Isn’t it sort of within the range of common sense, or ‘good sense’ perhaps, based on population, fuel burned etc to go to ‘it’s highly likely’, so really it’s a question of how bad it is going to be and how things pan out over time given this or that.
I mean soon as you cut the grass in your yard or knock a tree down the climate on the ground and around that area changes. In fact just pruning a tree changes things.
I think there’s a paradox about the modern world, probably reflective of other paradoxes regards what motivates the human species. Our endeavours make the world smaller.
What is emerging is a hyperprolific higher species (conscious apparently), that being us humans.
The trouble I believe is that sex is mostly for reproduction (that’s the thrust of its purpose), so what’s maybe needed is a more recreational activity. Things have evolved that may tend us to feel sex is recreational, but I am not sure of that as it seems to guarantee a steady stream of death.
Humans I think need to develop an appreciation of the never-to-be-born-unborn. What could have been that never will be physically realized, and point their envies in that direction.
For this sort of thing to work a family may have one child, and have three also given names that will never be of this immediate physical world. There wont be any education costs or earthly worries that come with these special children, they can be anything.
I really can’t see any other way.