t be tricked by the timestamp it’s Ztime we think

Zulu, Roger

What’s the Clearance Clarence?

Okay now it’s getting a bit windy. Mainly gusts.

Cyclone update from my house

Divine Angel said:

Cyclone update from my house

Rainbow in the morning shepherds warning.

Divine Angel said:

Cyclone update from my house

Looks pretty normal here as well. Just some good wind gusts every now and then.
Spocky stayed up late last night to keep an eye on things and I woke up early. Same again tonight and most likely Friday night as well I reckon.

I never tire of your view.

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Might I suggest they have been requested to do so. Prevent any misinformation which Facebook is renown for, from any old dickwits..

If you already “follow” a particular group (eg SES, local council, police) then I’d suggest you would see what gets posted by them.

Fair comment also.

oh sure sure

ah well these days everyone can just hide behind 爱 and deepfakes and decision systems can’t they

Meta, the parent company for Facebook, said it has now resolved the issue and blamed it on a “technical issue”. “Facebook has not intentionally blocked or hidden search results relating to Cyclone Alfred,” a spokesperson for the company said. “We did experience a technical issue, which our teams have been working to resolve, and relevant information should now be available for most users. “We apologise for the mistake and hope everyone stays safe.”

Yeah, they just don’t want to admit that all this Alfred talk was taking attention away from politics.

Arts said:

SCIENCE said:

Michael V said:

Fair comment also.

oh sure sure

ah well these days everyone can just hide behind 爱 and deepfakes and decision systems can’t they

Meta, the parent company for Facebook, said it has now resolved the issue and blamed it on a “technical issue”. “Facebook has not intentionally blocked or hidden search results relating to Cyclone Alfred,” a spokesperson for the company said. “We did experience a technical issue, which our teams have been working to resolve, and relevant information should now be available for most users. “We apologise for the mistake and hope everyone stays safe.”

Yeah, they just don’t want to admit that all this Alfred talk was taking attention away from politics.

Let’s face it. Alfred is just gonna wipe out Queensland, no big loss. The current political situation is gonna wipe out the world.

kii said:

Michael V said:

Woodie said:

Are we there yet?

Nup.

Time for another one of my stories of adventure….

Over 40 years ago I was camping on Bribie Island with my parents and partner, and Mum’s dog. We experienced what was called “the tail end” of a cyclone. Twice. It passed over, turned around and came back.

I was in early pregnancy, had a bluebottle sting around my torso (from earlier in the day), and my mother was a tad hysterical. For the first pass we were in the Torana, then we got out and cooked dinner. The 2nd pass we were in the small tent. I remember dissociating to the smell of wet dog.

Ah, memories.

I was in a cyclone once. When I was a kid in Carnarvon. Friends of my parents had a banana plantation there and we kids used to go there in summer holidays. This year was the first year it was just me (my sister was too old to hang out in small town Carnarvon) and then the cyclone hit. We all hunkered down in the big packing shed… apparently that was safer than the house they had. I just remember being huddled in a corner and hearing the wind whipping up outside and things hitting the shed … but I mostly remember going outside once the cyclone had past and seeing the damage that was done. It was eerie walking through the plantation with debris everywhere.

Google tells me it was cyclone Herbie in 1978. Which would have made me 7, which seems about right as I was very young.

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

How close are you to the water?

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

Spiny Norman said:

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

800+ metres here.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Spiny Norman said:

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

800+ metres here.

Seems safe enough for now.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Spiny Norman said:

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

800+ metres here.

1,219 m but I’m in the flood plain for the Rio Grande…hence the sandbags.

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

800+ metres here.

Seems safe enough for now.

We might become an island.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

800+ metres here.

Seems safe enough for now.

We might become an island.

That can actually happen here. There’s only about four of five ways out of here and they’re all much lower. Quite unlikely though.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

800+ metres here.

Seems safe enough for now.

We might become an island.

No man is an island.

Spiny Norman said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

I think she’s about three metres. That is of concern with how close to the coast she is.
I guess you’re not higher?

Three metres is marginal.

Currently, I’d add three metres to high tide for a margin of safety.

I’m now concerned for them.

We’re quite high. Likely 15-odd metres ASL, so no concerns.

roughbarked said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

How close are you to the water?

Me? About 1,000 metres horizontally, and ~15 metres vertically.

It’s still hanging around I see, without doing much.

Chamberlain would say something stupid like “Cyclone Alfred has missed the bus.”

Peak Warming Man said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Seems safe enough for now.

We might become an island.

No man is an island.

Thank you mr. Donne.

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

About 3m. But I’m not near an unprotected coast, there’s estuaries which will provide some protection. Trying not to doxx myself here, but the blue line is an approximation of about 1km of mangroves between my house and the sea.

Michael V said:

roughbarked said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

How close are you to the water?

Me? About 1,000 metres horizontally, and ~15 metres vertically.

Probably safe enough from most surges.

kii said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Just had a look with Google Earth, it seems you’re much higher.

800+ metres here.

1,219 m but I’m in the flood plain for the Rio Grande…hence the sandbags.

I understand. When we lived in Armidale, we were at 1000 m (pretty much exactly), but on the flood plain for Dumaresq Creek, which flooded regularly. and could rise very quickly (a couple of hours).

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

About 3m. But I’m not near an unprotected coast, there’s estuaries which will provide some protection. Trying not to doxx myself here, but the blue line is an approximation of about 1km of mangroves between my house and the sea.

That’s a bit of a buffer.

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

Seems safe enough for now.

We might become an island.

That can actually happen here. There’s only about four of five ways out of here and they’re all much lower. Quite unlikely though.

That definitely happens here.

Apologies for silliness earlier.. result of going hard cleaning up sheds etc, poor sleep, early morning dennis appointment… last trip into town BA (the ropes and chainsaw were surplus to requirements).

Ian said:

Definitely impacting.

Ian said:

Swirly.

Divine Angel said:

Michael V said:

DA:

What is your height above sea level?

I am concerned that TC Alfred’s slowing will allow the gales to whip the seas higher than previously anticipated.

About 3m. But I’m not near an unprotected coast, there’s estuaries which will provide some protection. Trying not to doxx myself here, but the blue line is an approximation of about 1km of mangroves between my house and the sea.

Ooh-ah!

That’s cutting it tight and is concerning. Please keep us updated.

Abandon ship early, if necessarily.

captain_spalding said:

Ian said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Ian said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

My sister works for the state govt energy dept. Their current advice is 3 days without power, up to a week for the worst affected areas. Generators have been deployed to the islands and various LGAs in advance.

You gotta remember this is the capital city, not the boonies.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

Should have eaten almost everything in the freezer before the storm hits.

Divine Angel said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

My sister works for the state govt energy dept. Their current advice is 3 days without power, up to a week for the worst affected areas. Generators have been deployed to the islands and various LGAs in advance.

You gotta remember this is the capital city, not the boonies.

But at times the power people have to work from boats.

roughbarked said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

Should have eaten almost everything in the freezer before the storm hits.

We were able to keep the genny going.

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

We’re all set for that.

Spiny Norman said:

captain_spalding said:

Ian said:

Swirly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

Thanks Cat.

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

Spiny Norman said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAAKLLEunoI

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

We’re all set for that.

Same here.. although not hard wired to the house.

Ian said:

Spiny Norman said:

Tamb said:

It’s the loss of power etc which has the most impact. 14 days for Yasi & 10 for Larry.

We’re all set for that.

Same here.. although not hard wired to the house.

My Honda genny has a load sensitive throttle. This conserves fuel.