A super El Niño wiped out millions of people in 1877. Are we better prepared now?
The climatic phenomenon is expected to return this year, but a lot has changed since what might have been the worst environmental disaster in human history.
May 12, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDT Yesterday at 5:00 a.m. EDT 5 min
The most intense El Niño event on record, which occurred from 1877 to 1878, contributed to famine that caused global population losses of 3 to 4 percent. (Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF/NOAA)
By Ben Noll
As chances rise for one of the strongest El Niño events on record later this year, the potential for dangerous conditions has prompted comparisons to 1877, when such an event drove catastrophe around the globe.
El Niño is a warming of ocean waters in the east-central tropical Pacific that develops every few years. This year, ocean temperatures there could surge 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average and break records.
The climatic shift devastated crops nearly 150 years ago, raising the question of whether a similar disruption could threaten global food security yet again.
The strongest El Niño on record from 1877 to 1878 fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere. That was 3 to 4 percent of the estimated global population at the time, equal to at least 250 million people if it happened today.