Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?
For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
There are a number of moon candidates that could develop life.
Whether or not they’ll generate life is something of a moot point since not enough is known about abiogenesis. For that matter some people think Jupiter or Europa could host right now. Others think lige is an extremely unlikely event even with perfect conditions.
But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level. So an object at about Pluto’s distance would have the same energy flux from the sun as the Earth does now.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
The moons of them might.
They are exciting the moons of the Jupiter and Saturn for the prospect of life
Could have life floating in the clouds of the gas giants as well
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.
Does it go boom then?
Peak Warming Man said:
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.Does it go boom then?
no. turns into a white dwarf. not big enough to go boom.
Bogsnorkler said:
Peak Warming Man said:
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.Does it go boom then?
no. turns into a white dwarf. not big enough to go boom.
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
Peak Warming Man said:
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.Does it go boom then?
If you could hear it, it would be an interesting sound.
Maybe someone could model the sound?
It would be travelling through the sun, and travelling through the suns atmosphere.
Cymek said:
Bogsnorkler said:
Peak Warming Man said:
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.Does it go boom then?
no. turns into a white dwarf. not big enough to go boom.
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
Our sun will become a white dwarf after the red giant phase.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Peak Warming Man said:
>>But we can consider that the sun’s energy output will peak at around 2000 times its current level.Does it go boom then?
If you could hear it, it would be an interesting sound.
Maybe someone could model the sound?
It would be travelling through the sun, and travelling through the suns atmosphere.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
Bogsnorkler said:no. turns into a white dwarf. not big enough to go boom.
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
Our sun will become a white dwarf after the red giant phase.
Yes
I was wondering is the white dwarf the core exposed or is it a new type of star created by all the processes causing a star to expand.
If that makes sense.
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
Our sun will become a white dwarf after the red giant phase.
Yes
I was wondering is the white dwarf the core exposed or is it a new type of star created by all the processes causing a star to expand.
If that makes sense.
new type of star.
Bogsnorkler said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Our sun will become a white dwarf after the red giant phase.
Yes
I was wondering is the white dwarf the core exposed or is it a new type of star created by all the processes causing a star to expand.
If that makes sense.
new type of star.
Thanks
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
The moons of them might.
They are exciting the moons of the Jupiter and Saturn for the prospect of life
Could have life floating in the clouds of the gas giants as well
It is fascinating.
The goldilocks zone will eventually move outwards, then it will contract again.
And planetary models that are accurate could be used to look at other developing solar systems.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
The moons of them might.
They are exciting the moons of the Jupiter and Saturn for the prospect of life
Could have life floating in the clouds of the gas giants as well
It is fascinating.
The goldilocks zone will eventually move outwards, then it will contract again.
And planetary models that are accurate could be used to look at other developing solar systems.
It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Cymek said:
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
There are no such things as black dwarfs. Snow White only had white dwarfs.
Woodie said:
Cymek said:
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
There are no such things as black dwarfs. Snow White only had white dwarfs.
Oi! Wot about the Red Dwarves?
Michael V said:
Woodie said:
Cymek said:
This reminds me
White dwarfs
Are they just the core of a standard sun type star or are they a result of the star expanding into a red giant and altered
There are no such things as black dwarfs. Snow White only had white dwarfs.
Oi! Wot about the Red Dwarves?
Smeg!!!!
Woodie said:
Michael V said:
Woodie said:There are no such things as black dwarfs. Snow White only had white dwarfs.
Oi! Wot about the Red Dwarves?
Smeg!!!!
:)
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Cymek said:The moons of them might.
They are exciting the moons of the Jupiter and Saturn for the prospect of life
Could have life floating in the clouds of the gas giants as well
It is fascinating.
The goldilocks zone will eventually move outwards, then it will contract again.
And planetary models that are accurate could be used to look at other developing solar systems.
It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:It is fascinating.
The goldilocks zone will eventually move outwards, then it will contract again.
And planetary models that are accurate could be used to look at other developing solar systems.
It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
Peak Warming Man said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
we’ve only just begun…
Peak Warming Man said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
God’s one and only social experiment gone mad.
Bogsnorkler said:
Peak Warming Man said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
we’ve only just begun…
I’m calling it.
Peak Warming Man said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:It’s interesting to consider that other solar system goldilocks zones would also be moving over time.
Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
What information we have is only a fragment compared to what is available.
If we can find alternative ways you look for life then why not use them.
Having AI looking at Solar system modelling will be another way, out of many other ways.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Peak Warming Man said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Solar system modelling ✨️ could speed up the seti program.
SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
SETI gas only been running since 1960 with successive years adding more information.What information we have is only a fragment compared to what is available.
If we can find alternative ways you look for life then why not use them.
Having AI looking at Solar system modelling will be another way, out of many other ways.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems that all change over time.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Peak Warming Man said:SETI has drawn a blank, we are alone, quite alone.
SETI gas only been running since 1960 with successive years adding more information.What information we have is only a fragment compared to what is available.
If we can find alternative ways you look for life then why not use them.
Having AI looking at Solar system modelling will be another way, out of many other ways.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems that all change over time.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems where all their goldilocks zones change over time.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
We can’t reasonably predict where any of the planets will be in relation to the Sun in a few billion years, never mind whether any of them could support life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System
“…the Solar System is chaotic in the technical sense defined by mathematical chaos theory, and that chaotic behavior degrades even the most precise long-term numerical or analytic models for the orbital motion in the Solar System, so they cannot be valid beyond more than a few tens of millions of years into the past or future – about 1% its present age.
“The planets’ orbits are chaotic over longer time scales, in such a way that the whole Solar System possesses a Lyapunov time (the characteristic timescale on which a dynamical system is chaotic) in the range of 2~230 million years. In all cases, this means that the positions of individual planets along their orbits ultimately become impossible to predict with any certainty. In some cases, the orbits themselves may change dramatically. Such chaos manifests most strongly as changes in eccentricity, with some planets’ orbits becoming significantly more – or less – elliptical.”
esselte said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
We can’t reasonably predict where any of the planets will be in relation to the Sun in a few billion years, never mind whether any of them could support life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System
“…the Solar System is chaotic in the technical sense defined by mathematical chaos theory, and that chaotic behavior degrades even the most precise long-term numerical or analytic models for the orbital motion in the Solar System, so they cannot be valid beyond more than a few tens of millions of years into the past or future – about 1% its present age.
“The planets’ orbits are chaotic over longer time scales, in such a way that the whole Solar System possesses a Lyapunov time (the characteristic timescale on which a dynamical system is chaotic) in the range of 2~230 million years. In all cases, this means that the positions of individual planets along their orbits ultimately become impossible to predict with any certainty. In some cases, the orbits themselves may change dramatically. Such chaos manifests most strongly as changes in eccentricity, with some planets’ orbits becoming significantly more – or less – elliptical.”
So no, there are no reliable models regarding your inquiry. It’s entirely possible that the outer planets might have become the inner planets, or have wildly eccentric orbits, or have been ejected from the System entirely, by the time the Sun becomes a red giant.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:SETI gas only been running since 1960 with successive years adding more information.
What information we have is only a fragment compared to what is available.
If we can find alternative ways you look for life then why not use them.
Having AI looking at Solar system modelling will be another way, out of many other ways.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems that all change over time.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems where all their goldilocks zones change over time.
Someone could look at a particular stars goldilocks zone and reason that it is unsuitable for life at the present time, but run the solar system further into the future where it’s star changes the conditions to become suitable. 😉 is a different result.
OTOH who knows what the situation will be 5 billion years from now. Maybe humans or their descendents will have completely restructured the solar system, or even the sun itself.
esselte said:
esselte said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Are there any solar system models that run time into the future to see what the planets will look like in the future?For example, eventually the sun will become a red giant, is it possible then that the outer planets might develop life?
We can’t reasonably predict where any of the planets will be in relation to the Sun in a few billion years, never mind whether any of them could support life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System
“…the Solar System is chaotic in the technical sense defined by mathematical chaos theory, and that chaotic behavior degrades even the most precise long-term numerical or analytic models for the orbital motion in the Solar System, so they cannot be valid beyond more than a few tens of millions of years into the past or future – about 1% its present age.
“The planets’ orbits are chaotic over longer time scales, in such a way that the whole Solar System possesses a Lyapunov time (the characteristic timescale on which a dynamical system is chaotic) in the range of 2~230 million years. In all cases, this means that the positions of individual planets along their orbits ultimately become impossible to predict with any certainty. In some cases, the orbits themselves may change dramatically. Such chaos manifests most strongly as changes in eccentricity, with some planets’ orbits becoming significantly more – or less – elliptical.”
So no, there are no reliable models regarding your inquiry. It’s entirely possible that the outer planets might have become the inner planets, or have wildly eccentric orbits, or have been ejected from the System entirely, by the time the Sun becomes a red giant.
When our sun becomes a red giant it’s goldilocks zone will change moving outwards with the sun’s growing size.
This will mean the moons of the outer planets will warm up,
What’s interesting will be the time interval, say its over millions of years, this might give life a start on those moons.
I know it’s quite a big maybe, but so are we.
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
Tau.Neutrino said:Consider that there are trillions of solar systems that all change over time.
Consider that there are trillions of solar systems where all their goldilocks zones change over time.
Someone could look at a particular stars goldilocks zone and reason that it is unsuitable for life at the present time, but run the solar system further into the future where it’s star changes the conditions to become suitable. 😉 is a different result.
Reckon that there are more interesting solar systems than ours?
Tau.Neutrino said:
esselte said:
esselte said:We can’t reasonably predict where any of the planets will be in relation to the Sun in a few billion years, never mind whether any of them could support life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System
“…the Solar System is chaotic in the technical sense defined by mathematical chaos theory, and that chaotic behavior degrades even the most precise long-term numerical or analytic models for the orbital motion in the Solar System, so they cannot be valid beyond more than a few tens of millions of years into the past or future – about 1% its present age.
“The planets’ orbits are chaotic over longer time scales, in such a way that the whole Solar System possesses a Lyapunov time (the characteristic timescale on which a dynamical system is chaotic) in the range of 2~230 million years. In all cases, this means that the positions of individual planets along their orbits ultimately become impossible to predict with any certainty. In some cases, the orbits themselves may change dramatically. Such chaos manifests most strongly as changes in eccentricity, with some planets’ orbits becoming significantly more – or less – elliptical.”
So no, there are no reliable models regarding your inquiry. It’s entirely possible that the outer planets might have become the inner planets, or have wildly eccentric orbits, or have been ejected from the System entirely, by the time the Sun becomes a red giant.
When our sun becomes a red giant it’s goldilocks zone will change moving outwards with the sun’s growing size.
This will mean the moons of the outer planets will warm up,
What’s interesting will be the time interval, say its over millions of years, this might give life a start on those moons.
I know it’s quite a big maybe, but so are we.
There’s no guarantee that the Sun will even have planets (outer or otherwise, with moons or otherwise) orbiting it by the time the Sun becomes a red giant. It’s possible all the planets will have been ejected from the System by then. It’s possible that Earth will be the outermost planet and Jupiter the innermost. You are thinking too much in terms of the planetary positions being “clockwork”-like. I mean, they are clockwork-like, but this is a mechanical system. Even the most accurately engineered clock isn’t going to be anything close to accurate over a time-span of billions of years.
esselte said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
esselte said:So no, there are no reliable models regarding your inquiry. It’s entirely possible that the outer planets might have become the inner planets, or have wildly eccentric orbits, or have been ejected from the System entirely, by the time the Sun becomes a red giant.
When our sun becomes a red giant it’s goldilocks zone will change moving outwards with the sun’s growing size.
This will mean the moons of the outer planets will warm up,
What’s interesting will be the time interval, say its over millions of years, this might give life a start on those moons.
I know it’s quite a big maybe, but so are we.
There’s no guarantee that the Sun will even have planets (outer or otherwise, with moons or otherwise) orbiting it by the time the Sun becomes a red giant. It’s possible all the planets will have been ejected from the System by then. It’s possible that Earth will be the outermost planet and Jupiter the innermost. You are thinking too much in terms of the planetary positions being “clockwork”-like. I mean, they are clockwork-like, but this is a mechanical system. Even the most accurately engineered clock isn’t going to be anything close to accurate over a time-span of billions of years.
I don’t think you are accurately conceptualizing how planetary systems exist. They are not stable over long time periods.
Take The Grand Track Hypothesis for example.
In planetary astronomy, the grand tack hypothesis proposes that Jupiter formed at a distance of 3.5 AU from the Sun, then migrated inward to 1.5 AU, before reversing course due to capturing Saturn in an orbital resonance, eventually halting near its current orbit at 5.2 AU. The reversal of Jupiter’s planetary migration is likened to the path of a sailboat changing directions (tacking) as it travels against the wind.
The planetesimal disk is truncated at 1.0 AU by Jupiter’s migration, limiting the material available to form Mars. Jupiter twice crosses the asteroid belt, scattering asteroids outward then inward. The resulting asteroid belt has a small mass, a wide range of inclinations and eccentricities, and a population originating from both inside and outside Jupiter’s original orbit. Debris produced by collisions among planetesimals swept ahead of Jupiter may have driven an early generation of planets into the Sun.
esselte said:
Tau.Neutrino said:
esselte said:So no, there are no reliable models regarding your inquiry. It’s entirely possible that the outer planets might have become the inner planets, or have wildly eccentric orbits, or have been ejected from the System entirely, by the time the Sun becomes a red giant.
When our sun becomes a red giant it’s goldilocks zone will change moving outwards with the sun’s growing size.
This will mean the moons of the outer planets will warm up,
What’s interesting will be the time interval, say its over millions of years, this might give life a start on those moons.
I know it’s quite a big maybe, but so are we.
There’s no guarantee that the Sun will even have planets (outer or otherwise, with moons or otherwise) orbiting it by the time the Sun becomes a red giant. It’s possible all the planets will have been ejected from the System by then. It’s possible that Earth will be the outermost planet and Jupiter the innermost. You are thinking too much in terms of the planetary positions being “clockwork”-like. I mean, they are clockwork-like, but this is a mechanical system. Even the most accurately engineered clock isn’t going to be anything close to accurate over a time-span of billions of years.
Yes you are right, and this is what solar system modelling would figure out.
Tau.Neutrino said:
esselte said:
Tau.Neutrino said:When our sun becomes a red giant it’s goldilocks zone will change moving outwards with the sun’s growing size.
This will mean the moons of the outer planets will warm up,
What’s interesting will be the time interval, say its over millions of years, this might give life a start on those moons.
I know it’s quite a big maybe, but so are we.
There’s no guarantee that the Sun will even have planets (outer or otherwise, with moons or otherwise) orbiting it by the time the Sun becomes a red giant. It’s possible all the planets will have been ejected from the System by then. It’s possible that Earth will be the outermost planet and Jupiter the innermost. You are thinking too much in terms of the planetary positions being “clockwork”-like. I mean, they are clockwork-like, but this is a mechanical system. Even the most accurately engineered clock isn’t going to be anything close to accurate over a time-span of billions of years.
Yes you are right, and this is what solar system modelling would figure out.
Figuring out when the Moon will eclipse the Sun next, and where that eclipse will best be viewed from on Earth is a very different prospect to modelling the Solar System over billions of years. Again, from the link I gave earlier: “…that chaotic behavior degrades even the most precise long-term numerical or analytic models for the orbital motion in the Solar System, so they cannot be valid beyond more than a few tens of millions of years into the past or future – about 1% its present age.” We can not take the current position and motion of the planets and accurately model that back more than “a few tens of millions of years” into the past, or model it forward more than “a few tens of millions of years” into the future. The Sun is due to become a red giant 5 billion years from now. This is a time period orders of magnitude greater than the few tens of millions of years that our models can make reasonable predictions about.