Horses are unemployable through no fault of their own
a very good (15 min) YouTube video on the inevitability of automation
Interesting, but those doing the most humanly creative work (art, music, literature etc) are not likely to be replaced by machines any time soon (although we use an increasing variety of machines in our work). Maybe when humans themselves evolve into machines, if that ever happens.
BTW him saying that “callng automated cars “cars” is like calling cars “horseless carriages”“ is a bit naive, given that “car” is just short for “carriage” and was in use before motor cars were invented.
>..carriage” and was in use before motor cars were invented..”
sorta evolved, carriages with steam engines, then internal combustion engines…..
diddly-squat said:
Horses are unemployable through no fault of their owna very good (15 min) YouTube video on the inevitability of automation
Well it’s worth watching and thinking about, but I wouldn’t call it very good.
He’s applying 20th Century thinking to a 21st Century phenomenon. The real question should not be how we will deal with the problem of finding employment for people, but rather how will we make best use of the opportunities that arise when most people don’t need to spend most of their waking lives doing something they would rather not be doing.
The Rev Dodgson said:
He’s applying 20th Century thinking to a 21st Century phenomenon. The real question should not be how we will deal with the problem of finding employment for people, but rather how will we make best use of the opportunities that arise when most people don’t need to spend most of their waking lives doing something they would rather not be doing.
I think his claim is that this is the mistake that society is still making – that the economy needs fewer and fewer humans but we haven’t yet made any real attempt to adjust to a post-human economy.
His example of music “created by a machine” is pretty feeble and it’s stuff everyone’s familar with – getting software to put together ambient arpeggios etc. The reason machines can do that is ‘cos it’s not “new”, it’s just rearranging things that have already been explored. It’s the creative imagination coming up with work that is both new and humanly meaningful that requires a particularly creative human CNS. It’s not “magic”, it’s just beyond the capacity of any machine that’s yet been devised. That may not always be the case.
He points out that creative artists are only a tiny proportion of the “workforce” anyway, but he’s looking at all of this from an economic perspective. It’s long been the case in the arts that there are people who work for the sake of the work, not for money. Those who make the most money in the fields of music, art, etc have long been people producing popular junk of little or no consequence to high culture. Your Justin Biebers and Mileys etc could easily be replaced by pop music software already, at least in terms of the music they make, because there’s nothing original about it.
The Rev Dodgson said:
diddly-squat said:
Horses are unemployable through no fault of their owna very good (15 min) YouTube video on the inevitability of automation
Well it’s worth watching and thinking about, but I wouldn’t call it very good.
He’s applying 20th Century thinking to a 21st Century phenomenon. The real question should not be how we will deal with the problem of finding employment for people, but rather how will we make best use of the opportunities that arise when most people don’t need to spend most of their waking lives doing something they would rather not be doing.
Nice to see you back Mr Marx..
I look forward to this sunlit upland where the proletariat doesn’t need to work anymore ;)
If horses are unemployable, what are they all doing with themselves?
The answer is that many provide entertainment for the rich and idle (and their kids) and many provide food.
There’s probably a message there somewhere.
The Rev Dodgson said:
If horses are unemployable, what are they all doing with themselves?
The answer is that many provide entertainment for the rich and idle (and their kids) and many provide food.
There’s probably a message there somewhere.
mmmm poor people.
The Rev Dodgson said:
If horses are unemployable, what are they all doing with themselves?
..The answer is that many provide entertainment for the rich and idle (and their kids) and many provide food.
There’s probably a message there somewhere.
lol :)
indeed..
That graph should really include from WWI onwards, how many horses died in both world wars at part of conscripted military service.
Cymek said:
That graph should really include from WWI onwards, how many horses died in both world wars at part of conscripted military service.
Millions, but the Western urban horse population peaked in 1915 and has been falling since.
>I look forward to this sunlit upland where the proletariat doesn’t need to work anymore ;)
Ex-proletariat. They won’t be able to work because they’ll be surplus to the economy, as many already are. But the economy will still be dependent on a big, cashed-up consumer class, unless it shrinks significantly.
Bubblecar said:
>I look forward to this sunlit upland where the proletariat doesn’t need to work anymore ;)Ex-proletariat. They won’t be able to work because they’ll be surplus to the economy, as many already are. But the economy will still be dependent on a big, cashed-up consumer class, unless it shrinks significantly.
wealth is concentrating at a ridiculous rate anyway….
averaghe real wages in 1st world countries are stagnant or decreasing, where as the hyper-wealthy are raking it in..
Bubblecar said:
Cymek said:
That graph should really include from WWI onwards, how many horses died in both world wars at part of conscripted military service.
Millions, but the Western urban horse population peaked in 1915 and has been falling since.
Well that’s what he said, but the graph shows that that is not actually true.
Yes but presumably there’ll come time when the economy itself is no longer sustainable because there’ll be too few people with money to spend. It’s hard to see economic growth being sustained solely by tiny numbers of super-rich, while everyone else lives in increasing poverty.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Bubblecar said:
Cymek said:
That graph should really include from WWI onwards, how many horses died in both world wars at part of conscripted military service.
Millions, but the Western urban horse population peaked in 1915 and has been falling since.
Well that’s what he said, but the graph shows that that is not actually true.
That’s a graph of global horse population.
Bubblecar said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
Bubblecar said:Millions, but the Western urban horse population peaked in 1915 and has been falling since.
Well that’s what he said, but the graph shows that that is not actually true.
That’s a graph of global horse population.
OK, but it’s the global horse population that is relevant to the point being made. Singling out Western urban horses is just cherry picking (or whatever fruits is appropriate to reverse cherry picking).
The Rev Dodgson said:
OK, but it’s the global horse population that is relevant to the point being made. Singling out Western urban horses is just cherry picking (or whatever fruits is appropriate to reverse cherry picking).
Not really, the point being made about horses was in relation to their value to modern economies (which by the early 20th century was largely a matter of urban transport).
Bubblecar said:
Yes but presumably there’ll come time when the economy itself is no longer sustainable because there’ll be too few people with money to spend. It’s hard to see economic growth being sustained solely by tiny numbers of super-rich, while everyone else lives in increasing poverty.
Distribution of wealth, volume of work available, and proportion of that work performed by humans, are three separate issues. Certainly increasing use of machines in areas that were previously human dominated will raise many problems, but there is no reason why it should result in ever increasing wealth of a small minority at the expense of the rest.
The current changes in wealth distribution are driven by politics, not technological developments.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Bubblecar said:
Yes but presumably there’ll come time when the economy itself is no longer sustainable because there’ll be too few people with money to spend. It’s hard to see economic growth being sustained solely by tiny numbers of super-rich, while everyone else lives in increasing poverty.
Distribution of wealth, volume of work available, and proportion of that work performed by humans, are three separate issues. Certainly increasing use of machines in areas that were previously human dominated will raise many problems, but there is no reason why it should result in ever increasing wealth of a small minority at the expense of the rest.
The current changes in wealth distribution are driven by politics, not technological developments.
I agree, but as the video indicates at the end, those problems are going to require significant changes to the way people think about economic participation and wealth distribution etc.
The Rev Dodgson said:
Bubblecar said:
Yes but presumably there’ll come time when the economy itself is no longer sustainable because there’ll be too few people with money to spend. It’s hard to see economic growth being sustained solely by tiny numbers of super-rich, while everyone else lives in increasing poverty.
Distribution of wealth, volume of work available, and proportion of that work performed by humans, are three separate issues. Certainly increasing use of machines in areas that were previously human dominated will raise many problems, but there is no reason why it should result in ever increasing wealth of a small minority at the expense of the rest.
The current changes in wealth distribution are driven by politics, not technological developments.
I feel a Schumpeter gale coming.
Wealth and power in heading back in the direction of kings and queens owning and controlling nearly everything worthwhile except we have the heads of enormous companies and super rich families instead, like the greats houses of The Landsraad in Dune. They’ll eventually have large semi-military security forces to maintain that power. Won’t be long if not already here were some companies have more income than the GDP of most nations
Bubblecar said:
I agree, but as the video indicates at the end, those problems are going to require significant changes to the way people think about economic participation and wealth distribution etc.
That point I totally agree with.
>> If horses are unemployable, what are they all doing with themselves?
Yes, the Rev’s graph showing only a very slight downward trend in horse numbers would appear to make a nonsense of the central motif the video.
Thats all we need now, Equine dole bludgers, getting pissed and smokeing dope.
>For example, mounted police horses are still effective for certain types of patrol duties and crowd control.
It’s about time they replaced those with robot horses.
Bubblecar said:
>For example, mounted police horses are still effective for certain types of patrol duties and crowd control.It’s about time they replaced those with robot horses.
Petrol driven wheeled horses
I prefer to drive things that can’t think for themselves.
Dropbear said:
Bubblecar said:
>For example, mounted police horses are still effective for certain types of patrol duties and crowd control.It’s about time they replaced those with robot horses.
Petrol driven wheeled horses
Tanks
Ian said:
Dropbear said:
Bubblecar said:
>For example, mounted police horses are still effective for certain types of patrol duties and crowd control.It’s about time they replaced those with robot horses.
Petrol driven wheeled horses
Tanks
Welcome
Divine Angel said:
I prefer to drive things that can’t think for themselves.
So you ride a horse…
Nobody’s denying that tanks have a role, but they’ll never replace cavalry.
Horses are the best means of exploring the less arid parts of the country, but alas there is little call for that these days, which is why there are vast tracks lacking detailed investigation.
And the standard breed have a birthday today.
Divine Angel said:
I prefer to drive things that can’t think for themselves.
When Leichardt the famous German explorer disappeared in the 19th century, many search parties went looking for him. One experienced bushy was released from prison for the purpose, he and a couple of other men went via the Grey Range in far south-western Queensland. He knew that Cooper Creek ran north to south from other explorations further north, so to save time headed directly west to intersect it.
Unfortunately, he did not realise the Cooper further south, turned west, so the group travelled for several days without finding it and did not turn back until virtually out of water. They made it back to the Grey Range, but were mad with thirst and drove their horses harder to reach water. In pure desperation they shoot their horses to drink their blood, but now on foot soon died.
The irony is, had they let their horse have their head and gone where they wish, they would have smelt the water and led them to it. The party died because they did not listen to their horses.
Bubblecar said:
Interesting, but those doing the most humanly creative work (art, music, literature etc) are not likely to be replaced by machines any time soon (although we use an increasing variety of machines in our work).
I’m really not convinced these are good examples of human creativity any more. I reckon I can think of bags of creative work in the sciences, business, and technology, that are much more creative than anything I’ve seen from the artistic community in a bloody long time.
And government! Wow!
You might not like it, but any human activity that can create, from nothing, for nothing, and producing nothing, some hundreds of millions of dollars worth of nothing, deserves to be deified as creativity beyond compare.
Rule 303 said:
Bubblecar said:Interesting, but those doing the most humanly creative work (art, music, literature etc) are not likely to be replaced by machines any time soon (although we use an increasing variety of machines in our work).I’m really not convinced these are good examples of human creativity any more. I reckon I can think of bags of creative work in the sciences, business, and technology, that are much more creative than anything I’ve seen from the artistic community in a bloody long time.
And government! Wow!
You might not like it, but any human activity that can create, from nothing, for nothing, and producing nothing, some hundreds of millions of dollars worth of nothing, deserves to be deified as creativity beyond compare.
Absolutely.
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
Witty Rejoinder said:
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
Number nine.. number nine
Witty Rejoinder said:
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
Will he run another ‘enquiry’ into the federal government’s home insulation rebate scheme? They’ve run nine now. The last one cost $20mil and produced absolutely nothing new. Nil. Zero. Zip. Thousands of pages, no output.
Witty Rejoinder said:
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
wookiemeister said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
I will be a fair leader but rule with a fist of iron
I’ve got a box full of rulers, all out of date because they are in inches.
wookiemeister said:
Witty Rejoinder said:
You two will miss the present regime when Wookie takes over…
I will be a fair leader but rule with a fist of iron
—
Here, have a “y”
the Australians don’t even know what’s coming poor buggers.
someone told me its going to cost 15,000 to do a TAFE diploma!!!
the kibbutz is the only way to go really for joe average but everyone’s been raised on some bullshit that if they work hard they’ll be ok.
Well horses are a 6 Billion industry in Oz.
“The contribution to GDP of the horse industry is estimated at over $6.3 billion, and if the value of volunteer labour is also included this pushes the contribution of the industry to almost $8 billion”
http://aqhrd.com.au/horse-industry-contribution/
Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.
Abraham Lincoln
Is a mandate, as a surplus of political capital, capable of overcoming financial capital?
It will be a very very long time before bots can handle or ride horses as well as humans.
And bots will never be capable of teaching humans in the same way as horses.
(shrugs) The participation rate in Australia is higher now than it was thirty years ago. The mass unemployment expected to be caused by automation didn’t occur.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/labor-force-participation-rate
dv said:
(shrugs) The participation rate in Australia is higher now than it was thirty years ago. The mass unemployment expected to be caused by automation didn’t occur.http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/labor-force-participation-rate
I read somewhere that some “expert” reckons in another couple of decades large numbers of people will be work in the area of transhumanist technology as a replacement for jobs lost in other areas
Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse
Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.
Food production continues to grow much faster than the population, and the rates are also diverging faster. Probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be obesity:
dv said:
Food production continues to grow much faster than the population, and the rates are also diverging faster. Probably the major global problem a hundred minutes from now in most countries will be obesity:
FTFY.
dv said:
Food production continues to grow much faster than the population, and the rates are also diverging faster. Probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be obesity:
No, probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be people extrapolating past trends and thinking they can go on for ever.
The Rev Dodgson said:
dv said:
Food production continues to grow much faster than the population, and the rates are also diverging faster. Probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be obesity:
No, probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be people extrapolating past trends and thinking they can go on for ever.
Humorous
The human population will evolve into static blobs of fat, tended by a global workforce of robots.
dv said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
dv said:
Food production continues to grow much faster than the population, and the rates are also diverging faster. Probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be obesity:
No, probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be people extrapolating past trends and thinking they can go on for ever.
Humorous
But I guess as we’ve discussed once or twice before, demographic modelling is not a matter of a simple extrapolation of past trends…
dv said:
dv said:
The Rev Dodgson said:No, probably the major global problem a hundred years from now will be people extrapolating past trends and thinking they can go on for ever.
Humorous
But I guess as we’ve discussed once or twice before, demographic modelling is not a matter of a simple extrapolation of past trends…
You are right. It’s a complicated extrapolation of past trends.
The Rev Dodgson said:
dv said:
dv said:Humorous
But I guess as we’ve discussed once or twice before, demographic modelling is not a matter of a simple extrapolation of past trends…
You are right. It’s a complicated extrapolation of past trends.
might work easier if it were simply trapolated?
Postpocelipse said:
The Rev Dodgson said:
dv said:But I guess as we’ve discussed once or twice before, demographic modelling is not a matter of a simple extrapolation of past trends…
You are right. It’s a complicated extrapolation of past trends.
might work easier if it were simply trapolated?
wookiemeister said:
Postpocelipse said:
The Rev Dodgson said:You are right. It’s a complicated extrapolation of past trends.
might work easier if it were simply trapolated?
Or polated
there is probably some Latin rule that requires a minimum number of syllables……..
wookiemeister said:
Postpocelipse said:
The Rev Dodgson said:You are right. It’s a complicated extrapolation of past trends.
might work easier if it were simply trapolated?
Or polated
Rev, your views with regard to the science of demographic projections are very different to your views on climate projectio, for instance.