Deep Oceans Are Cooling Amidst A Sea of Modelling Uncertainty:
New Research on Ocean Heat Content
2014
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

Two of the world’s premiere ocean scientists, Carl Wunsch – Harvard and Patrick Heimbach – MIT, have addressed the data limitations that
currently prevent the oceanographic community from resolving the differences among various estimates of changing ocean heat content.

As a by-product of that analysis Wunsch and Heimbach (2014)
1) determined the deepest oceans are cooling
2) estimated a much slower rate of ocean warming
3) highlighted where the greatest uncertainties existed due to the ever changing locations of heating and cooling
4) specified concerns with previous methods used to construct changes in ocean heat content, such as Balmaseda and Trenberth’s re-
analysis.

Their results (Figure 18. below) suggest a flattening or slight cooling in the upper 100 meters since 2004, in agreement with the -0.04 Watts/m2
cooling reported by Lyman (2014).6 The consensus of previous researchers has been that temperatures in the upper 300 meters have flattened
or cooled since 2003,4 while Wunsch and Heimbach (2014) found the upper 700 meters still warmed up to 2009.

The deep layers contain twice as much heat as the upper 100 meters, and overall exhibit a clear cooling trend for the past 2 decades. Unlike the
upper layers, which are dominated by the annual cycle of heating and cooling, they argue that deep ocean trends must be viewed as part of the
ocean’s long term memory which is still responding to “meteorological forcing of decades to thousands of years ago”.

Wunsch and Heimbach concluded that much less heat is being added to the oceans compared to claims in previous studies.

Due to the constant time-varying heat transport, regions of warming are usually compensated by regions of cooling as illustrated in their Figure
15 below. It offers a wonderful visualization of the current state of those natural ocean oscillations by comparing changes in heat content between
1992 and 2011. Those patterns of heat re-distributions evolve enormous amounts of heat and that makes detection of changes in heat content
that are many magnitudes smaller extremely difficult. Again any uneven sampling regime in time or space, would result in “artificial changes in
the global average”.

Most interesting is the observed cooling throughout the upper 700 meters of the Arctic. There have been 2 competing explanations for the
unusually warm Arctic air temperature that heavily weights the global average. CO2 driven hypotheses argue global warming has reduced polar
sea ice that previously reflected sunlight, and now the exposed dark waters are absorbing more heat and raising water and air temperatures.
But clearly a cooling upper Arctic Ocean suggests any absorbed heat is insignificant. Despite greater inflows of warm Atlantic water, declining
heat content of the upper 700 meters supports the competing hypothesis that warmer Arctic air temperatures are, at least in part, the result of
increased ventilation of heat that was previously trapped by a thick insulating ice cover.7 That second hypothesis is also in agreement with
extensive observations that Arctic air temperatures had been cooling in the 80s and 90s. Warming occurred after subfreezing winds,
re‑directed by the Arctic Oscillation, drove thick multi-year ice out from the Arctic.11

2,000 m to thre bottom

Study. . . . . . . . . . . . Years Examined . . . . Watts/m2
Hansen 2005. . . . . . . . . . . 1993-2003. . . . . . . . 0.86 +/- 0.12
Lyman 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . 1993-2008. . . . . . .. 0.64 +/- 0.11
von Schuckmann 2011. . . . . 2005-2010. . . . . . . 0.54 +/- 0.1
Wunsch 2014. . . . . . . . . . . 1992-2011. . . . . . . 0.2 +/- 0.1

If Balmaseda and Trenberth’s model of deep ocean warming was correct, any increase in ocean heat content must have occurred between 700
and 2000 meters, but the mechanisms that would warm that “middle layer” remains elusive. In order to support their contention that the deep
ocean has been dramatically absorbing heat, Balmaseda/Trenberth must provide a mechanism and the regional observations where heat has
been carried from the surface to those depths. But few are to be found. Warming at great depths and simultaneous cooling of the surface is
antithetical to climate models predictions.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/21/deep-oceans-are-cooling-amidst-a-sea-of-modeling-uncertainty-new-research-on-ocean-heat-content/

Bidecadal Thermal Changes in the Abyssal Ocean
Carl Wunsch. Patrick Heimbach
http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/heatcontentchange_26dec2013_ph.pdf

http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/#C.%20Wunsch%20and%20P.%20Heimbach,%202014,%20Bidecadal%20thermal%20change%20in%20the%20abyssal%20ocean,%20in%20press,%20J.%20Phys.%20Oc.,%20(pdf)

Gosh that’s hard to read with the line breaks cut-n-pasted too, leaving short and long lines. I cannot make sense of it.

Michael V said:

Gosh that’s hard to read with the line breaks cut-n-pasted too, leaving short and long lines. I cannot make sense of it.

try reading the link then moron

Hopefully this re-eding will make your contribution more readable:

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

Deep Oceans Are Cooling Amidst A Sea of Modelling Uncertainty: New Research on Ocean Heat Content 2014

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

Two of the world’s premiere ocean scientists, Carl Wunsch – Harvard and Patrick Heimbach – MIT, have addressed the data limitations that currently prevent the oceanographic community from resolving the differences among various estimates of changing ocean heat content.

As a by-product of that analysis Wunsch and Heimbach (2014)
1) determined the deepest oceans are cooling
2) estimated a much slower rate of ocean warming
3) highlighted where the greatest uncertainties existed due to the ever changing locations of heating and cooling
4) specified concerns with previous methods used to construct changes in ocean heat content, such as Balmaseda and Trenberth’s re-analysis.

Their results (Figure 18. below) suggest a flattening or slight cooling in the upper 100 meters since 2004, in agreement with the -0.04 Watts/m2 cooling reported by Lyman (2014).6 The consensus of previous researchers has been that temperatures in the upper 300 meters have flattened or cooled since 2003,4 while Wunsch and Heimbach (2014) found the upper 700 meters still warmed up to 2009.

The deep layers contain twice as much heat as the upper 100 meters, and overall exhibit a clear cooling trend for the past 2 decades. Unlike the upper layers, which are dominated by the annual cycle of heating and cooling, they argue that deep ocean trends must be viewed as part of the ocean’s long term memory which is still responding to “meteorological forcing of decades to thousands of years ago”.

Wunsch and Heimbach concluded that much less heat is being added to the oceans compared to claims in previous studies.

Due to the constant time-varying heat transport, regions of warming are usually compensated by regions of cooling as illustrated in their Figure 15 below. It offers a wonderful visualization of the current state of those natural ocean oscillations by comparing changes in heat content between 1992 and 2011. Those patterns of heat re-distributions evolve enormous amounts of heat and that makes detection of changes in heat content that are many magnitudes smaller extremely difficult. Again any uneven sampling regime in time or space, would result in “artificial changes in the global average”.

Most interesting is the observed cooling throughout the upper 700 meters of the Arctic. There have been 2 competing explanations for the unusually warm Arctic air temperature that heavily weights the global average. CO2 driven hypotheses argue global warming has reduced polar sea ice that previously reflected sunlight, and now the exposed dark waters are absorbing more heat and raising water and air temperatures.

But clearly a cooling upper Arctic Ocean suggests any absorbed heat is insignificant. Despite greater inflows of warm Atlantic water, declining heat content of the upper 700 meters supports the competing hypothesis that warmer Arctic air temperatures are, at least in part, the result of increased ventilation of heat that was previously trapped by a thick insulating ice cover. That second hypothesis is also in agreement with extensive observations that Arctic air temperatures had been cooling in the 80s and 90s. Warming occurred after subfreezing winds, re‑directed by the Arctic Oscillation, drove thick multi-year ice out from the Arctic.

2,000 m to thre bottom

Study. . . . . . . . . . . . Years Examined . . . . Watts/m2
Hansen 2005. . . . . . . . . . . 1993-2003. . . . . . . . 0.86 +/- 0.12
Lyman 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . 1993-2008. . . . . . .. 0.64 +/- 0.11
von Schuckmann 2011. . . . . 2005-2010. . . . . . . 0.54 +/- 0.1
Wunsch 2014. . . . . . . . . . . 1992-2011. . . . . . . 0.2 +/- 0.1

If Balmaseda and Trenberth’s model of deep ocean warming was correct, any increase in ocean heat content must have occurred between 700 and 2000 meters, but the mechanisms that would warm that “middle layer” remains elusive. In order to support their contention that the deep ocean has been dramatically absorbing heat, Balmaseda/Trenberth must provide a mechanism and the regional observations where heat has been carried from the surface to those depths. But few are to be found. Warming at great depths and simultaneous cooling of the surface is antithetical to climate models predictions.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/21/deep-oceans-are-cooling-amidst-a-sea-of-modeling-uncertainty-new-research-on-ocean-heat-content/

Bidecadal Thermal Changes in the Abyssal Ocean
Carl Wunsch. Patrick Heimbach

http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/heatcontentchange_26dec2013_ph.pdf

http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/#C.%20Wunsch%20and%20P.%20Heimbach,%202014,%20Bidecadal%20thermal%20change%20in%20the%20abyssal%20ocean,%20in%20press,%20J.%20Phys.%20Oc.,%20(pdf)

Michael V said:

Hopefully this re-eding will make your contribution more readable:

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

fail

&

>>editing<<

what you need is a printer.

ChrispenEvan said:

what you need is a printer.

or an attention span

The_observer said:

Michael V said:

Gosh that’s hard to read with the line breaks cut-n-pasted too, leaving short and long lines. I cannot make sense of it.

try reading the link then moron

That attack was completely and utterly unwarranted. I am highly offended by your name-calling, and request that you withdraw your quite nasty remark. You will have noted by now that I have tried to re-edit your contribution to make it more readable – I had made no attack on you. I was, indeed, trying to be helpful.

well i can help you with the printer bit cos i am one but you’ll have to work on your attention span yourself.

Michael V said:

The_observer said:

Michael V said:

Gosh that’s hard to read with the line breaks cut-n-pasted too, leaving short and long lines. I cannot make sense of it.

try reading the link then moron

That attack was completely and utterly unwarranted. I am highly offended by your name-calling, and request that you withdraw your quite nasty remark. You will have noted by now that I have tried to re-edit your contribution to make it more readable – I had made no attack on you. I was, indeed, trying to be helpful.

there was absolutely nothing wrong with the original post,

The_observer said:

Michael V said:

Hopefully this re-eding will make your contribution more readable:

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

fail

&

>>editing<<

Thanks for your contribution. I see you think my assistance to be counterproductive.

Michael V said:

The_observer said:

Michael V said:

Hopefully this re-eding will make your contribution more readable:

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

fail

&

>>editing<<

Thanks for your contribution. I see you think my assistance to be counterproductive.

counterproductive xx – counter-productive – counter productive

Michael V said:

The_observer said:

Michael V said:

Hopefully this re-eding will make your contribution more readable:

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

fail

&

>>editing<<

Thanks for your contribution. I see you think my assistance to be counterproductive.

Here from Jim Steele’s own mouth. Guess he has always been a climate change sceptic denier.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University.
David Attenborough was my favorite wildlife cinematographer and each year I fed my students numerous clips to make biology and ecology come alive. Researching the plight of the polar bears, I began to worry that “my hero” had decided to use his spectacular wildlife videos to promote catastrophic climate change.
http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2014/05/29/the-recruit/

PermeateFree said:

Michael V said:

The_observer said:

fail

&

>>editing<<

Thanks for your contribution. I see you think my assistance to be counterproductive.

Here from Jim Steele’s own mouth. Guess he has always been a climate change sceptic denier.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University.
David Attenborough was my favorite wildlife cinematographer and each year I fed my students numerous clips to make biology and ecology come alive. Researching the plight of the polar bears, I began to worry that “my hero” had decided to use his spectacular wildlife videos to promote catastrophic climate change.
http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2014/05/29/the-recruit/

just the usual crap from you Perv. try refuting what he says.

but the facts don’t matter when your religion is environmentalism

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Michael V said:

Thanks for your contribution. I see you think my assistance to be counterproductive.

Here from Jim Steele’s own mouth. Guess he has always been a climate change sceptic denier.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University.
David Attenborough was my favorite wildlife cinematographer and each year I fed my students numerous clips to make biology and ecology come alive. Researching the plight of the polar bears, I began to worry that “my hero” had decided to use his spectacular wildlife videos to promote catastrophic climate change.
http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2014/05/29/the-recruit/

just the usual crap from you Perv. try refuting what he says.

but the facts don’t matter when your religion is environmentalism

When you consider your fellow deniers like Monckton, Abbott, etc., you must treat what you say with a great deal of caution.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Here from Jim Steele’s own mouth. Guess he has always been a climate change sceptic denier.

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University.
David Attenborough was my favorite wildlife cinematographer and each year I fed my students numerous clips to make biology and ecology come alive. Researching the plight of the polar bears, I began to worry that “my hero” had decided to use his spectacular wildlife videos to promote catastrophic climate change.
http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2014/05/29/the-recruit/

just the usual crap from you Perv. try refuting what he says.

but the facts don’t matter when your religion is environmentalism

When you consider your fellow deniers like Monckton, Abbott, etc., you must treat what you say with a great deal of caution.

Oh, why don’t you just fuck off dip shit

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

just the usual crap from you Perv. try refuting what he says.

but the facts don’t matter when your religion is environmentalism

When you consider your fellow deniers like Monckton, Abbott, etc., you must treat what you say with a great deal of caution.

Oh, why don’t you just fuck off dip shit

When you shovel shite in Observer, you get shite out.

>Researching the plight of the polar bears,

so, what did happen to the polar bears between 9000 and 6000 years ago, when the artic sea ice extent was much less than at present?

morrie said:

>Researching the plight of the polar bears,

so, what did happen to the polar bears between 9000 and 6000 years ago, when the artic sea ice extent was much less than at present?

this

morrie said:

>Researching the plight of the polar bears,

so, what did happen to the polar bears between 9000 and 6000 years ago, when the artic sea ice extent was much less than at present?

I’d be more interested in how they got along during the past two ice ages when 2km thick ice covered
so much of the northern hemisphere & sea level was 160 metres lower

probably moved south along with their prey.

> Deep Oceans Are Cooling

Well, the possibly explains why we haven’t seen the expected amount of sea level rise.

mollwollfumble said:

> Deep Oceans Are Cooling

Well, the possibly explains why we haven’t seen the expected amount of sea level rise.

Ocean currents need more research. Particularly now that different temperature masses are involved.

roughbarked said:

morrie said:

>Researching the plight of the polar bears,

so, what did happen to the polar bears between 9000 and 6000 years ago, when the artic sea ice extent was much less than at present?

this

Missed this response.

Interesting. So do you think that the polar bear is a relative newcomer and that has evolved into its current niche as the ice slowly expanded over the last 6000 years, and before that might have been more like the brown bear, with a more temperate range?

morrie said:

roughbarked said:

morrie said:

>Researching the plight of the polar bears,

so, what did happen to the polar bears between 9000 and 6000 years ago, when the artic sea ice extent was much less than at present?

this

Missed this response.

Interesting. So do you think that the polar bear is a relative newcomer and that has evolved into its current niche as the ice slowly expanded over the last 6000 years, and before that might have been more like the brown bear, with a more temperate range?

was only quoting what I found with your question.